Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “cost model”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Demand Response Potential from the Bulk Grid Perspective

Gain insight from an exploration of the potential value of demand response (DR) in future power systems. Using hourly DR resource estimates by sub-sector, electrical end-use, and grid service, we incorporate virtual generator models of DR resources into large-scale production cost models, and analyze the grid-level impacts in terms of the ability of DR to reduce system costs and potentially help integrate renewables or reduce system emissions. Additionally, we examine the value of DR, its revenue, and how these change under different system conditions. In this panel session, we will describe our input data and modeling methods, provide an overview of the production cost models used, and summarize key results from analyses in Florida and the western United States. Findings include variations in DR value by end-use and geography, an ability to increase economic PV deployment potential in high penetration systems, and mixed emissions outcomes depending on system composition and fuel prices.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Role of Innovation in the Circularity of EV Lithium-Ion Batteries

This case study analysis highlights the role of innovations in EV battery design (cells, modules, and packs), reverse supply chain, and recycling processes in yielding value for the economics of recycling (and have the largest impact on the circularity of LIBs). Part of the assessment of value will be a semi-quantitative evaluation of the value of resilience in the rapidly evolving LIB market – i.e., there are a variety of risks that recyclers would face in making a financial commitment to a recycling facility including; the possibility that batteries would not be collected in sufficient quantities, the market for key constituents (e.g., cobalt) might decrease because of changes in battery chemistry, battery manufacturers may not be willing to pay as much for recycled material, etc. The analysis would be semi-quantitative in that two simple models would be used to assess 1. material flows using a previously developed excel-based reverse supply chain flows model, and 2. A LIB recycling process material and energy balance cost model that will be used to qualitatively assess the cost impacts of process innovations and changes in feed streams. Both sets of models are highly speculative in that they rely on a multitude of assumptions and input values (e.g., EV adoption rates) that vary widely in the literature. Additionally, the initial process flow diagrams and equipment lists for the recycling cost model are based on the Argonne EverBatt model, which is still under development. However, in combination with a critical review of the literature, economic modeling can yield valuable insights into the role of innovation in the circularity of LIBs and high-technology (“energy relevant”) products in general.

28 EE - Advanced Manufacturing Office (EE-5A)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Metal-Supported Ceria Electrolyte-based SOFC Stack for Scalable, Low-Cost, High-Efficiency and Robust Stationary Power Systems (Final Report)

This is the end of project report for the DOE Project DE-FE-0027844 “Metal-Supported Ceria Electrolyte-based SOFC Stack for Scalable, Low-Cost, High-Efficiency and Robust Stationary Power Systems”. The objectives of the project were to develop several technologies required for the mass adoption of Solid Oxide Fuel Cell systems for medium to large power generation applications. The key achievements of this project were: 1) Development of fuel cells with complete internal fuel reforming capability. 2) Fuel cell power scale up with production of cells with larger active areas. 3) Assembly of an integrated 5 kW modular stack platform capable of installation into medium to large power systems. 4) Demonstration of a 10 kW Fuel Cell Power System utilizing the integrated 5 kW modular stack platform. 5) Cost modelling to show system cost of $1,500/kW are achievable at production volumes. 6) Development of cathode air poison getters for reduced degradation and extended fuel cell life. 7) Assessment of fuel poison on anode degradation, particularly poisons frequently produced from the process of gasification of coal. The Cummins led Voice of Customer (VOC) work identified several significant markets for natural gas powered fuel cell systems, where the end customer is interested in reducing energy consumption and emissions, or increasing reliability of electrical supply. Data centers and truck Auxiliary Power Units (APU) were highlighted as 2 key future markets for fuel cell systems.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Inexpensive and durable aerogel-based VIP cores

