Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “building stock modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Large scale energy analysis and renovation strategies for social housing in the historic city of Venice

Social houses built after the Second World War to accommodate workers and low-income families represent one of the major energy consumers and greenhouse gas emitters in the residential sector. Plans for their renovation are underway in all European countries, and the process is more complicated for Italian cities due to the lack of space and the large number of historical buildings. This study addresses this challenge by proposing a methodology to renovate a low-income district in the city of Venice using CityBES to model and evaluate energy conservation measures. CityBES is a web-based tool that allows users to employ urban building energy modeling for large-scale energy and retrofit analyses of building stocks. In the case study conducted for Venice's Santa Marta district, due to the particular context, four common energy conservation measures covering both the building envelope and heat generation boilers have been applied. The evaluation of energy-saving performances at the district level showed that the four measures together achieved 67% energy savings, an abatement in energy cost equal to 67%, and annual carbon dioxide emissions reduction of 1.1 MtCO 2 . Furthermore, the case study demonstrates a method and workflow replicable for energy retrofit analysis of building stocks in other historical districts.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Investigating Building Energy Consumption and CO2 Emission in Phoenix Using AutoBEM and Future Typical Meteorological Year (fTMY) Weather Data

This research investigates the energy performance and CO2 emissions of each building stock across the Phoenix metropolitan area using the Automatic Building Energy Modeling (AutoBEM) framework and Model America v2 (MAv2) dataset from Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) and Future Typical Meteorological Year (fTMY) files were used for AutoBEM simulation. The simulation results from TMY and fTMY were compared. It was found that a projected 10.28% increase in total CO2 emissions and a 9.30% rise in total energy consumption by 2080–2099 relative to current typical conditions. The results highlight the disparities in emissions among different building stocks and the influence of climate change on future energy demand. The findings underscore the necessity of targeted policy interventions and retrofitting strategies (eg. advanced HVAC systems, improved insulation, reflective roofing) to mitigate emissions in high-energy-use and emission-intensed buildings, particularly as climate conditions evolve. This study contributes to the growing understanding of building-sector emissions and their long-term implications under future climate scenarios.

Li, Hang [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000306001920)↗
NASA NTRS2005

An Improved Analysis of Forest Carbon Dynamics using Data Assimilation

There are two broad approaches to quantifying landscape C dynamics - by measuring changes in C stocks over time, or by measuring fluxes of C directly. However, these data may be patchy, and have gaps or biases. An alternative approach to generating C budgets has been to use process-based models, constructed to simulate the key processes involved in C exchange. However, the process of model building is arguably subjective, and parameters may be poorly defined. This paper demonstrates why data assimilation (DA) techniques - which combine stock and flux observations with a dynamic model - improve estimates of, and provide insights into, ecosystem carbon (C) exchanges. We use an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to link a series of measurements with a simple box model of C transformations. Measurements were collected at a young ponderosa pine stand in central Oregon over a 3-year period, and include eddy flux and soil C02 efflux data, litterfall collections, stem surveys, root and soil cores, and leaf area index data. The simple C model is a mass balance model with nine unknown parameters, tracking changes in C storage among five pools; foliar, wood and fine root pools in vegetation, and also fresh litter and soil organic matter (SOM) plus coarse woody debris pools. We nested the EnKF within an optimization routine to generate estimates from the data of the unknown parameters and the five initial conditions for the pools. The efficacy of the DA process can be judged by comparing the probability distributions of estimates produced with the EnKF analysis vs. those produced with reduced data or model alone. Using the model alone, estimated net ecosystem exchange of C (NEE)= -251 f 197g Cm-2 over the 3 years, compared with an estimate of -419 f 29gCm-2 when all observations were assimilated into the model. The uncertainty on daily measurements of NEE via eddy fluxes was estimated at 0.5gCm-2 day-1, but the uncertainty on assimilated estimates averaged 0.47 g Cm-2 day-1, and only exceeded 0.5gC m-2 day-1 on days where neither eddy flux nor soil efflux data were available. In generating C budgets, the assimilation process reduced the uncertainties associated with using data or model alone and the forecasts of NEE were statistically unbiased estimates. The results of the analysis emphasize the importance of time series as constraints. Occasional, rare measurements of stocks have limited use in constraining the estimates of other components of the C cycle. Long time series are particularly crucial for improving the analysis of pools with long time constants, such as SOM, woody biomass, and woody debris. Long-running forest stem surveys, and tree ring data, offer a rich resource that could be assimilated to provide an important constraint on C cycling of slow pools. For extending estimates of NEE across regions, DA can play a further important role, by assimilating remote-sensing data into the analysis of C cycles. We show, via sensitivity analysis, how assimilating an estimate of photosynthesis - which might be provided indirectly by remotely sensed data - improves the analysis of NEE.

