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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2016

Disturbance and the Carbon Balance of US Forests: A Quantitative Review of Impacts from Harvests, Fires, Insects, and Droughts

Disturbances are a major determinant of forest carbon stocks and uptake. They generally reduce land carbon stocks but also initiate a regrowth legacy that contributes substantially to the contemporary rate of carbon stock increase in US forestlands. As managers and policy makers increasingly look to forests for climate protection and mitigation, and because of increasing concern about changes in disturbance intensity and frequency, there is a need for synthesis and integration of current understanding about the role of disturbances and other processes in governing forest carbon cycle dynamics, and the likely future of this and other sinks for atmospheric carbon. This paper aims to address that need by providing a quantitative review of the distribution, extent and carbon impacts of the major disturbances active in the US. We also review recent trends in disturbances, climate, and other global environmental changes and consider their individual and collective contributions to the US carbon budget now and in the likely future. Lastly, we identify some key challenges and opportunities for future research needed to improve current understanding, advance predictive capabilities, and inform forest management in the face of these pressures. Harvest is found to be the most extensive disturbance both in terms of area and carbon impacts, followed by fire, windthrow and bark beetles, and lastly droughts. Collectively these lead to the gross loss of about 200 Tg C y(exp -1) in live biomass annually across the conterminous US. At the same time, the net change in forest carbon stocks is positive (190 Tg C y(exp -1)), indicating not only forest resilience but also an apparently large response to growth enhancements such as fertilization by CO2 and nitrogen. Uncertainty about disturbance legacies, disturbance interactions, likely trends, and global change factors make the future of the US forest carbon sink unclear. While there is scope for management to enhance carbon sinks in US forests, tradeoffs with other values and uses are likely to significantly limit practical implementation. Continued and expanded remote sensing and field-based monitoring capabilities and manipulative experimentation are needed to improve understanding of the US forest carbon sink, and assess how disturbance processes are responding to the pressures of global environmental change. In addition, continued development and application of holistic, decision support tools that consider a range of forest values are needed to enable managers and policy makers to use the best available information for guiding forest resources now and into the future.

Williams, Christopher A.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Remote Sensing and Fluxes Upscaling for Real-world Impact (Workshop Report)

The "Remote Sensing and Fluxes Upscaling for Real-world Impact" workshop, held on July 9-10, 2024, at Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, was a collaborative effort led by the AmeriFlux Management Project, NEON, and the Carbon Dew Community of Practice. The event brought together over 200 registrants and approximately 100 attendees each day, including leading experts, researchers, and practitioners. The primary focus was on bridging the gap between cutting-edge research and practical applications in environmental monitoring by integrating remote sensing and flux data. Key themes included the importance of site-level measurements for validating remote sensing products, providing nature-based climate solutions, and addressing challenges such as instrument costs and the need for standardized methods. At the regional scale, discussions centered on addressing spatial heterogeneity and using high-resolution remote sensing and machine learning methods to enhance data interpretation. Global scale challenges included data consistency, gap filling, and accurate emission source identification, with opportunities for international collaboration and standardized practices to improve global carbon budget assessments. The workshop emphasized the critical need for integrating data across local, regional, and global scales through explicit scale-matching and developed a workflow for scaling flux data using "straight shot" and "explicit nesting" approaches. The event highlighted the importance of connecting scientific research with real-world applications in carbon, energy, and water management, ensuring that advancements translate into tangible societal benefits. These insights will guide future research, technology transfer, and collaboration, maximizing the potential of environmental fluxes to address real-world challenges.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2001

Thiols in Hydrothermal Solution: Standard Partial Molal Properties and Their Role in the Organic Geochemistry of Hydrothermal Environments

