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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

More Data Needed for Failure Rate Estimation, Validation, and Uncertainty Reduction

The currently planned schedule for advanced Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) development and test activities to support human exploration missions is unlikely to generate sufficient data to enable statistically-supportable, precise Orbital Replacement Unit (ORU) failure rate estimates to meet existing crew safety expectations. Accurate and precise failure rate estimates are critical for missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) because current risk mitigation approaches –namely regular resupply and rapid abort capabilities –will not be available. Safe operations will depend on mission planners’ ability to accurately forecast spares demand and efficiently provide the necessary resources. However, even after more than a decade of International Space Station (ISS) ECLSS operations, a significant amount of uncertainty remains in failure rate estimates. Uncertain or inaccurate failure rates result in increased risk and spares mass. A Bayesian estimation approach, such as the one currently implemented by the ISS Program, can reduce uncertainty by incorporating engineering judgement into failure rate estimates. However, experience on the ISS and with other complex systems shows that these prior failure rate estimates are often inaccurate. In addition, prior estimates are typically point values; some level of uncertainty must be added to convert these into probability distributions for Bayesian updating, and there are several potential methods for doing so. Due to the low rate of data collection, any inaccuracy in theseprior estimates currently hasa strong influence on the end result. This paper examines the challenges associated with failure rate estimation, validation, and uncertainty reduction in the context of ECLSS development for beyond-LEO missions. A variety of techniques for generating and updating Bayesian priors are discussed and evaluated using both real-world and simulated data. Potential solutions for improving failure rate estimation, including testing additional units, are analyzed and discussed, and a set of recommendations are provided for next-generation system development activities.

Reliability↗
NASA NTRS2020

Continued Discussion of Failure Mode Modeling and Overall Component Reliability: Are the Data Missing or Censored?

This paper is the continuation of a paper presented at the 13th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, in which a methodology of modeling failure modes of complex components was presented; see Paulos and Smith (2016). This methodology is not particularly helpful in the space industry where there is a lack of failure data, but is more helpful in industries that see a lot of component repairs and improvements, such as in the aircraft or automotive industries. The previous paper demonstrated how the typical approach of treating failure modes as being exponential in nature may yield optimistic predictions when estimating how improvements to components will perform in the future. It is more accurate to model the failure modes as a race in time; unfortunately, this does not give a closed-form solution. This paper uses simulation to solve for the model of the world, and the results compared to the standard methodology of treating the failure modes as being exponential random failures. The standard method is shown to have optimistic predictions, which will lead to prediction errors when failure modes are removed or “fixed.” The failure mode methodology presented in the first paper treated the data as being censored when the test stopped. In this paper, we will compare the results from treating the data as both censored and missing.

Smith, Curtis↗
NASA NTRS2024

Coronado National Memorial Disasters: Investigating Geohazards & Slope Failure Susceptibility Utilizing NASA Earth Observations

The Coronado National Memorial (CORO), located in Hereford, Arizona, is situated along the United States' southern border, featuring recently established but still incomplete border barrier roads. This landscape is inherently prone to geohazards, and debris flow due to the steep mountainous topography, complex terrain, monsoonal rains, and freeze/thaw action - and the new infrastructure has exhibited these processes in the form of rockfall, embankment failure, and debris flow. NASA DEVELOP partnered with CORO to conduct a feasibility assessment of Earth observations for identification of geohazards and slope failure susceptibility. Leveraging Earth observations (United States Geological Survey 3D Elevation Program Digital Elevation Model and a locally obtained Light Detection And Ranging-derived Digital Elevation Model) from 2019 to 2023, and geospatial datasets starting from 2008, the study was able to provide tools to determine the focus for damage mitigation, identify areas most susceptible to slope failures, and prioritize at risk assets through three products: change detection maps, slope failure susceptibility maps, and a slope failure prioritization model. With an emphasis on monitoring high-risk areas and prioritizing mitigation efforts, the project addresses a critical gap in remediation strategies and aims to enhance preservation and safety of the region. Results of this study found that (i) the most identifiable areas of change were the road cuts and debris directly adjacent to the roads created for border construction, (ii) areas of highest slope failure susceptibility are located in mountainous areas with erosive geology, and (iii) roads resulting from border construction have approximately twice the risk of slope failure as roads created by the national park service.

