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DOE OSTI2025

Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment and game theory for cyber security risk analysis in nuclear power plants

Nuclear Power Plants and energy systems have become more prone to cyber-attacks with their digitalization and the increased use of smart equipment. Hence, it is important to quantify the risk associated with cyber-attacks in such systems. Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment which involves studying the evolution of a system due to random events and operator and attacker actions during a cyber-attack by employing a physics-based model of the system is a suitable framework to quantify cybersecurity risk in nuclear power plants. In addition to the plant dynamics, it is also important to model the strategies of the attackers and plant operators for an effective cybersecurity risk assessment. Game theory provides a set of necessary tools to model such strategic interactions. In this research, a framework that integrates dynamic probabilistic risk assessment with game theory for cybersecurity risk analysis in nuclear power plants is presented. The mathematical formulation is derived based on the theory of continuous event trees. We propose a game theory based action model, that utilizes physics-based rewards to define the strategies of attackers and operators at every decision epoch. As a case study, the risk associated with cyber-attacks on the digital components in the secondary side of a pressurized water reactor is studied using a reduced order model. A set of attacker actions and a set of operator actions are defined for the system. The operator and attacker interactions were modelled using simultaneous game, their action policies were computed using the concept of mixed strategy Nash equilibrium and the evolution of the system was studied.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Deep desert aquifers as an archive for Mid- to Late Pleistocene hydroclimate: An example from the southeastern Mediterranean

Many efforts have been made to illuminate the nature of past hydroclimates in semi-arid and arid regions, where current and future shifts in water availability have enormous consequences on human subsistence. Deep desert aquifers, where groundwater is stored for prolonged periods, might serve as a direct record of major paleo-recharge events. To date, groundwater-based paleoclimate reconstructions have mainly focused on a relatively narrow timescale (up to ∼40 kyr), limited by the relatively short half-life of the widely used radiocarbon (5.73 kyr). Here we demonstrate the usage of deep regional aquifers in the arid southeastern Mediterranean as a hydroclimate archive for earlier Mid-to-Late Pleistocene epochs. State-of-the-art dating tools, primarily the 81 Kr radioisotope (t 1/2 = 229 kyr), were combined with other atmosphere-derived tracers to illuminate the impact of four distinguishable wetter episodes over the past 400 kyr, with differences in climatic conditions and paleo-recharge locations. Variations in stable water isotope composition suggest moisture transport from more proximal (Mediterranean) and distal (Atlantic) sources to different parts of the region at distinct times. Large variability in the computed noble gas-based recharge temperature (NGT), ranging ~15–30 °C, cannot be explained by climate variations solely, and points to different recharge pathways, including geothermal heating in the deep unsaturated zone and recharge from high-elevation (colder) regions. The obtained groundwater record complements and enhances the interpretation of other terrestrial archives in the arid region, including a contribution of valuable information regarding the moisture source origin as reflected in the deuterium-excess values, which is unattainable from the common practice analysis of calcitic cave deposits. We conclude that similar applications in other deep (hundred-m-order) regional groundwater systems (e.g., the Sahara desert aquifers) can significantly advance our understanding of long-term (up to 1 Myr) paleo-hydroclimate in arid regions, including places where no terrestrial remnants, such as cave, lake, and spring sediments, are available.

Atom Trap Trace Analysis↗

DOE OSTI2025

yProv4ML: Effortless provenance tracking for machine learning systems

The rapid growth in interest in deep learning and foundation models (FMs) in particular, has attracted the attention of a diverse range of researchers thanks to their generalization ability. However, the advent of these techniques has also brought to light the lack of transparency and rigor in the way development is pursued. In particular, the inability to determine the number of epochs and other hyperparameters in advance presents challenges in identifying the best model. To address this challenge, machine learning frameworks such as MLFlow can automate the collection of this type of information. However, these tools capture data using proprietary formats and pose little attention to lineage. This paper proposes yProv4ML, a framework that captures provenance information generated during machine learning processes in PROV-JSON format, with minimal code modification.

