SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “conditional probability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 127 records · Page 7

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS1986

On the design of classifiers for crop inventories

Crop proportion estimators that use classifications of satellite data to correct, in an additive way, a given estimate acquired from ground observations are discussed. A linear version of these estimators is optimal, in terms of minimum variance, when the regression of the ground observations onto the satellite observations in linear. When this regression is not linear, but the reverse regression (satellite observations onto ground observations) is linear, the estimator is suboptimal but still has certain appealing variance properties. In this paper expressions are derived for those regressions which relate the intercepts and slopes to conditional classification probabilities. These expressions are then used to discuss the question of classifier designs that can lead to low-variance crop proportion estimates. Variance expressions for these estimates in terms of classifier omission and commission errors are also derived.

Heydorn, R. P.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Voyager 2 photopolarimeter observations of the Uranian satellites

The surfaces of the principal Uranian satellites are characterized on the basis of UV and IR geometric albedos, phase curves, and phase coefficients obtained in full-disk photopolarimetric observations during the Voyager 2 encounter with Uranus in January 1986. The data are presented in tables and graphs and found to be consistent with a heavily cratered terrain and loosely packed regolith. The Bond albedos are calculated as 0.22 + or - 0.1 for Ariel, 0.07 + or - 0.05 for Umbriel, 0.16 + or - 0.12 for Titania, and 0.19 + or - 0.22 for Oberon. The characteristics of the Uranian satellites indicate compositions (and probably formation conditions and surface-modification mechanisms) distinct from those of the Saturnian and Jovian satellites.

Nelson, Robert M.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Expected IPS variations due to a disturbance described by a 3-D MHD model

The variations of interplanetary scintillation due to a disturbance described by a three-dimensional, time-dependent, MHD model of the interplanetary medium are calculated. The resulting simulated IPS maps are compared with observations of real disturbances and it is found that there is some qualitative agreement. It is concluded that the MHD model with a more realistic choice of input conditions would probably provide a useful description of many interplanetary disturbances.

Tappin, S. J.↗

NASA NTRS1990

A simulation evaluation of the engine monitoring and control system display

The Engine Monitoring and Control System (E-MACS) display is a new concept for an engine instrument display, the purpose of which is to provide an enhanced means for a pilot to control and monitor aircraft engine performance. It provides graphically-presented information about performance capabilities, current performance, and engine component or subsystem operational conditions relative to nominal conditions. The concept was evaluated by sixteen pilot-subjects against a traditional, state-of-the-art electronic engine display format. The results of this evaluation showed a substantial pilot preference for the E-MACS display relative to the traditional display. The results of the failure detection portion of the evaluation showed a 100 percent detection rate for the E-MACS display relative to a 57 percent rate for the traditional display. From these results, it is concluded that by providing this type of information in the cockpit, a reduction in pilot workload and an enhanced ability for detecting degraded or off-nominal conditions is probable, thus leading to an increase in operational safety.

Abbott, Terence S.↗

NASA NTRS1990

MHD intermediate shocks in coronal mass ejections

A simplified model of coronal mass ejections is considered in which at least a portion of the interaction with the background corona involves a shock wave, and the allowable shock solutions and their compressive signatures are examined. The MHD shock-jump equations have a maximum of three possible types of solutions with an entropy rise for fixed values of the physical variables (slow, intermediate, and fast shocks). However, one of the three solution classes (the intermediate shock) is widely believed to not occur in nature and is regarded as nonevolutionary or extraneous. Without the intermediate shock, there is no multiplicity of solutions in that only one shock (or none) can occur for given physical values. All three potential shock types are considered, and it is shown solely on the basis of the shock-jump equations, that intermediate shocks must exist along some segment of the shock front for certain parametric regimes and for conditions that probably occur in some coronal mass ejections.

Steinolfson, R. S.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Earth return aerocapture for manned Mars missions

Lift to drag ratio (L/D) requirements and stagnation point heating have been examined for a variety of probable entry conditions and vehicle configurations. It is found that vehicles with an L/D of 0.5 or more provide a corridor width of at least 0.7 degrees while keeping the peak deceleration load below 5 g for approach velocities up to 14.5 km/s. It is shown that stagnation point peak heating rates and integrated heat load critically depend on both entry velocity and ballistic coefficient. For the most severe cases under consideration, peak heating and integrated heat load are five times greater than those encountered by Apollo but within the range of experience for unmanned vehicles.