Williams, Mathew↗
DOE OSTI2026

Satellite Embedding-Based Population Imputation for Areas with Missing Building Footprint Data: A Computer Vision-Based Approach

High-resolution population modeling is important for supporting effective decision-making across diverse sectors. LandScan Mosaic generates population estimates at the level of individual buildings and aggregates them to 3 arc-second grids, and this approach performs well in regions where building footprint data are comprehensive and reliable. However, large portions of the globe still suffer from incomplete, sparse, or entirely missing building stock datasets, creating a structural limitation for strictly building-based population models. To address this research gap, this study proposes a computer vision-based framework that employs Google Earth Engine satellite embeddings and UNet, which allows us to directly impute grid-level population estimates in building-data-deficient areas. Applied to Taiwan as a case study, the framework achieved strong predictive performance with R$^{2}$ of 0.89, RMSE of 18.70, and MAE of 8.41, outperforming traditional machine learning approaches. Notably, the proposed framework effectively addressed building false-positive errors inherent in Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) data, correctly identifying uninhabited areas that were erroneously classified as populated. The framework also offers significant advantages for global population mapping, particularly in terms of scalability and temporal consistency, thereby extending the coverage and accuracy of high-resolution population products in data-scarce regions worldwide. Urban planners, decision makers, and related stakeholders can obtain granular population distributions to support more accurate and targeted infrastructure investment, service delivery, resource allocation, and risk assessment decisions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Methods for Computing Physically Realistic Estimates of Electric Water Heater Demand Response Resource Suitable for Bulk Power System Planning Models

Demand response is commonly called on to reduce load during system peak times or to respond to contingency events. In future power systems with higher shares of wind and solar generation (which we describe together as variable generation [VG]), demand response could have more opportunities to provide energy shifting or operating reserve services. This report evaluates the ability of residential electric water heaters, both electric resistance water heaters (ERWHs) and heat pump water heaters (HPWHs), to provide such services starting from detailed whole-building energy models that realistically represent New England single family home stock. We use a parsimonious surrogate model to represent operational flexibility in a form suitable for linear and mixed integer programming. This enables relatively fast determination of aggregate contingency reserve resource, price-taking energy shifting outcomes, and in some cases the determination of aggregate models at the megawatt (MW) scale that can be directly included in large-scale grid models. After selecting modeling methods and parameters through various computational experiments, we find interquartile ranges of contingency reserve resource in ISO-NE for about 603,400 ERWHs of 45 MW - 69 MW for Claim10 (50 minute responses provided with 10 minutes of advanced notification) and 65 MW - 102 MW for Claim30 (30 minute responses provided with 30 minutes of advanced notification), and for about 619,000 HPWHs of 48 MW - 88 MW for Claim10 and 52 MW - 90 MW for Claim30. The overall reserve resource is up to 32% of total load for ERWHs providing Claim10 service, 47% for ERWHs providing Claim30 service, 93% for HPWHs providing Claim10 service, and 97% for HPWHs providing Claim30 service. More work is required to determine if HPWHs are inherently more suitable than ERWHs for providing contingency reserve or if these results reflect idiosyncrasies of the single family home stock model used in this study. The value of this contingency resource in a Near-term VG model of ISO-NE is $\$ 0.40$ to $\$1.20$ per water heater-year, and significantly larger, $\$ 3.80$ to $\$ 5.30$ per water heater-year in a Mid-term VG model of ISONE. Aggregating surrogate models to the MW-scale for energy shifting service is more challenging than for contingency service and we only present such results for ERWHs, because we were unable to determine satisfactory ways to deal with HPWHs' time-varying and path dependent operational characteristics. Individual surrogate models suitable for evaluating the energy shifting resource from both ERWHs and HPWHs are created, however, and dispatched against day-ahead prices from the Near-Term VG and Mid-Term VG models of ISO-NE. The individual surrogate models are able to access and potentially shift all 640 GWh of HPWH load and 1,547 GWh of ERWH load we modeled in two different single family home stock models. In contrast, the most effective model of aggregate ERWH shifting resource we created only captured 34.7% of the total ERWH load. Energy shifting affected by price-taking dispatch against modeled day-ahead energy prices produces per water heater year profits of $\$19.44$ - $\$22.93$ for individual HPWHs, $\$39.11$ - $\$40.54$ for individual ERWHs, and up to $\$4.00$ - $\$4.24$ for aggregated ERWHs, with the variations mainly due to grid conditions (more or less VG). When the supply-side response to these changes is accounted for, the per water heater year production cost savings for ISO-NE are $\$7.50$ to $\$17.70$ for the most effective set of endogenously dispatched aggregate ERWHs, $\$15.60$ to $\$15.70$ for individual ERWHs dispatched against the DA prices, and $\$10.70$ to $\$11.20$ for individual HPWHs dispatched against DA prices. Those ranges primarily represent the difference between Near-Term VG and Mid-Term VG grid conditions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Solar+Storage for Household Back-up Power: Implications of building efficiency, load flexibility, and electrification for backup during long-duration power interruptions [Slides]

