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At least 127 records · Page 7

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DOE OSTI2022

Sensitivity and uncertainty of the IFR-1 BISON benchmark

The fuel performance code BISON is being used to evaluate metallic fuel for a new fast-spectrum test reactor called the Versatile Test Reactor, which is being considered for adoption by the US Department of Energy. To quantify the accuracy of BISON predictions, researchers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory have been developing a series of benchmarks based on legacy metallic fuel experiments. As part of this effort, the sensitivity of BISON predictions to variations in model inputs and the uncertainties associated with BISON predictions must be established. This paper summarizes efforts to perform a comprehensive sensitivity analysis (SA) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) on a benchmark based on the IFR-1 experiment.For the SA, at least one input was chosen from every BISON model and physics module used in the benchmark. The inputs were varied individually in a series of BISON simulations. Here, the resulting variations in benchmark predictions were normalized to calculate sensitivities. These sensitivities were then used to inform input selections for the UQ.The UQ was performed using the Monte Carlo UQ method. A literature review was conducted to estimate uncertainty distributions for the selected inputs, and values were sampled randomly from each distribution in a series of BISON simulations. Variations in the benchmark predictions were used to estimate uncertainty distributions and confidence intervals. It was found that nearly 100% of the benchmark predictions matched the corresponding legacy values within the confidence intervals. However, this is at least partially because the confidence intervals associated with benchmark predictions were wide. The uncertainty contributions of assumptions in the benchmark, experimental uncertainties, and BISON models were quantified. Some analysis was performed to identify inputs that contributed to the uncertainties. Finally, recommendations are made for future benchmark and future BISON development.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Sensitivity and Uncertainty of the IFR-1 BISON Benchmark

The fuel performance code BISON is being used to evaluate metallic fuel for a new fast-spectrum test reactor called the Versatile Test Reactor, which is being considered by the US Department of Energy. To quantify the accuracy of BISON predictions, researchers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory have been developing a series of benchmarks based on legacy metallic fuel experiments. As part of this effort, the sensitivity of BISON predictions to variations in model inputs and the uncertainties associated with BISON predictions must be established. This report summarizes efforts to perform a comprehensive sensitivity analysis (SA) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) on a benchmark based on the IFR-1 experiment. For the SA, at least one input was chosen from every BISON model and physics module used in the benchmark. The inputs were varied individually in a series of BISON simulations. The resulting variations in benchmark predictions were normalized to calculate sensitivities. The strongest sensitivities were identified and used to inform input selections for the UQ. The UQ was performed using the Monte Carlo UQ method. A literature review was conducted to estimate uncertainty distributions for the selected inputs, and values were sampled randomly from each distribution in a series of BISON simulations. Variations in the benchmark predictions were used to estimate uncertainty distributions and confidence intervals. It was found that nearly 100% of benchmark predictions matched the corresponding legacy values within the confidence intervals. However, this is at least partially because of the wide confidence intervals associated with the benchmark predictions. The uncertainty contributions of assumptions in the benchmark, experimental uncertainties, and BISON models were quantified. Some analysis was performed to identify inputs that contributed to the uncertainties. Finally, recommendations are made for future benchmark development and future BISON development.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Joint Matrix Completion and Compressed Sensing for State Estimation in Low-observable Distribution System

Limited measurement availability at the distribution grid presents challenges for state estimation and situational awareness. This paper combines the advantages of two sparsity-based state estimation approaches (matrix completion and compressive sensing) that have been proposed recently to address the challenge of unobservability. The proposed approach exploits both the low rank structure and a suitable transform domain representation to leverage the correlation structure of the spatio-temporal data matrix while incorporating the powerflow constraints of the distribution grid. Simulations are carried out on three phase unbalanced IEEE 37 test system to verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach. The performance results reveal - (1) the superiority over traditional matrix completion and (2) very low state estimation errors for high compression ratios representing very low observability.