Machine learning↗

DOE OSTI2025

Boosting Noise2Inverse via enhanced model selection for denoising computed tomography data

Synchrotron-based x-ray tomographic imaging enables the examination of the internal structure of materials at high spatial and temporal resolution. Experimental constraints can impose dose and time limits on the measurements, introducing a higher level of noise and artifacts in the reconstructed images. Deep learning has emerged as a powerful tool to remove noise from reconstructed images. Recently, the Noise2Inverse method was designed specifically for denoising reconstructed images without requiring paired noisy and clean images. This method creates multiple statistically independent reconstructions used to pair the data in which training involves transforming one reconstruction into the other, and vice versa. Originally designed to be used after a fixed number of epochs, we see in practice that this approach may not produce the optimal model and may unnecessarily waste computational resources. Therefore, we propose an alternative method of identifying the best model during training that aligns with the Noise2Inverse method. During validation, we compare the model output of the multiple reconstructions among each other. We hypothesize that the best model is the one that produces images with the highest similarity, implying a convergence in the predicted material properties and absorption values. To compare model outputs, we consider the absolute error, square error, structural similarity index (SSIM), peak signal-to-noise ratio (PSNR), and cosine similarity. We evaluate our method on two simulated tomography datasets and two, real-world, low-contrast, high-energy x-ray tomography datasets. We show our approach is more effective at determining the best model, up to an increase of 12.50% and 12.53% in SSIM and PSNR, respectively, while only requiring a fifth of the training time compared to the original approach.

CT↗

DOE OSTI2025

Vortical interactions in turbulent thermoacoustic systems

This study examines the dynamics of vortical interactions and their implications for mitigating thermoacoustic instability in a turbulent combustor. The regions of intense vortical interactions are identified as vortical communities in the network space of weighted directed vortical networks constructed from two-dimensional experimental velocity data. One can expect vortical interactions in the combustor to be strongest near the moment of vortex shedding, as the shed vortices gradually weaken due to dissipation while convecting downstream. However, we show that, during the state of thermoacoustic instability, there is a non-trivial consistent phase lag of approximately 52° between the shedding of the coherent structures from the backward-facing step and the time instant when the vortical interactions attain their local maximum value. We explain this phase lag by investigating the correlation between acoustic pressure fluctuations, spatio-temporal dynamics of coherent structures and vortical interactions in the reaction field of the combustor. We also show the aperiodic variation of vortical interactions during the states of combustion noise and aperiodic epochs of intermittency. Furthermore, the spatio-temporal evolution of pairs of vortical communities with the maximum inter-community interactions provides insight into explaining the critical regions detected in the reaction field during the states of intermittency and thermoacoustic instability, also identified in previous studies. As a result, we further show that the most efficient suppression of thermoacoustic instability via air microjet injection is achieved when steady air jets are introduced to disrupt the maximum inter-community interactions present during the state of thermoacoustic instability.

Sahay, Ankit [Indian Institute of Technology Madra↗

DOE OSTI2026

OzDES Reverberation Mapping of Active Galactic Nuclei: Final Data Release, Black-Hole Mass Results, & Scaling Relations

Over the last decade, the Australian Dark Energy (OzDES) collaboration has used Reverberation Mapping to measure the masses of high redshift supermassive black holes. Here we present the final review and analysis of this OzDES reverberation mapping campaign. These observations use 6-7 years of photometric and spectroscopic observations of 735 Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) in the redshift range 0.13-3.85 and bolometric luminosity range 44.3 - 47.5 erg/s. Both photometry and spectra are observed in visible wavelengths, allowing for the physical scale of the AGN broad line region to be estimated from reverberations of the H{̱e̱ṯa̱}̱, MgII and CIV emission lines. We successfully use reverberation mapping to constrain the masses of 62 super-massive black holes, and combine with existing data to fit a power law to the lag-luminosity relation for the H{̱e̱ṯa̱}̱ and MgII lines with a scatter of ~0.25 dex, the tightest yet identified, fit specifically for consistency with high redshift AGN. We fit a similarly constrained relation for CIV, resolving a tension with the low luminosity literature AGN by accounting for selection effects arising from finite survey length. We also examine the impact of emission line width and luminosity (related to accretion rate) in reducing the scatter of these scaling relationships and find no significant improvement over the lag-only approach for any of the three lines. Using these relations, we further estimate the masses and accretion rates of 246 AGN with single epoch methods. We also use these relations to estimate the relative sizes of the H{̱e̱ṯa̱}̱, MgII and CIV emitting regions. In short, we provide a comprehensive benchmark of high redshift AGN reverberation mapping at the close of this most recent generation of surveys, including light curves, time-delays, and a set of significantly improved radius-luminosity relations for use with high-redshift populations.

