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At least 127 records · Page 7

Quantification of uncertainties in the performance of smart composite structures

A composite wing with spars, bulkheads, and built-in control devices is evaluated using a method for the probabilistic assessment of smart composite structures. Structural responses (such as change in angle of attack, vertical displacements, and stresses in regular plies with traditional materials and in control plies with mixed traditional and actuation materials) are probabilistically assessed to quantify their respective scatter. Probabilistic sensitivity factors are computed to identify those parameters that have a significant influence on a specific structural response. Results show that the uncertainties in the responses of smart composite structures can be quantified. Responses such as structural deformation, ply stresses, frequencies, and buckling loads in the presence of defects can be reliably controlled to satisfy specified design requirements.

Shiao, Michael C.↗

Uncertainty Aware Deep Learning for Fault Prediction Using Multivariate Time Series Signals

The superconducting radio-frequency cavities are a crucial component of the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF) at Jefferson Lab. When a cavity faults, beam delivery to experimental end users is disrupted. Prediction of cavity faults prior to onset is essential to reduce operation and maintenance costs. In this work, a parallel long short-term memory (LSTM)-convolution neural network (CNN)-based deep learning (DL) model is proposed to predict impending faults using pre-fault signals. Further, we introduce an uncertainty quantification approach using Monte Carlo dropout with the LSTM-CNN model to ascertain confidence in the prediction. The model was tested using multivariate time series signals from stable cavity operations and before faults. Initial results show that on the test dataset, the model can identify impending faults before their onset with an average 10-fold cross validation accuracy of 97.39% and a standard deviation of 0.12% using a 100-ms time window. It is also observed that the model performs better as the prediction time moves closer to the fault onset. For additional context, we compare the performance of the model with three machine-learning-based (ML) fault prediction models. Our proposed parallel LSTM-CNN-based DL method shows better performance than the ML-based methods.

Rahman, Md Monibor↗

Acoustoelastic characterization of plates using zero group velocity Lamb modes

Acoustoelasticity, a characteristic of material anharmonicity, gives rise to a link between wave propagation velocity and the stress state in materials. Ultrasonic techniques to monitor this coupling, particularly with high sensitivity and in a noncontact manner, can have widespread application both in the quantification of applied and residual stress and in the characterization of nonlinear material behavior through measurement of higher order elastic constants. Here, we use a laser ultrasonic technique to excite and detect zero group velocity (ZGV) Lamb wave resonances in aluminum plates under uniaxial loading. A laser line source is used to excite these resonances at different orientations with respect to the applied load, and the signals are detected using an interferometer. The effects of stress and source orientation on ZGV resonance frequencies are validated using the theory of acoustoelastic Lamb wave propagation. In addition, a model-based inversion technique is used to extract Murnaghan's third-order elastic constants from measurements of the stress dependence of the first two ZGV modes generated parallel and perpendicular to the applied load. Laser generation and detection of ZGV resonances is shown to be an effective and powerful approach for the noncontact and nondestructive acoustoelastic characterization of elastic waveguides.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Earth System Model Improvement Pipeline via Uncertainty Attribution and Active Learning

Primary focal area: 2 (Predictive Modeling via AI): We develop methods to formally quantify uncertainties in Earth System models for the land-atmosphere coupled system. Science Challenge: Earth system models still have significant biases in historical predictions of the intensity and frequency of water cycling extremes (e.g., droughts and flood events), leading to low confidence in future projections. Uncertainties arise from incomplete understanding of land and atmospheric processes, and insufficient observational constraints on model parameters. Many observations, including those from key DOE investments such as ARM and AmeriFlux, are used to evaluate model performance but have not been used to formally quantify model uncertainty because of the expense of running ESM simulations. An efficient pipeline engaging cutting-edge machine learning (ML) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods is needed to improve the predictive understanding of water cycle extremes in the Earth system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Experimental Whole-Ecosystem Warming Enables Novel Estimation of Snow Cover and Depth Sensitivities to Temperature, and Quantification of the Snow-Albedo Feedback Effect

