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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Pushing the Limits of Pulse Shape Discrimination in a Large Liquid Xenon Detector

The LUX-ZEPLIN (LZ) experiment is a direct-detection dark matter experiment, optimized to search for weakly interacting massive particles (WIMPs) through WIMP-nucleon interactions. The main challenge in dark matter detection is differentiating between WIMP signals and background events. In LZ, the ratio of ionization to scintillation signals (charge-to-light) is the primary method for rejecting electronic recoil (ER) background. Pulse shape discrimination (PSD) offers a method for additional ER backgrounds rejection in liquid xenon detectors. In this paper, the discrimination power of PSD with the LZ experiment is discussed. To precisely characterize the scintillation pulse shape, an analysis framework is developed to reconstruct the detection time of individual photons. Using LZ calibration data, the photon-timing prompt fraction discriminator is optimized and achieves ER leakage as low as $15\%$. For specific background processes such as $^{124}$Xe double electron capture, the leakage is reduced further to about $5\%$. PSD is combined with charge-to-light to form two-factor discrimination (TFD). The optimized TFD performance is compared with the performance of the charge-to-light method, with the corresponding false positive rate reduced by up to a factor of two for large scintillation pulses. Finally, PSD and TFD are applied to data from LZ's WS2024 run and their performance is summarized.

Akerib, D. S. [SLAC; KIPAC, Menlo Park]↗
DOE OSTI2021

Process Anomaly Detection for Sparsely Labeled Events in Nuclear Power Plants

An essential aspect of online monitoring, subtle anomaly detection increases the detection lead time for equipment failure and enables a nuclear power plant (NPP) to mitigate unexpected partial or full outages, resulting in significant cost saving to the plant. Once an anomaly is detected by plant staff, its cause and severity are investigated. Because the vast majority of anomalies require some level of investigation, including some that require time-consuming examination, before they are passed over to the engineering organization for further analysis, plants are often equipped with tools to assist the staff in performing anomaly detection. Those tools operate as a black box and are often based on statistical methods that establish sensor correlations using preconfigured mathematical models and flag correlation deviations as anomalies. Due to the number of anomalies detected at a given NPP on a daily basis, a significant number of flagged anomalies usually await examination for days or weeks. A primary cause of this backlog is that the methods used by the tools generate many false positives. Though this is usually attributed to oversensitive model settings due to very narrow normal operation bands, it can also be associated with the model development being inadequate for the process being monitored, or with missing model inputs that could have explained misclassified positives. The performance of anomaly detection tools impacts their plant acceptance and utilization, especially when the effort to address false positives generated by the tool depletes the value or cost saved by using that tool. Thus, means to advance anomaly detection performance have been investigated by the Department of Energy’s Light Water Reactor Sustainability program. Previous and ongoing efforts have targeted unsupervised machine-learning (ML) methods, which do not require the labeling of any data fed into the ML model. By contrast, in supervised anomaly detection methods, every data point is labeled as either a normal or abnormal process condition, and the model is trained to replicate the classification process. Supervised methods usually outperform unsupervised methods, due to the added value in differentiating normal from anomalous states of the monitored process. An NPP’s corrective action program requires it to track and document, via a dedicated report, the resolution of any issues that occur within the plant. Once created, each report is reviewed by a plant screening committee, and several classifications and decisions are made. Recently, a collaborating NPP developed an artificial intelligence and ML-based classifier to categorize a condition report (CR) into classes that can serve to label the data as normal or anomalous. Applying CRs as labels represents a semi-supervised use case. Semi-supervised ML assumes that labels exist for some data points (i.e., labeled anomalies, in this case) but not for the rest. In this effort, semi-supervised ML methods were used to fuse data from CRs with anomaly detection methods in order to test the hypothesis that partially labeled anomalies would improve the accuracy of the anomaly detection methods. Specifically, two methods were used. The first is the deep Semi-supervised Anomaly Detection (deep SAD) method, which can handle labels ranging from fully unsupervised to fully supervised cases. The second is a newly designed ML method developed specifically for this effort and referred to as the high-order feature (HOF)-based method. To evaluate these two methods in controlled environments, synthetic data generators were developed and used. The first datasets used a spring-mass-damper (SMD) system simulator commonly found in mechanical engineering references. This was used to create two use cases: a one- and a three-mass system. Anomalies were introduced by changing the spring and damper coefficients while the system was actuated by random forces. The second datasets used the commercial Dymola-Modelica software to build a simplified nuclear reactor model. Anomalies were added in the form of corrupted sensor readings and/or control commands. The deep SAD method was tested using the SMD system, while the HOF method was tested using both datasets. Application of the deep SAD semi-supervised ML method demonstrated that labels can generate increased confidence in detecting true anomalies. This helped increase the number of true positives and decrease the number of false negatives—something that would aid in addressing the backlog of possible anomalies. Application of the HOF method demonstrated that labels can aid in down selecting from a candidate set of features to a more optimal subset in order to better differentiate between normal and anomalous conditions.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
NASA NTRS2011

