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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS2022

Uncertainty Models for the Hybrid Parametric Variation Method of Uncertainty Quantification; Analysis

There is some level of uncertainty in every finite element model (FEM), which flows to a level of uncertainty in predicted results. The purpose of uncertainty quantification (UQ) is to provide statistical bounds on prediction accuracy based on model uncertainty. This is distinct from model updating, which attempts to modify models to improve their accuracy. UQ does not improve the accuracy of models, but accepts that the models are inherently inaccurate and attempts to quantify the impact of that inaccuracy on predicted results. Previously, an alternate method for UQ, called the Hybrid Parametric Variation (HPV) method, was applied to Space Launch System (SLS) Hurty/Craig-Bampton (HCB) components to predict system-level statistics for launch vehicle attitude control transfer functions and core stage section loads due to buffet. The HPV method combines a parametric variation of the HCB fixed-interface (FI) modal frequencies with a nonparametric variation (NPV) method that randomly varies the HCB mass and stiffness matrices as Wishart random matrix distributions using random matrix theory (RMT). Alternatively, the most common method for modeling uncertainty in the structural dynamics community is a parametric approach, which varies physical parameters in the model. However, there are several disadvantages associated with the parametric method. Determining a reduced set of parameters that have a significant impact on the system response can be time consuming, and the selected parameter probability distributions are rarely reliably known. Therefore, in practice, the parameters are surrogates for the actual errors, and the link to parameter uncertainty is unknown. Another major drawback is that the uncertainty that can be represented is limited to the form of the nominal FEM. It is the experience of the authors that based on numerous aerospace programs, almost all FEM errors are in form rather than parameter values. This hypothesis is supported by the observation of the authors that it is almost never possible to ‘tune’ a FEM to match modal test results by only modifying model parameters. Model-form uncertainty cannot be directly represented by FEM input parameters nor included in a parametric approach. However, model-form uncertainty can be modeled using RMT, where a probability distribution is developed for the matrix ensemble of interest. The major advantage of the NPV method is that it covers errors in model form. The HPV method anchors uncertainty at the HCB component level to component modal test results by matching the HCB and test modes based on mode descriptions or other methods, and then applying differing levels of frequency variation. The specific variations depend on the confidence to which a component FEM has been validated through modal testing. The NPV method is layered on the frequency variation to match modal test self-orthogonality and cross-orthogonality (XO) results. Once the component uncertainty models are identified, they are assembled, and the uncertainty is propagated to the system level using a Monte Carlo (MC) analysis approach that generates statistics for system-level predictions This provides a UQ method that can be traced to test data, which can be updated as additional data and improved correlated models become available. The purpose of this paper is to collect and present all of the theory for HPV that has been previously published in reports and papers and to present examples of its application. Specifically, component uncertainty models based on the dispersion of corresponding mass and stiffness matrices using proposed test/analysis correlation metrics are investigated. The first example is purely academic so that the true answers are known, and the validity of the HPV method and the corresponding uncertainty models can be determined. The purpose of this paper is to collect and present all of the theory for HPV that has been previously published in reports and papers and to present examples of its application. Specifically, component uncertainty models based on the dispersion of corresponding mass and stiffness matrices using proposed test/analysis correlation metrics are investigated. The first example is purely academic so that the true answers are known, and the validity of the HPV method and the corresponding uncertainty models can be determined. The second example is an application to a component that is design specific to the SLS. Based on this work and other assessments, the HPV method provides another tool to the toolset used for complex system UQ analysis. From experience gathered to date using the HPV method, additional design specific applications must be investigated to provide further confidence in the validity of the HPV method of UQ analysis.