Tauber, M. E.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Utilitarian models of the solar nebula

Models of the primitive solar nebula based on a combination of theory, observations of T Tauri stars, and global conservation laws are presented. The models describe the motions of nebular gas, mixing of interstellar material during the formation of the nebula, and evolution of thermal structure in terms of several characteristic parameters. The parameters describe key aspects of the protosolar cloud (its rotation rate and collapse rate) and the nebula (its mass relative to the Sun, decay time, and density distribution). For most applications, the models are heuristic rather than predicted. Their purpose is to provide a realistic context for the interpretation of solar system data, and to distinquish those nebular characteristics that can be specified with confidence, independently of the assumtions of particular models, form those that are poorly constrained. It is demonstrated that nebular gas typically experienced large radial excursions during the evolution of the nebula and that both inward and outward mean radial velocities on the order of meters per second occured in the terrestrial planet region, with inward velocities predominant for most ofthe evolution. However, the time history of disk size, surface density, and radial velocities are sensitive to the total angular momentun of the protosolar cloud, which cannot be constrained by purely theoretical considerations.It is shown that a certain amount of 'formational' mixing of interstellar material was an inevitable consequenc of nebular mass and angular momentum transport during protostellar collapse, regardless of the specific transport mechanisms invloved. Even if the protosolar cloud was initially homogeneous, this mixing was important because it had the effect of mingling presolar material that had experienced different degrees of thermal processing during collapse and passage through the accertion shock. Nebular thermal structure is less sensitive to poorly constrained parameters than is dynamical history. A simple criterion is derived for the condition that silicate grains are evaporated at midplane, and it is argued that this condition was probably fulfilled early in nebular history. Cooling of a hot nebula due tocoagulation of dust and consequent local reduction of optical depth is examined, and it is shown how such a process leads naturally to an enrichment of rock-forming elements in the gas phase.

Cassen, Patrick↗

NASA NTRS1996

Reliability, Risk and Cost Trade-Offs for Composite Designs

Risk and cost trade-offs have been simulated using a probabilistic method. The probabilistic method accounts for all naturally-occurring uncertainties including those in constituent material properties, fabrication variables, structure geometry and loading conditions. The probability density function of first buckling load for a set of uncertain variables is computed. The probabilistic sensitivity factors of uncertain variables to the first buckling load is calculated. The reliability-based cost for a composite fuselage panel is defined and minimized with respect to requisite design parameters. The optimization is achieved by solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations whose coefficients are functions of probabilistic sensitivity factors. With optimum design parameters such as the mean and coefficient of variation (representing range of scatter) of uncertain variables, the most efficient and economical manufacturing procedure can be selected. In this paper, optimum values of the requisite design parameters for a predetermined cost due to failure occurrence are computationally determined. The results for the fuselage panel analysis show that the higher the cost due to failure occurrence, the smaller the optimum coefficient of variation of fiber modulus (design parameter) in longitudinal direction.

Shiao, Michael C.↗

NASA NTRS2002

A statistical model for interpreting computerized dynamic posturography data

Computerized dynamic posturography (CDP) is widely used for assessment of altered balance control. CDP trials are quantified using the equilibrium score (ES), which ranges from zero to 100, as a decreasing function of peak sway angle. The problem of how best to model and analyze ESs from a controlled study is considered. The ES often exhibits a skewed distribution in repeated trials, which can lead to incorrect inference when applying standard regression or analysis of variance models. Furthermore, CDP trials are terminated when a patient loses balance. In these situations, the ES is not observable, but is assigned the lowest possible score--zero. As a result, the response variable has a mixed discrete-continuous distribution, further compromising inference obtained by standard statistical methods. Here, we develop alternative methodology for analyzing ESs under a stochastic model extending the ES to a continuous latent random variable that always exists, but is unobserved in the event of a fall. Loss of balance occurs conditionally, with probability depending on the realized latent ES. After fitting the model by a form of quasi-maximum-likelihood, one may perform statistical inference to assess the effects of explanatory variables. An example is provided, using data from the NIH/NIA Baltimore Longitudinal Study on Aging.

NASA Discipline Neuroscience↗

NASA NTRS1998

Auditory cues for orientation and postural control in sighted and congenitally blind people

This study assessed whether stationary auditory information could affect body and head sway (as does visual and haptic information) in sighted and congenitally blind people. Two speakers, one placed adjacent to each ear, significantly stabilized center-of-foot-pressure sway in a tandem Romberg stance, while neither a single speaker in front of subjects nor a head-mounted sonar device reduced center-of-pressure sway. Center-of-pressure sway was reduced to the same level in the two-speaker condition for sighted and blind subjects. Both groups also evidenced reduced head sway in the two-speaker condition, although blind subjects' head sway was significantly larger than that of sighted subjects. The advantage of the two-speaker condition was probably attributable to the nature of distance compared with directional auditory information. The results rule out a deficit model of spatial hearing in blind people and are consistent with one version of a compensation model. Analysis of maximum cross-correlations between center-of-pressure and head sway, and associated time lags suggest that blind and sighted people may use different sensorimotor strategies to achieve stability.