Modern seafloor hydrothermal systems are locations where great varieties of geochemistry occur due to the enormous disequilibrium between vent fluids and seawater. The disequilibrium geochemistry has been hypothesized to include reactions to synthesize organic compounds. Despite the incomplete understanding of the carbon budget in hydrothermal systems, the organic geochemistry of these sites has received little attention. Experimental simulations of these environments, however, indicate that organic compounds may have difficulty forming in a purely aqueous environment. On the other hand, thiols, thioesters and disulfides have been implicated as reaction intermediates between CO or CO2 in experiments of carbon reduction in hydrothermal environments, as well as in a variety of biological processes and other abiotic reactions. The reduction of CO2 to thesis, for example, is observed using the FeS-H2S/FeS2 couple to provide the reducing power. We have used recent advances in theoretical geochemistry to estimate the standard partial moral thermodynamic properties and parameters for the revised Helgeson-Kirkham-Flowers equation of state for aqueous straight-chain alkyl thesis. With these data and parameters we have evaluated the role that organic sulfur compounds may play as reaction intermediates during organic compound synthesis. We conclude that organic sulfur compounds may hold the key to the organic chemistry leading to the origin of life in hydrothermal settings. These results may also explain the presence of sulfur in a number of biomolecules present in ancient thermophilic microorganisms.

Schulte, Mitchell D.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Ocean Carbon From Space: Current Status and Priorities for the Next Decade

The ocean plays a central role in modulating the Earth’s carbon cycle. Monitoring how the ocean carbon cycle is changing is fundamental to managing climate change. Satellite remote sensing is currently our best tool for viewing the ocean surface globally and systematically, at high spatial and temporal resolutions, and the past few decades have seen an exponential growth in studies utilising satellite data for ocean carbon research. Satellite-based observations must be combined with in-situ observations and models, to obtain a comprehensive view of ocean carbon pools and fluxes. To help prioritise future research in this area, a workshop was organised that assembled leading experts working on the topic, from around the world, including remote-sensing scientists, field scientists and modellers, with the goal to articulate a collective view of the current status of ocean carbon research, identify gaps in knowledge, and formulate a scientific roadmap for the next decade, with an emphasis on evaluating where satellite remote sensing may contribute. A total of 449 scientists and stakeholders participated (with balanced gender representation), from North and South America, Europe, Asia, Africa, and Oceania. Sessions targeted both inorganic and organic pools of carbon in the ocean, in both dissolved and particulate form, as well as major fluxes of carbon between reservoirs (e.g., primary production) and at interfaces (e.g., air-sea and land–ocean). Extreme events, blue carbon and carbon budgeting were also key topics discussed. Emerging priorities identified include: expanding the networks and quality of in-situ observations; improved satellite retrievals; improved uncertainty quantification; improved understanding of vertical distributions; integration with models; improved techniques to bridge spatial and temporal scales of the different data sources; and improved fundamental understanding of the ocean carbon cycle, and of the interactions among pools of carbon and light. We also report on priorities for the specific pools and fluxes studied, and highlight issues and concerns that arose during discussions, such as the need to consider the environmental impact of satellites or space activities; the role satellites can play in monitoring ocean carbon dioxide removal approaches; economic valuation of the satellite based information; to consider how satellites can contribute to monitoring cycles of other important climatically-relevant compounds and elements; to promote diversity and inclusivity in ocean carbon research; to bring together communities working on different aspects of planetary carbon; maximising use of international bodies; to follow an open science approach; to explore new and innovative ways to remotely monitor ocean carbon; and to harness quantum computing. Overall, this paper provides a comprehensive scientific roadmap for the next decade on how satellite remote sensing could help monitor the ocean carbon cycle, and its links to the other domains, such as terrestrial and atmosphere.

oceanography↗
DOE OSTI2022

Near-Surface Hydrology and Soil Properties Drive Heterogeneity in Permafrost Distribution, Vegetation Dynamics, and Carbon Cycling in a Sub-Arctic Watershed: Modeling Archive

