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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

IM3 Projected US Data Center Locations

IM3 Projected US Data Center Locations This dataset contains model projections of new data center facilities in the contiguous United States (CONUS) through 2035 using the CERF – Data Centers model. Data center locations are modeled across four data center electricity demand growth scenarios (low, moderate, high, higher) and five market gravity scenarios (0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 100%). Projected locations are intended to be regional representations of feasible siting locations in the future to assess potential grid and water stress impacts. The data center load growth scenarios correspond with the rates outlined in EPRI (2024) and include 3.71%, 5%, 10%, and 15% annual growth of electricity demand for data centers from 2023 values in 37 states across the CONUS. Market gravity scenarios correspond to the relative importance of proximity to data center markets or high population areas compared to locational cost in the siting algorithm. 0% market gravity means that siting decisions were entirely determined by the locational cost in each feasible location. 100% market gravity means that only market proximity was considered when siting. Other scenarios have weight placed on both components where total weight always equals 100%. Locational cost is dependent on facility cooling type and corresponding electricity cost, taxes, and other factors. Facility cooling type is spatially determined where high water stress and/or areas with high summer wet bulb temperatures are assumed to operate with mechanical cooling for a higher fraction of the year rather than evaporative cooling. Feasible data center siting areas are based on geospatial suitability raster data developed with open-source information. The following areas are excluded from siting: Areas within 300 m of a federal airport runway or within an airport area boundary Waterbodies Areas with slope >16% Areas susceptible to sinkholes High coastal or inland flood risk areas Local, state, and federal parks, leisure areas, and cemeteries Areas >2 km away from electric substations Areas >5 km away from a municipal water supplier service area Areas >2 km away from high-speed fiber provider service territory USGS Protected Areas Database of the United States (PAD-US) GAP status 1, 2, or 3 areas US National Parks Wetlands USFWS critical habitats BIA land areas Railroads, major roadways, and minor roadways Military areas and training grounds NLCD developed lands Areas >0.8 km (0.5 miles) from NLCD developed lands Because we use open-source information, proprietary information that can influence siting decisions such as individual tax agreements with cities, detailed fiber line connectivity, electric grid power capacity agreements, and others, are not currently accounted for in the modeling process. Using specific building locations and footprints in the dataset for local planning purposes is not advised. Technical Information Geospatial data is provided in geojson format using the Albers Equal Area Conic (ESRI:102003) coordinate reference system. The datasets contain the following parameters: id - unique identification number within given scenario file growth_scenario – data center demand growth scenario market_gravity_weight – market gravity weight scenario (%) region – name of region (i.e., US State) total_cost_million_usd – locational siting cost ($million) campus_size_square_ft – total land acquired for data center facility (square ft) data_center_it_power_mw – IT power of data center facility (MW) mechanical_cooling_frac – fraction of year when data center uses mechanical cooling system water_cooling_frac– fraction of year when data center uses evaporative cooling system cooling_energy_demand_mwh – total annual facility energy demand for cooling (MWh) cooling_water_demand_mgy – total annual facility water demand for cooling (MG) cooling_water_consumption_mgy – total annual facility water consumed (MG) normalized_locational_cost – normalized total locational cost score for location normalized_gravity_score – normalized market gravity score for location weighted_siting_score – total weighted siting score of locational cost and gravity score geometry – polygon geometry of facility Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program. License This data is made available under a CCBY4.0 License Disclaimer This material was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor the United States Department of Energy, nor the Contractor, nor any or their employees, nor any jurisdiction or organization that has cooperated in the development of these materials, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness or any information, apparatus, product, software, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof, or Battelle Memorial Institute. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORYoperated byBATTELLEfor theUNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYunder Contract DE-AC05-76RL01830

Mongird, Kendall (ORCID:0000000328077088)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Mechanical Solution for Existing Conductors

