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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Cascadia Subduction Zone Fault Heterogeneities From Newly Detected Small Magnitude Earthquakes

The Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) is known to host M9 megathrust ruptures; however, no such event has occurred in historical observation. The distribution and characteristics of small- to moderate-sized earthquakes can be used to determine the behavior of the megathrust fault but are notably absent offshore the CSZ due to the distance from onshore seismometers. We use automated subspace detection coupled with an onshore-offshore seismic deployment to find small-magnitude earthquakes in the offshore seismogenic zone and analyze their locations in the context of interseismic locking and seismogenic zone extent. Here we detected and located 5,282 earthquakes, 4,096 of which had been previously undetected. We find that the downdip extent of the seismogenic zone as defined by interplate seismicity agrees with the 20% locking contour of the Schmalzle et al. (2014, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GC005172) geodetic model and extends deeper than predicted by previous thermal models. We cannot determine the updip extent of the seismogenic zone; this may be due to a lack of templates for detection in the updip source area, stress shadows updip of asperity loading, and/or strong locking to the trench. We present a map of possible asperities determined by the small earthquakes in this study. Our asperity locations and extents show some, but not complete, agreement with the asperities modeled from the 1700 M9 rupture and geodetic locking models, and good agreement with the paleo-rupture extents determined from offshore turbidites and forearc basin-based asperity estimates. This highlights the need of continued offshore observations over time, and to elucidate fine-scale variation in locking.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multi-arrival infrasound from meteoroids: Fragmentation signatures versus propagation effects in a fine-scale layered atmosphere

Infrasonic signatures of meteoroid fragmentation are frequently ambiguous: do multiple arrivals signify a complex breakup or merely the distorting effects of a layered atmosphere? Resolving this ambiguity is critical for accurate energy estimates and source reconstruction. In this study, we address this challenge by analyzing a unique regional dataset of well-constrained meteoroid events observed by the Southern Ontario Meteor Network and the co-located Elginfield Infrasound Array. We employ pseudo-differential parabolic equation (PPE) simulations to quantify how fine-scale gravity-wave structures in the stratosphere and lower thermosphere modify acoustic waveforms at ranges <300 km. Our modeling reveals that while fine-scale layering can stretch signals and generate diffuse oscillatory tails, it does not produce discrete, high-amplitude pulse splitting at ranges below ∼140 km. By applying these results to the rare multi-arrival event 20060305, we demonstrate that its distinct double arrival at 100 km range is inconsistent with atmospheric multipathing and provides definitive evidence of separate fragmentation episodes. These findings establish new diagnostic criteria for separating source physics from propagation artifacts, improving the reliability of infrasound as a monitoring tool for natural bolides, space debris re-entries, and catastrophic launch failures.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2015

Spatial and Temporal Analysis of a Global Landslide Catalog

Landslide inventories are critical to support investigations ofwhere andwhen landslides have happened andmay occur in the future; however, there is surprisingly little information on the historical occurrence of landslides at the global scale. This paper presents a new publicly available global landslide catalog (GLC), which is based on media reports, online databases, and other sources. This database is currently available at http://ojo-streamer. herokuapp.com/. The 5741 points in the GLC provide a foundation for evaluating spatial and temporal trends in landslide activity from 2007 to 2013. Globally, landslideswere reportedmost frequently from July to September. Most events occurred in Asia, North America and Southeast Asia. In contrast, fewer than 5% of the fatalities were reported in North America, suggesting a significant amount of under-reporting in other regions as well as potential discrepancies between developing and developed regions. Reported landslide events were also compared to satellite-based precipitation estimates fromthe Tropical RainfallMeasuring Mission (TRMM) to evaluate the co-occurrence of extreme precipitation and landslide activity. Of the 3550 points considered in a subset of the GLC, approximately 60% of the reported landslides have daily precipitation exceeding the 95th percentile of precipitation calculated over a 14-year TRMMrecord for the same location. This study also investigated how the recurrence interval of extreme precipitation corresponded to some of the most catastrophic landslide events. In spite of several reporting and cataloging biases, spatial and temporal analysis of the GLC suggests that it is a valuable database for characterizing global patterns of landslide occurrence and evaluating relationships with extreme precipitation at regional and global scales.