Uncertainty quantification↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probing Sensitivity of Discharge Characteristics to Model Selection using Uncertainty Quantification in an aprotic Li-Oxygen Battery

Currently, there are several models in the literature, such as kinetic models, microstructural models, and mass transport models that describe a Li-air battery's discharge behavior. Many of these models are calibrated and tested at low current densities and cannot be easily transferred to high current densities. Even at low current densities, there is no quantitative method for a researcher to choose a reaction kinetic model such as classical Butler-Volmer and its derivatives, and modified Marcus-Hush-Chidsey, a resistance model for lithium peroxide such as electron transport via tunneling or linear resistivity, a surface coverage model (lithium peroxide growth) such as partial coverage or full coverage, and mass transport model (discussed in Ref. [1]). Also, it is time-consuming to test different models at high current density (1C) due to a lack of well-tested models and well-calibrated model parameters. For this presentation, we will develop an analytical model, which acts as a surrogate model for a sophisticated finite element model to predict discharge time and discharge voltage. Next, we use an uncertainty quantifying technique called reduced-order stochastic optimization [2, 3] to determine the uncertainty in model parameters for rate kinetics, lithium peroxide resistivity, and parasitic resistance. Finally, a finite element simulation is performed to determine the error introduced by the surrogate model and its influence on the uncertainty in the model parameters.

M Mehta↗

NASA NTRS2021

Improved representation of the global dust cycle using observational constraints on dust properties and abundance

Even though desert dust is the most abundant aerosol by mass in Earth's atmosphere, atmospheric models struggle to accurately represent its spatial and temporal distribution. These model errors are partially caused by fundamental difficulties in simulating dust emission in coarse-resolution models and in accurately representing dust microphysical properties. Here we mitigate these problems by developing a new methodology that yields an improved representation of the global dust cycle. We present an analytical framework that uses inverse modeling to integrate an ensemble of global model simulations with observational constraints on the dust size distribution, extinction efficiency, and regional dust aerosol optical depth. We then compare the inverse model results against independent measurements of dust surface concentration and deposition flux and find that errors are reduced by approximately a factor of 2 relative to current model simulations of the Northern Hemisphere dust cycle. The inverse model results show smaller improvements in the less dusty Southern Hemisphere, most likely because both the model simulations and the observational constraints used in the inverse model are less accurate. On a global basis, we find that the emission flux of dust with a geometric diameter up to 20 µm (PM20) is approximately 5000 Tg yr−1, which is greater than most models account for. This larger PM20 dust flux is needed to match observational constraints showing a large atmospheric loading of coarse dust. We obtain gridded datasets of dust emission, vertically integrated loading, dust aerosol optical depth, (surface) concentration, and wet and dry deposition fluxes that are resolved by season and particle size. As our results indicate that this dataset is more accurate than current model simulations and the MERRA-2 dust reanalysis product, it can be used to improve quantifications of dust impacts on the Earth system.

Dust cycle↗

NASA NTRS2007

Advanced NASA Earth Science Mission Concept for Vegetation 3D Structure, Biomass and Disturbance

Carbon in forest canopies represents about 85% of the total carbon in the Earth's aboveground biomass (Olson et al., 1983). A major source of uncertainty in global carbon budgets derives from large errors in the current estimates of these carbon stocks (IPCC, 2001). The magnitudes and distributions of terrestrial carbon storage along with changes in sources and sinks for atmospheric C02 due to land use change remain the most significant uncertainties in Earth's carbon budget. These uncertainties severely limit accurate terrestrial carbon accounting; our ability to evaluate terrestrial carbon management schemes; and the veracity of atmospheric C02 projections in response to further fossil fuel combustion and other human activities. Measurements of vegetation three-dimensional (3D) structural characteristics over the Earth's land surface are needed to estimate biomass and carbon stocks and to quantify biomass recovery following disturbance. These measurements include vegetation height, the vertical profile of canopy elements (i.e., leaves, stems, branches), andlor the volume scattering of canopy elements. They are critical for reducing uncertainties in the global carbon budget. Disturbance by natural phenomena, such as fire or wind, as well as by human activities, such as forest harvest, and subsequent recovery, complicate the quantification of carbon storage and release. The resulting spatial and temporal heterogeneity of terrestrial biomass and carbon in vegetation make it very difficult to estimate terrestrial carbon stocks and quantify their dynamics. Vegetation height profiles and disturbance recovery patterns are also required to assess ecosystem health and characterize habitat. The three-dimensional structure of vegetation provides habitats for many species and is a control on biodiversity. Canopy height and structure influence habitat use and specialization, two fundamental processes that modify species richness and abundance across ecosystems. Accurate and consistent 3D measurements of forest structure at the landscape scale are needed for assessing impacts to animal habitats and biodiversity following disturbance.