Dahale, Shweta↗

DOE OSTI2026

Deep Neural Networks are Adaptive to Function Regularity and Data Distribution in Approximation and Estimation

Deep learning has exhibited remarkable results across diverse areas. To understand its success, substantial research has been directed towards its theoretical foundations. Nev- ertheless, the majority of these studies examine how well deep neural networks can model functions with uniform regularities. In this paper, we explore a different angle: how deep neural networks can adapt to varying degrees of smoothness in functions and nonuni- form data distributions across different locations and scales. More precisely, we focus on a broad class of functions defined by nonlinear tree-based approximation methods. This class encompasses a range of function types, such as functions with uniform regularities and discontinuous functions. We develop nonparametric approximation and estimation theories for this class using deep ReLU networks. Our results show that deep neural networks are adaptive to the nonuniform smoothness of functions and nonuniform data distributions at different locations and scales. We apply our results to several function classes, and derive the corresponding approximation and generalization errors. The validity of our results is demonstrated through numerical experiments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Discrepancy quantification between experimental and simulated data of CO 2 adsorption isotherm using hierarchical Bayesian estimation

Here, to quantitatively analyze the inconsistencies commonly observed between experimental and simulated adsorption isotherms, parameter estimation of adsorption isotherm models was conducted by hierarchical Bayesian estimation with parameter uncertainties being quantified as probability distributions. The estimation method was implemented using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to analyze multiple data sets obtained from different sources, including a publicly available database. To describe the discrepancies of experimental and simulated adsorption data, the simulation data was set as the reference to which experimental measurements were compared. We applied the proposed approach to analyze CO 2 adsorption isotherms that are measured and simulated on zeolite 13X and MIL-101(Cr). In these case studies, the discrepancy of CO 2 adsorption isotherm was successfully quantified between experimental measurements and predictions given by molecular simulations using Grand Canonical Monte Carlo (GCMC), where uncertainties were quantified as probability distributions. Furthermore, experimental data sets that agree well with the GCMC simulation have been identified, providing insights into experimental and measurement methods as well as choosing the right assumptions in the molecular simulation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Distributed quantum sensing of multiple phases with fewer photons

Abstract Distributed quantum metrology has drawn intense interest as it outperforms the optimal classical counterparts in estimating multiple distributed parameters. However, most schemes so far have required entangled resources consisting of photon numbers equal to or more than the parameter numbers, which is a fairly demanding requirement as the number of nodes increases. Here, we present a distributed quantum sensing scenario in which quantum-enhanced sensitivity can be achieved with fewer photons than the number of parameters. As an experimental demonstration, using a two-photon entangled state, we estimate four phases distributed 3 km away from the central node, resulting in a 2.2 dB sensitivity enhancement from the standard quantum limit. Our results show that the Heisenberg scaling can be achieved even when using fewer photons than the number of parameters. We believe our scheme will open a pathway to perform large-scale distributed quantum sensing with currently available entangled sources.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2023

Estimating source-sink distributions and fluxes of reactive nitrogen and sulfur within a mixed forest canopy

The vertical source-sink distribution of air pollutants within and above forested canopies is necessary for describing the biological, physical, and chemical processes influencing the soil-vegetation-atmosphere exchange. Here, this study implemented inverse modeling methods to estimate the source-sink and flux profiles of reactive nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) compounds from measurements of the mean concentration profiles of ammonia (NH 3 ), nitric acid (HNO 3 ), sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), and particulate ammonium (NH 4 + ), nitrate (NO 3 − ), and sulfate (SO 4 2− ) at a forest site in the southern Appalachian Mountains. Three inverse approaches utilizing different approximations to scalar transport within the canopy were developed and evaluated against sensible heat flux measurements. The Eulerian model (EUL), which incorporates vertical velocity skewness, performed well in reproducing the turbulent heat fluxes and was subsequently used to calculate the chemical source-sink and flux profiles. Above-canopy fluxes of NH 3 were downward, indicating that the forest was a net sink of NH 3 . The soil/litter layer was both a source and a sink for NH 3 but the exchange rate at the forest floor was small. Fluxes of HNO 3 , SO 2 , NO 3 − , NH 4 + , and SO 4 2- were uni-directional (deposition only) between the air and the canopy/ground and increased monotonically from the forest floor to the canopy top. Crown foliage dominated the uptake of reactive N and S during the growing season, accounting for 80–90% of the total canopy-scale flux. Fluxes and canopy-ground partitioning estimated using the resistance-based Surface Tiled Aerosol and Gas Exchange (STAGE) model were generally comparable to EUL. The comparison highlights the need for improved parameterizations of litter exchange and NH 3 compensation points in resistance models for forest ecosystems. The findings here benefit the application of critical loads in forest ecosystems and guide further development of resistance-based exchange models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Application of machine learning for the estimation of electron energy distribution from optical emission spectra

