Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “cloud forecast”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

A Constrained Data Assimilation Algorithm Based on GSI Hybrid 3D-EnVar and Its Application

Abstract Data assimilation (DA) at mesoscales is important for severe weather forecasts, yet the techniques of data assimilation at this scale remain a challenge. This study introduces dynamical constraints in the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) three-dimensional ensemble variational (3D-EnVar) data assimilation algorithm to enable the use of high-resolution surface observations of precipitation to improve atmospheric analysis at mesoscales. The constraints use the conservations of mass and moisture. Mass constraint suppresses the unphysical high-frequency oscillation, while moisture conservation constrains the atmospheric states to conform with the observed high-resolution precipitation. We show that the constrained data assimilation (CDA) algorithm significantly reduced the spurious residuals of the mass and moisture budgets compared to the original data assimilation (ODA). A case study is presented for a squall line over the Southern Great Plains on 20 May 2011 during Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E) of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program by using ODA or CDA analysis as initial condition of forecasts. The state variables, and the location and intensity of the squall line are better simulated in the CDA experiment. Results show how surface observation of precipitation can be used to improve atmospheric analysis through data assimilation by using the dynamical constraints of mass and moisture conservations.

Wang, Jia↗
DOE OSTI2020

Synergetic Use of the WSR-88D Radars, GOES-R Satellites, and Lightning Networks to Study Microphysical Characteristics of Hurricanes

Abstract This study analyzes the microphysics and precipitation pattern of Hurricanes Harvey (2017) and Florence (2018) in both the eyewall and outer rainband regions. From the retrievals by a satellite red–green–blue scheme, the outer rainbands show a strong convective structure while the inner eyewall has less convective vigor (i.e., weaker upper-level reflectivities and electrification), which may be related to stronger vertical wind shear that hinders fast vertical motions. The WSR-88D column-vertical profiles further confirm that the outer rainband clouds have strong vertical motion and large ice-phase hydrometeor formation aloft, which correlates well with 3D Lightning Mapping Array source counts in height and time. From the results from this study, it is determined that the inner eyewall region is dominated by warm rain, whereas the external rainband region contains intense mixed-phase precipitation. External rainbands are defined here as those that reside outside of the main hurricane circulation, associated with surface tropical storm wind speeds. The synergy of satellite and radar dual-polarization parameters is instrumental in distinguishing between the key microphysical features of intense convective rainbands and the warm-rain-dominated eyewall regions within the hurricanes. Substantial amounts of ice aloft and intense updrafts in the external rainbands are indicative of heavy surface precipitation, which can have important implications for severe weather warnings and quantitative precipitation forecasts. The novel part of this study is to combine ground-based radar measurement with satellite observations to study hurricane microphysical structure from surface to cloud top so as to fill in the gaps between the two observational techniques.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2020

Impact of biomass burning aerosols on radiation, clouds, and precipitation over the Amazon: relative importance of aerosol–cloud and aerosol–radiation interactions

