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At least 127 records · Page 7

An Evaluation of Size-Resolved Cloud Microphysics Scheme Numerics for Use with Radar Observations. Part I: Collision–Coalescence

This study evaluates some available schemes designed to solve the stochastic collection equation (SCE) for collision–coalescence of hydrometeors using a size-resolved (bin) microphysics approach and documents their numerical properties within the framework of a box model. Comparing three widely used SCE schemes, we find that all converge to almost identical solutions at sufficiently fine mass grids. However, one scheme converges far slower than the other two and shows pronounced numerical diffusion at the large-drop tail of the size distribution. One of the remaining two schemes is recommended on the basis that it is well converged on a relatively coarse mass grid, stable for large time steps, strictly mass conservative, and computationally efficient. To examine the effects of SCE scheme choice on simulating clouds and precipitation, two of the three schemes are compared in large-eddy simulations of a drizzling stratocumulus field. A forward simulator that produces Doppler spectra from the large-eddy simulation results is used to compare the model output directly with radar observations. The scheme with pronounced numerical diffusion predicts excessively large mean Doppler velocities and overly broad and negatively skewed spectra compared with observations, consistent with numerical diffusion demonstrated in the box model. Statistics obtained using the recommended scheme are closer to observations, but notable differences remain, indicating that factors other than SCE scheme accuracy are limiting simulation fidelity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Limitations of Bin and Bulk Microphysics in Reproducing the Observed Spatial Structure of Light Precipitation

Abstract Coarse-gridded atmospheric models often account for subgrid-scale variability by specifying probability distribution functions (PDFs) of process rate inputs such as cloud and rainwater mixing ratios ( q c and q r , respectively). PDF parameters can be obtained from numerous sources: in situ observations, ground- or space-based remote sensing, or fine-scale modeling such as large-eddy simulation (LES). LES is appealing to constrain PDFs because it generates large sample sizes, can simulate a variety of cloud regimes/case studies, and is not subject to the ambiguities of observations. However, despite the appeal of using model output for parameterization development, it has not been demonstrated that LES satisfactorily reproduces the observed spatial structure of microphysical fields. In this study, the structure of observed and modeled microphysical fields are compared by applying bifractal analysis, an approach that quantifies variability across spatial scales, to simulations of a drizzling stratocumulus field that span a range of domain sizes, drop concentrations (a proxy for mesoscale organization), and microphysics schemes (bulk and bin). Simulated q c closely matches observed estimates of bifractal parameters that measure smoothness and intermittency. There are major discrepancies between observed and simulated q r properties, though, with bulk simulated q r consistently displaying the bifractal properties of observed clouds (smooth, minimally intermittent) rather than rain while bin simulations produce q r that is appropriately intermittent but too smooth. These results suggest fundamental limitations of bulk and bin schemes to realistically represent higher-order statistics of the observed rain structure.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Subdiurnal Stratocumulus Cloud Fraction Variability and Sensitivity to Precipitation

This paper presents an analysis of subtropical marine stratocumulus cloud fraction variability using a 30-min and 3° × 3° cloud fraction dataset from 2003 to 2010. Each of the three subtropical marine stratocumulus regions has distinct diurnal characteristics, but the southeast (SE) Pacific and SE Atlantic are more similar to each other than to the northeast (NE) Pacific. Here, the amplitude and season-to-season diurnal cycle variations are larger in the Southern Hemisphere regions than in the NE Pacific. Net overnight changes in cloud fraction on 3° × 3° scales are either positive or neutral >77% of the time in the NE Pacific and >88% of the time in the SE Pacific and SE Atlantic. Cloud fraction often increases to 100% by dawn when cloud fraction at dusk is >30%. In the SE Pacific and SE Atlantic, a typical decrease in cloud area (median ≤ –5.7 × 10 5 km 2 ) during the day is equivalent to 25% or more of the annual-mean cloud deck area. Time series for 3° × 3° areas where cloud fraction was ≥90% sometime overnight and <60% at dawn, such as would result from nocturnal formation of pockets of open cells (POCs), only occur 1.5%, 1.6%, and 3.3% of the time in the SE Pacific, SE Atlantic, and NE Pacific, respectively. Comparison of cloud fraction changes to ship-based radar and satellite-derived precipitation intensity and area measurements shows a lack of sensitivity of cloud fraction to drizzle on time scales of 1–3 h and spatial scales of 100–300 km.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Improvement of Representation of the Cloud-Aerosol Interaction in Large-Scale Models