The goal of this project was development of low-cost aerogels to be used as cores of Vacuum Insulated Panels (VIP). The specific aims were: 1. Aerogels to be based on phenolic chemistry to minimize flammability. 2. Aerogels to be in monolithic form and to have mechanical properties sufficient to allow their use as cores of VIPs without collapsing after evacuation. 3. Aerogels to have a cost per kg lower than the cost of fumed silica, one of the most common VIP cores. The achievements are: 1. Phenolic aerogels have been fabricated in monolithic form with thermal conductivity of 0.023 W/m·K, density ~ 0.25 g/cm 3 and a modulus of compression > 10 MPa. The aerogels can withstand the stresses of VIP evacuation without any appreciable deformation. 2. Drying of aerogels was carried in the initial stages of the project via sublimation of frozen solvents, following the procedure described in M. F. Bertino and T. Selden, “Fabrication of Aerogels and Aerogel Composites by Ambient Pressure Sublimation of Frozen Solvents”, PCT/US20/39485. Monoliths as large as 30 x 30 x 2 cm can be fabricated with the proprietary ambient fabrication technique which are free of cracks and warping. 3. Cost analysis was carried out and refined multiple times, cost drivers were identified, and the fabrication procedure was streamlined. Our cost model yields an aerogel cost of $\$$5.78/kg, which compares well with the price of fumed silica ($\$$6.2/kg FOB New York as of March 2023). 4. The monoliths can be cut into custom shapes and used as VIP cores. Cores fabricated with our technique have a thermal conductivity λ = 0.011 W/m·K at a pressure >10 mbar. 5. A variant of the technology yielded fireproof materials, described in M. F. Bertino, T. Moon, G. Waller, J. Ko and D. Clifford, “Fireproof thermal insulation”, Provisional Patent Application 63/415,386. 6. A spin-off company was created (ThermaGel Innovations, Inc.) which licensed technologies developed under this award. PI Bertino is a board member of the newco which is now raising capital to build a pilot plant.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multiscale Electricity Modeling for Evaluating Carbon Capture and Sequestration Technologies (Final Report)

Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies that can operate with a high degree of operating flexibility could provide necessary electric grid flexibility in a system with high shares of variable renewables. This project examines the deployment and dispatch potential of twelve unique flexible CCS (FLECCS) technologies that encompass post-combustion carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) capture designs, concepts using a storage media to enable energy arbitrage, and hybrid processes that integrate CCS with direct air capture (DAC) for flexibility with net zero or negative CO 2 emissions. FLECCS technology potential is explored with a multi-model, multi-scale framework including the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electric sector capacity expansion model (CEM) and the PLEXOS production cost model (PCM). Innovative methods were developed to represent FLECCS technology operating modes, performance, and cost in the two models. ReEDS was then used to simulate nine scenarios for each FLECCS technology, three CO 2 emissions price futures reaching $\$$150, $\$$225, and $\$$300/tCO 2 in 2050; and three scenarios for FLECCS technology deployment favorability relative to competing technologies. For each CO 2 price and reference FLECCS favorability, the 2050 infrastructures from ReEDS model are downscaled and implemented in PLEXOS to examine hourly dispatch under detailed operational constraints that are not included in ReEDS. FLECCS technologies exhibited a wide range of deployment potential ranging from none to several hundred gigawatts of capacity, with outcomes highly sensitive to input cost and performance parameters that are inherently highly uncertain. When deployed, FLECCS tended to displace a combination of wind, solar, and natural gas-based technologies rather than supporting increased renewable deployment. As a result, CO 2 emissions reductions facilitated by FLECCS deployment tended to come with higher overall system costs and electricity prices. When economically competitive, FLECCS technologies can contribute significant flexible generation and firm capacity to the grid, but continued technology development and an expanded analytical scope are necessary to fully understand FLECCS deployment potential its impact on the electric power sector. Follow-on analysis incorporating captured CO 2 tax credit value from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and other potential policy scenarios could be particularly valuable, as this policy can substantially change the relative competitiveness of FLECCS technologies.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Technoeconomic optimization of superalloy supercritical CO 2 microtube shell-and-tube-heat exchangers

