SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “climate change mitigation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 127 records · Page 7

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2020

Soil organic carbon accumulation rates on Mediterranean abandoned agricultural lands

Secondary succession on abandoned agricultural lands can produce climate change mitigation co-benefits, such as soil carbon sequestration. However, the accumulation of soil organic carbon (SOC) in Mediterranean regions has been difficult to predict and is subject to multiple environmental and land management factors. Gains, losses, and no significant changes have all been reported. Here we compile chronosequence data (n = 113) from published studies and new field sites to assess the response of SOC to agricultural land abandonment in peninsular Spain. In this work we found an overall SOC accumulation rate of +2.3% yr -1 post-abandonment. SOC dynamics are highly variable and context-dependent. Minimal change occurs on abandoned cereal croplands compared to abandoned woody croplands (+4% yr -1 ). Accumulation is most prevalent within a Goldilocks climatic window of ~13–17 °C and ~450–900 mm precipitation, promoting >100% gains after three decades. Our secondary forest field sites accrued 40.8 Mg C ha -1 (+172%) following abandonment and displayed greater SOC and N depth heterogeneity than natural forests demonstrating the long-lasting impact of agriculture. Although changes in regional climate and crop types abandoned will impact future carbon sequestration, abandonment remains a low-cost, long-term natural climate solution best incorporated in tandem with other multipurpose sustainable land management strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Willow Biomass Crops Are a Carbon Negative or Low-Carbon Feedstock Depending on Prior Land Use and Transportation Distances to End Users

Few life cycle assessments (LCAs) on willow biomass production have investigated the effects of key geographically specific parameters. This study uses a spatial LCA model for willow biomass production to determine spatially explicit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy return on investment (EROI), including land use conversion from pasture and cropland or grassland. There were negative GHG emissions on 92% of the land identified as suitable for willow biomass production, indicating this system’s potential for climate change mitigation. For willow planted on cropland or pasture, life cycle GHG emissions ranged from −53.2 to −176.9 kg CO2eq Mg-1. When willow was grown on grassland the projected decrease in soil organic carbon resulted in a slightly positive GHG balance. Changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) associated with land use change, transportation distance, and willow yield had the greatest impacts on GHG emissions. Results from the uncertainty analysis exhibited large variations in GHG emissions between counties arising from differences in these parameters. The average EROI across the entire region was 19.2. Willow biomass can be a carbon negative or low-carbon energy source with a high EROI in regions with similar infrastructure, transportation distances, and growing conditions such as soil characteristics, land cover types, and climate.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Mechanisms and Impacts of Earth System Tipping Elements

Tipping elements are components of the Earth system which may respond nonlinearly to anthropogenic climate change by transitioning toward substantially different long-term states upon passing key thresholds or “tipping points.” In some cases, such changes could produce additional greenhouse gas emissions or radiative forcing that could compound global warming. Improved understanding of tipping elements is important for predicting future climate risks and their impacts. Here we review mechanisms, predictions, impacts, and knowledge gaps associated with 10 notable Earth system components proposed to be tipping elements. We evaluate which tipping elements are approaching critical thresholds and whether shifts may manifest rapidly or over longer timescales. Some tipping elements have a higher risk of crossing tipping points under middle-of-the-road emissions pathways and will possibly affect major ecosystems, climate patterns, and/or carbon cycling within the 21st century. However, literature assessing different emissions scenarios indicates a strong potential to reduce impacts associated with many tipping elements through climate change mitigation. The studies synthesized in our review suggest most tipping elements do not possess the potential for abrupt future change within years, and some proposed tipping elements may not exhibit tipping behavior, rather responding more predictably and directly to the magnitude of forcing. Nevertheless, uncertainties remain associated with many tipping elements, highlighting an acute need for further research and modeling to better constrain risks.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Impact of salinity on morphology, growth, and pigment profiles of Scenedesmus obliquus HTB1 under ambient air and elevated CO 2 (10 %) conditions

