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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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AMSLib provides infrastructure to tightly couple multi-scale physics simulation code with ML surrogate model inference. It provides a wholistic runtime execution paradigm to supports uncertainty quantification, surrogate model inference, persistent data storing throughout the execution of a simulation.
This software is being developed to support data analysis and simulation for the growing field of outer heliosphere physics. In particular, this software will allow data analysis, inference, and simulation of physical mechanisms describing how energetic neutral atoms behave that originate from the solar system's boundary with the interstellar medium.
Existing discontinuous palynological records from coastal and river valley exposures, with varying quality of radiocarbon control, suggested that the regional Holocene climate in southern areas of the Russian Far East was characterized by as many as 10 fluctuations in temperature and/or precipitation. In this study, palynological data from Zerkalnoye Lake, located on the western coast of the Sea of Japan, indicate a gradual decline in temperature through the Middle and Late-Holocene with a Holocene thermal maximum between 8800 and 5500 cal yr BP. Three wetter than present intervals, marked by an increase in Pinus koraiensis, occurred c. 3600–3500 cal yr BP, 2340–2050 cal yr BP, and 1830–1800 cal yr BP. The Zerkalnoye record shows the dominance of Quercus-broadleaf forests during the Middle and Early Holocene, although Quercus shows a gradual decrease as climate cooled during this interval. Diatom analysis of the Zerkalnoye sediments documents that the site was a shallow bay or coastal lagoon until c. 3540 cal yr BP. After that time, a freshwater lake was established, which had variable marine influences probably caused by sea level changes following deglaciation. The diatom data indicate a cool water interval between 2900 and 2580 cal yr BP, also noted in other sites in the region. Changes in the basin’s depositional environment do not affect the palynological record, indicating such sites can provide reliable paleovegetational and paleoclimatic records. In conclusion, the discrepancies of the various regional paleoclimatic scenarios indicate the need for the further collection of continuous records from coastal to alpine zones in this region of northeastern Asia.
Serial ensemble filters implement triangular probability transport maps to reduce high-dimensional inference problems to sequences of state-by-state univariate inference problems. The univariate inference problems are solved by sampling posterior probability densities obtained by combining constructed prior densities with observational likelihoods according to Bayes' rule. Many serial filters in the literature focus on representing the marginal posterior densities of each state. However, rigorously capturing the conditional dependencies between the different univariate inferences is crucial to correctly sampling multidimensional posteriors. This work proposes a new serial ensemble filter, called the copula rank histogram filter (CoRHF), that seeks to capture the conditional dependency structure between variables via empirical copula estimates; these estimates are used to rigorously implement the triangular (state-by-state univariate) Bayesian inference. The success of the CoRHF is demonstrated on two-dimensional examples and the Lorenz'63 problem. A practical extension to the high-dimensional setting is developed by localizing the empirical copula estimation, and is demonstrated on the Lorenz'96 problem.