This Modeling Archive is in support of a NGEE-Arctic publication: Shirley et al. (2022) “Near-Surface Hydrology and Soil Properties Drive Heterogeneity in Permafrost Distribution, Vegetation Dynamics, and Carbon Cycling in a Sub-Arctic Watershed". [DOI].The dataset contains outputs from the global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of the “ecosys” model as reported in Shirley et al. (2022). The study showed that discontinuous permafrost environments are characterized by complex feedback loops and strong spatial heterogeneity which is created by variability in near-surface hydrology and soil properties. Additionally, the study demonstrated that missing representation of sub-grid heterogeneity in terrestrial ecosystem models can lead to biased estimates of the high-latitude carbon budget. Included in this dataset are the factor values for each run in the GSA and the model outputs used in this study. Included are two *.csv data files and one *.pdf.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climate Drives Modeled Forest Carbon Cycling Resistance and Resilience in the Upper Great Lakes Region, USA

Forests dominate the global terrestrial carbon budget, but their ability to continue doing so in the face of a changing climate is uncertain. A key uncertainty is how forests will respond (resistance) and recover from (resilience) to rising levels of disturbance of varying intensities. This knowledge gap can optimally be addressed by integrating manipulative field experiments with ecophysiological modeling. We used the ED-2.2 model to project carbon fluxes for a northern temperate deciduous forest subjected to a real-world disturbance severity manipulation experiment. ED-2.2 was run for 150 years, starting from near bare ground in 1900, and subjected to three disturbance treatments under an ensemble of climate conditions. Both disturbance severity and climate strongly affected carbon fluxes, and interacted with one another. We then calculated metrics of functional ecosystem stability. Modeled gross primary production exhibited a mean resistance of -0.13, -0.23, and -0.42 (unitless) in response to increasing disturbance severity of 45%, 65%, and 85% mortality, respectively; and resilience of 0.002, 0.004, 0.008 (yr-1) respectively. This pattern held true for other carbon fluxes, meaning that in general simulated GPP declined more initially but recovered more quickly from higher mortality. Notably, however, heterotrophic respiration responded more slowly to disturbance, and its highly variable response was affected by different drivers. This work provides insight into how future conditions might affect the functional stability of mature forests in this region under ongoing climate change and changing disturbance regimes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Files and scripts to support manuscript Needham et al. Canopy Gradients of Respiration

This dataset includes the parameter files, relevant output files, and scripts to perform analysis with Jupyter notebooks that support the manuscript Needham et al 2025 “Canopy Gradients of Respiration Drive Plant Carbon Budgets and Leaf Area Index.” We add functionality to the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) to allow flexible vertical gradients of leaf maintenance respiration (Rdark) and maximum carboxylation rate (Vcmax) through the canopy. We test the sensitivity of FATES to canopy gradients in Rdark, both in global simulations to assess broad scale impacts on leaf area index (LAI) and vegetation carbon, and in single site simulations where we assess impacts on plant functional type (PFT) competitive dynamics. Parameter files are netcdf files that can be converted to human readable .cdl files using NCO tools. Analysis scripts are Jupyter notebook files. These can be opened and run using the open source Jupyter notebook software. Model outputs are netcdf files.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2021

Climate drives modeled forest carbon cycling resistance and resilience in the Upper Great Lakes Region, USA

Forests dominate the global terrestrial carbon budget, but their ability to continue doing so in the face of a changing climate is uncertain. A key uncertainty is how forests will respond to (resistance) and recover from (resilience) rising levels of disturbance of varying intensities. This knowledge gap can optimally be addressed by integrating manipulative field experiments with ecophysiological modeling. We used the Ecosystem Demography-2.2 (ED-2.2) model to project carbon fluxes for a northern temperate deciduous forest subjected to a real-world disturbance severity manipulation experiment. ED-2.2 was run for 150 years, starting from near bare ground in 1900 (approximating the clear-cut conditions at the time), and subjected to three disturbance treatments under an ensemble of climate conditions. Both disturbance severity and climate strongly affected carbon fluxes such as gross primary production (GPP), and interacted with one another. We then calculated resistance and resilience, two dimensions of ecosystem stability. Modeled GPP exhibited a two-fold decrease in mean resistance across disturbance severities of 45%, 65%, and 85% mortality; conversely, resilience increased by a factor of two with increasing disturbance severity. This pattern held for net primary production and net ecosystem production, indicating a trade-off in which greater initial declines were followed by faster recovery. Notably, however, heterotrophic respiration responded more slowly to disturbance, and its highly variable response was affected by different drivers. This work provides insight into how future conditions might affect the functional stability of mature forests in this region under ongoing climate change and changing disturbance regimes.

