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At least 127 records · Page 7

An Inventory of AI-ready Benchmark Data for US Fires, Heatwaves, and Droughts

Extreme weather events, including fires, heatwaves, and droughts, have significant impacts on earth, environmental, and energy systems. Mechanistic and predictive understanding, as well as probabilistic risk assessment of these extreme weather events, are crucial for detecting, planning for, and responding to these extremes. Records of extreme weather events provide an important data source for understanding present and future extremes, but the existing data needs preprocessing before it can be used for analysis. Moreover, there are many nonstandard metrics defining the levels of severity or impacts of extremes. In this study, we compile a comprehensive benchmark data inventory of extreme weather events, including fires, heatwaves, and droughts. The dataset covers the period from 2001 to 2020 with a daily temporal resolution and a spatial resolution of 0.5°×0.5° (~55km×55km) over the continental United States (CONUS), and a spatial resolution of 1km × 1km over the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region, together with the co-located and relevant meteorological variables. By exploring and summarizing the spatial and temporal patterns of these extremes in various forms of marginal, conditional, and joint probability distributions, we gain a better understanding of the characteristics of climate extremes. The resulting AI/ML-ready data products can be readily applied to ML-based research, fostering and encouraging AI/ML research in the field of extreme weather. This study can contribute significantly to the advancement of extreme weather research, aiding researchers, policymakers, and practitioners in developing improved preparedness and response strategies to protect communities and ecosystems from the adverse impacts of extreme weather events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An Inventory of AI-ready Benchmark Data for US Fires, Heatwaves, and Droughts

Extreme weather events, including fires, heatwaves, and droughts, have significant impacts on earth, environmental, and energy systems. Mechanistic and predictive understanding, as well as probabilistic risk assessment of these extreme weather events, are crucial for detecting, planning for, and responding to these extremes. Records of extreme weather events provide an important data source for understanding present and future extremes, but the existing data needs preprocessing before it can be used for analysis. Moreover, there are many nonstandard metrics defining the levels of severity or impacts of extremes. In this study, we compile a comprehensive benchmark data inventory of extreme weather events, including fires, heatwaves, and droughts. The dataset covers the period from 2001 to 2020 with a daily temporal resolution and a spatial resolution of 0.5°×0.5° (~55km×55km) over the continental United States (CONUS), and a spatial resolution of 1km × 1km over the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region, together with the co-located and relevant meteorological variables. By exploring and summarizing the spatial and temporal patterns of these extremes in various forms of marginal, conditional, and joint probability distributions, we gain a better understanding of the characteristics of climate extremes. The resulting AI/ML-ready data products can be readily applied to ML-based research, fostering and encouraging AI/ML research in the field of extreme weather. This study can contribute significantly to the advancement of extreme weather research, aiding researchers, policymakers, and practitioners in developing improved preparedness and response strategies to protect communities and ecosystems from the adverse impacts of extreme weather events. Usage Notes We presented a long term (2001-2020) and comprehensive data inventory of historical extreme events with daily temporal resolution covering the separate spatial extents of CONUS (0.5°×0.5°) and PNW(1km×1km) for various applications and studies. The dataset with 0.5°×0.5° resolution for CONUS can be used to help build more accurate climate models for the entire CONUS, which can help in understanding long-term climate trends, including changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events, predicting future extreme events as well as understanding the implications of extreme events on society and the environment. The data can also be applied for risk accessment of the extremes. For example, ML/AI models can be developed to predict wildfire risk or forecast HWs by analyzing historical weather data, and past fires or heateave , allowing for early warnings and risk mitigation strategies. Using this dataset, AI-driven risk assessment models can also be built to identify vulnerable energy and utilities infrastructure, imrpove grid resilience and suggest adaptations to withstand extreme weather events. The high-resolution 1km×1km dataset ove PNW are advantageous for real-time, localized and detailed applications. It can enhance the accuracy of early warning systems for extreme weather events, helping authorities and communities prepare for and respond to disasters more effectively. For example, ML models can be developed to provide localized HW predictions for specific neighborhoods or cities, enabling residents and local emergency services to take targeted actions; the assessment of drought severity in specific communities or watersheds within the PNW can help local authorities manage water resources more effectively.