Heat exchangers are critical components of aerospace systems and improve efficiency of operation by providing waste heat recovery. Supercritical CO has emerged as a promising candidate working fluid due to its potential in increasing the power density of heat exchangers. In this paper, a generalized costing model is developed to estimate the capital costs incurred to manufacture microtube shell-and-tube heat exchangers. This model is utilized in conjunction with an accurate and efficient 2D numerical shell-and-tube heat exchanger performance prediction model to conduct optimization studies with two key objectives – minimization of cost and maximization of heat exchanger power density – on supercritical CO microtube heat exchangers utilizing superalloy Haynes 282 as the solid material. A methodology is then demonstrated to optimize these heat exchangers using Particle Swarm Optimization for aerospace applications and highly compact and cost-effective optimal designs with power density around 20 and cost per conductance less than 5 $ ∙ K/W are obtained.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Pumped Storage Hydropower Resource and Deployment Potential

There is growing interest in deploying new pumped storage hydropower (PSH) to meet grid needs for flexibility, reliability, and resiliency. This presentation describes how NLR resource assessment, cost modeling, and capacity expansion modeling are used to identify technical and economic PSH deployment potential and support industry decision-making on PSH investments. NLR's open data and tools demonstrate the vast technical potential of PSH on the order of 80 TW, and modeling shows economic PSH deployment under an attractive cost-value proposition.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Impact of climate change on water availability and its propagation through the Western U.S. power grid

Climate impact assessment for power systems has tended to focus on the effects of water availability on generation without explicitly considering how these impacts propagate through the interconnected grid to affect generation in other locations. We investigate the impact of projected water availability on the operations of the contemporary Western U.S. power grid, focusing specifically on regional interdependencies. Hydrologic simulations derived from three GCMs (CCSM4, INMCM4 and GFDL-CM3) and two radiative scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are used to force a large-scale, distributed water management model (MOSART-WM), which translates water availability into power generation constraints at hydropower plants and water-dependent thermo-electric plants. Power system dynamics are evaluated using the production cost model PLEXOS. We find that the inter-regional connections across the Western U.S. electricity infrastructure are key in managing drastic variations in regional water availability. Net generation in the Northwest and Northern California is substantially sensitive to local water availability. Generation from the Desert Southwest emerges as a critical resource to compensate for variations in water availability in those regions. Climate change impacts on Northwestern water availability therefore drive future changes in other regions’ generation and regional power flows. The large inter-annual hydrological variability of Northern California exacerbates grid stress arising from long-term changes in water availability in the Northwest. While the regional power flow directions seem insensitive to long-term variations in water availability, the analysis highlights the need to consider other compounding regional factors such as changes in Southern California net load or changes in regional fuel prices.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development and Integration of Predictive Models for Manufacturing and Structural Performance of Carbon Fiber Composites in Automotive Applications (Final Report)

The goal of this project is to develop integrated, state-of-the-art, computational modeling tools based on an integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) methodology that are critically needed to enable structural carbon fiber (CF) applications in automobiles. These tools are designed to predict the manufacturing and structural performance of CF composites, including stochastic effects. During the first phase of the project, the manufacturing and structural performance tools, including a stochastic driver, were developed, calibrated, and validated against coupon and component level test results. For this project, from the manufacturing side, the development efforts were focused on high-pressure resin transfer molding (HP-RTM), a potentially game-changing manufacturing technology that is capable of reaching the 3-5-minute cycle time that is necessary for volume manufacturing of composites. On the structural performance side, the crashworthiness of CF structures was studied. Accordingly, computational tools were developed and validated. The resulting differences between the numerical predictions and the experimental results in the first phase of the project were required to be less than 15%. During the second phase of the project, the manufacturing and performance tools were integrated by mapping the manufacturing outcomes (e.g., fiber angles, residual stresses, degree of cure, and defects) into the structural models. Also, using the tools developed in this project, an automotive assembly currently manufactured in steel (2016 GM Malibu) was redesigned to be manufactured using advanced CF composites with the objective of comparing the performance of the CF assembly with the developed ICME model predictions. The weight, performance and cost of the CF assembly were compared with the baseline steel assembly as well. The CF underbody design was shown to be 30% lighter than the corresponding steel design. The CF underbody assembly withstood the side pole impact with less than half the intrusion for the steel assembly. Excellent correlations within 10% for both peak impact load and intrusion were observed between the numerical predictions and experimental results. Based on the cost models developed in the project, the cost increase per Kg saved was determined to be $22. The project team has prepared a total of 28 publications in various journals and conferences and broadly communicated the project results for the benefit of the composite industry. The project team has also prepared a total of 10 patent applications that were submitted to the US Patent and Trademark office.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling and simulation to investigate the electrification potential of medium- and heavy-duty vehicle fleets