Ranson, K. Jon↗

NASA NTRS2021

Improved Representation of the Global Dust Cycle Using Observational Constraints on Dust Properties and Abundance

Even though desert dust is the most abundant aerosol by mass in Earth’s atmosphere, atmospheric models 25 struggle to accurately represent its spatial and temporal distribution. These model errors are partially caused byfundamental difficulties in simulating dust emission in coarse-resolution models and in accurately representing dust microphysical properties. Here we mitigate these problems by developing a new methodology that yields an improved representation of the global dust cycle. We present an analytical framework that uses inverse modeling to integrate an ensemble of global model simulations with observational constraints on the dust size distribution, 30 extinction efficiency, and regional dust aerosol optical depth. We then compare the inverse model results against independent measurements of dust surface concentration and deposition flux and find that errors are reduced by approximately a factor of two relative to current model simulations of the Northern Hemisphere dust cycle. The inverse model results show smaller improvements in the less dusty Southern Hemisphere, most likely because both the model simulations and the observational constraints used in the inverse model are less accurate. On a global 35 basis, we find that the emission flux of dust with geometric diameter up to 20 μm (PM20) is approximately 5,000 Tg/year, which is greater than most models account for. This larger PM20 dust flux is needed to match observational constraints showing a large atmospheric loading of coarse dust. We obtain gridded data sets of dust emission, vertically integrated loading, dust aerosol optical depth, (surface) concentration, and wet and dry deposition fluxes that are resolved by season and particle size. As our results indicate that this data set is more accurate than current 40 model simulations and the MERRA-2 dust reanalysis product, it can be used to improve quantifications of dust impacts on the Earth system.

aerosols, dust↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty Estimates for Sonic-Boom Pressure Signatures and Loudness Carpets

A non-intrusive uncertainty quantification method is applied to computational analysis of supersonic, low-boom aircraft. The mean and standard deviation statistics of the pressure waveforms and loudness metrics are evaluated through use of numerical quadrature. The probability density function (p.d.f.) of these outputs is evaluated via kernel density estimation. The simulations use an inviscid, embedded-boundary Cartesian-mesh flow solver in the nearfield combined with an augmented Burgers’ equation solver for propagation in the farfield. The results show that the p.d.f. of the waveform is bimodal at shocks, which makes the mean and standard deviation statistics inappropriate. Despite this limitation, we show that the moment statistics can provide effective assessment of discrepancies when comparing with experimental data. This is demonstrated by presenting uncertainty analysis of a wind-tunnel test and showing that we significantly improve the predictions when we include the test uncertainties in the simulation. Normal distributions are obtained for the ground signature and loudness metrics, which is primarily due to the careful shaping of the low-boom waveform. Separation of variables and error control are used to reduce computational cost. We demonstrate that this is an efficient approach in the sense of balancing numerical errors in the statistics quadrature with discretization errors in the solvers.

