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At least 127 records · Page 7

Analytical study of the origin and behavior of asymmetric vortices

An hypothesis advanced originally to explain computational observations is supported by theoretical considerations: The asymmetric mean flow observed on bodies of revolution at moderate to high angles of attack is the result of a convective instability of an originally symmetric flow to a time-invariant space-fixed disturbance. Additionally, the time-dependent fluctuations characteristic of the flow at higher angles of attack (up to 90 deg) are the result of an absolute instability of an originally steady flow to a small temporal disturbance of finite duration. Within a common domain, the instability mechanisms may coexist. The experimentally confirmed existence of bistable states, wherein the side-force variation with nose roll angle approaches a square-wave distribution, is attributed to the dominant influence of a pair of trailing vortices from the ogival forebody. Their existence is made possible by the appearance of foci of separation in the skin-friction line pattern beyond a critical angle of attack. The extreme sensitivity of the asymmetric flow orientation to nose geometry, demonstrated experimentally, is attributed to the presence of an indeterminate phase in the family of possible solutions for the three-dimensional wave system.

Tobak, Murray↗

Development of a calibrated software reliability model for flight and supporting ground software for avionic systems

The object of this project was to develop and calibrate quantitative models for predicting the quality of software. Reliable flight and supporting ground software is a highly important factor in the successful operation of the space shuttle program. The models used in the present study consisted of SMERFS (Statistical Modeling and Estimation of Reliability Functions for Software). There are ten models in SMERFS. For a first run, the results obtained in modeling the cumulative number of failures versus execution time showed fairly good results for our data. Plots of cumulative software failures versus calendar weeks were made and the model results were compared with the historical data on the same graph. If the model agrees with actual historical behavior for a set of data then there is confidence in future predictions for this data. Considering the quality of the data, the models have given some significant results, even at this early stage. With better care in data collection, data analysis, recording of the fixing of failures and CPU execution times, the models should prove extremely helpful in making predictions regarding the future pattern of failures, including an estimate of the number of errors remaining in the software and the additional testing time required for the software quality to reach acceptable levels. It appears that there is no one 'best' model for all cases. It is for this reason that the aim of this project was to test several models. One of the recommendations resulting from this study is that great care must be taken in the collection of data. When using a model, the data should satisfy the model assumptions.

Lawrence, Stella↗

A 10-GHz amplifier using an epitaxial lift-off pseudomorphic HEMT device

A process to integrate epitaxial lift-off devices and microstrip circuits has been demonstrated using a pseudomorphic HEMT on an alumina substrate. The circuit was a 10 GHz amplifier with the interconnection between the device and the microstrip circuit being made with photolithographically patterned metal. The measured and modeled response correlated extremely well with a maximum gain of 6.8 dB and a return loss of -14 dB at 10.4 GHz.

Young, Paul G.↗

Advanced High Brilliance X-Ray Source

The possibility to dramatically increase the efficiency of laboratory based protein structure measurements through the use of polycapillary X-ray optics was investigated. This project initiated April 1, 1993 and concluded December 31, 1996 (including a no cost extension from June 31, 1996). This is a final report of the project. The basis for the project is the ability to collect X-rays from divergent electron bombardment laboratory X-ray sources and redirect them into quasiparallel or convergent (focused) beams. For example, a 0.1 radian (approx. 6 deg) portion of a divergent beam collected by a polycapillary collimator and transformed into a quasiparallel beam of 3 millradian (0.2 deg) could give a gain of 6(exp 2)/0.2(exp 2) x T for the intensity of a diffracted beam from a crystal with a 0.2 deg diffraction width. T is the transmission efficiency of the polycapillary diffraction optic, and for T=0.5, the gain would be 36/0.04 x O.5=45. In practice, the effective collection angle will depend on the source spot size, the input focal length of the optic (usually limited by the source spot-to-window distance on the x-ray tube) and the size of the crystal relative to the output diameter of the optic. The transmission efficiency, T, depends on the characteristics (fractional open area, surface roughness, shape and channel diameter) of the polycapillary optic and is typically in the range 0.2-0.4. These effects could substantially reduce the expected efficiency gain. During the course of this study, the possibility to use a weakly focused beam (0.5 deg convergence) was suggested which could give an additional 10-20 X efficiency gain for small samples . Weakly focused beams from double focusing mirrors are frequently used for macromolecular crystallography studies. Furthermore the crystals are typically oscillated by as much as 2 deg during each X-ray exposure in order to increase the reciprocal space (number of crystal planes) sampled and use of a slightly convergent beam could, in principle, provide a similar sampling benefit without oscillation. Although more problematic, because of complications in analyzing the diffraction patterns, it was also suggested that even more extreme beam convergence might be used to give another order of magnitude intensity gain and even smaller focused spot size which could make it possible to study smaller protein crystals than can be studied using standard laboratory based X-ray diffraction systems. This project represents the first systematic investigation of these possibilities. As initially proposed, the contract included requirements for design, purchase, evaluation and delivery of three polycapillary lenses to the Laboratory for Structural Biology at MSFC and demonstration of such optics at MSFC for selected protein crystal diffraction applications.