Lightning Initiation Forecasting: An Operational Dual-Polarimetric Radar Technique

The objective of this NASA MSFC and NOAA CSTAR funded study is to develop and test operational forecast algorithms for the prediction of lightning initiation utilizing the C-band dual-polarimetric radar, UAHuntsville's Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR). Although there is a rich research history of radar signatures associated with lightning initiation, few studies have utilized dual-polarimetric radar signatures (e.g., Z(sub dr) columns) and capabilities (e.g., fuzzy-logic particle identification [PID] of precipitation ice) in an operational algorithm for first flash forecasting. The specific goal of this study is to develop and test polarimetric techniques that enhance the performance of current operational radar reflectivity based first flash algorithms. Improving lightning watch and warning performance will positively impact personnel safety in both work and leisure environments. Advanced warnings can provide space shuttle launch managers time to respond appropriately to secure equipment and personnel, while they can also provide appropriate warnings for spectators and players of leisure sporting events to seek safe shelter. Through the analysis of eight case dates, consisting of 35 pulse-type thunderstorms and 20 non-thunderstorm case studies, lightning initiation forecast techniques were developed and tested. The hypothesis is that the additional dual-polarimetric information could potentially reduce false alarms while maintaining high probability of detection and increasing lead-time for the prediction of the first lightning flash relative to reflectivity-only based techniques. To test the hypothesis, various physically-based techniques using polarimetric variables and/or PID categories, which are strongly correlated to initial storm electrification (e.g., large precipitation ice production via drop freezing), were benchmarked against the operational reflectivity-only based approaches to find the best compromise between forecast skill and lead-time. Forecast skill is determined by statistical analysis of probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR), Operational Utility Index (OUI), and critical success index (CSI).

Woodard, Crystal J.↗
DOE OSTI2021

OzDES reverberation mapping program: Lag recovery reliability for 6-yr C iv analysis

ABSTRACT We present the statistical methods that have been developed to analyse the OzDES reverberation mapping sample. To perform this statistical analysis we have created a suite of customizable simulations that mimic the characteristics of each source in the OzDES sample. These characteristics include: the variability in the photometric and spectroscopic light curves, the measurement uncertainties, and the observational cadence. By simulating the sources in the OzDES sample that contain the C iv emission line, we developed a set of criteria that rank the reliability of a recovered time-lag depending on the agreement between different recovery methods, the magnitude of the uncertainties, and the rate at which false positives were found in the simulations. These criteria were applied to simulated light curves and these results used to estimate the quality of the resulting Radius–Luminosity relation. We grade the results using three quality levels (gold, silver, and bronze). The input slope of the R–L relation was recovered within 1σ for each of the three quality samples, with the gold standard having the lowest dispersion with a recovered a R–L relation slope of 0.454 ± 0.016 with an input slope of 0.47. Future work will apply these methods to the entire OzDES sample of 771 AGN.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Pushing the limits of pulse shape discrimination in a large liquid xenon detector

