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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian inference of fine features of the nuclear equation of state from future neutron star radius measurements to 0.1 km accuracy

To more precisely constrain the equation of state (EOS) of supradense neutron-rich nuclear matter, future high-precision x-ray and gravitational wave observatories are proposed to measure the radii of neutron stars (NSs) with an accuracy better than about 0.1 km. However, it remains unclear what particular aspects (other than the stiffness generally spoken of in the literature) of the EOS and to what precision they will be better constrained. In this work, within a Bayesian framework using a metamodel EOS for NSs, we infer the posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) of incompressibility K 0 and skewness J 0 of symmetric nuclear matter (SNM) as well as the slope L, curvature K sym , and skewness J sym characterizing the density dependence of nuclear symmetry energy E sym ⁡(ρ), respectively, from mean values of NS radii consistent with existing observations and an expected accuracy Δ⁢R ranging from about 1.0 to 0.1 km. Here, we found that (1) the Δ⁢R has little effect on inferring the stiffness of SNM at suprasaturation densities, (2) smaller Δ⁢R reveals more accurately not only the PDFs but also pairwise correlations among parameters characterizing high-density E sym ⁡(ρ), (3) a double-peak feature of the PDF(K sym ) corresponding to the strong K sym – J sym and K sym – L anticorrelations is revealed when Δ⁢R is less than about 0.2 km, and the locations of the two peaks are sensitive to the maximum value of J sym reflecting the stiffness of E sym ⁡(ρ) above about 3 times the saturation density ρ 0 of SNM, and (4) the high-precision radius measurement for canonical NSs is more useful than that for massive ones for constraining the EOS of nucleonic matter around (2–3)⁢ρ 0 .

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Reanalysis of Public Galactic Bulge Gravitational Microlensing Events from OGLE-III and -IV

Abstract Modern surveys of gravitational microlensing events have progressed to detecting thousands per year, and surveys are capable of probing Galactic structure, stellar evolution, lens populations, black hole physics, and the nature of dark matter. One of the key avenues for doing this is the microlensing Einstein radius crossing time (t E) distribution. However, systematics in individual light curves as well as oversimplistic modeling can lead to biased results. To address this, we developed a model to simultaneously handle the microlensing parallax due to Earth's motion, systematic instrumental effects, and unlensed stellar variability with a Gaussian process model. We used light curves for nearly 10,000 OGLE-III and -IV Milky Way bulge microlensing events and fit each with our model. We also developed a forward model approach to infer the t E distribution by forward modeling from the data rather than using point estimates from individual events. We find that modeling the variability in the baseline removes a source of significant bias in individual events, and the previous analyses overestimated the number of t E > 100 day events due to their oversimplistic model ignoring parallax effects. We use our fits to identify the hundreds filling a regime in the microlensing parameter space that are 50% pure of black holes. Finally, we have released the largest-ever catalog of Markov Chain Monte Carlo parameter estimates for microlensing events.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Bimodal Diagnostic Cloud Fraction Parameterization. Part I: Motivating Analysis and Scheme Description

Cloud fraction parameterizations are beneficial to regional, convection-permitting numerical weather prediction. For its operational regional midlatitude forecasts, the Met Office uses a diagnostic cloud fraction scheme that relies on a unimodal, symmetric subgrid saturation-departure distribution. This scheme has been shown before to underestimate cloud cover and hence an empirically based bias correction is used operationally to improve performance. This first of a series of two papers proposes a new diagnostic cloud scheme as a more physically based alternative to the operational bias correction. The new cloud scheme identifies entrainment zones associated with strong temperature inversions. Additionally, for model grid boxes located in this entrainment zone, collocated moist and dry Gaussian modes are used to represent the subgrid conditions. The mean and width of the Gaussian modes, inferred from the turbulent characteristics, are then used to diagnose cloud water content and cloud fraction. It is shown that the new scheme diagnoses enhanced cloud cover for a given gridbox mean humidity, similar to the current operational approach. It does so, however, in a physically meaningful way. Using observed aircraft data and ground-based retrievals over the southern Great Plains in the United States, it is shown that the new scheme improves the relation between cloud fraction, relative humidity, and liquid water content. An emergent property of the scheme is its ability to infer skewed and bimodal distributions from the large-scale state that qualitatively compare well against observations. A detailed evaluation and resolution sensitivity study will follow in Part II.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Direct Bayesian inference for fault severity assessment in Digital-Twin-Based fault diagnosis

