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DOE OSTI2026

On the Ordering Mechanism of Cu + in 2D van der Waals Multiferroic CuCrP 2 S 6

CuCrP 2 S 6 is a van der Waals multiferroic where the tunable Cu + sublattice underpins its exceptional ferroelectric and electronic switching properties. Yet, the microscopic mechanism governing Cu + ordering has remained elusive. Here, we combine single-crystal X-ray and neutron diffraction with pair distribution function analysis to uncover a temperature-driven evolution of Cu + ordering, giving rise to an incommensurate quasi-antipolar phase between the paraelectric and antiferroelectric states. The modulation originates from correlated Cu + occupancy redistribution coupled to breathing distortion of surrounding S 3 triangles, establishing a symmetry-adapted lattice distortion mode. Diffuse scattering persisting over 35 K above the transition confirms that the structural instability follows an order-disorder mechanism. The spontaneous off-centering of Cu + positions CuCrP 2 S 6 as a model platform for correlated order-disorder phenomena in 2D layered ferroics, and provides design principles for next-generation memory and logic devices.

ferroelectrics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Hidden orders and phase transitions for the fully packed quantum loop model on the triangular lattice

Abstract Quantum loop and dimer models are prototypical correlated systems with local constraints, which are not only intimately connected to lattice gauge theories and topological orders but are also widely applicable to the broad research areas of quantum materials and quantum simulation. Employing our sweeping cluster quantum Monte Carlo algorithm, we reveal the complete phase diagram of the triangular-lattice fully packed quantum loop model. Apart from the known lattice nematic (LN) solid and the even$${{\mathbb{Z}}}_{2}$$ Z 2 quantum spin liquid (QSL) phases, we discover a hidden vison plaquette (VP) phase, which had been overlooked and misinterpreted as a QSL for more than a decade. Moreover, the VP-to-QSL continuous transition belongs to the (2 + 1)D cubic * universality class, which offers a lattice realization of the (fractionalized) cubic fixed point that had long been considered as irrelevant towards the O(3) symmetry until corrected recently by conformal bootstrap calculations. Our results are therefore of relevance to recent developments in both experiments and theory, and facilitate further investigations of hidden phases and transitions.

Physics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Quantification of Oxygen Vacancies in SrFe0.5Cr0.5O3−δ Thin Films: Correlating Lattice Expansion with Oxidation State Variability

Oxygen vacancies (VO), even in the dilute regime, can significantly impact the physical and chemical properties of complex oxides. It is however challenging to reliably detect and adequately quantify such defects in thin film samples where the VO concentration and distribution may further vary in response to interfacial strain. Here, we present a method to quantify VO concentrations in SrFe0.5Cr0.5O3−δ (SFCO) epitaxial thin films. Through coherent Bragg rod analysis, X-ray absorption spectroscopy, and theoretical modeling, we systematically correlate the c-axis lattice expansion detected in SFCO films with a VO concentration gradient. Our results reveal a nearly linear relationship between oxygen off-stoichiometry and out-of-plane lattice expansion in coherently strained SFCO films, with δ increasing from 0.32 to 0.52 and the lattice expanding by ∼1.0%. Moreover, a significant decrease in Cr oxidation state (from Cr5+ to Cr3+) is observed as the VO concentration increases, while the Fe oxidation state remains fixed at Fe3+. Our findings provide a reliable way to quantify oxygen stoichiometry in complex oxides, offering a pathway to design materials with precisely tailored structure–property relationships.

