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At least 127 records · Page 7

HMI Data Driven Magnetohydrodynamic Model Predicted Active Region Photospheric Heating Rates: Their Scale Invariant, Flare Like Power Law Distributions, and Their Possible Association With Flares

There are many flare forecasting models. For an excellent review and comparison of some of them see Barnes et al. (2016). All these models are successful to some degree, but there is a need for better models. We claim the most successful models explicitly or implicitly base their forecasts on various estimates of components of the photospheric current density J, based on observations of the photospheric magnetic field B. However, none of the models we are aware of compute the complete J. We seek to develop a better model based on computing the complete photospheric J. Initial results from this model are presented in this talk. We present a data driven, near photospheric, 3 D, non-force free magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model that computes time series of the total J, and associated resistive heating rate in each pixel at the photosphere in the neutral line regions (NLRs) of 14 active regions (ARs). The model is driven by time series of B measured by the Helioseismic & Magnetic Imager (HMI) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) satellite. Spurious Doppler periods due to SDO orbital motion are filtered out of the time series of B in every AR pixel. Errors in B due to these periods can be significant.

Goodman, Michael L.↗

SIF-based GPP modeling for evergreen forests considering the seasonal variation in maximum photochemical efficiency

Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) has shown great potential in estimating gross primary production (GPP). However, their quantitative relationship is not invariant, which undermines the reliability of empirical SIF-based GPP estimation at fine spatiotemporal scales, especially under extreme conditions. In this study, we developed a parsimonious mechanistic model for SIF-based GPP estimation in evergreen needle forests (ENF) by employing the Mechanistic Light Response framework and Eco-Evolutionary theory to describe the light and dark reactions during photosynthesis, respectively. Specifically, we found that considering the seasonal variation in a key parameter of the MLR framework, the maximum photochemical efficiency of photosystem II (Φ PSIImax ), can avoid the GPP overestimation in winter and early spring due to the relatively low environmental sensitivity of SIF. Compared to the estimates from other benchmark models, our GPP estimates were closer to the 1: 1 line and had higher accuracy (average R 2 = 0.86, RMSE=1.99 μmol m -2 s -1 ) across sites. Furthermore, the changes in the relationship between SIF and J (refers to the electron transport rate) contribute a lot to the dynamic SIF–GPP relationship in this study, while the J–GPP relationship is less variant when the temperature drops. Further, the seasonal variation in the SIF–J relationship, especially the reduction in its slope at low temperatures, is found largely explained by the Φ PSIImax . These results indicate the importance of the uncertainty caused by the variation in the SIF–J relationship for SIF-based GPP estimation, and the consideration of changes in Φ PSIImax under extreme conditions (such as severe winter in this study) is crucial for the improvement of GPP estimation via SIF.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Hybrid data-driven and model-informed online tool wear detection in milling machines

Precision machining tool wear is responsible for low product throughput and quality. Monitoring the tool wear online is vital to prevent degradation in machining quality. However, direct real-time tool wear measurement is not practical. This paper presents residual-based anomaly detection models, combining a hybrid model comprised of a physics-based model and a data-driven model (a decision tree or a neural network) to predict signals of interest (e.g., power or forces) under nominal conditions, followed by Page’s cumulative sum test for detecting tool wear on-line using the computer numerical control machine measurements. The most informative features are ranked using dynamic programming and its approximation variants from real-time measurements and machine settings, such as the width of cut, depth of cut, feed rate and spindle speed, that serve as inputs to the predictive models. The baseline nominal model is incrementally updated with experimental data via a gradient boosted adaptation model to generate the residuals that account for discrepancies between the actual machine data under normal conditions and the baseline nominal model predictions. The hybrid model is validated against 20 Mazak milling machine experimental tests and one Haas run-to-failure experiment. The proposed anomaly detector is applied to synthetic data from simulations of the physics-based model at different operating conditions, measurement noise levels, and tool wear levels, and the methods were able to achieve an overall 92% accuracy in data with 1% noise. The anomaly detection methods based on hybrid model reduced the false alarms of either the data-driven or physical-based models alone, and are found to be capable of good online detection of tool wear.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Design and test of porous-tungsten mercury vaporizers

New design requirements for porous plug-type vaporizers used with Kaufman thrusters and thruster arrays are discussed. The results of testing samples of porous tungsten for mercury flow rate, liquid intrusion pressure level, and mechanical strength are presented. Nitrogen gas was used instead of mercury vapor for approximate calibration. Liquid intrusion pressure levels will require that flight thruster systems with long feedlines have restrictions in the dynamic line during launch.