Lin, Xinming↗

BISON fuel performance modeling optimization for experiment X447 and X447A using axial swelling and cladding strain measurements

With the recent need to qualify new reactor designs such as the Versatile Test Reactor (VTR), fuel performance calculations need to be performed to determine safety criteria of the proposed designs. In order to validate the fuel performance results obtained by a fuel performance code, BISON, for new reactor designs, legacy fuel from EBR-II and FFTF MFF with Post -Irradiation Examination (PIE) data need to be used as validation cases to benchmark models. Here in this work, BISON has been paired with the Fuels Irradiation & Physics Database (FIPD) and IFR Materials Information System (IMIS) to supply PIE data for comparison with simulations of EBR-II experiments X447/X447A. X447/X447A were assessed by implementing models for Fuel Cladding Chemical Interaction (FCCI) within BISON and optimizing the friction coefficient between the fuel surface and the cladding, the anisotropic swelling factor, and the HT9 first thermal creep scalar (which scales the first term in the HT9 creep equation) to best match the PIE axial fuel swelling height and cladding profilometry for all pins in X447/X447A. The optimal values were found using a generic algorithm developed to select different values for the three parameters until end criteria was met and error couldn’t be reduced further. The BISON-simulated cladding profilometry was evaluated using Standard Error of the Estimate (SEE) to account for the profile shape of the cladding profilometry. Optimal values for the friction coefficient, anisotropic fuel swelling factor, and HT9 first thermal creep scalar were found to best fit the BISON simulation results to the PIE measurements found in IMIS and FIPD. Improvements to current models are suggested to account for the underprediction of fuel swelling at low burnups and the overprediction of fuel swelling at higher burnups observed for the axial fuel swelling height. Although two pins in EBR-II X447/X447A (DP70 and DP75) were known to fail due to FCCI, none of the pins simulated in BISON reached a cumulative damage fraction (CDF) above 0.008 with FCCI correlations coupled in the BISON simulations. The error estimate generated for all pins in X447/X447A using optimal values was 209 µm, which is deemed acceptable.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Oscilloscope Data Push Program

Data acquisition (DAQ) is a complex and costly process. Creating DAQ systems for analyzing a system requires expensive electronics and a dedicated team of engineers for support, posing a challenge for users who readily need data. This project is a proof of concept to create a temporary or one-off DAQ system using equipment commonly available to every team. We aim to automate the data acquisition process from the Rohde \& Schwarz RTO 1044 oscilloscope, convert the acquired binary data into floating point values, and store the results in a CSV file format. By developing a Python program to handle these tasks, we seek to reduce the manual effort involved in data collection, significantly increasing efficiency.

Osei-Tutu, Jason↗

Ripening of Rh Nanoparticle Catalysts in Reverse Water–Gas Shift via a Data-Driven Model Combining Physics, Theory, and Experiment

Degradation via sintering is an ongoing challenge that impedes the broad commercial success of supported metallic nanoparticle catalysts. To mitigate degradation via informed catalyst design and process operations, here we aim to disambiguate the underlying mechanisms of sintering by combining theory and experiment in a quantitative framework. While mechanistic sintering models exist, they only model a single sintering pathway, even though multiple sintering mechanisms can occur simultaneously or dominate at different stages of the process. Data-driven machine learning models have emerged as a means to represent complex processes through data regression. However, machine learning models have very large data needs and lack mechanistic insights due to their black-box encoding. To develop an interpretive model of catalyst degradation via sintering, we constructed a hybrid model combining mechanistic “physics-based” models and data-driven methods to obtain both reliable predictions and mechanistic insights regarding experimentally observed sintering phenomena. Focusing on nanoparticle sintering in the Rh–TiO 2 catalyst for the reverse water–gas shift (RWGS) reaction, the hybrid model couples a mechanistic term for Ostwald ripening with energy values calculated via density functional theory (DFT) with a parametric, data-driven discrepancy function term for unmodeled mechanisms. The hybrid model is trained using Bayesian inference with data collected from small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) in situ experiments wherein average nanoparticle diameter versus time was measured at three relevant operating temperatures. The calibrated hybrid model results show that an Ostwald ripening-only model parameterized with fixed DFT energies does not fully capture the time and temperature dependence of the SAXS-observed sintering kinetics, and that an additional functional contribution, or DFT energy calibration, is required to reconcile simulation and experiment. Analysis of the hybrid-model error confirms that the hybrid model outperforms both the purely mechanistic and purely data-driven alternatives in terms of expected predictive accuracy for time-evolving average particle sizes. Furthermore, the results support the hypothesis that the Ostwald ripening mechanism is less important for explaining the sintering phenomena as operating temperature increases under an assumed fixed DFT parameterization. This could be explained in one of two ways: either latent, unmodeled sintering mechanisms dominate at higher temperatures, or the DFT uncertainty increases with temperature. The proposed modeling approach directly links theory to experiments and simulations via a statistical hybrid modeling framework and can be extended to other catalytic systems to improve predictive models and mechanistic understanding.

