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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Feasibility and Compatibility of Alternative Fuels in the U.S. Rail Sector: Technoeconomic, Lifecycle, and Supply Chain Analysis

The U.S. rail sector is a cornerstone of the United States’ freight transportation system, responsible for moving approximately 40% of long-distance freight ton-miles each year (AAR, 2025). Freight demand is projected to grow over time (BTS, 2017) thereby necessitating the investigation of alternative fuels that can sustain operational efficiency while reducing emissions and cost impacts. At the same time, it is important to explore alternative fuels as new sources of energy that can increase energy security and resilience for this sector. This report investigates the feasibility and compatibility of seven alternative fuels in the U.S. rail sector, focusing on biofuels and fuels from other renewable energy sources. The study evaluates alternative fuel pathways, considering their technical, economic, and environmental aspects to provide stakeholders with a comprehensive understanding of potential solutions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling household online shopping demand in the U.S.: a machine learning approach and comparative investigation between 2009 and 2017

Despite the rapid growth of online shopping and research interest in the relationship between online and in-store shopping, national-level modeling and investigation of the demand for online shopping with a prediction focus remain limited in the literature. Here, this paper differs from prior work and leverages two recent releases of the U.S. National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) data for 2009 and 2017 to develop machine learning (ML) models, specifically gradient boosting machine (GBM), for predicting household-level online shopping purchases. The NHTS data allow for not only conducting nationwide investigation but also at the level of households, which is more appropriate than at the individual level given the connected consumption and shopping needs of members in a household. We follow a systematic procedure for model development including employing Recursive Feature Elimination algorithm to select input variables (features) in order to reduce the risk of model overfitting and increase model explainability. Among several ML models, GBM is found to yield the best prediction accuracy. Extensive post-modeling investigation is conducted in a comparative manner between 2009 and 2017, including quantifying the importance of each input variable in predicting online shopping demand, and characterizing value-dependent relationships between demand and the input variables. In doing so, two latest advances in machine learning techniques, namely Shapley value-based feature importance and Accumulated Local Effects plots, are adopted to overcome inherent drawbacks of the popular techniques in current ML modeling. The modeling and investigation are performed at the national level, with a number of findings obtained. The models developed and insights gained can be used for online shopping-related freight demand generation and may also be considered for evaluating the potential impact of relevant policies on online shopping demand.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Electric vehicle supply equipment location and capacity allocation for fixed-route networks

Electric vehicle (EV) supply equipment location and allocation (EVSELCA) problems for freight vehicles are becoming more important because of the trending electrification shift. Some previous works address EV charger location and vehicle routing problems simultaneously by generating vehicle routes from scratch. Although such routes can be efficient, introducing new routes may violate practical constraints, such as drive schedules, and satisfying electrification requirements can require dramatically altering existing routes. To address the challenges in the prevailing adoption scheme, we approach the problem from a fixed -route perspective. We develop a mixed -integer linear program, a clustering approach, and a metaheuristic solution method using a genetic algorithm (GA) to solve the EVSELCA problem. The clustering approach simplifies the problem by grouping customers into clusters, while the GA generates solutions that are shown to be nearly optimal for small problem cases. A case study examines how charger costs, energy costs, the value of time (VOT), and battery capacity impact the cost of the EVSELCA. Charger equipment costs were found to be the most significant component in the objective function, leading to a substantial reduction in cost when decreased. VOT costs exhibited a significant decrease with rising energy costs. Further, an increase in VOT resulted in a notable rise in the number of fast chargers. Longer EV ranges decrease total costs up to a certain point, beyond which the decrease in total costs is negligible.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sustainable Port Operations: Powered by NREL