Climate change is reducing the amount, duration, and extent of snow across high-latitude ecosystems. But, in landscapes where persistent winter snow cover develops, experimental platforms to specifically investigate interactions between warming and changes in snowpack, and impacts on ecosystem processes, have been lacking. We leveraged a whole-ecosystem warming experiment in a boreal peatland forest to quantify how snow duration, depth, and fractional cover vary with warming of up to +9°C. We found that every snow-related quantity we examined declined precipitously as the amount of warming increased. The importance of deep, continuous snow cover for moderating shallow soil temperature is highlighted by an increase in soil temperature variance and the frequency of short-duration freeze-thaw cycles in the warmer plots. We used a paired-plot approach to estimate the magnitude of the snow-albedo feedback effect, and demonstrate that albedo-driven warming linked to reduced snow cover varies between December (+0.4°C increase in maximum air temperature) and March (+1.2°C increase) because of differences in insolation. Overall, results show that even modest future warming will have profound impacts on northern winters and cold-season ecosystem processes. Plot-level data from this warming experiment, and emergent relationships between warming and quantities related to snow cover and duration, could be of enormous value for testing and improving the representation of snow processes in simulation models, especially under future climate scenarios that are outside of the range of historically observed variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Numerical Studies of Scattering Properties of Leaves and Leaf Moisture Influences on the Scattering at Microwave Wavelengths

This study uses 3-dimensional finite difference time domain method to accurately calculate single-scattering properties of randomly orientated leaves and evaluate the influences of vegetation water content (VWC) on these properties at 19 and 37 GHz frequencies. The studied leaves are assumed to be thin elliptic disks with two different sizes and have various VWC values. Although the leaf moisture produces considerable absorption during scattering processes, the effective efficiencies of extinction and scattering of leaves still near-linearly increase with VWC. Calculated asymmetry factors and phase functions indicate that there are significant amounts of scattering at large scattering angles in microwave wavelengths, which provides good opportunities for off-nadir microwave remote sensing of forests. This study lays a basic foundation in future quantifications of the relations between satellite measurements and physical properties of vegetation canopies.

Lin, Bing↗

Intergenerational Inequities in Exposure to Climate Extremes: Young Generations Are Severely Threatened By Climate Change

Under continued global warming, extreme events such as heat waves will continue to rise in frequency, intensity, duration, and spatial extent over the next decades. Younger generations are therefore expected to face more such events across their lifetimes compared with older generations. This raises important issues of solidarity and fairness across generations that have fueled a surge of climate protests led by young people in recent years and that underpin issues of intergenerational equity raised in recent climate litigation. However, the standard scientific paradigm is to assess climate change in discrete time windows or at discrete levels of warming, a “period” approach that inhibits quantification of how much more extreme events a particular generation will experience over its lifetime compared with another. By developing a “cohort” perspective to quantify changes in lifetime exposure to climate extremes and compare across generations (see the first figure), we estimate that children born in 2020 will experience a two- to sevenfold increase in extreme events, particularly heat waves, compared with people born in 1960, under current climate policy pledges. Our results highlight a severe threat to the safety of young generations and call for drastic emission reductions to safeguard their future. Meteorological extremes, hazards, or climate change impacts are mostly studied as they evolve over time under varying emission scenarios and socioeconomic pathways. For example, applying a heat wave indicator (see table S1) to four bias-adjusted global climate models indicates that the land area annually affected by such heat waves will increase from ~15% around 2020 to ~22% by 2100 under a scenario compatible with limiting global warming to 1.5°C, and to ~46% under a scenario in line with current emission reduction pledges (see the first figure). Recent studies extended this approach, studying aspects of climate change as a function of global mean temperature (GMT) increments, highlighting the scenario-independence of several extreme event indicators but remaining, in essence, a comparison of time windows. By contrast, we performed a birth cohort analysis by combining a collection of multimodel extreme event projections with country-scale life expectancy information, gridded population data, and future global temperature trajectories from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (see supplementary materials). By integrating the exposure of an average person in a country or region to extreme events across their lifetime, we encapsulate spatiotemporal changes in climate hazards, population density, cohort size, and life expectancy (see the first figure).