Analysis↗
NASA NTRS2008

Determination of a Limited Scope Network's Lightning Detection Efficiency

This paper outlines a modeling technique to map lightning detection efficiency variations over a region surveyed by a sparse array of ground based detectors. A reliable flash peak current distribution (PCD) for the region serves as the technique's base. This distribution is recast as an event probability distribution function. The technique then uses the PCD together with information regarding: site signal detection thresholds, type of solution algorithm used, and range attenuation; to formulate the probability that a flash at a specified location will yield a solution. Applying this technique to the full region produces detection efficiency contour maps specific to the parameters employed. These contours facilitate a comparative analysis of each parameter's effect on the network's detection efficiency. In an alternate application, this modeling technique gives an estimate of the number, strength, and distribution of events going undetected. This approach leads to a variety of event density contour maps. This application is also illustrated. The technique's base PCD can be empirical or analytical. A process for formulating an empirical PCD specific to the region and network being studied is presented. A new method for producing an analytical representation of the empirical PCD is also introduced.

Rompala, John T.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Evidence for a ~1 Ga Hypervelocity Impact Event Found in Northwest Greenland

There are likely many undiscovered impact structures on Earth, but several challenges prevent their detection, including possible concealment beneath large ice sheets. In recent years, geophysical, geochemical, and microphysical evidence has mounted for a ca. 58 Ma impact structure under the Hiawatha Glacier, northwest Greenland. Here, we report evidence for a second, much older hypervelocity impact event in this region, recorded in an impact melt rock sample collected from a glaciofluvial deposit in Inglefield Land. Secondary ion mass spectrometry U-Pb analyses of shock metamorphosed zircon grains yielded a previously unrecorded, Proterozoic best estimate impact age of 1039 ± 16 Ma (mean square of weighted deviates = 2.9). Based on Archean−Proterozoic target rock U-Pb ages obtained from unshocked zircon grains and the location of the melt rock sample along the ice margin, we suggest this sample was derived from a hypervelocity impact structure farther inland, concealed by the Greenland Ice Sheet. This study demonstrates the ability to uncover new impact events in some of the most inaccessible areas on Earth and the possibility of sampling multiple impact structures from one location when examining ex situ material. Our results have implications for current and future Martian and lunar returned samples that demonstrably bear complex impact histories.

William R. Hyde↗
NASA NTRS1993

Multirate and event-driven Kalman filters for helicopter flight

A vision-based obstacle detection system that provides information about objects as a function of azimuth and elevation is discussed. The range map is computed using a sequence of images from a passive sensor, and an extended Kalman filter is used to estimate range to obstacles. The magnitude of the optical flow that provides measurements for each Kalman filter varies significantly over the image depending on the helicopter motion and object location. In a standard Kalman filter, the measurement update takes place at fixed intervals. It may be necessary to use a different measurement update rate in different parts of the image in order to maintain the same signal to noise ratio in the optical flow calculations. A range estimation scheme that accepts the measurement only under certain conditions is presented. The estimation results from the standard Kalman filter are compared with results from a multirate Kalman filter and an event-driven Kalman filter for a sequence of helicopter flight images.

Sridhar, Banavar↗
NASA NTRS2011

Multipoint Observations of Coronal Mass Ejection and Solar Energetic Particle Events on Mars and Earth During November 2001

Multipoint spacecraft observations provide unique opportunities to constrain the propagation and evolution of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) throughout the heliosphere. Using Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) data to study both ICME and solar energetic particle (SEP) events at Mars and OMNI and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) data to study ICMEs and SEPs at Earth, we present a detailed study of three CMEs and flares in late November 2001. In this period, Mars trailed Earth by 56deg solar longitude so that the two planets occupied interplanetary magnetic field lines separated by only approx.25deg. We model the interplanetary propagation of CME events using the ENLIL version 2.6 3-D MHD code coupled with the Wang-Sheeley-Arge version 1.6 potential source surface model, using Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) images to determine CME input parameters. We find that multipoint observations are essential to constrain the simulations of ICME propagation, as two very different ICMEs may look very similar in only one observational location. The direction and width of the CME as parameters essential to a correct estimation of arrival time and amplitude of the ICME signal. We find that these are problematic to extract from the analysis of SOHO/LASCO images commonly used for input to ICME propagation models. We further confirm that MGS magnetometer and electron reflectometer data can be used to study not only ICME events but also SEP events at Mars, with good results providing a consistent picture of the events when combined with near-Earth data.