Seaports are vital economic hubs that allow the United States to compete on a global scale. But the heavy vehicles and cargo equipment that enable their operations also emit harmful air pollutants and greenhouse gas emissions. For nearly two decades, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) researchers have worked toward comprehensive seaport decarbonization. They fuse world-class analysis with deep vehicle and transportation systems knowledge to guide strategic deployment of low- and zero-emissions vehicles, charging and refueling infrastructure, and grid improvements. Together, these capabilities can enable sustainable port operations. This fact sheet outlines major seaport and airport decarbonization capabilities across the laboratory, including: fleet research, energy data, and insights for decarbonization; comprehensive hydrogen infrastructure deployment; optimized charging through grid integration; strategic blueprinting for clean, optimized technology deployment; and integrating diversity, equity, inclusion, and accessibility considerations into decarbonization efforts.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY CONSERVATION, C↗
DOE OSTI2023

Volvo Pathway to Cost-Effective Commercialized Freight Efficiency (SuperTruck 2)

Volvo’s SuperTruck 2 (ST2) built on the success of the SuperTruck 1 (ST1) project, with the objective to research, develop, and demonstrate a Class 8 long-haul tractor-trailer concept truck designed with an integrated approach to maximize freight efficiency and achieve the following goals: - Greater than 100% improvement in vehicle freight efficiency (FE) on a ton-mile-per-gallon basis, with a stretch goal of 120% improvement relative to a 2009 baseline. - Greater than or equal to 55% engine brake thermal efficiency (BTE) demonstrated in an operational engine at a 65-mph cruise point on a dynamometer. - Develop technologies that are commercially cost effective in terms of a simple payback. This cooperative agreement with the US Department of Energy (DOE) had a total project cost of $40,000,000 with a 50% cost share, or $20,000,000, paid by the DOE. This project was awarded to Volvo Technology of America, LLC, who was the prime recipient and project lead. Metalsa, Michelin, Wabash, Bergstrom, University of Michigan, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Johnson Matthey, Knight Transportation, Wegmans, and Motivo were partners / sub-recipients in this project.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Spatially Resolved Domicile Charging Demands for Light-, Medium-, and Heavy-Duty Electric Vehicles in Virginia

The use of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) and resulting grid impacts are likely to grow rapidly, and evaluation of optimal smart charge management and grid integration strategies is warranted now. Evaluating distribution grid impacts requires fine-grained models of PEV operations to estimate charging loads across diverse vehicles at high spatial resolution. We propose such a model and consider a high-electrification scenario in Richmond and Newport News, Virginia. Our framework considers four categories of vehicle that are amenable to early aggressive electrification: light-duty passenger vehicles (LDV), trucks and vans with a focus on delivery or other local operations, school buses, and transit buses. These vehicles have a relatively consistent domicile, reducing the need for public charging infrastructure rollout to electrify. We apply a recent LDV model and propose new models for each vocation of medium- and heavy-duty vehicle, leveraging telematics data. We demonstrate our framework in Virginia and find energy demands in the region may total 15 GWh day, with most consumed by LDV. However, considering power demand at high spatial resolution reveals a different trend: LDVs have relatively small peak loads at specific sites (peak site demand around 800 kW) compared to average and high demand medium- and heavy-duty vehicle charging sites (peak site demand around 6,000 kW at a transit bus depot, 1,500 kW at a local freight hub, and 1,000 kW at a school). Our framework yields insights on the relative impacts of each vocation and enables future work to tailor grid integration strategies to each vehicle category.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2021

The role of negative emissions in meeting China’s 2060 carbon neutrality goal

China’s pledge to reach carbon neutrality before 2060 is an ambitious goal and could provide the world with much-needed leadership on how to limit warming to +1.5°C warming above preindustrial levels by the end of the century. But the pathways that would achieve net zero by 2060 are still unclear, including the role of negative emissions technologies. We use the Global Change Analysis Model to simulate how negative emissions technologies, in general, and direct air capture (DAC) in particular, could contribute to China’s meeting this target. Our results show that negative emissions could play a large role, offsetting on the order of 3 GtCO 2 per year from difficult-to-mitigate sectors, such as freight transportation and heavy industry. This includes up to a 1.6 GtCO 2 per year contribution from DAC, constituting up to 60% of total projected negative emissions in China. But DAC, like bioenergy with carbon capture and storage and afforestation, has not yet been demonstrated anywhere approaching the scales required to meaningfully contribute to climate mitigation. Deploying NETs at these scales will have widespread impacts on financial systems and natural resources, such as water, land and energy in China.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating the Nation's Pipeline Infrastructure with NETL's Advanced Infrastructure Integrity Model (AIIM)