global warming↗

Precipitable Water Variability Using SSM/I and GOES VAS Pathfinder Data Sets

Determining moisture variability for all weather scenes is critical to understanding the earth's hydrologic cycle and global climate changes. Remote sensing from geostationary satellites provides the necessary temporal and spatial resolutions necessary for global change studies. Due to antenna size constraints imposed with the use of microwave radiometers, geostationary satellites have carried instruments passively measuring radiation at infrared wavelengths or shorter. The shortfall of using infrared instruments in moisture studies lies in its inability to sense terrestrial radiation through clouds. Microwave emissions, on the other hand, are mostly unaffected by cloudy atmospheres. Land surface emissivity at microwave frequencies exhibit both high temporal and spatial variability thus confining moisture retrievals at microwave frequencies to over marine atmospheres (a near uniform cold background). This study intercompares the total column integrated water content Precipitable Water, (PW) as derived from both the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) and the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) pathfinder data sets. PW is a bulk parameter often used to quantify moisture variability and is important to understanding the earth's hydrologic cycle and climate system. This research has been spawned in an effort to combine two different algorithms which together can lead to a more comprehensive quantification of global water vapor. The approach taken here is to intercompare two independent PW retrieval algorithms and to validate the resultant retrievals against an existing data set, namely the European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model analysis data.

Lerner, Jeffrey A.↗

Quantification of Cross-coupling and Motion Feedthrough for Multiaxis Controllers Used in an Air Combat Flying Task

A real-time piloted simulation of an air-to-air combat flying task using a wings-level-turn aircraft and various novel controllers was conducted. One objective is to quantify how the pilot interacts with the controllers and control modes, including: (1) controller versus aircraft response; (2) proprioceptive cross-coupling among axes of the controllers; and (3) biodynamic cross-coupling between the aircraft motions and the controllers. In order to aid in identifying the items listed above, both the target aircraft and the large amplitude multimode aerospace research simulator (LAMARS) motion system were distributed with quasi-random sums-of-sinusoids. Since the disturbances were separated in frequency, spectral analysis techniques were used to identify the three items listed. The results of the spectral analysis of controller motions from the two-axis side stick, a twist grip mounted on the side stick, a thumb button mounted on the side stick, and conventional rudder pedals are presented. Conclusions and recommendations for further research are also presented.

Jewell, W. E.↗

Identifying electrochemical processes by distribution of relaxation times in proton exchange membrane electrolyzers

Distribution of relaxation time (DRT) is used to interpret electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) for proton exchange membrane (PEM) water electrolyzers, with an attempt to separate overlapped relaxation processes in Nyquist plots. By varying operating conditions and catalyst loadings, four main relaxation peaks arising from EIS can be identified and successfully separated from low to high frequencies as (P1) mass transport, (P2) oxygen evolution reaction kinetics, (P3) reaction kinetics (with faster time constant than P2), and (P4) ionic transport. Here, the shape, height, and frequency of the DRT peaks change with different membrane electrode assembly (MEA) configurations. Electron microscopy reveals distinct features from the cross-sectioned MEAs which verify critical DRT results in that increasing the iridium (Ir)-anode loading from 0.2 mgIr/cm 2 to 1.5 mgIr/cm 2 reduces kinetic losses due to higher site-access; a thick and compacted anode, however, also triggers higher ohmic resistances from membrane/catalyst layer hydration and increases transport losses due to longer ionomer pathways. DRT provides higher resolution to EIS for deconvoluting processes with different relaxation times and the quantification of DRT peaks improves the accounting of total losses from each process.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Uncertainty Models for the Hybrid Parametric Variation Method of Uncertainty Quantification; Analysis