McDougall, Hugh [Queensland U.]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Resistive Switching of Spinel Li 4 Ti 5 O 12 Lithium-Ion Battery Material for Neuromorphic Computing

The rapid rise of AI has exposed significant limitations in conventional Von Neumann computing architecture, particularly in regard to speed and energy efficiency. To address these challenges, researchers are exploring a brain-inspired neuromorphic architecture that mimics biological neural networks, enabling massive parallel processing with reduced power consumption for complex AI computational demands. Recent interest has focused on utilizing battery electrodes and solid electrolyte materials for their resistive switching properties in developing a neuromorphic architecture. These properties are precisely tuned through local- and bulk-level chemical composition modifications via voltage bias stimuli. In this study, we demonstrate fabricating a three-terminal lithium-ion electrochemical transistor based on lithium titanium oxide (Li 4 Ti 5 O 12 ), a popular lithium-ion battery anode material. We deposited and characterized LTO thin films using RF sputtering, demonstrating a 6 orders of magnitude increase in electronic conductivity upon lithiation, with conductivity plateauing after 20% lithiation. Density functional theory calculations revealed transformation from the insulating to conducting state, supported by experimental characterization through X-Ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy (XPS) and Direct Current (DC) polarization analyses. The fabricated transistor consisted of LTO as the channel layer, gold as source/drain terminals, lithium phosphorus oxynitride (LiPON) as the lithium-ion conductor, and copper as the gate terminal. The device exhibited clear hysteresis in transfer characteristics due to lithium insertion/extraction processes. Long-term potentiation (LTP) and long-term depression (LTD) measurements showed an asymmetric ratio of 1.425 and maximum/minimum conductance ratio of 7.83. When implemented in a deep neural network (DNN) for MNIST handwritten digit recognition, the device achieved 92.03% accuracy over 20 training epochs. Detailed transport mechanism analysis revealed the crucial role of oxygen vacancies and interface effects in device operation. Our preliminary findings establish LTO-based lithium-ion electrochemical transistors as promising candidates for energy-efficient neuromorphic computing applications, offering potential solutions to traditional Von Neumann architecture limitations.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Pitch Angle Dependence of Electron and Ion Flux Changes During Local Magnetic Dipolarization Inside Geosynchronous Orbit

In this study we have statistically examined flux changes of 1–1,000-keV electrons, and hydrogen, helium, and oxygen ions during local magnetic dipolarization inside geosynchronous orbit, with a focus on their pitch angle dependence. Here, using 144 dipolarization events that were selected in a previous study with Van Allen Probes observations in 2012–2016, we have performed a superposed epoch analysis of differential flux changes after the dipolarization onset for each species. On average the electron flux increases primarily around pitch angle (α) = 90° at >80 keV and almost isotropically at 10–50 keV. The electron flux at <5 keV increases at α = 0° and 180° but slightly decreases (or remains unchanged) at α = 90°. On the other hand, the ion flux at >80 keV increases around α = 90°, while at <30 keV it decreases nearly independent of pitch angle. Only the low-energy (<5 keV) helium and oxygen ion flux changes indicate a strong field-aligned enhancement, which could be attributed to their outflows from the topside ionosphere. After the dipolarization onset, >5-keV electron and >30-keV ion fluxes exhibit a perpendicular anisotropy, which is most pronounced for 50–200-keV electrons. Both distributions become more isotropic with decreasing energy. A noticeable field-aligned anisotropy is seen for <5-keV ion fluxes. These statistical pitch angle-dependent electron and ion properties during dipolarizations may be explained by combining various processes, including adiabatic acceleration and/or transport, wave-particle interactions, and ion outflow.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Using Multiple Signatures to Improve Accuracy of Substorm Identification

