Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “ensemble methods”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Selecting Appropriate Model Complexity: An Example of Tracer Inversion for Thermal Prediction in Enhanced Geothermal Systems

Abstract A major challenge in the inversion of subsurface parameters is the ill‐posedness issue caused by the inherent subsurface complexities and the generally spatially sparse data. Appropriate simplifications of inversion models are thus necessary to make the inversion process tractable and meanwhile preserve the predictive ability of the inversion results. In this study, we investigate the effect of model complexity on fracture aperture inversion and thermal performance prediction in a field‐scale EGS model. Principal component analysis was used to map the aperture field to a low‐dimensional latent space. The complexity of the inversion model was quantitatively represented by the percentage of total variance in the original aperture fields preserved by the latent space. Tracer, pressure and flow rate data were used to invert for fracture aperture through an ensemble‐based inversion method, and the inferred aperture field was used to predict thermal performance. With an over‐simplified aperture model, ensemble collapse occurred. The inverted aperture models failed to resolve necessary flow and transport features, leading to a biased thermal performance prediction. A complex aperture model involved excessive features and was prone to overinterpreting the inversion data. Both the tracer/pressure/flow rate data reproduction and thermal prediction showed significant uncertainties, making it difficult to properly estimate long‐term thermal performance. Fortunately, our results indicate that there exists an appropriate model complexity which can simultaneously match inversion data and predict thermal performance with an acceptable uncertainty. The quality of the fit of tracer data appears to be a useful indicator of such an appropriate model complexity.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive performance of such forecasts if multiple models are combined into an ensemble. Here, we report on the performance of ensembles in predicting COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe between 08 March 2021 and 07 March 2022. Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance. Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models. Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks. Funding: AA, BH, BL, LWa, MMa, PP, SV funded by National Institutes of Health (NIH) Grant 1R01GM109718, NSF BIG DATA Grant IIS-1633028, NSF Grant No.: OAC-1916805, NSF Expeditions in Computing Grant CCF-1918656, CCF-1917819, NSF RAPID CNS-2028004, NSF RAPID OAC-2027541, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 75D30119C05935, a grant from Google, University of Virginia Strategic Investment Fund award number SIF160, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) under Contract No. HDTRA1-19-D-0007, and respectively Virginia Dept of Health Grant VDH-21-501-0141, VDH-21-501-0143, VDH-21-501-0147, VDH-21-501-0145, VDH-21-501-0146, VDH-21-501-0142, VDH-21-501-0148. AF, AMa, GL funded by SMIGE - Modelli statistici inferenziali per governare l'epidemia, FISR 2020-Covid-19 I Fase, FISR2020IP-00156, Codice Progetto: PRJ-0695. AM, BK, FD, FR, JK, JN, JZ, KN, MG, MR, MS, RB funded by Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Poland with grant 28/WFSN/2021 to the University of Warsaw. BRe, CPe, JLAz funded by Ministerio de Sanidad/ISCIII. BT, PG funded by PERISCOPE European H2020 project, contract number 101016233. CP, DL, EA, MC, SA funded by European Commission - Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology through the contract LC-01485746, and Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00. DE., MGu funded by Spanish Ministry of Health / REACT-UE (FEDER). DO, GF, IMi, LC funded by Laboratory Directed Research and Development program of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) under project number 20200700ER. DS, ELR, GG, NGR, NW, YW funded by National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582; the content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health). FB, FP funded by InPresa, Lombardy Region, Italy. HG, KS funded by European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. IV funded by Agencia de Qualitat i Avaluacio Sanitaries de Catalunya (AQuAS) through contract 2021-021OE. JDe, SMo, VP funded by Netzwerk Universitatsmedizin (NUM) project egePan (01KX2021). JPB, SH, TH funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF; grant 05M18SIA). KH, MSc, YKh funded by Project SaxoCOV, funded by the German Free State of Saxony. Presentation of data, model results and simulations also funded by the NFDI4Health Task Force COVID-19 ( https://www.nfdi4health.de/task-force-covid-19-2 ) within the framework of a DFG-project (LO-342/17-1). LP, VE funded by Mathematical and Statistical modelling project (MUNI/A/1615/2020), Online platform for real-time monitoring, analysis and management of epidemic situations (MUNI/11/02202001/2020); VE also supported by RECETOX research infrastructure (Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic: LM2018121), the CETOCOEN EXCELLENCE (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/17-043/0009632), RECETOX RI project (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16-013/0001761). NIB funded by Health Protection Research Unit (grant code NIHR200908). SAb, SF funded by Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Development and evaluation of a new 4DEnVar-based weakly coupled ocean data assimilation system in E3SMv2