ARMD↗

NASA NTRS2016

Automating Microbial Directed Evolution For Bioengineering Applications

From a micro-biology perspective, directed evolution is a technique that uses controlled environmental pressures to select for a desired phenotype. Directed evolution has the distinct advantage over rational design of not needing extensive knowledge of the genome or pathways associated with a microorganism to induce phenotypes. However, there are currently limitations to the applicability of this technique including being time-consuming, error-prone, and dependent on existing assays that may lack selectivity for the given phenotype. The AADEC (Autonomous Adaptive Directed Evolution Chamber) system is a proof-of-concept instrument to automate and improve the technique such that directed evolution can be used more effectively as a general bioengineering tool. A series of tests using the automated system and comparable by-hand survival assay measurements have been carried out using UV-C radiation and Escherichia coli cultures in order to demonstrate the advantages of the AADEC versus traditional implementations of directed evolution such as random mutagenesis. AADEC uses UV-C exposure as both a source of environmental stress and mutagenesis, so in order to evaluate the UV-C tolerance obtained from the cultures, a manual UV-C exposure survival assay was developed alongside the device to compare the survival fractions at a fixed dosage. This survival assay involves exposing E. coli to UV-C radiation using a custom-designed exposure hood to control the flux and dose. Surviving cells are counted then transferred to the next iteration and so on for several iterations to calculate the survival fractions for each exposure iteration.This survival assay primarily serves as a baseline for the AADEC device, allowing quantification of the differences between the AADEC system over the manual approach. The primary data of comparison is survival fractions; this is obtained by optical density and plate counts in the manual assay and by optical density growth curve fits pre- and post-exposure in the automated case. This data can then be compiled to calculate trends over the iterations to characterize increasing UV-C resistance of the E.coli strains. The observed trends are statistically indistinguishable through several iterations from both sources.

Bioengineering↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Copula-based Method to Generate Consistent Surface Pressures Under Uncertainty

This paper establishes a method to create surface pressure databases that allow for uncertainty quantification. Aerodynamic databases are critical products for launch vehicles and other aeronautical systems, and surface pressure databases are one such database that constains large quantities of data. The focus of this work is the relationship between the integrated force and moment data base and the surface pressure database. In particular, the work attempts to provide a method that maintains consistency between these two databases when accounting for uncertainty. The integrated force and moment database and surface pressure databases are constructed from CFD data which is high-density but low-trust. However, the force and moment database will often also include data from high-trust but low-density sources such as from wind tunnel experiments. This means that the quantified uncertainty of the force and moment database is higher quality as it includes this high fidelity wind tunnel data. This motivates the idea to use the force and moment database uncertainty when constructing the surface pressure database uncertainty. The method utilizes the statistical idea of a copula in order to generate surface pressures that match with uncertain integrated force and moment distributions as well as being consistent with known CFD data. This statistical consistency is quantified by using the Maximum Mean Discrepancy two-sample test. The predictive error of the method is also approximated using leave-one-out error estimation and the good overall performance of the method is presented using probability boxes in a simulated uncertainty scenario.

SLS↗

NASA NTRS1998

Enhanced Sea Ice Concentration and Ice Temperature Algorithms for AMSR

Accurate quantification of sea ice concentration and ice temperature from satellite passive microwave data is important because they provide the only long term, spatially detailed and consistent data set needed to study the climatology of the polar regions. Sea ice concentration data are used to derive large-scale daily ice extents that are utilized in trend analysis of the global sea ice cover. They are also used to quantify the amount of open water and thin ice in polynya and divergence regions which together with ice temperatures are in turn needed to estimate vertical heat and salinity fluxes in these regions. Sea ice concentrations have been derived from the NASA Team and Bootstrap algorithms while a separate technique for deriving ice temperature has been reported. An integrated technique that will utilizes most of the channels of AMSR (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer) has been developed. The technique uses data from the 6 GHz and 37 GHz channels at vertical polarization obtain an initial estimate of sea ice concentration and ice temperature. The derived ice temperature is then utilized to estimate the emissivities for the corresponding observations at all the other channels. A procedure for calculating the ice concentration similar to the Bootstrap technique is then used but with variables being emissivities instead of brightness temperatures to minimizes errors associated with spatial changes in ice temperatures within the ice pack. Comparative studies of ice concentration results with those from other algorithms, including the original Bootstrap algorithm and those from high resolution satellite visible and infrared data will be presented. Also, results from a simulation study that demonstrates the effectiveness of the technique in correcting for spatial variations in ice temperatures will be shown. The ice temperature results are likewise compared with satellite infrared and buoy data with the latter adjusted to account for the effects of the snow cover.

