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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Inferred inflow forecast horizons guiding reservoir release decisions across the United States

Abstract. Medium- to long-range forecasts often guide reservoir release decisions to support water management objectives, including mitigating flood and drought risks. While there is a burgeoning field of science targeted at improving forecast products and associated decision support models, data describing how and when forecasts are applied in practice remain undeveloped. This lack of knowledge may prevent hydrological modelers from developing accurate reservoir release schemes for large-scale, distributed hydrology models that are increasingly used to assess the vulnerabilities of large regions to hydrological stress. We address this issue by estimating seasonally varying, regulated inflow forecast horizons used in the operations of more than 300 dams throughout the conterminous United States (CONUS). For each dam, we take actual forward observed inflows (perfect foresight) as a proxy for forecasted flows available to the operator and then identify for each week of the year the forward horizon that best explains the release decisions taken. Resulting “horizon curves” specify for each dam the inferred inflow forecast horizon as a function of the week of the water year. These curves are analyzed for strength of evidence for contribution of medium- to long-range forecasts in decision making. We use random forest classification to estimate that approximately 80 % of large dams and reservoirs in the US (1553±50 out of 1927 dams with at least 10 Mm3 storage capacity) adopt medium- to long-range inflow forecasts to inform release decisions during at least part of the water year. Long-range forecast horizons (more than 6 weeks ahead) are detected in the operations of reservoirs located in high-elevation regions of the western US, where snowpack information likely guides the release. A simulation exercise conducted on four key western US reservoirs indicates that forecast-informed models of reservoir operations may outperform models that neglect the horizon curve – including during flood and drought conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hyperplane decision trees as piecewise linear surrogate models for chemical process design

Recent trends in chemical engineering research point towards an increasing reliance on data-driven modeling approaches. Neural networks, for instance, have proven to be accurate when data is plentiful and high-dimensional, but in many cases, they require computationally-intensive training procedures. Here, in this work, we describe hyperplane decision trees (HT) as a highly expressive and low-compute machine learning model architecture. These models are locally linear and have linear decision boundaries, resulting in a piecewise linear model of the data. This property allows them to be converted into mixed-integer linear constraints which can be globally optimized. Our open-source PyTorch implementation of this method is a fast, flexible, and accessible way to build accurate piecewise linear models of data.

Decision trees↗
DOE OSTI2023

Polarizability Plays a Decisive Role in Modulating Association between Molecular Cations and Anions

Electrostatic interactions involving proteins depend on not only the ionic charges involved but also their chemical identities. Here we examine the origins of incompletely understood differences in the strength of association of different pairs of monovalent molecular ions that are relevant to protein–protein and protein–ligand interactions. Cationic analogues of the basic amino acid side chains are simulated, along with oxyanionic analogues of cation-exchange ligands and acidic amino acids. Experimentally observed association trends with respect to the cations, but not anions, are captured by a nonpolarizable model. An effective continuum correction to account for electronic polarizability can capture both trends better but at the expense of fidelity to the underlying free energy landscape for ion-pair association. Finally, a polarizable model proves decisive in capturing experimentally suggested trends with respect to both cations and anions; critically, the free energy landscape for ion-pair association is itself altered, thus altering configurational sampling.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Decision Support System to Compile Environmental Mitigations from Hydropower Licensing Documents

The process of deciphering, extracting, and compiling information from texts dense with domain-specific terminology and technical jargon is a challenging endeavor. It demands considerable expertise and deep knowledge in the respective field, resulting in a labor-intensive process when executed by humans. Furthermore, the task of identifying multiple class labels in extensive texts presents a challenge due to intra- and inter-reader variability, making the process time-consuming and costly.We’re introducing a user-friendly graphical interface, fortified with a BERT model-powered decision support system. This advanced system aims to augment efficiency, curtail data collection time, and sustain high precision in data acquisition. It is instrumental in deciphering and synthesizing intricate texts teeming with a spectrum of expressions, even within similar mitigation categories. Such tasks traditionally demand substantial human effort and specialized knowledge in the domain.Our system is specifically engineered for the task of extracting environmental mitigation information to promote sustainable hydropower development from licenses issued by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). These license documents are comprehensive, each containing over 15,000 words and requiring the identification of 135 different class labels. We anticipate that our system will boost reading speed, improve the consistency of classification outputs among readers, and contribute to the development of a robust scientific database of environmental mitigations associated with the 2,000+ non-federal hydropower facilities licensed by FERC in the United States.