This poster is a part of BIL-EDX4CCS Task 36: Advanced Infrastructure Integrity Modeling to Evaluate Existing Energy Infrastructure Reusability and Risk, the goal of which is to produce a smart tool that will assess existing energy infrastructure reusability and risk using the Advanced Infrastructure Integrity Model (AIIM). This model forecasts lifespan and potential risk using a multitude of factors such as incidents reports, structural characteristics, and the surrounding environment. The project aims to provide scientific insights for a better understanding of carbon storage (CS), potential to support CS stakeholder needs, national decarbonization, and mitigating climate change. AIIM will utilize an energy infrastructure database as its input, developed by acquiring publicly available data as well as NETL derived products. These resources include incidents, geohazards, and infrastructure variables. Soil data in the form of rasters and pipeline incident reports were processed and a script was developed to count the number of times features such as roads, railroads, and rivers intersected with pipeline segments which were then converted to points. Distance to oil and natural gas wells, petroleum ports, intermodal freight facilities, and geologic structures were also calculated. After data preparation and quality control was completed, the data was integrated into the pipeline points. Once models are complete, a smart tool will be created in the form of an online dashboard.

Malay, Caleb↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Profiled Feldman-Cousins Method for Confidence Interval Construction for the Nova 3-Flavor Oscillation Analysis

The small interaction cross-section of neutrinos makes experimental neutrino physics particularly responsive to technological advancements. A significant development leveraged by the NOvA experiment is large-scale parallel processing, enabling novel computational approaches to longstanding experimental challenges. Central to managing the resulting high-throughput data is NOvA’s implementation of the Freight Train model, designed for efficient data production and handling.This dissertation details the methodology and execution of the NOvA 2024 3-Flavor Oscillation Analysis, supported by a comprehensive dataset spanning ten years. It emphasizes frequentist results refined through the Feldman-Cousins (FC) technique, specifically addressing confidence interval corrections in parameter estimation. The computational intensity associated with Feldman-Cousins arises from extensive Monte Carlo simulations, which were substantially mitigated through parallel computing on the Perlmutter supercomputer at the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC), employing the MPI framework.To further enhance computational efficiency, an Importance Sampling method is introduced and evaluated, demonstrating significant potential to reduce complexity, particularly in exploring extreme parameter space regions. This thesis presents both the successful application of advanced computational resources and the development of sophisticated statistical techniques, aiming to enhance the precision and scope of neutrino oscillation analyses.

Dye ajdye11190@gmail.com, Andrew Joseph [Mississip↗
DOE OSTI2025

Regional Analysis for an Economically and Environmentally Viable Transition to Heavy-Duty Vehicles with Alternative Powertrains

The transportation sector is responsible for a significant portion of greenhouse gas emissions. Within the sector, truck freight is responsible for a third of the associated emissions. Alternative powertrains are seen as a viable approach to significantly reduce these emissions. Prior to making a large-scale transition, it is important to consider the following questions: will the power grid support a transition to alternative powertrains?; will the transition truly reduce carbon emissions?; and will the transition impose an unnecessary economic burden on companies within the industry? The answer to these questions, however, can vary by geography, maturity/capacity of the energy distribution network or predicted vehicle load. We focus on the latter two questions, investigating the variation in estimated total cost of ownership and carbon emissions across the United States at the zip code level for both heavy-duty battery electric vehicles and heavy-duty fuel cell electric vehicles. As a benchmark, we compare estimated emissions and costs of alternative powertrain vehicles to that of conventional heavy-duty vehicles powered by diesel internal combustion engines. This work highlights areas with electric grids primed for a transition to alternative powertrain vehicles, such as the Pacific Northwest, and areas that require further infrastructure investment in renewables, such as many of the Mountain states, Missouri, and Florida. Additionally, this work illustrates the current advantages in carbon emissions of battery electric vehicles compared to fuel-cell electric vehicles, while providing insights into required regional investments for narrowing the gap.