Bayesian hybrid modeling↗

SNM Radiation Signature Classification Using Different Semi-Supervised Machine Learning Models

The timely detection of special nuclear material (SNM) transfers between nuclear facilities is an important monitoring objective in nuclear nonproliferation. Persistent monitoring enabled by successful detection and characterization of radiological material movements could greatly enhance the nuclear nonproliferation mission in a range of applications. Supervised machine learning can be used to signal detections when material is present if a model is trained on sufficient volumes of labeled measurements. However, the nuclear monitoring data needed to train robust machine learning models can be costly to label since radiation spectra may require strict scrutiny for characterization. Therefore, this work investigates the application of semi-supervised learning to utilize both labeled and unlabeled data. As a demonstration experiment, radiation measurements from sodium iodide (NaI) detectors are provided by the Multi-Informatics for Nuclear Operating Scenarios (MINOS) venture at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) as sample data. Anomalous measurements are identified using a method of statistical hypothesis testing. After background estimation, an energy-dependent spectroscopic analysis is used to characterize an anomaly based on its radiation signatures. In the absence of ground-truth information, a labeling heuristic provides data necessary for training and testing machine learning models. Supervised logistic regression serves as a baseline to compare three semi-supervised machine learning models: co-training, label propagation, and a convolutional neural network (CNN). In each case, the semi-supervised models outperform logistic regression, suggesting that unlabeled data can be valuable when training and demonstrating value in semi-supervised nonproliferation implementations.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

First coupled GENE–XGC microturbulence simulations

Covering the core and the edge region of a tokamak, respectively, the two gyrokinetic turbulence codes Gyrokinetic Electromagnetic Numerical Experiment (GENE) and X-point Gyrokinetic Code (XGC) have been successfully coupled by exchanging three-dimensional charge density data needed to solve the gyrokinetic Poisson equation over the entire spatial domain. Certain challenges for the coupling procedure arise from the fact that the two codes employ completely different numerical methods. This includes, in particular, the necessity to introduce mapping procedures for the transfer of data between the unstructured triangular mesh of XGC and the logically rectangular grid (in a combination of real and Fourier space) used by GENE. Constraints on the coupling scheme are also imposed by the use of different time integrators. First, coupled simulations are presented. We have considered collisionless ion temperature gradient turbulence, in both circular and fully shaped plasmas. Coupled simulations successfully reproduce both GENE and XGC reference results, confirming the validity of the code coupling approach toward a whole device model. Here, many lessons learned in the present context, in particular, the need for a coupling procedure as flexible as possible, should be valuable to our and other efforts to couple different kinds of codes in pursuit of a more comprehensive description of complex real-world systems and will drive our further developments of a whole device model for fusion plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Supplemental Data for the Manuscript: Quantification of Manganese for ChemCam Mars and Laboratory Spectra Using a Multivariate Model

This dataset includes all of the data needed to validate and/or reproduce the manganese calibration model described in the manuscript. The reference database contains metadata for the new Mn-bearing standards, minerals, and mixtures that are > 2.9 wt.% MnO. In addition, the files include the MnO composition data for all standards used, non-normalized spectral data, mean peak area spectrum, results of outlier determination, RMSECV data, regression vectors, and Test Set predictions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Comparison of removal and spatial mark‐resight models for estimating wild pig density