Falkenberg, T. V.↗
DOE OSTI2023

The MIGDAL experiment: Measuring a rare atomic process to aid the search for dark matter

We present the Migdal In Galactic Dark mAtter expLoration (MIGDAL) experiment aiming at the unambiguous observation and study of the so-called Migdal effect induced by fast-neutron scattering. It is hoped that this elusive atomic process can be exploited to enhance the reach of direct dark matter search experiments to lower masses, but it is still lacking experimental confirmation. Our goal is to detect the predicted atomic electron emission which is thought to accompany nuclear scattering with low, but calculable, probability, by deploying an Optical Time Projection Chamber filled with a low-pressure gas based on CF 4 . Initially, pure CF 4 will be used, and then in mixtures containing other elements employed by leading dark matter search technologies — including noble species, plus Si and Ge. High resolution track images generated by a Gas Electron Multiplier stack, together with timing information from scintillation and ionisation readout, will be used for 3D reconstruction of the characteristic event topology expected for this process — an arrangement of two tracks sharing a common vertex, with one belonging to a Migdal electron and the other to a nuclear recoil. Different energy-loss rate distributions along both tracks will be used as a powerful discrimination tool against background events. In this article we present the design of the experiment, informed by extensive particle and track simulations and detailed estimations of signal and background rates. In pure CF 4 we expect to observe 8.9 (29.3) Migdal events per calendar day of exposure to an intense D–D (D–T) neutron generator beam at the NILE facility located at the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory (UK). With our nominal assumptions, 5σ median discovery significance can be achieved in under one day with either generator.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predicting seismic amplitudes with machine learning

The accurate estimation of seismic wave amplitude is vital to precisely determine the yield, magnitude, and event discrimination possible for a given network – a critical element in nuclear explosion monitoring. This task is complicated by several factors, including but not limited to radiation pattern, scattering effects, and crustal variations, which can lead to the attenuation or amplification of amplitude along a given raypath. In this report, we explore the novel application of machine learning to the task of seismic amplitude estimation by training a simple Artificial Neural Network (ANN) on an S-wave amplitude dataset from Lai et al. (2019). Attributes from this dataset used as input to the ANN included event-station distances, station locations (latitude, longitude), event locations (latitude, longitude), event depths, event magnitudes, radiation patterns, signal-to noise ratio (SNR) measurements (average-amplitude, peak-to-trough, maximum peak), and signal periods. We find that the trained ANN predicts S-wave amplitudes with a modest tendency toward underestimating the actual values, as indicated by a linear regression between predicted and actual data (slope: 0.892, intercept: -0.651). These results suggest that an ANN can perform this task, with potential for significant improvements through improved datasets, architectures, and parameter tuning.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
NASA NTRS2014

Comparison of Model Calculations of Biological Damage from Exposure to Heavy Ions with Measurements

The space environment consists of a varying field of radiation particles including high-energy ions, with spacecraft shielding material providing the major protection to astronauts from harmful exposure. Unlike low-LET gamma or X rays, the presence of shielding does not always reduce the radiation risks for energetic charged-particle exposure. Dose delivered by the charged particle increases sharply at the Bragg peak. However, the Bragg curve does not necessarily represent the biological damage along the particle path since biological effects are influenced by the track structures of both primary and secondary particles. Therefore, the ''biological Bragg curve'' is dependent on the energy and the type of the primary particle and may vary for different biological end points. Measurements of the induction of micronuclei (MN) have made across the Bragg curve in human fibroblasts exposed to energetic silicon and iron ions in vitro at two different energies, 300 MeV/nucleon and 1 GeV/nucleon. Although the data did not reveal an increased yield of MN at the location of the Bragg peak, the increased inhibition of cell progression, which is related to cell death, was found at the Bragg peak location. These results are compared to the calculations of biological damage using a stochastic Monte-Carlo track structure model, Galactic Cosmic Ray Event-based Risk Model (GERM) code (Cucinotta, et al., 2011). The GERM code estimates the basic physical properties along the passage of heavy ions in tissue and shielding materials, by which the experimental set-up can be interpreted. The code can also be used to describe the biophysical events of interest in radiobiology, cancer therapy, and space exploration. The calculation has shown that the severely damaged cells at the Bragg peak are more likely to go through reproductive death, the so called "overkill".