Certain microalgal species, such as Scenedesmus obliquus strain HTB1, thrive under high CO 2 concentrations, making them promising for carbon sequestration to mitigate climate change. Isolated from the Baltimore Inner Harbor, HTB1 grows faster with 10 % CO 2 than with ambient air. To investigate its responses to salinity and elevated CO 2 , two experiments were conducted. In the first, HTB1 was cultured at seven different salinities (0, 17.5, 20, 22.5, 25, 27.5, and 30 ppt) (parts per thousand) under ambient air. Higher salinity caused cell shrinkage, color changes from green to pale white, reduced pigments like zeaxanthin, lutein, and chlorophyll b, but increased canthaxanthin. Growth declined significantly above 22.5 ppt. The second experiment compared HTB1's response to salinity (0, 10, 20 ppt) under air and 10 % CO 2 . Cultures under 10 % CO 2 showed minimal color changes, while those under air shifted from green to brown, with salinity having less inhibitory effects on growth under elevated CO 2 . Interestingly, lutein and canthaxanthin levels rose with salinity in 10 % CO 2 . These findings indicate that elevated CO 2 mitigates salt stress in HTB1, reducing its impact on growth and promoting adaptive pigment changes. This study sheds light on how salinity and CO 2 interact to influence HTB1's morphology, growth, and pigment composition, enhancing our understanding of its resilience and potential applications.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modelled land use and land cover change emissions – a spatio-temporal comparison of different approaches

Abstract. Quantifying the net carbon flux from land use and land cover changes (fLULCC) is critical for understanding the global carbon cycle and, hence, to support climate change mitigation. However, large-scale fLULCC is not directly measurable and has to be inferred from models instead, such as semi-empirical bookkeeping models and process-based dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). By definition, fLULCC estimates are not directly comparable between these two different model types. As an important example, DGVM-based fLULCC in the annual global carbon budgets is estimated under transient environmental forcing and includes the so-called loss of additional sink capacity (LASC). The LASC results from the impact of environmental changes on land carbon storage potential of managed land compared to potential vegetation and accumulates over time, which is not captured in bookkeeping models. The fLULCC from transient DGVM simulations, thus, strongly depends on the timing of land use and land cover changes mainly because LASC accumulation is cut off at the end of the simulated period. To estimate the LASC, the fLULCC from pre-industrial DGVM simulations, which is independent of changing environmental conditions, can be used. Additionally, DGVMs using constant present-day environmental forcing enable an approximation of bookkeeping estimates. Here, we analyse these three DGVM-derived fLULCC estimations (under transient, pre-industrial, and present-day forcing) for 12 models within 18 regions and quantify their differences as well as climate- and CO2-induced components and compare them to bookkeeping estimates. Averaged across the models, we find a global fLULCC (under transient conditions) of 2.0±0.6 PgC yr−1 for 2009–2018, of which ∼40 % are attributable to the LASC (0.8±0.3 PgC yr−1). From 1850 onward, the fLULCC accumulated to 189±56 PgC with 40±15 PgC from the LASC. Around 1960, the accumulating nature of the LASC causes global transient fLULCC estimates to exceed estimates under present-day conditions, despite generally increased carbon stocks in the latter. Regional hotspots of high cumulative and annual LASC values are found in the USA, China, Brazil, equatorial Africa, and Southeast Asia, mainly due to deforestation for cropland. Distinct negative LASC estimates in Europe (early reforestation) and from 2000 onward in the Ukraine (recultivation of post-Soviet abandoned agricultural land), indicate that fLULCC estimates in these regions are lower in transient DGVM compared to bookkeeping approaches. Our study unravels the strong dependence of fLULCC estimates on the time a certain land use and land cover change event happened to occur and on the chosen time period for the forcing of environmental conditions in the underlying simulations. We argue for an approach that provides an accounting of the fLULCC that is more robust against these choices, for example by estimating a mean DGVM ensemble fLULCC and LASC for a defined reference period and homogeneous environmental changes (CO2 only).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Water availability modulates maximum canopy heights of low-elevation Amazonian second-growth forests