Density estimation is critical to effectively manage invasive species and elucidate areas of highest concern. For wild pigs (Sus scrofa), the ability to estimate density is complicated because of their variable home range sizes and social structure. Common methods for estimating density (e.g., mark-recapture) may be unsuitable in management applications because additional data needs to be collected before and after management. Removal models offer a suitable alternative to estimate density changes following management and can be applied broadly across areas where management of wild pigs is ongoing. We collected wild pig removal and camera trap data from 25 private properties ranging in size from approximately 0.5 km 2 to 95 km 2 across 3 ecoregions in South Carolina, USA, from 2020–2023. We compared factors affecting consistency and precision of property-level density estimates between removal and spatial mark-resight (SMR) models. In general, excluding 1 large outlier, density estimates from removal models were between 0.60 and 15.85 wild pigs/km 2 (median = 5.34) with a median coefficient of variation (CV) of 0.76 and 95% confidence intervals for the CV between 0.70 and 0.94. Similarly, excluding 1 large outlier, density estimates from SMR were between 0.22 and 30.97 wild pigs/km 2 (median = 5.48) with a median CV of 0.39 and 95% confidence intervals for the CV between 0.38 and 1.20. We found the precision of removal models was affected primarily by the number of wild pigs dispatched in the removal period (3 months) and the ecoregion in which they were removed. None of the covariates, including the number of recaptures (a corresponding measure of sample size), influenced precision of the SMR models, although recaptures did influence the density estimates. At the individual property level, density estimates from our 2 estimators were dissimilar from each other in approximately 80% of instances, although none of the covariates we examined influenced dissimilarity. Our results provide unique insight into how sample size affects density estimates using 2 common methods and into novel SMR models that incorporate both marked and unmarked detections. In addition, the density estimates in this study can be used as a reference for wild pig densities in common land cover types throughout the southeastern United States.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Data-driven key performance indicators and datasets for building energy flexibility: A review and perspectives

Energy flexibility, through short-term demand-side management (DSM) and energy storage technologies, is now seen as a major key to balancing the fluctuating supply in different energy grids with the energy demand of buildings. This is especially important when considering the intermittent nature of ever-growing renewable energy production, as well as the increasing dynamics of electricity demand in buildings. This paper provides a holistic review of (1) data-driven energy flexibility key performance indicators (KPIs) for buildings in the operational phase and (2) open datasets that can be used for testing energy flexibility KPIs. The review identifies a total of 48 data-driven energy flexibility KPIs from 87 recent and relevant publications. These KPIs were categorized and analyzed according to their type, complexity, scope, key stakeholders, data requirement, baseline requirement, resolution, and popularity. Moreover, 330 building datasets were collected and evaluated. Of those, 16 were deemed adequate to feature building performing demand response or building-to-grid (B2G) services. The DSM strategy, building scope, grid type, control strategy, needed data features, and usability of these selected 16 datasets were analyzed. This review reveals future opportunities to address limitations in the existing literature: (1) developing new data-driven methodologies to specifically evaluate different energy flexibility strategies and B2G services of existing buildings; (2) developing baseline-free KPIs that could be calculated from easily accessible building sensors and meter data; (3) devoting non-engineering efforts to promote building energy flexibility, standardizing data-driven energy flexibility quantification and verification processes; and (4) curating and analyzing datasets with proper description for energy flexibility assessm.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Zirconium Scattering Sensitivity in Neutron Transport Calculations of Multiplying Systems [Slides]

This presentation touches on motivation and applications of Zirconium. Performance of evaluated libraries on double and quasi differential experiments is considered. Additionally, the performance of evaluated libraries in select ICSBEP benchmarks is considered. Provided is a detailed look in the performance of evaluated libraries in preliminary benchmark configurations for IER-516: Zirconium Test Assembly (ZTA). Conclusions and recommended experiments to satisfy Zirconium scattering nuclear data needs are presented.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

An Active Learning-Based Streaming Pipeline for Reduced Data Training of Structure Finding Models in Neutron Diffractometry

Structure determination workloads in neutron diffractometry are computationally expensive and routinely require several hours to many days to determine the structure of a material from its neutron diffraction patterns. The potential for machine learning models trained on simulated neutron scattering patterns to significantly speed up these tasks have been reported recently. However, the amount of simulated data needed to train these models grows exponentially with the number of structural parameters to be predicted and poses a significant computational challenge. To overcome this challenge, we introduce a novel batch-mode active learning (AL) policy that uses uncertainty sampling to simulate training data drawn from a probability distribution that prefers labelled examples about which the model is least certain. We confirm its efficacy in training the same models with ∼ 75% less training data while improving the accuracy. We then discuss the design of an efficient stream-based training workflow that uses this AL policy and present a performance study on two heterogeneous platforms to demonstrate that, compared with a conventional training workflow, the streaming workflow delivers ∼ 20% shorter training time without any loss of accuracy.