Goulet, Nate [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000237314965)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Charging Needs for Battery Electric Semi Trucks

Battery-electric vehicles provide a pathway to decarbonize heavy-duty trucking, but the market for electric trucks is nascent, and specific charging requirements remain uncertain. This paper summarizes methods and findings from Charging Needs for Electric Semi-Trailer Trucks [1] wherein we leverage large-scale vehicle telematics data (>205 million miles of driving) to estimate the charging behaviors and infrastructure requirements for U.S. battery-electric semi-trailer trucks within three operating segments: local, regional, and long-haul. We model two types of charging - mid-shift (fast en-route charging) and off-shift (slow depot charging) - and show that off-shift charging at speeds compatible with current light-duty charging infrastructure (i.e., =350 kW) can supply 35% to 77% of total energy demand for local and regional trucks with =300-mile range. Megawatt-level speeds are required for mid-shift charging, which make up 44% to 57% of energy demand for long-haul trucks with =500-mile range. However, the role of off-shift charging increases as the range for battery-electric trucks increases and when off-shift charging is widely available.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Northeast Freight Corridor Charging Plan

Medium- and heavy-duty freight rely on service plazas and truck stops to refuel their vehicles and meet their obligations. Creating a reliable fast-charging network across the Northeast is critical to provide security for fleets to electrify.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2026

New Norms or Old Habits: Evaluating Interlinked Trajectories of Online Shopping and Work Commute Post-Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly shifted travel behaviors, with major changes observed in online shopping and travel to work. Despite considerable research into pandemic-induced changes in travel behavior, it remains uncertain whether these new patterns have persisted or reverted to pre-pandemic norms. This study addresses this uncertainty by evaluating whether shifts in online shopping and work travel during the pandemic have become permanently ingrained in individuals' daily routine. Leveraging data from the 2022 National Household Travel Survey, a bivariate ordered probit model is employed to analyze changes in online shopping and work travel - whether they have increased, decreased, or remained stable compared to pre-pandemic levels across different population segments. The analysis finds that the pandemic did not significantly alter online shopping for home delivery and travel to work for the majority of society. However, a substantial portion of respondents reported increased online shopping for home delivery and reduced travel to work compared to pre-pandemic levels, with online shopping trends appearing more permanent. Segment-wise analysis and model results indicate heterogeneity in behavioral shifts with females engaging more in online shopping, while zero-vehicle households are traveling less to work, compared to pre-pandemic levels. Additionally, increase in online shopping frequency is significantly and negatively correlated with decrease in traveling to work. These findings highlight the need for improved digital infrastructure, flexible work policies, and integrated transportation solutions tailored to evolving demographic and socioeconomic needs in the post-pandemic era. Additionally, the study calls for integrating passenger and freight movement in a single framework rather than treating them in silos.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Machine Learning–Based Tire Life Prediction Framework for Increasing Life of Commercial Vehicle Tires

In the commercial freight industry, tire retreading decisions are often conservative due to limited knowledge of a tire’s remaining service life. This practice leads to increased costs and material waste. This paper proposes a machine learning–based approach for estimating tire casing life and retreadability, focusing on usage data rather than wear information. This approach could extend the tire’s lifespan and reduce landfill waste. Data integration from diverse tire casing measurement sources presents challenges, including imbalanced removal data. Our methodology addresses these challenges by using historical inspection, telematics, and finite element modeling (FEM) datasets. We introduce “Tire Casing Energy” as a comprehensive usage input and apply a Variance-Reduction Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (VR-SMOTE) for data imbalance rectification. A random forest model is used to estimate the state of the tire casing and the casing removal probability, with Bayesian optimization applied for hyperparameter tuning, enhancing model accuracy. Here, the proposed prediction framework is able to differentiate different truck fleets and tire locations based on their usage parameters. With the aid of this machine learning model, the importance and sensitivity of different tire usage parameters can be obtained, which is beneficial to maximize tire life.

