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At least 127 records · Page 7

Seasonal Drought Prediction in East Africa: Can National Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts Help?

The increasing food and water demands of East Africa's growing population are stressing the region's inconsistent water resources and rain-fed agriculture. As recently as in 2011 part of this region underwent one of the worst famine events in its history. Timely and skillful drought forecasts at seasonal scale for this region can inform better water and agro-pastoral management decisions, support optimal allocation of the region's water resources, and mitigate socio-economic losses incurred by droughts. However seasonal drought prediction in this region faces several challenges. Lack of skillful seasonal rainfall forecasts; the focus of this presentation, is one of those major challenges. In the past few decades, major strides have been taken towards improvement of seasonal scale dynamical climate forecasts. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) National Multi-model Ensemble (NMME) is one such state-of-the-art dynamical climate forecast system. The NMME incorporates climate forecasts from 6+ fully coupled dynamical models resulting in 100+ ensemble member forecasts. Recent studies have indicated that in general NMME offers improvement over forecasts from any single model. However thus far the skill of NMME for forecasting rainfall in a vulnerable region like the East Africa has been unexplored. In this presentation we report findings of a comprehensive analysis that examines the strength and weakness of NMME in forecasting rainfall at seasonal scale in East Africa for all three of the prominent seasons for the region. (i.e. March-April-May, July-August-September and October-November- December). Simultaneously we also describe hybrid approaches; that combine statistical approaches with NMME forecasts; to improve rainfall forecast skill in the region when raw NMME forecasts lack in skill.

Shukla, Shraddhanand↗

Seasonal Drought Prediction in East Africa: Can National Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts Help?

The increasing food and water demands of East Africa's growing population are stressing the region's inconsistent water resources and rain-fed agriculture. As recently as in 2011 part of this region underwent one of the worst famine events in its history. Timely and skillful drought forecasts at seasonal scale for this region can inform better water and agro-pastoral management decisions, support optimal allocation of the region's water resources, and mitigate socio-economic losses incurred by droughts. However seasonal drought prediction in this region faces several challenges. Lack of skillful seasonal rainfall forecasts; the focus of this presentation, is one of those major challenges. In the past few decades, major strides have been taken towards improvement of seasonal scale dynamical climate forecasts. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) National Multi-model Ensemble (NMME) is one such state-of-the-art dynamical climate forecast system. The NMME incorporates climate forecasts from 6+ fully coupled dynamical models resulting in 100+ ensemble member forecasts. Recent studies have indicated that in general NMME offers improvement over forecasts from any single model. However thus far the skill of NMME for forecasting rainfall in a vulnerable region like the East Africa has been unexplored. In this presentation we report findings of a comprehensive analysis that examines the strength and weakness of NMME in forecasting rainfall at seasonal scale in East Africa for all three of the prominent seasons for the region. (i.e. March-April-May, July-August-September and October-November- December). Simultaneously we also describe hybrid approaches; that combine statistical approaches with NMME forecasts; to improve rainfall forecast skill in the region when raw NMME forecasts lack in skill.

Shukla, Shraddhanand↗

Flux-Pinned Dynamics Model Parameterization and Sensitivity Study

Flux-pinned interfaces for spacecraft are an action-at-a-distance technology that can maintain a passively stable equilibrium between two spacecraft in close-proximity using the physics of magnetic flux pinning. Although flux pinning dynamics have been studied from a material-science perspective and at an interface level, there is a need to better understand the sensitivities and implications of system-level designs on the flux-pinned interface dynamics, especially in designs with multiple magnets and superconductors. These interfaces have highly nonlinear, coupled dynamics that are influenced by physical parameters including but not limited to strength of magnetic field sources, field-cooled position, and superconductor geometry. This paper addresses that gap by codifying parametric terms into an improved dynamics model, which can then be used to simulate the interaction of a multiple-superconductor-multiple-magnet interface. A standard starting point for modeling flux pinning dynamics is Kordyuk’s frozen image model, which defines a geometric mapping between magnetic field sources and their corresponding magnetic point source “images inside the volume of the superconductor.” The frozen image model successfully approximates the characteristics of flux pinning dynamics, but could provide more precise position and orientation predictions with the addition of various physical parameter refinements. The sensitivity of the general flux-pinned dynamics model is studied by varying the physical parameters and simulating the systems level dynamics. A predictive dynamics model is crucial to the maturation of this technology so it can be utilized in spacecraft systems, and this work represents a critical step in the development of that model.

