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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1994

Testing the gravitational instability hypothesis?

We challenge a widely accepted assumption of observational cosmology: that successful reconstruction of observed galaxy density fields from measured galaxy velocity fields (or vice versa), using the methods of gravitational instability theory, implies that the observed large-scale structures and large-scale flows were produced by the action of gravity. This assumption is false, in that there exist nongravitational theories that pass the reconstruction tests and gravitational theories with certain forms of biased galaxy formation that fail them. Gravitational instability theory predicts specific correlations between large-scale velocity and mass density fields, but the same correlations arise in any model where (a) structures in the galaxy distribution grow from homogeneous initial conditions in a way that satisfies the continuity equation, and (b) the present-day velocity field is irrotational and proportional to the time-averaged velocity field. We demonstrate these assertions using analytical arguments and N-body simulations. If large-scale structure is formed by gravitational instability, then the ratio of the galaxy density contrast to the divergence of the velocity field yields an estimate of the density parameter Omega (or, more generally, an estimate of beta identically equal to Omega(exp 0.6)/b, where b is an assumed constant of proportionality between galaxy and mass density fluctuations. In nongravitational scenarios, the values of Omega or beta estimated in this way may fail to represent the true cosmological values. However, even if nongravitational forces initiate and shape the growth of structure, gravitationally induced accelerations can dominate the velocity field at late times, long after the action of any nongravitational impulses. The estimated beta approaches the true value in such cases, and in our numerical simulations the estimated beta values are reasonably accurate for both gravitational and nongravitational models. Reconstruction tests that show correlations between galaxy density and velocity fields can rule out some physically interesting models of large-scale structure. In particular, successful reconstructions constrain the nature of any bias between the galaxy and mass distributions, since processes that modulate the efficiency of galaxy formation on large scales in a way that violates the continuity equation also produce a mismatch between the observed galaxy density and the density inferred from the peculiar velocity field. We obtain successful reconstructions for a gravitational model with peaks biasing, but we also show examples of gravitational and nongravitational models that fail reconstruction tests because of more complicated modulations of galaxy formation.

Babul, Arif↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dark energy survey year 3 results: likelihood-free, simulation-based w CDM inference with neural compression of weak-lensing map statistics

We present simulation-based cosmological wcold dark matter (wCDM) inference using dark energy survey year 3 weak-lensing maps, via neural data compression of weak-lensing map summary statistics: power spectra, peak counts, and direct map-level compression/inference with convolutional neural networks (CNN). Using simulation-based inference, also known as likelihood-free or implicit inference, we use forward-modelled mock data to estimate posterior probability distributions of unknown parameters. This approach allows all statistical assumptions and uncertainties to be propagated through the forward-modelled mock data; these include sky masks, non-Gaussian shape noise, shape measurement bias, source galaxy clustering, photometric redshift uncertainty, intrinsic galaxy alignments, non-Gaussian density fields, neutrinos, and non-linear summary statistics. We include a series of tests to validate our inference results. This paper also describes the Gower Street simulation suite: 791 full-sky pkdgrav3 dark matter simulations, with cosmological model parameters sampled with a mixed active-learning strategy, from which we construct over 3000 mock dark energy survey lensing data sets. For wCDM inference, for which we allow –1 < w < –$\frac{1}{3}$⁠, our most constraining result uses power spectra combined with map-level (CNN) inference. Using gravitational lensing data only, this map-level combination gives Ω m = 0.283$^{+0.020}_{–0.027}$⁠, S 8 = 0.804$^{+0.025}_{–0.017⁠}$, and w < –0.80 (with a 68 per cent credible interval); compared to the power spectrum inference, this is more than a factor of two improvement in dark energy parameter (Ω⁠ DE , w⁠) precision.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Optimal filters for the moving lens effect