Abstract This paper discusses the use of probabilistic deep neural networks for the prediction of the electron energy probability function in low-temperature non-thermal plasmas. The neural networks are trained using optical emission spectroscopy and Langmuir probe measurements, with the goal of providing a reliable estimate of the electron energy probability function solely from optical emission data. The performance of both non-Bayesian and Bayesian networks is evaluated. It is found that Bayesian models are preferable as they assign a higher level of uncertainty to their prediction especially when the dataset used to train them is small. This work describes one of the many potential applications of machine learning in plasma science and technology.

Physics↗

DOE OSTI2025

OEDI—Solar Grid Integration Data and Analytics Library

As a part of the Open Energy Data Initiative, this effort aims to develop and demonstrate novel distribution state estimation, control optimization, and transient analysis as well as provide access to data, data integration, and mapping information. More specifically, the focus of the effort will be on physics-based distribution system state estimation, hybrid (physics-based and machine learning) distribution optimal power flow, and event detection/analysis for solar integration and analytics. This work will enable reproducible, robust, replicable, and generalizable R&D in simulation and emulation of solar system integration. These test models and datasets will provide an integrated library for developing and testing power system operation technologies. To make the library user-friendly, this project will provide data curation tools such as data translators, mapping scripts and APIs, database schemas and metadata, interfaces and user dashboard, source code for the reference algorithms, description of the use-cases/scenarios, and comprehensive information on all the assumptions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Ensemble models for circuit topology estimation, fault detection and classification in distribution systems

This paper presents a methodology for simultaneous fault detection, classification, and topology estimation for adaptive protection of distribution systems. The methodology estimates the probability of the occurrence of each one of these events by using a hybrid structure that combines three sub-systems, a convolutional neural network for topology estimation, a fault detection based on predictive residual analysis, and a standard support vector machine with probabilistic output for fault classification. The input to all these sub-systems is the local voltage and current measurements. A convolutional neural network uses these local measurements in the form of sequential data to extract features and estimate the topology conditions. The fault detector is constructed with a Bayesian stage (a multitask Gaussian process) that computes a predictive distribution (assumed to be Gaussian) of the residuals using the input. Since the distribution is known, these residuals can be transformed into a Standard distribution, whose values are then introduced into a one-class support vector machine. The structure allows using a one-class support vector machine without parameter cross-validation, so the fault detector is fully unsupervised. Finally, a support vector machine uses the input to perform the classification of the fault types. All three sub-systems can work in a parallel setup for both performance and computation efficiency. In conclusion, we test all three sub-systems included in the structure on a modified IEEE123 bus system, and we compare and evaluate the results with standard approaches.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

3D hydrogeophysical characterization of managed aquifer recharge basins

Aquifers are increasingly stressed. Managed aquifer recharge provides a potential solution to mitigate this stress and provide sustainable groundwater resources. Subsurface properties are known to have a strong control on the infiltration rates that can be achieved. However, these properties are often highly heterogeneous and difficult to assess with conventional probing techniques. Here, we show the application of 3D geophysical imaging to assess the recharge potential and its variation across several basins used for managed aquifer recharge. We link in-situ measurements of saturated hydraulic conductivity with the electrical resistivity of the subsurface to establish petrophysical relationships and use those relationships to estimate the distribution of hydraulic conductivity throughout the five recharge basins. Our results show a considerable variability in the hydraulic properties, i.e., soil texture and saturated hydraulic conductivity, that have a direct impact on potential infiltration rates. We use the 3D hydraulic property distributions to model groundwater recharge and provide estimates for infiltration rates and volumes, and use this approach to assess the impact of management activities on groundwater recharge performance. Having such data not only enables us to predict infiltration rates, but also provides means for optimizing such water infrastructure.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Voltage Estimation in Low-Voltage Distribution Grids with Distributed Energy Resources