Hossain, Mohammad Delower↗

DOE OSTI2025

Scrambling Dynamics with Imperfections in a Solvable Model

We study how probes of quantum scrambling dynamics respond to two kinds of imperfections -- unequal forward and backward evolutions and decoherence -- in a solvable Brownian circuit model. We calculate a ``renormalized'' out-of-time-order correlator (ROTOC) in the model with $N$ qubits, and we show that the circuit-averaged ROTOC is controlled by an effective probability distribution in operator weight space which obeys a system of $N$ non-linear equations of motion. These equations can be easily solved numerically for large system sizes which are beyond the reach of exact methods. Moreover, for an operator initially concentrated on weight one $w_0=1$, we provide an exact solution to the equations in the thermodynamic limit of many qubits that is valid for all times, all non-vanishing perturbation strengths $p\gtrsim 1/\sqrt{N}$, and all decoherence strengths. We also show that a generic initial condition $w_0 >1$ leads to a metastable state that eventually collapses to the $w_0=1$ case after a lifetime $\sim \log(N/w_0)$. Our results highlight situations where it is still possible to extract the unperturbed chaos exponent even in the presence of imperfections, and we comment on the applications of our results to existing experiments with nuclear spins and to future scrambling experiments.

FOS: Physical sciences↗

DOE OSTI2025

Validation of a Global Geospace Model With a Systems Science Approach Based on Canonical Correlation Analysis

A systems science approach based on canonical correlation analysis (CCA) is applied as a new, behavioral way to validate global geospace models. The biggest novelty of the technique is that it validates models at a system level, whereby a side‐by‐side comparison is performed of CCA applied to a 30‐day observational and the corresponding simulation data sets comprising quiet, moderate and active times. The simulation used the Multiscale Atmosphere‐Geospace Environment (MAGE) model. It is shown that (a) CCA must be combined with sensitivity analysis to be effective, (b) the MAGE model generally reproduces the observed behavior (more so for quieter time intervals), quantified by the intercorrelations between different variables and (c) the technique identifies the SuperMAG SML index as a quantity for which refinements of the model are needed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Out-of-time ordered correlation functions for the localized 𝑓 electrons in the Falicov-Kimball model

We provide an exact evaluation of the out-of-time correlation (OTOC) functions for the localized 𝑓-particle states in the Falicov-Kimball model within dynamical mean-field theory. Different regimes of quantum chaos and quantum scrambling are distinguished by the winding numbers of the block Toeplitz matrices used in the calculation. The similarities of these fermionic OTOCs and their logarithmic derivatives for time evolution with the OTOCs for quantum spin models with disorder are also discussed.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2026

Correlating Protein Dynamics and Catalytic Activity of a Model Hydrogenase Using Paramagnetic and Biological Nuclear Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy

Rational catalyst design remains a significant challenge, with electronic structure, steric, and electrostatic effects known to contribute to activity. Recently, dynamics has been recognized as another factor that impacts catalysis, though identifying and predicting these effects has remained out of reach. Nickel-substituted rubredoxin (NiRd), a protein-based mimic of a hydrogenase enzyme, serves as a model catalytic system in which dynamics can be systematically investigated with respect to activity. While over 30 secondary-sphere mutants of NiRd have been shown to be catalytically active, no significant correlation was observed between the rates and catalytic overpotential or electronic structure, prompting questions about the protein-derived factors that modulate activity. Here, in this work, NMR spectroscopy was used to investigate the roles of substrate accessibility, protein dynamics, and protein stability in controlling catalysis. Significant paramagnetic effects from the nickel center (S = 1) isolate the methylene proton resonances of the metal-coordinating cysteine residues. The sensitivity of resonance positions and linewidths to local environment offers an opportunity to study dynamical molecular changes around the metal center with high resolution. Machine learning algorithms were employed to identify correlations between the catalytic activity and the paramagnetic NMR spectra. These analyses revealed spectroscopic features of specific cysteine protons that report on catalytic overpotential and increased turnover rates, which are further supported by the results obtained using high-field NMR techniques. Collectively, these studies indicate the potential for multifrequency NMR techniques to resolve key contributors to catalytic activity and highlight the importance of local and outer-sphere dynamics.