The study analyzes the evolving role of solar+storage for home backup power during long-duration power interruptions. In particular, it evaluates how required storage sizing is impacted as homes become more efficient, flexible, and electrified. The study relies on NREL’s ResStock building modeling platform to create statistically representative distributions of the existing building stock in ten locations across the United States. It then shows how the amount battery storage required for backup power rises or falls as a series of building envelope efficiency, load flexibility, and electrification measures are applied across the building stock in each region. The study also includes sensitivities to show how backup power requirements are impacted by the timing and duration of power interruptions, and explores variation in backup power requirements across the building stock within each study location. The results demonstrate the value of pairing solar+storage with efficiency upgrades, smart home controls, and (in mild winter climates) efficient heat pump retrofits. That value comes in the form of reducing the amount of storage required and/or extending the range of interruption conditions over which a given system can provide backup power (i.e., more extreme weather and/or longer interruptions). Heat pumps in cold-weather climates can pose a challenge for solar+storage backup power, given the amount of storage required, though are a vast improvement over electric-resistance heating. Retaining existing fossil-based heating systems for occasional use during power interruptions, as either the primary or supplementary source of heat, can mitigate this challenge. Other forms of building electrification (e.g., cooking and water heating) generally have marginal impacts on backup battery sizing, given their relatively small energy demand.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling Air Handling Units to Create a Diverse Fault Dataset for FDD Innovation: Lessons Learned and Recommendations

As energy management and information systems (e.g., automated fault detection and diagnostics [AFDD] tools) become more prevalent in the commercial building stock, it is important to determine the effectiveness of these technologies by benchmarking their performance. The authors have been working to develop the largest publicly available dataset of HVAC fault datasets for performance benchmarking applications, covering the most common HVAC systems and designs including chiller plants, rooftop packaged units, dual duct air handling unit and single duct air handling units. This study covers the development, modeling, and validation of a synthetic fault dataset for the air handling unit (AHU), one of the most common HVAC configurations found in the commercial building stock. Despite this being a common system, real-world time series data are scarce and usually do not span a wide range of weather conditions. Due to this limitation, two detailed AHU models, which included the single duct AHU and dual duct AHU developed in the Modelica language and HVACSIM+ were employed to carry out annual simulations of numerous common sensor faults, mechanical faults, and control sequence faults. The fault inclusive data were then validated by comparing fault effects on system performance to expected symptoms. We summarize the nature of each fault and their impacts under different weather and operation conditions. We report some lessons learnt during the efforts of validating the high volumes of the FDD data sets. Finally, we highlight considerations for FDD developers that may want to use this dataset to assess their algorithms’ performance and their improvement over time.

Casillas, Armando↗
DOE OSTI2024

SIGHT: Stacked Integration of Geospatial Hierarchical Typologies for Inferring Building Characteristics

Building characteristics are often absent in building stock datasets, particularly in regions most vulnerable to climate change and requiring effective disaster management strategies. Traditional machine learning approaches, while widely used to predict building attributes, typically neglect the spatial context of the data, leading to less accurate and reliable outcomes. To address these challenges, this paper introduces a novel algorithm, the Stacked Integration of Geospatial Hierarchical Typologies. This algorithm adapts a meta-learning framework to incorporate geospatial context into the predictive modeling process. We demonstrate the utility of the algorithm through two primary use cases: building use type classification and building height prediction. The algorithm consistently achieved or exceeded a 0.94 macro average F1 score across five geographically distinct countries for building use type classification. For building height prediction, it accurately predicted heights with a root mean square error of 3.01 in a comprehensive study using roughly 3.6 million buildings in Japan. These results underscore the benefits of integrating spatial hierarchies into machine learning models, enhancing both predictive accuracy and reliability in geospatial modeling. This work introduces a new algorithm to address the pervasive data sparsity issue in existing building stock datasets.