We assess the prospects for detecting the moving lens effect using cosmological surveys. The bulk motion of cosmological structure induces a small-scale dipolar temperature anisotropy of the cosmic microwave radiation, centered around halos and oriented along the transverse velocity field. We introduce a set of optimal filters for this signal and forecast that a high significance detection can be made with upcoming experiments. We discuss the prospects for reconstructing the bulk transverse velocity field on large scales using matched filters, finding good agreement with previous work using quadratic estimators.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Systematic study of projection biases in weak lensing analysis

We present a systematic study of projection biases in the weak lensing analysis of the first year of data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) experiment. In the analysis we used a $\Lambda$CDM model and three two-point correlation functions. We show that these biases are a consequence of projecting, or marginalizing, over parameters like $h$, $\Omega_b$, $n_s$ and $\Omega_\nu h^2$ that are both poorly constrained and correlated with the parameters of interest like $\Omega_m$, $\sigma_8$ and $S_8$. Covering the relevant parameter space we show that the projection biases are a function of where the true values of the poorly constrained parameters lie with respect to the parameter priors. For example, biases in the position of the posteriors can exceed the 1.5$\sigma$ level if the true values of $h$ and $n_s$ are close to the top of the prior's range and the true values of $\Omega_b$ and $\Omega_\nu h^2$ are close to the bottom of the range of their priors. We also show that in some cases the 1D credible intervals can be over-specified by as much as 30% and coverage can be as low as 27%. Finally we estimate these projection biases for the analysis of three and six years worth of DES data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Searching for cosmological stochastic backgrounds by notching out resolvable compact binary foregrounds with next-generation gravitational-wave detectors

Stochastic gravitational-wave backgrounds can be of either cosmological or astrophysical origin. The detection of an astrophysical stochastic gravitational-wave background with ground-based interferometers is expected in the near future. Perhaps even more excitingly, the detection of stochastic backgrounds of cosmological origin by future ground-based interferometers could reveal invaluable information about the early Universe. From this perspective, the astrophysical background is a foreground that can prevent the extraction of this information from the data. In this paper, we revisit a time-frequency domain notching procedure previously proposed to remove the astrophysical foreground in the context of next-generation ground-based detectors, but we consider the more realistic scenario where we remove individually detectable signals by taking into account the uncertainty in the estimation of their parameters. We find that time-frequency domain masks can still efficiently remove the astrophysical foreground and suppress it to about 5% of its original level. Further removal of the foreground formed by unresolvable events (in particular, unresolvable binary neutron stars), which is about 10 times larger than the residual foreground from realistic notching, would require detector sensitivity improvements. Therefore, the main limitation in the search for a cosmological background is the unresolvable foreground itself, and not the residual of the notching procedure.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Searching for cosmological stochastic backgrounds by notching out resolvable compact binary foregrounds with next-generation gravitational-wave detectors

Stochastic gravitational-wave backgrounds can be of either cosmological or astrophysical origin. The detection of an astrophysical stochastic gravitational-wave background with ground-based interferometers is expected in the near future. Perhaps even more excitingly, the detection of stochastic backgrounds of cosmological origin by future ground-based interferometers could reveal invaluable information about the early Universe. From this perspective, the astrophysical background is a {\it foreground} that can prevent the extraction of this information from the data. In this paper, we revisit a time-frequency domain notching procedure previously proposed to remove the astrophysical foreground in the context of next-generation ground-based detectors, but we consider the more realistic scenario where we remove individually detectable signals by taking into account the uncertainty in the estimation of their parameters. We find that time-frequency domain masks can still efficiently remove the astrophysical foreground and suppress it to about $5\%$ of its original level. Further removal of the foreground formed by unresolvable events (in particular, unresolvable binary neutron stars), which is about $10$ times larger than the residual foreground from realistic notching, would require detector sensitivity improvements. Therefore, the main limitation in the search for a cosmological background is the unresolvable foreground itself, and not the residual of the notching procedure.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS2008