There is some level of uncertainty in every finite element model (FEM), which flows to a level of uncertainty in predicted results. The purpose of uncertainty quantification (UQ) is to provide statistical bounds on prediction accuracy based on model uncertainty. This is distinct from model updating, which attempts to modify models to improve their accuracy. UQ does not improve the accuracy of models, but accepts that the models are inherently inaccurate and attempts to quantify the impact of that inaccuracy on predicted results. Previously, an alternate method for UQ, called the Hybrid Parametric Variation (HPV) method, was applied to Space Launch System (SLS) Hurty/Craig-Bampton (HCB) components to predict system-level statistics for launch vehicle attitude control transfer functions and core stage section loads due to buffet. The HPV method combines a parametric variation of the HCB fixed-interface (FI) modal frequencies with a nonparametric variation (NPV) method that randomly varies the HCB mass and stiffness matrices as Wishart random matrix distributions using random matrix theory (RMT). Alternatively, the most common method for modeling uncertainty in the structural dynamics community is a parametric approach, which varies physical parameters in the model. However, there are several disadvantages associated with the parametric method. Determining a reduced set of parameters that have a significant impact on the system response can be time consuming, and the selected parameter probability distributions are rarely reliably known. Therefore, in practice, the parameters are surrogates for the actual errors, and the link to parameter uncertainty is unknown. Another major drawback is that the uncertainty that can be represented is limited to the form of the nominal FEM. It is the experience of the authors that based on numerous aerospace programs, almost all FEM errors are in form rather than parameter values. This hypothesis is supported by the observation of the authors that it is almost never possible to ‘tune’ a FEM to match modal test results by only modifying model parameters. Model-form uncertainty cannot be directly represented by FEM input parameters nor included in a parametric approach. However, model-form uncertainty can be modeled using RMT, where a probability distribution is developed for the matrix ensemble of interest. The major advantage of the NPV method is that it covers errors in model form. The HPV method anchors uncertainty at the HCB component level to component modal test results by matching the HCB and test modes based on mode descriptions or other methods, and then applying differing levels of frequency variation. The specific variations depend on the confidence to which a component FEM has been validated through modal testing. The NPV method is layered on the frequency variation to match modal test self-orthogonality and cross-orthogonality (XO) results. Once the component uncertainty models are identified, they are assembled, and the uncertainty is propagated to the system level using a Monte Carlo (MC) analysis approach that generates statistics for system-level predictions This provides a UQ method that can be traced to test data, which can be updated as additional data and improved correlated models become available. The purpose of this paper is to collect and present all of the theory for HPV that has been previously published in reports and papers and to present examples of its application. Specifically, component uncertainty models based on the dispersion of corresponding mass and stiffness matrices using proposed test/analysis correlation metrics are investigated. The first example is purely academic so that the true answers are known, and the validity of the HPV method and the corresponding uncertainty models can be determined. The purpose of this paper is to collect and present all of the theory for HPV that has been previously published in reports and papers and to present examples of its application. Specifically, component uncertainty models based on the dispersion of corresponding mass and stiffness matrices using proposed test/analysis correlation metrics are investigated. The first example is purely academic so that the true answers are known, and the validity of the HPV method and the corresponding uncertainty models can be determined. The second example is an application to a component that is design specific to the SLS. Based on this work and other assessments, the HPV method provides another tool to the toolset used for complex system UQ analysis. From experience gathered to date using the HPV method, additional design specific applications must be investigated to provide further confidence in the validity of the HPV method of UQ analysis.

Uncertainty quantification↗

Compact piezoelectric resonance mass balance for sample verification and mass quantification and mixing.

There is a need for sample verification and mass quantification of rock, soil and/or ice obtained by sample acquisition mechanisms on extraterrestrial bodies. For many scientific instruments information about the mass of the sample would aid in the interpretation of the data and help prevent the portioning system from overloading instrument ports. Additionally, on a potential sample return mission it is likely that a sample confirmation or mass determination requirement would be implemented before the spacecraft would be commanded to return to Earth or Lunar orbit. In an effort to meet these potential requirements, a piezoelectric resonance balance is being developed to measure a frequency change proportional to the sample mass change. In previous work1 we developed a resonance balance which produced large non-linear frequency changes due to the addition of a large mass. In this study we have looked at a variety of resonator geometries in an effort to linearize the frequency shift with mass. In addition, we have investigated the use of oscillator/counter circuitry to track the frequency shift of the piezoelectric mass balance. In this new design the frequency shifts automatically when a mass is placed on the balance and the counter circuit calculates the frequency shift. This frequency is then converted to a mass using calibration tables determined previously. An additional feature we have implemented is the use of a high frequency thickness mode piezoelectric resonator to mix the sample and a reactant or solvent. This allows for measuring both sample and reagent prior to ingestion by the instrument. This paper will focus on the design requirements and how they are affected by the local gravity and acoustic properties of the sample. Designs which allow for easy loading and unloading of the balance will also be discussed.