Comiso, Josefino C.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Attribution of Flux Partitioning Variations Between Land Surface Models over the Continental U.S.

Accurate quantification of the terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) components of plant transpiration (T), soil evaporation (E) and evaporation of the intercepted water (I) is necessary for improving our understanding of the links between the carbon and water cycles. Recent studies have noted that, among the modeled estimates, large disagreements exist in the relative contributions of T, E and I to the total ET. As these models are often used in data assimilation environments for incorporating and extending ET relevant remote sensing measurements, understanding the sources of inter-model differences in ET components is also necessary for improving the utilization of such remote sensing measurements. This study quantifies the contributions of two key factors explaining inter-model disagreements to the uncertainty in total ET: (1) contribution of the local partitioning and (2) regional distribution of ET. The analysis is conducted by using outputs from a suite of land surface models in the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) configuration. For most of these models, transpiration is the dominant component of the ET partition. The results indicate that the uncertainty in local partitioning dominates the inter-model spread in modeled soil evaporation E. The inter-model differences in T are dominated by the uncertainty in the distribution of ET over the Eastern U.S. and the local partitioning uncertainty in the Western U.S. The results also indicate that uncertainty in the T estimates is the primary driver of total ET errors. Over the majority of the U.S., the contribution of the two factors of uncertainty to the overall uncertainty is non-trivial.

uncertainty↗

NASA NTRS2018

Attribution of Flux Partitioning Variations Between Land Surface Models Over the Continental U.S.

evapotranspiration partitioning; transpiration; so↗

NASA NTRS2012

Height and Biomass of Mangroves in Africa from ICEsat/GLAS and SRTM

The accurate quantification of forest 3-D structure is of great importance for studies of the global carbon cycle and biodiversity. These studies are especially relevant in Africa, where deforestation rates are high and the lack of background data is great. Mangrove forests are ecologically significant and it is important to measure mangrove canopy heights and biomass. The objectives of this study are to estimate: 1. The total area, 2. Canopy height distributions and 3. Aboveground biomass of mangrove forests in Africa. To derive mangrove 3-D structure and biomass maps, we used a combination of mangrove maps derived from Landsat ETM+, LiDAR canopy height estimates from ICEsat/GLAS (Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite/Geoscience Laser Altimeter System) and elevation data from SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission) for the African continent. More specifically, we extracted mangrove forest areas on the SRTM DEM using Landsat based landcover maps. The LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) measurements from the large footprint GLAS sensor were used to derive local estimates of canopy height and calibrate the Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data from SRTM. We then applied allometric equations relating canopy height to biomass in order to estimate above ground biomass (AGB) from the canopy height product. The total mangrove area of Africa was estimated to be 25 960 square kilometers with 83% accuracy. The largest mangrove areas and greatest total biomass was 29 found in Nigeria covering 8 573 km2 with 132 x10(exp 6) Mg AGB. Canopy height across Africa was estimated with an overall root mean square error of 3.55 m. This error also includes the impact of using sensors with different resolutions and geolocation error which make comparison between measurements sensitive to canopy heterogeneities. This study provides the first systematic estimates of mangrove area, height and biomass in Africa. Our results showed that the combination of ICEsat/GLAS and SRTM data is well suited for vegetation 3-D mapping on a continental scale.

