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At least 127 records · Page 7

Response of the Antarctic Stratosphere to Two Types of El Nino Events

This study is the first to identify a robust El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal in the Antarctic stratosphere. El Nino events are classified as either conventional "cold tongue" events (positive SST anomalies in the Nino 3 region) or "warm pool" events (positive SST anomalies in the Nino 4 region). The ERA-40, NCEP and MERRA meteorological reanalyses are used to show that the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere responds differently to these two types of El Nino events. Consistent with previous studies, "cold tongue" events do not impact temperatures in the Antarctic stratosphere. During "warm pool" El Nino events, the poleward extension and increased strength of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) favor an enhancement of planetary wave activity during the SON season. On average, these conditions lead to higher polar stratospheric temperatures and a weakening of the Antarctic polar jet in November and December, as compared with neutral ENSO years. The phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) modulates the stratospheric response to "warm pool" El Nino events: the strongest planetary wave driving events are coincident with the easterly phase of the QBO.

Hurwitz, M. M.↗

Ion Anisotropy and High-Energy Variability of Large Solar Particle Events: A Comparative Study

We have made comparative studies of ion anisotropy and high-energy variability of solar energetic particle (SEP) events previously examined by the Solar, Heliospheric, and Interplanetary Environment (SHINE) Workshop campaign. We have found distinctly different characteristics of SEPs between two large "gradual" events having very similar solar progenitors (the 2002 April 21 and August 24 events). Since the scattering centers of SEPs are approximately frozen in the solar wind, we emphasize work in the solar-wind frame where SEPs tend to be isotropized, and small anisotropies are easier to detect. While in the August event no streaming reversal occurred, in the April event the field-aligned anisotropy of all heavy ions showed sign of streaming reversal. The difference in streaming reversal was consistent with the difference in the presence of the outer reflecting boundary. In the April event the magnetic mirror, which was located behind the interplanetary shock driven by the preceding coronal mass ejection (CME), could block the stream of SEPs, while in the August event SEPs escaped freely because of the absence of nearby boundary. The magnetic mirror was formed at the bottleneck of magnetic field lines draped around a flank of the preceding CME. In the previous SHINE event analysis the contrasting event durations and Fe/O ratios of the both events were explained as the interplay between shock geometry and seed population. Our new findings, however, indicate that event duration and time as well as spectral variation are also affected by the presence of a nearby reflecting boundary.

Tan, Lun C.↗

Evaluating precipitation, streamflow, and inundation forecasting skills during extreme weather events: A case study for an urban watershed

Integrated forecasting systems for precipitation, streamflow, and floodplain inundation are of critical importance in mitigating the impacts of destructive floods caused by extreme weather events. However, the skills of streamflow and floodplain inundation forecasts derived from various Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) require a greater level of understanding. In this paper, a set of QPF developed by the National Weather Service (NWS) were used to drive a flood modeling system obtained utilizing offline coupling of a physics-based distributed hydrological model, the Distributed Hydrology Soil and Vegetation Model (DHSVM), and a hydrodynamic model, the Two-dimensional Runoff Inundation Toolkit for Operational Needs (TRITON). This flood modeling system was used to produce forecasts of streamflow and floodplain inundation maps during three major flood events in the Brays Bayou Watershed (Houston, Texas, USA) for a range of QPF durations (6–72 h). Then, to investigate the effects of increasing QPF durations on the forecasts, the forecasting skills of precipitation, streamflow, and floodplain inundation were quantified. The results show that: 1) QPF skills for more intense and sustained events such as hurricanes and tropical storms are higher than for shorter, less intense events; 2) while QPF and streamflow forecasting skills decrease as QPF durations increase, inundation forecasts under longer QPF durations (24 or 72 h) show higher skills; 3) extending the maximum QPF duration in operational hydrologic modeling from 24 h (under normal circumstances) to 72 h (for extreme events) may increase the skills of long lead time forecasts for large-scale events like Hurricane Harvey.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Scientific Visualization to Study Flux Transfer Events at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

In this paper we present results of modeling of reconnection at the dayside magnetopause with subsequent development of flux transfer event signatures. The tools used include new methods that have been added to the suite of visualization methods that are used at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC). Flux transfer events result from localized reconnection that connect magnetosheath magnetic field and plasma with magnetospheric fields and plasma and results in flux rope structures that span the dayside magnetopause. The onset of flux rope formation and the three-dimensional structure of flux ropes are studied as they have been modeled by high-resolution magnetohydrodynamic simulations of the dayside magnetosphere of the Earth. We show that flux transfer events are complex three-dimensional structures that require modern visualization and analysis techniques. Two suites of visualization methods are presented and we demonstrate the usefulness of those methods through the CCMC web site to the general science user.