The rapid growth in energy demand, driven by advancements in AI technology, renewable energy integration, and increased industrial activity, highlights the need for innovative solutions to improve the resiliency and efficiency of the power grid. This report details the fire testing of GridWrap’s Composite WiRe Wrap, to evaluate the wrap's ability to enhance conductor performance under wildfire-simulated conditions. Conductors were prepared and tested in a controlled environment at 400°C for 18 minutes, during which sag and temperature data were recorded. The results demonstrated that the unwrapped conductor sagged 3/16ths of an inch, while the WiRe Wrapped conductor sagged only 1/16th of an inch under identical conditions, indicating a significant improvement in mechanical performance. This project, conducted as part of a collaborative effort between BEA (Idaho National Laboratory’s managing contractor) and GridWrap, Inc., demonstrates the potential of grid-enhancing technologies like WiRe Wrap to reduce sag, increase grid resiliency, and support the future energy landscape. By validating the performance of such technologies in real-world scenarios, this work provides critical insights for industry adoption, benefiting both grid operators and U.S. taxpayers through improved reliability, reduced emissions, and enhanced energy delivery.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Unified Universal Control and Coordination of Inverter-Based Resources, and Validation for a PV + Battery Hybrid Plant

As renewable energy deployment grows, hybrid power plants (HPPs) combining photovoltaic (PV) and battery systems must evolve to offer both energy and grid stability services. These systems typically include a mix of grid-following (GFL) and grid-forming (GFM) inverters, presenting unique coordination and control challenges. This Department of Energy–funded project developed and validated a Unified Universal Control and Coordination (UUCC) framework for such PV + battery hybrid plants, enabling seamless and stable operation, including ultrafast black start, autonomous synchronization, and robust frequency and voltage regulation, under different grid conditions. The project significantly advanced the understanding of inverter-based resource (IBR) control by developing and validating three complementary system-level approaches for hybrid GFL/GFM operation: 1. A combined Virtual Resistance (VR)-based GFL and Virtual Oscillator Control (VOC)-based GFM method, where each inverter type is governed by a specialized control strategy. Together, these achieve stable, fast-response coordination, eliminating inrush current and enabling smooth black start and grid synchronization across a wide range of grid strengths. 2. A Deadbeat-based UUCC strategy, which uses discrete-time, switching-cycle-level control for both GFL and GFM inverters. This approach replaces traditional PI/PLL control with a control parameter-free, high-bandwidth framework that supports stable LVRT and instantaneous synchronization under all conditions. 3. A benchmark comparison with Siemens’ commercial GFM microgrid controller, which provided a fast baseline platform. The commercial approach decoupled v & f control was implemented on a commercial microgrid controller.The baseline commercial benchmark helped highlight superior transient response and black start performance offered by the deadbeat and VOC approaches. These technical contributions offer substantial improvements over conventional inverter control schemes, which often rely on slow phase-locked loop (PLL)-based synchronization, require careful control parameters tuning, and prone to unstable in weak grids with GFL inverters and in stiff grid with GFM inverters therefore challenging for hybrid GFL+GFM under all grid conditions. The deadbeat-based UUCC framework enables simpler, faster, and more robust operation of hybrid IBR systems using wide-bandgap (WBG) devices such as SiC power semiconductors. The rapid expansion of hybrid distributed energy resources (DERs), including residential and commercial PV-BESS installations such as Tesla Powerwall, PV with vehicle-to-grid (V2G) capability, and other integrated configurations, presents complex operational challenges for medium-voltage radial distribution feeders. These networks are subject to frequent disturbances such as faults, switching operations, rapid reclosing sequences, and feeder reconfigurations, all of which introduce dynamic stress on IBRs. In addition, planned feeder segmentation and deliberate islanding for resilience will require DERs that can autonomously perform blackstart, establish voltage and frequency references, and resynchronize with the main grid. The advanced deadbeat-based UUCC control and blackstart functionalities developed in this project directly address these requirements, enabling decentralized and autonomous operation of inverter-dominated DERs in distribution systems under a wide range of fault and reconfiguration scenarios. From a public benefit perspective, these innovations enable more reliable and cost-effective integration of renewable energy into distribution networks. The ability to autonomously black start and stabilize grids under varying grid conditions support accelerates recovery from outages and support decentralized resilient energy systems. By reducing system complexity and improving performance, this project lays critical groundwork for future inverter-dominated power grids that are clean, reliable, and accessible to all.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Harnessing Virtual Power Plants Reliably: Enabling tools for increased observability, controllability, operation, and aggregation of distributed energy resources