Gibson, Walter M.↗

A Normal Incidence X-ray Telescope (NIXT) Sounding Rocket Payload

The solar corona, and the coronae of solar-type stars, consist of a low-density magnetized plasma at temperatures exceeding 10(exp 6) K. The primary coronal emission is therefore in the UV and soft X-ray range. The observed close connection between solar magnetic fields and the physical parameters of the corona implies a fundamental role for the magnetic field in coronal structuring and dynamics. Variability of the corona occurs on all temporal and spatial scales - at one extreme, as the result of plasma instabilities, and at the other extreme driven by the global magnetic flux emergence patterns of the solar cycle.

Golub, Leon↗

Sub-Optical Lithography With Nanometer Definition Masks

Nanometer feature size lithography represents a major paradigm shift for the electronics and micro-electro-mechanical industries. In this paper, we discuss the capacity of dynamic focused reactive ion beam (FIB) etching systems to undertake direct and highly anisotropic erosion of thick evaporated gold coatings on boron-doped silicon X-ray mask membranes. FIB offers a new level of flexibility in micro fabrication, allowing for fast fabrication of X-ray masks, where pattern definition and surface alteration are combined in the same step which eliminates the whole lithographic process, in particular resist, resist development, electro-deposition and resist removal. Focused ion beam diameters as small as 7 nm can be obtained enabling fabrication well into the sub-20 nm regime. In preliminary demonstrations of this X-ray mask fabrication technique 22 nm width lines were milled directly through 0.9 microns of gold and a miniature mass spectrometer pattern was milled through over 0.5 microns of gold. Also presented are the results of the shadow printing, using the large depth of field of synchrotron high energy parallel X-ray beam, of these and other sub-optical defined patterns in photoresist conformally coated over surfaces of extreme topographical variation. Assuming that electronic circuits and/or micro devices scale proportionally, the surface area of devices processed with X-ray lithography and 20 nm critical dimension X-ray masks would be 0.5% that of contemporary devices (350 nm CD). The 20 CD mask fabrication represents an initial effort - a further factor of three reduction is anticipated which represents a further order-of-magnitude reduction in die area.

Hartley, Frank T.↗

Global Climate Change, Food Security and the U.S. Food System

Climate change influences on the major pillars of food security. Each of the four elements of food security (availability,access,utilization,andstability) is vulnerable to changes in climate. For example,reductions in production related to regional drought influence food availability at multiple scales. Changes in price influences the ability of certain populations to purchase food (access). Utilization maybe affected when production zones shift, reducing the availability of preferred or culturally appropriate types of food within a region. Stability of the food supply may be highly uncertain given an increased incidence of extreme climatic events and their influence on production patterns.

Climate↗

Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture: Challenges, Opportunities, and AgMIP Frameworks for Foresight

Agricultural systems are currently undergoing rapid shifts owing to socioeconomic development, technological change, population growth, economic opportunity, evolving demand for commodities, and the need for sustainability amid global environmental change. It is not sufficient to maintain current harvest levels; rather, there is a need to rapidly increase production in light of a population growing to nearly 10 billion by mid-century and to more than 11 billion by 2100 (FAO, 2016; UN, 2016; Popkin et al., 2012). Current and future agricultural systems are additionally burdened by human-caused climate change, the result of accumulating greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions, ecological destruction, and land use changes that have altered the chemical composition of Earth’s atmosphere and trapped energy in the Earth system (IPCC, 2013; Porter et al., 2014). This increased energy has already raised average surface temperatures by approximately 1 degree Centigrade (GISTEMP Team, 2017; Hansen et al., 2010), leading early on to the term “global warming,” but this phenomenon is now more accurately referred to as “climate change” because it also modifies atmospheric circulation, adjusts regional and seasonal precipitation patterns, and shifts the distribution and characteristics of extreme events (Bindoff et al., 2013; Collins et al., 2013). Food and health systems face increasing risk owing to progressive climate change now manifesting itself as more frequent, severe extreme weather events—heat waves, droughts, and floods (IPCC, 2013). Often without warning, weather-related shocks can have catastrophic and reverberating impacts on the increasingly exposed global food system—through production, processing, distribution, retail, disposal, and waste. Simultaneously, malnutrition and ill health are arising from lack of access to nutritious food, exacerbated in crises such as food price spikes or shortages. For some countries, particularly import-dependent low-income countries, weather shocks and price spikes can lead to social unrest, famine, and migration.