Biomass burning (BB) aerosols can influence regional and global climate through interactions with radiation, clouds, and precipitation. Here, we investigate the impact of BB aerosols on the energy balance and hydrological cycle over the Amazon Basin during the dry season. We performed simulations with a fully coupled meteorology–chemistry model, the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem), for a range of different BB emission scenarios to explore and characterize nonlinear effects and individual contributions from aerosol–radiation interactions (ARIs) and aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs). The ARIs of BB aerosols tend to suppress low-level liquid clouds by local warming and increased evaporation and to facilitate the formation of high-level ice clouds by enhancing updrafts and condensation at high altitudes. In contrast, the ACIs of BB aerosol particles tend to enhance the formation and lifetime of low-level liquid clouds by providing more cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and to suppress the formation of high-level ice clouds by reducing updrafts and condensable water vapor at high altitudes (>8 km). For scenarios representing the lower and upper limits of BB emission estimates for recent years (2002–2016), we obtained total regional BB aerosol radiative forcings of –0.2 and 1.5 W m –2 , respectively, showing that the influence of BB aerosols on the regional energy balance can range from modest cooling to strong warming. We find that ACIs dominate at low BB emission rates and low aerosol optical depth (AOD), leading to an increased cloud liquid water path (LWP) and negative radiative forcing, whereas ARIs dominate at high BB emission rates and high AOD, leading to a reduction of LWP and positive radiative forcing. In all scenarios, BB aerosols led to a decrease in the frequency of occurrence and rate of precipitation, caused primarily by ACI effects at low aerosol loading and by ARI effects at high aerosol loading. The dependence of precipitation reduction on BB aerosol loading is greater in a strong convective regime than under weakly convective conditions. Overall, our results show that ACIs tend to saturate at high aerosol loading, whereas the strength of ARIs continues to increase and plays a more important role in highly polluted episodes and regions. This should hold not only for BB aerosols over the Amazon, but also for other light-absorbing aerosols such as fossil fuel combustion aerosols in industrialized and densely populated areas. The importance of ARIs at high aerosol loading highlights the need for accurately characterizing aerosol optical properties in the investigation of aerosol effects on clouds, precipitation, and climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Simulating the Transport and Rupture of Pollen in the Atmosphere

Pollen, one type of primary biological aerosol particle (PBAP), is emitted from the terrestrial biosphere and can undergo physical changes in the atmosphere via particle rupture. To examine the fate of pollen and its atmospheric processing, a pollen emission and transport scheme is coupled to the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem). We simulate the emission of pollen and its impacts on the cloud properties and precipitation in the Southern Great Plains from 12 to 19 April 2013, a period with both high pollen emissions and convective activity. We conduct a suite of ensemble runs that simulate primary pollen and three different pollen rupture mechanisms that generate subpollen particles, including (a) high humidity-induced surface rupture, (b) high humidity-induced in-atmosphere plus surface rupture, and (c) lightning-induced rupture, where in-cloud and cloud-to-ground lightning strikes trigger pollen rupture events. When relative humidity is high (>80%), coarse primary pollen (~1 μg m –3 ) is converted into fine subpollen particles (~1.2e –4 μg m –3 ), which produces 80% more subpollen particles than lightning-induced rupture. The in-atmosphere humidity-driven rupture predominantly produces subpollen particles, which is further enhanced during a frontal thunderstorm. During strong convection, vertical updrafts lift primary pollen and subpollen particles (~0.5e –4 μg m –3 ) to the upper troposphere (~12 km) and laterally transports the ruptured pollen in the anvil top outflow. In regions of high pollen and strong convection, ruptured pollen can influence warm cloud formation by decreasing low cloud (<4 km) cloud water mixing ratios and increasing ice phase hydrometeors aloft (>10 km)

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The winter central Arctic surface energy budget: A model evaluation using observations from the MOSAiC campaign

This study evaluates the simulation of wintertime (15 October, 2019, to 15 March, 2020) statistics of the central Arctic near-surface atmosphere and surface energy budget observed during the MOSAiC campaign with short-term forecasts from 7 state-of-the-art operational and experimental forecast systems. Five of these systems are fully coupled ocean-sea ice-atmosphere models. Forecast systems need to simultaneously simulate the impact of radiative effects, turbulence, and precipitation processes on the surface energy budget and near-surface atmospheric conditions in order to produce useful forecasts of the Arctic system. This study focuses on processes unique to the Arctic, such as, the representation of liquid-bearing clouds at cold temperatures and the representation of a persistent stable boundary layer. It is found that contemporary models still struggle to maintain liquid water in clouds at cold temperatures. Given the simple balance between net longwave radiation, sensible heat flux, and conductive ground flux in the wintertime Arctic surface energy balance, a bias in one of these components manifests as a compensating bias in other terms. This study highlights the different manifestations of model bias and the potential implications on other terms. Three general types of challenges are found within the models evaluated: representing the radiative impact of clouds, representing the interaction of atmospheric heat fluxes with sub-surface fluxes (i.e., snow and ice properties), and representing the relationship between stability and turbulent heat fluxes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Connecting the Radiative Influences of Aerosol upon the Mass Flux Profiles of Shallow Cumuli across the Southeast Atlantic Ocean Basin and its Boundaries (Final Report)

