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At least 127 records · Page 7

Nuclear Energy in Long-Term System Models: A Multi-Model Perspective

Long-term energy system models–including electric sector capacity expansion models–are widely used tools for informing planning, technology assessment, and policy analysis. Recent decarbonization goals and rapid technological change have increased the need to appropriately represent economic characteristics and technical details of energy system resources, including variable renewable energy, energy storage technologies, carbon-capture-equipped capacity, and nuclear energy. Nuclear power represents about 20% of electricity generation and 50% of carbon-free electricity in the United States as of 2021. However, there are many perspectives on the role of existing and new nuclear in the future U.S. energy system, which is reflected in the broad range of potential contributions reported in the literature. This project aims to understand how issues central to nuclear energy are represented in long-term energy models. Building on earlier collaborations that focused on variable renewable energy and energy storage, this project convenes four modeling teams that use national-scale long-term energy system models from the Electric Power Research Institute, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to share methods and data, update models, run coordinated scenarios, and identify research needs. Improving tools can provide more insightful analyses and ensure that methods are more transparent.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Insights for Canadian electricity generation planning from an integrated assessment model: Should we be more cautious about hydropower cost overruns?

Hydropower accounts for approximately 60% of electricity generation in Canada, with growth expected in the coming decades as part of renewable energy transitions; however, frequent cost overruns threaten the viability of this growth. Here, using the integrated assessment model GCAM, we develop an endogenous representation of hydropower for Canada that accounts for market dynamics, thus permitting analysis of hydropower competition with other electricity generation technologies, both with and without cost overruns. Results show that modelling hydropower resources endogenously increases Canadian hydropower deployment relative to an assumption of fixed hydropower production, from 417 to 495 TWh annually by 2050. In scenarios that apply cost overruns at historical levels, hydropower loses market share to more easily scalable technologies like wind power. When including high cost overrun assumptions, the model determines that hydropower falls from about 73% to 65% of Canadian electricity generation by 2050, while wind power increases from about 8% to 11%. Countries may be better able to achieve electrification and renewable energy targets at lower cost by avoiding large-scale, overrun-prone hydropower and nuclear generation projects. Model results support that cost overruns are important considerations for policy decisions related to electricity sector development in Canada and elsewhere.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Korean Power System Challenges and Opportunities, Priorities for Swift and Successful Clean Energy Deployment at Scale

With South Korea’s electricity demand expected to grow 30% by 2035, transitioning to clean energy resources will be critical in reducing the electric sector emissions and achieving national climate goals. Rapid technological improvements can help keep costs low and maintain grid reliability, if Korea’s government takes a coordinated approach to the clean energy transition. This policy brief identifies key barriers to Korea’s shift toward clean energy, based on the authors’ companion report (A Clean Energy Korea by 2035: Transitioning to 80% Carbon-Free Electricity Generation ), interviews with experts, and the most recent data and literature. It then explores policy solutions for overcoming these technological, economic, and institutional barriers, and suggests market transformation strategies to speed the adoption of clean energy technologies. Amid ongoing cost and technological improvements in wind, solar, and energy storage, advancing this report’s recommended policy actions with maximum coordination among government officials can meaningfully accelerate Korea’s clean energy transition.

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Future Electric Power Industry and Grids—Now What Again is Our Destination?

Having a vision that others agree to support and work toward is highly desirable but hard to achieve. We seem to lack a common and shared understanding of the vision—or worse, multiple visions (vivid mental images or documented statements) with varying areas of focus and details: • some appear to be similar but have differing underlying goals and characteristics, or • some reflect differing viewpoints as to effects on various stakeholders. These desirable and undesirable situations apply to realizing visions for enterprise and industry, including the electricity sector. Multiple industry stakeholder groups have developed goals, industry vision statements, and characterizations of the future. The viewpoints are promoted, discussed, refined by their stakeholder group, and often published to promote broad understanding and to inform or influence others. The GridWise Architecture Council asked itself how well-aligned these characterizations of the future are. If these publications collectively set the overall direction for the industry, it is useful to identify their answers to questions such as, where is the electric industry headed, guided by what objectives, and with what role(s) for the customers, electric utilities, and other stakeholders? Are these goals, visions, and future states moving toward a common vision, do they provide value for the stakeholders, and are they likely to meet the objective stated? This paper addresses these questions via an assessment and characterization of a sampling of stakeholder groups’ publicly available vision and future state reports for the electricity industry. Identified electric power grid architectural topic areas needing further work are described, along with GridWise Architecture Council analysis and observation, potential collaborative work efforts, and suggested next steps.