Yahnker, Christopher R.↗

Benchmarking Surface Tension Measurement Method using two Oscillation Modes in Levitated Liquid Metals

The Faraday forcing method in levitated liquid droplets has recently been introduced as a method for measuring surface tension using resonance. By subjecting an electrostatically-levitated liquid metal droplet to a continuous, oscillatory, electric field, at a frequency nearing that of the droplet’s first principal mode of oscillation (known as mode 2), the method was previously shown to determine surface tension of materials that would be particularly difficult to process by other means, e.g. liquid metals and alloys. It also offers distinct advantages in future work involving high viscosity samples because of the continuous forcing approach. This work presents 1) a benchmarking experimental method to measure surface tension by excitation of the second principal mode of oscillation (known as mode 3) in a levitated liquid droplet and 2) a more rigorous quantification of droplet excitation using a projection method. Surface tension measurements compare favorably to literature values for Zirconium, Inconel 625, and Rhodium, using both modes 2 and 3. Thus, this new method serves as a credible, self-consistent benchmarking technique for the measurement of surface tension

Levitation↗

Gas hydrate quantification in Walker Ridge block 313, Gulf of Mexico, from full-waveform inversion of ocean-bottom seismic data

The Gulf of Mexico (GOM) Joint Industry Project Leg 2 logging-while-drilling data in Walker Ridge lease block 313 (WR313) in the GOM detected gas hydrate in coarse- and fine-grained sediments at sites WR313-G and WR313-H. The coarse-grained units are thin ([Formula: see text]) and highly saturated, whereas the fine-grained unit is thick (approximately 200 m) with low saturation and fracture-filling gas hydrate. Unlike its coarse-grained counterpart, the seismic character of the fine-grained unit does not clearly indicate the presence of gas hydrate, which would likely have remained undiscovered in the absence of drilling. In this paper, through frequency-domain acoustic full-waveform inversion (FWI) of ocean-bottom seismometer data along a 2D multichannel seismic transect near sites WR313-G and WR313-H, we detect and quantify gas hydrate in the fine-grained unit. Key results are as follows: First, the base of the gas hydrate stability zone, which is not obvious in the reflection profile, can be discerned in the FWI results. Second, the gas hydrate in the fine-grained unit is mainly confined to the area between two sets of opposite-dipping normal faults implying that the fault architecture may be partially responsible for this gas hydrate accumulation and distribution.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

The classification of the Arctic Sea ice types and the determination of surface temperature using advanced very high resolution radiometer data

The accurate quantification of new ice and open water areas and surface temperatures within the sea ice packs is a key to the realistic parameterization of heat, moisture, and turbulence fluxes between ocean and atmosphere in the polar regions. Multispectral NOAA advanced very high resolution radiometer/2 (AVHRR/2) satellite images are analyzed to evaluate how effectively the data can be used to characterize sea ice in the Bering and Greenland seas, both in terms of surface type and physical temperature. The basis of the classification algorithm, which is developed using a late wintertime Bering Sea ice cover data, is that frequency distributions of 10.8- micrometers radiances provide four distinct peaks, represeting open water, new ice, young ice, and thick ice with a snow cover. The results are found to be spatially and temporally consistent. Possible sources of ambiguity, especially associated with wider temporal and spatial application of the technique, are discussed. An ice surface temperature algorithm is developed for the same study area by regressing thermal infrared data from 10.8- and 12.0- micrometers channels against station air temperatures, which are assumed to approximate the skin temperatures of adjacent snow and ice. The standard deviations of the results when compared with in situ data are about 0.5 K over leads and polynyas to about 0.5-1.5 K over thick ice. This study is based upon a set of in situ data limited in scope and coverage. Cloud masks are applied using a thresholding technique that utilizes 3.74- and 10.8- micrometers channel data. The temperature maps produced show coherence with surface features like new ice and leads, and consistency with corresponding surface type maps. Further studies are needed to better understand the effects of both the spatial and temporal variability in emissivity, aerosol and precipitable atmospheric ice particle distribution, and atmospheric temperature inversions.