Abstract The LUX-ZEPLIN (LZ) experiment is a direct-detection dark matter experiment, optimized to search for weakly interacting massive particles (WIMPs) through WIMP-nucleon interactions. The main challenge in dark matter detection is differentiating between WIMP signals and background events. In LZ, the ratio of ionization to scintillation signals (charge-to-light) is the primary method for rejecting electronic recoil (ER) background. Pulse shape discrimination (PSD) offers a method for additional ER backgrounds rejection in liquid xenon detectors. In this paper, the discrimination power of PSD with the LZ experiment is discussed. To precisely characterize the scintillation pulse shape, an analysis framework is developed to reconstruct the detection time of individual photons. Using LZ calibration data, the photon-timing tail fraction discriminator is optimized and achieves ER leakage as low as $$15\%$$ 15 % . For specific background processes such as $$^{124}$$ 124 Xe double electron capture, the leakage is reduced further to about $$5\%$$ 5 % . PSD is combined with charge-to-light to form two-factor discrimination (TFD). The optimized TFD performance is compared with the performance of the charge-to-light method, with the corresponding false positive rate reduced by up to a factor of two for large scintillation pulses. Finally, PSD and TFD are applied to data from LZ’s WS2024 run and their performance is summarized.

Akerib, D. S. [SLAC National Accelerator Laborator↗
DOE OSTI2024

Inferring precocial Chinook Salmon production through single‐parentage assignments

Abstract Objective Parentage analysis is a routine methodology in fisheries research, but study systems exist where it is impractical to sample both parents. The ability to reliably assign offspring to a single parent is beneficial in these situations. We applied single‐parentage assignments to a naturally spawning population of Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha to quantify production of anadromous returns by unsampled precocial males. Methods We used an approach that focused on two important aspects of parentage analyses: (1) addressing the presence of family structure within the set of sampled parents and (2) controlling for false‐positive and false‐negative assignments. Result Results indicated that 30% of reproductively successful males were precocial males, which produced 20% of the returning anadromous offspring. Conclusion This study provides a framework for applying single‐parent assignments in a salmonid study system while explicitly addressing sources of assignment errors.

Steele, Craig A.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Multi-Parameter Observation and Detection of Pre-Earthquake Signals in Seismically Active Areas

The recent large earthquakes (M9.0 Tohoku, 03/2011; M7.0 Haiti, 01/2010; M6.7 L Aquila, 04/2008; and M7.9 Wenchuan 05/2008) have renewed interest in pre-anomalous seismic signals associated with them. Recent workshops (DEMETER 2006, 2011 and VESTO 2009 ) have shown that there were precursory atmospheric /ionospheric signals observed in space prior to these events. Our initial results indicate that no single pre-earthquake observation (seismic, magnetic field, electric field, thermal infrared [TIR], or GPS/TEC) can provide a consistent and successful global scale early warning. This is most likely due to complexity and chaotic nature of earthquakes and the limitation in existing ground (temporal/spatial) and global satellite observations. In this study we analyze preseismic temporal and spatial variations (gas/radon counting rate, atmospheric temperature and humidity change, long-wave radiation transitions and ionospheric electron density/plasma variations) which we propose occur before the onset of major earthquakes:. We propose an Integrated Space -- Terrestrial Framework (ISTF), as a different approach for revealing pre-earthquake phenomena in seismically active areas. ISTF is a sensor web of a coordinated observation infrastructure employing multiple sensors that are distributed on one or more platforms; data from satellite sensors (Terra, Aqua, POES, DEMETER and others) and ground observations, e.g., Global Positioning System, Total Electron Content (GPS/TEC). As a theoretical guide we use the Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model to explain the generation of multiple earthquake precursors. Using our methodology, we evaluated retrospectively the signals preceding the most devastated earthquakes during 2005-2011. We observed a correlation between both atmospheric and ionospheric anomalies preceding most of these earthquakes. The second phase of our validation include systematic retrospective analysis for more than 100 major earthquakes (M>5.9) in Taiwan and Japan. We have found anomalous behavior before all of these events with no false negatives. Calculated false alarm ratio for the for the same month over the entire period of analysis (2003-2009) is less than 10% and was d as the earthquakes. The commonalities in detecting atmospheric/ionospheric anomalies show that they may exist over both land and sea in regions of maximum stress (i.e., along plate boundaries) Our results indicate that the ISTF model could provide a capability to observe pre-earthquake atmospheric/ionospheric signals by combining this information into a common framework.