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.↗
DOE OSTI2025

CalderaCast User Manual Version 1.0

CalderaCast is a user-friendly web-based tool for electrical-load forecast, providing stakeholders with a fully customizable decision-support framework that estimates the likely power draw from a possible future electric-vehicle (EV) charging station at a given location on a given day along an alternative fuel corridor (AFC). These EV charging profiles are accurately modeled in CalderaCast using the Caldera software framework developed by Idaho National Laboratories (INL), reflecting the realistic charging levels observed in actual charge events. This tool was developed as part of the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI) program, which is quickly generating substantial interest from would-be charging station operators (CSO), large and small electric utilities, and state transportation planners, some of whom had not seriously considered EV charging previously. All these entities—with or without background in EV infrastructure—must estimate the electricity load that a proposed charging station will generate. This load forecast is critically important for a utility to properly assess the capacity of their distribution network to support the proposed station or properly size grid upgrades for potential load growth due to future EV adoption, vehicle technology improvements, or station growth. This document describes each aspect of the CalderaCast tool and provides guidance to users who are interested in utilizing the tool for their work.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

How Good Is Your Location? Comparing and Understanding the Uncertainties in Location for the 1993 Rock Valley Sequence

Accurate event locations are important for many endeavors in seismology, and understanding the factors that contribute to uncertainties in those locations is complex. In this article, we present a case study that takes an in-depth look at the accuracy and precision possible for locating nine shallow earthquakes in the Rock Valley fault zone in southern Nevada. These events are targeted by the Rock Valley Direct Comparison phase of the Source Physics Experiment, as candidates for the colocation of a chemical explosion with an earthquake hypocenter to directly compare earthquake and explosion sources. For this comparison, it is necessary to determine earthquake hypocenters as accurately as possible so that different source types have nearly identical locations. Our investigations include uncertainty analysis from different sets of phase arrivals, stations, velocity models, and location algorithms. For a common set of phase arrivals and stations, we find that epicentral locations from different combinations of velocity models and algorithms are within 600 m of one another in most cases. Event depths exhibit greater uncertainties, but focusing on the S-P times at the nearest station allows for estimates within approximately 500 m.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1987

Gamma-ray burst localization by HEAO 3

The relative response of the five segments of the HEAO 3 gamma-ray-spectroscope anticoincidence shield (a 6.62-cm-thick 33.1-cm-OD 27.4-cm-high CsI cylinder) is used to estimate the directions of gamma-ray bursts on February 13, 1980 and September 29, 1979. The operation of the instrument and the data-analysis procedures are described, and the results are presented graphically. The 1980 event is located in an error box centered on alpha = 104.5 deg and delta = -15 deg (error box A of Atteia et al., 1987). The position of the 1979 event (alpha = 75 deg and delta = 40 deg) is shown to be consistent with ISEE 3 and Pioneer Venus Orbiter arrival times.

Schwartz, R. A.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Multi-wave band SMM-VLA observations of an M2 flare and an associated coronal mass ejection

Results are presented of observations of an M2 flare and an associated coronal mass ejection CME by instruments on the SMM as well as by the VLA and other ground-based observatories on September 30, 1988. The multiwave band data show a gradual slowly changing event which lasted several hours. The microwave burst emission was found to originate in compact moderately circularly polarized sources located near the sites of bright H-alpha and soft X-ray emission. These data are combined with estimates of an electron temperature of 1.5 x 10 to the 7th K and an emission measure of about 2.0 x 10 to the 49th/cu cm obtained from Ca XIX and Fe XXV spectra to show that the microwave emission can be attributed to thermal gyrosynchrotron radiation in regions where the magnetic field strength is 425-650 G. The CME acceleration at low altitudes is measured on the basis of ground- and space-based coronagraphs.

Willson, Robert F.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Lunar Impact Flash Locations from NASA's Lunar Impact Monitoring Program

Meteoroids are small, natural bodies traveling through space, fragments from comets, asteroids, and impact debris from planets. Unlike the Earth, which has an atmosphere that slows, ablates, and disintegrates most meteoroids before they reach the ground, the Moon has little-to-no atmosphere to prevent meteoroids from impacting the lunar surface. Upon impact, the meteoroid's kinetic energy is partitioned into crater excavation, seismic wave production, and the generation of a debris plume. A flash of light associated with the plume is detectable by instruments on Earth. Following the initial observation of a probable Taurid impact flash on the Moon in November 2005,1 the NASA Meteoroid Environment Office (MEO) began a routine monitoring program to observe the Moon for meteoroid impact flashes in early 2006, resulting in the observation of over 330 impacts to date. The main objective of the MEO is to characterize the meteoroid environment for application to spacecraft engineering and operations. The Lunar Impact Monitoring Program provides information about the meteoroid flux in near-Earth space in a size range-tens of grams to a few kilograms-difficult to measure with statistical significance by other means. A bright impact flash detected by the program in March 2013 brought into focus the importance of determining the impact flash location. Prior to this time, the location was estimated to the nearest half-degree by visually comparing the impact imagery to maps of the Moon. Better accuracy was not needed because meteoroid flux calculations did not require high-accuracy impact locations. But such a bright event was thought to have produced a fresh crater detectable from lunar orbit by the NASA spacecraft Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO). The idea of linking the observation of an impact flash with its crater was an appealing one, as it would validate NASA photometric calculations and crater scaling laws developed from hypervelocity gun testing. This idea was dependent upon LRO finding a fresh impact crater associated with one of the impact flashes recorded by Earth-based instruments, either the bright event of March 2013 or any other in the database of impact observations. To find the crater, LRO needed an accurate area to search. This Technical Memorandum (TM) describes the geolocation technique developed to accurately determine the impact flash location, and by association, the location of the crater, thought to lie directly beneath the brightest portion of the flash. The workflow and software tools used to geolocate the impact flashes are described in detail, along with sources of error and uncertainty and a case study applying the workflow to the bright impact flash in March 2013. Following the successful geolocation of the March 2013 flash, the technique was applied to all impact flashes detected by the MEO between November 7, 2005, and January 3, 2014.