Using Black Hole Mergers to Explore Structure Formation

Observations of gravitational waves from massive black hole mergers will open a new window into the era of structure formation in the early universe. Past efforts have concentrated on calculating merger rates using different physical assumptions, resulting in merger rate estimates that span a wide range (0.1 - 1 0A4 mergers/year). We develop a semi-analytical, phenomenological model of massive black hole mergers that includes plausible combinations of several physical parameters, which we then turn around to determine how well observations with the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) will be able to enhance our understanding of the universe during the critical z approx. 5 - 30 epoch. Our approach involves generating synthetic LISA observable data (total BH masses, BH mass ratios, redshifts, merger rates), which are then analyzed using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method, thus finding constraints for the physical parameters of the mergers. We find that our method works well at estimating merger parameters and that the number of merger events is a key discriminant among models, therefore making our method robust against observational uncertainties. Our approach can also be extended to more physically-driven models and more general problems in cosmology.

Alicea-Munoz, E.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Using Black Hole Mergers to Explore Structure Formation

Observations of gravitational waves from massive black hole mergers will open a new window into the era of structure formation in the early universe. Past efforts have concentrated on calculating merger rates using different physical assumptions, resulting in merger rate estimates that span a wide range (0.1 - 10(exp 4) mergers/year). We develop a semi-analytical, phenomenological model of massive black hole mergers that includes plausible combinations of several physical parameters, which we then turn around to determine how well observations with the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) will be able to enhance our understanding of the universe during the critical z approximately equal to 5-30 epoch. Our approach involves generating synthetic LISA observable data (total BH masses, BH mass ratios, redshifts, merger rates), which are then analyzed using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method, thus finding constraints for the physical parameters of the mergers. We find that our method works well at estimating merger parameters and that the number of merger events is a key discriminant among models, therefore making our method robust against observational uncertainties. Our approach can also be extended to more physically-driven models and more general problems in cosmology. This work is supported in part by the Cooperative Education Program at NASA/GSFC.

Alicea-Munoz, E.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dark Energy Survey Year 1 Results: Cosmological constraints from cluster abundances and weak lensing

In this work we perform a joint analysis of the counts and weak lensing signal of redMaPPer clusters selected from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 1 dataset. Our analysis uses the same shear and source photometric redshifts estimates as were used in the DES combined probes analysis. Our analysis results in surprisingly low values for $S_8 =\sigma_8(\Omega_{\rm m}/0.3)^{0.5}= 0.65\pm 0.04$, driven by a low matter density parameter, $\Omega_{\rm m}=0.179^{+0.031}_{-0.038}$, with $\sigma_8-\Omega_{\rm m}$ posteriors in $2.4\sigma$ tension with the DES Y1 3x2pt results, and in $5.6\sigma$ with the Planck CMB analysis. These results include the impact of post-unblinding changes to the analysis, which did not improve the level of consistency with other data sets compared to the results obtained at the unblinding. The fact that multiple cosmological probes (supernovae, baryon acoustic oscillations, cosmic shear, galaxy clustering and CMB anisotropies), and other galaxy cluster analyses all favor significantly higher matter densities suggests the presence of systematic errors in the data or an incomplete modeling of the relevant physics. Cross checks with X-ray and microwave data, as well as independent constraints on the observable--mass relation from SZ selected clusters, suggest that the discrepancy resides in our modeling of the weak lensing signal rather than the cluster abundance. Repeating our analysis using a higher richness threshold ($\lambda \ge 30$) significantly reduces the tension with other probes, and points to one or more richness-dependent effects not captured by our model.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS2014

