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On Tuesday, 14 February 2023, COSPAR Commission A hosted a session in Vienna, Austria and virtually, on "Space-Observation Contributions Supporting Climate Action," as part of the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA) Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (UN COPUOS) Symposium on the Agenda for Sustainable Development.
• The challenge for us at COSPAR in putting this program together was that we are primarily a scientifically oriented organization. “Climate Action,” as it is often expressed publicly, tends to be the domain of “activists.” As scientists, on the other hand, to retain our credibility – and for the contributions we make to continue carrying the weight of scientific truth – it is critical that we remain even-handed in our analysis and our reporting of results. • COSPAR is the Committee on Space Research, and fortunately, much of what we observe from space bears objectively on the attributes of the Earth System and how it is evolving. We can measure from space changes in the cryosphere, in the oceans, the land surface and the atmosphere, frequently, on a global scale, to a degree that is generally not possible any other way. And we have been making such observations, in increasing detail, scope, and precision, for about 60 years. • These data help us characterize the current state and identify patterns of change in the Earth System that allow us to infer processes and to improve climate models. With modeling we can test and refine our inferences, and make some predictions. The results can then inform policy and decision-makers, the public in general, as well as those taking direct action. • So, for today’s session we have invited 7 15-minute presentations spanning a broad range of climate-related topics, covering observations from space that can inform climate-related decision-making – from sea-ice extent and sea-level rise, to land surface properties and land-based water resources, to interactions between land or water surfaces and the atmosphere, to severe events in the atmosphere itself. • We begin with an overview of the observations contributed by one of the premier space agencies, given by NASA Chief Scientist and Senior Climate Advisor Dr. Kate Calvin, which will be followed by talks on what we are learning about specific attributes of the Earth System from space-based measurements that can inform climate-related policy and action.
The key observational tools for detecting large scale changes of various parameters in the polar regions have been satellite sensors. The sensors include passive and active satellite systems in the visible, infrared and microwave frequencies. The monitoring started with Tiros and Nimbus research satellites series in the 1970s but during the period, not much data was stored digitally because of limitations and cost of the needed storage systems. Continuous global data came about starting with the launch of ocean color, passive microwave, and thermal infrared sensors on board Nimbus-7 and Synthetic Aperture Radar, Radar Altimeter and Scatterometer on board SeaSat satellite both launched in 1978. The Nimbus-7 lasted longer than expected and provided about 9 years of useful data while SeaSat quit working after 3 months but provided very useful data that became the baseline for follow-up systems with similar capabilities. Over the years, many new sensors were launched, some from Japan Aeronautics and Space Agency (JAXA), some from the European Space Agency (ESA) and more recently, from RuSSia, China, Korea, Canada and India. For polar studies, among the most useful sensors has been the passive microwave sensor which provides day/night and almost all weather observation of the surface. The sensor provide sea surface temperature, precipitation, wind, water vapor and sea ice concentration data that have been very useful in monitoring the climate of the region. More than 30 years of such data are now available, starting with the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) on board the Nimbus-7, the Special Scanning Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) on board a Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer on board the EOS/ Aqua satellite. The techniques that have been developed to derive geophysical parameters from data provided by these and other sensors and associated instrumental and algorithm errors and validation techniques will be discussed. An important issue is the organization and storage of hundreds of terabytes of data collected by even just a few of these satellite sensors. Advances in mass storage and computer technology have made it possible to overcome many of the collection and archival problems and the availability of comprehensive satellite data sets put together by NASA's Earth Observing System project will be discussed.
As does Earth, Mars presents pronounced global atmospheric circulation patterns. Solar differential heating drives mean meridional overturning (Hadley) circulations which are deep and intense, are hemispherically asymmetric, and where a cross-equatorial single cell dominates. Within middle and high latitudes, thermally indirect eddy-driven (Ferrel) circulation cells have been indicated. Differently, however, large-amplitude orography on planetary and continental scales on Mars can force very non-Earth-like hemispheric circulation patterns. Recent observations from the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter, "Mars Color Imager" (MARCI) instrument are utilized that emphasize water ice clouds in ultra-violet (UV) wavelengths, and these measurements have been binned into "daily global maps" (DGMs) of water-ice cloud optical depth. The presence of large-scale, extratropical quasi-stationary atmospheric wave disturbances in middle and late winter of the northern hemisphere have been found to be present in such DGMs. In combination with such observations, a full-physics Mars global climate model (NASA ARC marsgcm 2.1) is applied to place the observations into context. During late northern winter, it is found that strong, forced Rossby modes (i.e., planetary waves) exist, and with direct correlation to columnintegrated cloud opacity undulating spatial patterns. At this season, zonal wavenumber s = 2 dominates (in contrast to wavenumber s = 1), consistent with MGS/TES analyses at this particular season (Banfield et al., 2003). Large-scale, planetary waves dictate the "coherence" of the northern polar vortex. Fundamentally, such forced planetary waves influence the polar vortex's impermeability (wave-induced) to tracer transport (e.g., dust and water-ice aerosol) and temporal mean water vapor spatial variations. The large-scale dynamical features of such planetary waves will be highlighted and discussed.