Kerslake, W. R.↗

Hybrid data-driven and model-informed online tool wear detection in milling machines

Precision machining tool wear is responsible for low product throughput and quality. Monitoring the tool wear online is vital to prevent degradation in machining quality. However, direct real-time tool wear measurement is not practical. This paper presents residual-based anomaly detection models, combining a hybrid model comprised of a physics-based model and a data-driven model (a decision tree or a neural network) to predict signals of interest (e.g., power or forces) under nominal conditions, followed by Page’s cumulative sum test for detecting tool wear on-line using the computer numerical control machine measurements. The most informative features are ranked using dynamic programming and its approximation variants from real-time measurements and machine settings, such as the width of cut, depth of cut, feed rate and spindle speed, that serve as inputs to the predictive models. The baseline nominal model is incrementally updated with experimental data via a gradient boosted adaptation model to generate the residuals that account for discrepancies between the actual machine data under normal conditions and the baseline nominal model predictions. The hybrid model is validated against 20 Mazak milling machine experimental tests and one Haas run-to-failure experiment. The proposed anomaly detector is applied to synthetic data from simulations of the physics-based model at different operating conditions, measurement noise levels, and tool wear levels, and the methods were able to achieve an overall 92% accuracy in data with 1% noise. The anomaly detection methods based on hybrid model reduced the false alarms of either the data-driven or physical-based models alone, and are found to be capable of good online detection of tool wear.

Online anomaly detection↗

Interferometric Radar Observations of Glaciar San Rafael, Chile

Interferometric radar observations of Glaciar San Rafael, Chile, were collected in October 1994 by NASA's Spaceborne Imaging Radar C (SIR-C) at both L- (24cm) and C-band frequency (5.6cm), with vertical transmit and receive polarization. The C-band data did not yield good geophysical products, because the temporal coherence of the signal was significantly reduced after 24h. The L-band data were, however, successfully employed to map the surface topography of the icefield with a 10m uncertainty in height, and measure ice velocity with a precision of 4 mm/d or 1.4 m/a. The corresponding error in strain rates is 0.05/a at a 30 m horizontal spacing. The one-dimensional interferometric velocities were subsequently converted to horizontal displacements by assuming a flow direction and complemented by feature-tracking results near the calving front. The results provide a comprehensive view of the ice-flow dynamics of Glaciar San Rafael. The glacier has a core of rapid flow, 4.5 km in width and 3.5 degrees in average slope,surrounded by slower moving ice, not by rock. Ice velocity is 2.6 m/d or 0.95 km/a near the equilibrium line altitude (1200m), increasing rapidly before the glacier enters the narrower terminal valley, to reach 17.5 m/d or 6.4 km/a at the calving front. Strain rates are dominated by lateral shearing at the glacier margins (0.4-0.7/a), except for the terminal-valley section, where longitudinal strain rates average close to 1/a. This spectacular longitudinal increase in ice velocity in the last few kilometers may be a fundamental feature of tidewater glaciers.

Rignot, Eric↗

Extending the Dynamic Range of Galaxy Outflow Scaling Relations: Massive Compact Galaxies with Extreme Outflows