Peck, Mason↗

The coupling of fluids, dynamics, and controls on advanced architecture computers

This grant provided for the demonstration of coupled controls, body dynamics, and fluids computations in a workstation cluster environment; and an investigation of the impact of peer-peer communication on flow solver performance and robustness. The findings of these investigations were documented in the conference articles.The attached publication, 'Towards Distributed Fluids/Controls Simulations', documents the solution and scaling of the coupled Navier-Stokes, Euler rigid-body dynamics, and state feedback control equations for a two-dimensional canard-wing. The poor scaling shown was due to serialized grid connectivity computation and Ethernet bandwidth limits. The scaling of a peer-to-peer communication flow code on an IBM SP-2 was also shown. The scaling of the code on the switched fabric-linked nodes was good, with a 2.4 percent loss due to communication of intergrid boundary point information. The code performance on 30 worker nodes was 1.7 (mu)s/point/iteration, or a factor of three over a Cray C-90 head. The attached paper, 'Nonlinear Fluid Computations in a Distributed Environment', documents the effect of several computational rate enhancing methods on convergence. For the cases shown, the highest throughput was achieved using boundary updates at each step, with the manager process performing communication tasks only. Constrained domain decomposition of the implicit fluid equations did not degrade the convergence rate or final solution. The scaling of a coupled body/fluid dynamics problem on an Ethernet-linked cluster was also shown.

Atwood, Christopher↗

The coupling of the troposphere and stratosphere

A linear, time-dependent, primitive-equation, 3D numerical model is used to investigate the dynamical coupling between the troposphere and stratosphere through the vertical propagation of planetry waves. Attention is given to the roles of the tropopause in affecting the propagation of planetary waves and to the extent to which the stratosphere can determine its own wave driving, i.e., the sensitivity of the generation of the wave activity in the troposphere to the change of zonal wind in the stratosphere. Two maxima in Eliassen-Palm (EP) flux convergence are found for wave 1 in high latitudes, one in the upper stratosphere and the other in the upper troposphere. For wave 2 there is a third maximum north of the zero wind line in the tropical stratosphere. The formation of the maximum in EP-flux convergence in the upper troposphere is related to the dissipation of non-WKBJ waves near a local maximum of the refractive index. The existence of the local maximum in refractive index at the tropopause is a result of the great gradient of the buoyancy frequency as well as the vertical shear of the zonal flow there.

Chen, Ping↗

Coupled Cluster Theory for Nonadiabatic Dynamics: Nuclear Gradients and Nonadiabatic Couplings in Similarity Constrained Coupled Cluster Theory

Coupled cluster theory is one of the most accurate electronic structure methods for predicting ground and excited state chemistry. However, the presence of numerical artifacts at electronic degeneracies, such as complex energies, has made it difficult to apply the method in nonadiabatic dynamics simulations. While it has already been shown that such numerical artifacts can be fully removed by using similarity constrained coupled cluster (SCC) theory [J. Phys. Chem. Lett. 2017, 8(19), 4801–4807], simulating dynamics requires efficient implementations of gradients and nonadiabatic couplings. Here, we present an implementation of nuclear gradients and nonadiabatic derivative couplings at the similarity constrained coupled cluster singles and doubles (SCCSD) level of theory, thereby making possible nonadiabatic dynamics simulations using a coupled cluster theory that provides a correct description of conical intersections between excited states. We present a few numerical examples that show good agreement with literature values and discuss some limitations of the method.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

A virtual manipulator model for space robotic systems

Future robotic manipulators carried by a spacecraft will be required to perform complex tasks in space, like repairing satellites. Such applications of robotic manipulators will encounter a number of kinematic, dynamic and control problems due to the dynamic coupling between the manipulators and the spacecraft. A new analytical modeling method for studying the kinematics and dynamics of manipulators in space is presented. The problem is treated by introducing the concept of a Virtual Manipulator (VM). The kinematic and dynamic motions of the manipulator, vehicle and payload, can be described relatively easily in terms of the Virtual Manipulator movements, which have a fixed base in inertial space at a point called a Virtual Ground. It is anticipated that the approach described here will aid in the design and development of future space manipulator systems.