Harnessing virtual power plants enhances the integration of distributed energy resources into utility grids for a sustainable energy future. Virtual power plants (VPPs) aggregate DERs to enhance resource adequacy and reduce emissions. U.S. utilities are exploring various technologies to manage DERs effectively. FERC Order 2222 allows DERs to participate in both wholesale and retail markets. Enhancing observability and controllability of behind-the-meter (BTM) DERs is essential for reliable grid operations. A hierarchical control architecture can improve coordination among residential energy resources. Field tests showed nearly 20% energy savings and 30% peak power reduction during grid events. Effective management of DERs requires enhanced situational awareness to prevent grid congestion. Integrating DER management systems (DERMS) with existing planning tools can improve operational security. Near-real-time grid models can validate optimal resource set points against resource uncertainty. Traditional uninterruptible power supplies (UPS) can be upgraded to support grid services and become part of VPPs. Upgrading UPS systems can reduce costs by 75% and unlock significant battery capacity. New battery management systems and grid-aware controllers are essential for optimizing UPS performance. Continued research and development are necessary to address challenges in integrating DERs into utility grids. Encouraging customer participation in pilot programs is vital for the evolution of VPPs. Here, the shift towards price-responsive DERs and VPPs is expected to enhance energy distribution efficiency.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Interpretable Machine Learning for Characterizing Electric Vehicle Charging Behavior: Insights from Real-World Data

As electric vehicle (EV) adoption rises globally, concerns about the impact on aging electrical grids grow, particularly regarding the charging behavior of EV drivers. This study analyzes real-world driving and charging data from Ford battery electric vehicles (BEVs) collected between 2018 and 2019 to develop interpretable models that characterize charging behavior and quantify influencing factors. Prior research has relied on assumptions regarding driver behavior, often overlooking actual charging patterns. By employing generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs), this work offers insights into how various elements, such as next trip distance and state of charge (SOC), influence charging decisions. The dataset comprises over three million park-trip pairs from 1,997 vehicles, revealing that features related to driving behavior significantly dictate charging behavior, while infrastructure and regional factors have lesser impacts. The findings suggest that existing simulation models may oversimplify EV charging behavior assumptions. This work utilizes real-world EV driving and charging data to train interpretable models that describe charging behavior and quantify the factors most associated with how drivers use charging infrastructure. This research underscores the need for interpretable, data-driven methodologies to inform future EV infrastructure planning and grid management.

29 - ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact Analysis of Utility-Scale Energy Storage on the ERCOT Grid in Reducing Renewable Generation Curtailments and Emissions

This paper explores the solutions for minimizing renewable energy (RE) curtailment in the Texas Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) grid. By utilizing current and future planning data from ERCOT and the System Advisor Model from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, we examine how future renewable energy (RE) initiatives, combined with utility-scale energy storage, can reduce CO2 emissions while reshaping Texas’s energy mix. The study projects the energy landscape from 2023 to 2033, considering the planned phase-out of fossil fuel plants and the integration of new wind/solar projects. By comparing emissions under different load scenarios, with and without storage, we demonstrate storage’s role in optimizing RE utilization. The findings of this paper provide actionable guidance for energy stakeholders, underscoring the need to expand wind and solar projects with strategic storage solutions to maximize Texas's RE capacity and substantially reduce CO2 emissions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Overview and Commentary on Applying the Coordinated Vulnerability Disclosure Process to Photovoltaic System Devices

The rapid expansion of photovoltaic (PV) systems, particularly inverters, has introduced new cybersecurity challenges that threaten both local operations as well as the broader electrical grid’s stability. PV inverters, integrated into critical energy infrastructure are potential targets for cyber attacks due to vulnerabilities in firmware, remote access systems, and communication protocols. The Coordinated Vulnerability Disclosure (CVD) process, as defined by the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), provides a framework for identifying, reporting, and addressing these vulnerabilities in a transparent and collaborative manner. This report outlines the CVD process as it applies to PV systems, detailing the roles of key stakeholders, such as manufacturers, grid operators, and security researchers. The report also highlights specific challenges in managing vulnerabilities for new and legacy PV systems, which includes those introduced by insecure communications and third-party supply chain components. By adhering to the CVD process, the PV industry can mitigate cybersecurity risks, ensure regulatory compliance, and maintain consumer trust, while safeguarding the operational resilience of the energy grid. Ultimately, the effective coordination of vulnerability management is crucial for securing the future of PV systems within the critical electric grid infrastructure landscape.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Future Industrial Demand: Large, Elastic, and Concentrated [Guest Editorial]