Moser, D. E.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Understanding the Deflection of the “Cartwheel CME”: Data Analysis and Modeling

We study the low corona evolution of the “Cartwheel” coronal mass ejection (CME; 2008 April 9) by- reconstructing its three-dimensional path and modeling it with magnetohydrodynamic simulations. This event exhibited a double deflection that has been reported and analyzed in previous works but whose underlying cause remained unclear. The Cartwheel CME traveled toward a coronal hole (CH) and against the magnetic gradients. Using a high-cadence, full-trajectory reconstruction, we accurately determine the location of the magnetic flux rope (MFR) and, consequently, the magnetic environment in which it is immersed. We find a pseudostreamer (PS) structure whose null point may be responsible for the complex evolution of the MFR at the initial phase. From the preeruptive magnetic field reconstruction, we estimate the dynamic forces acting on the MFR and provide a new physical insight into the motion exhibited by the 2008 April 9 event. By setting up a similar magnetic configuration in a 2.5D numerical simulation we are able to reproduce the observed behavior, confirming the importance of the PS null point. We find that the magnetic forces directed toward the null point cause the first deflection, directing the MFR toward the CH. Later, the magnetic pressure gradient of the CH produces the reversal motion of the MFR.

Solar prominences↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improved Angular Uncertainty Estimation for Compton Imagers

Compton imaging is a method for localizing a photon source using Compton scatter events as measured by a position sensitive photon detector. Using the measured interaction positions and energy depositions for a Compton event, a cone can be back projected which represents all possible origin locations for that source photon. Given enough Compton events, the source can be localized via identifying the regions where many of these cones intersect. An illustration of this effect is given in the figure below. The region intersected by the three cones in this case is a likely origin point for the photon source.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Continuous surface-to-distributed acoustic sensor snapshots explain reactivation of individual natural fractures during an unconventional reservoir stimulation

ABSTRACT Fiber-optic sensing technologies allow petroleum engineering teams to detect hydraulic fracture interaction with boreholes during unconventional reservoir stimulation. In combination with high-repeatability seismic sources, the same distributed acoustic sensors (DASs) enable vertical seismic profiling (VSP) of the fracture evolution away from the boreholes. We discovered clear signatures of seismic scattering on activated fractures during nine days of continuous seismic monitoring of the fracturing stages at the Austin Chalk/Eagle Ford Field Laboratory. The present study applies a novel approach for quantitative analysis of the scattering events in terms of the evolution of the geometry and elastic stiffness of individual fractures. Our characterization strategy sequentially refines the fracture models: from a stack of 1D soft layers to 3D rectangular inclusions. First, we estimate the number of fracture locations and reflectivity using a modified sparse-spike deconvolution of the stacked VSP traces. The fracture set consists of five fractures spaced by 15–30 m with a reflectivity of approximately 1%. Then, we develop a scattering integral method to refine these estimates along with an inversion of the fracture top and bottom for each monitoring vintage. We find that, initially, some of the fractures are located above the monitoring fiber with the height of approximately 100 m. Then we integrate the seismic interpretation with the low-frequency DAS and pressure and microseismic monitoring to reconstruct the activation process of the fractures. Most likely, some of the natural fractures slowly grew downward to the monitoring fiber as a result of fluid injections in the stimulated well. This led to bright strain anomalies but did not trigger seismicity. The top of the fractures remained almost constant and were limited by a lithologic boundary/stress barrier. To our knowledge, this is the first time VSP data enabled tracking of the fracture evolution with such high spatial and temporal resolution, which was previously only available for crosswell surveys and at a much smaller scale.

Glubokovskikh, Stanislav↗