Tropical second-growth forests of the Amazon sequester large amounts of carbon and are important carbon sinks, contributing substantially to climate change mitigation, biodiversity conservation, and providing crucial ecosystem services. Deforestation due to selective logging and shifting cultivation is expanding second-growth forest areas in tropical forest regions, which if well managed, regenerate rapidly over time. Maximum forest canopy height is an important metric of biomass and carbon accumulation in second-growth forests and is strongly influenced by water availability. The water limitation hypothesis explains the positive influence of water availability on maximum tree heights and has been examined and demonstrated at a small-scale using field data, and at a global scale, with limited accuracy, using remote sensing data in tropical ecosystems. However, this hypothesis concerning maximum canopy height has not been much studied at regional and national scales for tropical second-growth forests. In this study, we leveraged NASA GEDI spaceborne lidar data across the Brazilian Amazon and derived second-growth forest relative height metrics for delineating the influence of water availability, second-growth forest age, and topographic elevation on maximum canopy height. Water availability was found to significantly influence the maximum canopy height of second-growth forest trees, of age range from 30 to 35 years, at elevations less than 500 m and maximum precipitation thresholds of 1500 mm. Our results indicate that changing precipitation patterns or increased drought conditions under different climate change regimes could impact forest structure, plant communities, ecosystem functioning, and carbon sequestration capabilities of tropical second-growth forests in the Amazon.

Carbon sequestration↗

DOE OSTI2025

Combining organic amendments with enhanced rock weathering shifts soil carbon storage in croplands

Enhanced rock weathering (ERW) involves applying crushed silicate minerals to cropland soils to remove carbon dioxide and stabilize the global climate. If practiced widely, ERW has the potential to mitigate climate change and improve soil health and crop productivity. However, most ERW studies emphasize inorganic carbon (IC) chemistry, using model-based estimates and short-term mesocosms. Limited field data exist on how ERW interacts with organic amendments to affect organic carbon (C) cycling in soils. In a three-year field study in conventionally managed, irrigated maize fields, we monitored how key soil variables responded to crushed rock-alone, and in combination with compost and/or biochar. We measured weathering indicators (pH, major cations, and IC contents) and organic fractions, including particulate organic matter (POM), mineral-associated organic matter (MAOM), microbial biomass C, and water-extractable organic C. Rock-alone treatments increased weathering proxies (pH and IC) and showed an increasing trend in POM and MAOM, relative to control. In contrast, combining crushed rock with organic amendments resulted in lower soil organic C and nitrogen (N) concentrations (in both POM and MAOM) compared to organic amendments alone, though IC increased in the rock+compost treatment. Combining rock with both compost and biochar (compost/biochar) significantly lowered MAOM-N compared to compost/biochar alone. Overall, co-applying rock with organic inputs may promote weathering and C accrual but slow the accrual rate of organic C and N relative to organic amendments alone. Quantifying these trade-offs over multiple years and scales is critical to integrating ERW with existing soil health practices and climate mitigation strategies.

Biological and medical sciences↗

DOE OSTI2020

Persistence of soil organic carbon caused by functional complexity

Soil organic carbon management has the potential to aid climate change mitigation through drawdown of atmospheric carbon dioxide. To be effective, such management must account for processes influencing carbon storage and re-emission at different space and time scales. Achieving this requires a conceptual advance in our understanding to link carbon dynamics from the scales at which processes occur to the scales at which decisions are made. Here, we propose that soil carbon persistence can be understood through the lens of decomposers as a result of functional complexity derived from the interplay between spatial and temporal variation of molecular diversity and composition. For example, co-location alone can determine whether a molecule is decomposed, with rapid changes in moisture leading to transport of organic matter and constraining the fitness of the microbial community, while greater molecular diversity may increase the metabolic demand of, and thus potentially limit, decomposition. This conceptual shift accounts for emergent behaviour of the microbial community and would enable soil carbon changes to be predicted without invoking recalcitrant carbon forms that have not been observed experimentally. Finally, functional complexity as a driver of soil carbon persistence suggests soil management should be based on constant care rather than one-time action to lock away carbon in soils.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating Impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law on the U.S. Power System