We investigate galactic winds in the HizEA galaxies, a collection of 46 late-stage galaxy mergers at z = 0.4–0.8, with stellar masses of $\mathrm{log}({M}_{* }/{M}_{\odot })=10.4\mbox{--}11.5$ , star formation rates (SFRs) of 20–500 M ⊙ yr -1 , and ultra-compact (a few 100 pc) central star-forming regions. We measure their gas kinematics using the Mg II λλ 2796,2803 absorption lines in optical spectra from MMT, Magellan, and Keck. We find evidence of outflows in 90% of targets, with maximum outflow velocities of 550–3200 km s -1 . We combine these data with ten samples from the literature to construct scaling relations for outflow velocity versus SFR, star formation surface density (Σ SFR ), M * , and SFR/M * . The HizEA galaxies extend the dynamic range of the scaling relations by a factor of ~2–4 in outflow velocity and an order of magnitude in SFR and Σ SFR . The ensemble scaling relations exhibit strong correlations between outflow velocity, SFR, SFR/R, and Σ SFR , and weaker correlations with M * and SFR/M * . The HizEA galaxies are mild outliers on the SFR and M* scaling relations, but they connect smoothly with more typical star-forming galaxies on plots of outflow velocity versus SFR/R and Σ SFR . These results provide further evidence that the HizEA galaxies' exceptional outflow velocities are a consequence of their extreme star formation conditions rather than hidden black hole activity, and they strengthen previous claims that Σ SFR is one of the most important properties governing the velocities of galactic winds.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Emergence of pseudoresonance in high-intensity resonant inelastic x-ray scattering

We report resonant inelastic x-ray scattering (RIXS) spectra of neon atoms interacting with intense x-ray pulses generated using an x-ray free-electron laser (XFEL). We find that an unexpected peak emerges near the 𝐾⁢𝛼 line of Ne, which does not coincide with any physical resonances of neon ions. We perform theoretical calculations based on a quantum-state-resolved rate-equation approach with x-ray-induced processes including possible resonant excitations. Our dynamics simulations demonstrate that a sequence of multiple resonant photoabsorption events are involved and the interplay of those multiple resonances in combination with the relatively large spectral bandwidth of XFEL radiation leads to the emergent resonance-like structure at a position where no resonances exist. Our finding offers critical guidance for future applications of high-intensity RIXS at XFEL facilities.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Viscoelastic deformation near active plate boundaries

Model deformations near the active plate boundaries of Western North America using space-based geodetic measurements as constraints are discussed. The first six months of this project were spent gaining familarity with space-based measurements, accessing the Crustal Dynamics Data Information Computer, and building time independent deformation models. The initial goal was to see how well the simplest elastic models can reproduce very long base interferometry (VLBI) baseline data. From the Crustal Dynamics Data Information Service, a total of 18 VLBI baselines are available which have been surveyed on four or more occasions. These data were fed into weighted and unweighted inversions to obtain baseline closure rates. Four of the better quality lines are illustrated. The deformation model assumes that the observed baseline rates result from a combination of rigid plate tectonic motions plus a component resulting from elastic strain build up due to a failure of the plate boundary to slip at the full plate tectonic rate. The elastic deformation resulting from the locked plate boundary is meant to portray interseismic strain accumulation. During and shortly after a large interplate earthquake, these strains are largely released, and points near the fault which were previously retarded suddenly catch up to the positions predicted by rigid plate models. Researchers judge the quality of fit by the sum squares of weighted residuals, termed total variance. The observed baseline closures have a total variance of 99 (cm/y)squared. When the RM2 velocities are assumed to model the data, the total variance increases to 154 (cm/y)squared.

Ward, S. N.↗

On the role of the lower hybrid drift instability in substorm dynamics

Recent studies of the lower hybrid drift instability have shed new light on the role of this mode in field-reversed plasmas. For substorm magnetotail conditions it is found that the lower hybrid drift instability can penetrate to the neutral line and can dissipate magnetic energy at a rate of approximately 4 x 10 to the 17th erg/s. Thus this instability is capable of playing a major role in the onset of substorms and providing resistivity for reconnection processes in the context of the neutral line substorm model.