For applications in condition-based maintenance of nuclear systems, the assessment of fault severity is crucial. In this work, we developed a framework that allows for direct inference of the probability distributions of possible faults in a system. Here, we employed a model-based approach with model residuals generated from analytical redundancy relations provided by physics-based models of the system components. From real-time sensor readings, the values of the model residuals can be calculated, and the posterior probability distributions of the faults can be computed directly using the methods of Bayesian networks. From the posterior distribution of each fault, one can estimate the fault probability based on a chosen threshold and assess the severity of the fault. By eliminating the discretization and simplifications in middle steps, this approach allows us to leverage the available computational resources to provide more accurate fault probability estimates and severity assessments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

The DESI PRObabilistic Value-added Bright Galaxy Survey (PROVABGS) Mock Challenge

The PRObabilistic Value-added Bright Galaxy Survey (PROVABGS) catalog will provide measurements of galaxy properties, such as stellar mass ($M*$), star formation rate (SFR), stellar metallicity (Z), and stellar age ($t_{age}$), for >10 million galaxies of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Bright Galaxy Survey. Full posterior distributions of the galaxy properties will be inferred using state-of-the-art Bayesian spectral energy distribution (SED) modeling of DESI spectroscopy and Legacy Surveys photometry. In this work, we present the SED model, the neural emulator for the model, and the Bayesian inference framework of PROVABGS. Furthermore, we apply the PROVABGS SED modeling on realistic synthetic DESI spectra and photometry, constructed using the L-Galaxies semi-analytic model. We compare the inferred galaxy properties to the true values of the simulation using a hierarchical Bayesian framework to quantify accuracy and precision. Overall, we accurately infer the true $M*$, SFR, Z, and $t_{age}$ of the simulated galaxies. However, the priors on galaxy properties induced by the SED model have a significant impact on the posteriors, which we characterize in detail. This work also demonstrates that a joint analysis of spectra and photometry significantly improves the constraints on galaxy properties over photometry alone and is necessary to mitigate the impact of the priors. With the methodology presented and validated in this work, PROVABGS will maximize information extracted from DESI observations and extend current galaxy studies to new regimes and unlock cutting-edge probabilistic analyses. https://github.com/changhoonhahn/provabgs/

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Computer Vision Pipeline for Image Analysis for Freeze‐Fracture Electron Microscopy: Rosette Cellulose Synthase Complexes Case

In materials science, plant biology, agriculture, and environmental research, the automated analysis of high-magnification, complex microscopy images, such as those generated by freeze-fracture electron microscopy (FF-TEM), remains a critical challenge that limits the scalability of data interpretation. We present a deep learning computer vision pipeline for high-throughput detection and morphological characterization analysis of cellulose synthase complexes (CSCs, or rosettes) in FF-TEM images. The pipeline integrates preprocessing, detection, human-in-the-loop verification, and semantic segmentation to quantify features such as rosette diameter and inter-lobe spacing. The approach was trained and tested on a curated dataset of high-resolution FF-TEM micrographs of Physcomitrium patens, expanded via strategic tiling and augmentation to over 650 images. We compare YOLOv8 and YOLOv9 architectures and demonstrate that YOLOv9 achieves superior performance in both localization accuracy (mAP50-95 = 0.854) and inference speed. The resulting distributions revealed biological variability consistent with prior manual studies, validating the approach for high-throughput applications. Our results show that the pipeline achieves human-expert level accuracy while dramatically reducing analysis time, enabling scalable, reproducible structural characterization of intramembrane protein complexes. The pipeline is broadly applicable to other domains requiring precise interpretation of complex microscopy data and establishes a foundation for future artificial intelligence (AI)-assisted workflows in biological imaging.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modern Monte Carlo methods for efficient uncertainty quantification and propagation: A survey

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) includes the characterization, integration, and propagation of uncertainties that result from stochastic variations and a lack of knowledge or data in the natural world. Monte Carlo (MC) method is a sampling-based approach that has widely used for quantification and propagation of uncertainties. However, the standard MC method is often time-consuming if the simulation-based model is computationally intensive. This article gives an overview of modern MC methods to address the existing challenges of the standard MC in the context of UQ. Specifically, multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) extending the concept of control variates achieves a significant reduction of the computational cost by performing most evaluations with low accuracy and corresponding low cost, and relatively few evaluations at high accuracy and corresponding high cost. Multifidelity Monte Carlo (MFMC) accelerates the convergence of standard Monte Carlo by generalizing the control variates with different models having varying fidelities and varying computational costs. Multimodel Monte Carlo method (MMMC), having a different setting of MLMC and MFMC, aims to address the issue of UQ and propagation when data for characterizing probability distributions are limited. Multimodel inference combined with importance sampling is proposed for quantifying and efficiently propagating the uncertainties resulting from small data sets. All of these three modern MC methods achieve a significant improvement of computational efficiency for probabilistic UQ, particularly uncertainty propagation. Finally, an algorithm summary and the corresponding code implementation are provided for each of the modern MC methods. The extension and application of these methods are discussed in detail.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing approximate modular Bayesian inference by emulating the conditional posterior