The main achievements reached under the DOE award DE-SC0006788 are described. It is shown that the plan of the Project is completed. Unique results concerning cloud-aerosol interaction are obtained. It is shown that aerosols affect intensity of hurricanes. The effects of small aerosols on formation of ice in anvils of deep convective clouds are discovered, for the first time the mechanisms of drizzle formation are found and described quantitatively. Mechanisms of formation of warm rain are clarified and the dominating role of adiabatic processes and turbulence are stressed. Important results concerning the effects of sea spray on intensity of clouds and tropical cyclones are obtained. A novel methods of calculation of hail formation has been developed and implemented.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An Evaluation of Size-Resolved Cloud Microphysics Scheme Numerics for use with Radar Observations Part II: Condensation and Evaporation

Accurate numerical modeling of clouds and precipitation is essential for weather forecasting and climate change research. While size-resolved (bin) cloud microphysics models predict particle size distributions without imposing shapes, results are subject to artificial size distribution broadening owing to numerical diffusion associated with various processes. Whereas Part 1 addressed collision-coalescence, here we investigate numerical diffusion that occurs in solving condensation and evaporation. In a parcel model framework, all of the numerical schemes examined converge to one solution of condensation and evaporation as the mass grid is refined, and the advection-based schemes are recommended over the reassigning schemes. Including Eulerian vertical advection in a column limits the convergence to some extent, but that limitation occurs at a sufficiently fine mass grid, and the number of iterations in solving vertical advection should be minimized to reduce numerical diffusion. Insubstantial numerical diffusion in solving condensation can be amplified if collision-coalescence is also active, which in turn can be substantially diminished if turbulence effects on collision are incorporated. Large-eddy simulations of a drizzling stratocumulus field reveal that changes in moments of Doppler spectra obtained using different mass grids are consistent with those obtained from the simplified framework, and that spectral moments obtained using a mass grid designed to effectively reduce numerical diffusion are generally closer to observations. Notable differences between the simulations and observations still exist, and our results suggest a need to consider whether factors other than numerical diffusion in the fundamental process schemes employed can cause such differences.

Cloud microphysics↗

RACORO continental boundary layer cloud investigations. Part I: Case study development and ensemble large-scale forcings

Observation-based modeling case studies of continental boundary layer clouds have been developed to study cloudy boundary layers, aerosol influences upon them, and their representation in cloud- and global-scale models. Three 60-hour case study periods span the temporal evolution of cumulus, stratiform, and drizzling boundary layer cloud systems, representing mixed and transitional states rather than idealized or canonical cases. Based on in-situ measurements from the RACORO field campaign and remote-sensing observations, the cases are designed with a modular configuration to simplify use in large-eddy simulations (LES) and single-column models. Aircraft measurements of aerosol number size distribution are fit to lognormal functions for concise representation in models. Values of the aerosol hygroscopicity parameter, κ, are derived from observations to be ~0.10, which are lower than the 0.3 typical over continents and suggestive of a large aerosol organic fraction. Ensemble large-scale forcing datasets are derived from the ARM variational analysis, ECMWF forecasts, and a multi-scale data assimilation system. The forcings are assessed through comparison of measured bulk atmospheric and cloud properties to those computed in 'trial' large-eddy simulations, where more efficient run times are enabled through modest reductions in grid resolution and domain size compared to the full-sized LES grid. Simulations capture many of the general features observed, but the state-of-the-art forcings were limited at representing details of cloud onset, and tight gradients and high-resolution transients of importance. Methods for improving the initial conditions and forcings are discussed. The cases developed are available to the general modeling community for studying continental boundary clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Precipitation characteristics of CAM5 physics at mesoscale resolution during MC3E and the impact of convective timescale choice