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To better understand porosity, strength, chemical reactivity, and patterns of fractures, we developed methods using mineral deposits to unravel how fracture growth and diagenesis interact to create and destroy fracture porosity. Quartz and dolomite cement textures and associated fluid inclusion assemblage sequences and thermal histories provided data to infer the duration and rates at which fractures open. We developed and tested a model that accounts for how fracture porosity and rock properties change as a function of thermal exposure and how fracture size and arrangement evolve. Effects of cement deposits on growth were investigated with new geomechanical models and new methods to quantify fracture spatial arrangement. We tested these concepts in a wide range of rock types using outcrop and core-based datasets. We documented opening histories of fractures and fracture arrays in contrasting tectonic and thermal regimes. Our methods set a new standard for fracture characterization and our diagenetic-geomechanical model accurately predicts fluid flow characteristics of fractured rocks based on coupled effects of diagenesis and deformation. Results represent a significant advance in fundamental understanding of fractures in the Earth and have application to improving subsurface engineering operations in a wide range of contexts including geothermal and sequestration applications. The breakthrough of successfully reconstructing the timing and opening rates of parts of single fractures and portions of fracture arrays to document the growth and linkage of fracture arrays was an accomplishment of this grant that is being followed up in our current BES grant DE-SC0022968, ‘Reconstructing and Predicting Fracture Pattern Evolution‘
Previous work was performed on tuning CGMF parameters for 235 U, 238 U, and Plutonium isotopes. Now work is being done to tune minor uranium isotopes. However, uranium isotopes like 232 U and 236 U have almost no experimental data. We are applying cross-isotope models to extrapolate and tune CGMF on isotopes that lack experimental data. There exist several internal CGMF physics quantities that affect the output of CGMF—multi-chance fission probability, excitation energy sharing, spin-cutoff factor, spin scaling, and fragment total kinetic energy to name a few. The mean fragment total kinetic energy, $\overline{TKE}$, is particularly interesting because of its strong anti-correlation with $\bar{v}$. We are most interested in the mean fragment total kinetic energy before neutron emissions. $\overline{TKE}$ is assumed to be pre-neutron emission unless otherwise stated. Currently in CGMF, the $\overline{TKE}$ model for 233,234,235,238 U are tuned independently to reproduce ν for the associated isotopes. In this report, we will tune a cross-isotope $\overline{TKE}$ model to experimental $\overline{TKE}$ data for 232,233,234,235,236,238 U. Because of the unreliable and sparse nature of $\overline{TKE}$ experimental data, future work will use more reliable experimental $\bar{v}$ data to infer the $\overline{TKE}$ model (and likely other internal CGMF parameters) for uranium isotopes. Such work has been performed previously using a sensitivity analysis and Kalman filter methods.
We investigate a sample of six Herbig Ae/Be stars belonging to the Orion OB1 association, as well as 73 low-mass objects, members of the σ Orionis cluster, in order to explore the angular momentum evolution at early stages of evolution, and its possible connection with main-sequence Ap/Bp magnetic stars. Using FIES and HECTOCHELLE spectra, we obtain projected rotational velocities through two independent methods. Individual masses, radii, and ages are computed using evolutionary models, distance, and cluster extinction. Under the assumption that similar physical processes operate in both T Tauri and Herbig Ae/Be stars, we construct snapshots of the protostar’s rotation against mass during the first 10 Myr with the aid of a rotational model that includes a variable disk lifetime, changes in the stellar moment of inertia, a dipolar magnetic field with variable strength, and angular momentum loss through stellar winds powered by accretion. We use these snapshots, as well as the rotational data, to infer a plausible scenario for the angular momentum evolution. We find that magnetic field strengths of a few kilo-Gauss at 3 Myr are required to match the rotational velocities of both groups of stars. Models with masses between 2 M {sub ⊙} and 3 M {sub ⊙} display larger angular momentum values by a factor of ~3, in comparison to stars of similar spectral types on the main sequence. Even though some quantitative estimates on this dramatic decrease with age for Ap/Bp magnetic main-sequence stars are presented, the results obtained for the angular momentum evolution do not explain their low rotation rates.
The properties of Milky Way satellite galaxies have important implications for galaxy formation, reionization, and the fundamental physics of dark matter. However, the population of Milky Way satellites includes the faintest known galaxies, and current observations are incomplete. To understand the impact of observational selection effects on the known satellite population, we perform rigorous, quantitative estimates of the Milky Way satellite galaxy detection efficiency in three wide-field survey datasets: the Dark Energy Survey Year 6, the DECam Local Volume Exploration Data Release 3, and the Pan-STARRS1 Data Release 1. Together, these surveys cover ∼13,600 deg 2 to g ∼ 24.0 and ∼27,700 deg 2 to g ∼ 22.5, spanning ∼91% of the high-Galactic-latitude sky (∣b∣ ≥ 15°). We apply multiple detection algorithms over the combined footprint and recover 49 known satellites above a strict census detection threshold. To characterize the sensitivity of our census, we run our detection algorithms on a large set of simulated galaxies injected into the survey data, which allows us to develop models that predict the detectability of satellites as a function of their properties. We then fit an empirical model to our data and infer the luminosity function, radial distribution, and size–luminosity relation of Milky Way satellite galaxies. Our empirical model predicts a total of $265^{+79}_{-47}$ satellite galaxies with −20 ≤ M V ≤ 0, half-light radii of 15 ≤ r 1/2 , (pc) ≤ 3000, and galactocentric distances of 10 ≤ D GC (kpc) ≤ 300. We also identify a mild anisotropy in the angular distribution of the observed galaxies, at a significance of ∼2σ, which can be attributed to the clustering of satellites associated with the LMC.