Massom, Robert↗

Controlled impact demonstration airframe bending bridges

The calibration of the KRASH and DYCAST models for transport aircraft is discussed. The FAA uses computer analysis techniques to predict the response of controlled impact demonstration (CID) during impact. The moment bridges can provide a direct correlation between the predictive loads or moments that the models will predict and what was experienced during the actual impact. Another goal is to examine structural failure mechanisms and correlate with analytical predictions. The bending bridges did achieve their goals and objectives. The data traces do provide some insight with respect to airframe loads and structural response. They demonstrate quite clearly what's happening to the airframe. A direct quantification of metal airframe loads was measured by the moment bridges. The measured moments can be correlated with the KRASH and DYCAST computer models. The bending bridge data support airframe failure mechanisms analysis and provide residual airframe strength estimation. It did not appear as if any of the bending bridges on the airframe exceeded limit loads. (The observed airframe fracture was due to the fuselage encounter with the tomahawk which tore out the keel beam.) The airframe bridges can be used to estimate the impact conditions and those estimates are correlating with some of the other data measurements. Structural response, frequency and structural damping are readily measured by the moment bridges.

Soltis, S. J.↗

Formation of Nano- and Micro-Scale Surface Features Induced by Long-Range Femtosecond Filament Laser Ablation

In this work, we study the characteristics of femtosecond-filament-laser–matter interactions and laser-induced periodic surface structures (LIPSS) at a beam-propagation distance up to 55 m. The quantification of the periodicity of filament-induced self-organized surface structures was accomplished by SEM and AFM measurements combined with the use of discrete two-dimensional fast Fourier transform (2D-FFT) analysis, at different filament propagation distances. The results show that the size of the nano-scale surface features increased with ongoing laser filament processing and, further, periodic ripples started to form in the ablation-spot center after irradiation with five spatially overlapping pulses. The effective number of irradiating filament pulses per spot area affected the developing surface texture, with the period of the low spatial frequency LIPSS reducing notably at a high pulse number. The high regularity of the filament-induced ripples was verified by the demonstration of the angle-of-incidence-dependent diffraction of sunlight. This work underlines the potential of long-range femtosecond filamentation for energy delivery at remote distances, with suppressed diffraction and long depth focus, which can be used in biomimetic laser surface engineering and remote-sensing applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Microcrack Quantification in Composite Materials by a Neural Network Analysis of Ultrasound Spectral Data

Intra-ply microcracking in unlined composite pressure vessels can be very troublesome to detect and when linked through the thickness can provide leak paths that may hinder mission success. The leaks may lead to loss of pressure/propellant, increased risk of explosion and possible cryo-pumping into air pockets within the laminate. Ultrasonic techniques have been shown capable of detecting the presence of microcracking and in this work they are used to quantify the level of microcracking. Resonance ultrasound methods are utilized with artificial neural networks to build a microcrack prediction/measurement tool. Two networks are presented, one unsupervised to provide a qualitative measure of microcracking and one supervised which provides a quantitative assessment of the level of microcracking. The resonant ultrasound spectroscopic method is made sensitive to microcracking by tuning the input spectrum to the higher frequency (shorter wavelength) components allowing more significant interaction with the defects. This interaction causes the spectral characteristics to shift toward lower amplitudes at the higher frequencies. As the density of the defects increases more interactions occur and more drastic amplitude changes are observed. Preliminary experiments to quantify the level of microcracking induced in graphite/epoxy composite samples through a combination of tensile loading and cryogenic temperatures are presented. Both unsupervised (Kohonen) and supervised (radial basis function) artificial neural networks are presented to determine the measurable effect on the resonance spectrum of the ultrasonic data taken from the samples.

Walker, James L.↗