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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Covariance Testing at BNL [Slides]

This presentation discusses testing implemented in FUDGE & ADVANCE in regard to proper ENDF formatting: STAN, STANEF, CHECKR, FUDGE, NJOY, convert to BOXR format, plotting, endfcovreport.py which is an overview of ENDF library’s covariance contents, and covariance Matrix class implements that are the core of all GNDS covariance. Several checks are performed, including symmetric, real, positive definite, condition # of Eigenvalues, and too big uncertainties. The presentation states that it can fix too big and/or small uncertainties and that it can plot matrices. It states that further testing is recommended by CSEWG but has not yet been implemented and suggests methods such as documentation which needs a human to execute, completeness which is partially complete, and reasonableness which has not been started. The presentation concludes by elaborating on reasonableness and states that only cross section is documented, that similar limits on CP reactions cross sections are needed, that maximum limits are needed too which is tricky since ENDF assumes Normal PDFs, and that there may be other observables.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

ENDF/B-VIII.0 Augmented Covariance Data The first iteration [Slides]

Nuclear data are necessary for reliable modeling and simulation of the next generation of nuclear reactors. However, the variation in the ratio of the computed to experimental values (C/E) for certain types of nuclear systems is much less than predicted by evaluated nuclear data file (ENDF)/B covariances. Figure 1 provides an example of a set of metal-plutonium-fueled, fast-spectrum (PU-MET-FAST) integral experiments from the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) in the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) VALID database. The variation in the C/E values, shown with one standard deviation error bars, is 100% covered by both the SCALE and ENDB/VIII.0 covariance data. This is due to the comparisons to integral data that are essential during the evaluation process. However, the ENDF evaluations represent uncertainties and correlations in differential data only; they do not reflect the impact of the comparison to integral data in the covariance evaluations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Empirical State Error Covariance Matrix for Batch Estimation

State estimation techniques effectively provide mean state estimates. However, the theoretical state error covariance matrices provided as part of these techniques often suffer from a lack of confidence in their abilities to describe the true uncertainty in the estimated states. By a reinterpretation of the equations involved in the weighted least squares algorithm, it is possible to directly arrive at an empirical state error covariance matrix. This proposed empirical state error covariance matrix will contain the effect of all error sources, known or unknown. Results are presented for a simple, two observer, measurement error only problem.

Estimation↗
NASA NTRS2022

Source Decomposition of Eddy-Covariance CO 2 Flux Measurements for Evaluating a High-Resolution Urban CO 2 Emissions Inventory

We present the comparison of source-partitioned CO2 flux measurements with a high-resolution urban CO 2 emissions inventory (Hestia). Tower-based measurements of CO and 14 C are used to partition net CO 2 flux measurements into fossil and biogenic components. A flux footprint model is used to quantify spatial variation in flux measurements. We compare the daily cycle and spatial structure of Hestia and eddy-covariance derived fossil fuel CO 2 emissions on a seasonal basis. Hestia inventory emissions exceed the eddy-covariance measured emissions by 0.36 µ mol m −2 s −1 (3.2%) in the cold season and 0.62 µ mol m −2 s −1 (9.1%) in the warm season. The daily cycle of fluxes in both products matches closely, with correlations in the hourly mean fluxes of 0.86 (cold season) and 0.93 (warm season). The spatially averaged fluxes also agree in each season and a persistent spatial pattern in the differences during both seasons that may suggest a bias related to residential heating emissions. In addition, in the cold season, the magnitudes of average daytime biological uptake and nighttime respiration at this flux site are approximately 15% and 27% of the mean fossil fuel CO 2 emissions over the same time period, contradicting common assumptions of no significant biological CO 2 exchange in northern cities during winter. This work demonstrates the effectiveness of using trace gas ratios to adapt eddy-covariance flux measurements in urban environments for disaggregating anthropogenic CO 2 emissions and urban ecosystem fluxes at high spatial and temporal resolution.

eddy-covariance flux measurements↗
DOE OSTI2023

Nuclear Criticality Safety Integral Experiment Covariance Determination

Integral benchmarks for criticality safety and nuclear data validation require expensive uncertainty quantification studies. Commonly, the uncertainty quantification ignores correlations between experiments that share components. Experiments such as the TEX (Thermal/Epithermal eXperiments) campaigns consist of many shared parts between experiments, such as fuel, which creates a strong correlation in their errors. While these correlations are known to exist, they are often not estimated due to the complexity of such calculations. This paper describes a software package that uses an intuitive method of determining the covariance for each of the experimental components, providing a correlation matrix for each family of parts across the multiple cases examined within a benchmark. The code uses the TEX-HEU campaign as a proof of concept, and we show that the correlations can be calculated with information commonly found in ICSBEP (International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project) benchmarks. The estimated covariances are used in χ 2 trending studies to evaluate their impact on nuclear data validation. The covariance determination code can be easily integrated into current benchmark evaluations as well as reevaluating legacy benchmark uncertainties. Uncertainty correlation calculations should become the baseline for criticality safety integral experiment benchmarks and can now be easily calculated with the described software package.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Monitoring covariance in multivariate time series: Comparing machine learning and statistical approaches