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We introduce the emPDF (empirical distribution function), a novel dynamical modelling method that infers the gravitational potential from kinematic tracers with optimal statistical efficiency under the minimal assumption of steady state. emPDF determines the best-fitting potential by maximizing the similarity between instantaneous kinematics and the time-averaged phase-space distribution function (DF), which is empirically constructed from observation upon the theoretical foundation of oPDF (Han et al. 2016). This approach eliminates the need for presumed functional forms of DFs or orbit libraries required by conventional DF- or orbit-based methods. emPDF stands out for its flexibility, efficiency, and capability in handling observational effects, making it preferable to the popular Jeans equation or other minimal assumption methods, especially for the Milky Way (MW) outer halo where tracers often have limited sample size and poor data quality. We apply emPDF to infer the MW mass profile using Gaia DR3 data of satellite galaxies and globular clusters, obtaining enclosed masses of M (,r) = 26±8, 46±8, 90±13, and 149±40 x 10 10 M ⊙ at r = 30, 50, 100, and 200 kpc, respectively. These are consistent with the updated constraints from simulation-informed DF fitting (Li et al. 2020). While the simulation-informed DF offers superior precision owing to the additional information extracted from simulations, emPDF is independent of such supplementary knowledge and applicable to general tracer populations. emPDF is currently implemented for tracers with complete 6D kinematics within spherical potentials, but it can potentially be extended to address more general problems.
The evolution of neutrino flavor in dense environments such as core-collapse supernovae and binary compact object mergers constitutes an important and unsolved problem. Its solution has potential implications for the dynamics and heavy-element nucleosynthesis in these environments. In this paper, we build upon recent work to explore inference-based techniques for the estimation of model parameters and neutrino flavor evolution histories. Here, we combine data assimilation, ordinary differential equation solvers, and neural networks to craft an inference approach tailored for nonlinear dynamical systems. Using this architecture, and a simple two-neutrino-beam, two-flavor model, we compare the performances of nine different optimization algorithms and expand upon previous assessments of the efficacy of inference for tackling problems in flavor evolution. We find that employing this new architecture, together with evolutionary optimization algorithms, accurately captures flavor histories in the small-scale model and allows us to quickly explore both model parameters and initial flavor content. In future work we plan to extend these inference techniques to large numbers of neutrinos.
Abstract: A useful feature in graph query engines is to clarify “Why certain entities (nodes, attribute values or edges) are missing” in query answers. This task is even more challenging when the relevant data is already missing in the underlying data source. Missing data, on the other hand, can be inferred by enforcing data constraints for graphs. We demonstrate GRIP, a system that exploits data constraints to clarify missing answers for graph queries. (1) Constraint-based ex- planation. Given a desired yet missing entity in the query answer, GRIP ensures to generate finite and minimal sequences of data con- strains (an “explanation”) that should be consecutively enforced to ?? to ensure its occurrence for the same query. (2) Answering “why” and“how” questions. Users can query GRIP with both“Why”(“Why” the element is missing) and “How” questions (“How” to refine the graph to include the missing answer). GRIP engine supports run- time generation of explanations by incrementally maintaining a set of bi-directional search trees. (3) Interactive exploration. GRIP provides a user-friendly GUI to support interactive ad visual exploration of explanations, including both automated generation and step-by-step inspection of graph manipulations.