Huba, J. D.↗

Enhanced Elliptic Grid Generation

An enhanced method of elliptic grid generation has been invented. Whereas prior methods require user input of certain grid parameters, this method provides for these parameters to be determined automatically. "Elliptic grid generation" signifies generation of generalized curvilinear coordinate grids through solution of elliptic partial differential equations (PDEs). Usually, such grids are fitted to bounding bodies and used in numerical solution of other PDEs like those of fluid flow, heat flow, and electromagnetics. Such a grid is smooth and has continuous first and second derivatives (and possibly also continuous higher-order derivatives), grid lines are appropriately stretched or clustered, and grid lines are orthogonal or nearly so over most of the grid domain. The source terms in the grid-generating PDEs (hereafter called "defining" PDEs) make it possible for the grid to satisfy requirements for clustering and orthogonality properties in the vicinity of specific surfaces in three dimensions or in the vicinity of specific lines in two dimensions. The grid parameters in question are decay parameters that appear in the source terms of the inhomogeneous defining PDEs. The decay parameters are characteristic lengths in exponential- decay factors that express how the influences of the boundaries decrease with distance from the boundaries. These terms govern the rates at which distance between adjacent grid lines change with distance from nearby boundaries. Heretofore, users have arbitrarily specified decay parameters. However, the characteristic lengths are coupled with the strengths of the source terms, such that arbitrary specification could lead to conflicts among parameter values. Moreover, the manual insertion of decay parameters is cumbersome for static grids and infeasible for dynamically changing grids. In the present method, manual insertion and user specification of decay parameters are neither required nor allowed. Instead, the decay parameters are determined automatically as part of the solution of the defining PDEs. Depending on the shape of the boundary segments and the physical nature of the problem to be solved on the grid, the solution of the defining PDEs may provide for rates of decay to vary along and among the boundary segments and may lend itself to interpretation in terms of one or more physical quantities associated with the problem.

Kaul, Upender K.↗

Some Concepts in Reaction Dynamics

In 1929 London 1 published a very approximate solution of the Schroedinger equation for a system of chemical interest: H3. To the extent that chemistry can be regarded as existing separately from physics, this was a landmark in the history of chemistry, comparable in importance to the landmark in the history of physics marked by the appearance of the Heitler-London equation for H2. The expression for H3, was, of necessity, even less accurate than that for H2, but chemists, like the habitual poor, were accustomed to this sort of misfortune. Together with the physicists they enjoyed the sensation of living in a renaissance. The physicists still could not calculate a great deal that was of interest to them, and the chemists could calculate less, but both could now dream. It would be too easy to say that their dreams were dreams of unlimited computer time. Their dreams were a lot more productive than that. Two years after London published his equation, H. Eyring and M. Polanyi obtained the first numerical energy surface for H3. They infused the London equation with a measure of empiricism to produce an energy surface which, whether or not it was correct in its details, provided a basis for further speculations of an important sort. The existence of a tangible energy surface in 1931 stimulated speculation along two different lines. The following year Pelzer and Wigner used this London-Eyring-Polanyi (LEP) energy surface for a thermodynamic treatment of the reaction rate in H + H2. This important development reached its full flowering a few years later. In these remarks I shall be concerned with another line of development. A second more-or-less distinct category of speculation that began with (and, indeed, in) the 1931 paper has to do with the dynamics of individual reactive encounters under the influence of specified interaction potentials.

Polannyi, John C.↗

Stoichiometrically coupled carbon and nitrogen cycling in the MIcrobial-MIneral Carbon Stabilization model version 1.0 (MIMICS-CN v1.0)

Explicit consideration of microbial physiology in soil biogeochemical models that represent coupled carbon–nitrogen dynamics presents opportunities to deepen understanding of ecosystem responses to environmental change. The MIcrobial-MIneral Carbon Stabilization (MIMICS) model explicitly represents microbial physiology and physicochemical stabilization of soil carbon (C) on regional and global scales. Here we present a new version of MIMICS with coupled C and nitrogen (N) cycling through litter, microbial, and soil organic matter (SOM) pools. The model was parameterized and validated against C and N data from the Long-Term Inter-site Decomposition Experiment Team (LIDET; six litter types, 10 years of observations, and 13 sites across North America). The model simulates C and N losses from litterbags in the LIDET study with reasonable accuracy (C: R 2 =0.63; N: R 2 =0.29), which is comparable with simulations from the DAYCENT model that implicitly represents microbial activity (C: R 2 =0.67; N: R 2 =0.30). Subsequently, we evaluated equilibrium values of stocks (total soil C and N, microbial biomass C and N, inorganic N) and microbial process rates (soil heterotrophic respiration, N mineralization) simulated by MIMICS-CN across the 13 simulated LIDET sites against published observations from other continent-wide datasets. We found that MIMICS-CN produces equilibrium values in line with measured values, showing that the model generates plausible estimates of ecosystem soil biogeochemical dynamics across continental-scale gradients. MIMICS-CN provides a platform for coupling C and N projections in a microbially explicit model, but experiments still need to identify the physiological and stoichiometric characteristics of soil microbes, especially under environmental change scenarios.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Investigation of an electronic image enhancer for radiographs