Alaska is experiencing climate change at an unprecedented rate, with temperatures increasing twice as fast as the national average. The resulting changes to the landscape and ecosystems are significant, including shorter winters, declining snow depth, thawing permafrost, and rapidly receding glaciers. These changes are not only exacerbating the negative impacts of oil exploration but also affecting the food security of indigenous communities that rely on hunting as a subsistence food source. With the US Fish and Wildlife Service managing a potential tundra travel season for the first time in its history, adequate data on historic snow variables is essential to protect the unique habitat of the area. This project used NASA satellite and assimilation system data to inform and improve the current understanding of snow patterns in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and the National Petroleum Reserve – Alaska. The DEVELOP team used MODIS Normalized Difference Snow Index data to determine snow season duration, snow change frequency, and the first and last days of snow. The team also utilized the 2.1 Global Land Data Assimilation System and Daymet V4 products to study climatological trends in snow depth and snow water equivalent, respectively, across the study areas. The results of this study give users the capacity to visualize maps of multiple snow variables to monitor changes in snow conditions and proactively prepare for the ecological, cultural, and landscape impacts that changes in snow variability will cause in the future.
The ocean provides the most significant memory for the climate system. Hence, a critical element in climate forecasting with coupled models is the initialization of the ocean with states from an ocean data assimilation system. Remotely-sensed ocean surface fields (e.g., sea surface topography, SST, winds) are now available for extensive periods and have been used to constrain ocean models to provide a record of climate variations. Since the ocean is virtually opaque to electromagnetic radiation, the assimilation of these satellite data is essential to extracting the maximum information content. More recently, the Argo drifters have provided unprecedented sampling of the subsurface temperature and salinity. Although the duration of this observation set has been too short to provide solid statistical evidence of its impact, there are indications that Argo improves the forecast skill of coupled systems. This presentation will address the impact these different observations have had on seasonal climate predictions with the GMAO's coupled model.
The total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) and stratospheric aerosol and gas experiment (SAGE) measurements show a significant reduction in the stratospheric ozone over the middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres between the years 1979 and 1991 (WMO, 1992). This change in ozone will effect both the solar and longwave radiation with climate implications. However, recent studies (Ramaswamy et al., 1992; WMO, 1992) indicate that the net effect depends not only on latitudes and seasons, but also on the response of the lower stratospheric temperature. In this study we use a general circulation model (GCM) to calculate the climatic effect due to stratospheric ozone depletion and compare the effect with that due to observed increases of trace gases CO2, CH4, N2O, and CFC's for the period 1980-1990. In the simulations, we use the observed changes in ozone derived from the TOMS data. The GCM used is a version of the NCAR community climate model referenced in Wang et al. (1991). For the present study we run the model in perpetual January and perpetual July modes in which the incoming solar radiation and climatological sea surface temperatures are held constant.
An approximate method for estimating the global distributions of the entropy fluxes flowing through the upper boundary of the climate system is introduced, and an estimate of the entropy exchange between the earth and space and the entropy production of the planet is provided. Entropy fluxes calculated from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment measurements show how the long-wave entropy flux densities dominate the total entropy fluxes at all latitudes compared with the entropy flux densities associated with reflected sunlight, although the short-wave flux densities are important in the context of clear sky-cloudy sky net entropy flux differences. It is suggested that the entropy production of the planet is both constant for the 36 months of data considered and very near its maximum possible value. The mean value of this production is 0.68 x 10 exp 15 W/K, and the amplitude of the annual cycle is approximately 1 to 2 percent of this value.