The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021, commonly referred to as the 'Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL),' collectively represent the largest commitment of the U.S. Federal Government to invest in the modernization and decarbonization of the U.S. energy system. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that total support for the broad range of climate and clean energy programs, tax credits, and other incentives authorized through the two laws will exceed $430 billion from 2022 through 2031 (CRS 2022; CBO 2021, 2022). While the climate and clean energy provisions are numerous and have the potential to impact all aspects of the U.S. energy system from fuel and electricity production to final consumption in industry, transportation, and buildings, the provisions relevant to the electricity sector - in particular the suite of tax credits for clean generation, storage, and carbon dioxide ( CO 2 ) capture and storage - are expected to be some of the most consequential in terms of emissions reduction and clean energy deployment (Larsen et al. 2022; Jenkins, Mayfield, et al. 2022; Mahajan et al. 2022; Zhao et al. 2022). In this report, we detail the methods and results of a study estimating the potential impacts of key provisions of IRA and BIL on the contiguous U.S. power sector from present day through 2030. The analysis employs an advanced power system planning model, the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS), to evaluate how major provisions from both laws impact investment in and operation of utility-scale generation, storage, and transmission, and, in turn, how those changes impact power system costs, emissions, and climate and health damages. While not exhaustive in capturing every provision, the analysis estimates the possible scale of power-sector impacts that could result from the modeled provisions in IRA and BIL. The study is structured around two scenarios to evaluate the potential impacts of both laws on the power sector: 1) No New Policy: A counter-factual scenario that reflects all Federal and state policies enacted as of September 2022, with exception to IRA and BIL, and assumes load growth consistent with the Energy Information Administration's Annual Energy Outlook 2022 (AEO22) Reference case (EIA 2022a); 2) IRA-BIL: A scenario reflecting all Federal and state policies enacted as of September 2022, including key IRA and BIL provisions, most notably the investment and production tax credits for zero-carbon emitting electricity generation and storage (ITC and PTC), the tax credit for CO 2 capture and storage (45Q), and the tax credit for existing nuclear plants (described further in Section 2.3). To account for the impacts of IRA and BIL on electrification, assumes increased load growth consistent with a scaled version of the Medium Electrification scenario from the Electrification Futures Study (Mai et al. 2018). These scenarios are simulated across seven sets of assumptions with varying projected future electricity market conditions, including technology costs and performance, natural gas prices, and the degree of availability, feasibility, and cost of development of renewable resources, electricity transmission, and CO 2 pipeline, injection, and storage infrastructure. In addition, we simulate two sensitivities on the 'policy' treatment in which we vary key assumptions pertaining to the realized value of the clean electricity ITC and PTC: 1) the cost of monetization of tax credits, and 2) the level of bonus crediting realized by project developers. We demonstrate that IRA and BIL have the collective potential to drive substantial growth in clean electricity by 2030, while reducing costs for consumers, mitigating climate change, and decreasing the human health impacts of power sector emissions. However, we also demonstrate that if expected cost improvements of clean technologies are not realized and/or constraints on deployment driven by factors such as supply-chain challenges, regulatory hurdles, and the social acceptability of energy infrastructure development limit the rate of clean energy and associated infrastructure deployment (such as transmission), then the share of clean generation achieved and the associated emissions benefits realized may be substantively reduced.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

The pH and Potential Dependence of Pb–Catalyzed Electrochemical CO 2 Reduction to Methyl Formate in a Dual Methanol/Water Electrolyte