Dubowsky, S.↗

Preliminary control/structure interaction study of coupled Space Station Freedom/Assembly Work Platform/orbiter

Results are presented from a preliminary control/structure interaction study of the Space Station, the Assembly Work Platform, and the STS orbiter dynamics coupled with the orbiter and station control systems. The first three Space Station assembly flight configurations and their finite element representations are illustrated. These configurations are compared in terms of control authority in each axis and propellant usage. The control systems design parameters during assembly are computed. Although the rigid body response was acceptable with the orbiter Primary Reaction Control System, the flexible body response showed large structural deflections and loads. It was found that severe control/structure interaction occurred if the stiffness of the Assembly Work Platform was equal to that of the station truss. Also, the response of the orbiter Vernier Reaction Control System to small changes in inertia properties is examined.

Singh, Sudeep K.↗

Factors Influencing Lava-Substrate Heat Transfer and Implications for Thermomechanical Erosion

We develop numerical simulations of basaltic lava flowing laminarly over a basalt substrate in order to examine the details of the lava dynamics and thermal boundary layers and to understand the implications for substrate heating. As the initial stage of a larger study of thermomechanical erosion in different planetary environments, we aim to understand why erosion occurs on Earth, why erosion features are not ubiquitous given the high temperatures involved, and whether it is a plausible mechanism for the formation of planetary channels such as lunar sinuous rilles and Venusian canali. Here we confine our attention to terrestrial lavas with well-known properties and eruption parameters. With relatively simple computational fluid dynamic simulations, most closely representing tube-fed hawaiian basalts (for which erosion has been documented), we demonstrate the importance of incorporating several key factors in models of lava flow/ substrate heat transfer, which have commonly been neglected in previous treatments. By addressing the interaction of the flow dynamics and heat transfer in the lava, our work suggests that the development of a temperature gradient in the base of the lava, even for undeveloped flow, has a significant influence on substrate temperature. The sensitivity of the lava-substrate interface temperature to the thermophysical properties of the lava and substrate suggests that a delicate balance is required for partial melting to occur. Thus, it might take weeks of continuous flow to initiate partial melting of the substrate at distances of several kilometers from the vent. These durations exceed the periods of stability typical of lava flowing in tubes; pauses, blockages, surges, and break-outs frequently disrupt the flow. However, natural irregularities in the flow dynamics or substrate topography might help to initiate and maintain substrate melting on shorter timescales by disturbing the intimately coupled dynamic and thermal boundary layers. Although a purely thermal mechanism cannot be ruled out, our findings support the premise that mechanical erosion may play a key role in reports of erosion based on field evidence.

Fagents, S. A.↗

Vibration signature analysis of multistage gear transmission

An analysis is presented for multistage multimesh gear transmission systems. The analysis predicts the overall system dynamics and the transmissibility to the gear box or the enclosed structure. The modal synthesis approach of the analysis treats the uncoupled lateral/torsional model characteristics of each stage or component independently. The vibration signature analysis evaluates the global dynamics coupling in the system. The method synthesizes the interaction of each modal component or stage with the nonlinear gear mesh dynamics and the modal support geometry characteristics. The analysis simulates transient and steady state vibration events to determine the resulting torque variations, speeds, changes, rotor imbalances, and support gear box motion excitations. A vibration signature analysis examines the overall dynamic characteristics of the system, and the individual model component responses. The gear box vibration analysis also examines the spectral characteristics of the support system.