Abstract We have developed a new procedure for combining lists of substorm onset times from multiple sources. We apply this procedure to observational data and to magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model output from 1–31 January 2005. We show that this procedure is capable of rejecting false positive identifications and filling data gaps that appear in individual lists. The resulting combined onset lists produce a waiting time distribution that is comparable to previously published results, and superposed epoch analyses of the solar wind driving conditions and magnetospheric response during the resulting onset times are also comparable to previous results. Comparison of the substorm onset list from the MHD model to that obtained from observational data reveals that the MHD model reproduces many of the characteristic features of the observed substorms, in terms of solar wind driving, magnetospheric response, and waiting time distribution. Heidke skill scores show that the MHD model has statistically significant skill in predicting substorm onset times.

Haiducek, John D.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Sustained Oxygen Spectral Gaps and Their Dynamic Evolution in the Inner Magnetosphere

Van Allen Probes observations of ion spectra often show a sustained gap within a very narrow energy range throughout the full orbit. To understand their formation mechanism, we statistically investigate the characteristics of the narrow gaps for oxygen ions and find that they are most frequently observed near the noon sector with a peak occurrence rate of over 30%. The magnetic moment (μ) of the oxygen ions in the gap shows a strong dependence on magnetic local time (MLT), with higher and lower μ values in the morning and afternoon sectors, respectively. Moreover, we find through superposed epoch analysis that the gap formation also depends on geomagnetic conditions. Those gaps formed at lower magnetic moments (μ < 3,000 keV/G) are associated with stable convection electric fields, which enable magnetospheric ions to follow a steady drift pattern that facilitates the gap formation by corotational drift resonance. On the other hand, gaps with higher μ values are statistically preceded by a gradual increase of geomagnetic activity. Here, we suggest that ions within the gap were originally located inside the Alfven layer following closed drift paths, before they were transitioned into open drift paths as the convection electric field was enhanced. The sunward drift of these ions, with very low fluxes, forms a drainage void in the dayside magnetosphere manifested as the sustained gap in the oxygen spectrum. This scenario is supported by particle-tracing simulations, which reproduce most of the observed characteristics and therefore provide new insights into inner magnetospheric dynamics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

On an Extensive Late Hydrologic Event in Gale Crater as Indicated by Water‐Rich Fracture Halos

Abstract We analyze spatially pervasive, light‐toned “halos” associated with fractures in a sedimentary unit (Stimson) of Gale crater, Mars, and report a similar network of halos discovered in a separate geologic group (Bradbury). Through a dedicated active neutron measurement campaign, we provide independent confirmation of the water‐rich nature of these features. Together with mineralogical and geochemical data, these features are consistent with abundant hydrated amorphous silica (opal‐A). We suggest that the mineral and amorphous assemblages are indicative of formation under low‐temperature and predominantly low‐pH conditions (passive silica enrichment) with minor contribution of silica (active silica enrichment) from adjacent units. We show that there is significant amorphous silica in the array of sedimentary rocks in Gale crater, allowing them to play a role in an active silica enrichment phase of halo formation. We suggest that the involved alteration event was short lived and our finding of vast halo networks in a distant, older unit implies a more vast network of hydrologic subsurface conduits than previously known. This relatively recent subsurface hydrologic system was present long after the transition from a warm and wet to a cold and dry Martian environment, extending the habitability conditions on Mars to an epoch that is generally considered not favorable for life on the surface. Finally, our bulk H quantification of these features, which ranges from ∼3–6 wt% H 2 O‐equivalent‐H, suggests that the amorphous material in halos hosts ample supplies of readily released water, making them a considerable resource at the otherwise dry Martian equator.