The conversion of waste CO 2 to value-added chemicals through electrochemical reduction is a promising technology for mitigating climate change while simultaneously providing economic opportunities. The use of non-aqueous solvents like methanol allows for higher CO 2 availability and novel products. In this work, the electrochemistry of CO 2 reduction in acidic methanol catholyte at a Pb working electrode was investigated while using a separate aqueous anolyte to promote a sustainable water oxidation half-reaction. The selectivity among methyl formate (a product unique to reduction of CO 2 in methanol), formic acid, and formate was critically dependent on the catholyte pH, with higher pH conditions leading to formate and low pH favoring methyl formate. Furthermore, the potential dependence of the product distribution in acidic catholyte was also investigated, with a faradaic efficiency for methyl formate as high as 75% measured at -2.0 V vs Ag/AgCl.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Polymers in direct air capture: a mini review

The urgent need to mitigate climate change has intensified interest in direct air capture (DAC) technology, which targets extracting carbon dioxide (CO2) directly from the atmosphere. Among the various sorbents used in DAC, polymers have emerged as a promising solution, either as active sorbents or as structural supports for active DAC materials, due to their customizable properties, scalability and low cost. This mini-review investigates the latest trends in polymer-based materials for DAC and identifies critical research gaps, such as the need for thorough lifecycle assessments and in-depth studies on the degradation of polymeric materials. It also outlines future directions, emphasizing the importance of developing cost-effective, scalable and durable polymers that can perform efficiently across diverse climatic conditions, including the unique challenges presented by cold weather regions abundant in renewable energy. This mini-review aims to inform ongoing efforts in the design and utilization of polymeric sorbents, providing insights that could guide the development of economically viable and environmentally sustainable DAC technologies.

climate change↗

DOE OSTI2024

Anthromes and forest carbon responses to global change

Human effects on ecosystems date back thousands of years, and anthropogenic biomes—anthromes—broadly incorporate the effects of human population density and land use on ecosystems. Forests are integral to the global carbon cycle, containing large biomass carbon stocks, yet their responses to land use and climate change are uncertain but critical to informing climate change mitigation strategies, ecosystem management, and Earth system modeling. Using an anthromes perspective and the site locations from the Global Forest Carbon (ForC) Database, we compare intensively used, cultured, and wildland forest lands in tropical and extratropical regions. We summarize recent past (1900-present) patterns of land use intensification, and we use a feedback analysis of Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 to estimate the sensitivity of forest carbon stocks to CO 2 and temperature change for different anthromes among regions. Modeled global forest carbon stock responses are positive for CO 2 increase but neutral to negative for temperature increase. Across anthromes (intensively used, cultured, and wildland forest areas), modeled forest carbon stock responses of temperate and boreal forests are less variable than those of tropical forests. Tropical wildland forest areas appear especially sensitive to CO 2 and temperature change, with the negative temperature response highlighting the potential vulnerability of the globally significant carbon stock in tropical forests. The net effect of anthropogenic activities—including land-use intensification and environmental change and their interactions with natural forest dynamics—will shape future forest carbon stock changes. These interactive effects will likely be strongest in tropical wildlands.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Persistence and potential of soil organic carbon in nature‐based climate solutions: A review of managed disturbances