The development, implementation, and evaluation of a new weakly coupled ocean data assimilation (WCODA) system for the fully coupled Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) utilizing the four-dimensional ensemble variational (4DEnVar) method are presented in this study. The 4DEnVar method, based on the dimension-reduced projection four-dimensional variational (DRP-4DVar) approach, replaces the adjoint model with the ensemble technique, thereby reducing computational demands. Monthly mean ocean temperature and salinity data from the EN4.2.1 reanalysis are integrated into the ocean component of E3SMv2 from 1950 to 2021 with the goal of providing realistic initial conditions for decadal predictions and predictability studies. The performance of the WCODA system is assessed using various metrics, including the reduction rate of the cost function, root mean square error (RMSE) differences, correlation differences, and model biases. Results indicate that the WCODA system effectively assimilates the reanalysis data into the climate model, consistently achieving negative reduction rates of the cost function and notable improvements in RMSE and correlation across various ocean layers and regions. Significant enhancements are observed in the upper ocean layers across the majority of global ocean regions, particularly in the north Atlantic, north Pacific, and Indian Ocean. Model biases in sea surface temperature and salinity are also substantially reduced. For sea surface temperature, cold biases in the north Pacific and north Atlantic are diminished by about 1–2 °C, and warm biases in the Southern Ocean are corrected by approximately 1.5–2.5 °C. In terms of salinity, improvements are observed with bias reductions of about 0.5–1 psu in the north Atlantic and north Pacific and up to 1.5 psu in parts of the Southern Ocean. The ultimate goal of the WCODA system is to advance the predictive capabilities of E3SM for subseasonal to decadal climate predictions, thereby supporting research on strategic energy-sector policies and planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

CO 2 storage site characterization using ensemble-based approaches with deep generative models

Estimating spatially distributed properties such as permeability from available sparse measurements is a great challenge in efficient subsurface CO 2 storage operations. In this paper, a deep generative model that can accurately capture complex subsurface structure is tested with an ensemble-based inversion method for accurate and accelerated characterization of CO 2 storage sites. We chose Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Network with Gradient Penalty (WGAN-GP) for its realistic reservoir property representation and Ensemble Smoother with Multiple Data Assimilation (ES-MDA) for its robust data fitting and uncertainty quantification capability. WGAN-GP are trained to generate high-dimensional permeability fields from a low-dimensional latent space and ES-MDA then updates the latent variables by assimilating available measurements. Several subsurface site characterization examples including Gaussian, channelized, and fractured reservoirs are used to evaluate the accuracy and computational efficiency of the proposed method and the main features of the unknown permeability fields are characterized accurately with reliable uncertainty quantification. Furthermore, the estimation performance is compared with a widely-used variational, i.e., optimization-based, inversion approach, and the proposed approach outperforms the variational inversion method in several benchmark cases. We explain such superior performance by visualizing the objective function in the latent space: because of nonlinear and aggressive dimension reduction via generative modeling, the objective function surface becomes extremely complex while the ensemble approximation can smooth out the multi-modal surface during the minimization. This suggests that the ensemble-based approach works well over the variational approach when combined with deep generative models at the cost of forward model runs unless convergence-ensuring modifications are implemented in the variational inversion.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Local indistinguishability and incompleteness of entangled orthogonal bases: Method to generate two-element locally indistinguishable ensembles

Highlights: • Local indistinguishability of orthogonal quantum states. • Bipartite and multipartite quantum ensembles. • Unextendible entangled bases and uncompletable entangled bases. • Two-element locally indistinguishable quantum ensembles. • Multiparty unextendible entangled bases with unextendibility in all partitions. We relate the phenomenon of local indistinguishability of orthogonal states with the properties of unextendibility and uncompletability of entangled bases for bipartite and multipartite quantum systems. We prove that all two-qubit unextendible entangled bases are of size three and they cannot be perfectly distinguished by separable measurements. We identify a method of constructing two-element orthogonal ensembles, based on the concept of unextendible entangled bases, that can potentially lead to information sharing applications. Two-element ensembles form the fundamental unit of ensembles, and yet does not offer locally indistinguishable ensembles for pure state elements. Going over to mixed states does open this possibility, but can be difficult to identify. The method provided using unextendible entangled bases can be used for their systematic generation. In multipartite systems, we find a class of unextendible entangled bases for which the unextendibility property remains conserved across all bipartitions. We also identify nonlocal operations, local implementation of which require entangled resource states from a higher-dimensional quantum system.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hyperspectral Detection of the Fluorescence Shift between Chirality-Sorted Empty and Water-Filled Single-Wall Carbon Nanotube Enantiomers

