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At least 127 records · Page 7

Sources, Transport, and Climate Impacts of Biomass Burning Aerosols

In this presentation, I will first talk about fundamentals of modeling of biomass burning emissions of aerosols, then show the results of GOCART model simulated biomass burning aerosols. I will compare the model results with observations of satellite and ground-based network in terms of total aerosol optical depth, aerosol absorption optical depth, and vertical distributions. Finally the long-range transport of biomass burning aerosols and the climate effects will be addressed. I will also discuss the uncertainties associated with modeling and observations of biomass burning aerosols

Chin, Mian↗

Rapid Spaceborne Mapping of Wildfire Retardant Drops for Active Wildfire Management

Aerial application of fire retardant is a critical tool for managing wildland fire spread. Retardant applications are carefully planned to maximize fire line effectiveness, improve firefighter safety, protect high-value resources and assets, and limit environmental impact. However, topography, wind, visibility, and aircraft orientation can lead to differences between planned drop locations and the actual placement of the retardant. Information on the precise placement and areal extent of the dropped retardant can provide wildland fire managers with key information to (1) adaptively manage event resources, (2) assess the effectiveness of retardant slowing or stopping fire spread, (3) document location in relation to ecologically sensitive areas; and perform or validate cost-accounting for drop services. This study uses Sentinel-2 satellite data and commonly used machine learning classifiers to test an automated approach for detecting and mapping retardant application. We show that a multiclass model (retardant, burned, unburned, and cloud artifact classes) outperforms a single-class retardant model and that image differencing (post-application minus pre-application) outperforms single-image models. Compared to the random forest and support vector machine, the gradient boosting model performed the best with an overall accuracy of 0.88 and an F1 Score of 0.76 for fire retardant, though results were comparable for all three models. Our approach maps the full areal extent of the dropped retardant within minutes of image availability, rather than linear representations currently mapped by aerial GPS surveys. The development of this capability allows for the rapid assessment of retardant effectiveness and documentation of placement in relation to sensitive environments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA SPoRT’s Streamflow-AI: Updates and Advancements

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) has been running a near-real-time deep learning model, Streamflow-AI, that predicts stream heights at over 250 locations across the Eastern United States out to 7 days for several years. This project was born out of a research-to-operations/operation-to-research (R2O/O2R) paradigm within SPoRT through extensive collaboration with National Weather Service (NWS) and River Forecast Center (RFC) forecasters. The original intention of Streamflow-AI was to provide accurate medium range (>2 days) forecasts of river flooding events that are particularly challenging for NWS forecasters, because routine streamflow forecasts may not incorporate quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) data beyond one or two days. Therefore, Streamflow-AI was designed to help fill the operational gap, producing routine 7 day river level forecasts using a suite of QPFs. Throughout the evolution of the project, research efforts have been tailored to meet the needs of the end users. This presentation will provide a brief overview of NASA SPoRT’s Streamflow-AI product, highlighting O2R/R2O concepts with a focus on recent developments including a 1-hr rapid update model and 15-min burn scar flooding modeling efforts.

Flooding↗

Internal ballistics model update for ASRM dome

A previous report (no. 5-32279, contract NAS8-36955, DO 51) describes the measures taken to adapt the NASA Complex Burning Region Model and code so that is was applicable to the Advanced Solid Rocket Motor as envisioned at that time. The code so modified was called the CBRM-A. CBRM-A could calculate the port volume and burning area for the star, transition, and cylindrically perforated regions of the motor. Described here is a subsequent effort to add computation of port volume and burning area for the Advanced Solid Rocket Motor head dome. Sample output, input, and overview of the models are included. The software was configured in two forms - a stand alone head dome code and a code integrating the head dome solution with the CBRM-A.