Abstract The physics suite of the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) has recently been implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to explore the behavior of the parameterization suite at high resolution and within the controlled setting of a limited area model. The initial paper documenting this capability characterized the behavior for a northern high‐latitude region. This paper characterizes the precipitation characteristics for continental, midlatitude, springtime conditions during the Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E) over the central United States. This period exhibited a range of convective conditions from those driven strongly by large‐scale synoptic regimes to more locally driven convection. The study focuses on the precipitation behavior at 32 km grid spacing to better anticipate how the physics will behave in a global model when used at similar grid spacing in the coming years. Importantly, one change to the Zhang‐McFarlane deep convective parameterization when implemented in WRF was to make the convective timescale parameter an explicit function of grid spacing. This study examines the sensitivity of the precipitation to the default value of the convective timescale in WRF, which is 600 s for 32 km grid spacing, to the value of 3600 s used for 2° grid spacing in CAM5. For comparison, a 1200 s and an infinite convective timescale are also used. The results show that the 600 s timescale gives the most accurate precipitation amount over the central United States. However, this setting has the worst precipitation diurnal cycle, with the convection too tightly linked to the daytime surface heating. Longer timescales greatly improve the diurnal cycle but result in less precipitation and produce a low bias. An analysis of rain rates shows the accurate precipitation amount with the shorter timescale is assembled from an over abundance of drizzle combined with too few heavy rain events. With longer timescales, one can improve the frequency distribution, particularly for the extreme rain rates. Ultimately, without changing other aspects of the physics, one must decide between accurate diurnal timing and rain amount when choosing an appropriate convective timescale.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

On the unified estimation of turbulence eddy dissipation rate using Doppler cloud radars and lidars: Radar and Lidar Turbulence Estimation

Coincident profiling observations from Doppler lidars and radars are used to estimate the turbulence energy dissipation rate (ε) using three different data sources: (i) Doppler radar velocity (DRV), (ii) Doppler lidar velocity (DLV), and (iii) Doppler radar spectrum width (DRW) measurements. Likewise, the agreement between the derived ε estimates is examined at the cloud base height of stratiform warm clouds. Collocated ε estimates based on power spectra analysis of DRV and DLV measurements show good agreement (correlation coefficient of 0.86 and 0.78 for both cases analyzed here) during both drizzling and nondrizzling conditions. This suggests that unified (below and above cloud base) time-height estimates of ε in cloud-topped boundary layer conditions can be produced. This also suggests that eddy dissipation rate can be estimated throughout the cloud layer without the constraint that clouds need to be nonprecipitating. Eddy dissipation rate estimates based on DRW measurements compare well with the estimates based on Doppler velocity but their performance deteriorates as precipitation size particles are introduced in the radar volume and broaden the DRW values. And, based on this finding, a methodology to estimate the Doppler spectra broadening due to the spread of the drop size distribution is presented. Furthermore, the uncertainties in ε introduced by signal-to-noise conditions, the estimation of the horizontal wind, the selection of the averaging time window, and the presence of precipitation are discussed in detail.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The diurnal cycle of clouds and precipitation at the ARM SGP site: Cloud radar observations and simulations from the multiscale modeling framework

Millimeter Wavelength Cloud Radar (MMCR) data from December 1996 to December 2010, collected at the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program Southern Great Plains (SGP) site, are used to examine the diurnal cycle of hydrometeor occurrence. These data are categorized into clouds (-40 dBZ e ≤ reflectivity < -10 dBZ e ), drizzle and light precipitation (-10 dBZ e ≤ reflectivity < 10 dBZ e ), and heavy precipitation (reflectivity ≥ 10 dBZ e ). The same criteria are implemented for the observation-equivalent reflectivity calculated by feeding outputs from a Multiscale Modeling Framework (MMF) climate model into a radar simulator. The MMF model consists of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model with conventional cloud parameterizations replaced by a cloud-resolving model. We find that a radar simulator combined with the simple reflectivity categories can be an effective approach for evaluating diurnal variations in model hydrometeor occurrence. It is shown that the MMF only marginally captures observed increases in the occurrence of boundary layer clouds after sunrise in spring and autumn and does not capture diurnal changes in boundary layer clouds during the summer. Above the boundary layer, the MMF captures reasonably well diurnal variations in the vertical structure of clouds and light and heavy precipitation in the summer but not in the spring.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Case Study in Low Aerosol Number Concentrations Over the Eastern North Atlantic: Implications for Pristine Conditions in the Remote Marine Boundary Layer