Single-wall carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs) have extraordinary electronic and optical properties that depend strongly on their exact chiral structure and their interaction with their inner and outer environment. The fluorescence (PL) of semiconducting SWCNTs, for instance, will shift depending on the molecules with which the SWCNT’s hollow core is filled. These interaction-induced shifts are challenging to resolve on the ensemble level in samples containing a mixture of different filling contents due to the relatively large inhomogeneous line width of the ensemble SWCNT PL compared to the size of these shifts. To circumvent this inhomogeneous broadening, single-tube spectroscopy and hyperspectral imaging are often applied, which until now required time-consuming statistical studies. Here, we present hyperspectral PL microscopy combined with automated SWCNT segmenting based on either principal component analysis or a convolutional neural network, capable of both spatially and spectrally resolving the PL along the length of many individual SWCNTs at the same time and automatically fitting peak positions and line widths of individual SWCNTs. The methodology is demonstrated by accurately determining the emission shifts and line widths of thousands of left- and right-handed empty and water-filled SWCNTs coated with a chiral surfactant, resulting in four statistical distributions which cannot be resolved in ensemble spectroscopy of unsorted samples. The results demonstrate a robust method to quickly probe ensemble properties with single-enantiomer spectral resolution. Moreover, it promises to be an absolute quantitative method to characterize the relative abundances of SWCNTs with different handedness or filling content in macroscopic samples, simply by counting individual species.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty quantification in machine learning for engineering design and health prognostics: A tutorial

On top of machine learning (ML) models, uncertainty quantification (UQ) functions as an essential layer of safety assurance that could lead to more principled decision making by enabling sound risk assessment and management. The safety and reliability improvement of ML models empowered by UQ has the potential to significantly facilitate the broad adoption of ML solutions in high-stakes decision settings, such as healthcare, manufacturing, and aviation, to name a few. In this tutorial, we aim to provide a holistic lens on emerging UQ methods for ML models with a particular focus on neural networks and the applications of these UQ methods in tackling engineering design as well as prognostics and health management problems. Towards this goal, we start with a comprehensive classification of uncertainty types, sources, and causes pertaining to UQ of ML models. Next, we provide a tutorial-style description of several state-of-the-art UQ methods: Gaussian process regression, Bayesian neural network, neural network ensemble, and deterministic UQ methods focusing on spectral-normalized neural Gaussian process. Established upon the mathematical formulations, we subsequently examine the soundness of these UQ methods quantitatively and qualitatively (by a toy regression example) to examine their strengths and shortcomings from different dimensions. Then, we review quantitative metrics commonly used to assess the quality of predictive uncertainty in classification and regression problems. Afterward, we discuss the increasingly important role of UQ of ML models in solving challenging problems in engineering design and health prognostics. In conclusion, two case studies with source codes available on GitHub are used to demonstrate these UQ methods and compare their performance in the life prediction of lithium-ion batteries at the early stage (case study 1) and the remaining useful life prediction of turbofan engines (case study 2).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

New, improved analysis of correlation ECE data to accurately determine turbulent electron temperature spectra and magnitudes (invited)

Turbulent electron temperature fluctuation measurement using a correlation electron cyclotron emission (CECE) radiometer has become an important diagnostic for studying energy transport in fusion plasmas, and its use is widespread in tokamaks (DIII-D, ASDEX Upgrade, Alcator C-Mod, Tore Supra, EAST, TCV, HL-2A, etc.). The CECE diagnostic typically performs correlation analysis between two closely spaced (within the turbulent correlation length) ECE channels that are dominated by uncorrelated thermal noise emission. This allows electron temperature fluctuations embedded in the thermal noise to be revealed and fluctuation level and spectra determined. We have demonstrated a new, improved CECE coherency-based analysis for calculating the temperature fluctuation frequency spectrum and level, which has been verified both numerically through the simulation of synthetic ECE radiometer data and through analysis of experimental data from the CECE system on DIII-D. The new formulation places coherency-based analysis on a firm foundational footing and corrects some currently published methodologies. This new method accurately accounts for bias error in the coherence function and correctly calculates noise levels for a fixed data record length. It provides excellent accuracy in determining temperature fluctuation level (e.g., <10% error) even for a small realization number in the ensemble average. The method also has a smaller uncertainty (i.e., error bar) in the power spectrum when compared to the more standard cross-power method when evaluated at low coherency. Direct calculation of system noise level using correlation between randomized intermediate frequency signals is recommended.

