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At least 127 records · Page 7

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2020

Arctic Coastal Erosion: Modeling and Experimentation

Increasing Arctic coastal erosion rates have put critical infrastructure and native communities at risk while also mobilizing ancient organic carbon into modern carbon cycles. Although the Arctic comprises one-third of the global coastline and has some of the fastest eroding coasts, current tools for quantifying permafrost erosion are unable to explain the episodic, storm-driven erosion events. Our approach, mechanistically coupling oceanographic predictions with a terrestrial model to capture the thermo-mechanical dynamics of erosion, enables this much needed treatment of transient erosion events. The Arctic Coastal Erosion Model consists of oceanographic and atmospheric boundary conditions that force a coastal terrestrial permafrost environment in Albany (a multi-physics based finite element model). An oceanographic modeling suite (consisting of WAVEWATCH III, Delft3D-FLOW, and Delft3D-WAVE) produced time-dependent surge and run-up boundary conditions for the terrestrial model. In the terrestrial model, a coupling framework unites the mechanical and thermal aspects of erosion. 3D stress/strain fields develop in response to a plasticity model of the permafrost that is controlled by the frozen water content determined by modeling 3D heat conduction and solid-liquid phase change. This modeling approach enables failure from any allowable deformation (block failure, slumping, etc.). Extensive experimental work has underpinned the ACE Model development including field campaigns to measure in situ ocean and erosion processes, strength properties derived from thermally driven geomechanical experiments, as well as extensive physical composition and geochemical analyses. Combined, this work offers the most comprehensive and physically grounded treatment of Arctic coastal erosion available in the literature. The ACE model and experimental results can be used to inform scientific understanding of coastal erosion processes, contribute to estimates of geochemical and sediment land-to-ocean fluxes, and facilitate infrastructure susceptibility assessments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2013

Discriminating Phytoplankton Functional Types (PFTs) in the Coastal Ocean Using the Inversion Algorithm Phydotax and Airborne Imaging Spectrometer Data

There is a need in the Biological Oceanography community to discriminate among phytoplankton groups within the bulk chlorophyll pool to understand energy flow through ecosystems, to track the fate of carbon in the ocean, and to detect and monitor-for harmful algal blooms (HABs). The ocean color community has responded to this demand with the development of phytoplankton functional type (PFT) discrimination algorithms. These PFT algorithms fall into one of three categories depending on the science application: size-based, biogeochemical function, and taxonomy. The new PFT algorithm Phytoplankton Detection with Optics (PHYDOTax) is an inversion algorithm that discriminates taxon-specific biomass to differentiate among six taxa found in the California Current System: diatoms, dinoflagellates, haptophytes, chlorophytes, cryptophytes, and cyanophytes. PHYDOTax was developed and validated in Monterey Bay, CA for the high resolution imaging spectrometer, Spectroscopic Aerial Mapping System with On-board Navigation (SAMSON - 3.5 nm resolution). PHYDOTax exploits the high spectral resolution of an imaging spectrometer and the improved spatial resolution that airborne data provides for coastal areas. The objective of this study was to apply PHYDOTax to a relatively lower resolution imaging spectrometer to test the algorithm's sensitivity to atmospheric correction, to evaluate capability with other sensors, and to determine if down-sampling spectral resolution would degrade its ability to discriminate among phytoplankton taxa. This study is a part of the larger Hyperspectral Infrared Imager (HyspIRI) airborne simulation campaign which is collecting Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) imagery aboard NASA's ER-2 aircraft during three seasons in each of two years over terrestrial and marine targets in California. Our aquatic component seeks to develop and test algorithms to retrieve water quality properties (e.g. HABs and river plumes) in both marine and in-land water bodies. Results presented are from the 10 April 2013 overflight of the Monterey Bay region and focus primarily on the first objective - sensitivity to atmospheric correction. On-going and future work will continue to evaluate if PHYDOTax can be applied to historical (SeaWiFS and MERIS), existing (MODIS, VIIRS, and HICO), and future (PACE, GEO-CAPE, and HyspIRI) satellite sensors. Demonstration of cross-platform continuity may aid in calibration and validation efforts of these sensors.