Choy, F. K.↗

Vibration signature analysis of multistage gear transmission

An analysis is presented for multistage multimesh gear transmission systems. The analysis predicts the overall system dynamics and the transmissibility to the gear box or the enclosed structure. The modal synthesis approach of the analysis treats the uncoupled lateral/torsional model characteristics of each stage or component independently. The vibration signature analysis evaluates the global dynamics coupling in the system. The method synthesizes the interaction of each modal component or stage with the nonlinear gear mesh dynamics and the modal support geometry characteristics. The analysis simulates transient and steady state vibration events to determine the resulting torque variations, speeds, changes, rotor imbalances, and support gear box motion excitations. A vibration signature analysis examines the overall dynamic characteristics of the system, and the individual model component responses. The gear box vibration analysis also examines the spectral characteristics of the support system.

Choy, F. K.↗

Effects of Buoyancy on Laminar and Turbulent Premixed V-Flame

Turbulent combustion occurs naturally in almost all combustion systems and involves complex dynamic coupling of chemical and fluid mechanical processes. It is considered as one of the most challenging combustion research problems today. Though buoyancy has little effect on power generating systems operating under high pressures (e.g., IC engines and turbines), flames in atmospheric burners and the operation of small to medium furnaces and boilers are profoundly affected by buoyancy. Changes in burner orientation impacts on their blow-off, flash-back and extinction limits, and their range of operation, burning rate, heat transfer, and emissions. Theoretically, buoyancy is often neglected in turbulent combustion models. Yet the modeling results are routinely compared with experiments of open laboratory flames that are obviously affected by buoyancy. This inconsistency is an obstacle to reconciling experiments and theories. Consequently, a fundamental understanding of the coupling between turbulent flames and buoyancy is significant to both turbulent combustion science and applications. The overall effect of buoyancy relates to the dynamic interaction between the flame and its surrounding, i.e., the so-called elliptical problem. The overall flame shape, its flowfield, stability, and mean and local burning rates are dictated by both upstream and downstream boundary conditions. In steady propagating premixed flames, buoyancy affects the products region downstream of the flame zone. These effects are manifested upstream through the mean and fluctuating pressure fields to influence flame stretch and flame wrinkling. Intuitively, the effects buoyancy should diminish with increasing flow momentum. This is the justification for excluding buoyancy in turbulent combustion models that treats high Reynolds number flows. The objectives of our experimental research program is to elucidate flame-buoyancy coupling processes in laminar and turbulent premixed flames, and to characterize microgravity (micro g) premixed flames. The results are used to derive appropriate scaling parameters for guiding the development of theoretical models to include the effects of buoyancy. Knowledge gain from the analysis will also contribute to further understanding of the elliptical nature of premixed flames. Our current emphasis is to examine the momentum limit above which the effects of buoyancy would become insignificant. This is accomplished by comparing the flowfields and the mean properties of normal gravity flames (+g), and reversed gravity flames (-g, up-side-down flames) at different flow velocities and turbulence intensities. Microgravity (micro g) flames experiments provide the key reference data to reconcile the differences between flames in +g and -g. As flame configuration has significant impact on premixed flames characteristics we have studied axi-symmetric conical flames and plane-symmetric rod-stabilized v-flames. The two configurations produce distinct features that dictates how the flames couple with buoyancy. In a conical flame, the hot products plume completely envelopes the flame cone and shields the flame from direct interaction with the ambient air. The plume originates at the burner rim and generates a divergent flowfield. In comparison, the products region of v-flames forms between the twin flame sheets and it is convergent towards the center-plane. Interaction with ambient air is limited to the two end regions of the stabilized rod and beyond the flame sheets.

Cheng, Robert K.↗

Laser Absorption Measurements of Equivalence Ratios Studied Along With Their Coupling to Pressure Fluctuations in Lean Premixed Prevaporized (LPP) Combustion