Protein Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2025

Short-Term Forecasting of Thermostatic and Residential Loads Using Long Short-Term Memory Recurrent Neural Networks

Internet of Things (IoT) devices in smart grids enable intelligent energy management for grid managers and personalized energy services for consumers. Investigating a smart grid with IoT devices requires a simulation framework with IoT devices modeling. However, there lack comprehensive study on the modeling of IoT devices in smart grids. This paper investigates the IoT device modeling of a thermostatic load and implements the recurrent neural networks model for short-term load forecasting in this IoT-based thermostatic load. The recurrent neural network structure is leveraged to build a load forecasting model on temporal correlation. The temporal recurrent neural network layers including long short-term memory cells are employed to learn the data from both the simulation platform and New South Wales residential datasets. The simulation results are provided for demonstration.

electric load forecasting↗

DOE OSTI2024

Simulation of Multiphase Flow and Poromechanical Effects Around Injection Wells in CO 2 Storage Sites

In geological CO 2 storage operations, wellbore deformations and leakage pathways formations can occur around injection and abandoned wells subjected to high rates and long-term CO 2 injection. To guide engineering design and prevent CO 2 leakage risks, a full understanding of the underlying physics and robust numerical models is necessary to evaluate the response of underground formations in the near wellbore region and in the reservoir. In this study, a multi-scale and multi-physics open-source simulator (GEOS) is used to simulate multiphase flow and poromechanical deformations over time in three dimensions. The governing equations for mechanical deformations of the rock body and multiphase compositional fluid flow within the rock matrix are solved with a fully coupled finite element and finite volume approach. The Drucker–Prager model with friction hardening is applied to simulate elastoplastic deformation and a multiphase fluid model with power-law correlations for relative permeability is used to model the migration of CO 2 plume, which are coupled with numerical implicit scheme. Simulation results are verified against multiple analytical solutions for multiphase flow and wellbore problems, thus demonstrating the accuracy of this advanced simulator. In two engineering applications, here we highlight the impact of elastoplastic deformation and coupled modeling for assessing induced displacements and stress perturbations, which are more pronounced in the near wellbore regions. This work focuses on short-term processes in the vicinity of injection wells where stress evolutions, rock deformations and multiphase compositional flow and transport are simulated jointly to ensure wellbore stability and prevent damage. This fully coupled geomechanical model can simulate multiphase flow and any associated poromechanical effects within the CO 2 storage site and in the surrounding formations. Such a large-scale, long-term, multi-physics simulation model is useful in many ways: it can guide operational decisions for CO 2 injection, assess the containment potential and risks of a site, and analyze the wellbore stability and integrity during and after CO 2 injection.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

PreMevE‐MEO: Predicting Ultra‐Relativistic Electrons Using Observations From GPS Satellites

Abstract Ultra‐relativistic electrons with energies greater than or equal to two megaelectron‐volt (MeV) pose a major radiation threat to spaceborne electronics, and thus specifying those highly energetic electrons has a significant meaning to space weather communities. Here we report the latest progress in developing our predictive model for MeV electrons in the outer radiation belt. The new version, primarily driven by electron measurements made along medium‐Earth‐orbits (MEO), is called PREdictive MEV Electron (PreMevE)‐MEO model that nowcasts ultra‐relativistic electron flux distributions across the whole outer belt. Model inputs include >2 MeV electron fluxes observed in MEOs by a fleet of GPS satellites as well as electrons measured by one Los Alamos satellite in the geosynchronous orbit. We developed an innovative Sparse Multi‐Inputs Latent Ensemble NETwork (SmileNet) which combines convolutional neural networks with transformers, and we used long‐term in situ electron data from NASA's Van Allen Probes mission to train, validate, optimize, and test the model. It is shown that PreMevE‐MEO can provide hourly nowcasts with high model performance efficiency and high correlation with observations. This prototype PreMevE‐MEO model demonstrates the feasibility of making high‐fidelity predictions driven by observations from longstanding space infrastructure in MEO, thus has great potential of growing into an invaluable space weather operational warning tool.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Radiation-induced bowing of SiC/SiC composites under neutron flux gradients—integral experimental data for model validation