Precision Epoch of Reionization Studies with Next-Generation CMB Experiments

Future arcminute resolution polarization data from ground-based Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) observations can be used to estimate the contribution to the temperature power spectrum from the primary anisotropies and to uncover the signature of reionization near l = 1500 in the small angular-scale temperature measurements. Our projections are based on combining expected small-scale E-mode polarization measurements from Advanced ACTPol in the range 300 < l < 3000 with simulated temperature data from the full Planck mission in the low and intermediate l region, 2 < l < 2000. We show that the six basic cosmological parameters determined from this combination of data will predict the underlying primordial temperature spectrum at high multipoles to better than 1% accuracy. Assuming an efficient cleaning from multi-frequency channels of most foregrounds in the temperature data, we investigate the sensitivity to the only residual secondary component, the kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (kSZ) term. The CMB polarization is used to break degeneracies between primordial and secondary terms present in temperature and, in effect, to remove from the temperature data all but the residual kSZ term. We estimate a 15 sigma detection of the di use homogeneous kSZ signal from expected AdvACT temperature data at l > 1500, leading to a measurement of the amplitude of matter density fluctuations, sigma 8, at 1% precision.

Precision↗
DOE OSTI2023

DES Y3 + KiDS-1000: Consistent cosmology combining cosmic shear surveys

We present a joint cosmic shear analysis of the Dark Energy Survey (DES Y3) and the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS-1000) in a collaborative effort between the two survey teams. We find consistent cosmological parameter constraints between DES Y3 and KiDS-1000 which, when combined in a joint-survey analysis, constrain the parameter $S_8 = \sigma_8 \sqrt{\Omega_{\rm m}/0.3}$ with a mean value of $0.790^{+0.018}_{-0.014}$. The mean marginal is lower than the maximum a posteriori estimate, $S_8=0.801$, owing to skewness in the marginal distribution and projection effects in the multi-dimensional parameter space. Our results are consistent with $S_8$ constraints from observations of the cosmic microwave background by Planck, with agreement at the $1.7\sigma$ level. We use a Hybrid analysis pipeline, defined from a mock survey study quantifying the impact of the different analysis choices originally adopted by each survey team. We review intrinsic alignment models, baryon feedback mitigation strategies, priors, samplers and models of the non-linear matter power spectrum.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Standard Siren Measurement of the Hubble Constant Using Gravitational-wave Events from the First Three LIGO/Virgo Observing Runs and the DESI Legacy Survey

We present a new constraint on the Hubble constant H 0 using a sample of well-localized gravitational-wave (GW) events detected during the first three LIGO/Virgo observing runs as dark standard sirens. In the case of dark standard sirens, a unique host galaxy is not identified, and the redshift information comes from the distribution of potential host galaxies. From the third LIGO/Virgo observing run detections, we add the asymmetric-mass binary black hole GW190412 and the high-confidence GW candidates S191204r, S200129m, and S200311bg to the sample of dark standard sirens analyzed in Palmese et al. Our sample contains the top 20% (based on localization) GW events and candidates to date with significant coverage by the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Legacy Survey. We combine the H 0 posterior for eight dark siren events, finding H 0 = $79.8^{+19.1}_{-12.8}$ km s -1 Mpc -1 (68% highest density interval) for a prior in H 0 uniform between [20, 140] km s -1 Mpc -1 . This result shows that a combination of eight well-localized dark sirens combined with an appropriate galaxy catalog is able to provide an H 0 constraint that is competitive (~20% versus 18% precision) with a single bright standard siren analysis (i.e., assuming the electromagnetic counterpart) using GW170817. When combining the posterior with that from GW170817, we obtain H 0 = $72.77^{+11.0}_{-7.55}$ km s -1 Mpc -1 . This result is broadly consistent with recent H 0 estimates from both the cosmic microwave background and supernovae.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data compression and covariance matrix inspection: Cosmic shear