Limits to the accuracy of the Earth Radiation Budget (ERB) data being obtained by the Nimbus-7 satellite are discussed with emphasis on the implications for the measured variabilities in the global climate. Error analyses are performed for both wide and narrow field of view instruments and the success of in-flight calibration efforts is noted. Alterations in the ERB due to the eruptions of El Chichon in 1982 and the 1982-1983 ENSO event are summarized, particularly the teleconnections which were observed during ENSO.
Satellite measurements of the effect of clouds on the top of atmosphere radiative energy budget are used to validate model simulations from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model (NCAR CCM). The ability of the NCAR CCM to reproduce the monthly mean global distribution and temporal variability on both daily and seasonal time scales is assessed. The comparison reveals several deficiencies in the CCM cloud representation. Most notable are the difficulties in properly simulating the effect of clouds on the planetary albedo. This problem arises from discrepancies in the model's portrayal of low-level cloudiness and leads to significant errors in the absorbed solar radiation simulated by the model. The CCM performs much better in simulating the effect of clouds on the longwave radiation emitted to space, indicating its relative success in capturing the vertical distribution of cloudiness. The daily variability of the radiative effects of clouds in both the shortwave and longwave spectral regions is systematically overestimated. Analysis of the seasonal variations illustrates a distinct lack of coupling in the seasonal changes in the radiative effects of cloudiness between the tropics and mid-latitudes and between the Northern and Southern Hemisphere. Much of this problem also arises from difficulties in simulating low-level cloudiness, placing further emphasis on the need for better model parameterizations of boundary layer clouds.
The heating of air by a lightning discharge, followed by rapid cooling, leads to the production of lightning nitrogen oxides (“LNO x ” for brevity, where NO x = NO + NO 2 ). The LNO x are important trace gases because they control the concentration of the greenhouse gas ozone (O 3 ) and the highly reactive hydroxyl radicals (OH). In fact, LNO x are the most important source of NO x in the upper troposphere at tropical and subtropical latitudes, and climate is most sensitive to O 3 in the upper troposphere. Since lightning indirectly influences the Earth's climate, it is a key variable to monitor in National Climate Assessment (NCA) studies. In this work, GOES-16 Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) flash counts and flash optical properties (i.e., optical energy, optical area, …) that are linked to LNO x production are examined in detail for the continental United States analysis region, and are compared with ground-based National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) observations.
Recently published findings using satellite and ground-based observations indicate a large winter and summertime decrease in the column abundance of ozone at high and middle latitudes during the last decade. Using a simple ozone depletion profile reflecting the observed decrease in ozone column abundance, Ramaswamy et al. (1992) showed that the negative radiative forcing that results from the ozone decrease between 1979 and 1990 approximately balanced the greenhouse climate forcing due to the chlorofluorocarbons emitted during the same period. Here, we extend the forcing analyses by calculating the equilibrium surface temperature response explicitly, using an updated version of the Atmospheric and Environmental Research two-dimensional radiative-dynamical seasonal model. The calculated steady state responses suggest that the surface cooling due to the ozone depletion in the lower stratosphere offsets about 30% of the surface warming due to greenhouse gases emitted during the same decade. The temperature offset is roughly a factor of 2 larger than the corresponding offset obtained from forcing intercomparisons. This result appears to be related to the climate feedback mechanisms operating in the model troposphere, most notably that associated with atmospheric meridional heat transport. Thus a comprehensive assessment of ozone change effects on the predicted greenhouse warming cannot be accomplished based on forcing evaluations alone. Our results also show that calculations adopting a seasonally and latitudinally dependent ozone depletion profile produce a negative forcing about 50% smaller than that calculated for the depletion profile used by Ramaswamy et al. (1992).
One of the challenges facing atmospheric scientists is to interpret trends in multi-decadal data records. Although data records from satellite instruments are not as long as some ground-based records, global coverage and resolved vertical profiles provide unique information for identifying signatures of climate change. For example, the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite provided profiles of O3, H2O, HC1, HF, CH4 from October 1991 until November 2005. There are also multi-annual ground based measurements of the column HCl. Middle latitude ground-based measurements show a seasonal cycle, and the HALOE profiles show that this is driven by the seasonal change in the composition and mass of the region between the tropopause and 380K surface (the lowermost stratosphere). Understanding the processes that produce the seasonal cycle makes it possible to interpret a future change in the seasonal cycle as a marker of a change in the stratospheric residual circulation. Satellite observations have also provided key information for improving the physical basis of models used to predict future composition and climate circulation. An example is the "tape recorder" signature in tropical stratospheric water vapor, i.e., the slow ascent of high and low water vapor anomalies roughly corresponding to the tropopause temperature at the time air entered the stratosphere. This signature has become a key diagnostic of performance for climate models.