We present a case study (20 September to 13 October 2015) of synergistic, multi-instrument observations of aerosols, clouds, and the marine boundary layer (MBL) at the Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement site centered on a period of exceptionally low (20–50 cm -3 ) surface accumulation mode (0.1–1 μm) aerosol particle number concentrations. We divide the case study into three regimes (high, clean, and ultraclean) based on daily median number concentrations and compare finer resolution (hourly or less) observations between these regimes. The analysis focuses on the possibility of using these ultraclean events to study pristine conditions in the remote MBL, as well as examining evidence for a recently proposed conceptual model for the large-scale depletion of cloud condensation nuclei-sized particles in postfrontal air masses. Relative to the high and clean regimes, the ultraclean regime tends to exhibit significantly fewer particles between 0.1 and 0.4 μm in diameter and a relatively increased prevalence of larger accumulation mode particles. In addition, supermicron particles tend to dominate total scattering in the ultraclean regime, and there is little evidence for absorbing aerosol. These observations are more in-line with a heavily scavenged but natural marine aerosol population and minimal contribution from continental sources such as anthropogenic pollution, biomass burning, or dust. The air masses with the consistently lowest accumulation mode aerosol number concentrations are largely dominated by heavily drizzling clouds with high liquid water path cores, deep decoupled boundary layers, open cellular organization, and notable surface forcing of subcloud turbulence, even at night.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Untangling Dynamical and Microphysical Controls for the Structure of Stratocumulus

Stratocumulus clouds that are an important component of the Earth climate system can exhibit diverse structures, from solid decks to broken cloud fields with strikingly different abilities to reflect solar radiation. Amazingly, these different cloud formations can occur within the same or nearly the same environment, as evident by a common presence of pockets of open cells surrounded by overcast areas. These intriguing features not only provide for spectacular satellite images, but also present a challenge for climate models striving to predict the correct cloud amount. While open cells have been linked to the presence of precipitation and low droplet concentrations, complete understanding of the many complex and interacting processes leading to their formation is lacking. Here we show that the structure of stratocumulus can be linked to two timescales: an updraft timescale, t_up, and a precipitation initiation timescale, t_r. When drizzle is initiated within updrafts (t_r ≤ t_up), cloud water in the outflow is depleted enough that an overcast cloud cannot be sustained. Using a simple parcel model, we relate these timescales to three observable parameters (droplet number concentration, Nc, cloud depth, H, and updraft speed, w) and derive a functional representation for this relationship. Well-documented observed and simulated cases of open and closed cell stratocumulus fit well into the classification based on our model.

climate↗

Coastal-Fog Microphysics Using In-Situ Observations and GOES-R Retrievals

Here, the objective of this work is to evaluate GOES-R based fog conditions occurred during the C-FOG (Toward Improving Coastal Fog Prediction) field campaign. C-FOG is designed to advance understanding of fog formation, development, and dissipation over coastal environments to improve its predictability. The project took place along coastlines and open water environments of Eastern Canada (Nova Scotia, NS and the Island of Newfoundland, NL) during August-October of 2018 where environmental conditions play an important role for late season’s fog formation. During the C-FOG field campaign, instruments were located at the Ferryland Supersite, NL, with 2 main sites, and five satellite sites, as well as on the Research Vessel (R/V) Hugh R. Sharp. Key measurement instruments included a Gondola carrying a CDP (cloud droplet probe) and a BCP (backscatter cloud probe) was used for measuring droplet spectra from 1-75 µm on the R/V. A LPM (laser precipitation monitor) with 100 µm-1 cm size range and an OPC (optical particle counter) with 0.3-17 µm at 16 spectral channels provided information for fog and drizzle discrimination. Remote sensing platforms (e.g. profiling microwave radiometer, PMWR), Ceilometer, Lidar), meteorological towers, tethered balloons, and GOES-R products (e.g. fog coverage and droplet size and liquid water path) were used to evaluate fog over horizontal and vertical dimensions. Results suggest that effective radius, phase, liquid water path, and liquid water content values obtained from GOES-R and PMWR were comparable to ground based in-situ observations. It is concluded that integration of observations and nowcasting products may help improve short term local fog predictions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sea spray aerosol production flux retrieval based on Doppler lidar measurements