Adams, Daniel [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000196950577)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development of a Annual Air Handling Unit Fault Dataset for FDD Tools: Lessons Learned and Considerations for FDD Developers

As energy management and information systems (e.g., automated fault detection and diagnostics [AFDD] tools) become more prevalent in the commercial building stock, it is important to determine the effectiveness of these technologies by benchmarking their performance. The authors have been working to develop the largest publicly available dataset of HVAC fault data for performance benchmarking applications, covering the most common HVAC systems and designs including chiller plants, rooftop packaged units, dual duct air handling units and single duct air handling units. This study covers the development, modeling, and validation of a synthetic fault dataset for a single duct air handling unit (AHU), one of the most common HVAC configurations found in the commercial building stock. Despite this being a common system, real-world time series data are scarce and usually do not span a wide range of weather conditions. Due to this limitation, a detailed AHU model was employed to carry out annual simulations of numerous common sensor and mechanical faults, which were then validated by comparing their effects on system performance to expected symptoms. We summarize the nature of each fault and their impacts under different weather and operation conditions. Finally, we highlight considerations for FDD developers that may want to use this dataset to assess their algorithms’ performance and their improvement over time.

Casillas, Armando↗
DOE OSTI2025

A machine learning method of modern urban building energy modeling: A case study of Chicago

Urban-scale building energy modeling is vital for urban planning. However, it can be challenging to assimilate reliable non-geometry building data for urban-scale modeling without extensive investment. Here, this study introduces a novel approach to developing modern urban-scale building energy stock data using geographic information systems and machine learning algorithms without necessarily requiring pre-supplied non-geometric metadata. The proposed framework integrates building footprint and height data to estimate gross floor areas, and matches each building to a pool of candidate records from ComStock or ResStock—filtered to the same county and ranked by geometric similarity—demonstrate a proof-of-concept case study in Chicago for predicting energy use intensity (EUI) using scalable datasets. The model achieved a mean bias error (MBE) of 0.08 kWh/m² and root mean square error (RMSE) of 14.84 kWh/m² under full metadata input for EUI prediction. With only location inputs, the model captured 69.2 % of EUI within predicted ranges. These results demonstrate the model’s potential to support early-stage urban planning, identify candidates for energy-efficient retrofits. By removing the dependency on detailed pre-surveys or extensive building metadata, the approach overcomes a key barrier in traditional urban-scale building energy modeling, illustrating a pathway toward broader and more cost-effective application, though further multi-city validation and improved treatment of pre-1925 buildings are needed.

Energy Use Intensity↗
DOE OSTI2024

End-Use Savings Shapes Measure Documentation: Advanced Rooftop Unit Control

This technical report documents the Advanced Rooftop Unit Control End Use Savings Shapes (EUSS) measure, including providing a description of the technology, modeling methods, and the energy savings calculated from applying the measure to applicable across the US commercial building stock using ComStock to quantify its potential. Advanced rooftop unit controls (ARC) generally consist of a supply fan VFD, and controls to implement demand controlled ventilation (DCV) and air-side economizing, as a retrofit to improve energy efficiency of existing rooftop units (RTUs).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

ResStock Dataset 2024.1 Documentation

Public ResStock datasets provide credible, relevant, and accessible information on energy use and related non-energy metrics to a variety of stakeholders in the residential buildings space. The current public datasets include baseline building characteristics, timeseries (15-minute) energy consumption, and timeseries carbon emissions for the baseline (existing) U.S. housing stock and the U.S. housing stock with 10 "what-if" energy measure packages applied. This report documents a new public ResStock dataset to complement and build upon the existing public datasets. This dataset is specifically intended to be a resource for state and local decision-makers considering options for energy retrofits for their housing stock to reduce carbon emissions, energy use, and/or utility bills. These data consist of housing stock characteristics and modeled full-year energy consumption, carbon emission, energy bill, and energy burden data for the baseline U.S. housing stock as well as the U.S. housing stock with 260 "what-if" energy measure packages applied. These measure packages include measures related to the building envelope, appliances, pools and spas, lighting, water heating, and HVAC (including efficiency improvements and fuel switching with equipment at a range of performance levels) in a variety of combinations. This report provides methodology information on the generation of this dataset and serves as a key part of the dataset's public documentation.

buildings↗
DOE OSTI2026

ComStock Measure Documentation: Interior Lighting Controls

Building on the 3-year End-Use Load Profiles project to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy’s ResStock™ and ComStock™ models, this work produces national datasets that enable cities, states, utilities, and other stakeholders to answer a broad range of questions regarding their commercial building stock.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Building Business Network (B-Biz): Addressing Gaps in the High-Performance Building Technology Market, Especially for Underserved Customers