Ouzounov, D.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Demonstration of no catalytical activity of Fe–N–C and Nb–N–C electrocatalysts toward nitrogen reduction using in–line quantification

Ammonia (NH 3 ) production via the electrochemical nitrogen reduction reaction (NRR) is a promising method for sustainable generation of this important chemical. Efforts are ongoing in finding an efficient, stable, and selective catalyst that will enable the reaction. However, progress is hindered in the field due to lack of reproducibility, most likely a consequence of reports of false-positive results due to improper measurement control and methods. In this study, we explore the NRR activity of a promising class of single atom catalysts, transition metal-nitrogen-carbon (M-N-C) electrocatalysts. Using a state-of-the-art in-line ammonia quantification methodology, with detection limit as low as 1 ppb for ammonia, we show that single atom Nb and Fe embedded in a stable carbon and nitrogen framework do not electrochemically reduce N 2 to NH 3 . Critically, this demonstrates that our experimental setup with in-line sequential injection analysis successfully excludes ammonia contamination from the gas supply and atmospheric sources, allowing for thorough and high-throughput examination of potential NRR catalysts.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Characterisation and comparative analysis of mitochondrial genomes of false, yellow, black and blushing morels provide insights on their structure and evolution

Morchella species have considerable significance in terrestrial ecosystems, exhibiting a range of ecological lifestyles along the saprotrophism-to-symbiosis continuum. However, the mitochondrial genomes of these ascomycetous fungi have not been thoroughly studied, thereby impeding a comprehensive understanding of their genetic makeup and ecological role. In this study, we analysed the mitogenomes of 30 Morchellaceae species, including yellow, black, blushing and false morels. These mitogenomes are either circular or linear DNA molecules with lengths ranging from 217 to 565 kbp and GC content ranging from 38% to 48%. Fifteen core protein-coding genes, 28–37 tRNA genes and 3–8 rRNA genes were identified in these Morchellaceae mitogenomes. The gene order demonstrated a high level of conservation, with the cox1 gene consistently positioned adjacent to the rnS gene and cob gene flanked by apt genes. Some exceptions were observed, such as the rearrangement of atp6 and rps3 in Morchella importuna and the reversed order of atp6 and atp8 in certain morel mitogenomes. However, the arrangement of the tRNA genes remains conserved. We additionally investigated the distribution and phylogeny of homing endonuclease genes (HEGs) of the LAGLIDADG (LAGs) and GIY-YIG (GIYs) families. A total of 925 LAG and GIY sequences were detected, with individual species containing 19–48HEGs. These HEGs were primarily located in the cox1, cob, cox2 and nad5 introns and their presence and distribution displayed significant diversity amongst morel species. These elements significantly contribute to shaping their mitogenome diversity. Overall, this study provides novel insights into the phylogeny and evolution of the Morchellaceae.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Archetype-based Redshift Estimation for the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Survey

We present a computationally efficient galaxy archetype-based redshift estimation and spectral classification method for the Dark Energy Survey Instrument (DESI) survey. The DESI survey currently relies on a redshift fitter and spectral classifier using a linear combination of principal component analysis–derived templates, which is very efficient in processing large volumes of DESI spectra within a short time frame. However, this method occasionally yields unphysical model fits for galaxies and fails to adequately absorb calibration errors that may still be occasionally visible in the reduced spectra. Our proposed approach improves upon this existing method by refitting the spectra with carefully generated physical galaxy archetypes combined with additional terms designed to absorb data reduction defects and provide more physical models to the DESI spectra. We test our method on an extensive data set derived from the survey validation (SV) and Year 1 (Y1) data of DESI. Our findings indicate that the new method delivers marginally better redshift success for SV tiles while reducing catastrophic redshift failure by 10%–30%. At the same time, results from millions of targets from the main survey show that our model has relatively higher redshift success and purity rates (0.5%–0.8% higher) for galaxy targets while having similar success for QSOs. These improvements also demonstrate that the main DESI redshift pipeline is generally robust. Additionally, it reduces the false-positive redshift estimation by 5%–40% for sky fibers. We also discuss the generic nature of our method and how it can be extended to other large spectroscopic surveys, along with possible future improvements.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impact of genotype‐calling methodologies on genome‐wide association and genomic prediction in polyploids