Geohazard↗
NASA NTRS2005

Failure Assessment

Three questions to which software developers want accurate, precise answers are "How can the software system fail?", "mat bad things will happen if the software fails?t', and "How many failures will the software experience?". Numerous techniques have been devised to answer these questions; three of the best known are: 1) Software Fault Tree Analysis (SFTA) 2) Software Failure Modes, Effects, and Criticality Analysis (SFMECA 3) Software Fault/Failure Modeling. SFTA and SFMECA have been successfully used to analyze the flight software for a number of robotic planetary exploration missions, including Galileo, Cassini, and Deep Space 1. Given the increasing interest in reusing software components from mission to mission, one of us has developed techniques for reusing the corresponding portions of the SFTA and SFMECA, reducing the effort required to conduct these analyses. SFTA has also been shown to be effective in analyzing the security aspects of software systems; intrusion mechanisms and effects can easily be modeled using these techniques. The Bi- Directional Safety Analysis (BDSA) method combines a forward search (similar to SFMECA) from potential failure modes to their effects, with a backward search (similar to SFTA) from feasible hazards to the contributing causes of each hazard. BDSA offers an efficient way to identify latent failures. Recent work has extended BDSA to product-line applications such as flight-instrumentation displays and developed tool support for the reuse of the failure-analysis artifacts within a product line. BDSA has also been streamlined to support those projects having tight cost and/or schedule constraints for their failure analysis efforts. We discuss lessons learned from practice, describe available tools, and identi@ some future directions for the topic. A substantial amount of research has been devoted to estimating the number of failures that a software system will experience during test and operations, as well as the number of faults that have been inserted into that system during its development. One of us has found that the amount of structural change to a system during its development is strongly related to the number of faults inserted into it. Using techniques requiring no additional effort on the part of the development organization, the required measurements of structural evolution can be easily obtained from a development effort's configuration management system and readily transformed into an estimate of fault content. So far, structure-fault relationships have been identified for source code; current work seeks to examine artifacts available earlier in the lifecycle to determine if similar relationships between structure and fault content can be found. In particular, relationships between requirements change requests and the number of faults inserted into the implemented system would provide a significant improvement in our ability to control software quality during the early development phases.

fault tree↗
NASA NTRS1988

An Investigation of the Ability to Recover from Transients Following Failures for Single-Pilot Rotorcraft

A moving-base simulation was conducted to investigate a pilot's ability to recover from transients following single-axis hard-over failures of the flight-control system. The investigation was performed in conjunction with a host simulation that examined the influence of control modes on a single pilot's ability to perform various mission elements under high-workload conditions. The NASA Ames large-amplitude-motion Vertical Motion Simulator (VMS) was utilized, and the experimental variables were the failure axis, the severity of the failure, and the airspeed at which the failure occurred. Other factors, such as pilot workload and terrain and obstacle proximity at the time of failure, were kept as constant as possible within the framework of the host simulation task scenarios. No explicit failure warnings were presented to the pilot. Data from the experiment are shown, and pilot ratings are compared with the proposed handling-qualities requirements for military rotorcraft. Results indicate that the current proposed failure transient requirements may need revision.

Mansur, M. Hossein↗
NASA NTRS1991

Intelligent failure-tolerant control

An overview of failure-tolerant control is presented, beginning with robust control, progressing through parallel and analytical redundancy, and ending with rule-based systems and artificial neural networks. By design or implementation, failure-tolerant control systems are 'intelligent' systems. All failure-tolerant systems require some degrees of robustness to protect against catastrophic failure; failure tolerance often can be improved by adaptivity in decision-making and control, as well as by redundancy in measurement and actuation. Reliability, maintainability, and survivability can be enhanced by failure tolerance, although each objective poses different goals for control system design. Artificial intelligence concepts are helpful for integrating and codifying failure-tolerant control systems, not as alternatives but as adjuncts to conventional design methods.