Covariance matrices are among the most difficult pieces of end-to-end cosmological analyses. In principle, for two-point functions, each component involves a four-point function, and the resulting covariance often has hundreds of thousands of elements. We investigate various compression mechanisms capable of vastly reducing the size of the covariance matrix in the context of cosmic shear statistics. This helps identify which of its parts are most crucial to parameter estimation. We start with simple compression methods, by isolating and “removing” 200 modes associated with the lowest eigenvalues, then those with the lowest signal-to-noise ratio, before moving on to more sophisticated schemes like compression at the tomographic level and, finally, with the massively optimized parameter estimation and data compression (MOPED). We find that, while most of these approaches prove useful for a few parameters of interest, like Ω m , the simplest yield a loss of constraining power on the intrinsic alignment (IA) parameters as well as S 8 . For the case considered—cosmic shear from the first year of data from the Dark Energy Survey—only MOPED was able to replicate the original constraints in the 16-parameter space. Finally, we apply a tolerance test to the elements of the compressed covariance matrix obtained with MOPED and confirm that the IA parameter A IA is the most susceptible to inaccuracies in the covariance matrix.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Angular systematics-free cosmological analysis of galaxy clustering in configuration space

ABSTRACT Galaxy redshift surveys are subject to incompleteness and inhomogeneous sampling due to the various constraints inherent to spectroscopic observations. This can introduce systematic errors on the summary statistics of interest, which need to be mitigated in cosmological analysis to achieve high accuracy. Standard practices involve applying weighting schemes based on completeness estimates across the survey footprint, possibly supplemented with additional weighting schemes accounting for density-dependent effects. In this work, we concentrate on pure angular systematics and describe an alternative approach consisting in analysing the galaxy two-point correlation function where angular modes are nulled. By construction, this procedure removes all possible known and unknown sources of angular observational systematics, but also part of the cosmological signal. We use a modified Landy–Szalay estimator for the two-point correlation function that relies on an additional random catalogue where angular positions are randomly drawn from the galaxy catalogue, and provide an analytical model to describe this modified statistic. We test the model by performing an analysis of the full anisotropic clustering in mock catalogues of luminous red and emission-line galaxies at 0.43 < z < 1.1. We find that the model fully accounts for the modified correlation function in redshift space, without introducing new nuisance parameters. The derived cosmological parameters from the analysis of baryon acoustic oscillations and redshift-space distortions display slightly larger statistical uncertainties, mostly for the growth rate of structure parameter fσ8 that exhibits a $50{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ statistical error increase, but free from angular systematic error.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cosmological parameter forecasts for a CMB-HD survey

We present forecasts on cosmological parameters for a CMB-HD survey. For a $\Lambda$CDM + $N_{eff}$ + $\sum m_\nu$ model, we find $\sigma(n_s) = 0.0013$ and $\sigma(N_{eff}) = 0.014$ using CMB and CMB lensing multipoles in the range of $\ell \in [30, 20000]$, after adding anticipated residual foregrounds, delensing the acoustic peaks, and adding DESI BAO data. This is about a factor of two improvement in ability to probe inflation via $n_s$ compared to precursor CMB surveys. The $N_{eff}$ constraint can rule out light thermal particles back to the end of inflation with 95% CL; for example, it can rule out the QCD axion in a model-independent way assuming the Universe's reheating temperature was high enough that the axion thermalized. We find that delensing the acoustic peaks and adding DESI BAO tightens parameter constraints. We also find that baryonic effects can bias parameters if not marginalized over, and that uncertainties in baryonic effects can increase parameter error bars; however, the latter can be mitigated by including information about baryonic effects from kinetic and thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich measurements by CMB-HD. The CMB-HD likelihood and Fisher estimation codes used here are publicly available; the likelihood is integrated with Cobaya to facilitate parameter forecasting.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Using elliptical galaxy kinematics to compare the strength of gravity in cosmological regions of differing gravitational potential – a first look