The Atlantic Ocean covers approximately 25% of Earth’s surface and the atmosphere above it is home to a complex array of clouds and aerosols that have important influences on regional and global weather and climate. These influences must be accurately depicted in short range, medium range, seasonal, and climate forecast models. Conditions over the tropical Atlantic are particularly complex due to continental scale plumes of dust from the Sahara Desert and smoke from agricultural burning in Africa that drift across the Atlantic Ocean basin toward the Americas. These plumes are often found meandering in the lower atmosphere above shallow tropical clouds that form above the ocean surface, presumably mingling with these clouds on occasion due to convective mixing processes. Elevated dust and smoke particles absorb incoming sunlight and substantially warm the marine atmosphere in the layer in which they are present. This warming may alter the thermal stability of the marine atmosphere and may throttle or enhance the development of clouds, change their internal structure and the rate at which they precipitate. Alternatively, it may isolate the lower atmosphere from drier layers above enabling water vapor to accumulate near the ocean surface potentially leading to the development of deeper convection. Our study was organized around the principal concept of determining the impact of African smoke and dust plumes upon cloud development at ASI and understanding how a popular shallow convection parameterization used in models responds to the presence of this aerosol. We analyzed observations collected during the US Department of Energy (DOE) Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds (LASIC) campaign using the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program’s Mobile Facility #1 (AMF-1), which was deployed to Ascension Island (ASI) in Southeastern Atlantic for a one-year period. Ascension Island is immediately downwind from an African source of these plumes, but far enough removed to enable the lower atmosphere to have reacted to their presence. A main goal of our study was to compute radiative heating rate profiles over Ascension Island and along the trajectory from the biomass burning regions along coastal Africa to Ascension Island. To compute the radiative heating rate due to aerosols and clouds, we employed observed profiles of temperature, humidity, and clouds from LASIC alongside aerosol optical properties from the Modern-era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2), as input for the Rapid Radiation Transfer Model (RRTM). Radiative heating was also assessed across the southeast Atlantic Ocean using an ensemble of back trajectories from the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model. We were successful in this effort and the resulting publication is already being cited despite its relatively short lifetime in the literature. The second part of our study involved the process-level representation of the clouds observed over the Southeastern Atlantic in models. Our initial task, upon which the balance of this portion of the study depended, was to evaluate the representativeness of the clouds observed by AMF-1. What orographic influence did Ascension Island have on the measured cloud structure? We set out to answer this question by trying to separate observations that were clearly indicative of orographic forcing from those that were representative of open ocean. The siting of AMF-1, which was 340-m above sea-level on the slope of a steep escarpment, proved demonstrably problematic for cloud process measurements. Despite considerable effort using multiple approaches including artificial intelligence (AI), we were unable to successfully compensate for the orographic forcing present at the AMF-1 site on ASI and, hence, produce process-level summaries of the convective mass flux representative of open ocean over the Southeastern Atlantic. Even though the project has officially ended, we are making a final attempt using two new types of clustering algorithm (i.e., AI) on the recommendation of a former student, who is an expert in this area. Since we have only recently begun to test these new AI schemes, the recommendations from the second part of our project outlined below are based on our experience at the time of this report.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Importance of Convective Stage on Out-of-Cloud Convectively Induced Turbulence from High-Resolution Simulations