Biological Oceanography↗

DOE OSTI2023

Shallow-Water Habitat in the Lower Columbia River Estuary: A Highly Altered System

Abstract Decreases in shallow-water habitat area (SWHA) in the Lower Columbia River and Estuary (LCRE) have adversely affected salmonid populations. We investigate the causes by hindcasting SWHA from 1928 to 2004, system-wide, based on daily higher high water (HHW) and system hypsometry. Physics-based regression models are used to represent HHW along the system as a function of river inflow, tides, and coastal processes, and hypsometry is used to estimate the associated SWHA. Scenario modeling is employed to attribute SWHA losses to levees, flow regulation, diversion, navigational development, and climate-induced hydrologic change, for subsidence scenarios of up to 2 m, and for 0.5 m fill. For zero subsidence, the system-wide annual-average loss of SWHA is 55 ± 5%, or 51 × 10 5 ha/year; levees have caused the largest decrease ( $${54}_{-14}^{+5}$$ 54 - 14 + 5 %, or ~ 50 × 10 5 ha/year). The loss in SWHA due to operation of the hydropower system is small, but spatially and seasonally variable. During the spring freshet critical to juvenile salmonids, the total SWHA loss was $${63}_{-3}^{+2}$$ 63 - 3 + 2 %, with the hydropower system causing losses of 5–16% (depending on subsidence). Climate change and navigation have caused SWHA losses of $${5}_{-5}^{+16}$$ 5 - 5 + 16 % and $${4}_{-6}^{+14}$$ 4 - 6 + 14 %, respectively, but with high spatial variability; irrigation impacts have been small. Uncertain subsidence causes most of the uncertainty in estimates; the sum of the individual factors exceeds the total loss, because factors interact. Any factor that reduces mean or peak flows (reservoirs, diversion, and climate change) or alters tides and along-channel slope (navigation) becomes more impactful as assumed historical elevations are increased to account for subsidence, while levees matter less.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1978

Skylab/EREP application to ecological, geological, and oceanographic investigations of Delaware Bay

Skylab/EREP S190A and S190B film products were optically enhanced and visually interpreted to extract data suitable for; (1) mapping coastal land use; (2) inventorying wetlands vegetation; (3) monitoring tidal conditions; (4) observing suspended sediment patterns; (5) charting surface currents; (6) locating coastal fronts and water mass boundaries; (7) monitoring industrial and municipal waste dumps in the ocean; (8) determining the size and flow direction of river, bay and man-made discharge plumes; and (9) observing ship traffic. Film products were visually analyzed to identify and map ten land-use and vegetation categories at a scale of 1:125,000. Digital tapes from the multispectral scanner were used to prepare thematic maps of land use. Classification accuracies obtained by comparison of derived thematic maps of land-use with USGS-CARETS land-use maps in southern Delaware ranged from 44 percent to 100 percent.

Klemas, V.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Using Remotely Sensed Data and Watershed and Hydrodynamic Models to Evaluate the Effects of Land Cover Land Use Change on Aquatic Ecosystems in Mobile Bay, AL

Alabama coastal systems have been subjected to increasing pressure from a variety of activities including urban and rural development, shoreline modifications, industrial activities, and dredging of shipping and navigation channels. The impacts on coastal ecosystems are often observed through the use of indicator species. One such indicator species for aquatic ecosystem health is submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV). Watershed and hydrodynamic modeling has been performed to evaluate the impact of land cover land use (LCLU) change in the two counties surrounding Mobile Bay (Mobile and Baldwin) on SAV stressors and controlling factors (temperature, salinity, and sediment) in the Mobile Bay estuary. Watershed modeling using the Loading Simulation Package in C++ (LSPC) was performed for all watersheds contiguous to Mobile Bay for LCLU scenarios in 1948, 1992, 2001, and 2030. Remotely sensed Landsat-derived National Land Cover Data (NLCD) were used in the 1992 and 2001 simulations after having been reclassified to a common classification scheme. The Prescott Spatial Growth Model was used to project the 2030 LCLU scenario based on current trends. The LSPC model simulations provided output on changes in flow, temperature, and sediment for 22 discharge points into the estuary. These results were inputted in the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Computer Code (EFDC) hydrodynamic model to generate data on changes in temperature, salinity, and sediment on a grid throughout Mobile Bay and adjacent estuaries. The changes in the aquatic ecosystem were used to perform an ecological analysis to evaluate the impact on SAV habitat suitability. This is the key product benefiting the Mobile Bay coastal environmental managers that integrates the influences of temperature, salinity, and sediment due to LCLU driven flow changes with the restoration potential of SAVs. Data products and results are being integrated into NOAA s EcoWatch and Gulf of Mexico Data Atlas online systems for dissemination to coastal resource managers and stakeholders. Objective 1: Develop and utilize Land Use scenarios for Mobile and Baldwin Counties, AL as input to models to predict the affects on water properties (temperature,salinity,)for Mobile Bay through 2030. Objective 2: Evaluate the impact of land use change on seagrasses and SAV in Mobile Bay. Hypothesis: Urbanization will significantly increase surface flows and impact salinity and temperature variables that effect seagrasses and SAVs.