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Factors Impacting Nuclear Energy Share in U.S. Energy Markets

The purpose of this report is to collate information and findings from recent studies conducted by national and international bodies/institutes to identify approaches for maintaining/enhancing the role of nuclear energy in the current and future energy mix of the United States. This report shows how nuclear generation grew quickly to provide 20% of U.S. electricity, sustaining that level for three decades without the benefit of new construction, but is now projected to decline going forward. Nuclear construction costs in the U.S. spiraled out of control, ending construction for two decades and the recent resumption of construction has continued the pattern of schedule delays and cost overruns. However, nuclear operations exhibited strong learning, achieving and sustaining the highest capacity factor of any electricity generation technology and license extensions and uprates have sustained nuclear market share. The share of nuclear energy in the U.S. electricity market is projected to decline by ~1/3rd over the next 30 years The report provides an overview of how the markets work in theory and in practice. It indicates how market deregulation and clean energy policies have created conditions where nuclear plants are being retired for economic rather than technical reasons. The report also shows how many of the markets do not in practice have free competition but instead have outcomes that are being determined more and more by policy instead of market forces. While electricity costs from existing nuclear plants are low, electricity from new builds is projected to be too expensive to be competitive head-to-head with natural gas, even for nth-of-a-kind costs. Wind and solar energy have enjoyed an extended period of sustained subsidy. This protected environment has resulted in a sustained reduction in plant level costs to the point that some of these Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) technologies are becoming competitive even if their direct subsidies are removed. But plant level costs underestimate total VRE costs which include a number of system-level externalities. The incremental system value of additional VRE capacity was shown to decline as market share increases, with solar value declining more quickly than wind. The report closes with examination of a possible future for nuclear generation as part of deep decarbonization of the electricity sector. This approach avoids direct competition with natural gas. The two options for achieving 100% decarbonization are to use only renewables or to use all zero emissions technologies, and the report shows the second approach is much less expensive than the first.

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Measuring Climate and Water Risk across the Bulk Power System

As climate impacts increase and power systems transition to renewables, planners and operators need insights into climate risks to power generation and infrastructure to ensure reliable decision-making in the short and long-term. We present a standardized, consistent mechanism for utilities and system operators to evaluate the climate- and water-related risks of their current and future grid assets. Using a risk-based approach on the combined outcomes of high-fidelity climate drivers together with water and power system models, we examine the temperature and water availability impacts within the contiguous United States to power system assets at the water basin level in three different time periods and report resulting outcomes on lost capacity across different expansion scenarios and climate models. The results indicate that air temperature has the highest effect on derating. Changes in streamflow do not have a large impact on generation capacity at the national level. Electric sector buildout scenarios each have a unique regional risk profile, depending on the technology mix and total capacity, although risks from high temperatures are significant for both traditional and renewable energy generation. Stakeholders can use this approach to monitor effects of generation capacity losses and potential impacts as climate, generation mix, and infrastructure change.

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Mini Guide on Transportation Electrification: State-Level Roles and Collaboration among Public Utility Commissions, State Energy Offices, and Departments of Transportation

About the NCEP Mini Guide Series: The National Council on Electricity Policy (NCEP) is a platform for all state-level electricity decision makers to share and learn from diverse perspectives on the evolving electricity sector. The NCEP mini guide series promotes this dialogue by highlighting examples of successful engagement across its members. Each mini guide features collaborative approaches, lessons learned, and interviews with leading state and local decision makers.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The Evolving Role of Demand Charges in Retail Electricity Rates

Retail electricity demand charges refer to a type of retail rate that is based on a metric of kilowatt (kW) demand rather than kilowatt-hour (kWh) energy usage. Demand charges are widely used in the commercial and industrial (C&I) electricity sectors to recover significant portions of utility revenue and are also used in residential rates in a modest but growing number of locations. This paper explores the historical context of and motivations for demand charges, describes their implementation and impacts in today's context, and uses a variety of opinions collected from relevant parties through semi-structured interviews to inform how demand charges align with four widely accepted rate design principles. This project is funded by the Department of Energy's Office of Electricity, which is interested in conducting research to understand the current state of affairs related to demand charges and how the future U.S. electricity grid will help to define retail rates.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Life Cycle Assessment for Closed-Loop Pumped Hydropower Energy Storage in the United States