Wang, G. (ORCID:0000000225739827)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty guided online ensemble for non-stationary data streams in fusion science

Machine Learning (ML) is poised to play a pivotal role in the development and operation of next-generation fusion devices. Fusion data shows non-stationary behavior with distribution drifts, resulted by both experimental evolution and machine wear-and-tear. ML models assume stationary distribution and fail to maintain performance when encountered with such non-stationary data streams. Online learning techniques have been leveraged in other domains, however it has been largely unexplored for fusion applications. In this paper, we investigate online learning for continuous adaptation to drifting data streams in the prediction of Toroidal Field (TF) coils deflection at the DIII-D fusion facility. We further address the short-term performance degradation inherent to standard online learning, which arises because ground truth is unavailable at prediction time. To mitigate this issue, we propose an uncertainty-guided online ensemble framework. The method leverages the Deep Gaussian Process Approximation (DGPA) for calibrated uncertainty estimation and uses these uncertainty measures to guide a meta-algorithm that aggregates predictions from learners trained over different historical horizons. Our results show that online learning reduces prediction error by 80% compared to a static model. The online ensemble and the proposed uncertainty-guided ensemble further reduce error by approximately 6%, and 10% respectively, relative to standard single-model online learning, while also providing calibrated uncertainty estimates to support operational decision-making.

AI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physics-Informed Gaussian Process Regression for States Estimation and Forecasting in Power Grids

Real-time state estimation and forecasting are critical for the efficient operation of power grids. In this paper, a physics-informed Gaussian process regression (PhI-GPR) method is presented and used for forecasting and estimating the phase angle, angular speed, and wind mechanical power of a three-generator power grid system using sparse measurements. In standard data-driven Gaussian process regression (GPR), parameterized models for the prior statistics are fit by maximizing the marginal likelihood of observed data. In the PhI-GPR method, we propose to compute the prior statistics offline by solving stochastic differential equations (SDEs) governing the power grid dynamics. The short-term forecast of a power grid system dominated by wind generation is complicated by the stochastic nature of the wind and the resulting uncertainty in wind mechanical power. Here, we assume that the power grid dynamics are governed by swing equations, with the wind mechanical power fluctuating randomly in time. We solve these equations for the mean and covariances of the power grid states using the Monte Carlo simulation method. We demonstrate that the proposed PhI-GPR method can accurately forecast and estimate observed and unobserved states. For the considered problem, PhI-GPR has computational advantages over the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) method: In PhI-GPR, ensembles are computed offline and independently of the data acquisition process, whereas for EnFK, ensembles are computed online with data acquisition, rendering real-time forecast more challenging. We also demonstrate that the PhI-GPR forecast is more accurate than the EnKF forecast when the random mechanical wind power is non-Markovian. In contrast, the two methods produce similar forecasts for the Markovian mechanical wind power. For observed states, we show that PhI-GPR provides a forecast comparable to the standard data-driven GPR; both forecasts are significantly more accurate than the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forecast. We also show that the ARIMA forecast is more sensitive to observation frequency and measurement errors than the PhI-GPR forecast.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Characterizing the Reproducibility of Noisy Quantum Circuits

The ability of a quantum computer to reproduce or replicate the results of a quantum circuit is a key concern for verifying and validating applications of quantum computing. Statistical variations in circuit outcomes that arise from ill-characterized fluctuations in device noise may lead to computational errors and irreproducible results. While device characterization offers a direct assessment of noise, an outstanding concern is how such metrics bound the reproducibility of a given quantum circuit. Here, we first directly assess the reproducibility of a noisy quantum circuit, in terms of the Hellinger distance between the computational results, and then we show that device characterization offers an analytic bound on the observed variability. We validate the method using an ensemble of single qubit test circuits, executed on a superconducting transmon processor with well-characterized readout and gate error rates. The resulting description for circuit reproducibility, in terms of a composite device parameter, is confirmed to define an upper bound on the observed Hellinger distance, across the variable test circuits. This predictive correlation between circuit outcomes and device characterization offers an efficient method for assessing the reproducibility of noisy quantum circuits.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