Al-Hamdan, Mohammad↗

NASA NTRS2012

Using Remotely Sensed Data and Watershed and Hydrodynamic Models to Evaluate the Effects of Land Cover Land Use Change on Aquatic Ecosystems in Mobile Bay, AL

Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.↗

NASA NTRS1980

SAR observations of coastal zone conditions

Applications of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) technology to the observation of coastal zones phenomena are detailed. The conditions observed include gravity wave detection, surf zone location, surface currents, and long-period 'surf beats'. Algorithms have been developed and successfully tested that determine significant wave and current parameters from the sea surface backscatter of microwave energy. Doppler information from the SAR optical correlator allows a rough estimation of near shore surface flow velocities that has been found in agreement with both theory and in situ observations as well. Seasat SAR data of the Scotland and North Carolina coasts are considered, as well as the results of bathymetric updating of coastal area charts.

Meadows, G. A.↗

DOE OSTI2020

3D characterisation and quantification of an offshore freshened groundwater system in the Canterbury Bight

Although offshore freshened groundwater (OFG) systems have been documented in numerous continental margins worldwide, their geometry, controls and emplacement dynamics remain poorly constrained. Here we integrate controlled-source electromagnetic, seismic reflection and borehole data with hydrological modelling to quantitatively characterise a previously unknown OFG system near Canterbury, New Zealand. The OFG system consists of one main, and two smaller, low salinity groundwater bodies. The main body extends up to 60 km from the coast and a seawater depth of 110 m. We attribute along-shelf variability in salinity to permeability heterogeneity due to permeable conduits and normal faults, and to recharge from rivers during sea level lowstands. A meteoric origin of the OFG and active groundwater migration from onshore are inferred. However, modelling results suggest that the majority of the OFG was emplaced via topographically-driven flow during sea level lowstands in the last 300 ka. Global volumetric estimates of OFG will be significantly revised if active margins, with steep coastal topographies like the Canterbury margin, are considered.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Impact of inland boundary conditions on seawater intrusion modeling in stratified coastal aquifers under sea-level rise

This study systematically examines the impact of inland boundary conditions on seawater intrusion modeling in general stratified coastal aquifers under sea-level rise (SLR). We derived analytical solutions for seawater wedge toe positions in stratified aquifers with general head boundary (GHB) conditions and compiled solutions for constant head boundary (CHB), constant flux boundary (CFB), and GHB conditions in both homogeneous and stratified aquifers. Additionally, we introduced the concept of equivalent boundary conditions and developed equations to ensure consistent steady-state toe positions across different boundary types. Unlike previous studies focusing on specific layering configurations, we conducted a comprehensive sensitivity analysis of seawater intrusion in general stratified aquifers using transmissivity centroid elevation (TCE). Our results show that SLR generally exacerbates seawater intrusion, with unconfined aquifers exhibiting higher sensitivity across all boundary conditions. Among boundary types, CHB conditions were the most sensitive to SLR, CFB the least, and GHB showed an intermediate response depending on its distance from the model boundary. Furthermore, seawater intrusion increases with the TCE of the stratified aquifer under SLR, suggesting that high-permeability or preferential flow layers near the surface amplify the impact of SLR. These findings emphasize the importance of selecting appropriate boundary conditions when evaluating SLR-driven seawater intrusion in stratified coastal aquifers.