Gabriel, Travis S. J.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evolution of the Horizontal Winds in Jupiter's Great Red Spot From One Jovian Year of HST/WFC3 Maps

We measured the horizontal winds in Jupiter's Great Red Spot (GRS) using data from the WFC3/UVIS instrument on board the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). The data cover 11 epochs from 2009 to 2020. Long-term monotonic trends in size and shape previously noted from the visible cloud appearance are paralleled by changes in the high-speed ring around the vortex. The circularization of the GRS cannot be explained by changes in the horizontal wind shear of the surrounding environment. The velocity fields suggest no long-term trend in the static stability inside or outside the vortex. Instead, the changes are accompanied by a 4%–8% increase in the mean wind speeds of the high-speed ring from 2009 to 2020. Changes in the wind field coincided with the South Equatorial Belt Outbreak storms of 2016–2017, but not with 2019 "flaking" events involving detachment of red material from the main oval.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Magnetotail Variability During Magnetospheric Substorms

Abstract In this work, we present a statistical study of substorms covering a five‐year period 2016–2020. Substorm phases were identified from time series of the SuperMAG AL (SML) index using a list of 5,077 previously identified substorm onsets, the SML peak value marking transition from expansion to recovery phase, and the recovery identified as return to activity less than −100 nT in the SML index. Magnetic field observations from THEMIS, RBSP, and MMS missions were used to study the magnetotail characteristics during the substorm evolution. A superposed epoch analysis indicates that the substorm onset occurs almost simultaneously with a few minutes of uncertainty throughout the magnetotail, ranging from geostationary orbit to 20 RE. The onset in the transition region precedes the ground onset by a few minutes. The peak SML time coincides with the peak of the outer transition region Δ B Z , which suggests that the field‐aligned currents driving the SML activity arise from the outer transition region. Analysis of 2D maps of the tail magnetic field shows that the magnetotail current changes are limited to the center of the tail within | Y | < 10 R E . The substorm recovery is fastest in the inner transition region and lasts longer when moving further out. We did not find major asymmetries in the substorm signatures associated with IMF B Y or B Z .

Kumar, S.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Newly formed dust within the circumstellar environment of SN Ia-CSM 2018evt

Dust associated with various stellar sources in galaxies at all cosmic epochs remains a controversial topic, particularly whether supernovae play an important role in dust production. We report evidence of dust formation in the cold, dense shell behind the ejecta–circumstellar medium (CSM) interaction in the Type Ia-CSM supernova (SN) 2018evt three years after the explosion, characterized by a rise in mid-infrared emission accompanied by an accelerated decline in the optical radiation of the SN. Such a dust-formation picture is also corroborated by the concurrent evolution of the profiles of the Hα emission line. Our model suggests enhanced CSM dust concentration at increasing distances from the SN as compared to what can be expected from the density profile of the mass loss from a steady stellar wind. By the time of the last mid-infrared observations at day +1,041, a total amount of 1.2 ± 0.2 × 10 -2 M ⊙ of new dust has been formed by SN 2018evt, making SN 2018evt one of the most prolific dust factories among supernovae with evidence of dust formation. The unprecedented witness of the intense production procedure of dust may shed light on the perceptions of dust formation in cosmic history.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

A 2-million-year-old ecosystem in Greenland uncovered by environmental DNA

Late Pliocene and Early Pleistocene epochs 3.6 to 0.8 million years ago had climates resembling those forecasted under future warming. Palaeoclimatic records show strong polar amplification with mean annual temperatures of 11–19 °C above contemporary values. The biological communities inhabiting the Arctic during this time remain poorly known because fossils are rare. Here we report an ancient environmental DNA (eDNA) record describing the rich plant and animal assemblages of the Kap København Formation in North Greenland, dated to around two million years ago. The record shows an open boreal forest ecosystem with mixed vegetation of poplar, birch and thuja trees, as well as a variety of Arctic and boreal shrubs and herbs, many of which had not previously been detected at the site from macrofossil and pollen records. The DNA record confirms the presence of hare and mitochondrial DNA from animals including mastodons, reindeer, rodents and geese, all ancestral to their present-day and late Pleistocene relatives. The presence of marine species including horseshoe crab and green algae support a warmer climate than today. The reconstructed ecosystem has no modern analogue. The survival of such ancient eDNA probably relates to its binding to mineral surfaces. Our findings open new areas of genetic research, demonstrating that it is possible to track the ecology and evolution of biological communities from two million years ago using ancient eDNA.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Predator mass mortality events restructure food webs through trophic decoupling