Here, the radiation-induced swelling of SiC and its composites, including strong dependencies on temperature and dose, can drive significant lateral bowing in the presence of temperature and/or dose gradients. In recent years, simulations have been performed to assess the extent of bowing in SiC composite light-water reactor (LWR) fuel cladding and boiling water reactor (BWR) channel boxes. However, to date, no integral experimental data exist to validate these models. This work provides the first experimental bowing evaluation of three ∼380 mm long SiC composite specimens irradiated under varying neutron dose gradients (∼50°C–60°C, 0.03–0.06 dpa): two tubes (∼9.8 mm diameter) and a miniature BWR channel box (∼30 mm square). The measured radiation-induced length swelling (∼0.3%–0.7% linear) was consistently 10%–21% higher than values obtained from 3D finite element structural analyses with inputs from 3D radiation transport calculations. This discrepancy could be at least partially explained by differences in dose rate (∼10 -8 dpa/s) compared to the literature data (∼10-6 dpa/s) used to establish the dose-to-swelling correlations in the model. Nevertheless, the modeled bowing magnitudes (<2 mm) obtained from finite element analyses and simple analytical equations were within the bounds of the experimental measurements for all specimens. With improved confidence in the ability to predict the structural response and measure the macroscopic deformations, future experiments will target transient bowing under neutron flux gradients at representative LWR temperatures and assess whether grid spacers can mitigate the tens of millimeters of bowing that would otherwise be expected in ∼4 m long LWR components.

bowing↗

DOE OSTI2026

High-Burnup LOCA Burst Susceptibility BISON Analysis in PWRs and BWRs

Accurately assessing high-burnup fuel behavior during loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCAs) is essential for understanding fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD) risks across the US light-water reactor fleet. This work updates previous Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) Program multiphysics LOCA analyses for a pressurized water reactor (PWR) and a boiling water reactor (BWR) by incorporating recent model and material property advancements in the BISON fuel performance code, including a high-burnup structure (HBS) model, revised cladding burst criteria, and updated thermal–mechanical correlations. This update was needed to support ongoing industry initiatives and upcoming regulatory changes. Full-core, rod-resolved operating histories generated using Virtual Environment for Reactor Analysis (VERA) and system-level LOCA conditions obtained from TRACE were applied to statistically representative rod samples in BISON to evaluate burst behavior and FFRD susceptibility. These calculations used two cladding burst correlations and three fuel pulverization models so that the predictions of these models could be compared. The updated PWR simulations show markedly improved numerical stability as the number of crashed simulations decreased by 95% compared to the previous study, and hence higher confidence in results. The updated PWR simulations predicted cladding bursts exclusively among once-burned, high-power rods, with two different cladding burst models identifying the same burst-susceptible population. Resulting FFRD susceptibility estimates are significantly reduced compared with earlier studies, driven by cooler predicted fuel and plenum temperatures, lower hoop strains, and reduced fission gas release in the updated models. In contrast, none of the BWR rods were predicted to burst under either burst criterion, reaffirming minimal BWR FFRD susceptibility even with updated HBS and material models. Comparisons between the PWR and BWR end-of-cycle predictions are made. Comparison with prior work highlights significant shifts in PWR fuel performance metrics and confirmation of earlier BWR conclusions. Overall, the updated results underscore the importance of having high-resolution detailed modeling capability and continuously integrating evolving material models and physics into high-resolution multiphysics simulations. The unified assessment presented here strengthens confidence in predicting high-burnup LOCA behavior by improving agreement between different cladding burst correlations. These results also provide an improved foundation for future BISON model development, FFRD susceptibility calculations.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

MIC-DP: A Scalable Correlation-Aware Differential Privacy Framework for High-Dimensional Data