Boundary condition↗

DOE OSTI2023

Site Selection for Field Testing of a Marine Hydrokinetic Turbine Platform to Serve as a Floating Unmanned Mobile Recharging Station for Aerial Drones

Abstract Expanding applications of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in coastal areas suggests a need for stations along or close to the coast where the UAV batteries can be easily recharged. A small-scale low flow marine current turbine in support of a floating autonomous recharge station for small UAVs has been designed and assembled at Florida Atlantic University and is being prepared for field testing. Surveys of identified test sites in the Intracoastal Waterways and at open ocean locations are being conducted to determine their suitability in meeting resource, system design and permitting requirements. A sensor platform has been developed for measuring local currents at the identified sites in support of resource characterization. Two out of the eight sites surveyed in the Intracoastal Waterways are found to meet the field-testing requirements for current resource, water depth, and sea bottom conditions. Planned field testing will include parametric characterization studies of the performance of the current turbine for a range of turbine blade configurations, current speeds, turbine wheel submergence levels, and test site location (channeled flow vs open ocean flow).

McKinney, Adriana Lynell↗

NASA NTRS2007

Solutions Network Formulation Report. The Potential Contribution of the Ocean Surface Topography Mission to the General NOAA Oil Monitoring Environment

Data collected by the OSTM could be used to provide a solution for the GNOME DST. GNOME, developed by NOAA?s Office of Response and Restoration Hazardous Materials Response Division, geospatially models oil spill trajectories using wind, current, river flow, and tidal data. Data collected by the OSTM would supply information about ocean currents and wind speeds. This Candidate Solution is in alignment with the Coastal Management, Water Management, Disaster Management, Public Health, Ecological Forecasting, and Homeland Security National Applications and will benefit society by improving the capabilities of emergency responders who evaluate an oil spill?s probable threat.

Hilbert, Kent↗

DOE OSTI2020

Modeling Functional Organic Chemistry in Arctic Rivers: An Idealized Siberian System

Rivers of the Arctic will become ever more important for the global climate, since they carry a majority of continental dissolved organic carbon flux into the rapidly changing polar ocean. Aqueous organics comprise a wide array of functional groups, several of which are likely to impact coastal and open water biophysical properties. Light attenuation, interfacial films, aerosol formation, gas release and momentum exchange can all be cited. We performed Lagrangian kinetic modeling for the evolution of riverine organic chemistry as the molecules in question make their way from the highlands to Arctic outlets. Classes as diverse as the proteins, sugars, lipids, re-condensates, humics, bio-tracers and small volatiles are all included. Our reduced framework constitutes an idealized northward flow driving a major hydrological discharge rate and primarily representing the Russian Lena. Mountainous, high solute and tundra sources are all simulated, and they meet up at several points between soil and delta process reactors. Turnover rates are parameterized beginning with extrapolated coastal values imposed along a limited tributary network, with connections between different terrestrial sub-ecologies. Temporal variation of our total dissolved matter most closely resembles the observations when we focus on the restricted removal and low initial carbon loads, suggesting relatively slow transformation along the water course. Thus, channel combinations and mixing must play a dominant role. Nevertheless, microbial and photochemical losses help determine the final concentrations for most species. Chemical evolution is distinct for the various functionalities, with special contributions from pre- and post-reactivity in soil and delta waters. Several functions are combined linearly to represent the collective chromophoric dissolved matter, characterized here by its absorption. Tributaries carry the signature of lignin phenols to segregate tundra versus taiga sources, and special attention is paid to the early then marine behaviors of low molecular weight volatiles. Heteropolycondensates comprise the largest percentage of reactive carbon in our simulations due to recombination/accumulation, and they tend to be preeminent at the mouth. Outlet concentrations of individual structures such as amino acids and absorbers lie above threshold values for biophysical influence, on the monolayer and light attenuation. The extent of coastal spreading is examined through targeted regional box modeling, relying on salinity and color for calibration. In some cases, plumes reach the scale of peripheral arctic seas, and amplification is expected during upcoming decades. Conclusions are mapped from the Lena to other boreal discharges, and future research questions are outlined regarding the bonding type versus mass release as permafrost degrades. Dynamic aqueous organic coupling is recommended for polar system models, from headwaters to coastal diluent.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Understanding and modeling current and future coastal wetland methane dynamics (Final Report)