Abstract In complex systems with multiple variables monitored at high‐frequency, variables are not only temporally autocorrelated, but they may also be nonlinearly related or exhibit nonstationarity as the inputs or operation changes. One approach to handling such variables is to detrend them prior to monitoring and then apply control charts that assume independence and stationarity to the residuals. Monitoring controlled systems is even more challenging because the control strategy seeks to maintain variables at prespecified mean levels, and to compensate, correlations among variables may change, making monitoring the covariance essential. In this paper, a vector autoregressive model (VAR) is compared with a multivariate random forest (MRF) and a neural network (NN) for detrending multivariate time series prior to monitoring the covariance of the residuals using a multivariate exponentially weighted moving average (MEWMA) control chart. Machine learning models have an advantage when the data's structure is unknown or may change. We design a novel simulation study with nonlinear, nonstationary, and autocorrelated data to compare the different detrending models and subsequent covariance monitoring. The machine learning models have superior performance for nonlinear and strongly autocorrelated data and similar performance for linear data. An illustration with data from a reverse osmosis process is given.

Weix, Derek↗
DOE OSTI2021

Helicity, spin, and infra-zilch of light: A Lorentz covariant formulation

Highlights: • Spin and orbital parts of angular momentum. • The helicity tensor contains the helicity, spin and infra-zilch currents. • The helicity tensor is a Noether current for a duality-symmetric action. • Symmetry generator for the helicity tensor. • The helicity tensor is conserved in Lorenz gauge. In this paper, a novel conserved Lorentz covariant tensor, termed the helicity tensor, is introduced in Maxwell theory. The conservation of the helicity tensor expresses the conservation laws contained in the helicity array, introduced by Cameron et al. (2012), including helicity, spin, as well as the spin-flux or infra-zilch. The Lorentz covariance of the helicity tensor is in contrast to previous formulations of the helicity hierarchy of conservation laws, which required the non-Lorentz covariant transverse gauge. The helicity tensor is shown to arise as a Noether current for a variational symmetry of a duality-symmetric Lagrangian for Maxwell theory. This symmetry transformation generalizes the duality symmetry and includes the symmetry underlying the conservation of the spin part of the angular momentum.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating 239 Pu(n,f) cross sections via machine learning using experimental data, covariances, and measurement features

In this paper, the neutron-induced 239 Pu fission cross section, 239 Pu(n,f), is evaluated from 1–20 MeV using experimental data and associated covariances while also considering information on the measurement, termed features here. For instance, methods to determine the background, sample backing material, or impurities in the sample, are explicitly taken into account in the evaluation process. To this end, outliers in the experimental data are identified with a modified version of the Hybrid Robust Support Vector Machine. In a second step, two machine learning methods (logistic regression with elastic net regularization and random forest regression with SHAP feature importance metric) are used to highlight measurement features that are common among many of the outlying data points. Based on this analysis, penalty uncertainties are added to the experimental covariances of outlying data points that have outlier measurement features and are put through the generalized-least-squares evaluation. The resulting evaluated mean values and covariances differ distinctly from those data evaluated without the penalty uncertainties. These results highlight that certain measurement features should be more closely examined.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Two-Dimensional Projected-Momentum Covariance Mapping for Coulomb Explosion Imaging

We introduce projected-momentum covariance mapping, an extension of recoil-frame covariance mapping for 2D ion imaging studies. By considering the two-dimensional projection of the ion momenta as recorded by the detector, one opens the door to a complex suite of analysis tools adapted from three-dimensional momentum imaging studies. This includes the use of different frames of reference to unravel the dynamics of fragmentation and the application of fragment momentum constraints to isolate specific fragmentation channels. The technique is demonstrated on data from a two-dimensional ion imaging study of the Coulomb explosion of the cis and trans isomers of 1,2-dichloroethene, following strong-field ionization by an intense near-infrared femtosecond laser pulse. Classical simulations are used to guide the interpretation of projected-momentum covariance maps. The results offer a detailed insight into the distinct Coulomb explosion dynamics for this pair of isomers and lay the groundwork for future time-resolved studies of photoisomerization dynamics in this molecular system.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Semi-analytical covariance matrices for two-point correlation function for DESI 2024 data