Predators have a key role in structuring ecosystems. However, predator loss is accelerating globally, and predator mass-mortality events (MMEs)—rapid large-scale die-offs—are now emblematic of the Anthropocene epoch. Owing to their rare and unpredictable nature, we lack an understanding of how MMEs immediately impact ecosystems. Past predator-removal studies may be insufficient to understand the ecological consequences of MMEs because, in nature, dead predators decompose in situ and generate a resource pulse, which could alter ensuing ecosystem dynamics by temporarily enhancing productivity. Here we experimentally induce MMEs in tritrophic, freshwater lake food webs and report ecological dynamics that are distinct from predator losses or resource pulses alone, but that can be predicted from theory. MMEs led to the proliferation of diverse consumer and producer communities resulting from weakened top-down predator control and stronger bottom-up effects through predator decomposition. In contrast to predator removals alone, enhanced primary production after MMEs dampened the consumer community response. As a consequence, MMEs generated biomass dynamics that were most similar to those of undisturbed systems, indicating that they may be cryptic disturbances in nature. These biomass dynamics led to trophic decoupling, whereby the indirect beneficial effects of predators on primary producers are lost and later materialize as direct bottom-up effects that stimulate primary production amid intensified herbivory. Furthermore, these results reveal ecological signatures of MMEs and demonstrate the feasibility of forecasting novel ecological dynamics arising with intensifying global change.

Food webs↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying local and global mass balance errors in physics-informed neural networks

Physics-informed neural networks (PINN) have recently become attractive for solving partial differential equations (PDEs) that describe physics laws. By including PDE-based loss functions, physics laws such as mass balance are enforced softly in PINN. This paper investigates how mass balance constraints are satisfied when PINN is used to solve the resulting PDEs. We investigate PINN’s ability to solve the 1D saturated groundwater flow equations (diffusion equations) for homogeneous and heterogeneous media and evaluate the local and global mass balance errors. We compare the obtained PINN’s solution and associated mass balance errors against a two-point finite volume numerical method and the corresponding analytical solution. We also evaluate the accuracy of PINN in solving the 1D saturated groundwater flow equation with and without incorporating hydraulic heads as training data. We demonstrate that PINN’s local and global mass balance errors are significant compared to the finite volume approach. Tuning the PINN’s hyperparameters, such as the number of collocation points, training data, hidden layers, nodes, epochs, and learning rate, did not improve the solution accuracy or the mass balance errors compared to the finite volume solution. Mass balance errors could considerably challenge the utility of PINN in applications where ensuring compliance with physical and mathematical properties is crucial.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Physics-constrained machine learning for electrodynamics without gauge ambiguity based on Fourier transformed Maxwell’s equations

We utilize a Fourier transformation-based representation of Maxwell’s equations to develop physics-constrained neural networks for electrodynamics without gauge ambiguity, which we label the Fourier–Helmholtz–Maxwell neural operator method. In this approach, both of Gauss’s laws and Faraday’s law are built in as hard constraints, as well as the longitudinal component of Ampère–Maxwell in Fourier space, assuming the continuity equation. An encoder–decoder network acts as a solution operator for the transverse components of the Fourier transformed vector potential, $\hat{A}_⟂(k,t)$, whose two degrees of freedom are used to predict the electromagnetic fields. This method was tested on two electron beam simulations. Among the models investigated, it was found that a U-Net architecture exhibited the best performance as it trained quicker, was more accurate and generalized better than the other architectures examined. We demonstrate that our approach is useful for solving Maxwell’s equations for the electromagnetic fields generated by intense relativistic charged particle beams and that it generalizes well to unseen test data, while being orders of magnitude quicker than conventional simulations. We show that the model can be re-trained to make highly accurate predictions in as few as 20 epochs on a previously unseen data set.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