High dimensional predictions of suicide risk in 4.2 million US Veterans using ensemble transfer learning

We present an ensemble transfer learning method to predict suicide from Veterans Affairs (VA) electronic medical records (EMR). A diverse set of base models was trained to predict a binary outcome constructed from reported suicide, suicide attempt, and overdose diagnoses with varying choices of study design and prediction methodology. Each model used twenty cross-sectional and 190 longitudinal variables observed in eight time intervals covering 7.5 years prior to the time of prediction. Ensembles of seven base models were created and fine-tuned with ten variables expected to change with study design and outcome definition in order to predict suicide and combined outcome in a prospective cohort. The ensemble models achieved c-statistics of 0.73 on 2-year suicide risk and 0.83 on the combined outcome when predicting on a prospective cohort of ~4.2 M veterans. The ensembles rely on nonlinear base models trained using a matched retrospective nested case-control (Rcc) study cohort and show good calibration across a diversity of subgroups, including risk strata, age, sex, race, and level of healthcare utilization. In addition, a linear Rcc base model provided a rich set of biological predictors, including indicators of suicide, substance use disorder, mental health diagnoses and treatments, hypoxia and vascular damage, and demographics. Similar content being viewed by others

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling Intercalation Chemistry with Multiredox Reactions by Sparse Lattice Models in Disordered Rocksalt Cathodes

Modern battery materials can contain many elements with substantial site disorder, and their configurational state has been shown to be critical for their performance. The intercalation voltage profile is a critical parameter to evaluate the performance of energy storage. The application of commonly used cluster expansion techniques to model the intercalation thermodynamics of such systems ab initio is challenged by the combinatorial increase in configurational degrees of freedom as the number of species grows. Such challenges necessitate the efficient generation of lattice models without overfitting and proper sampling of the configurational space under the requirement of charge balance in ionic systems. In this work, we introduce a combined approach that addresses these challenges by (1) constructing a robust cluster expansion Hamiltonian using the sparse regression technique, including -norm regularization and structural hierarchy; and (2) implementing semigrand-canonical Monte Carlo to sample charge-balanced ionic configurations using the table-exchange method and an ensemble average approach. These techniques are applied to a disordered rocksalt oxyfluoride (LMNOF) that is part of a family of promising earth-abundant cathode materials. The simulated voltage profile is found to be in good agreement with experimental data and particularly provides a clear demonstration of the and oxygen contributions to the redox potential as a function of content.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Computational investigation of hysteresis and phase equilibria of n-alkanes in a metal-organic framework with both micropores and mesopores

Abstract Adsorption hysteresis is a phenomenon related to phase transitions that can impact applications such as gas storage and separations in porous materials. Computational approaches can greatly facilitate the understanding of phase transitions and phase equilibria in porous materials. In this work, adsorption isotherms for methane, ethane, propane, and n-hexane were calculated from atomistic grand canonical Monte Carlo (GCMC) simulations in a metal-organic framework having both micropores and mesopores to better understand hysteresis and phase equilibria between connected pores of different size and the external bulk fluid. At low temperatures, the calculated isotherms exhibit sharp steps accompanied by hysteresis. As a complementary simulation method, canonical (NVT) ensemble simulations with Widom test particle insertions are demonstrated to provide additional information about these systems. The NVT+Widom simulations provide the full van der Waals loop associated with the sharp steps and hysteresis, including the locations of the spinodal points and points within the metastable and unstable regions that are inaccessible to GCMC simulations. The simulations provide molecular-level insight into pore filling and equilibria between high- and low-density states within individual pores. The effect of framework flexibility on adsorption hysteresis is also investigated for methane in IRMOF-1.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Simulated effects of sample size and grain neighborhood on the modeling of extreme value fatigue response