Societal Impact Statement Implementing nature-based climate solutions is important for mitigating climate change, which is a global issue, but requires local adjustments in management practices. Using the association between soil carbon and minerals as a proxy for carbon persistence, we evaluated the effect of different management regimes on soil carbon sequestration and loss. We identified areas where management practices that increase carbon inputs should be prioritized and areas where management should focus on avoiding severe disturbances. Using this storage-potential-and-persistence framework to identify how to increase or maintain soil organic carbon storage locally will increase the effectiveness of nature-based climate solutions globally. Summary Increasing soil organic carbon storage could reduce the pace of climate change, but the longevity of this nature-based climate solution depends on the persistence of carbon in soils, not just the input rates into soils. We apply a framework for considering how soil carbon persistence—namely, via the association with minerals—sheds light on soil carbon sequestration. We review how management of disturbances, such as prescribed burning, forestry, and grazing, can change soil carbon storage, persistence, and potential. Past work demonstrated that management of disturbances can sequester soil carbon, but it remains unclear how the potential stabilization of that accrual and vulnerability to loss varies across disturbance types and geographies. We found that there is substantial geographical heterogeneity in the overlap among estimates of carbon accrual, disturbance occurrence, and potential stabilization: Fire-prone grasslands and intensively grazed rangelands occur in areas estimated to have high potential to store mineral-associated organic carbon, and studies also find that adjusted fire and grazing can promote mineral-associated organic carbon. Plantation forestry and burned area span large regions where particulate organic matter is the dominant form, and studies find that particulate organic carbon is disproportionately lost following intense wildfires and forest harvests. Thus, areas with high mineral-associated organic carbon deficits should be prioritized for practices that increase carbon inputs; whereas areas with high proportions of particulate organic carbon should be prioritized for practices that help to avoid severe disturbances. Taken together, the distribution of and changes in persistence mechanisms shed light on the durability of nature-based climate solutions.

fire↗

DOE OSTI2020

Food security under high bioenergy demand toward long-term climate goals

Bioenergy is expected to play an important role in the achievement of stringent climate-change mitigation targets requiring the application of negative emissions technology. Using a multi-model framework, we assess the effects of high bioenergy demand on global food production, food security, and competition for agricultural land. Various scenarios simulate global bioenergy demands of 100, 200, 300, and 400 exajoules (EJ) by 2100, with and without a carbon price. Six global energy-economy-agriculture models contribute to this study, with different methodologies and technologies used for bioenergy supply and greenhouse-gas mitigation options for agriculture. We find that the large-scale use of bioenergy, if not implemented properly, would raise food prices and increase the number of people at risk of hunger in many areas of the world. For example, an increase in global bioenergy demand from 200 to 300 EJ causes a -11% to +40% change in food crop prices and decreases food consumption from -45 to -2 kcal person -1 day -1 , leading to an additional 0 to 25 million people at risk of hunger compared with the case of no bioenergy demand (90th percentile range across models). This risk does not rule out the intensive use of bioenergy but shows the importance of its careful implementation, potentially including regulations that protect cropland for food production or for the use of bioenergy feedstock on land that is not competitive with food production.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Two-Phase Flow Mechanisms Controlling CO2 Intrusion into Shaly Caprock

Abstract Geologic carbon storage in deep saline aquifers has emerged as a promising technique to mitigate climate change. CO 2 is buoyant at the storage conditions and tends to float over the resident brine jeopardizing long-term containment goals. Therefore, the caprock sealing capacity is of great importance and requires detailed assessment. We perform supercritical CO 2 injection experiments on shaly caprock samples (intact caprock and fault zone) under representative subsurface conditions. We numerically simulate the experiments, satisfactorily reproducing the observed evolution trends. Simulation results highlight the dynamics of CO 2 flow through the specimens with implications to CO 2 leakage risk assessment in field practices. The large injection-induced overpressure drives CO 2 in free phase into the caprock specimens. However, the relative permeability increase following the drainage path is insufficient to provoke an effective advancement of the free-phase CO 2 . As a result, the bulk CO 2 front becomes almost immobile. This implies that the caprock sealing capacity is unlikely to be compromised by a rapid capillary breakthrough and the injected CO 2 does not penetrate deep into the caprock. In the long term, the intrinsically slow molecular diffusion appears to dominate the migration of CO 2 dissolved into brine. Nonetheless, the inherently tortuous nature of shaly caprock further holds back the diffusive flow, favoring safe underground storage of CO 2 over geological time scales.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Electrification of industrial boilers in the USA: potentials, challenges, and policy implications