Conventional differential privacy (DP) assumes record independence, limiting effectiveness on real-world datasets with temporal, spatial, or structural correlations. These dependencies undermine privacy guarantees and degrade utility in domains like healthcare, IoT, and smart city analytics. We propose Maximum Information Correlated Differential Privacy (MIC-DP), a novel framework that dynamically calibrates noise based on statistical dependencies. MIC-DP uses the Maximum Information Coefficient (MIC) to capture both linear and nonlinear correlations without explicit modeling, enabling adaptive sensitivity adjustment and improved privacy–utility trade-offs. Evaluations on healthcare (MIMIC), demographic (ACI), and synthetic datasets show that MIC-DP reduces mean absolute error (MAE) by up to 5.2% under strict privacy budgets (ϵ≤1), with aggregate utility improvements reaching 18% across datasets and evaluation metrics. MIC-DP provides formal (ϵ,δ)-privacy guarantees, scales efficiently with feature count, and supports deployment in moderate-scale, privacy-sensitive applications. Its tunable performance and runtime efficiency make MIC-DP suitable for privacy-sensitive applications where low-latency analytics and strong privacy guarantees must coexist. These results demonstrate MIC-DP’s effectiveness as a correlation-aware solution for practical DP.

Yang, Wenjun [Univ. of Washington, Tacoma, WA (Uni↗

DOE OSTI2024

Subpolar North Atlantic Mean State Affects the Response of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to the North Atlantic Oscillation in CMIP6 Models

Abstract The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) plays an important role in climate, transporting heat and salt to the subpolar North Atlantic. The AMOC’s variability is sensitive to atmospheric forcing, especially the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Because AMOC observations are short, climate models are a valuable tool to study the AMOC’s variability. Yet, there are known issues with climate models, like uncertainties and systematic biases. To investigate this, preindustrial control experiments from models participating in the phase 6 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) are evaluated. There is a large, but correlated, spread in the models’ subpolar gyre mean surface temperature and salinity. By splitting models into groups of either a warm–salty or cold–fresh subpolar gyre, it is shown that warm–salty models have a lower sea ice cover in the Labrador Sea and, hence, enable a larger heat loss during a positive NAO. Stratification in the Labrador Sea is also weaker in warm–salty models, such that the larger NAO-related heat loss can also affect greater depths. As a result, subsurface density anomalies are much stronger in the warm–salty models than in those that tend to be cold and fresh. As these anomalies propagate southward along the western boundary, they establish a zonal density gradient anomaly that promotes a stronger delayed AMOC response to the NAO in the warm–salty models. These findings demonstrate how model mean state errors are linked across variables and affect variability, emphasizing the need for improvement of the subpolar North Atlantic mean states in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

In Situ Prediction of Microstructure and Mechanical Properties in Laser-Remelted Al-Si Alloys: Towards Enhanced Additive Manufacturing

Laser surface remelting of aluminum alloys has emerged as a promising technique to enhance mechanical properties through refined microstructures. This process involves rapid cooling rates ranging from 10 3 to 10 8 °C/s, which increase solid solubility within aluminum alloys, shifting their eutectic composition to a larger value of silicon content. Consequently, the resulting microstructure combines a strengthened aluminum matrix with silicon fibers. This study focuses on the laser scanning of Al-Si aluminum alloy to reduce the size of aluminum matrix spacings and transform fibrous silicon particles from micrometer to nanometer dimensions. Analysis revealed that the eutectic structure contained 17.55% silicon by weight, surpassing the equilibrium eutectic composition of 12.6% silicon. Microstructure dimensions within the molten zones, termed ‘melt pools’, were extensively examined using Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) at intervals of approximately 20 μm from the surface. A notable increase in hardness, exceeding 50% compared to the base plate, was observed in the melt pool regions. Thus, it is exemplified that laser surface remelting introduces a novel strengthening mechanism in the alloy. Moreover, this study develops an in situ method for predicting melt pool properties and dimensions. A predictive model is proposed, correlating energy density and spectral signals emitted during laser remelting with mechanical properties and melt pool dimensions. This method significantly reduces characterization time from days to seconds, offering a streamlined approach for future studies in additive manufacturing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Comparison of Machine Learning-Based Predictive Models of the Nutrient Loads Delivered from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin to the Gulf of Mexico