Kalyn Dorheim↗
NASA NTRS2021

Climate drives modeled forest carbon cycling resistance and resilience in the Upper Great Lakes Region, USA

Forests dominate the global terrestrial carbon budget, but their ability to continue doing so in the face of a changing climate is uncertain. A key uncertainty is how forests will respond to (resistance) and recover from (resilience) rising levels of disturbance of varying intensities. This knowledge gap can optimally be addressed by integrating manipulative field experiments with ecophysiological modeling. We used the Ecosystem Demography-2.2 (ED-2.2)model to project carbon fluxes for a northern temperate deciduous forest subjected to a real-world disturbance severity manipulation experiment. ED-2.2 was run for 150 years, starting from near bare ground in 1900(approximating the clear-cut conditions at the time),and subjected to three disturbance treatments under an ensemble of climate conditions. Both disturbance severity and climate strongly affected carbon fluxes such as gross primary production (GPP),and interacted with one another. We then calculated resistance and resilience, two dimensions of ecosystem stability. Modeled GPP exhibited a two-fold decrease in mean resistance across disturbance severities of 45%, 65%, and 85% mortality; conversely, resilience increased by a factor of two with increasing disturbance severity. This pattern held for net primary production and net ecosystem production, indicating a trade-off in which greater initial declines were followed by faster recovery. Notably, however, heterotrophic respiration responded more slowly to disturbance, and its highly variable response was affected by different drivers. This work provides insight into how future conditions might affect the functional stability of mature forests in this region under ongoing climate change and changing disturbance regimes.

Kalyn Dorheim↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Streamlined Strategy for Biohydrogen Production with Halanaerobium hydrogeniformans , an Alkaliphilic Bacterium

Biofuels are anticipated to enable a shift from fossil fuels for renewable transportation and manufacturing fuels, with biohydrogen considered attractive since it could offer the largest reduction of global carbon budgets. Currently, lignocellulosic biohydrogen production remains inefficient with pretreatments that are heavily fossil fuel-dependent. However, bacteria using alkali-treated biomass could streamline biofuel production while reducing costs and fossil fuel needs. An alkaliphilic bacterium, Halanaerobium hydrogeniformans, is described that is capable of biohydrogen production at levels rivaling neutrophilic strains, but at pH 11 and hypersaline conditions. H. hydrogeniformans ferments a variety of 5- and 6-carbon sugars derived from hemicellulose and cellulose including cellobiose, and forms the end products hydrogen, acetate, and formate. Further, it can also produce biohydrogen from switchgrass and straw pretreated at temperatures far lower than any previously reported and in solutions compatible with growth. Hence, this bacterium can potentially increase the efficiency and efficacy of biohydrogen production from renewable biomass resources.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
NASA NTRS2020