NASA Discipline Neuroscience↗

NASA NTRS1946

Longitudinal Stability and Stalling Characteristics of a 1/8.33-Scale Model of the Republic XF-12 Airplane

The XF-12 airplane is a high performance, photo-reconnaissance aircraft designed by the Republic Aviation Corporation for Army Air Forces. A series of tests of a 1/8.33-scale powered model was conducted in the Langley 9-foot pressure tunnel to obtain information relative to the aerodynamic design of the airplane. This report presents the results of tests to determine the static longitudinal stability and stalling characteristics of the model. From this investigation it was indicated that the airplane will possess a positive static margin for all probable flight conditions. The stalling characteristics are considered satisfactory in that the stall initiates near the root section and progresses toward the tips. Early root section stalling occurs, with the flaps retracted and may cause undesirable tail buffeting and erratic elevator control in the normal flight range. From considerations of sinking speed landing flap deflections of 40 degrees may be preferable to 55 degrees of 65 degrees.

Pepper, Edward↗

NASA NTRS1947

Estimation of the Spin and Recovery Characteristics of the North American XSN2J-1 Airplane

The probable spin and recovery characteristics of the XSN2J-1 air-plane have been estimated on the basis of the results of brief test a performed on a model of an airplane of somewhat similar design. The spin-recovery tail-parachute requirements for the airplane were also determined end, in addition, an analysis was made to determine the best method of emergency pilot escape during a spin. The results of the investigation indicate that the recovery characteristics of the airplane will be satisfactory for all probable loading conditions of the airplane. A 6-foot-diameter tall parachute attached to a 30-foot tow-line will be satisfactory as a spin-recovery device for emergency recovery from demonstration spins. If the occupants of the airplane decide to abandon the airplane in a spin, they should leave the airplane from the outboard side of the cockpit and as far rearward as possible.

Snyder, Thomas L.↗

NASA NTRS2016

The Earth Through Time: Implications for Searching for Habitability and Life on Exoplanets

The Earth has been both a habitable and inhabited planet for around 4 billion years, yet distant observers studying Earth at different epochs in our history would have detected substantially different and probably varying conditions. Understanding Earth's history thus has much to tell us about how to interpret observations of potentially habitable exoplanets. In this talk I will review the history of life on Earth, from the earliest microbial biosphere living under a relatively methane-rich atmosphere to the modern world of animals, plants, and atmospheric oxygen, with a focus on how observable conditions on Earth changed as the planet and its biosphere evolved. I'll discuss the implications of this history for assessing the habitability of-or presence of life on-planets around other stars.

Earth↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Automation and AI in Space Drilling

Future planetary surface sampling missions, such as delving past the near-surface ice layers on Mars in search of organics and possibly signs of past/extant life, will require lightweight, low-mass planetary drilling and sample handling. Unlike terrestrial drills, these exploration drills must work dry (without drilling muds or gas), blind (no prior local or regional seismic or other surveys), and light (very low downward force or weight on bit, and perhaps 100 W available from solar power or batteries). Given the lightspeed transmission delays to Mars and outward, an exploratory planetary drill cannot be controlled directly from Earth. Drills that penetrate deeper than a few centimeters are likely to get stuck if operated open-loop (the MSL drill only penetrates 5 cm, and the MER Rock Abrasion Tools 5 mm by comparison), so some form of local drill control is required. In the relatively near-term, human crews cannot be presumed to be available for surface instrument teleoperation. Therefore highly automated drill and sample-transfer operations will be required, to explore the subsurface with the ability to safe robotic drilling systems and recover and continue on from the most probable fault conditions. Current automation, scheduling and diagnostic approaches will be discussed that roughly track the actions and roles of humans in terrestrial manual drilling operations.

drill automation↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Warming Reduces the Efficacy of Wet Conditions to Moderate Extreme Heat and Atmospheric Aridity Across the Central Plains