Stengel, Robert F.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Postbuckling failure of composite plates with central holes

The postbuckling failure of square composite plates with central holes is analyzed numerically and experimentally. The particular plates studies have stacking sequences of: (+ and - 45/0/90)(sub 2S); (+ and - 45/0(sub 2))(sub 2S); (+ and - 45/0(sub 6))(sub S); and (+ and - 45)(sub 4S). A simple plate geometry, one with a hole diameter to plate width ratio of 0.3 is compared. Failure load, failure mode, and failure location are predicted numerically by using the finite element method. Predictions are compared with experimental results. In numerical failure analysis the interlaminar shear stresses, as well as the inplane stresses are taken into account. An issue addressed in this study is the possible mode shape change of the plate during loading. It is predicted that the first three laminates fail due to excessive stresses in the fiber direction, and more importantly, that the load level is independent of whether the laminate is deformed in a one-half or two-half wave configuration. It is predicted that the fourth laminate fails due to excessive inplane shear stress. Interlaminar shear failure is not predicted for any laminates. For the first two laminates the experimental observations correlated well with the predictions. Experimentally, the third laminate failed along the side support due to interlaminar shear strength S(sub 23). The fourth experimental laminate failed due to inplane shear in the location predicted, however material softening resulted in a different failure load from predictions.

Lee, H. H.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Failure environment analysis tool applications

Understanding risks and avoiding failure are daily concerns for the women and men of NASA. Although NASA's mission propels us to push the limits of technology, and though the risks are considerable, the NASA community has instilled within, the determination to preserve the integrity of the systems upon which our mission and, our employees lives and well-being depend. One of the ways this is being done is by expanding and improving the tools used to perform risk assessment. The Failure Environment Analysis Tool (FEAT) was developed to help engineers and analysts more thoroughly and reliably conduct risk assessment and failure analysis. FEAT accomplishes this by providing answers to questions regarding what might have caused a particular failure; or, conversely, what effect the occurrence of a failure might have on an entire system. Additionally, FEAT can determine what common causes could have resulted in other combinations of failures. FEAT will even help determine the vulnerability of a system to failures, in light of reduced capability. FEAT also is useful in training personnel who must develop an understanding of particular systems. FEAT facilitates training on system behavior, by providing an automated environment in which to conduct 'what-if' evaluation. These types of analyses make FEAT a valuable tool for engineers and operations personnel in the design, analysis, and operation of NASA space systems.

Pack, Ginger L.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Failure environment analysis tool applications

Understanding risks and avoiding failure are daily concerns for the women and men of NASA. Although NASA's mission propels us to push the limits of technology, and though the risks are considerable, the NASA community has instilled within it, the determination to preserve the integrity of the systems upon which our mission and, our employees lives and well-being depend. One of the ways this is being done is by expanding and improving the tools used to perform risk assessment. The Failure Environment Analysis Tool (FEAT) was developed to help engineers and analysts more thoroughly and reliably conduct risk assessment and failure analysis. FEAT accomplishes this by providing answers to questions regarding what might have caused a particular failure; or, conversely, what effect the occurrence of a failure might have on an entire system. Additionally, FEAT can determine what common causes could have resulted in other combinations of failures. FEAT will even help determine the vulnerability of a system to failures, in light of reduced capability. FEAT also is useful in training personnel who must develop an understanding of particular systems. FEAT facilitates training on system behavior, by providing an automated environment in which to conduct 'what-if' evaluation. These types of analyses make FEAT a valuable tool for engineers and operations personnel in the design, analysis, and operation of NASA space systems.

Pack, Ginger L.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Electrostatic Discharge (ESD) Failures in Thin Film Resistors

Field failures of nichrome thin film resistors have been investigated recently for several pieces of space flight hardware. These failures have involved resistance shifts ranging from a few percent to complete open circuits. Failure analysis and duplication of these failures have revealed that the failures were caused by electrostatic discharge. The failure characteristics and the circuit conditions necessary for failure have been studied for several types of thin film resistors including nichrome and tantalum nitride resistive elements. The effects of latent damage and resistive pattern design will also be discussed.