Increased market intelligence and business model innovation is needed to build contractor confidence in high-performance building technologies in order to increase the speed and scale of adoption to meet the U.S. Department of Energy's building stock decarbonization goals. Although there have been important innovations in energy efficiency, affordability, and decarbonization of building technologies, consumers are not purchasing these technologies at the necessary speed and scale partially due to a gap in institutional understanding around barriers contractors face in providing and servicing these technologies. Small businesses in this market must mitigate risk around high-performance building technologies, limiting their opportunities in the market and impacting the rate of adoption. The Building Business Network (B-Biz) aims to provide high-performance building technology solutions to underserved customers by collaborating with local small businesses that provide and service high-performance building technologies in communities with the lowest rates of adoption. This research explores the current market, the importance of business models, and the opportunity to utilize small businesses to address market gaps in underserved communities.

B-Biz↗
DOE OSTI2024

Lawrence, Massachusetts, Residential Building Efficiency and Electrification Analysis [Slides]

As part of the Communities Local Energy Action Program (CLEAP), the Lawrence Stakeholders Coalition (LSC) is interested in assessing and understanding the potential for and pathways to electrification for the City of Lawrence. The LSC's main questions are: What is the impact of various electrification packages on residential electricity bills and what types of buildings should the LSC target for electrification plus weatherization packages? This technical assistance, using ResStock tool modeling, aims to assist the Coalition's electrification and energy burden reduction planning by: 1. Providing cross-cutting data on housing stock characteristics, energy burden characteristics, fuel types, energy consumption, and system efficiency; and 2. Providing information on upgrade package costs, emissions reduction, and energy reductions by prioritized housing segment. The ResStock analysis presented here focuses on opportunities to reduce energy burden, energy consumption, and energy bills for single family homes, multifamily buildings, and mobile homes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

BuildingsBench: A Benchmark for Universal Building Load Forecasting [SWR-23-51]

The residential and commercial building stock in the United States is responsible for a significant percentage of energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Electrification of end-uses, as well as decarbonizing the electrical grid through renewable energy sources such as solar and wind, constitutes the pathway to zero-emission buildings. Forecasting day-ahead building energy consumption is an integral part of this solution. Currently, specialized forecasting models are hand-made for each individual building, which is time-consuming, expensive, and leads to duplicated efforts. BuildingsBench is a Python software framework for training and comparing generalized machine learning models for universal building load forecasting. This challenge tasks a single foundational model to generalize its forecasts for a wide variety of buildings, across geographic regions, building types, weather patterns, and more. This software provide code for pre-training such models and subsequently evaluating their performance on a suite of hundreds of diverse real and synthetic buildings. BuildingsBench is a platform for: - Large-scale pretraining with the synthetic Buildings-900K dataset for short-term load forecasting (STLF). Buildings-900K is statistically representative of the entire U.S. building stock and is extracted from the NREL End-Use Load Profiles database. - Benchmarking on two tasks evaluating generalization: zero-shot STLF and transfer learning for STLF. We provide an index-based PyTorch Dataset for large-scale pretraining, easy data loading for multiple real building energy consumption datasets as PyTorch Tensors or Pandas DataFrames, simple (persistence) to advanced (transformer) baselines, metrics management, and more.

Emami, Patrick↗
DOE OSTI2025

Informing electrification strategies of residential neighborhoods with urban building energy modeling

Electrifying end uses is a key strategy to reducing GHG emissions in buildings. However, it may increase peak electricity demand that triggers the need to upgrade the existing power distribution system, leading to delays in electrification and needs of significant investment. There is also concern that building electrification may cause an increase of energy costs, leading to further energy burden for low-income communities. This study uses the urban scale building modeling tool CityBES to assess the electrification impacts of more than 43,000 residential buildings in a neighborhood of Portland, Oregon, USA. Energy efficiency upgrades were investigated on their potential to mitigate the increase of peak electricity demand and energy burden. Simulation results from the calibrated EnergyPlus models show that electrification with heat pumps for space heating and cooling as well as for domestic water heating can reduce CO2e emissions by 38%, but increase peak electricity demand by about 9% from the baseline building stock. Combining electrification measures and energy efficiency upgrades can reduce CO2e emissions by 48% while reducing peak electricity demand by 6% and saving the median household energy costs by 28%. City and utility decision makers should consider integrating energy efficiency upgrades with electrification measures as an effective residential building electrification strategy, which significantly reduces carbon emissions, caps or even decreases peak demand while reducing energy burden of residents.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