This project involves developing and integrating new modeling tools to simulate the dynamics of electric medium- and heavy-duty fleet vehicle adoption. A technical and economic modeling tool, combining a data-driven hardware cost model with a cost-optimal charging strategy microsimulation, enables tailored analysis of the costs and benefits of electrifying individual fleets. Next, a novel text synthesis process, applied to a curated corpus of literature, quantifies trade-offs between technical, economic, and other factors in the fleet vehicle procurement decision. The outcomes of these tasks combine with knowledge from recent literature on fleet decision processes to specify the vehicle procurement model used by fleets in an agent-based model of the medium- and heavy-duty electric vehicle market. This model embodies an especially disaggregated approach to adoption modeling, internalizing factors and dynamics that conventional adoption models externalize. In particular, explicitly modeling the formation and diffusion of opinions among agents enables experiments that conventional models cannot support. Demonstrations show, for example, that increasing the extent of interactions between populations with different proclivities to electric vehicles has an asymmetrical outcome. High-proclivity electric vehicle adoption is generally unaffected as interactions increase, but low-proclivity adoption is accelerated. By representing individual fleets' requirements and costs at a high level of detail, incorporating an adoption decision model informed by a wide body of empirical research, and broadening the array of variables and dynamics available for experimentation, this integrated model offers a new way to understand the urgent challenge of eliminating emissions from the most emissions-intensive transportation sectors.

Trinko, David A.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Cost of Using Laser Powder Bed Fusion to Fabricate a Molten Salt-to-Supercritial Carbon Dioxide Heat Exchanger for Concentrating Solar Power

Advances in manufacturing technologies and materials are crucial to the commercial deployment of energy technologies. We present the case of concentrating solar power (CSP) with molten salt (MS) thermal storage, where low-cost, high-efficiency heat exchangers (HXs) are needed to achieve cost competitiveness. Here, the materials required to tolerate the extreme operating conditions in CSP systems make it difficult or infeasible to produce them using conventional manufacturing processes. Although it is technically possible to produce HXs with adequate performance using additive manufacturing, specifically laser powder bed fusion (LPBF), here we assess whether doing so is cost-effective. We describe a process-based cost model (PBCM) to estimate the cost of fabricating a MS-to-supercritical carbon dioxide HX using LPBF. The PBCM is designed to identify modifications to designs, process choices, and manufacturing innovations that have the greatest effect on manufacturing cost. Our PBCM identified HX design and LPBF process modifications that reduced projected HX cost from $\$750$ per kilo-Watt thermal (kW-th) ($\$8$ /cm 3 ) to $\$350$ /kW-th ($\$6/$ cm 3 ) using currently available LPBF technology, and down to $\$220$ /kW-th ($\$4$ /cm 3 ) with improvements in LPBF technology that are likely to be achieved in the near term. The PBCM also informed a redesign of the HX design that reduced projected costs to $\$140$ –160/kW-th ($\$3$ /cm 3 ).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Benefit Analysis of Long-Duration Energy Storage in Power Systems with High Renewable Energy Shares

The integration of high shares of variable renewable energy raises challenges for the reliability and cost-effectiveness of power systems. The value of long-duration energy storage, which helps address variability in renewable energy supply across days and seasons, is poised to grow significantly as power systems shift to larger shares of variable generation such as wind and solar. This study explores the system-level services and associated benefits of long-duration energy storage on the 2050 Western Interconnection (WI). The operation of the future WI system with 85% renewable penetration is simulated using a two-stage production cost model. The impact of long duration energy storage on systemwide operations is examined for the 2050 WI system, using a range of round-trip efficiencies corresponding to four different energy storage technologies. The analysis projects the energy storage dispatch profile, system-wide production cost savings (from both diurnal and seasonal operation), and impacts on generation mix, and change in renewable generation curtailment.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Rapid Open-Air Processing of Low-Cost Perovskite Solar Modules