Hull, Scott M.↗
NASA NTRS2000

A Study of Single Crystal Fatigue Failure Criteria

This paper presents the results of a study whose objective was to study the applicability of different failure equations in modeling low cycle fatigue (LCF) test data for single crystal test specimens. A total of four failure criteria were considered in this study. One of the failure equations was developed by Pratt & Whitney and is based on normal and shear strains on the primary crystallographic slip planes of the single crystal material. Other failure equations considered are based on isotropic criteria. Because these failure equations were originally developed for isotropic materials such as structural steel, they were modified to be applicable to the single crystal slip systems of the LCF specimen material. By observing how closely the various equations were able to reduce the scatter in the LCF test data, the applicability of those equations in modeling the LCF test data was assessed. It is desired to subsequently use the failure equation with the highest correlation in the development of a new single crystal failure criterion for the Alternative Turbopump Development (ATD) for the space shuttle main engine (SSME) High Pressure Fuel Turbopump (HPFTP).

Sayyah, Tarek↗
NASA NTRS2001

A Study of Failure Criteria of Fibrous Composite Materials

The research described in this paper is focused on two areas: (1) evaluation of existing composite failure criteria in the nonlinear, explicit transient dynamic finite element code, MSC.Dytran, and (2) exploration of the possibilities for modification of material and failure models to account for large deformations, progressive failure, and interaction of damage accumulation with stress/strain response of laminated composites. Following a review of the MSC.Dytran user manual, a bibliographical review of existing failure criteria of composites was performed. The papers considered most interesting for the objective of this report are discussed in section 2. The failure criteria included in the code under consideration are discussed in section 3. A critical summary of the present procedures to perform analysis and design of composites is presented in section 4. A study of the most important historical failure criteria for fibrous composite materials and some of the more recent modifications proposed were studied. The result of this analysis highlighted inadequacies in the existing failure criteria and the need to perform some numerical analyses to elucidate the answer to questions on which some of the proposed criteria are based. A summary of these ideas, which is a proposal of studies to be developed, is presented in section 5. Finally, some ideas for future developments are summarized in section 6.

Paris, Federico↗
NASA NTRS2001

High Fidelity Failure Analysis for a Composite Fuselage Section

A high fidelity delamination failure analysis was developed by combining a local failure analysis with a global full-scale finite element structural analysis to address strength and delamination failure in a single package. The methodology was demonstrated through a local three-dimensional pull-off failure analysis and a geometrically nonlinear structural analysis of a five-foot composite helicopter fuselage section. Pull-off specimens were used to identify potential debonding failure of co-cured skin-stringer/frame fuselage structures. An investigation of the failed pull-off specimens was performed to determine the location of the failure initiation. Three-dimensional strain energy release rate analysis indicates that the delamination initiation and growth is controlled by Mode 1 opening mode. The bending moment at the delamination tip was identified as the crucial factor controlling the failure. The geometrically nonlinear structural analysis of a five-foot composite fuselage section was performed using a detailed finite element model. Loads were applied along the periphery of the subcomponent using displacement fields generated from solutions of a full-vehicle model.

Li, Jain↗
NASA NTRS2001

Global Failure Modes in Composite Structures

Composite materials provide well-known advantages for space and aeronautical applications in terms of strength and rigidity to weight ratios and other mechanical properties. As a consequence, their use has experienced a constant increase in the past decades and it is anticipated that this trend will be maintained in the near future. At the same time, being these materials relatively new compared to metals, and having failure characteristics completely different from them, their damage growth and their failure mechanisms are not as well understood in a predictive sense. For example, while in metals fracture produces "clean" cracks with their well defined analytically stress fields at the crack tip, composite fracture is a more complex phenomenon. Instead of a crack, we confront a "damage zone" that may include fiber breakage, fiber microbuckling, fiber pullout, matrix cracking, delamination, debonding or any combination of all these different mechanisms. These phenomena are prevalent in any failure process through an aircraft structure, whether one addresses a global failure such as the ripping of a fuselage or wing section, or whether one is concerned with the failure initiation near a thickness change at stringers or other reinforcement. Thus the topic that has been under consideration has wide application in any real structure and is considered an essential contribution to the predictive failure analysis capability for aircraft containing composite components. The heterogeneity and the anisotropy of composites are not only advantageous but essential characteristics, yet these same features provide complex stress fields, especially in the presence of geometrical discontinuities such as notches, holes or cutouts or structural elements such as stiffeners, stringers, etc. To properly address the interaction between a damage/crack front and a hole with a stringer it is imperative that the stress and deformation fields of the former be (sufficiently well) characterized. The question of "scaling" is an essential concern in any structural materials investigation. For example, experiments in the past have shown that the "strength" of a composite depends on hole size. As a consequence the validity of traditional fracture mechanics concepts applied to composite materials failure must be questioned. The size of the fibers, the dimensions of the laminae, etc. together with the fact that, because of the layered anisotropy, the stress field is no longer two-dimensional, prevent the otherwise obviously confident use of "similarity concepts". Therefore, the question needs to be raised of whether in composites "size matters or not", i.e., whether the results obtained in a laboratory using small coupons are truly representative of the situation involving a full scale component.