Supermicron sea spray aerosols (SSA) play a crucial role in stratocumulus cloud microphysics and drizzle formation. However, our understanding of SSA's spatiotemporal distribution, production mechanisms, and fluxes in the marine boundary layer remains limited. This study introduces a novel approach to determine supermicron SSA production flux and number concentration at various heights above the ocean surface. Our method leverages Doppler lidar data, specifically attenuated backscatter and vertical velocity, collected at a 105 m range gate during the Eastern Pacific Clouds and Aerosols for Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE) at Scripps Pier, La Jolla, California. To focus on nascent SSA, we analyzed data from periods with wind directions between 225° and 315° and wind speeds exceeding 4 m s −1 . Cloud and precipitation events were excluded using relative humidity, backscatter thresholds, and 2D Video Disdrometer observations. Results show that calculated supermicron SSA number concentrations at 105 m ranged from 0.26 to 2.93 cm −3 for surface wind speeds between 4 and 6 ms −1 . When exceeding the method's Limit of Detection, estimated production fluxes ranged from 0.20 to 1.53 cm −2 s −1 . This methodology has potential for application in various oceanic locations, likely enhancing our understanding of SSA's role in atmospheric processes and climate interactions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Roles of Cloud Drop Effective Radius and LWP in Determining Rain Properties in Marine Stratocumulus

Numerical simulations described in previous studies showed that adding cloud condensation nuclei to marine stratocumulus can prevent their breakup from closed into open cells. Additional analyses of the same simulations show that the suppression of rain is well described in terms of cloud drop effective radius (re). Rain is initiated when re near cloud top is around 12-14 um. Cloud water starts to get depleted when column-maximum rain intensity (Rmax) exceeds 0.1 mm h-1. This happens when cloud-top re reaches 14 um. Rmax is mostly less than 0.1 mm h-1 at re<14 um, regardless of the cloud water path, but increases rapidly when re exceeds 14 um. This is in agreement with recent aircraft observations and theoretical observations in convective clouds so that the mechanism is not limited to describing marine stratocumulus. These results support the hypothesis that the onset of significant precipitation is determined by the number of nucleated cloud drops and the height (H) above cloud base within the cloud that is required for cloud drops to reach re of 14 um. In turn, this can explain the conditions for initiation of significant drizzle and opening of closed cells providing the basis for a simple parameterization for GCMs that unifies the representation of both precipitating and non-precipitating clouds as well as the transition between them. Furthermore, satellite global observations of cloud depth (from base to top), and cloud top re can be used to derive and validate this parameterization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Uneven Nature of Daily Precipitation and Its Change

A few days with heavy rain contribute disproportionately to total precipitation, while many days with light drizzle contribute much less. What is not appreciated is just how asymmetric this distribution is in time, and the even more asymmetric nature of trends due to climate change. In this work we diagnose the temporal asymmetry in models and observations. Half of annual precipitation falls in the wettest 12 days each year in the median across observing stations worldwide. Climate models project changes in precipitation that are more uneven than present-day precipitation. In a scenario with high greenhouse-gas emissions, one fifth of the projected increase in rain falls in the wettest 2 days of the year and 70% in the wettest 2 weeks. Adjusting modeled unevenness to match present-day unevenness at stations, half of precipitation increase occurs in the wettest 6 days each year.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The Interaction Between Boundary Layer and Convection Schemes in a WRF Simulation of Post Cold Frontal Clouds Over the ARM East North Atlantic Site