Predicting nutrient loads is essential to understanding and managing one of the environmental issues faced by the northern Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone, which poses a severe threat to the Gulf’s healthy ecosystem and economy. The development of hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico is strongly associated with the eutrophication process initiated by excessive nutrient loads. Due to the complexities in the excessive nutrient loads to the Gulf of Mexico, it is challenging to understand and predict the underlying temporal variation of nutrient loads. The study was aimed at identifying an optimal predictive machine learning model to capture and predict nonlinear behavior of the nutrient loads delivered from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB) to the Gulf of Mexico. For this purpose, monthly nutrient loads (N and P) in tons were collected from US Geological Survey (USGS) monitoring station 07373420 from 1980 to 2020. Machine learning models—including autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), gaussian process regression (GPR), single-layer multilayer perceptron (MLP), and a long short-term memory (LSTM) with the single hidden layer—were developed to predict the monthly nutrient loads, and model performances were evaluated by standard assessment metrics—Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Correlation Coefficient (R). The residuals of predictive models were examined by the Durbin–Watson statistic. The results showed that MLP and LSTM persistently achieved better accuracy in predicting monthly TN and TP loads compared to GPR and ARIMA. In addition, GPR models achieved slightly better test RMSE score than ARIMA models while their correlation coefficients are much lower than ARIMA models. Moreover, MLP performed slightly better than LSTM in predicting monthly TP loads while LSTM slightly outperformed for TN loads. Furthermore, it was found that the optimizer and number of inputs didn’t show effects on the LSTM performance while they exhibited impacts on MLP outcomes. This study explores the capability of machine learning models to accurately predict nonlinearly fluctuating nutrient loads delivered to the Gulf of Mexico. Further efforts focus on improving the accuracy of forecasting using hybrid models which combine several machine learning models with superior predictive performance for nutrient fluxes throughout the MARB.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Design of a High-Pressure Fuel System for Use with Dimethyl Ether

The paper documents the modeling and experimental work on a common rail fuel injection system for Dimethyl Ether, a potential diesel substitute with a low carbon intensity signature. The DME fuel system is deployed on a light duty 2.2L compression ignition engine. The paper describes the injector optimization to shift to higher flows to account for the lower heating value and density of the DME when compared to diesel. The type of the injection system used for the DME application is an advanced rendering of the Common rail noted for a one-piece piston-needle injector construction and a solenoid driven spill valve featuring a pressure balanced poppet. A dedicated high-pressure fuel pump designed to pressurize DME is used. The design results in a fast acting open and close injection event, reduced leakage, with reduced cavitation in the fuel injector volume. Design parameters for system optimization included fill and spill orifices, needle lift, bias spring, and injector hole size. The design model provides good correlation of the instantaneous rates of injection with experiments across a wide range of pressure and injection timings. Proposed performance milestones for the design included similar DME injection duration to the diesel counterpart for same fuel energy injected into the cylinder to retain high engine cycle efficiency. Here, the dedicated DME design provided reduced hydraulic delays of 50%. Tests demonstrated sustained operation at pressures of 1000 bar, with capability to reach 1500bar. Durability tests showed no cavitation-deterioration over a 200-hour test cycle by means of spray imaging and hardware inspection.

De Ojeda, William [WM International Engineering, L↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modelling the impact of quasar redshift errors on the full-shape analysis of correlations in the Lyman-α forest.

In preparation for the first cosmological measurements from the full shape of the Lyman-α (Lyα) forest from DESI, we must carefully model all relevant systematics that might bias our analysis. It was shown in Youles et al. (2022) that random quasar redshift errors produce a smoothing effect on the mean quasar continuum in the Lyα forest region. This, in turn, gives rise to spurious features in the Lyα autocorrelation and its cross-correlation with quasars. Using synthetic data sets based on the DESI survey, we confirm that the impact on BAO measurements is small, but that a bias is introduced to parameters which depend on the full shape of our correlations. We combine a model of this contamination in the cross-correlation (Youles et al. 2022) with a new model we introduce here for the auto-correlation. These are parametrised by 3 parameters, which, when included in a joint fit to both correlation functions, successfully eliminate any impact of redshift errors on our full-shape constraints. We also present a strategy for removing this contamination from real data, by removing ∼0.3% of correlating pairs.

cosmology↗