The federal government has initiated an aggressive set of policies to achieve a net-zero carbon emission goal for the electricity sector by 2050. As a result, rapid growth in deployment of renewable energy technologies is expected. Most commercially mature technologies are temporally variable and do not provide grid inertia, while renewable technologies with high projected deployment have intermittent generation methods. Energy storage technologies are needed to both dispatch power on-demand and help provide the needed grid inertia. Pumped storage hydro (PSH) is a well-established technology that has gained renewed interest in recent years offering energy-balancing, grid stability, control of electrical network frequency, and large-scale storage capacity. For widespread adoption of PSH, more information is needed regarding its current life cycle environmental impacts. The objective of this study is to perform a full life cycle assessment (LCA) of new closed-loop PSH in the U.S. The functional unit for this study is 1 kWh of electrical power delivered to the grid and the base case project lifetime is 80 years. The life cycle inventory for this project accounts for all material and energy flows associated with the green-field construction, operation, maintenance, and decommissioning of a closed-loop PSH plant in the U.S. Collected data represents a range of potential PSH specifications and geographic locations coming from all prospective closed-loop PSH installations in the U.S. with data available. In addition, existing PSH installations are used to provide assumptions for inventory inputs. Results presented will include the global warming potential (GWP IPCC 100a) and Energy Return on Investment (EROI) from our base case (average PSH installation) as well as from scenario analyses and model sensitivity. These results will be compared to the impacts from existing PSH sites and alternate storage technologies. Methods align with the assumptions and guidelines put in place by previous PSH LCAs to ensure an accurate comparison with the results from this report.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,HYDRO ENERGY↗

Yellowstone National Park Federal Fleet Tiger Team EVSE Site Assessment [Slides]

The U.S. Department of Energy Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP) helps federal agencies reduce petroleum consumption and increase alternative fuel use through its resources for sustainable federal fleets. A key element of this assistance involves supporting agencies in the transition to zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs). Fleet electrification is part of a federal policy to achieve net-zero emissions economy-wide and a carbon pollution-free electricity sector, established through two executive orders (EOs) - EO 14008: Tackling the Climate Crisis at Home and Abroad and EO 14057: Catalyzing America's Clean Energy Industries and Jobs through Federal Sustainability. This site report supports the development of a ZEV deployment plan for Yellowstone National Park, which can ultimately be incorporated into the overall U.S. Department of the Interior ZEV fleet strategy.

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Grand Teton National Park Federal Fleet Tiger Team EVSE Site Assessment

The U.S. Department of Energy Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP) helps federal agencies reduce petroleum consumption and increase alternative fuel use through its resources for sustainable federal fleets. A key element of this assistance involves supporting agencies in the transition to zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs). Fleet electrification is part of a federal policy to achieve net-zero emissions economy-wide and a carbon pollution-free electricity sector, established through two executive orders (EOs) - EO 14008: Tackling the Climate Crisis at Home and Abroad and EO 14057: Catalyzing America's Clean Energy Industries and Jobs through Federal Sustainability. This site report supports the development of a ZEV deployment plan for the Grand Teton National Park (GRTE) that can ultimately be incorporated into the overall Department of the Interior ZEV fleet strategy.

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Golden Gate National Recreation Area Federal Fleet Tiger Team EVSE Site Assessment

The U.S. Department of Energy Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP) helps federal agencies reduce petroleum consumption and increase alternative fuel use through its resources for sustainable federal fleets. A key element of this assistance involves supporting agencies in the transition to zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs). Fleet electrification is part of a federal policy to achieve net-zero emissions economy-wide and a carbon pollution-free electricity sector, established through two executive orders (EOs) - EO 14008: Tackling the Climate Crisis at Home and Abroad and EO 14057: Catalyzing America's Clean Energy Industries and Jobs through Federal Sustainability. This site report supports the development of a ZEV deployment plan for the Golden Gate National Recreation Area, which can ultimately be incorporated into the overall U.S. Department of the Interior ZEV fleet strategy.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Does practice make perfect? Lessons learned from full-scale power system incident response exercise