Here, the future industrial demand on the grid is expected to be large, price sensitive, and concentrated. Grid industrial demand increasingly encompasses a new customer type defined as a large flexible load (LFL). This LFL type defines customers with consumption that responds quickly to price or other incentives without interrupting their core business process, such cryptocurrency mining. This customer type can often ramp up and down quickly, which across an entire industry can mean gigawatts of power within a few minutes. In addition to these price-sensitive loads, significant growth is also anticipated in sectors like manufacturing, data centers, and electrification of transportation and buildings.

Mukherjee, Srijib [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (↗
DOE OSTI2025

Second-generation downscaled earth system model data using generative machine learning

The second-generation Sup3rCC dataset provides high-resolution meteorological data generated through the downscaling of multiple earth system models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). This downscaling is performed through application of a generative machine learning approach called Super-Resolution for Renewable Resource Data (sup3r). This dataset builds on the first-generation Sup3rCC data by applying improved bias correction methods and adding downscaled precipitation to the output variables. As with the first Sup3rCC version, the data still include temperature, wind speed and direction at multiple heights, pressure, three components of downwelling solar radiation, and relative humidity—all at 4-kilometer (km) hourly resolution over the contiguous United States. This is a 25x spatial enhancement and 24x temporal enhancement of the source 100-km daily-average ESM data. This extension of the Sup3rCC dataset includes data from six ESMs from two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) totaling 400 years of data with multiple future projections of changing meteorological conditions. The scenario selection was based on a structured evaluation of historical ESM skill and comprehensive representation of possible trajectories of future climate change in temperature, humidity, precipitation, solar irradiance, and near-surface wind speeds. The inclusion of multiple future projections is intended to enable users to assess key drivers of un 36 certainty and variability. All data are double-bias corrected, resulting in a product that can be used out-of-the-box for energy system analysis with minimal historical bias. The potential applications of Sup3rCC data extend to various topics in renewable energy resource assessment, energy systems modeling, and grid resilience studies. High-resolution future meteorological projections are critical for evaluating the effects of changing meteorological conditions on renewable energy generation, energy demand, and for optimizing energy storage and grid infrastructure. The 4-km hourly resolution of the downscaled data enables understanding of spatial and temporal variability at the scales necessary for energy system operational planning. In addition, the dataset can support risk assessments by providing detailed information on possible future extreme weather events and long-term meteorological variability at scales relevant to energy infrastructure. By offering an enhanced representation of possible future meteorological conditions, the second-generation Sup3rCC dataset enables more precise modeling of energy resilience and adaptation strategies in response to changing meteorological conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Blockchain and PKI-Based Secure Vehicle-to-Vehicle Energy-Trading Protocol

With the increasing awareness for sustainable future and green energy, the demand for electric vehicles (EVs) is growing rapidly, thus placing immense pressure on the energy grid. To alleviate this, local trading between EVs should be encouraged. In this paper, we propose a blockchain and public key infrastructure (PKI)-based secure vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) energy-trading protocol. A permissioned blockchain utilizing the proof of authority (PoA) consensus and smart contracts is used to securely store data. Encrypted communication is ensured through transport layer security (TLS), with PKI managing the necessary digital certificates and keys. A multi-leader, multi-follower Stackelberg game-based trade algorithm is formulated to determine the optimal energy demands, supplies, and prices. Finally, we propose a detailed communication protocol that ties all the components together, enabling smooth interaction between them. Key findings, such as system behavior and performance, scalability of the trade algorithm and the blockchain, smart contract execution costs, etc., are presented through numerical results by implementing and simulating the protocol in various scenarios. This work not only enhances local energy trading among EVs, encouraging efficient energy usage and reducing burden on the power grid, but also paves a way for future research in sustainable energy management.