Knauss, W. G.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Failure Criteria for FRP Laminates in Plane Stress

A new set of six failure criteria for fiber reinforced polymer laminates is described. Derived from Dvorak's fracture mechanics analyses of cracked plies and from Puck's action plane concept, the physically-based criteria, denoted LaRC03, predict matrix and fiber failure accurately without requiring curve-fitting parameters. For matrix failure under transverse compression, the fracture plane is calculated by maximizing the Mohr-Coulomb effective stresses. A criterion for fiber kinking is obtained by calculating the fiber misalignment under load, and applying the matrix failure criterion in the coordinate frame of the misalignment. Fracture mechanics models of matrix cracks are used to develop a criterion for matrix in tension and to calculate the associated in-situ strengths. The LaRC03 criteria are applied to a few examples to predict failure load envelopes and to predict the failure mode for each region of the envelope. The analysis results are compared to the predictions using other available failure criteria and with experimental results. Predictions obtained with LaRC03 correlate well with the experimental results.

Davila, Carlos G.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Evaluation of a Progressive Failure Analysis Methodology for Laminated Composite Structures

A progressive failure analysis methodology has been developed for predicting the nonlinear response and failure of laminated composite structures. The progressive failure analysis uses C plate and shell elements based on classical lamination theory to calculate the in-plane stresses. Several failure criteria, including the maximum strain criterion, Hashin's criterion, and Christensen's criterion, are used to predict the failure mechanisms. The progressive failure analysis model is implemented into a general purpose finite element code and can predict the damage and response of laminated composite structures from initial loading to final failure.

Sleight, David W.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Approximation of Failure Probability Using Conditional Sampling

In analyzing systems which depend on uncertain parameters, one technique is to partition the uncertain parameter domain into a failure set and its complement, and judge the quality of the system by estimating the probability of failure. If this is done by a sampling technique such as Monte Carlo and the probability of failure is small, accurate approximation can require so many sample points that the computational expense is prohibitive. Previous work of the authors has shown how to bound the failure event by sets of such simple geometry that their probabilities can be calculated analytically. In this paper, it is shown how to make use of these failure bounding sets and conditional sampling within them to substantially reduce the computational burden of approximating failure probability. It is also shown how the use of these sampling techniques improves the confidence intervals for the failure probability estimate for a given number of sample points and how they reduce the number of sample point analyses needed to achieve a given level of confidence.

Giesy. Daniel P.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Lunar Base Life Support Failures

Dynamic simulation of the lunar outpost habitat life support was undertaken to investigate the impact of life support failures and to investigate responses. Some preparatory static analysis for the Lunar Outpost life support model, an earlier version of the model, and an investigation into the impact of Extravehicular Activity (EVA) were reported previously. (Jones, 2008-01-2184, 2008-01-2017) The earlier model was modified to include possible resupply delays, power failures, recycling system failures, and atmosphere and other material storage failures. Most failures impact the lunar outpost water balance and can be mitigated by reducing water usage. Food solids, nitrogen can be obtained only by resupply from Earth. The most time urgent failure is a lass of carbon dioxide removal capability. Life support failures might be survivable if effective operational solutions are provided in the system design.

Jones, Harry W.↗