While threats to the energy sector occur daily, few utilities get the opportunity to fully test out their detection and response mechanisms to advanced threats in the real world. With the high demand for reliability, few grid operators would allow execution of simulated cyber-attacks on their live systems. The DOE-funded Liberty Eclipse project offers a unique opportunity for small and large utilities and coops to practice their combined IT/OT responses to a live red team executing attacks against an isolated power system on an island in New York. Both cyber teams and power operations teams must work together to detect and respond to attacks, even restoring the power system against extreme impacts. Lessons learned from these exercises reveal key takeaways for understanding what a real attack against the electric sector will look like, gaps in execution of the best-laid plans when the pressure of a real event is bearing down, and how organizations can better prepare for advanced attacks by optimizing participation in exercises. This presentation will discuss successes and opportunities for improvement both in how utilities can prepare for and respond to events, as well as how full-scale IT/OT exercises can be coordinated.

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Viability of Additively Manufactured Electrodes for Lithium-Ion Batteries

As the global economy becomes increasingly electrified, the demand for batteries and energy storage is expected to rise significantly, particularly in the transportation and electricity sectors. Lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) are currently the most advanced and widely used technology in this field. Traditionally, LIBs are manufactured using simple 2D planar geometries to maximize production efficiency and minimize costs. However, this approach limits energy density due to the restricted design flexibility of the electrodes. Additive manufacturing (AM) offers a promising solution to enhance the energy density and efficiency of LIBs by enabling the design of architectures that reduce diffusive losses and allow for a greater amount of active material to be incorporated within the same device footprint, thereby minimizing the use of inactive materials. Different AM techniques come with their own set of limitations, including printing speed, material compatibility, and scale, which must be considered when designing electrodes. Scalable and cost-effective methods are particularly important for electric vehicle batteries, while achieving higher energy densities in microbatteries is crucial for the miniaturization of wearable electronics and medical devices. Here, in this study, we simulate various 3D porous electrode designs for LIBs using graphite and nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC) electrodes. These designs are selected to represent structures that could be produced using different AM techniques, such as direct ink writing, fused deposition modeling, and stereolithography. Our results indicate that at higher charging rates and increased areal mass loading, 3D structures can outperform traditional 2D electrodes, although the benefits may diminish with more complex designs that are harder to manufacture. The observed gains in energy density are attributed to improved electrode utilization and reduced diffusive energy losses. This comprehensive analysis of structure–performance relationships will provide valuable insights to guide future research on 3D designs, material selection, and AM techniques for additively manufactured battery electrodes.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

How different power plant types contribute to electric grid reliability, resilience, and vulnerability: a comparative analytical framework

Abstract This work explores the dependability tradeoffs provided by the most common types of central power plants in the United States. Historically, the electricity sector has lacked consensus on how reliability , resilience , and vulnerability differ and how those metrics change depending on the power plant fleet composition. We propose distinct definitions for these metrics and an analytical framework to evaluate power plant fleet dependability. Using data analysis and literature review, we identify fifteen dependability attributes across which we rank eleven power plant types relative to natural gas combined-cycle (NGCC) plants. We use NGCC as the benchmark because it is common to many locations and is of relatively recent vintage. The framework shows that each power plant type has unique dependability benefits and drawbacks. We provide examples of how researchers may use the framework to evaluate grid dependability qualitatively under different scenarios. We find that assuming all attributes that contribute to grid dependability are equally important and additive, electric grid dependability is best supported when power plant fleets include a mixture of power generation technologies. Then, we discuss scenario characteristics that could alter the prioritization and relationships of attributes. We also find that if current capacity installation trends continue to favor low- and zero-carbon power plants, US power grids may benefit from increased resilience and reduced vulnerability at the cost of decreased reliability. We conclude by recommending methods for adapting the framework and quantifying relationships between attributes in individual scenarios.