Abstract Discovery and analysis of genetic variants underlying agriculturally important traits are key to molecular breeding of crops. Reduced representation approaches have provided cost‐efficient genotyping using next‐generation sequencing. However, accurate genotype calling from next‐generation sequencing data is challenging, particularly in polyploid species due to their genome complexity. Recently developed Bayesian statistical methods implemented in available software packages, polyRAD, EBG, and updog, incorporate error rates and population parameters to accurately estimate allelic dosage across any ploidy. We used empirical and simulated data to evaluate the three Bayesian algorithms and demonstrated their impact on the power of genome‐wide association study (GWAS) analysis and the accuracy of genomic prediction. We further incorporated uncertainty in allelic dosage estimation by testing continuous genotype calls and comparing their performance to discrete genotypes in GWAS and genomic prediction. We tested the genotype‐calling methods using data from two autotetraploid species, Miscanthus sacchariflorus and Vaccinium corymbosum , and performed GWAS and genomic prediction. In the empirical study, the tested Bayesian genotype‐calling algorithms differed in their downstream effects on GWAS and genomic prediction, with some showing advantages over others. Through subsequent simulation studies, we observed that at low read depth, polyRAD was advantageous in its effect on GWAS power and limit of false positives. Additionally, we found that continuous genotypes increased the accuracy of genomic prediction, by reducing genotyping error, particularly at low sequencing depth. Our results indicate that by using the Bayesian algorithm implemented in polyRAD and continuous genotypes, we can accurately and cost‐efficiently implement GWAS and genomic prediction in polyploid crops.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1994

Climatic, eustatic, and tectnoic controls on Quarternary deposits and landforms, Red Sea coast, Egypt

The degree to which local climatic variations, eustatic sea level fluctuations, and tectonic uplift have influenced the development of Quaternary marine and fluvial landforms and deposits along the Red Sea coast, Eastern Desert, was investigated using a combination of remote sensing and field data, age determinations of corals, and numerical simulations. False color composites generated from Landsat Thematic Mapper and SPOT image data, digital elevation models derived from sterophotogrammetric analysis of SPOT data, and field observations document that a approximately 10-km wide swath inland from the coast is covered in many places with coalescing alluvial fans of Quaternary age. Wadis cutting through the fans exhibit several pairs of fluvial terraces, and wadi walls expose alluvium interbedded with corraline limestone deposits Further, three distinct coral terraces are evident along the coatline. Climatic, eustatic, and tectonic uplift controls on the overall system were simulated using a cellular automata algorithm with the following characteristics: (1) uplift as a function of position and time, as defined by the elevations and ages of corals; (2) climatic variations driven by insolation changes associated with Milankovitch cycles; (3) sea level fluctuations based on U/Th ages of coral terraces and eustatic data; and (4) parametrized fluvial erosion and deposition. Results imply that the fans and coralline limestones were generated in a setting in which the tectonic uplift rate decreased over the Quarternary to negligible values at present. Coralline limestones formed furing eustatic highstands when alluvium was trapped uspstream and wadis filled with debris. During lowstands, wadis cut into sedimentary deposits; coupled with continuing uplift, fans were dissected, leaving remnant surfaces, and wadi-related terraces were generated by down cutting. Only landforms from the past three to four eustatic sea level cycles (i.e., approximately 300 to 400 kyr) are likely to have survived erosion and deposition associated with fluvial processes.