Data balancing↗
DOE OSTI2023

IMPROVING TRANSPORTATION EFFICIENCY THROUGH INTEGRATED VEHICLE, ENGINE, AND POWERTRAIN RESEARCH -SUPERTRUCK II

Daimler Truck North America (DTNA) completed a five year, $40.1 M SuperTruck 2 project to demonstrate technologies to achieve both vehicle and engine efficiency improvements. The vehicle objective was to develop and demonstrate a concept vehicle with at least 115% vehicle freight efficiency improvement over a weighted average of four cycles relative to a 2009 best-in-class baseline vehicle. The engine technology development goal was to achieve 55% brake thermal efficiency (BTE) as tested on a dynamometer at an equivalent of 65 MPH. Both project objectives were to develop technologies that are cost effective. SuperTruck 2 started in 2017 and built on the knowledge gained in SuperTruck 1. SuperTruck 2 enabled the ability to evaluate high risk high reward research centered on four areas that show the most potential for commercialization: aerodynamics, powertrain, rolling resistance and energy management. In addition, several industry, University and National laboratories were able to collaborate in developing technologies found to be successful in meeting the program objectives. Several technologies show promise towards production while some technologies do not show a quick path towards production.

Villeneuve, Darek↗
DOE OSTI2025

DEVELOPMENT OF AN INTEGRATED SECURITY AND SAFETY MONITORING SYSTEM FOR SPENT NUCLEAR FUEL AND HIGH-LEVEL WASTE TRANSPORTATION

This paper provides an overview of the progress to date, and discussion of the path forward, related to designing, fabricating, and testing an integrated security and safety monitoring system (ISSMS) for railcars used to transport spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level radioactive waste (HLW) in the United States. The system will comply with the US Department of Energy’s (DOE) Order 460.2B “Departmental Materials Transportation Management” and the Association of American Railroads’ (AAR) standard S-2043 “Performance Specification for Trains Used to Carry High-level Radioactive Material” [1] developed specifically for railcars used to transport high-level radioactive material (HLRM). DOE is in the process of developing and testing an ISSMS that will satisfy both DOE requirements and AAR standards. DOE has already developed railcar designs for transportation of HLRM. In 2024, DOE’s Atlas railcar project completed the design, fabrication and testing of three railcar types: transportation cask-carrying, buffer, and security escort, resulting in AAR conditional approval to operate on freight rail networks in North America. DOE decided to combine the required security and safety systems into one system, and this combined system is the subject of the current effort. DOE is developing and proposes to implement the ISSMS for these railcars as part of the build out of the railcar fleet. DOE began planning for development of the ISSMS in February 2020. The project is divided into seven phases starting with conceptual design and continuing through production design, as shown in Figure 1. An earlier version of the system was tested as part of the Atlas railcar consist demonstration test run in 2023. This paper describes the design features and system testing using the Atlas project railcars, and laboratory testing completed to date. The paper will also describe the activities planned to support the DOE project to ship the High Burn-Up Research Cask (HBRC) in 2027.

Schultze, Michael [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000283205671)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Measuring Flexibility through Reduction Potential

As electrical loads, electric vehicles (EVs) are distinguished in many cases by their substantial flexibility. Harnessing this flexibility, however, requires a precise characterization of its timing and degree. Current approaches to flexibility characterization tend to be limited either by the complexity of their representation or their inability to capture aggregate flexibility across multiple vehicles. In this paper, we present the reduction potential matrix, a novel metric capturing fleet-level EV load flexibility while being both straightforward to calculate and intuitive to interpret. We use the metric to quantify flexibility for two operationally distinct commercial groups: freight vehicles and transit buses. While we find that both vehicle groups have substantial flexibility, its timing, magnitude, and duration varies across the groups. We describe how this variability translates into variation in the each group's role as a grid resource, and conclude with a discussion of how system planners, fleet operators, and other stakeholders can use the novel metric to cultivate symbiosis between vehicles and the grid.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