Global Carbon Cycle and Climate Feedbacks in the NASA GISS ModelE2.1

We present results from the NASA GISS ModelE2.1‐G‐CC Earth System Model with coupled climate‐carbon cycle simulations that were submitted to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) Coupled Climate‐Carbon Cycle MIP (C4MIP). Atmospheric CO2 concentration and carbon budgets for the land and ocean in the historical simulations were generally consistent with observations. Low simulated atmospheric CO2 concentrations during 1850‐1950 were due to excess uptake from prescribed land cover change, which erroneously replaced arid shrublands with higher biomass crops, and assumed high 2004 LAI values in vegetated lands throughout the historical simulation. At the end of the historical period, slightly higher simulated CO2 than observed resulted from the land being an insufficient net carbon sink, despite the net effect of CO2 fertilization and warming‐induced increases to leaf photosynthetic capacity. The global ocean carbon uptake agreed well with the observations with the largest discrepancies in the low latitudes. Future climate projection at 2091‐2100 agreed with CMIP5 models in the northward shift, of temperate deciduous forest climate and expansion across Eurasia along 60 °N latitude, and dramatic regional biome shifts from drying and warming in continental Europe. Carbon feedback parameters were largely similar to the CMIP5 model ensemble. For our model, the variation of land feedback parameters within the uncertainty arises from the fertilization feedback being less sensitive due to lack of increased vegetation growth, and the comparably more negative ocean carbon‐climate feedback is due to the large slowdown of the Atlantic overturning circulation.

Carbon cycle↗
NASA NTRS1990

Carbon chemistry in dense molecular clouds: Theory and observational constraints

For the most part, gas phase models of the chemistry of dense molecular clouds predict the abundances of simple species rather well. However, for larger molecules and even for small systems rich in carbon these models often fail spectacularly. Researchers present a brief review of the basic assumptions and results of large scale modeling of the carbon chemistry in dense molecular clouds. Particular attention is to the influence of the gas phase C/O ratio in molecular clouds, and the likely role grains play in maintaining this ratio as clouds evolve from initially diffuse objects to denser cores with associated stellar and planetary formation. Recent spectral line surveys at centimeter and millimeter wavelengths along with selected observations in the submillimeter have now produced an accurate inventory of the gas phase carbon budget in several different types of molecular clouds, though gaps in our knowledge clearly remain. The constraints these observations place on theoretical models of interstellar chemistry can be used to gain insights into why the models fail, and show also which neglected processes must be included in more complete analyses. Looking toward the future, larger molecules are especially difficult to study both experimentally and theoretically in such dense, cold regions, and some new methods are therefore outlined which may ultimately push the detectability of small carbon chains and rings to much heavier species.

Blake, Geoffrey A.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Ocean-atmospheric linkages

This chapter focuses on the role of the ocean in the global carbon cycle on the time scale of decades to centuries. The input rate of CO2 to the atmosphere due to fossil fuel burning and deforestation has continued to increase over the last century. To balance the global carbon budget, a sink is required whose magnitude is changing on similar time scales. We have sought to identify aspects of the ocean system that are capable of responding on decadal time scales, to examine our present ability to model such changes, and to pinpoint ways in which this ability could be improved. Many other important aspects of the ocean's role in global change are not addressed, including the importance of oceanic heat transport and thermal inertia to the climate system, biogeochemical cycling of elements other than carbon, and the importance of the ocean as a source or sink of trace gases.

Rintoul, Stephen R.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems

Arctic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to climate change because of Arctic amplification. Here, we assessed the climatic impacts of low-end, 1.5 °C, and 2.0 °C global temperature increases above pre-industrial levels, on the warming of terrestrial ecosystems in northern high latitudes (NHL, above 60 °N including pan-Arctic tundra and boreal forests) under the framework of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b protocol. We analyzed the simulated changes of net primary productivity, vegetation biomass, and soil carbon stocks of eight ecosystem models that were forced by the projections of four global climate models and two atmospheric greenhouse gas pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0). Our results showed that considerable impacts on ecosystem carbon budgets, particularly primary productivity and vegetation biomass, are very likely to occur in the NHL areas. The models agreed on increases in primary productivity and biomass accumulation, despite considerable inter-model and inter-scenario differences in the magnitudes of the responses. The inter-model variability highlighted the inadequacies of the present models, which fail to consider important components such as permafrost and wildfire. The simulated impacts were attributable primarily to the rapid temperature increases in the NHL and the greater sensitivity of northern vegetation to warming, which contrasted with the less pronounced responses of soil carbon stocks. The simulated increases of vegetation biomass by 30–60 Pg C in this century have implications for climate policy such as the Paris Agreement. Comparison between the results at two warming levels showed the effectiveness of emission reductions in ameliorating the impacts and revealed unavoidable impacts for which adaptation options are urgently needed in the NHL ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Using CESM-RESFire to understand climate–fire–ecosystem interactions and the implications for decadal climate variability