Present distribution grids generally have limited sensing capabilities and are therefore characterized by low observability. Improved observability is a prerequisite for increasing the hosting capacity of distributed energy resources such as solar photovoltaics (PV) in distribution grids. In this context, this paper presents learning-aided low-voltage estimation using untapped but readily available and widely distributed sensors from cable television (CATV) networks. The cable broadband sensors offer timely local voltage magnitude sensing with 5-minute resolution and can provide an order of magnitude more data on the time-varying state of a secondary distribution system than currently deployed utility sensors. The proposed solution incorporates voltage readings from neighboring CATV sensors, taking into account spatio-temporal aspects of the observations, and estimates single-phase voltage magnitudes at all non-monitored low-voltage buses using random forests. The effectiveness of the proposed approach was demonstrated using a multi-phase 1572-bus feeder from the SMART-DS data set for two case studies passive distribution feeder (without PV) and active distribution feeder (with PV). The analysis was conducted on simulated data, and the results show voltage estimates with a high degree of accuracy, even at extremely low percentages of observable nodes.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Considerations for AMI-Based Operations for Distribution Feeders

More than $5 billion in investments in advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) technologies, AMI deployments, as pervasive secondary network voltage monitoring systems, provide opportunities for utility operations and controls. This paper focuses on the considerations for AMI-based tools and techniques as the industry moves toward operationalizing such large data sets. Phase identification is a first such tool. Numerous distribution network analysis, monitoring, and control applications - including volt/volt-ampere reactive control, state estimation, and distribution automation - require accurate phase connectivity information in the system models. The phase connectivity database maintained by utilities is inaccurate because of a significant amount of missing data, restoration activities, and network reconfiguration. Existing phase identification techniques that estimate phase connectivity work well in distribution feeders that have low or no photovoltaic (PV) generation; however, they fail to identify the phases accurately when considerable PV generation is present. This work addresses the phase identification problem in the presence of high PV generation using statistical analysis methods. Further, insights into the AMI data requirements for this application in terms of data window length and resolution are provided using sensitivity analysis performed on an actual distribution feeder model of San Diego Gas & Electric Company. The results of this study show that the phase connectivity, even in the presence of high PV generation, can be accurately identified using statistical analysis of AMI data of 1 day.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

3-D Geological Modeling for Numerical Flow Simulation Studies of Gas Hydrate Reservoirs at the Kuparuk State 7-11-12 Pad in the Prudhoe Bay Unit on the Alaska North Slope

Accurate reservoir evaluation requires reliable three-dimensional (3-D) geological models. Here, this study conducted 3-D geological modeling for numerical flow simulation of the B1 sand gas hydrate reservoir at the Kuparuk State 7-11-12 pad, Prudhoe Bay Unit, Alaska North Slope. The model integrates well logs, core, and seismic data to address spatial heterogeneity in geological structures and reservoir properties. Two modeling types were performed: structural framework modeling and petrophysical property modeling. For structural framework modeling, seismic data and well log markers were used to reproduce subsurface structures characterized by a normal fault system. A volume-based modeling algorithm and stair-stepping grid were applied. The resulting 3-D model comprised 2,640,000 grid cells across 264 layers, including seven fault grids. For petrophysical property modeling, total porosity was initially modeled using sequential Gaussian simulation with collocated cokriging. To reproduce the upward coarsening of the B1 sand, upscaled log-derived total porosity and a three-dimensional (3-D) trend depicting total porosity variation were used as primary and secondary data, respectively. Gas hydrate saturation distribution was modeled similarly, with secondary data from estimated porosity distribution and seismic-derived acoustic impedance map enhancing accuracy. Results indicate higher gas hydrate saturation in the upper part of the B1 sand and areas with higher acoustic impedance. Intrinsic permeability was modeled from the total porosity and clay-bound water volume, and effective permeability was derived from the gas hydrate saturation and intrinsic permeability distributions based on the “Tokyo model”. Effective permeability distributions were influenced by the total porosity, gas hydrate saturation, and intrinsic permeability. Within the same layer, higher gas hydrate saturation leads to decreased effective permeability. In total, 100 sets of multiple scenarios were prepared, providing input data for dynamic flow simulations to evaluate the effects of lateral heterogeneity in reservoir properties and the hydraulic characteristics of faults on production behavior for preassessment before the long-term production test.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Welch Method and Bootstrapping Applied to Subcritical Gamma Noise