Ruane, Alex C.↗

Toward The Development of Hailstorm Climatologies Derived From Reanalyses and Infared/Passive Microwave Satellite Imagers

Geostationary satellite imagers, such as those of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) and Meteosat series, provide both historical and near-real-time observations of cloud top patterns that are commonly associated with severe convection. Environmental conditions favorable for severe weather are thought to be represented well by reanalyses. Predicting exactly where convection and costly storm hazards like hail will occur using models or satellite imagery alone, however, is extremely challenging. The multivariate combination of satellite-observed cloud patterns with reanalysis environmental parameters, linked to United States Next Generation Weather Radar- (NEXRAD-) estimated Maximum Expected Size of Hail (MESH) using a deep neural network (DNN), enables estimation of potentially severe hail likelihood for any observed storm cell. These estimates are specifically designed to make hail likelihood distinctions based on satellite-indicated points of deep convection within environments favorable for storm development. We seek an approach that can be used to estimate climatological hailstorm frequency and risk throughout the historical satellite data record. This presentation demonstrates that statistical distributions of convective parameters from satellite and reanalysis show separation between non-severe/severe hailstorm classes for predictors including overshooting cloud top temperature and area characteristics, convective available potential energy, vertical wind shear, 500 hPa temperature, mid-level lapse rate, precipitable water, and convective inhibition. These complex, multivariate predictor relationships are exploited within a DNN to produce a hail likelihood metric with a critical success index of 0.504 and Heidke skill score of 0.403, which is exceptional among recent analogous hail studies. Furthermore, applications of the DNN to select case studies demonstrate good qualitative agreement between hail likelihood and MESH. These hail classifications are aggregated across an 11-year GOES-12/13 image database to derive a hail frequency and severity climatology, which denotes the Central Plains, the Midwest, and northwestern Mexico as being the most hail-prone regions within the domain studied. Opportunities for training and applying DNN-based hailstorm predictions to recently developed GOES-8/10/12/13/16 and Meteosat Second Generation convective storm detection and characterization climatologies over South America and South Africa, respectively, will also be presented.

Kristopher Bedka↗

Porosity and Variations in Microgravity Aerogel Nano-Structures: New Laser Speckle Characterization Methods - 2

The transition from sol to gel is a process that is critical to the properties of engineered nanomaterials, but one with few available techniques for observing the dynamic processes occurring during the evolution of the gel network. Specifically, the observation of various cluster aggregation models, such as diffusion-limited and reaction-limited cluster growth can be quite difficult. This can be rather important as the actual aggregation model can dramatically influence the mechanical properties of gels, and is significantly affected by the presence of convective flows, or their absence in microgravity. We have developed two new non-intrusive optical methods for observing the aggregation processes within gels in real time. These make use of the dynamic behavior of laser speckle patterns produced when an intense laser source is passed through a gelling sol. The first method is a simplified time-correlation measurement, where the speckle pattern is observed using a CCD camera and information on the movement of the scattering objects is readily apparent. This approach is extremely sensitive to minute variations in the flow field as the observed speckle pattern is a diffraction-based image, and is therefore sensitive to motions within the sol on the order of the wavelength of the probing light. Additionally, this method has proven useful in determining a precise time for the gel-point, an event often difficult to measure. Monitoring the evolution of contrast within the speckle field is another method that has proven useful for studying aeration. In this case, speckle contrast is dependent upon the size (correlation length) and number of scattering centers, increasing with increasing size, and decreasing with increasing numbers. The dynamic behavior of cluster growth in gels causes both of these to change simultaneously with time, the exact rate of which is determined by the specific aggregation model involved. Actual growth processes can now be observed, and the effects of varying gravity fields on the growth processes qualitatively described. Results on preliminary ground-based measurements have been obtained.