The coastal terrestrial-aquatic interface (TAI) is a highly dynamic component of the Earth system that plays a critical role in biogeochemical cycling. Due to its dynamic nature, the processes that regulate decomposition and methane (CH 4 ) emissions are of greater significance at the TAI than in upland systems. Despite this, we have limited mechanistic understanding of how climate stressors interact to regulate the electron acceptors and donors that determine decomposition pathways within TAIs, including the generation of hot spots and hot moments. Accurately modeling these processes is critical for incorporating the coastal TAI into Earth systems models, such as DOE’s E3SM. With previous DOE support, we adapted an aerobic terrestrial representation of decomposition using PFLOTRAN, a reactive flow and transport model, and added anerobic decomposition pathways, salinity, and oxygen (O 2 ) that fluctuates independently of water table level. However, because this model (PFLOTRAN TAI ) is based on decomposition rates and organic matter carbon to nitrogen ratios from terrestrial systems, its performance in TAI systems is currently limited by the lack of empirical data to properly parameterize variables. In addition, while PFLOTRAN TAI can simulate movement of O 2 into sediments, it is not currently capable of tracking the movement of CH 4 gas through plant tissues due to both current model structure and lack of available data. Our overall objective of the project was the increase our mechanistic understanding of CH 4 dynamics in response to environmental change, such that we can improve the representation of these dynamics in PFLOTRAN. We installed automated flux chambers in a new field-scale active soil warming experiment and set up marsh organs (mesocosms) to test effects of warming, flooding, and salinity. This resulted in a new dataset consisting of chamber-level CH 4 flux measurements across multiple sites, ecological conditions, and timeframes, as well as corresponding measurements on porewater chemistry, soil carbon quality, plant biomass, and redox reaction rates. Using these data, we improved PFLOTRAN TAI to more accurately model CH 4 dynamics and successfully tested our hypotheses. This grant contributed to the professional development of 3 postdocs, 4 undergraduate interns, 4 teacher interns, 17 technicians, and 15 participatory scientists. The automated chamber technology designed for this grant has also been shared with multiple new projects.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1989

Rivers in the sea - Can we quantify pigments in the Amazon and the Orinoco River plumes from space?

Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) images of the western tropical Atlantic (1979-1982) were combined into monthly mean surface pigment fields. These suggest that Amazon River water flows along northeastern South America directly toward the Caribbean sea early in the year. After June, however, the North Brazil Current is shunted eastward, carrying a large fraction of Amazon water into the North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC). This eastward flow causes diminished flow through the Caribbean, which permits northwestward dispersal of Orinoco River water due to local Ekman forcing. The Orinoco plume crosses the Caribbean, leading to seasonal variation in surface salinity near Puerto Rico. At least 50 percent of the pigment concentration estimated in these plumes seems due to viable phytoplankton.

Muller-Karger, Frank E.↗

DOE OSTI2025

COMPASS-FME Synoptic Site Tree Greenhouse Gas Concentrations

These data are tree stem greenhouse gas concentrations collected from tree gas wells at some of the COMPASS-FME (Coastal Observations, Mechanisms, and Predictions Across Systems and Scales; see https://compass.pnnl.gov/) 'synoptic' sites in the Chesapeake Bay region: Moneystump (MSM), Goodwin Islands (GWI), and GCReW (GCW). The sap flow monitoring trees at these sites in the Upland (UP) and Transition (TR) zones were cored and had gas wells installed at breast height. There were also some dead standing trees cored, gas well installed, and sampled at MSM and GWI. The GCW UP samples overlap with the TEMPEST experiment control plot, so the GCW UP data was pulled from the TEMPEST page and included here. These data provide crucial information about possible pathways for the greenhouse gas (carbon dioxide and methane, CO2 and CH4 respectively) production and emission (or in the case of CH4, perhaps taken up from) the atmosphere.All data are plain text CSV (comma separated value) files and require no special software to read.Updated 2025-10-09 to fix two missing dates (lines 77 and 78 in the data file).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2009

Evaluating the Impact of Land Use Change on Submerged Aquatic Vegetation Stressors in Mobile Bay