Bowden, Mark H.↗

PPPL Report on Reduced Modeling of Fusion Alpha Transport in ARC Burning Plasmas

We are reporting on the modeling of fusion alpha particle transport in the planned ARC fusion device being designed by the CFS (Commonwealth Fusion Systems: https://cfs.energy). The ARC tokamak is designed to operate in a burning-plasma regime characterized by a substantial population of fusion-born alpha particles. Alfvén eigenmode (AE) stability is assessed both analytically and numerically, incorporating alpha-particle drive, ion Landau, and radiative damping from thermal species and collisional damping from trapped electrons. Regions of unstable and near-threshold AE activity are mapped across ARC’s operational parameter space. Linear stability analysis with NOVA indicates multiple, often marginally unstable AEs, extending to toroidal mode numbers up to n= 30. The present report focuses on the ARC flat-top operating point prior to the sawtooth event. Alpha-particle transport on timescales exceeding the neoclassical slowing-down time is assessed using the NUBEAM module [1][2] of the TRANSP code [3], employing transport coefficients derived from the RBQ quasilinear modeling (cf. Appendix B). These global simulations identify favorable and unfavorable operating regimes with respect to alpha confinement, pressure redistribution, and overall alpha-heating efficiency. We also evaluate additional transport mechanisms—including neoclassical tearing mode (TM)–induced stochasticity, sawtooth-driven redistribution, and toroidal-field ripple using the kick model (cf. Appendix C) which makes use of the guiding-center code ORBIT, see Section 5. The kick model is integrated into TRANSP to enable self-consistent predictions of alpha-driven current formation and sustainment within the ARC scenario. Sensitivity scans are performed over the mode frequency, rational-surface alignment, island width, mode amplitude, and proximity of the limiter to the plasma. Our study provides an initial, physics-based guidance for machine design, operational planning, and equilibrium control, ensuring adequate alpha confinement and robust self-heating performance in ARC. Our simulations mostly targeted worst case scenarios, e.g. for TMs and sawteeth. Overall, we expect benign effects for the ARC scenario investigated in this work on fusion alpha confinement and losses in the presence of AEs, tearing modes and sawteeth. This report addresses three thrusts identified at the outset. The first thrust focuses on analytic estimates of the parametric dependencies of EP relaxation based on local AE stability simulations (Section 3). The second thrust involves global evaluations of AE stability using the NOVA, RBQ, and NUBEAM codes (Section 4). Finally, we investigate alpha-particle transport driven by low-frequency instabilities associated with sawteeth and tearing modes (Section 5).

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Hyperbolic Rendezvous at Mars: Risk Assessments and Mitigation Strategies

Given the current interest in the use of flyby trajectories for human Mars exploration, a key requirement is the capability to execute hyperbolic rendezvous. Hyperbolic rendezvous is used to transport crew from a Mars centered orbit, to a transiting Earth bound habitat that does a flyby. Representative cases are taken from future potential missions of this type, and a thorough sensitivity analysis of the hyperbolic rendezvous phase is performed. This includes early engine cutoff, missed burn times, and burn misalignment. A finite burn engine model is applied that assumes the hyperbolic rendezvous phase is done with at least two burns.

Jedrey, Ricky↗

Model Sensitivities of Biomass-Burning Aerosol Chemical Aging, Sulfate Formation, and Cloud Droplet Activation in the Southeastern Atlantic Using CESM and E3SM

Biomass-burning smoke drives large uncertainty in climate projections of the Earth's radiative balance. This is due to the chemical and physical evolution of smoke and its impact on clouds and radiation. Here we focus on the southeastern Atlantic region and its inflow of African biomass-burning smoke during August 2017. We evaluate smoke properties and processes in two coupled earth-system models, the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and Community Earth System Model (CESM). These are compared against in situ aircraft observations from two field campaigns, ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS (ORACLES) and CLoud–Aerosol–Radiation Interaction and Forcing: Year 2017 (CLARIFY-2017). Observations reveal an increase and subsequent decrease in smoke mean diameter, and a steady decrease in the mass ratio of organic aerosol (OA) to black carbon aerosol (BC) (OA:BC) over 4–12 days of aging, neither captured by the base models. Implementation of a photolytic loss scheme for secondary organic aerosol (SOA)—as a proxy for other heterogeneous volatilization chemistry—and a ∼1-day conversion for primary OA to SOA significantly improves the representation of this loss. In the boundary layer, both models show dimethyl sulfide driving a large increase in the sulfate aerosol mass fraction from the free troposphere, which is consistent with observations. Finally, models tend to underpredict cloud droplet number concentration partially due to weak modeled turbulent updraft strength, and model performance improves when the parameterized turbulent updraft strength is increased substantially. These results are expected to provide insights into future model development to reduce climate model uncertainties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying Burned Area of Wildfires in the Western United States From Polar-Orbiting and Geostationary Satellite Active-Fire Detections