We report an industrially relevant approach to both scalable and fast open-air perovskite photovoltaic (PV) module production. This work resolves some of the most formidable barriers to module-level scaling that the perovskite community has been facing. Key advances include scalable large-area spray deposition, new monolithic integration scribing techniques, advanced photoluminescence characterization, and reproducible high-throughput manufacturability. Our rapid spray processing techniques enabled the highest perovskite PV efficiency produced in open-air. Innovations in scribing techniques enabled the first single-source laser process to achieve perovskite module monolithic integration and technoeconomic analysis led to a comprehensive cost model for perovskite module manufacturing. We report significant progress in reducing perovskite manufacturing costs necessary to potentially compete with incumbent Si-based PV for utility-scale power generation.

cost modeling↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Costs and Feasibility of Floating Offshore Wind Energy in the O'ahu Region

The State of Hawai'i has set a target to achieve a 100% Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) by 2045, and is well suited to become the first state to achieve this goal due to its relatively small load, high electricity prices, heavy reliance on imported fossil fuels, and favorable conditions for wind and solar. The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management contracted NREL to conduct a cost and feasibility study to provide information to decision makers on Hawai'i about the viability of floating offshore wind to be a part of the 100% RPS. We used NREL's Offshore Regional Cost Analyzer (ORCA) spatial cost model to evaluate the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) in the region surrounding O'ahu as this is the island with the highest energy demand. The ORCA results showed that LCOE could range from around $\$$83 MWh to $\$$194 MWh for commercial operation dates in 2019 but has the potential to decrease to $\$$48 MWh - $\$$109 MWh by 2032 due to maturing global supply chains, increasing turbine rating, and new technological innovations. These costs are expected to be competitive with global floating wind costs in the early 2030s. The strong wind resource, proximity to infrastructure on land, and benign metocean conditions can potentially compensate for the logistical complexities of installing projects in Hawai'i far from mainland supply chains if sufficient investments are made to develop ports, grid infrastructure, and workforce on O'ahu to support the construction and operation of offshore wind projects. In addition to the cost results, this report also discusses the likely technologies that would comprise floating wind projects near O'ahu, the existing infrastructure available to projects, unique conditions facing offshore wind in the region such as exposure to hurricanes and limits on allowable export cable capacity, newly developed wind resource data sets for the region, and local stakeholder perspectives on offshore wind.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impacts of Alternative Operations and Renewable Energy Deployment on Columbia River Hydropower

The Columbia River Treaty Tribes in the Pacific Northwest - the Nez Perce, Umatilla, Warm Springs, and Yakama - hold treaty-reserved fishing rights for the Columbia River, one of the world's most productive salmon rivers and a critical resource for these tribes. However, the tribes have expressed that current operating regimes of hydropower dams throughout the Columbia River Basin (CRB) do not fully account for tribal fishing rights and have negatively impacted fish populations. Four tribes acting together through the Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission (CRITFC)'s 2022 Energy Vision stated that current power system models often do not fully account for the many constraints faced by hydropower facilities in the CRB. As the deployment of variable renewable energy (VRE) like solar and wind continues to increase, power system flexibility will become increasingly important. As a result, there is a growing need to better understand the true capabilities of the hydropower generation fleet while accurately accounting for ecological constraints (Northwest Power and Conservation Council 2022). Understanding hydropower's role in a future grid with a higher share of VRE can inform water resources planning to address ecological needs. The goal of this study is to examine the impacts of alternative hydropower operation rules and weather variability on hydropower generation and grid operations in VRE and transmission infrastructure deployment scenarios. The study evaluates how hydropower scheduling practices can reduce ecological impacts to the region's salmon populations. More specifically, the study examines the impact of today's dam water release rules (called "adjusted base water rules" in this study) and new, ecologically informed water release rules (called "ecosystem water rules" in this study) on two VRE scenarios (current renewable energy levels and higher renewable energy levels) using six weather years for each scenario (2008-2013). CRITFC developed the ecosystem water rules, which capture a portion of the changes they recommend for CRB hydropower operations. These analyses use a water resource planning model (OASIS) and a production cost model (PLEXOS) to simulate CRB reservoir cascade and Western Interconnection power grid operation.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