Concerns about damaging the Earth's ozone layer as a result of high levels of nitrogen oxides (known collectively as NOx) from high-altitude, high-speed aircraft have prompted the study of lean premixed prevaporized (LPP) combustion in aircraft engines. LPP combustion reduces NOx emissions principally by reducing the peak flame temperatures inside an engine. Recent advances in LPP technologies have realized exceptional reductions in pollutant emissions (single-digit ppm NOx for example). However, LPP combustion also presents major challenges: combustion instability and dynamic coupling effects between fluctuations in heat-release rate, dynamic pressure, and fuel pressure. These challenges are formidable and can literally shake an engine apart if uncontrolled. To better understand this phenomenon so that it can be controlled, we obtained real-time laser absorption measurements of the fuel vapor concentration (and equivalence ratio) simultaneously with the dynamic pressure, flame luminosity, and time-averaged gaseous emissions measurements in a research-type jet-A-fueled LPP combustor. The measurements were obtained in NASA Glenn Research Center's CE-5B optically accessible flame tube facility. The CE-5B facility provides inlet air temperatures and pressures similar to the actual operating conditions of real aircraft engines. The laser absorption measurements were performed using an infrared 3.39 micron HeNe laser in conjunction with a visible HeNe laser for liquid droplet scattering compensation.

Nguyen, Quang-Viet↗

Multidisciplinary Dynamic Testing Challenges in Validating the NASA Artemis Architecture

NASA is in the midst of bold and exciting next steps in human exploration and spaceflight. The designs of the new Space Launch System (SLS), the Orion spacecraft and the Exploration Ground Systems (EGS) for vehicle processing and launch are essentially complete and there has been significant progress in manufacturing and assembly of specific hardware for the Artemis I and Artemis II missions. Equally as important, the program level and integrated system level testing and analyses are also well underway to support integrated verification, validation, and certificate of flight readiness (CoFR) for the first Artemis mission. Testing and analysis are key to addressing technical challenges that the Artemis missions offer. Building block approaches are required that provide the right balance between component, system, and/or element level testing that satisfies verification and validation objectives and where, uncertainties are quantified and minimized. Artemis I is a system of systems that requires a fusion of test and analysis that adeptly characterizes critical interfaces between major program elements. NASA is implementing new in-situ testing that fuse traditional aerospace structures with civil structures, such as the Integrated Modal Test for the Artemis I vehicle where the Mobile Launcher and Crawler Transporter serve as a support structure whose dynamics couple with that of the Artemis I vehicle. This new paradigm requires a closer inspection of structural behavior of the Crawler Transporter and the Mobile Launcher as they now serve multiple purposes. This requires a paradigm shift to look beyond experimental modal techniques and incorporates operational modal analysis techniques to validate dynamic models from data collected during rollout to the launch pad. A further complicating factor is the Crawler Transporter generated ground forces have numerous harmonics making extracting dynamic responses of the Artemis I, Mobile Launcher, and Crawler Transporter coupled system challenging. This discussion explores all these challenges with and attempts to understand how we best build confidence in systems and system-of-systems performance capabilities and margins and understand uncertainties.

Joel W Sills↗

Lumped Parameter Modeling for Rapid Vibration Response Prototyping and Test Correlation for Electronic Units

Present preliminary work using lumped parameter models to approximate dynamic response of electronic units to random vibration; Derive a general N-DOF model for application to electronic units; Illustrate parametric influence of model parameters; Implication of coupled dynamics for unit/board design; Demonstrate use of model to infer printed wiring board (PWB) dynamics from external chassis test measurement.

random vibration↗

Performing a Large-Scale Modal Test on the B2 Stand Crane at NASA's Stennis Space Center

A modal test of NASA's Space Launch System (SLS) Core Stage is scheduled to occur at the Stennis Space Center B2 test stand. A derrick crane with a 150-ft long boom, located at the top of the stand, will be used to suspend the Core Stage in order to achieve defined boundary conditions. During this suspended modal test, it is expected that dynamic coupling will occur between the crane and the Core Stage. Therefore, a separate modal test was performed on the B2 crane itself, in order to evaluate the varying dynamic characteristics and correlate math models of the crane. Performing a modal test on such a massive structure was challenging and required creative test setup and procedures, including implementing both AC and DC accelerometers, and performing both classical hammer and operational modal analysis. This paper describes the logistics required to perform this large-scale test, as well as details of the test setup, the modal test methods used, and an overview and application of the results.

Stasiunas, Eric C.↗