Large wildfires exert strong disturbance on regional and global climate systems and ecosystems by perturbing radiative forcing as well as the carbon and water balance between the atmosphere and land surface, while short- and long-term variations in fire weather, terrestrial ecosystems, and human activity modulate fire intensity and reshape fire regimes. The complex climate–fire–ecosystem interactions were not fully integrated in previous climate model studies, and the resulting effects on the projections of future climate change are not well understood. Here we use the fully interactive REgion-Specific ecosystem feedback Fire model (RESFire) that was developed in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to investigate these interactions and their impacts on climate systems and fire activity. We designed two sets of decadal simulations using CESM-RESFire for present-day (2001–2010) and future (2051–2060) scenarios, respectively, and conducted a series of sensitivity experiments to assess the effects of individual feedback pathways among climate, fire, and ecosystems. Our implementation of RESFire, which includes online land–atmosphere coupling of fire emissions and fire-induced land cover change (LCC), reproduces the observed aerosol optical depth (AOD) from space-based Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite products and ground-based AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) data; it agrees well with carbon budget benchmarks from previous studies. We estimate the global averaged net radiative effect of both fire aerosols and fire-induced LCC at –0.59±0.52 W m –2 , which is dominated by fire aerosol–cloud interactions (–0.82±0.19 W m –2 ), in the present-day scenario under climatological conditions of the 2000s. The fire-related net cooling effect increases by ~170 % to –1.60±0.27 W m –2 in the 2050s under the conditions of the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario. Such considerably enhanced radiative effect is attributed to the largely increased global burned area (+19 %) and fire carbon emissions (+100 %) from the 2000s to the 2050s driven by climate change. The net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon between the land and atmosphere components in the simulations increases by 33 % accordingly, implying that biomass burning is an increasing carbon source at short-term timescales in the future. High-latitude regions with prevalent peatlands would be more vulnerable to increased fire threats due to climate change, and the increase in fire aerosols could counter the projected decrease in anthropogenic aerosols due to air pollution control policies in many regions. We also evaluate two distinct feedback mechanisms that are associated with fire aerosols and fire-induced LCC, respectively. On a global scale, the first mechanism imposes positive feedbacks to fire activity through enhanced droughts with suppressed precipitation by fire aerosol–cloud interactions, while the second one manifests as negative feedbacks due to reduced fuel loads by fire consumption and post-fire tree mortality and recovery processes. These two feedback pathways with opposite effects compete at regional to global scales and increase the complexity of climate–fire–ecosystem interactions and their climatic impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Economic and biophysical limits to seaweed farming for climate change mitigation

Net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions targets are driving interest in opportunities for biomass-based negative emissions and bioenergy, including from marine sources such as seaweed. Yet the biophysical and economic limits to farming seaweed at scales relevant to the global carbon budget have not been assessed in detail. We use coupled seaweed growth and technoeconomic models to estimate the costs of global seaweed production and related climate benefits, systematically testing the relative importance of model parameters. Under our most optimistic assumptions, sinking farmed seaweed to the deep sea to sequester a gigaton of CO 2 per year costs as little as US$\$$480 per tCO 2 on average, while using farmed seaweed for products that avoid a gigaton of CO 2 -equivalent GHG emissions annually could return a profit of $\$$50 per tCO 2 -eq. However, these costs depend on low farming costs, high seaweed yields, and assumptions that almost all carbon in seaweed is removed from the atmosphere (that is, competition between phytoplankton and seaweed is negligible) and that seaweed products can displace products with substantial embodied non-CO 2 GHG emissions. Moreover, the gigaton-scale climate benefits we model would require farming very large areas (>90,000 km 2 )—a >30-fold increase in the area currently farmed. Our results therefore suggest that seaweed-based climate benefits may be feasible, but targeted research and demonstrations are needed to further reduce economic and biophysical uncertainties.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Probabilistic feasibility assessment of sequestration reliance for climate targets