We present an optimized way of producing the fast semi-analytical covariance matrices for the Legendre moments of the two-point correlation function, taking into account survey geometry and mimicking the non-Gaussian effects. We validate the approach on simulated (mock) catalogs for different galaxy types, representative of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Data Release 1, used in 2024 analyses. We find only a few percent differences between the mock sample covariance matrix and our results, which can be expected given the approximate nature of the mocks, although we do identify discrepancies between the shot-noise properties of the DESI fiber assignment algorithm and the faster approximation (emulator) used in the mocks. Importantly, we find a close agreement (≤ 8% relative differences) in the projected errorbars for distance scale parameters for the baryon acoustic oscillation measurements. This confirms our method as an attractive alternative to simulation-based covariance matrices, especially for non-standard models or galaxy sample selections, making it particularly relevant to the broad current and future analyses of DESI data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Covariance matrices for variance-suppressed simulations

ABSTRACT Cosmological N-body simulations provide numerical predictions of the structure of the Universe against which to compare data from ongoing and future surveys, but the growing volume of the Universe mapped by surveys requires correspondingly lower statistical uncertainties in simulations, usually achieved by increasing simulation sizes at the expense of computational power. It was recently proposed to reduce simulation variance without incurring additional computational costs by adopting fixed-amplitude initial conditions. This method has been demonstrated not to introduce bias in various statistics, including the two-point statistics of galaxy samples typically used for extracting cosmological parameters from galaxy redshift survey data, but requires us to revisit current methods for estimating covariance matrices of clustering statistics for simulations. In this work, we find that it is not trivial to construct covariance matrices analytically for fixed-amplitude simulations, but we demonstrate that ezmock (Effective Zel’dovich approximation mock catalogue), the most efficient method for constructing mock catalogues with accurate two- and three-point statistics, provides reasonable covariance matrix estimates for such simulations. We further examine how the variance suppression obtained by amplitude-fixing depends on three-point clustering, small-scale clustering, and galaxy bias, and propose intuitive explanations for the effects we observe based on the ezmock bias model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Kronecker-structured covariance models for multiway data

Many applications produce multiway data of exceedingly high dimension. Modeling such multi-way data is important in multichannel signal and video processing where sensors produce multi-indexed data, e.g. over spatial, frequency, and temporal dimensions. We will address the challenges of covariance representation of multiway data and review some of the progress in statistical modeling of multiway covariance over the past two decades, focusing on tensor-valued covariance models and their inference. We will illustrate through a space weather application: predicting the evolution of solar active regions over time.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impact of Light Water Covariance on Integral Benchmarks [Slides]

New light water covariance has been generated. Impact of covariance quantified using two metrics on systems deemed sensitive to thermal scattering of light water. Analysis shows systems might not be sensitive enough to show significant differences. What differences were shown are most notable when comparing against the ENDF/B-VIII.0 covariance.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Physics-informed Estimation of the Covariance Matrix for Various Neutron Spectra

A method for estimating covariance matrices which capture the uncertainties in calculated reactor spectra has been developed. This method is based on perturbing the parameters of a physics-based analytic model fitted to a calculated spectrum. The covariance of the perturbed analytic spectra imposes energy-dependent correlations due to the physics of the neutron processes in the reactor, i.e., a fission component, a 1/E down-scatting component, and a thermal Maxwellian component. An analytic model is developed which is shown to produce good fits to several reactor environments. The covariance matrices produced via this method are then used as the prior spectrum in STAYSL least squares spectrum adjustment where it is combined with integral metrics, such as activation measurements, to produce a high-fidelity neutron spectrum characterization. It was concluded that the methodology showed agreeable results for the ACRR free-field spectrum adjustment in STAYSL resulting in a 𝜒 2 value of 2.21 (per degree of freedom), but further work is needed to describe scattering and interface regions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

On the Error Covariance Correction Step of an ESKF Attitude Update

The attitude states of an error-state Kalman filter (ESKF) behave differently than most other states in the system due to their multiplicative (rather than additive) nature. One way in which they differ is an error covariance correction step after an ESKF error reset, which is not required for, for example, position and velocity states. This covariance correction step is not intuitive, and it has only been recently derived for coordinate transform matrices. The author of this memo, however, found the provided derivation in [1] confusing due to a lack of clarity surrounding the invoked reference frames, and clarity is required as there are at least 4 different ways to parameterize small-angle attitude errors in an ESKF. Furthermore, while reproducing the work, the author of this memo found a more straightforward derivation that provides additional insight into the correction step. This memo offers a derivation of the attitude error covariance correction step of an ESKF, which pays specific attention to the coordinate reference frames.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