In modular Bayesian analyses, complex models are composed of distinct modules, each representing different aspects of the data or prior information. In this context, fully Bayesian approaches can sometimes lead to undesirable feedback between modules, compromising the integrity of the inference. The “cut-distribution” prevents unwanted influence between modules by “cutting” feedback. The direct sampling (DS) algorithm is standard practice for approximating the cut-distribution, but it can be computationally intensive, especially when the number of imputations required is large. An enhanced method is proposed, the Emulating the Conditional Posterior (ECP) algorithm, which leverages emulation to increase the number of imputations. Through numerical experiment it is demonstrated that the ECP algorithm outperforms the traditional DS approach in terms of accuracy and computational efficiency, particularly when resources are constrained. Here, it is also shown how the DS algorithm can be improved using ideas from design of experiments. Some practical recommendations are given for algorithm choice in modular Bayesian analyses.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

O'Hare Airport roadway traffic prediction via data fusion and Gaussian process regression

This study proposes an approach of leveraging information gathered from multiple traffic data sources at different resolutions to obtain approximate inference on the traffic distribution of Chicago's O'Hare Airport area. Specifically, it proposes the ingestion of traffic datasets at different resolutions to build spatiotemporal models for predicting the distribution of traffic volume on the road network. Due to its good adaptability and flexibility for spatiotemporal data, the Gaussian process (GP) regression was employed to provide short-term forecasts using data collected by loop detectors (sensors) and supplemented by telematics data. The GP regression is used to make predictions of the distribution of the proportion of sensor data traffic volume represented by the telematics data for each location of the sensors. Consequently, the fitted GP model can be used to determine the approximate traffic distribution for a testing location outside of the training points. Policymakers in the transportation sector can find the results of this work helpful for making informed decisions relating to current and future transportation conditions in the area.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Joint Bayesian Inference for Near-Surface Explosion Yield and Height-of-Burst

Forensic capabilities to understand chemical and nuclear explosions are greatly aided by an accurate estimate of explosive yield with uncertainty. The relationship between explosive size and geophysical observations of seismic, acoustic, and optical waves can be exploited to provide an estimate of yield. Any near-surface yield estimate is complicated by the surface interaction, so an estimate for the explosion height-of-burst is necessarily included in the relationship. Additionally, the relationship dictates a trade-off between estimates of yield and height-of-burst. Fortunately, the surface interaction for each type of observation is different, which breaks the trade-off, and the inclusion of height-of-burst with multiple data types improves yield estimation. We define simple parametric forward models to relate seismoäcoustoöptic observations from a data set of known explosive yields and height-of-bursts. The parameters of the models and a prediction for the yield and height-of-burst of a new event can then be estimated given new observations via Bayesian inference. We report posterior distribution estimates of the parametric models using a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling technique. These models are then used to predict the yield and height-of-burst of SUGAR, a historical near-surface nuclear explosion, using its reported historical observations. The reported yield of 1.2 ktonne Trinitrotoluene (TNT)-equivalent (Department of Energy, 2015) is within the estimated posterior. Yield uncertainty can be estimated from the spread of the posterior, which is between 0.9 and 2.1 ktonne TNT-equivalent. The posterior for height-of-burst has a wider range between 10 m below and 8 m above ground that includes the true height-of-burst of 1 m.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Generative modeling enables molecular structure retrieval from Coulomb explosion imaging

Capturing the structural changes that molecules undergo during chemical reactions in real space and time is a long-standing dream and an essential prerequisite for understanding and ultimately controlling femtochemistry. A key approach to tackle this challenging task is Coulomb explosion imaging, which benefited decisively from recently emerging high-repetition-rate X-ray free-electron laser sources. With this technique, information on the molecular structure is inferred from the momentum distributions of the ions produced by the rapid Coulomb explosion of molecules. Retrieving molecular structures from these distributions poses a highly non-linear inverse problem that remains unsolved for molecules consisting of more than a few atoms. Here, we address this challenge using a diffusion-based Transformer neural network. We show that the network reconstructs unknown molecular geometries from ion-momentum distributions with a mean absolute error below one Bohr radius, which is half the length of a typical chemical bond.

Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Neural simulation-based inference of the neutron star equation of state directly from telescope spectra

Neutron stars provide a unique opportunity to study strongly interacting matter under extreme density conditions. The intricacies of matter inside neutron stars and their equation of state are not directly visible, but determine bulk properties, such as mass and radius, which affect the star's thermal X-ray emissions. However, the telescope spectra of these emissions are also affected by the stellar distance, hydrogen column, and effective surface temperature, which are not always well-constrained. Uncertainties on these nuisance parameters must be accounted for when making a robust estimation of the equation of state. In this study, we develop a novel methodology that, for the first time, can infer the full posterior distribution of both the equation of state and nuisance parameters directly from telescope observations. This method relies on the use of neural likelihood estimation, in which normalizing flows use samples of simulated telescope data to learn the likelihood of the neutron star spectra as a function of these parameters, coupled with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods to efficiently sample from the corresponding posterior distribution. Our approach surpasses the accuracy of previous methods, improves the interpretability of the results by providing access to the full posterior distribution, and naturally scales to a growing number of neutron star observations expected in the coming years.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Bayesian differential programming for robust systems identification under uncertainty

This paper presents a machine learning framework for Bayesian systems identification from noisy, sparse and irregular observations of nonlinear dynamical systems. The proposed method takes advantage of recent developments in differentiable programming to propagate gradient information through ordinary differential equation solvers and perform Bayesian inference with respect to unknown model parameters using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling. This allows an efficient inference of the posterior distributions over plausible models with quantified uncertainty, while the use of sparsity-promoting priors enables the discovery of interpretable and parsimonious representations for the underlying latent dynamics. A series of numerical studies is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods, including nonlinear oscillators, predator–prey systems and examples from systems biology. Taken together, our findings put forth a flexible and robust workflow for data-driven model discovery under uncertainty. All codes and data accompanying this article are available at https://bit.ly/34FOJMj .

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian Inference for the Seismic Moment Tensor Using Regional Waveforms and Teleseismic- P Polarities with a Data-Derived Distribution of Velocity Models and Source Locations

The largest source of uncertainty in any source inversion is the velocity model used in the transfer function that relates observed ground motion to the seismic moment tensor. However, standard inverse procedure often does not quantify uncertainty in the seismic moment tensor due to error in the Green’s functions from uncertain event location and Earth structure. Here, we incorporate this uncertainty into an estimation of the seismic moment tensor using a data-derived distribution of velocity models based on complementary geophysical data sets, including thickness constraints, velocity profiles, gravity data, surface-wave group velocities, and regional body-wave travel times. The data-derived distribution of velocity models is then used as a prior distribution of Green’s functions for use in Bayesian inference of an unknown seismic moment tensor using regional and teleseismic-P waveforms. The use of multiple data sets is important for gaining resolution to different components of the moment tensor. The combined likelihood is estimated using data-specific error models and the posterior of the seismic moment tensor is estimated and interpreted in terms of the most probable source type.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Application of Sequential Design of Experiments (SDoE) to Large Pilot-Scale Solvent-Based CO2 Capture Process at Technology Centre Mongstad (TCM)