Decarbonization of the industrial heat demand through electrification could contribute significantly to climate change mitigation efforts. In the US industry, thermal processes accounted for 75% of the total final energy demand in 2018, of which 17% is consumed by conventional industrial boilers (excluding cogeneration) for steam generation. Electric boilers have a small share in the US industrial steam generation due to several techno-economic reasons. Here, this study employs a bottom-up approach to investigate the sector-level and state-level techno-enviro-economic potentials of deploying electric boilers in the US industry in different timeframes. The results show that the technical potential energy and CO 2 savings by electrifying industrial boilers are 595 PJ and 200 MtCO 2 per year in 2050, respectively; however, these incur additional costs in each sector. Although there may be individual cost-effective opportunities for electrifying boilers in specific industrial sites, the overall costs are high in all industrial sectors and states due to the large disparity between electricity and combustion fuel prices. To overcome the highlighted techno-economic barriers, a comprehensive action plan for different stakeholders is also formulated. This study provides novel insights that should inform policymakers’ and executives’ decisions about the electrification of the current and future US industrial boiler systems.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Techno-economic evaluation of industrial heat pump applications in US pulp and paper, textile, and automotive industries

Industrial process heat decarbonization through electrification could contribute significantly to climate change mitigation efforts. In the US industry, thermal processes accounted for more than two-thirds of the total final energy demand in 2021. Cross-cutting electrification technologies like industrial heat pumps are suitable for the process heat supply to several industrial unit operations in a sustainable way while also improving overall energy efficiency. This study employs a bottom-up approach to investigate the techno-enviro-economic potentials of deploying high-temperature and steam-generating heat pumps in US textile, pulp and paper, and automotive sectors in different timeframes. The results show that the annual technical potential energy and CO 2 savings by electrifying heat supply are 310 PJ (or 36% of the projected energy demand) and 28 MtCO 2 (or 71% of the projected CO 2 emissions) in 2050 respectively, however, these incur additional costs in each sector (ranging between 5 and 18 $\$$/GJ). The required heating capacity of industrial heat pumps is estimated at 15 GW, which translates roughly into a market of over 6000 heat pump units and an investment volume of $\$$7 billion in the studied processes. Although there may be individual cost-effective opportunities for electrifying heat supply in specific industrial sites, the overall costs are estimated to be high in the three industrial sectors due to the large disparity between electricity and natural gas prices and low heat source temperatures. To overcome the identified techno-economic barriers, comprehensive action plans for different stakeholders are also given. This study provides novel insights that should inform policymakers’ and executives’ decisions about the electrification of the current and future US industrial heat supply in relevant industrial sectors.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Optimal Gas-Electric Energy System Decarbonization Planning

As energy utilities implement climate change mitigation policies, system planners require strategies for achieving affordable emissions reductions. Coordinated planning of electric power and natural gas systems will allow synergistic investments to address cross-sector operational constraints, competing uses for net-zero emissions fuels, and shifts in energy demands across energy carriers. In this study, we develop a novel optimization program that finds the cost-minimizing mix of infrastructure expansion or reduction across gas and electric systems to satisfy sector-specific emissions constraints. Alongside energy supply resources, our framework allows for central-planning of end-use equipment stocks to allow switching between gas and electric appliances upon failure or premature replacement. The proposed model is used to simulate case study scenarios for a benchmark 24-pipe gas network coupled to a 24-node power system test network. We find that electrification of greater than 80% of core gas demands is a component of the least-cost solution for modeled energy systems. Despite this substitution, the gas system is maintained to service difficult-to-electrify customers and to deliver net-zero emissions gas to electricity generators in times of peak electricity demand. Restricting electrification of gas appliances increases reliance on power- to-gas technologies and increases annual costs by 15% in 2040. Neglecting constraints on pipeline blending of hydrogen can produce a misleading result that relies on hydrogen blend fractions of greater than 50%. In all cases, we find the average costs of delivered gas increase nearly 5-fold across the decarbonization transition, highlighting the importance of future work investigating cost-allocation strategies for ensuring an equitable energy transition.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