Countries worldwide are transforming their energy systems to achieve Carbon-Neutrality. Investing in renewable resources-based technologies and implementing Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) are common strategies to achieve higher sequestration levels. Negative emissions through Bioenergy with CCS are expected to play an essential role in the transition to full decarbonization. On top of that, biomass is a limited resource that depends on environmental factors, which create uncertainties related to the amount that can be sustainably provided to the energy system. Here this study emphasizes the relevance of variability in carbon sequestration for achieving climate targets by 2050. Here this paper proposes a probabilistic approach that integrates the Global Change Analysis Model for Latin America (GCAM-LA) with a chance constraint approach. GCAM-LA is used to assess the impact on the energy sector of different limits of sustainable biomass and carbon budget scenarios. The risk associated with exceeding the sequestration capacity of a given region is modeled via Chance Constraint. Results show that electrification is an appropriate long-term decarbonization strategy. It smoothes the effects of uncertainty in sequestration capacity and responds to end-user demands. For this case study, higher levels of electrification are obtained at likelihood levels >66% for end-use sectors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

An Updated Life Cycle Assessment of Utility-Scale Solar Photovoltaic Systems Installed in the United States

Given the high deployment targets for solar photovoltaics (PV) needed to meet U.S. decarbonization goals, and the limited carbon budget remaining to limit global temperature rise, accurate accounting of the energy-use and greenhouse-gas emissions over the life-cycle of PV systems is needed. In the United States, most PV systems are large utility-scale systems which use single-axis trackers and central inverters, which are not commonly examined in existing life-cycle assessment (LCA) literature. In this study, we present a cradle-to-grave LCA of a typical silicon U.S. utility PV (UPV) installation which is consistent with the utility system features documented in the annual NREL PV system cost benchmark reports. We analyze and present results for four main metrics: cumulative energy demand (CED), greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, energy payback time (EPBT), and carbon payback time (CPBT). We consider six primary manufacturing options: three based on an imported PV module supply chain (comparing low-carbon imports, high-carbon imports, and average imports), and three based on a potential domestic PV module supply chain (comparing low-carbon U.S. regions, high-carbon U.S. regions, and average U.S. regions). These manufacturing options were then paired with installation locations to create six main cases: low-carbon options were installed in Phoenix (Arizona), high-carbon options were installed in Seattle (Washington), and average options were installed in Fredonia (Kansas). These locations were selected to represent a range of irradiance and grid mixes in the United States, in order to illustrate the likely range of EPBTs and CPBTs possible across the United States. For all six cases, a sensitivity analysis for end-of-life (EOL) handling was explored to capture current and future management options: landfilling, partial recycling, and high-quality recycling. For the purposes of this report, the benchmark system was defined to use an average imported supply chain with partial recycling, installed in Fredonia (Kansas). CED results show ratios at or below 0.1 MJ oil-eq /MJgenerated which demonstrates efficient use of primary energy resources (below a 1:1 ratio), and represents a slight improvement over previous results in literature. GHG emissions per kWh range from 10-36 g CO 2 e, which are consistent with or lower than previous results published by NREL and IEA-PVPS. We use a graphical approach for calculating EPBT and CPBT in this report, which improves upon methods typically used in literature by accounting for non-linearity and avoiding data quality issues associated with long-term projections. EPBT was determined to vary from 0.5 to 1.2 years, with a benchmark EPBT of 0.6 years; CPBT was shown to vary from 0.8 to 20 years, with benchmark CPBT of 2.1 years, which is lower than other estimates from recent literature (typically >2 years).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