Abstract The correct representation of low‐level midlatitude clouds found in the wake of cold fronts strongly relies on the representation of planetary boundary layer (PBL) and convection processes, which are typically parameterized separately in numerical models. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF), this study investigates how distinct pairs of PBL and convection parameterization schemes represent cloud fraction in the post cold frontal region. The simulations focus on the region of the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Eastern North Atlantic observation site in the Azores Islands in the wake of a cold front that passed on 25 December 2015. Different PBL and convection schemes are combined to create 12 distinct configurations. The main differences between the selected physical parameterizations are the strength of vertical mixing and the entrainment. The simulations produce a wide range of cloud fractions, where some configurations significantly underestimate while others clearly overestimate satellite and surface‐based estimates of cloud fraction. A skill score is used to quantitatively assess the performance of each configuration with respect to ground‐based radar data. The key processes that are found to significantly impact the cloud fraction distribution are the strength of the PBL decoupling, the vertical wind shear, entrainment and detrainment rates in shallow convection, and the occurrence of drizzle. This indicates that to successfully simulate post cold frontal clouds, modeled physics must balance strong internal vertical mixing and weak exchange with the free troposphere. For this case study, cloud fraction was more sensitive to the choice of convection scheme than PBL scheme.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Simulation of Mesoscale Cellular Convection in Marine Stratocumulus: 2. Nondrizzling Conditions

This is the second of two large-eddy simulation studies on the mechanisms of mesoscale cellular organization in drizzling (open cells) and nondrizzling marine stratocumulus (closed cells). This study uses a hard nudging approach which maintains fixed horizontal-mean temperature and humidity profiles for a well-mixed boundary layer with a constant boundary layer depth. For the case studied, closed cells develop and broaden by 32 hr to an aspect ratio of 25. Simulations show that the closed-cell mesoscale cellular convection is driven by positive feedback from cloud-induced mesoscale perturbations of longwave radiative cooling. A conceptual model for closed-cell stratocumulus as a mesoscale wavelength hydrodynamic instability in which mesoscale moist and dry anomalies spontaneously grow is presented. In simulations in which long-wavelength sinusoidal moisture anomalies are initially imposed, these anomalies evolve into amplifying closed cells. The cell structure is visualized with a compositing approach based on sorting grid columns by their mesoscale-smoothed total water path. A thermally direct mesoscale circulation pattern develops in the interior of the boundary layer with buoyant mesoscale updrafts, thicker cloud, and a slightly higher capping inversion in the moister columns. There is a mesoscale flow of above-inversion air down the slightly sloping capping inversion from the moist to the dry regions, reinforced by cloud top radiative cooling. This strengthens the mesoscale anomalies by preferentially cooling and drying the already dry regions. The sloping inversion flow is not driven as efficiently if the radiative cooling is artificially horizontally homogenized, partly disrupting this positive feedback and the resulting closed-cell development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Three‐Moment Representation of Rain in a Bulk Microphysics Model

Abstract A bulk three‐moment representation for rain microphysics is developed and implemented in the Predicted Particle Properties (P3) microphysics scheme. In addition, a new parameterization for rain self‐collection and collisional breakup (RSCB) is presented using a lookup table approach, based on the Spectral‐Bin Model (SBM). To quantify the impacts of sedimentation, evaporation, and RSCB on drop size distributions (DSDs), a rain shaft model is applied to a wide range of atmospheric scenarios (i.e., initial conditions and regimes) and compared against results from the SBM. DSD shapes are mainly determined by both sedimentation and evaporation, except in heavy rain where the impact of RSCB on DSD shape becomes more important than evaporation. The new parameterization for RSCB has a considerable impact on the mean drop size, improving the agreement between P3 and SBM. Only 4% of the original two‐moment rainshaft simulations have mean drop sizes and rain rates within ±20% of the SBM results, but this increases to more than 95% agreement when the three‐moment rain representation is used together with the new parameterization for RSCB. Generally, the improvement is more significant for heavy rain than for light drizzle. Remaining differences between bin and bulk model are attributable to treatments of evaporation, and the restriction to gamma DSDs in P3.

precipitation↗