Radiographs of nuclear and aerospace components were studied with a closed-circuit television system to determine the advantages of electronic enhancement in radiographic nondestructive evaluation. The radiographic images were examined on a television monitor under various degrees of magnification and enhancement. The enhancement was accomplished by generating a video signal whose amplitude is proportional to the rate of change of density. Points, lines, edges, and other density variations that are faintly registered in the original image are rendered in sharp relief. Examples of the applications of this mode of enhancement are discussed together with the system's dynamic response and resolution.

Vary, A.↗

Investigation of an electronic image enhancer for radiographs.

Radiographs of nuclear and aerospace components were studied with a closed-circuit television system to determine the advantages of electronic enhancement in radiographic nondestructive evaluation. The radiographic images were examined on a television monitor under various degrees of magnification and enhancement. The enhancement was accomplished by generating a video signal whose amplitude is proportional to the rate of change of density. Points, lines, edges, and other density variations that are faintly registered in the original image are rendered in sharp relief. Examples of the applications of this mode of enhancement are discussed together with the system's dynamic response and resolution.

Vary, A.↗

Design and test of porous-tungsten mercury vaporizers.

Future use of large size Kaufman thrusters and thruster arrays will impose new design requirements for porous plug type vaporizers. Larger flow rate coupled with smaller pores to prevent liquid intrusion will be desired. This paper presents the results of testing samples of porous tungsten for flow rate, liquid intrusion pressure level, and mechanical strength. Nitrogen gas was used in addition to mercury flow for approximate calibration. Liquid intrusion pressure levels will require that flight thruster systems with long feed lines have some way (a valve) to restrict dynamic line pressures during launch.

Kerslake, W. R.↗

Nonlinear modeling, identification and estimation of slew induced structural deformation

This proposal discusses a new nonlinear, nonparametric method for off-line modeling and on-line estimation of the deformation of a flexible structure undergoing rapid retargeting maneuvers. In these circumstances, the structural stiffness and damping coefficients depend on the angular acceleration omega(dot), the angular rate omega, and the square of the angular rate omega. In the single axis case, the excitation of the structure is represented by the vector u(exp T) = (omega(dot), omega(exp 2), 2(omega)), to which the structural dynamics responds as a 'bilinear' (i.e., parametrically excited) system. A similar technique for multiaxial rotations yields a bilinear model with respect to matrix valued excitations. Three methods of estimation and modeling are described in this proposal to achieve deformation state determination: (1) a method based on a feedback linearized procedure which gives an estimate of the state by means of observers installed in the deformable body; (2) off-line modeling of the deformation state of the structure by means of topological interpolators; and (3) an on-line structural state estimation method based on a combination of the two previous techniques.

Dwyer, Thomas A., III↗

The HEAO-2 Guest Investigator Program: Non-linear growth of instabilities in line-driven stellar winds

The linear instability of line-driven stellar winds to take proper account of the dynamical effect of scattered radiation were analyzed. It is found that: (1) the drag effect of the mean scattered radiation does greatly reduce the contribution of scattering lines to the instability at the very base of the wind, but the instability growth rate associated with such lines rapidly increases as the flow moves outward from the base, reaching more than 50% of the growth rate for pure absorption lines within a stellar radius of the surface, and eventually reaching 80% of that rate at large radii; (2) perturbations in the scattered radiation field may be important for the propagation of wind disturbances, but they have little effect on the wind instability; and (3) the contribution of strongly shadowed lines to the wind instability is often reduced compared to that of unshadowed lines, but their overall effect is not one of damping in the outer parts of the wind. It is concluded that, even when all scattering effects are taken into account, the bulk of the flow in a line-driven stellar wind is still highly unstable.

Rybicki, G. B.↗