Arvidson, Raymond↗
NASA NTRS2013

Semi-Supervised Eigenbasis Novelty Detection

Recent discoveries in high-time-resolution radio astronomy data have focused attention on a new class of events. Fast transients are rare pulses of radio frequency energy lasting from microseconds to seconds that might be produced by a variety of exotic astrophysical phenomena. For example, X-ray bursts, neutron stars, and active galactic nuclei are all possible sources of short-duration, transient radio signals. It is difficult to anticipate where such signals might appear, and they are most commonly discovered through analysis of high-time- resolution data that had been collected for other purposes. Transients are often faint and difficult to detect, so improved detection algorithms can directly benefit the science yield of all such commensal monitoring. A new detection algorithm learns a low-dimensional linear manifold for describing the normal data. High reconstruction error indicates a novel signal that does not match the patterns of normal data. One unsupervised portion of the manifold model adapts its representation in response to recent data. A second supervised portion of the model is made of a basis trained in advance using labeled examples of RFI; this prevents false positives due to these events. For a linear model, an orthonormalization operation is used to combine these bases prior to the anomaly detection decision. Another novel aspect of the approach lies in combining basis vectors learned in an unsupervised, online fashion from the data stream with supervised basis vectors learned in advance from known examples of false alarms. Adaptive, data-driven detection is achieved that is also informed by existing domain knowledge about signals that may be statistically anomalous, but are not interesting and should therefore be ignored. The method was evaluated using data from the Parkes Multibeam Survey. This data set was originally collected to search for pulsars, which are astronomical sources that emit radio pulses at regular periods. However, several non-pulsar anomalies have recently been discovered in this dataset, making it a compelling test case. By explicitly filtering known false alarm patterns, the approach yields significantly better performance than current transient detection methods.

Wagstaff, Kiri L.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fragment-based drug nanoaggregation reveals drivers of self-assembly

Drug nanoaggregates are particles that can deleteriously cause false positive results during drug screening efforts, but alternatively, they may be used to improve pharmacokinetics when developed for drug delivery purposes. The structural features of molecules that drive nanoaggregate formation remain elusive, however, and the prediction of intracellular aggregation and rational design of nanoaggregate-based carriers are still challenging. We investigate nanoaggregate self-assembly mechanisms using small molecule fragments to identify the critical molecular forces that contribute to self-assembly. We find that aromatic groups and hydrogen bond acceptors/donors are essential for nanoaggregate formation, suggesting that both π-π stacking and hydrogen bonding are drivers of nanoaggregation. We apply structure-assembly-relationship analysis to the drug sorafenib and discover that nanoaggregate formation can be predicted entirely using drug fragment substructures. We also find that drug nanoaggregates are stabilized in an amorphous core-shell structure. These findings demonstrate that rational design can address intracellular aggregation and pharmacologic/delivery challenges in conventional and fragment-based drug development processes.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS2012

In-Situ Wire Damage Detection System

An In-Situ Wire Damage Detection System (ISWDDS) has been developed that is capable of detecting damage to a wire insulation, or a wire conductor, or to both. The system will allow for realtime, continuous monitoring of wiring health/integrity and reduce the number of false negatives and false positives while being smaller, lighter in weight, and more robust than current systems. The technology allows for improved safety and significant reduction in maintenance hours for aircraft, space vehicles, satellites, and other critical high-performance wiring systems for industries such as energy production and mining. The integrated ISWDDS is comprised of two main components: (1) a wire with an innermost core conductor, an inner insulation film, a conductive layer or inherently conductive polymer (ICP) covering the inner insulation film, an outermost insulation jacket; and (2) smart connectors and electronics capable of producing and detecting electronic signals, and a central processing unit (CPU) for data collection and analysis. The wire is constructed by applying the inner insulation films to the conductor, followed by the outer insulation jacket. The conductive layer or ICP is on the outer surface of the inner insulation film. One or more wires are connected to the CPU using the smart connectors, and up to 64 wires can be monitored in real-time. The ISWDDS uses time domain reflectometry for damage detection. A fast-risetime pulse is injected into either the core conductor or conductive layer and referenced against the other conductor, producing transmission line behavior. If either conductor is damaged, then the signal is reflected. By knowing the speed of propagation of the pulse, and the time it takes to reflect, one can calculate the distance to and location of the damage.

Williams, Martha↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predictive analytics of selections of russet potatoes