PISCES two-detector covariance matrix fit for the NOvA Experiment

NOvA is a long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment with two functionally identical detectors: a Near Detector (ND) at Fermilab, placed 1 km from the neutrino source, and a Far Detector (FD) located 810 km away from the ND in Minnesota. NOvA's primary physics goals are the precise measurements of neutrino oscillation parameters $\theta_{23}$ and $\Delta m^2_{32}$ , determine the neutrino mass ordering, and constrain the value of $\delta_{CP}$, via the study of muon neutrino to electron neutrino oscillation. In the standard NOvA three-flavor analysis, oscillation parameters are extracted using an extrapolation technique in which the ND data constrain the FD prediction through a ratio method. While this allows for systematic uncertainties sharing the same effects in both detectors to cancel, it remains an FD-only fit and does not fully leverage the constraining power of the high-statistics ND. This analysis proposes a simultaneous ND+FD fit using the PISCES method. PISCES (Parameter Inference with Systematic Covariance and Exact Statistics) is a framework designed to support complex configurations such as a joint ND+FD fit. This allows PISCES to take full advantage of the ND data to directly constrain systematic uncertainties across all samples. In PISCES, systematic uncertainties are encoded in a fractional covariance matrix, and statistical uncertainties are handled with a Poisson likelihood, making the approach well suited for low-statistics samples. For interpretability, we further use a Newton–Raphson + PCA method to recover per-systematic pulls from the covariance formulation. This poster presents the full PISCES joint ND+FD fit for the NOvA three-flavor analysis, describes its implementation and evaluates its performance through extensive robustness tests and fake data studies. It also provides a comparison between the PISCES joint ND+FD results and the standard NOvA extrapolation method.

Rajaoalisoa, Miriama [Cincinnati U.] (ORCID:000000↗
DOE OSTI2020

Scaling carbon fluxes from eddy covariance sites to globe: synthesis and evaluation of the FLUXCOM approach

FLUXNET comprises globally distributed eddy-covariance-based estimates of carbon fluxes between the biosphere and the atmosphere. Since eddy covariance flux towers have a relatively small footprint and are distributed unevenly across the world, upscaling the observations is necessary to obtain global-scale estimates of biosphere–atmosphere exchange. Based on cross-consistency checks with atmospheric inversions, sun-induced fluorescence (SIF) and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), here we provide a systematic assessment of the latest upscaling efforts for gross primary production (GPP) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of the FLUXCOM initiative, where different machine learning methods, forcing data sets and sets of predictor variables were employed. Spatial patterns of mean GPP are consistent across FLUXCOM and DGVM ensembles (R 2 >0.94 at 1° spatial resolution) while the majority of DGVMs show, for 70 % of the land surface, values outside the FLUXCOM range. Global mean GPP magnitudes for 2008–2010 from FLUXCOM members vary within 106 and 130 PgC yr -1 with the largest uncertainty in the tropics. Seasonal variations in independent SIF estimates agree better with FLUXCOM GPP (mean global pixel-wise R 2 ~0.75) than with GPP from DGVMs (mean global pixel-wise R 2 ~0.6). Seasonal variations in FLUXCOM NEE show good consistency with atmospheric inversion-based net land carbon fluxes, particularly for temperate and boreal regions (R 2 >0.92). Interannual variability of global NEE in FLUXCOM is underestimated compared to inversions and DGVMs. The FLUXCOM version which also uses meteorological inputs shows a strong co-variation in interannual patterns with inversions (R 2 =0.87 for 2001–2010). Mean regional NEE from FLUXCOM shows larger uptake than inversion and DGVM-based estimates, particularly in the tropics with discrepancies of up to several hundred grammes of carbon per square metre per year. These discrepancies can only partly be reconciled by carbon loss pathways that are implicit in inversions but not captured by the flux tower measurements such as carbon emissions from fires and water bodies. We hypothesize that a combination of systematic biases in the underlying eddy covariance data, in particular in tall tropical forests, and a lack of site history effects on NEE in FLUXCOM are likely responsible for the too strong tropical carbon sink estimated by FLUXCOM. Furthermore, as FLUXCOM does not account for CO 2 fertilization effects, carbon flux trends are not realistic. Overall, current FLUXCOM estimates of mean annual and seasonal cycles of GPP as well as seasonal NEE variations provide useful constraints of global carbon cycling, while interannual variability patterns from FLUXCOM are valuable but require cautious interpretation. Exploring the diversity of Earth observation data and of machine learning concepts along with improved quality and quantity of flux tower measurements will facilitate further improvements of the FLUXCOM approach overall.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1972

Power series evaluation of transition and covariance matrices.

Reexamination power series solutions to the matrix covariance differential equation and the transition differential equation. Truncation error bounds are derived which are computationally attractive and which extend previous results. Polynomial approximations are obtained by exploiting the functional equations satisfied by the transition and covariance matrices. The series-functional equation propagation technique represents a fast and accurate alternative to the numerical integration of the time-invariant transition and covariance equations.

Bierman, G. J.↗