Turbulence (clear-air, mountain wave, convectively induced) is an aviation hazard that is a challenge to forecast due to the coarse resolution ultilized in operational weather models. Turbulence indices are commonly used to aid pilots in avoiding turbulence, but these indices have been designed and calibrated for midlatitude clear-air turbulence prediction (e.g., the Ellrod index). A significant limitation with current convectively induced turbulence (CIT) prediction is the lack of storm stage dependency. In this study, six high-resolution simulations of tropical oceanic and midlatitude continental convection are performed to characterize the turbulent environment near various convective types during the developing and mature stages. Second-order structure functions, a diagnostic commonly used to identify turbulence in turbulence prediction systems, are used to characterize the probability of turbulence for various convective types. Turbulence likelihood was found to be independent of region (i.e., tropical vs midlatitude) but dependent on convective stage. The probability of turbulence increased near developing convection for the majority of cases. Additional analysis of static stability and vertical wind shear, indicators of turbulence potential, showed that the convective environment near developing convection was more favorable for turbulence production than mature convection. Near developing convection, static stability decreased and vertical wind shear increased. Vertical wind shear near mature and developing convection was found to be weakly correlated to turbulence intensity in both the tropics and the midlatitudes. Finally, this study emphasizes the need for turbulence avoidance guidelines for the aviation community that are dependent on convective stage.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty quantification and optimization of precipitating hydrometeor parameters for winter precipitation in a cloud microphysics scheme

The precipitating hydrometeor parameters used in cloud microphysics schemes carry inherent uncertainties. The quantification of these uncertainties, together with parameter optimization, can significantly improve precipitation forecasts. This study investigates the effects of 13 parameters in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Double-Moment 6-class (WDM6) microphysics scheme, which define the hydrometeor characteristics such as fall velocity–diameter and mass–diameter relationships, as well as the shape parameter of the drop size distribution for precipitating particles such as rain, snow, and graupel on simulated winter precipitation. A comparison between the model's pre-defined parameters and observations from the International Collaborative Experiments for the PyeongChang 2018 Olympic and Paralympic winter games (ICE-POP 2018) field campaign reveals that the fall velocity–diameter relationship for rain, the mass–diameter relationships for snow and graupel, and the shape parameters for all precipitating particles in the WDM6 scheme deviate from the median values observed by the two-dimensional video disdrometer (2DVD). To quantify parameter sensitivities, a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) of 256 simulations was conducted within parameter ranges constrained by 2DVD observations for three winter precipitation cases. Bayesian optimization was then applied to identify parameter sets that minimized the root mean square error (RMSE) for each case, achieving reductions of up to 30.2 %. These results demonstrate that ensemble-based uncertainty quantification and parameter optimization can help identify key parameters and provide a pathway to improving precipitation simulation performance. In addition, measurement sites can be strategically selected based on regions that show high sensitivity to variations in hydrometeor characteristic parameters.

Bayesian optimization↗
DOE OSTI2021

An efficient method to identify uncertainties of WRF-Solar variables in forecasting solar irradiance using a tangent linear sensitivity analysis

Uncertainty in predicting solar energy resources introduces major challenges in power system management and necessitates the development of reliable probabilistic solar forecasts. As the first part of the development of probabilistic forecasts based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model with solar extensions (WRF-Solar), this study presents a tangent linear approach to identify input variables responsible for the largest uncertainties in predicting surface solar irradiance and clouds. A tangent linear analysis is capable of efficiently investigating sensitivities of output variables with respect to various input variables of WRF-Solar because this approach avoids the computational burden of perturbing the initial conditions of individual input variables. We develop tangent linear models (TLMs) for six WRF-Solar physics packages that control the formation and dissipation of clouds and solar radiation, and we evaluate the validity of TLMs using a linearity test. The tangent linear sensitivity analysis is conducted under various scenarios based on satellite observations and model simulations to consider realistic input conditions. A simple method is used to quantify the impact of the uncertainty of input variables on the output variables from the TLMs. The results demonstrate that uncertainties in the output variables that are the focus of this study—including global horizontal irradiance, direct normal irradiance, cloud mixing ratio, cloud tendency, cloud fraction, and sensible and latent heat fluxes—are highly sensitive to uncertainties in 14 input variables. This study indicates that the tangent linear method can identify key variables of physics modules in WRF-Solar that can be stochastically perturbed to generate ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity Study for Forecasting Variables of WRF-Solar Using a Tangent Linear Approach