Stackelberg game↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optimal Control for Fast Frequency Response and Black-Start using Embedded Storages with Grid-Forming Control

The grid-forming inverter is regarded as the solution for integrating high levels of renewable resources into future power systems. Ensuring the stable operation of grids necessitates that grid-forming inverters offer fast frequency response. This report introduces an optimal control method that coordinates the embedded storage within the grid-forming control model with conventional synchronous generators. The optimized active power reference for the embedded storage is generated using receding horizon optimization control, aiming to keep the center of inertia frequency within acceptable limits. The effectiveness of the proposed control is verified through testing in the IEEE 39-bus system. In addition, with grid-forming capability, we will also investigate the application of using mobile embedded storages as black-start units to provide cranking power to energize non-blackstart generators in a black-start process.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Opportunities in AI for Electric Grid Applications at Sandia National Laboratories

​​This white paper describes ongoing work and portfolios at Sandia National Laboratories that could be leveraged in AI for electric grid applications. This document highlights several areas where Sandia has developed capabilities that can be used in future work. These areas are human factors, uncertainty quantification, explainability, and trust maturity frameworks. This report provides a look at future collaboration opportunities within the AI for electric grid space at Sandia.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modified Andronov-Hopf Oscillator-Based Grid-Forming Converter with Emulated Virtual Cable for Enhanced Power Sharing Performance

Nonlinear oscillator-based grid-forming converters offer superior dynamic and steady-state performance, making them an attractive solution for interconnecting renewable resources. This paper proposes a novel modified Andronov-Hopf oscillator to enhance the operating spectrum and facilitate the integration of renewable energy sources. An inner loop controller based on the Lyapunov energy function is implemented to achieve robust stability and performance, while a virtual cable emulation strategy enables seamless parallel operation. Comprehensive modeling and simulation studies validate the effectiveness of the proposed system, demonstrating its capabilities in addressing diverse operating scenarios, including grid faults, renewable energy fluctuations, and parallel operation. The proposed solution exhibits fast transient response, robust stability, and flexible operation, making it a valuable contribution to the field of renewable energy integration. The results of this study can be used to inform the design and implementation of next-generation grid-forming converters, enabling a more sustainable and reliable energy future. Additionally, the proposed system's ability to operate in both grid-connected and islanded modes makes it an ideal candidate for remote and off-grid renewable energy applications. The proposed solution's scalability and modularity also make it suitable for large-scale renewable energy integration. The proposed system is verified through MATLAB/Simulink and PLECS simulations, demonstrating its effectiveness in ensuring robust and efficient operation.

Andronov-Hopf Oscillator (AHO)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Co-Simulation Meets AI: MCP-Driven Power System Analysis

GridGPT, a fine-tuned Generative AI model is designed for on-premise use in grid control rooms. This presentation will demonstrate how eGridGPT can seamlessly integrate with control room solutions to offer operators, engineers, and corporate users enhanced guidance and decision support. It is to show how this innovative AI solution can improve state estimation, boost variable energy forecasting, and optimize grid operations. By leveraging eGridGPT's unique features, audience will learn to unlock new levels of automation, predictive analytics, and reliability within their power systems, ultimately leading to reduced downtime and improved operational efficiency.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Intersection of Hydrologic Change and Hydropower in the United States: Needs for Future Research and Practice

Hydropower is crucial for electric‐grid stability in the context of variable renewables but faces threats from changing hydrology. Here, we summarize the state of the science at the intersection of hydropower operations and planning, hydrologic science, and climate. We focus on the United States, outlining research, development, and training needs. Key knowledge gaps include the risk that intensification of compound extreme events poses to future generation, as well as uncertainties surrounding greenhouse gas emissions from hydropower reservoirs with relevance to hydropower's role in energy decarbonization. Quantifying such impacts and reducing uncertainty are critical where possible, but remaining irreducible or deep uncertainty will require new approaches. Future monitoring and modeling methods must provide a better understanding of the complexity inherent in large watersheds that is critical to managing both hydropower and watersheds in the context of hydrologic change. Yet, research and development will have little impact if they do not inform practice. Standardization and consolidation of platforms are essential for data, modeling, and tool translation to local scales and small operators. An enhanced industry‐academia dialog is pivotal for fostering a robust pipeline of hydropower professionals. Collaboration among researchers, policymakers, authorities, and industry stakeholders emerges as a recurring theme, highlighting the imperative for collective efforts.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Three-Dimensional Grid Visualization for Planning Activities: A Dubai Case Study