We explore the application of machine learning algorithms specifically to enhance the selection process of Russet potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) clones in breeding trials by predicting their suitability for advancement. This study addresses the challenge of efficiently identifying high-yield, disease-resistant, and climate-resilient potato varieties that meet processing industry standards. Leveraging manually collected data from trials in the state of Oregon, we investigate the potential of a wide variety of state-of-the-art binary classification models. The dataset includes 1086 clones, with data on 38 attributes recorded for each clone, focusing on yield, size, appearance, and frying characteristics, with several control varieties planted consistently across four Oregon regions from 2013 to 2021. We conduct a comprehensive analysis of the dataset that includes preprocessing, feature engineering, and imputation to address missing values. We focus on several key metrics such as accuracy, F1-score, and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) for model evaluation. The top-performing models, namely a feedforward neural network classifier (Neural Net), a histogram-based gradient boosting classifier (HGBC), and a support vector machine classifier (SVM), demonstrate consistent and significant results. To further validate our findings, we conducted a simulation study using the aims, data-generating mechanisms, estimands, methods, and performance measures (ADEMP) framework, simulating different data-generating scenarios to assess model robustness and performance through true positive, true negative, false positive, and false negative distributions, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) and MCC. The simulation results highlight that non-linear models like SVM and HGBC consistently show higher AUC-ROC and MCC than logistic regression, thus outperforming the traditional linear model across various distributions, and emphasizing the importance of model selection and tuning in agricultural trials. Variable selection further enhances model performance and identifies influential features in predicting trial outcomes. The findings emphasize the potential of machine learning in streamlining the selection process for potato varieties, offering benefits such as increased efficiency, substantial cost savings, and judicious resource utilization. Our study contributes insights into precision agriculture and showcases the relevance of advanced technologies for informed decision-making in breeding programs.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2001

Facility Concepts for Mars Returned Sample Handling

Samples returned from Mars must be held in quarantine until their biological safety has been determined. A significant challenge, unique to NASA's needs, is how to contain the samples (to protect the blaspheme) while simultaneously protecting their pristine nature. This paper presents a comparative analysis of several quarantine facility concepts for handling and analyzing these samples. The considerations in this design analysis include: modes of manipulation; capability for destructive as well as non-destructive testing; avoidance of cross-contamination; linear versus recursive processing; and sample storage and retrieval within a closed system. The ability to rigorously contain biologically hazardous materials has been amply demonstrated by facilities that meet the specifications of the Center for Disease Control Biosafety Level 4. The newly defined Planetary Protection Level Alpha must provide comparable containment while assuring that the samples remain pristine; the latter requirement is based on the need to avoid compromising science analyses by instrumentation of the highest possible sensitivity (among other things this will assure that there is no false positive detection of organisms or organic molecules - a situation that would delay or prevent the release of the samples from quarantine). Protection of the samples against contamination by terrestrial organisms and organic molecules makes a considerable impact upon the sample handling facility. The use of glove boxes appears to be impractical because of their tendency to leak and to surges. As a result, a returned sample quarantine facility must consider the use of automation and remote manipulation to carry out the various functions of sample handling and transfer within the system. The problem of maintaining sensitive and bulky instrumentation under the constraints of simultaneous sample containment and contamination protection also places demands on the architectural configuration of the facility that houses it.

Cohen, Marc M.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Aircraft Conflict Analysis and Real-Time Conflict Probing Using Probabilistic Trajectory Modeling

Methods for maintaining separation between aircraft in the current airspace system have been built from a foundation of structured routes and evolved procedures. However, as the airspace becomes more congested and the chance of failures or operational error become more problematic, automated conflict alerting systems have been proposed to help provide decision support and to serve as traffic monitoring aids. The problem of conflict detection and resolution has been tackled from a number of different ways, but in this thesis, it is recast as a problem of prediction in the presence of uncertainties. Much of the focus is concentrated on the errors and uncertainties from the working trajectory model used to estimate future aircraft positions. The more accurate the prediction, the more likely an ideal (no false alarms, no missed detections) alerting system can be designed. Additional insights into the problem were brought forth by a review of current operational and developmental approaches found in the literature. An iterative, trial and error approach to threshold design was identified. When examined from a probabilistic perspective, the threshold parameters were found to be a surrogate to probabilistic performance measures. To overcome the limitations in the current iterative design method, a new direct approach is presented where the performance measures are directly computed and used to perform the alerting decisions. The methodology is shown to handle complex encounter situations (3-D, multi-aircraft, multi-intent, with uncertainties) with relative ease. Utilizing a Monte Carlo approach, a method was devised to perform the probabilistic computations in near realtime. Not only does this greatly increase the method's potential as an analytical tool, but it also opens up the possibility for use as a real-time conflict alerting probe. A prototype alerting logic was developed and has been utilized in several NASA Ames Research Center experimental studies.

Yang, Lee C.↗