Integrating solar generation in recent years has highlighted the need for improved accuracy in predicting solar power. Confidence in solar power forecasting can be achieved by designing an ensemble that provides reliable probabilistic information for solar radiation with reduced uncertainty and error. Ideally, ensemble members are created through the optimized perturbation of the initial conditions in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Tangent linear models are capable of efficiently investigating the sensitivity of solar radiation to model input parameters because they do not require individual perturbation of each variable. This sensitivity study using tangent linear models provide us the capability to identify the right variables to perturb in an ensemble prediction system. In this study, we developed tangent linear models for WRF-Solar modules that directly impact the computation of solar radiation and the simulation of cloud formation and dissipation including the Fast All-sky Model for Solar Applications (FARMS), the Noah land surface model (LSM), the Thompson microphysics, the Mello-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN) boundary layer parameterization, and the Deng scheme for a shallow-convection parameterization. A sensitivity analysis was conducted under various scenarios based on satellite observations and model simulations from the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) and WRF-Solar, respectively. Critical forecasting variables that are highly sensitive to the forecasting of global horizontal irradiance (GHI), direct normal irradiance (DNI), cloud mixing ratio, cloud tendency, cloud fraction, and sensible and latent heat fluxes were determined using the relevant WRF-Solar module. This study will be used as a guidance on future research leading to high-quality probabilistic solar forecasting. In this presentation, we discuss the validation of tangent linear approach for WRF-Solar modules and illustrate how the sensitivity results are valuable in the improvement of probabilistic solar prediction.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Notable Contributions of Aerosols to the Predictability of Hail Precipitation

There is an increasing concern of the uncertainty produced by aerosols in forecasting precipitation including hail precipitation. This study provides an assessment of the uncertainties in hail and total precipitation by varying initial cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) number concentration (CCNC) and meteorological conditions based on 1200 cloud-resolving simulations of an idealized hailstorm. Although the meteorological perturbations produce large uncertainties in hail precipitation (including rate and maximum hail size) as well as total precipitation, varying CCNC by an order of magnitude can cause even larger uncertainties, especially pairing with the thermodynamics perturbation (i.e., potential temperature and water vapor). Changing CCNC modifies the predictability of hail precipitation, with a higher predictability in moderate polluted environments compared with the very clean and polluted environments. Increasing CCNC consistently leads a non-monotonic response of ensemble mean with an optimal CCNC for hail precipitation but a monotonic decreasing response of total precipitation with the various meteorological perturbations, meaning the initial meteorological perturbations does not qualitatively change the aerosol effects. Investigation with 10-fold reduced initial perturbation further supports the large CCN effects are not dependent of metrological perturbations. The findings suggest the importance of considering CCN effects in severe weather simulations and forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Improving Process Level Understanding of Boundary Layer Winds over the Northeast U.S. Shelf: The Third Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP3)

The third Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP3), a U.S. Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration sponsored investigation, sought to improve understanding of the physical phenomena in the atmosphere and ocean that dictate the structure and variability of wind and thermodynamic fields within the marine atmospheric boundary layer. WFIP3 focused on mesoscale and submesoscale flows -- including sea breezes, low-level jets, low-level clouds, and coastal storms -- and the ability of advanced numerical model parameterizations to represent them within fully coupled oceanic and atmospheric modeling systems and foundational weather forecast models. WFIP3 conducted a comprehensive 18-month observational study over the Northeast U.S. outer continental shelf, a high-use coastal zone, using a 3D multiscale sensor array to highly resolve the temporal, vertical, and horizontal structure of the coupled atmospheric and oceanic boundary layers. Multiple land-based study sites adjacent to the coastal ocean observed surface meteorology and vertical profiles of atmospheric properties via passive infrared and microwave radiometers, active lidars and radars, and radiosondes. At sea, an array of surface flux buoys and two vertical profiling lidar buoys observed both atmospheric and oceanic properties, augmented by land-based oceanographic radar systems and routine ship-based surveys. Intensive observations of the marine atmospheric boundary layer over the ocean was done from an air-sea interaction flux tower and extended deployments of a large autonomous barge platform. Numerous critical forecasting phenomena were observed that are being evaluated within regional coupled and uncoupled modeling systems, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's foundational High-Resolution Rapid Refresh forecast model.