Ramirez-Meyers, K. (ORCID:0000000291216952)↗

Use Case-Informed Framework for Utility Cloud Migration

This white paper presents a comprehensive methodology for assessing utilities’ cloud postures and frameworks. It aims to produce a roadmap and strategy for a cloud-enabled grid future, providing guidance for integrators, asset owners, and operators. Instead of offering a yes or no answer for cloud implementation, this framework offers strategic guidance on responsibly preparing for and deploying cloud solutions. This paper delves into cloud-service models pertinent to the electric sector, dissecting the shared responsibility model and elucidating what on-premise infrastructure as a service (IaaS), platform as a service (PaaS), and software as a service (SaaS) entail. A pivotal consideration within the context of the shared responsibility model is the allocation of responsibility for foundational security aspects—a decision that will be informed by a comprehensive risk assessment. The ensuing discussion will present a checklist of certifications necessary for a secure cloud transition, equipping utilities with the knowledge to navigate this digital transformation with confidence and with a strategic roadmap. Furthermore, the paper outlines gaps in understanding the U.S. government’s role in shaping technology development and responsible use. Its purpose is to aid decision-making by offering support for risk-informed solutions that benefit those managing assets and operating in the cloud environment. The primary objective is to enhance the resilience and future readiness of a decarbonized electric grid, with cloud solutions as one viable option. The paper synthesizes information on current and future grid architectures and applications, considering both conservative and progressive energy transitions, along with scalable and distributed computing considerations.

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Cybersecurity Center for Secure Evolvable Energy Delivery Systems (SEEDS)

The SEEDS Center has successfully completed its mission to research and develop a plethora of technologies during its six-year timeframe. The Center institutions of the University of Arkansas, the University of Arkansas at Little Rock, Carnegie-Mellon University, Florida International University, Lehigh University, and MIT all worked together with industry partners to define relevant energy sector cybersecurity issues, create projects to address those issues, and execute those projects in roughly two and three-year increments. The short project descriptions below indicate some really keystone areas of research. The teams generally met all of their objectives with only a few exceptions, which is tremendous in an R&D center. In fact, the success of one project led to the creation of a startup company, Bastazo, Inc. that is commercializing the SPARTAN project. In addition to creating new technologies, the Center helped to educate a desperately needed workforce. Lastly, a big success is that the UA seriously followed the mandate of the original program manager to try to become self-sustaining. This effort has resulted in a combined NSF center with the CREDC Center at the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign. To summarize the SEEDS effort, great research was funded, students were educated and put into the workforce, technology is being commercialized and offered to the electric sector, and the research efforts are being sustained through additional funding. The effort was an unqualified success.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

NREL Price Series Developed for the ARPA-E FLECCS Program

The price data for four regions (CAISO, ERCOT, MISO-W, and PJM-W) are developed using the ReEDS to PLEXOS conversion as described in (Gagnon et al. 2020). The reference ReEDS case chosen is based on the 2020 Standard Scenario Mid-case, which uses the 2020 ReEDS model version (Cole et al. 2020; Ho et al. 2021). All ReEDS model inputs use 2020 Standard Scenarios Mid-case assumptions except for CO2 prices, which are implemented as linearly increasing CO2 price trajectories beginning at $0/tCO2 in 2020 and ending at either $100/tCO2 or $150/tCO2 in 2035 to dive capacity expansion towards a low-carbon system that could support CCS deployment. However, these scenarios also prohibit CCS deployment in this time frame so that resulting price data are not influenced by the deployment and operation of CCS itself. Implementing the ReEDS to PLEXOS conversion tool, PLEXOS is then simulated using the 2035 ReEDS infrastructure for both CO2 price scenarios, with the following model version and setup: PLEXOS Version: 8.2 Solver: Xpress-MP 35.01.01 Mixed integer optimization relative gap 1% System configuration: • Total number of nodes: 134 (consistent with ReEDS balancing areas) • Line losses enforced using piecewise linear approximation • Energy dump was enabled Price data is aggregated to the ISO/RTO level using load-weighted averages. References: Cole, Wesley, Sean Corcoran, Nathaniel Gates, Daniel Mai, Trieu, and Paritosh Das. 2020. “2020 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook.” NREL/TP-6A20-77442. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy21osti/77442.pdf. Gagnon, Pieter, Will Frazier, Elaine Hale, and Wesley Cole. 2020. “Cambium Documentation: Version 2020.” NREL/TP-6A20-78239. National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States). https://doi.org/10.2172/1734551. Ho, Jonathan, Jonathon Becker, Maxwell Brown, Patrick Brown, Ilya (ORCID:0000000284917814) Chernyakhovskiy, Stuart Cohen, Wesley (ORCID:000000029194065X) Cole, et al. 2021. “Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) Model Documentation: Version 2020.” NREL/TP-6A20-78195. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. https://doi.org/10.2172/1788425.

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