Wang, Tianle [Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL)↗

Irradiation Testing of Ultrasonic Transducers

Ultrasonic technologies offer the potential for high accuracy and resolution in-pile measurement of numerous parameters, including geometry changes, temperature, crack initiation and growth, gas pressure and composition, and microstructural changes. Many Department of Energy-Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) programs are exploring the use of ultrasonic technologies to provide enhanced sensors for in-pile instrumentation during irradiation testing. For example, the ability of single, small diameter ultrasonic thermometers (UTs) to provide a temperature profile in candidate metallic and oxide fuel would provide much needed data for validating new fuel performance models. Other efforts include an ultrasonic technique to detect morphology changes (such as crack initiation and growth) and acoustic techniques to evaluate fission gas composition and pressure. These efforts are limited by the lack of existing knowledge of ultrasonic transducer material survivability under irradiation conditions. To address this need, the Pennsylvania State University (PSU) was awarded an Advanced Test Reactor National Scientific User Facility (ATR NSUF) project to evaluate promising magnetostrictive and piezoelectric transducer performance in the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Research Reactor (MITR) up to a fast fluence of at least 1021 n/cm2 (E> 0.1 MeV). This test will be an instrumented lead test; and real-time transducer performance data will be collected along with temperature and neutron and gamma flux data. By characterizing magnetostrictive and piezoelectric transducer survivability during irradiation, test results will enable the development of novel radiation tolerant ultrasonic sensors for use in Material and Test Reactors (MTRs). The current work bridges the gap between proven out-of-pile ultrasonic techniques and in-pile deployment of ultrasonic sensors by acquiring the data necessary to demonstrate the performance of ultrasonic transducers

Daw, J.↗

C 12 ( n , n 1 ′ γ ) partial γ -ray cross section measured using the GENESIS array

Improved neutron inelastic scattering cross sections have repeatedly been identified as a top priority nuclear data need, important for basic science and a range of applications in nuclear energy, stockpile stewardship, and proliferation detection. For the C 12 ( n , n ′ γ ) reaction in particular, recent measurements have unveiled some structural discrepancies, demonstrating incongruities among themselves and in relation to the ENDF/B-VIII.0 nuclear data evaluation. To help resolve these disagreements, a measurement was performed at the 88-Inch Cyclotron at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory using a broad-spectrum neutron beam and a 99.8% pure natural carbon target. The Gamma Energy Neutron Energy Spectrometer for Inelastic Scattering (GENESIS) was employed to measure energy-differential γ -ray emission spectra as a function of incident neutron energy in the energy range of 5.5 to 16.7 MeV. The C 12 partial γ -ray cross sections were extracted at 63 ∘ , 122 . 5 ∘ , and 150 ∘ with respect to the incoming neutron beam and integrated using angular distribution data available in the literature. The data show agreement with a recent literature measurement and evaluation from 11 to 15 MeV, but indicate a larger cross section for incident neutron energies between 5.5 and 8.5 MeV. The measured relative angular distributions are also reported and were found to agree with evaluation. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Gordon, J. M. (ORCID:0009000789886897)↗

Proposal from the NA61/SHINE Collaboration for update of European Strategy for Particle Physics

Building on the current program's success and driven by new physics challenges, the NA61/SHINE Collaboration proposes to continue measuring hadron production properties in reactions induced by hadron and ion beams after CERN Long Shutdown 3. These measurements are of significant interest to the heavy-ion, cosmic-ray, and neutrino physics communities and will focus on: - Investigating hadron production in the light-ion systems to explore the diagram of high-energy nuclear collisions, and to obtain new insight into the unexpected violation of isospin (flavor) symmetry recently observed by the experiment; - Measuring charm-anticharm correlations to gain unique insights into the production locality of charm and anticharm quark pairs; - Examining strangeness and multi-strangeness production to improve our understanding of the early Universe's evolution and neutron star formation; - Measuring cross sections relevant for cosmic-ray measurements, significantly boosting searches for new physics in our Galaxy; - Conducting hadron production measurements with proton, pion, and kaon beams for neutrino physics, enhancing the precision of hadron production data needed for initial neutrino flux predictions in neutrino oscillation experiments; - Measuring hadron production processes relevant for understanding the flux of atmospheric neutrinos, as well as neutrinos and muons from spallation sources. To achieve these objectives, a detector upgrade and a beam upgrade are required, with data-taking planned for the period 2029-2032 and beyond.