In the literature, dry land surface conditions possess a well-established association with extreme heat and high atmospheric aridity, especially in regions that experience strong land-atmosphere feedbacks. However, few studies have examined whether global warming will impact the ability of wet conditions to constrain high temperatures and atmospheric aridity occurrences. Here we investigate how wet conditions, which we define using precipitation and soil moisture, constrain high temperature and high vapor pressure deficit during the warm season over the Central Plains in North America at different global warming levels (0-3 degrees K). Using a CMIP6 multi-model ensemble, we show that absolute changes in the maximum temperature distribution outweigh the historical cooling effect of high precipitation or soil moisture conditions, reducing the probability of non-extreme maximum temperatures under global warming. Strikingly, the conditional likelihood of non-extreme maximum temperatures falls from 97-98% at baseline conditions to 50-58% at 1 degree of global warming. Once 2 degrees of warming is reached, there is very little probability of constraining extreme maximum temperatures. On the other hand, high precipitation and high soil moisture are able to better retain the ability to constrain concurrent high vapor pressure deficit conditions – moving from 99% at baseline conditions to 81-91% at 1 degree of warming and 26-42% at 2 degrees of warming. With our results, we find that the extent of this retention is dependent on how individual models represent relative changes in the VPD distribution as temperatures warm. Overall, our results highlight the growing vulnerability of the Central North American region to warmer temperatures and drier atmospheric conditions, even during periods of high precipitation and soil moisture.

Extreme heat↗

NASA NTRS1994

Modulations of stratospheric ozone by volcanic eruptions

We have used a time series of aerosol surface based on the measurements of Hofmann to investigate the modulation of total column ozone caused by the perturbation to gas phase chemistry by the reaction N2O5(gas) + H2O(aero) yields 2HNO3(gas) on the surface of stratospheric aerosols. We have tested a range of values for its reaction probability, gamma = 0.02, 0.13, and 0.26 which we compared to unperturbed homogeneous chemistry. Our analysis spans a period from Jan. 1974 to Oct. 1994. The results suggest that if lower values of gamma are the norm then we would expect larger ozone losses for highly enhanced aerosol content that for larger values of gamma. The ozone layer is more sensitive to the magnitude of the reaction probability under background conditions than during volcanically active periods. For most conditions, the conversion of NO2 to HNO3 is saturated for reaction probability in the range of laboratory measurements, but is only absolutely saturated following major volcanic eruptions when the heterogeneous loss dominates the losses of N2O5. The ozone loss due to this heterogeneous reaction increases with the increasing chlorine load. Total ozone losses calculated are comparable to ozone losses reported from TOMS and Dobson data.

Blanchette, Christian↗

NASA NTRS1996

Phenols in hydrothermal petroleums and sediment bitumen from Guaymas Basin, Gulf of California

The aliphatic, aromatic and polar (NSO) fractions of seabed petroleums and sediment bitumen extracts from the Guaymas Basin hydrothermal system have been analyzed by gas chromatography and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (free and silylated). The oils were collected from the interiors and exteriors of high temperature hydrothermal vents and represent hydrothermal pyrolyzates that have migrated to the seafloor by hydrothermal fluid circulation. The downcore sediments are representative of both thermally unaltered and thermally altered sediments. The survey has revealed the presence of oxygenated compounds in samples with a high degree of thermal maturity. Phenols are one class of oxygenated compounds found in these samples. A group of methyl-, dimethyl- and trimethyl-isoprenoidyl phenols (C27-C29) is present in all of the seabed NSO fractions, with the methyl- and dimethyl-isoprenoidyl phenols occurring as major components, and a trimethyl-isoprenoidyl phenol as a minor component. A homologous series of n-alkylphenols (C13-C33) has also been found in the seabed petroleums. These phenols are most likely derived from the hydrothermal alteration of sedimentary organic matter. The n-alkylphenols are probably synthesized under hydrothermal conditions, but the isoprenoidyl phenols are probably hydrothermal alteration products of natural product precursors. The suites of phenols do not appear to be useful tracers of high temperature hydrothermal processes.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS1986

Time variations of the distant magnetotail

The likely dimensions of an extended earth magnetotail are investigated by considering various published polar cap and magnetotail observations in light of recent knowledge about magnetosphere behavior under different interplanetary magnetic field conditions. It is argued that the magnetotail is highly time dependent. During southward field conditions the tail probably attains its maximum radius but is subject to 'breaking off' via substorm associated reconnection events which temporarily deplete the flux and reduce the radius. During northward interplanetary conditions more field lines are apt to close near the earth leaving considerably less flux to form any extended tail. Using estimates for both the amount of open polar cap flux and the tail flux at 60 earth radii, it is argued that at 200 earth radii either the tail cross section is elongated in the equatorial plane or the average radius is not more than 25 earth radii.

Fairfield, D. H.↗