Alabama coastal systems have been subjected to increasing pressure from a variety of activities including urban and rural development, shoreline modifications, industrial activities, and dredging of shipping and navigation channels. The impacts on coastal ecosystems are often observed through the use of indicator species. One such indicator species for aquatic ecosystem health is submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV). Watershed and hydrodynamic modeling has been performed to evaluate the impact of land use change in Mobile and Baldwin counties on SAV stressors and controlling factors (temperature, salinity, and sediment) in Mobile Bay. Watershed modeling using the Loading Simulation Package in C++ (LSPC) was performed for all watersheds contiguous to Mobile Bay for land use scenarios in 1948, 1992, 2001, and 2030. Landsat-derived National Land Cover Data (NLCD) were used in the 1992 and 2001 simulations after having been reclassified to a common classification scheme. The Prescott Spatial Growth Model was used to project the 2030 land use scenario based on current trends. The LSPC model simulations provided output on changes in flow, temperature, and sediment for 22 discharge points into the Bay. Theses results were inputted in the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Computer Code (EFDC) hydrodynamic model to generate data on changes in temperature, salinity, and sediment on a grid with four vertical profiles throughout Mobile Bay. The changes in the aquatic ecosystem were used to perform an ecological analysis to evaluate the impact on SAV habitat suitability. This is the key product benefiting the Mobile Bay coastal environmental managers that integrates the influences of temperature, salinity, and sediment due to land use driven flow changes with the restoration potential of SAVs.

Al-Hamdan, Mohammad↗

NASA NTRS2022

Arctic Biogeochemical and Optical Properties of Dissolved Organic Matter Across River to Sea Gradients

Arctic landscapes are warming and becoming wetter due to changes in precipitation and the timing of snowmelt which consequently alters seasonal runoff and river discharge patterns. These changes in hydrology lead to increased mobilization and transport of terrestrial dissolved organic matter (DOM) to Arctic coastal seas where significant impacts on biogeochemical cycling can occur. Here, we present measurements of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and chromophoric DOM (CDOM) in the Yukon River-to-Bering Sea system and two river plumes on the Alaska North Slope which flow into the Beaufort Sea. Our sampling characterized optical and biogeochemical properties of DOM during high and low river discharge periods for the Yukon River-Bering Sea system. The average DOC concentration at the multiple Yukon River mouths ranged from a high of 10.36 mg C L-1 during the ascending limb of the 2019 freshet (late May), 6.4 mg C L-1 during the descending limb of the 2019 freshet (late June), and a low of 3.86 mg C L-1 during low river discharge in August 2018. CDOM absorption coefficient at 412 nm (aCDOM(412)) averaged 8.23 m-1, 5.07 m-1, and 1.9 m-1, respectively. Several approaches to model DOC concentration based on its relationship with CDOM properties demonstrated cross-system seasonal and spatial robustness for these Arctic coastal systems despite spanning an order of magnitude decrease in DOC concentration from the lower Yukon River to the Northern Bering Sea as well as the North Slope systems. “Snapshot” fluxes of DOC and CDOM across the Yukon River Delta to Norton Sound were calculated from our measurements and modeled water fluxes forced with upstream USGS river gauge data. Our findings suggest that during high river flow, DOM reaches the delta largely unaltered by inputs or physical and biogeochemical processing and that the transformations of Yukon River DOM largely occur in the plume. However, during low summer discharge, multiple processes including local precipitation events, microbial decomposition, photochemistry, and likely others can alter the DOM properties within the lower Yukon River and Delta prior to flowing into Norton Sound.

Arctic↗

DOE OSTI2026

Compound flood simulations indicate rising public exposure to sewage-contaminated waters in Waikīkī, Hawai‘i

Waikīkī, Hawai‘i serves as a valuable case study for flood vulnerability due to its low elevation, present-day exposure to multiple flood sources, and role as the state’s economic engine. This study applies the high-resolution, open-source WRF-Hydro-CUFA (Coastal Urban Flood Application) model to simulate compound flood interactions among pluvial, fluvial, coastal, storm drain-driven, and subsurface processes, and to evaluate how flood characteristics in Waikīkī evolve under projected sea-level rise (SLR). Simulated water levels in an estuarine drainage canal, serving as the primary outlet for gravity-flow drainage from Waikīkī, show strong agreement with observations (r ≥ 0.935, R 2 ≥ 0.874), accurately reproducing flooding observed during recent 5-year and 50-year storm events. Simulations incorporating SLR demonstrate a shift in dominant flood drivers as sea levels rise. In addition, results identify critical thresholds at which elevated estuarine tailwater conditions cause widespread drainage backflow, eventually occurring in the absence of rainfall. These findings suggest that tidally driven flooding will progressively dominate over rainfall-driven events, increasing public exposure to highly contaminated canal and groundwater sources. The results underscore the urgent need to integrate water quality issues and drainage failure into coastal flood management strategies for low-lying urban environments, particularly those reliant on polluted estuarine waterways for stormwater management.

Compound flooding↗