Hunt, A. J.↗

Climate Change: A New Metric to Measure Changes in the Frequency of Extreme Temperatures using Record Data

Consensus on global warming is the result of multiple and varying lines of evidence, and one key ramification is the increase in frequency of extreme climate events including record high temperatures. Here we develop a metric- called "record equivalent draws" (RED)-based on record high (low) temperature observations, and show that changes in RED approximate changes in the likelihood of extreme high (low) temperatures. Since we also show that this metric is independent of the specifics of the underlying temperature distributions, RED estimates can be aggregated across different climates to provide a genuinely global assessment of climate change. Using data on monthly average temperatures across the global landmass we find that the frequency of extreme high temperatures increased 10-fold between the first three decades of the last century (1900-1929) and the most recent decade (1999-2008). A more disaggregated analysis shows that the increase in frequency of extreme high temperatures is greater in the tropics than in higher latitudes, a pattern that is not indicated by changes in mean temperature. Our RED estimates also suggest concurrent increases in the frequency of both extreme high and extreme low temperatures during 2002-2008, a period when we observe a plateauing of global mean temperature. Using daily extreme temperature observations, we find that the frequency of extreme high temperatures is greater in the daily minimum temperature time-series compared to the daily maximum temperature time-series. There is no such observable difference in the frequency of extreme low temperatures between the daily minimum and daily maximum.

Munasinghe, L.↗

Turbulent Heat Flux, Downward Longwave Radiation, and Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Associated with Wintertime Barents–Kara Sea Extreme Sea Ice Loss Events

We investigate wintertime extreme sea ice loss events on synoptic to subseasonal time scales over the Barents–Kara Sea, where the largest sea ice variability is located. Consistent with previous studies, extreme sea ice loss events are associated with moisture intrusions over the Barents–Kara Sea, which are driven by the large-scale atmospheric circulation. In addition to the role of downward longwave radiation associated with moisture intrusions, which is emphasized by previous studies, our analysis shows that strong turbulent heat fluxes are associated with extreme sea ice melting events, with both turbulent sensible and latent heat fluxes contributing, although turbulent sensible heat fluxes dominate. Our analysis also shows that these events are connected to tropical convective anomalies. A dipole pattern of convective anomalies with enhanced convection over the Maritime Continent and suppressed convection over the central to eastern Pacific is consistently detected about 6–10 days prior to extreme sea ice loss events. This pattern is associated with either the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) or El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Composites show that extreme sea ice loss events are connected to tropical convection via Rossby wave propagation in the midlatitudes. However, tropical convective anomalies alone are not sufficient to trigger extreme sea ice loss events, suggesting that extratropical variability likely modulates the connection between tropical convection and extreme sea ice loss events.

Arctic↗

Turbulent Heat Flux, Downward Longwave Radiation and Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Associated with the Wintertime Barents-Kara Sea Extreme Sea Ice Loss Events

We investigate wintertime extreme sea ice loss events on synoptic to subseasonal time scales over the Barents-Kara Sea, where the largest sea ice variability is located. Consistent with previous studies, extreme sea ice loss events are associated with moisture intrusions over the Barents-Kara Sea, which are driven by the large-scale atmospheric circulation. In addition to the role of downward longwave radiation associated with moisture intrusions, which is emphasized by previous studies, our analysis shows strong turbulent heat fluxes are associated with extreme sea ice melting events, with both turbulent sensible and latent heat fluxes contributing, though turbulent sensible heat fluxes dominate. Our analysis also shows that these events are connected to tropical convective anomalies. A dipole pattern of convective anomalies with enhanced convection over the Maritime Continent and suppressed convection over the central to eastern Pacific is consistently detected about 6 to 10 days prior to extreme sea ice loss events. This pattern is associated with either the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) or El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Composites show that extreme sea ice loss events are connected to tropical convection via Rossby wave propagation in the midlatitudes. However, tropical convective anomalies alone are not sufficient to trigger extreme sea ice loss events, suggesting that extratropical variability likely modulates the connection between tropical convection and extreme sea ice loss events.

Turbulent heat flux↗

Impacts of Resolution on Heavy‐Precipitating Storms in Climate Model Hindcasts

The present study investigates the impact of horizontal resolutions on heavy‐precipitating storms using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version2 (E3SMv2) at low (∼100 km, LR) and high (∼25 km, HR) resolutions through short‐range hindcasts. The short‐range hindcast approach ensures a faithful comparison of model resolution in simulating the same storm events under a controlled large‐scale environment. Using a phenomenon‐based framework, we attribute precipitation to specific storm types: tropical cyclones (TCs), extratropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers, and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Our findings show that E3SM hindcasts with both HR and LR configurations significantly underestimate storm‐associated precipitation intensity but overestimate precipitation from other sources. Furthermore, both HR and LR hindcasts face significant challenges in accurately simulating extreme precipitation events, particularly over MCS hotspots. Nevertheless, HR simulations capture more detailed and intense precipitation patterns with an improved representation of storm dynamics. HR hindcasts produce 16% more storm precipitation compared to LR. For precipitation extremes, HR simulates a 33% higher 99th percentile precipitation magnitudes compared to LR, and most of the increment comes from these four heavy‐precipitating storm types. The increase in precipitation mainly comes from stratiform precipitation rather than convective precipitation. The improvement in HR simulations varies across different storm types with TC showing the largest improvement. The phenomenon‐based approach provides important insights into precipitation simulations especially for extremes. Our results emphasize the need for further refinement in high‐resolution models to improve the accuracy of precipitation predictions, which is crucial for better understanding and mitigating climate change impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Heat exposure and maternal stress: evidence from the GRAPHS pregnancy cohort in Ghana