Adhikary, H. [Jan Kochanowski U.] (ORCID:000000025↗

Cost and Performance Baseline for Fossil Energy Plants, Volume 5: Natural Gas Electricity Generating Units for Flexible Operation

To address the data needs of energy system designers and to serve as a baseline for research and development, NETL has carried out a study to characterize the flexibility attributes - both performance and cost - of nine common commercial natural gas-fueled electricity generating units. The intermittent output of low-carbon, renewable power generation sources such as wind and solar create challenges to grid stability and reliability. Fossil-fueled power generation technologies are currently used to provide reliable, on-demand power during periods of reduced renewable output. Dispatchable generators must be able to accommodate increasing renewable generation as the nation pursues the Administration’s target of a decarbonized energy sector by 2035. As energy system experts seek to identify least-cost approaches to decarbonization, accurate cost and performance data characterizing dispatchable fossil generators that operate flexibly, at capacity factors that have been declining over time, and are needed to inform models for capacity expansion. Furthermore, these technologies continue to be a significant source of carbon dioxide emissions, providing the impetus for research and development, including the advancement and potential incorporation of carbon capture technologies. This study characterizes the cost and performance of select state-of-the-art natural gas-fueled power generation technologies: reciprocating internal combustion engines (RICE), simple cycle combustion turbines, and natural gas combined cycles (NGCC). An emphasis is placed on flexibility characteristics, such as part-load heat rate, ramp rates, start up times, and start up costs.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Phase curves of small bodies from the SLOAN Moving Objects Catalog

Extensive photometric surveys continue to produce enormous stores of data on small bodies. These data are typically sparsely obtained at arbitrary (or unknown) rotational phases. Therefore, new methods for processing such data need to be developed to make the most of these vast catalogs. We aim to produce a method of recreating the phase curves of small bodies by considering the uncertainties introduced by the nominal errors in the magnitudes and the effect introduced by rotational variations. Here, we use the SLOAN Moving Objects Catalog data as a benchmark to construct phase curves of all small bodies in u', g', r', i', and z' filters. From the phase curves, we obtain the absolute magnitudes and we use them to set up the absolute colors, which are the colors of the asteroids that are not affected by changes in the phase angle. We selected objects with ≥3 observations taken in at least one filter and spanning over a minimum of 5 degrees in the phase angle. We developed a method that combines Monte Carlo simulations and Bayesian inference to estimate the absolute magnitudes using the HG 12 * photometric system. We obtained almost 15 000 phase curves, with about 12 000 of these including all five filters. The absolute magnitudes and absolute colors are compatible with previously published data that support our method. The method we developed is fully automatic and well suited for a run based on large amounts of data. Moreover, it includes the nominal uncertainties in the magnitudes and the whole distribution of possible rotational states of the objects producing what are possibly less precise values, that is, larger uncertainties, but more accurate, namely, closer to the actual value. To our knowledge, this work is the first to include the effect of rotational variations in such a manner.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Disruption avoidance via island suppression: the crucial roles of DIII-D and foundational research

The FESAC long range plan calls out disruption avoidance and mitigation as key remaining technical gaps. In discussing the roles of DIII-D and NSTX-U, the FESAC long range plan says “Additional research on these facilities, in combination with private and international collaborations, continuing support of existing university tokamak programs, and utilization of US expertise in theory and simulation, is needed to find solutions to remaining technical gaps. These gaps include disruption prediction, avoidance, and mitigation …”. Disruptions pose an existential threat to ITER and to FPPs. For a fusion reactor, unplanned shutdowns caused by disruptions will be a significant barrier to connecting such a reactor to the electric grid, even if disruption mitigation is successful. Disruption studies for ITER in recent years have largely focused on disruption mitigation (e.g., pellet injection), motivated by near-term deadlines for finalizing the design of the mitigation hardware. It is recognized, however, that mitigation alone will not suffice. The 2022 U.S. ITER Research Needs Workshop Report states that ”[d]isruptions are considered the largest threat to the ITER Research Program”, and that “[m]itigation should be a last resort”. As we discuss below, there are unresolved foundational issues that play a critical role in avoidance, and DIII-D is an ideal device for generating the data needed to address these issues.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