Yoon, Hong-Jun [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000254505878)↗
DOE OSTI2020

A fast particle-based approach for calibrating a 3-D model of the Antarctic ice sheet

We consider the scientifically challenging and policy-relevant task of understanding the past and projecting the future dynamics of the Antarctic ice sheet. The Antarctic ice sheet has shown a highly nonlinear threshold response to past climate forcings. Triggering such a threshold response through anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions would drive drastic and potentially fast sea level rise with important implications for coastal flood risks. Previous studies have combined information from ice sheet models and observations to calibrate model parameters. These studies have broken important new ground but have either adopted simple ice sheet models or have limited the number of parameters to allow for the use of more complex models. These limitations are largely due to the computational challenges posed by calibration as models become more computationally intensive or when the number of parameters increases. Here, we propose a method to alleviate this problem: a fast sequential Monte Carlo method that takes advantage of the massive parallelization afforded by modern high-performance computing systems. We use simulated examples to demonstrate how our sample-based approach provides accurate approximations to the posterior distributions of the calibrated parameters. The drastic reduction in computational times enables us to provide new insights into important scientific questions, for example, the impact of Pliocene era data and prior parameter information on sea level projections. These studies would be computationally prohibitive with other computational approaches for calibration such as Markov chain Monte Carlo or emulation-based methods. We also find considerable differences in the distributions of sea level projections when we account for a larger number of uncertain parameters. For example, based on the same ice sheet model and data set, the 99th percentile of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in 2300 increases from 6.5 m to 13.1 m when we increase the number of calibrated parameters from three to 11. With previous calibration methods, it would be challenging to go beyond five parameters. Here, this work provides an important next step toward improving the uncertainty quantification of complex, computationally intensive and decision-relevant models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Weakly supervised anomaly detection with event-level variables

We introduce a new topology for weakly supervised anomaly detection searches, diobject plus X. In this topology, one looks for a resonance decaying to two standard model particles produced in association with other anomalous event activity (X). This additional activity is used for classification. We demonstrate how anomaly detection techniques which have been developed for dijet searches focusing on jet substructure anomalies can be applied to event-level anomaly detection in this topology. To robustly capture event-level features of multiparticle kinematics, we employ new physically motivated variables derived from the geometric structure of a collision’s phase space manifold. As a proof of concept, we explore the application of this approach to several benchmark signals in the di-𝜏 and di-𝜇 plus X final states. We demonstrate that our anomaly detection approach can reach discovery-level significances for signals that would be missed in a conventional bump-hunt approach.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Visualization and Decision Making Design Under Uncertainty

Uncertainty is an important aspect to data understanding. Without awareness of the variability, error, or reliability of a dataset, the ability to make decisions on that data is limited. However, practices around uncertainty visualization remain domain-specific, rooted in convention, and in many instances, absent entirely. Part of the reason for this may be a lack of established guidelines for navigating difficult choices of when uncertainty should be added, how to visualize uncertainty, and how to evaluate its effectiveness. Unsurprisingly, the inclusion of uncertainty into visualizations is a major challenge to visualization. As work concerned with uncertainty visualization grows, it has become clear that simple visual additions of uncertainty information to traditional visualization methods do not appropriately convey the meaning of the uncertainty, pose many perceptual challenges, and, in the worst case, can lead a viewer to a completely wrong understanding of the data. These challenges are the driving motivator for this special issue.

data models↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling protected species distributions and habitats to inform siting and management of pioneering ocean industries: A case study for Gulf of Mexico aquaculture

Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) provides a process that uses spatial data and models to evaluate environmental, social, economic, cultural, and management trade-offs when siting (i.e., strategically locating) ocean industries. Aquaculture is the fastest-growing food sector in the world. The United States (U.S.) has substantial opportunity for offshore aquaculture development given the size of its exclusive economic zone, habitat diversity, and variety of candidate species for cultivation. However, promising aquaculture areas overlap many protected species habitats. Aquaculture siting surveys, construction, operations, and decommissioning can alter protected species habitat and behavior. Additionally, aquaculture-associated vessel activity, underwater noise, and physical interactions between protected species and farms can increase the risk of injury and mortality. In 2020, the U.S. Gulf of Mexico was identified as one of the first regions to be evaluated for offshore aquaculture opportunities as directed by a Presidential Executive Order. We developed a transparent and repeatable method to identify aquaculture opportunity areas (AOAs) with the least conflict with protected species. First, we developed a generalized scoring approach for protected species that captures their vulnerability to adverse effects from anthropogenic activities using conservation status and demographic information. Next, we applied this approach to data layers for eight species listed under the Endangered Species Act, including five species of sea turtles, Rice’s whale, smalltooth sawfish, and giant manta ray. Next, we evaluated four methods for mathematically combining scores (i.e., Arithmetic mean, Geometric mean, Product, Lowest Scoring layer) to generate a combined protected species data layer. The Product approach provided the most logical ordering of, and the greatest contrast in, site suitability scores. Finally, we integrated the combined protected species data layer into a multi-criteria decision-making modeling framework for MSP. This process identified AOAs with reduced potential for protected species conflict. These modeling methods are transferable to other regions, to other sensitive or protected species, and for spatial planning for other ocean-uses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Toward a standardization of cryostructure and cryogenic soil structure terminology for the field description of permafrost‐affected soils

This paper establishes standardized terminology and field documentation protocols for cryostructures and cryogenic soil structures in permafrost‐affected soils and provides brief guidance on descriptions of ground ice morphology and ice volume estimates. We consolidate permafrost terminology from Russian and North American literature, clarify long‐standing ambiguities, and provide explicit guidelines that align with US Department of Agriculture‐Natural Resources Conservation Service soil description standards. Our scheme makes critical distinctions between cryostructure, the distribution of ice within soil, and cryogenic soil structure, the morphological structure of soil resulting from ice formation. The scheme organizes cryostructures into three main categories: non‐segregated ice, visible segregated ice, and ice matrices. We introduce standardized codes and parameters for field descriptions of ice and soil that enable machine‐readable data collection compatible with existing soil information systems. This standardization will significantly enhance the integration of field observations into landscape‐scale assessments of permafrost stability, infrastructure vulnerability, and ecosystem response to permafrost thaw, addressing an urgent need for quantitative data to inform modeling and decision‐making in rapidly changing Arctic and subarctic environments.

Andersen, Megan L. [University of Minnesota, Saint↗
DOE OSTI2024

Understanding drivers of oil and gas well integrity issues in the greater wattenberg area of Colorado

Well integrity is critically important to maintain to minimize the environmental impacts of oil and gas development and other subsurface energy operations. The Wattenberg Field of Colorado—a top producing field with >40,000 wells—has one of the most robust publicly reported well integrity programs in the country. Here, in this study, we analyzed annular pressure and annular-fluid geochemical test results collected from Wattenberg wells through the end of 2019 to characterize the frequency and spatial variability of integrity issues in the field and understand their drivers. Estimated frequencies of integrity issues among tested wells were 8.2-17.1% between 1955 and 2019 and 6.1-11.4% in 2019 alone. The frequency of integrity issues was nearly four times greater in wells located above the Longmont Wrench Fault Zone. Potential drivers of integrity issues were identified using ensemble decision tree models trained with a broad set of relevant information. Models show that well integrity issues are spatially clustered on regional and sub-regional scales and suggest the relatively high frequency of integrity issues observed is likely attributed to geologic factors. These findings are valuable for regulatory agencies and operators seeking to inform well integrity monitoring, plugging, and emissions reduction efforts and design future subsurface energy projects.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty quantification and reliability assessment for intermodal freight transportation

Intermodal freight optimization models support cost-effective, low-emission, and timely goods movement by coordinating trucks, rail, and barges. These models determine optimal flows, routing, and modal switches while respecting infrastructure and operational constraints. However, their real-world utility is often undermined by pervasive uncertainties-such as fluctuating transportation costs and emissions, variable terminal capacities, and uncertain freight demand-that distort key performance outcomes, including total system cost, carbon footprint, and transit time reliability. This study presents a structured framework for quantifying uncertainty in intermodal freight transportation (IFT) optimization. The framework evaluates how input uncertainty affects system performance and reliability, a critical need for ensuring that model-based decisions remain robust under real-world variability, especially amid volatile fuel prices, shifting demand, and growing disruptions. It integrates three complementary methods: (1) Sobol-based global sensitivity analysis to identify influential parameters affecting cost, emissions, and transit time, (2) Monte Carlo-based capacity perturbation analysis to assess robustness under probabilistic facility disruptions, and (3) Monte Carlo filtering with Bayesian inference to detect threshold-based performance vulnerabilities. The results highlight diesel truck unit cost as the dominant driver of variability. To improve system resilience, planners should prioritize uncertainty in fuel-related parameters when designing intermodal strategies.