We measured the prompt neutron decay constant 𝛼 of the CROCUS zero-power reactor at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Lausanne using cross-power spectral density (CPSD) analysis of gamma-gamma correlations from two trans-stilbene organic scintillators positioned near the reactor core. We measured critical and subcritical states, with water levels ranging from 960 mm (critical) to 800 mm (𝜌=−1.4 $ subcritical). Our analysis used the Welch method, dividing signal segments for fast Fourier transform (FFT) frequency analysis and applying bootstrapping uncertainty quantification that uses Welch-defined segments. Results demonstrated a clear increase in the measured 𝛼 as reactor reactivity decreased, distinguishing critical from subcritical conditions. At the 960-mm critical level, 𝛼 was estimated at 155.9 ± 0.7 s −1 , and for the 800-mm subcritical level, 𝛼 increased significantly to 367.3 ± 6.9 s –1 . A linear regression of subcritical states yielded a critical estimate of 154.0 ± 3.1 s –1 , aligning with the static 𝛼 estimate at critical. The bootstrapping method produced normally distributed 𝛼 estimates, confirming data consistency. The gamma CPSD 𝛼 estimates clearly distinguish reactor states and improve monitoring of zero-power reactors. The future deployment of modular and microreactors as potential candidates for noise analysis is demonstrated in CROCUS, particularly zero-power mock-ups of new designs. The improvement of noise analysis in the subcritical domain from this work will support experimental data for reactor deployment and procedure.

CROCUS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Advanced Semi-Supervised Learning with Uncertainty Estimation for Phase Identification in Distribution Systems

The integration of advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) into power distribution networks generates valuable data for tasks such as phase identification; however, the limited and unreliable availability of labeled data in the form of customer phase connectivity presents challenges. To address this issue, we propose a semi-supervised learning (SSL) framework that effectively leverages labeled and unlabeled data. Our approach incorporates self-training, label spreading, and Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) to enhance phase identification with AMI data. Our method uses an ensemble of multilayer perceptron classifiers in a self-training setup, iteratively adding high-confidence pseudo-labels to improve robustness. We also apply label spread to propagate labels based on data similarity, which enhances generalization across diverse distributions. In addition, we employ a BNNs with uncertainty estimation, boosting confidence in predictions and reducing phase identification errors. In our case study, we achieved approximately 98% +/- 0.08 accuracy with uncertainty using minimal and unreliable labeled data from a real U.S. utility, Duquesne Light Company. Our SSL approach, combined with uncertainty estimation, provides an efficient solution for phase identification in AMI data, ultimately improving the reliability of smart grid applications.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Advanced Semi-Supervised Learning With Uncertainty Estimation for Phase Identification in Distribution Systems

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Scalable/Secure Cooperative Algorithms and Framework for Extremely-high Penetration Solar Integration (SolarExPert) (Final Technical Report)

This SolarExPert project has developed a Sustainable Grid Platform (SGP) with scalable architecture of distributed control and optimization. The SGP consists of the following major functions: 1) an advanced grid architecture with hierarchical and distributed communication and control, combined with the OpenFMB standard and implemented on the Multi-Agent OpenDSS (MA-OpenDSS) platform; 2) an online distributed stochastic optimal power flow; 3) an online distributed system state estimation algorithm; 4) the distributed Volt/VAR optimization and frequency control algorithms; 5) the distributed distribution system restoration strategy. The developed SGP together with advanced functions are tested in 1 million (1M)-node distribution system on the MA-OpenDSS platform. Furthermore, the models and algorithms are tested in 100,000-node system HiL simulation, and also in P-HiL implementation with 100 physical devices. The developed functions haven been validated and tested on the selected actual distribution feeder with the data collected from the field of Maui Meadows in Hawaii. The distributed PV hosting capacities with cooperative Volt/VAR and Volt/VAR/Watt control are estimated and compared to provide recommendations for customers and the utility company.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