Knowledge of the chemical and dynamical processes that control the stratospheric ozone layer has grown rapidly since the 1970s, when ideas that depletion of the ozone layer due to human activity were put forth. The concept of ozone depletion due to anthropogenic chlorine increase is simple; quantification of the effect is much more difficult. The future of stratospheric ozone is complicated because ozone is expected to increase for two reasons: the slow decrease in anthropogenic chlorine due to the Montreal Protocol and its amendments and stratospheric cooling caused by increases in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Prediction of future ozone levels requires three-dimensional models that represent physical, photochemical and radiative processes, i.e., chemistry climate models (CCMs). While laboratory kinetic and photochemical data are necessary inputs for a CCM, atmospheric measurements are needed both to reveal physical and chemical processes and for comparison with simulations to test the conceptual model that CCMs represent. Global measurements are available from various satellites including but not limited to the LIMS and TOMS instruments on Nimbus 7 (1979 - 1993), and various instruments on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (1991 - 2005), Envisat (2002 - ongoing), Sci-Sat (2003 - ongoing) and Aura (2004 - ongoing). Every successful satellite instrument requires a physical concept for the measurement, knowledge of physical chemical properties of the molecules to be measured, and stellar engineering to design an instrument that will survive launch and operate for years with no opportunity for repair but providing enough information that trend information can be separated from any instrument change. The on-going challenge is to use observations to decrease uncertainty in prediction. This talk will focus on two applications. The first considers transport diagnostics and implications for prediction of the eventual demise of the Antarctic ozone hole. The second focuses on the upper stratosphere, where ozone is predicted to increase both due to chlorine decrease and due to temperature decrease expected as a result of increased concentrations Of CO2 and other greenhouse gases. Both applications show how diagnostics developed from global observations are being used to explain why the ozone response varies among CCM predictions for stratospheric ozone in the 21st century.
Since 1991 a suite of international satellites have collected large amounts of high-resolution microwave radar images over Arctic and Antarctic sea ice. Together with complementary synthetic aperture radar (SAR) 100 m resolution microwave imaging, these data provide a powerful tool for addressing the characteristics of sea ice which directly influence the polar oceans and climate.
The water ice clouds are primarily controlled by the temperature structure and form at the water condensation level. Clouds in all regions presented show day/night differences. Cloud altitude varies between night and day in the SPH and tropics: (1) NPH water ice opacity is greater at night than day at some seasons (2) The diurnal thermal tide controls the daily variability. (3) Strong day/night changes indicate that the amount of gas in the atmosphere varies significantly. See significant mixtures of dust and ice at the same altitude planet-wide (1) Points to a complex radiative and thermal balance between dust heating (in the visible) and ice heating or cooling in the infrared. Aerosol layering: (1) Early seasons reveal a zonally banded spatial distribution (2) Some localized longitudinal structure of aerosol layers (3) Later seasons show no consistent large scale organization
No abstract available
Mars reveals similar, yet also rather different, atmospheric circulation patterns compared to those on Earth. In both atmospheres, solar differential heating drives global Hadley circulation cells. However during solstice on Mars, its Hadley cells are hemispherically asymmetric: an intense, deep, cross-hemisphere single cell dominates with rising motion in the summer hemisphere and sinking motion in the winter hemisphere. Both planets also exhibit thermally indirect (i.e., eddy-driven) Ferrel circulation cells in middle and high latitudes. In addition, Earth and Mars exhibit distinctive large-scale orography and, in a broadly defined context, continentality. For Mars’ northern midlatitudes, Tharsis in the western hemisphere, and Arabia Terra and Elysium in the eastern hemisphere, are the primary large-scale topographic features. In the southern-midlatitudes, Tharsis and Argyre in the western hemisphere, and Hellas in the eastern hemisphere are the key topographic features which can influence large-scale circulation patterns. Such underlying orographic complexes not only cause significant latitudinal excursions of the seasonal mean westerly circumnavigating polar vortex but also significantly modulate the intensity and preferred geographic regions of traveling baroclinic weather systems.