Sensors in the built environment ensure safety and comfort by tracking contaminants in the occupied space. In the event of contaminant release, it is important to use the limited sensor data to rapidly and accurately identify the release location of the contaminant. Identification of the release location will enable subsequent remediation as well as evacuation decision-making. In previous work, we used an operator theoretic approach—based on the Perron–Frobenius (PF) operator—to estimate the contaminant concentration distribution in the domain given a finite amount of streaming sensor data. In the current work, the approach is extended to identify the most probable contaminant release location. The release location identification is framed as a Bayesian inference problem. The Bayesian inference approach requires considering multiple release location scenarios, which is done efficiently using the discrete PF operator. The discrete PF operator provides a fast, effective and accurate model for contaminant transport modeling. The utility of our PF-based Bayesian inference methodology is illustrated using single-point release scenarios in both two and three-dimensional cases. The method provides a fast, accurate, and efficient framework for real-time identification of contaminant source location.
A precise characterization of the incoming proton bunch parameters is required to accurately simulate the self-modulation process in the Advanced Wakefield Experiment (AWAKE). This paper presents an analysis of the parameters of the incoming proton bunches used in the later stages of the AWAKE Run 1 data-taking period. The transverse structure of the bunch is observed at multiple positions along the beamline using scintillating or optical transition radiation screens. The parameters of a model that describes the bunch transverse dimensions and divergence are fitted to represent the observed data using Bayesian inference. Finally, the analysis is tested on simulated data and then applied to the experimental data.
Eddy covariance data are invaluable for determining ecosystem water use strategies under soil water stress. However, existing stress inference methods require numerous subjective data processing and model specification assumptions whose effect on the inferred soil water stress signal is rarely quantified. These uncertainties may confound the stress inference and the generalization of ecosystem water use strategies across multiple sites and studies. In this research, we quantify the sensitivity of soil water stress signals inferred from eddy covariance data to the prevailing data and modeling assumptions (i.e., their robustness) to compile a comprehensive list of sites with robust soil water stress signals and assess the performance of current stress inference methods. To accomplish this, we identify the most prevalent assumptions from the literature and perform a digital factorial experiment to extract probability distributions of plausible soil water stress signals and model performance at 151 FLUXNET2015 and AmeriFlux-FLUXNET sites. Here, we develop a new framework that summarizes these probability distributions to classify and rank the robustness of each site’s soil water stress signal, which we display with a user-friendly heat map. We estimate that only 5%–36% of sites exhibit a robust soil water stress signal due to deficient model performance and poorly constrained ecosystem water use parameters. We also find that the lack of robustness is site-specific, which undermines grouping stress signals by broad ecosystem categories or comparing results across studies with differing assumptions. Lastly, existing stress inference methods appear better suited for eddy covariance sites with grass/annual vegetation. Our findings call for more careful and consistent inference of ecosystem water stress from eddy covariance data.
First analysis of the neutron time of flight (nTOF) data is presented to infer the areal density using the neutron down-scatter ratio (DSR) for OMEGA deuterium–tritium (DT)-layered (cryogenic) implosions. The required very-high-dynamic range (nTOF) signal is constructed using an nTOF detector [Forrest et al., Rev. Sci. Ins. 83, 10D919 (2012)] with multiple time-gated photomultiplier tubes. The nTOF data are analyzed using a forward-fit technique to account for the detector responses and infer the DSR and areal density for DT-layered implosions. The areal densities inferred using this analysis are found to be in agreement with the areal densities measured using the magnetic recoil spectrometer detector that is located in a similar line-of-sight. This work establishes the feasibility of the DSR measurement using nTOF data on OMEGA and provides an additional areal-density measurement that will benefit the assessment of the implosion performance and 3D reconstruction of the imploded core.