National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR), in collaboration with the Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (DEWA) and Infra-X, has undertaken the Energy Visualization Analysis Project. The aim of this project is to enhance analytical and 3D visualization capabilities for distribution network planning and renewable energy integration. As modern grid continues to evolve with large-scale solar PV deployment and emerging distributed energy resources (DERs), the ability to effectively analyze, visualize, and communicate complex grid behaviors has become increasingly critical. The project focuses on developing empirical use cases based on real distribution feeder data and engineering workflows, ensuring the outcomes are directly aligned with operational environment. Through time-series power flow simulations and nodal hosting capacity analysis, the study quantifies the impacts of high PV penetration on voltage and thermal limits within representative 11 kV feeders. These analyses identify specific nodes and conditions where DER integration challenges arise. Furthermore, a Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) optimization algorithm was applied to determine the optimal size and placement of storage systems that can mitigate network constraints and enhance hosting capacity. The comparative results between base-case and BESS-augmented scenarios clearly demonstrate improvements in network stability and load management efficiency. In parallel, the NLR team developed an immersive 3D visualization framework, enabling interactive exploration of grid simulations using commodity head-mounted display (HMD) systems. This framework transforms conventional 2D simulation data into spatially intuitive visual environments - allowing engineers to analyze feeder conditions, PV hosting potential, and BESS effects in real time. This report represents the first foundational phase in establishing a visualization-driven analytical ecosystem. It provides a methodological foundation for data integration, visualization architecture, and simulation-based decision support, paving the way for large-scale adoption of immersive visualization across DEWA's Smart Grid Initiative, R&D activities, and future network resilience studies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Strengthening U.S. National Security Through Advanced Energy Innovation

NREL's work in strategic energy security is focused on keeping the United States secure and its citizens safe by applying expertise in advanced energy systems and technologies to prevent energy system disruptions from any source, natural or human. NREL pursues national security objectives by providing partners an accurate understanding of national and international security implications of global energy trends; novel installation, facility, and operational energy solutions; access to NREL R&D capabilities to incorporate advanced energy technologies and biomaterials into mission requirements; and the ability to test future technologies using large-scale grid modeling.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Framework for Identifying Building Energy Models of Localized Utility Service Areas Using Smart Meter Data

Bottom-up load modeling of buildings offers a versatile approach to simulating baseline demand and scenarios of future technology evolution and adoption at the individual building level. This capability is essential to understanding how future load shapes may change with the adoption of electric equipment and vehicles, particularly as it relates to grid planning and infrastructure investments. Traditionally, grid planning techniques have used historical load data to predict future load and infrastructure needs. However, with the anticipated rise in adoption of electrification technologies such as heat pumps and electric vehicles, historical data become less reliable predictors of the future. By employing ResStock, a high-fidelity building stock modeling tool, we can fine-tune electrification scenarios and aggregate models to represent varying geographic resolutions of the grid system, while considering the underlying features of homes. This may enable a more accurate and responsive approach to anticipate and plan for the evolving landscape of energy demands. We present a new framework that leverages building stock energy modeling to identify building models that align with the load shapes and housing attributes of buildings with AMI data. This approach applies two model layers: (1) a classification step that identifies the presence of air conditioning, electric heating, and electric water heating, and (2) an optimization routine that identifies building energy models aligning with load profile data from advanced metering infrastructure meters. This report demonstrates one approach to deploying this framework, and presents results for three test cases that use both modeled and AMI data to assess performance. For a test case using AMI data in Fort Collins, Colorado, we observed a median monthly electricity load CV-RMSE of 16.6%, and a top ten daily heating and cooling median absolute percent error of 7.7% and 8.3%, respectively. For each AMI meter, we identify a set of potential energy models so that downstream use-cases can account for uncertainty driven by variability of baseline technologies and occupant behavior, which impact the response to electrification and energy efficiency scenarios. Our results indicate that ResStock has potential as a scalable solution for modeling residential energy demand at local grid resolutions. Its performance depends on location-specific factors, underlying building characteristics, and the level of aggregation, offering a path towards more precise and adaptive distribution grid planning for the evolving energy landscape.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