The United States Department of Energy’s Carbon Capture Simulation for Industry Impact (CCSI2) program has developed a framework for sequential design of experiments (SDoE) that aims to maximize knowledge gained from budget- and schedule-limited pilot scale testing. SDoE was applied to the planning and execution of campaigns for testing CO2 capture systems at pilot-scale in order to optimally allocate resources available for the testing. In this methodology, a stochastic process model is developed by quantifying the parametric uncertainty in submodels of interest; for a solvent-based CO2 capture system, these may include physical properties and equipment performance submodels (e.g., mass transfer, interfacial area). This uncertainty is propagated through the full process model, over variable operating conditions, for estimating the resulting uncertainty in key model outputs (e.g., percentage of CO2 capture, solvent regeneration energy requirement). In developing a data collection plan, the predicted output uncertainty is incorporated into an algorithm that seeks simultaneously to select process operating conditions for which the predicted uncertainty is relatively high and to ensure that the entire space of operation is well represented. This test plan is then used to guide operation of the pilot plant at varying steady-state conditions, with resulting process data incorporated into the existing model using Bayesian inference to refine parameter distributions. The updated stochastic model, with reduced parametric uncertainty from data collected, is then used to guide additional data collection, thus the sequential nature of the experimental design. The SDoE process was implemented at the pilot test unit (12 MWe in scale) at Norway’s Technology Centre Mongstad (TCM) in a summer 2018 test campaign with aqueous monoethanolamine (MEA). During the test campaign, the varied operating conditions included the flowrates of circulated solvent, flue gas, and reboiler steam and the CO2 concentration in the flue gas. The process data were used to update probability distributions of mass transfer and interfacial area parameters of a stochastic process model developed by the CCSI2 team. Two iterations of the SDoE process were executed, resulting in the uncertainty in model predicted CO2 capture percentage decreasing by an average of 58.0 ± 4.7% over the full input space of interest. This work demonstrates the potential of the SDoE process for model refinement through reduction in process model parametric uncertainty, and ultimately risk in scale-up, in CO2 capture technology performance.

carbon capture↗
DOE OSTI2023

Constraints on the Cosmic Expansion History from GWTC–3

We use 47 gravitational wave sources from the Third LIGO–Virgo–Kamioka Gravitational Wave Detector Gravitational Wave Transient Catalog (GWTC–3) to estimate the Hubble parameter H(z), including its current value, the Hubble constant H0. Each gravitational wave (GW) signal provides the luminosity distance to the source, and we estimate the corresponding redshift using two methods: the redshifted masses and a galaxy catalog. Using the binary black hole (BBH) redshifted masses, we simultaneously infer the source mass distribution and H(z). The source mass distribution displays a peak around 34 M ⊙ , followed by a drop-off. Assuming this mass scale does not evolve with the redshift results in a H(z) measurement, yielding H 0 = $68$$^{+12}_{–8}$km s –1 Mpc –1 (68% credible interval) when combined with the H 0 measurement from GW170817 and its electromagnetic counterpart. This represents an improvement of 17% with respect to the H 0 estimate from GWTC–1. The second method associates each GW event with its probable host galaxy in the catalog GLADE+, statistically marginalizing over the redshifts of each event's potential hosts. Assuming a fixed BBH population, we estimate a value of H 0 = $68$$^{+8}_{–6}$km s –1 Mpc –1 with the galaxy catalog method, an improvement of 42% with respect to our GWTC–1 result and 20% with respect to recent H 0 studies using GWTC–2 events. However, we show that this result is strongly impacted by assumptions about the BBH source mass distribution; the only event which is not strongly impacted by such assumptions (and is thus informative about H 0 ) is the well-localized event GW190814.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Accelerating astronomical and cosmological inference with preconditioned Monte Carlo

ABSTRACT We introduce preconditioned Monte Carlo (PMC), a novel Monte Carlo method for Bayesian inference that facilitates efficient sampling of probability distributions with non-trivial geometry. PMC utilizes a Normalizing Flow (NF) in order to decorrelate the parameters of the distribution and then proceeds by sampling from the preconditioned target distribution using an adaptive Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) scheme. The results produced by PMC include samples from the posterior distribution and an estimate of the model evidence that can be used for parameter inference and model comparison, respectively. The aforementioned framework has been thoroughly tested in a variety of challenging target distributions achieving state-of-the-art sampling performance. In the cases of primordial feature analysis and gravitational wave inference, PMC is approximately 50 and 25 times faster, respectively, than nested sampling (NS). We found that in higher dimensional applications, the acceleration is even greater. Finally, PMC is directly parallelisable, manifesting linear scaling up to thousands of CPUs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian inference for the seismic moment tensor using regional waveforms and a data-derived distribution of velocity models

The largest source of uncertainty in any source inversion is the velocity model used to construct the transfer function employed in the forward model that relates observed ground motion to the seismic moment tensor. However, standard inverse procedures often does not quantify uncertainty in the seismic moment tensor due to error in the Green’s functions from uncertain event location and Earth structure. We attempt to incorporate this uncertainty into an estimation of the seismic moment tensor using a distribution of velocity models calculated in a prior effort based on different and complementary data sets. The posterior distribution of velocity models is then used to construct Green’s functions for use in Bayesian inference of an unknown seismic moment tensor using regional waveform data. The combined likelihood is estimated using data-specific error models and the posterior of the seismic moment tensor is estimated and can be interpreted in terms of most-probable source-type.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