ABSTRACT Various models of modified gravity invoke ‘screening’ mechanisms that are sensitive to the value of the local gravitational potential. This could have observable consequences for galaxies. These consequences might be seen by comparing two proxies for galaxy mass – their luminosity and their internal kinematics – as a function of local galaxy density. Motivated by this prospect, we have compared the observed properties of luminous red galaxies (LRGs) inside and outside of voids in the cosmic large scale structure. We used archival measurements of line widths, luminosities, redshifts, colours, and positions of galaxies in conjunction with recent void catalogues to construct comparison LRG samples inside and outside of voids. We fitted these two samples to the well-established fundamental plane of elliptical galaxies to constrain any differences between the inferred value of the Newtonian gravitational constant G for the two samples. We obtained a null result, with an upper limit on any fractional difference in G within and outside of cosmological voids to be α = δG/G ∼ 40 per cent. This upper bound is dominated by the small-number statistics of our N ∼ 100 within-void LRG sample. With the caveat that environmental effects could influence various parameters such as star formation, we estimate that a 1 per cent statistical limit on α could be attained with data from 105 elliptical galaxies within voids. This is within the reach of future photometric and spectroscopic surveys, both of which are required to pursue this method.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

TARDIS. II. Synergistic Density Reconstruction from Lyα Forest and Spectroscopic Galaxy Surveys with Applications to Protoclusters and the Cosmic Web

Looking at this work, we expand upon the Tomographic Absorption Reconstruction and Density Inference Scheme (TARDIS) in order to include multiple tracers while reconstructing matter density fields at Cosmic Noon (z ~ 2–3). In particular, we jointly reconstruct the underlying density field from simulated Lyα forest observations at z ~ 2.5 and an overlapping galaxy survey. We find that these data are synergistic, with the Lyα forest providing reconstruction of low-density regions and galaxy surveys tracing the density peaks. We find a more accurate power spectra reconstruction going to higher scales when fitting these two data sets simultaneously than when using either one individually. When applied to cosmic web analysis, we find that performing the joint analysis is equivalent to an Lγα survey with significantly increased sight-line spacing. Because we reconstruct the velocity field and matter field jointly, we demonstrate the ability to evolve the mock observed volume further to z = 0, allowing us to create a rigorous definition of a “protocluster” as regions that will evolve into clusters. We apply our reconstructions to study protocluster structure and evolution, finding for realistic survey parameters that we can provide accurate mass estimates of the z ≈ 2 structures and their z = 0 fate.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Alleviating prior dependencies for DESI DR1 clustering fits through reparameterization

Bayesian analyses of the full-shape clustering of Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Data Release 1 (DR1) exhibit prior-volume projection effects, whereby weakly constrained nuisance parameters of the Effective Field Theory of Large Scale Structure (EFTofLSS) shift marginalized cosmological posteriors away from the posterior maximum. We reanalyze DESI DR1 power spectrum multipoles using two complementary mitigation strategies: (i) nonlinear orthogonalization to decorrelate nuisance and cosmological parameter priors, and (ii) a fully reparameterization-invariant Jeffreys prior over all EFTofLSS coefficients, evaluated on-the-fly via closed-form Jacobians. Including data from DESI, Big-Bang Nuclesynthesis and a constraint on $n_{\mathrm{s}}$, baseline priors lead to multi-$σ$ projection in the Hubble parameter $H_{0}$ and dark energy equation of state parameters $w_{0}$ and $w_{a}$; the Jeffreys prior successfully recenters these posteriors to enclose the maximum a posteriori estimate within the 68% credible regions, demonstrating clear mitigation of projection effects for these late-time expansion parameters. A hybrid Jeffreys+baseline-Gaussian configuration controls residual over-broad tails in the physical cold dark matter density $ω_{\mathrm{c}}$ while preserving the volume correction, and is our favoured approach. We compare the credible intervals derived using our methodology to those obtained using Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD)-informed priors and to confidence intervals derived using frequentist profile likelihood analyses, finding agreement in both central values and degeneracy directions in the $w_{0}$--$w_{a}$ plane. This demonstrates that, once projection effects are properly controlled, we can make robust inferences about the late-time cosmological expansion independent of the statistical framework adopted.

Bonici, M. [Waterloo U.; Perimeter Inst. Theor. Ph↗