Assessing the size of representative volume elements (RVEs) for fatigue-related applications is challenging. A RVE relevant to random microstructure requires a volume of material that is sufficiently large to capture the grain/phase heterogeneity that captures all statistical moments of the distribution of the driving force for fatigue crack formation at “hot spot” grains. Consequently, the large size of a microstructure RVE required to study fatigue phenomena is largely computationally intractable and difficult to explore. A more realistic objective in this work is to systematically study, as a function of the size of a statistical sample of microstructure, trends towards convergence of the simulated distribution of driving force for fatigue crack formation. Our present work accordingly leverages the recently developed open-source PRISMS-Fatigue framework to examine the trends in convergence of extreme value distributions (EVD) of Fatigue Indicator Parameters (FIPs) in progressively larger polycrystalline microstructure realizations of FCC Al alloy 7075-T6 using crystal plasticity finite element method simulations. The results are compared to the traditional method in which ensembles of statistical volume elements (SVEs) are simulated to build up statistics intended to approximate those associated with a larger volume of material. The convergence of EVDs with increase of size of a SVE of microstructure is closely related to the extent of grain nearest neighbor (NN) interactions. Accordingly, the sensitivity of the local micromechanical response at hot spot grains is quantitatively investigated by systematically varying the orientations of NN grains. Results indicate that SVEs with cubic crystallographic texture tend towards convergence of the EVD of FIPs with tens of thousands of grains while the random and rolled textures require larger volumes. Simple relationships based on microstructure parameters (e.g., Schmid Factor, grain size, NN misorientation) do not completely correlate to fatigue hot spot grains. Finally, the sensitivity of the extreme value fatigue response at hot spot grains extends to the 3rd NN when a single neighborhood grain orientation is altered.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Joint state-parameter estimation for the reduced fracture model via the united filter

Here, in this paper, we introduce an effective United Filter method for jointly estimating the solution state and physical parameters in flow and transport problems within fractured porous media. Fluid flow and transport in fractured porous media are critical in subsurface hydrology, geophysics, and reservoir geomechanics. Reduced fracture models, which represent fractures as lower-dimensional interfaces, enable efficient multi-scale simulations. However, reduced fracture models also face accuracy challenges due to modeling errors and uncertainties in physical parameters such as permeability and fracture geometry. To address these challenges, we propose a United Filter method, which integrates the Ensemble Score Filter (EnSF) for state estimation with the Direct Filter for parameter estimation. EnSF, based on a score-based diffusion model framework, produces ensemble representations of the state distribution without deep learning. Meanwhile, the Direct Filter, a recursive Bayesian inference method, estimates parameters directly from state observations. The United Filter combines these methods iteratively: EnSF estimates are used to refine parameter values, which are then fed back to improve state estimation. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the United Filter method surpasses the state-of-the-art Augmented Ensemble Kalman Filter, delivering more accurate state and parameter estimation for reduced fracture models. This framework also provides a robust and efficient solution for PDE-constrained inverse problems with uncertainties and sparse observations.

Bayesian inference↗
DOE OSTI2020

Identification of major moisture sources across the Mediterranean Basin

We employ a Lagrangian based moisture back trajectory method on an ensemble of four reanalysis datasets to provide a comprehensive understanding of moisture sources over the Mediterranean land region (30° N–49.5° N and 9.75° W–61.5° E) at seasonal timescales for 1980–2013 period. Using a source region between 10° S–71.35° N along the latitude and 80° W–84.88° E along the longitude that is subdivided into ten complimentary sub-regions, our analyses is able to backtrack up to > 90% of seasonal precipitation at each grid point within the target region. Our results indicate a significant role of moisture advected from the North Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea, and locally recycled moisture over the target region in shaping the spatial organization of seasonal precipitation. However, a clear east–west contrast is witnessed in determining the relative importance of each of these major moisture sources where the North Atlantic dictates the moisture supply over the western Mediterranean while moisture from Mediterranean Sea and local recycling play a key role over the eastern Mediterranean. Our analyses also demonstrate a major footprint of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on precipitation variability over the Mediterranean land as dynamic and thermodynamic anomalies during the negative phase of NAO match with those during wet years and vice versa. The findings reported here are generally consistent across the four reanalysis datasets. Overall, this study establishes the relative roles of adjacent and far-off oceanic and terrestrial evaporative sources over the Mediterranean land and should help in understanding the drivers of precipitation variability and change at varying timescales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sequential ensemble transform for Bayesian inverse problems

In this work, we present the Sequential Ensemble Transform (SET) method, an approach for generating approximate samples from a Bayesian posterior distribution. The method explores the posterior distribution by solving a sequence of discrete optimal transport problems to produce a series of transport plans which map prior samples to posterior samples. We prove that the sequence of Dirac mixture distributions produced by the SET method converges weakly to the true posterior as the sample size approaches infinity. Furthermore, our numerical results indicate that, when compared to standard Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, the SET approach is more robust to the choice of Markov mutation kernels and requires less computational efforts to reach a similar accuracy when used to explore complex posterior distributions. Finally, we describe adaptive schemes that allow to completely automate the use of the SET method.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