Rastatter, Lutz↗

What Technical Choices Matter to Characterize Heat Wave and Cold Snap Events in Support of Bulk Power Grid Reliability Studies?

Extreme weather events, such as Heat Waves (HW) and Cold Snaps (CS), pose significant risks to the power grid. The United States (U.S.) Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Order No. 896 mandates regional coordination standards that account for extreme thermal events. However, the lack of a universal definition for extreme thermal events may lead to inconsistent compliance efforts among neighboring entities, undermining the reliability of the transmission system. This study directly addresses this challenge by systematically evaluating how varying technical choices in defining HW and CS fundamentally impact the characterization and ranking of extreme events for power grid reliability studies. We used 12 event definitions and multiple temperature spatial aggregation approaches to construct historical (1980–2024) regional extreme thermal event libraries across North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) subregions in the conterminous U.S. We examined the sensitivity of event characteristics (e.g., duration, frequency, intensity, and spatial coverage) to different definitions. While some definitions produced similar libraries and top event rankings, definitions based on moving-window-averaged temperatures yielded markedly different characteristics. Spatial aggregation methods had minimal impact on heat wave or cold snap intensity, frequency and duration but significantly influenced spatial coverage. The top events identified across different aggregation methods were consistent, but their ranking order varied. These findings offer critical insights for characterizing and selecting extreme thermal events and for supporting local and cross-regional coordination as required by reliability standards.

Wan, Heng [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (↗

Chimera Events for Performance Studies of the MicroBooNE Deep Learning-based Low Energy Excess Search

MicroBooNE is a short baseline neutrino oscillation experiment based at Fermilab that employs Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LArTPC) technology. One of its target measurements is to investigate the nature of the excess of low energy electron-like events observed by MiniBooNE. This measurement will require an excellent understanding of systematic uncertainties, obtained through testing the performance of reconstruction algorithms on samples with known properties. However, using exclusively Monte Carlo events for this task is limited by how well the discrepancies between simulation and data are understood. An alternative is to test against samples of “chimera” events, which are made up of separate single-particle components from data that are combined to create neutrino-like events. These chimera events can be used to help quantify systematic uncertainties. This note covers the performance and status of creating and using chimera events that match a target neutrino topology in MicroBooNE.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Many-gluon tree amplitudes on modern GPUs: A case study for novel event generators

The compute efficiency of Monte-Carlo event generators for the Large Hadron Collider is expected to become a major bottleneck for simulations in the high-luminosity phase. Aiming at the development of a full-fledged generator for modern GPUs, we study the performance of various recursive strategies to compute multi-gluon tree-level amplitudes. We investigate the scaling of the algorithms on both CPU and GPU hardware. Finally, we provide practical recommendations as well as baseline implementations for the development of future simulation programs. The GPU implementations can be found at: https://www.gitlab.com/ebothmann/blockgen-archive.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Geostationary Lightning Mapper Flash Characteristics of Electrified Snowfall Events

This study examines characteristics of lightning in snowfall events (i.e., thundersnow, 20 TSSN) from the perspective of the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) and the National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service (NESDIS) merged Snowfall Rate (mSFR) product. A thundersnow detection algorithm (TDA) was derived from the GLM and mSFR which resulted in a probability of detection (POD) of 66.7% when compared to the Meteorological Terminal Air Report (METAR) reports of TSSN. However, using the TDA an additional 2,175 lightning flashes within detected snowfall were identified that were not observed by the METAR reports, indicating that TSSN has been under reported in previous literature. TSSN flashes observed by GLM have mean flash areas, durations, and total optical energy outputs of 754 km2, 402 ms, and 1,342 fJ, which are between the 50th and 99th percentile values for all flashes within the GLM field of view. A comparison with data from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) indicated that the NLDN had at least one cloud or ground flash detection in 1,709 of the 2,214 flashes observed by GLM in snowfall. An average of 5.85 NLDN flashes were assigned to a single GLM flash when the NLDN flash data were constrained by the GLM flash duration and spatial footprint. Statistically significant (p<0.01) differences in flash area and flash energy were found between flashes that were observed by the NLDN and those that were not. Additionally, when GLM was combined with the NLDN, at least 11.1% of flashes involved a tall human-made object like an antenna or wind turbine.

lightning↗

Characterization of the DUNE photodetectors and study of the event burst phenomenon

The Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) is an upcoming neutrino physics experiment that will answer some of the most compelling questions in particle physics and cosmology. The DUNE far detectors employ silicon photomultipliers (SiPMs) to detect light produced by charged particles interacting in a large liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC). The SiPMs are photosensors consisting of an array of single-photon avalanche diodes (SPAD) operating in Geiger mode. Their high sensitivity and dynamic range, as well as the possibility to fill large surfaces with high-granularity sensors, makes them an ideal choice for DUNE. An international consortium of research groups is currently engaged in a systematic comparison of the performances of the SiPM models that have been custom developed for DUNE by two manufacturers. Such detailed studies, which include gain measurements and a structure study of the dark count rate at 77 K, are meant to determine the best choice of the photodetection system for DUNE, as well as characterize the response of the chosen detectors for the DUNE simulation. Moreover, an investigation of a newly observed phenomenon, in which quick bursts of tens of events at close range are collected in individual SiPMs, is being carried out, which potentially impacts the design of future models and their implementation in particle physics experiments.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Comet Halley remote plasma tail observations and in situ solar wind properties - Vega-1/2 IMF/plasma observations and ground-based optical observations from 1 December 1985 to 1 May 1986

General features of the solar wind plasma and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) are studied for the time period of December 1, 1985 - May 1, 1986. Characteristics studied include corotating events, shocks, and sector boundaries in the IMF. For the same period, Comet Halley was near its perihelion and many ground-based observations of the plasma tail were made. They show interesting events such as tail substorms and disconnection events where the whole distant plasma tail seems to be disrupted from the part that is still attached to the cometary head. Several mechanisms have been produced to explain the cause of these events. The correlation between the IMF sector boundaries measured by Vega and the observed disconnection events are studied, noting that such a correlation would support the dayside reconnection explanation. It is found that only in 50 percent of the considered events does a correlation between these two phenomena exist. For the other cases, a sector boundary of the IMF sweeping over the comet cannot explain the occurrence of disruptions of the main plasma tail.

Delva, Magda↗

A comparative study of diversification events: the early Paleozoic versus the Mesozoic

We compare two major long-term diversifications of marine animal families that began during periods of low diversity but produced strikingly different numbers of phyla, classes, and orders. The first is the early-Paleozoic diversification (late Vendian-Ordovician; 182 MY duration) and the other the Mesozoic phase of the post-Paleozoic diversification (183 MY duration). The earlier diversification was associated with a great burst of morphological invention producing many phyla, classes, and orders and displaying high per taxon rates of family origination. The later diversification lacked novel morphologies recognized as phyla and classes, produced fewer orders, and displayed lower per taxon rates of family appearances. The chief difference between the diversifications appears to be that the earlier one proceeded from relatively narrow portions of adaptive space, whereas the latter proceeded from species widely scattered among adaptive zones and representing a variety of body plans. This difference is believed to explain the major differences in the products of these great radiations. Our data support those models that hold that evolutionary opportunity is a major factor in the outcome of evolutionary processes.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗

Study of dijet events with large rapidity separation in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 2.76 TeV

The cross sections for inclusive and Mueller-Navelet dijet production are measured as a function of the rapidity separation between the jets in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 2.76 TeV for jets with transverse momentum p T > 35 GeV and rapidity |y| < 4.7. Various dijet production cross section ratios are also measured. A veto on additional jets with p T > 20 GeV is introduced to improve the sensitivity to the effects of the Balitsky-Fadin-Kuraev-Lipatov (BFKL) evolution. The measurement is compared with the predictions of various Monte Carlo models based on leading-order and next-to-leading-order calculations including the Dokshitzer-Gribov-Lipatov-Altarelli-Parisi leading-logarithm (LL) parton shower as well as the LL BFKL resummation.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

QCD tree amplitudes on modern GPUs: A case study for novel event generators

For more than a decade the current generation of CPU-based matrix element generators has provided hard scattering events with excellent flexibility and good efficiency.However, they are a bottleneck of current Monte Carlo event generator toolchains, and with the advent of the HL-LHC and more demanding precision requirements, faster matrix elements are needed, especially at intermediate to large jet multiplicities.We present first results of the new BlockGen family of matrix element algorithms, featuring GPU support and novel color treatments, and discuss the best choice to deliver the performance needed for the next generation of accelerated matrix element generators.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Bolide Infrasound Signal Morphology and Yield Estimates: A Case Study of Two Events Detected by a Dense Acoustic Sensor Network

Two bolides (2016 June 2 and 2019 April 4) were detected at multiple regional infrasound stations, with many of the locations receiving multiple detections. Analysis of the received signals was used to estimate the yield, location, and trajectory, as well as the type of shock that produced the received signal. The results from the infrasound analysis were compared with ground-truth information that was collected through other sensing modalities. This multimodal framework offers an expanded perspective on the processes governing bolide shock generation and propagation. The majority of signal features showed reasonable agreement between the infrasound-based interpretation and the other observational modalities, though the yield estimate from the 2019 bolide was significantly lower using the infrasound detections. There was also evidence suggesting that one of the detections was from a cylindrical shock that was initially propagating upward, which is unusual though not impossible.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