Intermodal freight transportation↗
DOE OSTI2024

Next-Generation Reverse Logistics Networks of Photovoltaic Recycling: Perspectives and Challenges

With the growing adoption of solar energy as a key component of the global energy transition and its new industrial policy (the Inflation Reduction Act and others), the United States is witnessing a significant increase in solar investments. This surge in installations and domestic and reshored manufacturing of solar photovoltaic (PV) panels brings with it a pressing issue: the proper management of end-of-life (EoL) PV panels. As these panels are decommissioned, either due to reaching the end of their lifespans or due to breakage across the various stages of the forward supply chain, it becomes crucial to establish efficient reverse supply chain logistics systems to address the challenges associated with their disposal, while also unlocking the value of the inherent materials that are of critical value for other forward supply chains. This perspective article examines the challenges regarding EoL PV panels and relevant reverse supply chain and logistics networks, and proposes future research directions based on the gaps observed among academic research, industry, and policy-making challenges. We identify the main bottlenecks and hurdles including, among others, the lack of supportive regulations and absence of structured, optimized recycling infrastructure. To this end, it is proposed that the key to achieving a sustainable reverse supply chain network for solar PV panels lies in relentless end-to-end supply chain cost optimization efforts supported by enabling policies. Moreover, it is proposed that designing systematic decision-making modeling frameworks is vital for examining different possibilities and scenarios for state, region or nation-wide optimization of solar PV reverse supply chain networks. Indicative to this effect, we discuss the development of a Resource-Task-Network (RTN)-based model and demonstrate its application and benefits through a case study. We wrap up with conclusions and future research directions.

circular economy↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mapping Glacier Basal Sliding Applying Machine Learning

During the RESOLVE project (“High-resolution imaging in subsurface geophysics: development of a multi-instrument platform for interdisciplinary research”), continuous surface displacement and seismic array observations were obtained on Glacier d’Argentière in the French Alps for 35 days in May 2018. The data set is used to perform a detailed study of targeted processes within the highly dynamic cryospheric environment. In particular, the physical processes controlling glacial basal motion are poorly understood and remain challenging to observe directly. Especially in the Alpine region for temperate based glaciers where the ice rapidly responds to changing climatic conditions and thus, processes are strongly intermittent in time and heterogeneous in space. Spatially dense seismic and Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements are analyzed applying machine learning to gain insight into the processes controlling glacial motions of Glacier d’Argentière. Using multiple bandpass-filtered copies of the continuous seismic waveforms, we compute energy-based features, develop a matched field beamforming catalog and include meteorological observations. Features describing the data are analyzed with a gradient boosting decision tree model to directly estimate the GPS displacements from the seismic noise. We posit that features of the seismic noise provide direct access to the dominant parameters that drive displacement on the highly variable and unsteady surface of the glacier. The machine learning model infers daily fluctuations and longer term trends. The results show on-ice displacement rates are strongly modulated by activity at the base of the glacier. The techniques presented provide a new approach to study glacial basal sliding and discover its full complexity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Detecting damaged buildings using real-time crowdsourced images and transfer learning

After significant earthquakes, we can see images posted on social media platforms by individuals and media agencies owing to the mass usage of smartphones these days. These images can be utilized to provide information about the shaking damage in the earthquake region both to the public and research community, and potentially to guide rescue work. This paper presents an automated way to extract the damaged buildings images after earthquakes from social media platforms such as Twitter and thus identify the particular user posts containing such images. Using transfer learning and ~ 6500 manually labelled images, we trained a deep learning model to recognize images with damaged buildings in the scene. The trained model achieved good performance when tested on newly acquired images of earthquakes at different locations and when ran in near real-time on Twitter feed after the 2020 M7.0 earthquake in Turkey. Furthermore, to better understand how the model makes decisions, we also implemented the Grad-CAM method to visualize the important regions on the images that facilitate the decision.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Coffee supply chain planning under climate change