Background : Accurately estimating burned area from satellites is key to improving biomass burning emission models, studying fire evolution and assessing environmental impact. Previous studies have found that current methods for estimating burned area of fires from satellite active-fire data do not always provide an accurate estimate. Aims and Methods : In this work, we develop a novel algorithm to estimate hourly accumulated burned area based on the area from boundaries of non-convex polygons containing the accumulated Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS)active-fire detections. Hourly time series are created by combining VIIRS estimates with fire radiative power (FRP) estimates from GOES-17 data. Conclusions, Key Results and Implication : We evaluate the performance of the algorithm for both accumulated and change in burned area between airborne observations, and specifically examine sensitivity to the choice of the parameter controlling how much the boundary can shrink towards the interior of the area polygon. Results of the hourly accumulation of burned area for multiple fires from 2019 and 2020 generally correlate strongly with airborne infrared (IR) observations collected by the United States Forest Service National Infrared Operations (NIROPS), exhibiting correlation coefficient values usually greater than 0.95 and errors <20%.

burned area↗

Identifying Chemical and Optical Smoke Signatures in Suborbital Observations to Improve Model Projections

Biomass Burning (BB) fires are expected to occur more frequently in the future due to climate change, the build‐up of fuels due to fire suppression, and the expansion of the wildland‐urban interface [Schoennagel et al., 2017; Shivdenko & Schepaschenko, 2013; Stevens et al., 2014; Turner et al., 2019; Yue et al., 2015; Tilman et al., 2001]. Accurate knowledge of the abundance, distribution, and optical properties of absorbing aerosols such as BB smoke is essential to understanding regional and global aerosol radiative effects [Boucher et al., 2013]. It is recognized that differing fuel types (e.g., rice straw, ponderosa pine), combustion modes (i.e., flaming, smoldering or both) and temperature/ moisture content produce smoke with differing optical characteristics (e.g., aerosol light scattering and absorption) and component mixing ratios [e.g., BC, OC and inorganic species such as sulfate, potassium, chloride; Streets et al. 2003; Reid et al., 2005a, b; Janhäll et al., 2010; Sayer et al., 2014]. However, climate models often ascribe a fixed set of emission factors [i.e., amount of particulate for a given species released in the atmosphere per unit dry fuel burned; Darmenov and Dasilva, 2013] and optical properties [Hess et al., 1998] to all BB aerosol plumes, inherently limiting accurate representation of the global and regional heterogeneity of BB. The overarching goal of the proposed work is to improve the microphysical and optical representation of different types of Biomass Burning in Chemistry Transport Models. Our strategy is to capitalize on multiple airborne campaigns (e.g., ARCTAS, SEAC4RS, ORACLES, FIREX-AQ), which sampled different types of BB plumes at different aging stages. Models, when improved and combined with satellite, airborne, and ground observations will help address many aerosol science objectives from the NASA Decadal survey [National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018].

Meloe Shenandoah F Kacenelenbogen↗

Regional variability of dust single scattering albedo due to mineral composition

Nearly all Earth System Models (ESMs) assume globally homogeneous dust aerosols, neglecting regional variations of the imaginary refractive index (IRI) due to varying mineral composition. This has led to a range of single scattering albedo (SSA) and direct radiative forcing (DRF) estimates, as models assign global properties using dust measurements from different regions. We use model and observational data to assess to what extent regionally varying mineral composition affects visible-band SSA and short-wave DRF of dust. We run global simulations with NASA GISS ModelE2.1, using optical properties for minerals based on laboratory-derived empirical relationships between dust IRI at visible wavelengths and the mineral content of iron oxides. When allowing mineral variations instead of homogeneous dust, we find regional differences in dust SSA up to ~0.06 and consequent variations in DRF up to ~6 and ~5 W/m2, at surface and top-of-atmosphere respectively. We compare model SSA with AERONET inversion data (Version 3.0, Level 2), filtered by aerosol size and optical properties to identify pure dust scenes. To investigate possible contamination by biomass burning aerosols, we use the dataset of Schuster et al. (2016, doi:10.5194/acp-16-1565-2016), who separately calculated the contribution of iron oxides and carbonaceous species to AERONET extinction and absorption optical depths. Our results show that: (1) the range of observed SSA (even without carbonaceous species) is larger than that resulting from homogeneous dust; (2) residual amounts of fine mode black and brown carbon may affect AERONET SSA even in seasons with limited biomass burning; (3) model SSA from our mineral scheme exceeds the AERONET range, possibly due also to an uncertain treatment of goethite. In summary, homogeneous dust cannot explain the variability of observed SSA, so regionally varying optical properties based on mineral content are necessary. Higher accuracy in soil mineralogy maps is needed to better reproduce SSA variations at regional scales. Also, distinct soil maps for hematite and goethite are required, given the high sensitivity of model SSA to their extreme optical properties.