Kirincich, Anthony↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predicting Frigid Mixed-Phase Clouds for Pristine Coastal Antarctica

Supercooled water is common in the clouds near coastal Antarctica and occasionally occurs at temperatures at or below -30°C. Yet the ice physics in most regional and global numerical models will glaciate out these clouds. This presents a challenge for the simulation of highly supercooled clouds that were observed at McMurdo, Antarctica during the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE) project during 2015–2017. The polar optimized version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (Polar WRF) with the recently developed two-moment P3 microphysics scheme was used to simulate observed supercooled liquid water cases during March and November 2016. Nudging of the simulations to observed rawinsonde profiles and Antarctic automatic weather station observations provided increased realism and much greater cloud water amounts. Furthermore, sensitivity tests that adjust the ice physics for extremely low ice nucleating particle (INP) concentrations decrease cloud ice and increases the cloud liquid water closer to observed amounts. In these tests, a liquid layer near cloud top is simulated, in agreement with observations. Accurate representation of INP concentrations appears to be critical for the simulation of coastal Antarctic clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Automated construction of clear-sky dictionary from all-sky imager data

All-sky imagers (ASIs) have significant promise as scalable sensors for short-term solar irradiance forecasting. Many of the current computational techniques that use ASIs for this purpose rely on collections of clear-sky images indexed by time of day, solar angle, or both, called clear-sky dictionaries (CSDs). These CSDs act as baselines against which images can be compared to locate and classify clouds within the image frame. CSDs are often compiled by hand, where individuals visually inspect collections of images one at a time to find clear-sky images. This process is not scalable, and it is prone to error. This paper proposes an automated, nonparametric alternative that uses the principles of digital image processing to find clear-sky images within a set of images taken over several days. We use ground-truth measurements of the clearness index to assess the performance of our method, and we show that the images it selects accurately correspond to clear-sky images. We also compare our proposal, which is nonparametric, with a state-of-the-art parametric method. The numerical results indicate that the performance of the method proposed here is superior.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Forecast of All-Sky Solar Radiation Using Enhanced WRF-Solar: Preprint

This study presents enhancements of the Weather Research and Forecasting model with solar extensions (WRF-Solar) to provide probabilistic forecasts of solar radiation. Our approach builds ensemble WRF-Solar runs by introducing stochastic perturbations of variables that produce the largest uncertainties in predicting surface irradiance and clouds. The key variables are identified using tangent linear sensitivity analysis of six physics packages responsible for all-sky irradiance variability. An optimal strategy to stochastically perturb the selected variables is developed and applied to WRF-Solar to generate ensemble members for day-ahead solar prediction. The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is used to validate the ensemble forecast at arbitrary locations on the model grid. Preliminary results indicate that the proposed technique can potentially produce WRF-Solar ensembles providing reliable information of solar prediction uncertainty. This study describes the implemented methodology and initial results as well as future research to improve ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts with WRF-Solar.

all-sky↗
DOE OSTI2022

Analysis of aerosol cloud interactions with a consistent signal of meteorology and other influencing parameters