Fatoyinbo, Temilola E.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Development of High-Resolution Soil Hydraulic Parameters with Use of Earth Observations for Enhancing Root Zone Soil Moisture Product

Regional quantification of energy and water balance fluxes depends inevitably on the estimation of surface and rootzone soil moisture. The simulation of soil moisture depends on the soil retention characteristics, which are difficult to estimate at a regional scale. Thus, the present study proposes a new method to estimate high-resolution Soil Hydraulic Parameters (SHPs) which in turn help to provide high-resolution (spatial and temporal) rootzone soil moisture (RZSM) products. The study is divided into three phases—(I) involves the estimation of finer surface soil moisture (1 km) from the coarse resolution satellite soil moisture. The algorithm utilizes MODIS 1 km Land Surface Temperature (LST) and 1 km Normalized difference vegetation Index (NDVI) for downscaling 25 km C-band derived soil moisture from AMSR-2 to 1 km surface soil moisture product. At one of the test sites, soil moisture is continuously monitored at 5, 20, and 50 cm depth, while at 44 test sites data were collected randomly for validation. The temporal and spatial correlation for the downscaled product was 70% and 83%, respectively. (II) In the second phase, downscaled soil moisture product is utilized to inversely estimate the SHPs for the van Genuchten model (1980) at 1 km resolution. The numerical experiments were conducted to understand the impact of homogeneous SHPs as compared to the three-layered parameterization of the soil profile. It was seen that the SHPs estimated using the downscaled soil moisture (I-d experiment) performed with similar efficiency as compared to SHPs estimated from the in-situ soil moisture data (I-b experiment) in simulating the soil moisture. The normalized root mean square error (nRMSE) for the two treatments was 0.37 and 0.34, respectively. It was also noted that nRMSE for the treatment with the utilization of default SHPs (I-a) and AMSR-2 soil moisture (I-c) were found to be 0.50 and 0.43, respectively. (III) Finally, the derived SHPs were used to simulate both surface soil moisture and RZSM. The final product, RZSM which is the daily 1 km product also showed a nearly 80% correlation at the test site. The estimated SHPs are seen to improve the mean NSE from 0.10 (I-a experiment) to 0.50 (I-d experiment) for the surface soil moisture simulation. The mean nRMSE for the same was found to improve from 0.50 to 0.31.

soil moisture downscaling↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mars Sample Return, Sample Retrieval Lander, Reaction Control System Jet Interaction Supersonic Wind Tunnel Test Overview with CFD Predictions

NASA's Mars Sample Return campaign will be launching several missions over the next decade that will work together to return rock samples from Mars back to Earth. The Sample Retrieval Lander (SRL) will deliver the Mars Ascent Vehicle and fetch rover to the surface of Mars in 2006. Rock samples collected by the Mars 2020 Perseverance rover, landing in early 2021, will be loaded on the the ascent vehicle to be launched into Mars orbit for retrieval by yet another spacecraft. The Sample Retrieval Lander will be a blunt entry capsule similar to past Mars entry vehicles like Mars Science Laboratory and Viking. The vehicle will fly a guided entry, using a small lift vector produced by a non-zero trim angle of attack to eliminate downrange and crossrange position errors at the point of parachute deploy. This energy and heading management is achieved with a reaction control system (RCS) that directs the bank angle of the vehicle and also minimizes unwanted capsule dynamics. The reaction control system and control design is based on the Mars Science Laboratory and Mars 2020 RCS systems. However, due to packaging constraints, the backshell of this new entry vehicle has a different geometry than those earlier designs. To certify the RCS system for flight the project must characterize the jet plume interactions with the capsule backshell that could impair or significantly augment the RCS control authority. This characterization will be done through a combination of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis and wind tunnel test. Two candidate arrangements of the RCS jets have been identified for the SRL vehicle and are currently under evaluation before final selection. The aero/RCS plume interactions of these candidate configurations have been measured in a supersonic wind tunnel test in NASA Langley's Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel. The test was conducted in the fall of 2020 and data is currently being reduced. An overview of the candidate RCS configurations are presented here with an overview of the wind tunnel model design, jet scaling and scaled nozzle design, and the test matrix. Preliminary CFD runs are presented with an assessment of the predicted plumes and their interaction with the wake flow of the vehicle. The predicted effects of the model sting is provided as well. This high fidelity wind tunnel test is being conducted much earlier in the SRL project than would normally be done. The test was funded as part of a CFD evaluation task funded by NASA's Aerosciences Evaluation and Test Capabilities Project. The objective of the evaluation task was to compare the ability of CFD to predict complex flows with data that can be measured in the Langley Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel. RCS Jet interactions were selected as a type of complex flow that is important to NASA missions. In addition to providing useful data to the SRL project, there was added emphasis on quantifying the accuracy of the CFD predictions and wind tunnel test data. An overview of the uncertainty quantification methodologies for computational and experimental portions of this test is presented.