V. Obiso↗

Solid propellant rocket motor internal ballistics performance variation analysis, phase 3

Results of research aimed at improving the predictability of off nominal internal ballistics performance of solid propellant rocket motors (SRMs) including thrust imbalance between two SRMs firing in parallel are reported. The potential effects of nozzle throat erosion on internal ballistic performance were studied and a propellant burning rate low postulated. The propellant burning rate model when coupled with the grain deformation model permits an excellent match between theoretical results and test data for the Titan IIIC, TU455.02, and the first Space Shuttle SRM (DM-1). Analysis of star grain deformation using an experimental model and a finite element model shows the star grain deformation effects for the Space Shuttle to be small in comparison to those of the circular perforated grain. An alternative technique was developed for predicting thrust imbalance without recourse to the Monte Carlo computer program. A scaling relationship used to relate theoretical results to test results may be applied to the alternative technique of predicting thrust imbalance or to the Monte Carlo evaluation. Extended investigation into the effect of strain rate on propellant burning rate leads to the conclusion that the thermoelastic effect is generally negligible for both steadily increasing pressure loads and oscillatory loads.

Sforzini, R. H.↗

A model for radiative heating of a high-Z pusher

Several approaches to Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF), including double-shell, pushered-single-shell, and the Revolver designs, have fuel surrounded by pushers made from high-Z materials. An advantage of these designs is that radiation emitted by the hot fuel will be absorbed and re-radiated into the fuel to reduce cooling. This process is referred to as radiation-trapping, and it lowers the fuel temperature required for ignition. To elucidate the physics of radiation trapping, a simplified model comprising a set of coupled differential equations has been developed to model the arbitrary time-dependent wall temperature from the Hammer and Rosen solution [J. H. Hammer and M. D. Rosen, Phys. Plasmas 10, 1829 (2003)] to a Marshak wave. The derivation of the model and a set of analytical power-law solutions will be presented. A discussion on numerical implementation of the differential equations into a model for burn in ICF capsules is also included.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Neutral beams for the burning plasma era: Simulations and modeling of deuterium ion beams for plasma heating (CRADA Final Report)

Together with Realta Fusion, we set up several simulation scenarios and ran simulations using the WarpX code which is developed by LBNL and especially by members of the LBNL team. We investigated beam transport and beam neutralization and ran optimization and benchmark simulations. To achieve this, several new features were added to the warpX code. These code additions will also be beneficial to other users of warpX including several fusion companies and researchers at National Laboratories. Furthermore, we supported Realta Fusion in setting up their own instances of WarpX. We presented our results at the American Physical Society Division of Plasma Physics meeting and are in the process of writing a publication that will be submitted to a peer-reviewed journal to share our results with the broader community.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Solid Rocket Motor Technology

These Conference Proceedings contain the 36 papers presented at the AGARD Propulsion and Energetics Panel 53rd Symposium on "Solid Rocket Motor Technology", which was held in Oslo, Norway, 2-5 April 1979. The questions and answers after the various presentations are included as well as the Round Table Discussion. The Symposium was organized into seven sessions: Survey Papers (2); Ignition, Extinction and Internal Ballistics (8); Burn Rate Modelling and Combustion of Metal (5); New Propellants (5); Combustion Instability (7); Heat Transfer and Materials (3); and Testing and Instrumentation (6).The Symposium provided a forum for discussion and exchange between research scientists ,propellant formulators and motor technologists. Though main emphasis was placed on transient processes like ignition and extinction and on combustion instability with the various related aspects there were a number of papers dealing with propellants, their characteristics and their development. Whether the symposium achieved its initial aim, i.e. furnishing a comprehensive survey of the technology available for solid propellant rocket motors and its further development capabilities, will be assessed in a Technical Evaluation Report, to be published as AGARD Advisory Report AR 151.

Advisory Group for Aerospace Research and Developm↗