Quantifying the impact of aerosols on cloud micro/macro physical properties and estimating the signature of Aerosol Cloud Interactions (ACI) is one of the challenging tasks in atmospheric sciences. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ERA-5 reanalysis data are employed to systematically study the ACI over the monsoon region in Pakistan. Based on the monsoon occurrence and rainfall intensity, the whole region is divided into three sub-regions labeled as highly intensive (R1), moderately intensive (R2) and weak (R3) monsoon region. The results indicate that the monthly mean Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) peaks in the summer monsoon months (Jun, Jul, Aug, Sep). Here, the well-known Twomey effect whereby the Cloud Droplet Radius (CDR) decreases with increasing AOD holds only over R3; the opposite effects (Anti-Twomey effect) are found over R1 and R2, all passing the test of statistical significance (p<0.05). The multi-year AOD is found to be positively correlated with Cloud Liquid Water Path (CLWP) and Cloud Optical Depth (COD) over R1 and R2, suggesting that thicker clouds containing more water droplets are formed in polluted atmosphere. Over R3, decreases in CLWP and COD are found with increasing AOD only when AOD is less than~0.325. The analysis of ACI over R1 and R2 during the winter months shows similar but stronger responses of CDR, CLWP and COD to the variation in AOD. The weaker responses during the summer monsoon season may attributed to the occurrence of high level cloud and unstable atmospheric condition. Further investigation of the influences of Relative Humidity and pressure vertical velocity on the CDR-AOD relationships shows that although the magnitude of the CDR-AOD correlations change with meteorological conditions, the sign of correlations remain unchanged with meteorological conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Biomass burning aerosol radiative effects in the Southeast Atlantic depend strongly on meteorological forcing method

Biomass burning aerosols (BBAs) from African fires may strongly impact Earth’s radiation budget in the southeast Atlantic (SEA), but the sign and magnitude of the overall radiative effect (RE) remain uncertain. Aerosol–climate models are needed to separately quantify direct, indirect, and semi-direct REs. Here, we evaluate improved simulations with the UK Met Office's Unified Model and explore REs resulting from various methods used to match observed meteorology (nudging or running forecasts reinitialized at different frequencies). REs are calculated as differences in radiative fluxes between simulations with and without smoke emissions and with and without aerosol absorption. All model setups agree on net warming for the SEA dominated by the direct effect. Simulated smoke, clouds, and the direct effect agree better with observations than previous studies using the same model, though biases in aerosol extinction and liquid water path remain. Changes in cloud droplet number concentration due to BBA self-lofting influence how cleanly we can separate cloud effects into semi-direct and indirect effects. Total RE, which remains unaffected, ranges from +3.0 to +7.9 W m −2 . The 4.9 W m −2 spread arises mainly from simulated semi-direct effects. Forecasts three days long or less probably do not allow time for plausible differences in boundary layer properties due to semi-direct effects to accumulate. Free running simulations with and without smoke accumulate differences in meteorology that are likely spurious “butterfly effects”. We recommend future research quantifying BBA REs over weeks to months to use meteorological forcing techniques that allow aerosol absorption to affect the boundary layer.

Giuffrida, Eric [Carnegie Mellon University, Pitts↗
DOE OSTI2020

Urbanization-induced land and aerosol impacts on sea-breeze circulation and convective precipitation

Abstract. Changes in land cover and aerosols resulting from urbanization may impact convective clouds and precipitation. Here we investigate how Houston urbanization can modify sea-breeze-induced convective cloud and precipitation through the urban land effect and anthropogenic aerosol effect. The simulations are carried out with the Chemistry version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF-Chem), which is coupled with spectral-bin microphysics (SBM) and the multilayer urban model with a building energy model (BEM-BEP). We find that Houston urbanization (the joint effect of both urban land and anthropogenic aerosols) notably enhances storm intensity (by ∼ 75 % in maximum vertical velocity) and precipitation intensity (up to 45 %), with the anthropogenic aerosol effect more significant than the urban land effect. Urban land effect modifies convective evolution: speed up the transition from the warm cloud to mixed-phase cloud, thus initiating surface rain earlier but slowing down the convective cell dissipation, all of which result from urban heating-induced stronger sea-breeze circulation. The anthropogenic aerosol effect becomes evident after the cloud evolves into the mixed-phase cloud, accelerating the development of storm from the mixed-phase cloud to deep cloud by ∼ 40 min. Through aerosol–cloud interaction (ACI), aerosols boost convective intensity and precipitation mainly by activating numerous ultrafine particles at the mixed-phase and deep cloud stages. This work shows the importance of considering both the urban land and anthropogenic aerosol effects for understanding urbanization effects on convective clouds and precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