The growing demand but uncertain supply makes the sustainability of the coffee industry a shared concern for all participants along the coffee supply chain. This study proposed a decision-making model that comprises the cultivation management, including shade management and annual agriculture management, and the supply chain logistics. A two-stage stochastic program is presented and used within a rolling horizon scheme that periodically updates input data information to deal with uncertainty associated with future climate scenarios. The program minimizes the total expected cost of the entire supply chain of arabica coffee. The study applied the model to the real case study of arabica coffee bean supply to the U.S. market, trying to answer whether arabica coffee supply can meet the U.S. demand from 2022 to 2050 and how to best mitigate any shortage through corporate-farmer partnerships. The results show that the coffee supply will have a 3% shortage in the future; medium-level shade management and more irrigation and fertilization are possible mitigation strategies. These results demonstrate the need for all participants to adopt suitable technologies for the sustainability of global coffee supply chains together.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Publishing Environmental Assessment and Management Science: Crossing the Hurdles

Benefits accrue to scientists, resource managers, companies, and policymakers when environmental scientists publish in peer-reviewed journals. However, environmental scientists and practitioners face challenges, including the sometimes low value placed on journal articles, institutional vested interests in outcomes, and the changing priorities of employers and project sponsors. Confidentiality agreements can also lead scientists to assume publication is not an option. Case studies may be viewed by potential authors as too routine for peer-reviewed journals. On the basis of 30 years of experience, we suggest that publishing hurdles can be overcome and that environmental scientists have a range of options. The topics of manuscripts can include not only results from case studies and perspectives based on them but also byproducts of assessments, including definitions, plans, monitoring methods and models, and decision frameworks. Environmental scientists have unique opportunities to move science forward with their practical knowledge if they can move across the institutional, logistical, data-related, and content-related hurdles.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Interpretable boosted-decision-tree analysis for the Majorana Demonstrator

The Majorana Demonstrator is a leading experiment searching for neutrinoless double-beta decay with high purity germanium detectors (HPGe). Machine learning provides a new way to maximize the amount of information provided by these detectors, but the data-driven nature makes it less interpretable compared to traditional analysis. An interpretability study reveals the machine's decision-making logic, allowing us to learn from the machine to feedback to the traditional analysis. In this work, we have presented the first machine learning analysis of the data from the Majorana Demonstrator; this is also the first interpretable machine learning analysis of any germanium detector experiment. Two gradient boosted decision tree models are trained to learn from the data, and a game-theory-based model interpretability study is conducted to understand the origin of the classification power. By learning from data, this analysis recognizes the correlations among reconstruction parameters to further enhance the background rejection performance. By learning from the machine, this analysis reveals the importance of new background categories to reciprocally benefit the standard Majorana analysis. This model is highly compatible with next-generation germanium detector experiments like LEGEND since it can be simultaneously trained on a large number of detectors.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Two-Stage Quantum Reinforcement Learning Method for Multi-Objective Transmission Switching

Multi-objective transmission switching (MO-TS) problems involve the strategic reconfiguration of network topology to simultaneously optimize multiple objectives. As the system scale increases, finding feasible solutions becomes increasingly challenging due to the problem's nonlinearity and high computational complexity. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a two-stage quantum reinforcement learning method that leverages potential quantum advantages for MO-TS. In the first stage, candidate switching lines are identified using a graph-theoretical approach to reduce the problem's dimensionality. The second stage introduces a quantum-classical reinforcement learning framework, where a learnable measurement-based CNN-ResVQC architecture is developed to effectively reduce the input dimension for quantum processing, mitigate vanishing gradients, and enhance trainability while improving the quantum circuit's flexibility in modeling complex decision policies for MO-TS. Numerical studies on IEEE 14-bus, 57-bus, and 118-bus systems demonstrate that the proposed algorithm achieves superior training stability and faster convergence with approximately 1% of the network parameters required by classical algorithms, highlighting its effectiveness, efficiency, and scalability. Furthermore, the practicality is validated through its stable convergence under three common quantum noise channels.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