Heat exposure has been linked to psychosocial stress, an established antecedent of perinatal depression; however, evidence on heat-related stress during pregnancy in sub-Saharan Africa remains limited. We analyzed psychosocial stress scores and covariate data from the Ghana Randomized Air Pollution and Health Study, linking daily maximum and minimum shaded wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) metrics to participants’ stress scores derived from the Crisis in Family Systems-Revised Life Events Questionnaire. We evaluated associations using ordinal logistic regression of pregnancy-average and trimester-average exposures and distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs) to assess time-varying associations across gestation. Higher average maximum WBGT exposure across pregnancy was associated with increased odds of higher psychosocial stress; each 1 °C increase in maximum WBGT was associated with 64% higher odds of belonging to a higher stress category (OR = 1.64; 95% CI = 1.17–2.31; p = 0.0040). In trimester-average models, higher first-trimester maximum WBGT was also associated with higher stress (OR = 1.44; 95% CI = 1.15–1.81; p = 0.0014). DLNMs suggested that relatively cooler daily maximum WBGT values (25th percentile) were associated with decreased odds of stress in early pregnancy, whereas extreme daily maximum WBGT values (99th percentile) showed a pattern consistent with increased odds of stress in mid-to-late gestation. These findings highlight gestational windows in which heat exposure may influence stress, emphasizing the need for further research into underlying mechanisms and effective interventions to protect maternal mental health in heat-vulnerable settings.

White, Lewis [Columbia University] (ORCID:00090005↗

The Kinematically Hot, Extremely Metal-poor C-19 Stellar Stream in DESI DR2

Stellar streams are the result of a host galaxy’s gravitational potential tidally disrupting satellite dwarf galaxies and globular clusters (GCs), causing them to grow leading and trailing tidal tails. The C-19 stellar stream is an extremely metal-poor stellar population, showing chemical abundance patterns characteristic of a GC. However, its large velocity dispersion is difficult to reconcile with a conventional, purely baryonic, disrupting-GC progenitor. Current techniques for stream characterization are primarily applied to Gaia DR3, relying heavily on proper-motion measurements. Using the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), which provides radial velocities and metallicities for over 10 million stars and reaches significantly fainter magnitudes than comparable surveys, we employ a mixture model approach to jointly characterize stream populations in proper motions, radial velocities, and metallicities against a Milky Way halo background. By applying this framework to the C-19 stellar stream, we identify a total of 47 spectroscopically confirmed member stars, of which 41 are newly identified and only 6 were previously reported in the literature. In this work, we measure a velocity dispersion of $7.8^{+1.5}_{-1.3}$km s −1 and a mean metallicity of [Fe/H] = $-3.36^{+0.12}_{-0.10}$. We further identify a novel “spur” feature within the stream. We conclude that our measurements are in line with previous works identifying C-19 as a “hot,” metal-poor stream. In forthcoming work, we will apply this approach to many more streams in the DESI footprint, enabling population-level comparisons with predictions from simulations.

Mohammed, Nasser [University of Toronto; Dunlap In↗

Assessment of a 3-D boundary layer code to predict heat transfer and flow losses in a turbine

The prediction of the complete flow field in a turbine passage is an extremely difficult task due to the complex three dimensional pattern which contains separation and attachment lines, a saddle point and horseshoe vortex. Whereas, in principle such a problem can be solved using full Navier-Stokes equations, in reality methods based on a Navier-Stokes solution procedure encounter difficulty in accurately predicting surface quantities (e.g., heat transfer) due to grid limitations imposed by the speed and size of the existing computers. On the other hand the overall problem is strongly three dimensional and too complex to be analyzed by the current design methods based on inviscid and/or viscous strip theories. Thus there is a strong need for enhancing the current prediction techniques through inclusion of 3-D viscous effects. A potentially simple and cost effective way to achieve this is to use a prediction method based on three dimensional boundary layer (3-DBL) theory. The major objective of this program is to assess the applicability of such a 3-DBL approach for the prediction of heat loads, boundary layer growth, pressure losses and streamline skewing in critical areas of a turbine passage. A brief discussion of the physical problem addressed here along with the overall approach is presented.

Vatsa, V. N.↗