blunt body↗

NASA NTRS2015

Construction of Polarimetric Radar-Based Reference Rain Maps for the Iowa Flood Studies Campaign

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission Iowa Flood Studies (IFloodS) campaign was conducted in central and northeastern Iowa during the months of April-June, 2013. Specific science objectives for IFloodS included quantification of uncertainties in satellite and ground-based estimates of precipitation, 4-D characterization of precipitation physical processes and associated parameters (e.g., size distributions, water contents, types, structure etc.), assessment of the impact of precipitation estimation uncertainty and physical processes on hydrologic predictive skill, and refinement of field observations and data analysis approaches as they pertain to future GPM integrated hydrologic validation and related field studies. In addition to field campaign archival of raw and processed satellite data (including precipitation products), key ground-based platforms such as the NASA NPOL S-band and D3R Ka/Ku-band dual-polarimetric radars, University of Iowa X-band dual-polarimetric radars, a large network of paired rain gauge platforms, and a large network of 2D Video and Parsivel disdrometers were deployed. In something of a canonical approach, the radar (NPOL in particular), gauge and disdrometer observational assets were deployed to create a consistent high-quality distributed (time and space sampling) radar-based ground "reference" rainfall dataset, with known uncertainties, that could be used for assessing the satellite-based precipitation products at a range of space/time scales. Subsequently, the impact of uncertainties in the satellite products could be evaluated relative to the ground-benchmark in coupled weather, land-surface and distributed hydrologic modeling frameworks as related to flood prediction. Relative to establishing the ground-based "benchmark", numerous avenues were pursued in the making and verification of IFloodS "reference" dual-polarimetric radar-based rain maps, and this study documents the process and results as they pertain specifically to efforts using the NPOL radar dataset. The initial portions of the "process" involved dual-polarimetric quality control procedures which employed standard phase and correlation-based approaches to removal of clutter and non-meteorological echo. Calculation of a scale-adaptive KDP was accomplished using the method of Wang and Chandrasekar (2009; J. Atmos. Oceanic Tech.). A dual-polarimetric blockage algorithm based on Lang et al. (2009; J. Atmos. Oceanic Tech.) was then implemented to correct radar reflectivity and differential reflectivity at low elevation angles. Next, hydrometeor identification algorithms were run to identify liquid and ice hydrometeors. After the quality control and data preparation steps were completed several different dual-polarimetric rain estimation algorithms were employed to estimate rainfall rates using rainfall scans collected approximately every two to three minutes throughout the campaign. These algorithms included a polarimetrically-tuned Z-R algorithm that adjusts for drop oscillations (via Bringi et al., 2004, J. Atmos. Oceanic Tech.), and several different hybrid polarimetric variable approaches, including one that made use of parameters tuned to IFloodS 2D Video Disdrometer measurements. Finally, a hybrid scan algorithm was designed to merge the rain rate estimates from multiple low level elevation angle scans (where blockages could not be appropriately corrected) in order to create individual low-level rain maps. Individual rain maps at each time step were subsequently accumulated over multiple time scales for comparison to gauge network data. The comparison results and overall error character depended strongly on rain event type, polarimetric estimator applied, and range from the radar. We will present the outcome of these comparisons and their impact on constructing composited "reference" rainfall maps at select time and space scales.

Radar↗