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At least 127 records · Page 7

Towards a self-consistent analysis of the anisotropic galaxy two- and three-point correlation functions on large scales: application to mock galaxy catalogues

We establish a practical method for the joint analysis of anisotropic galaxy two- and three-point correlation functions (2PCF and 3PCF, respectively) on the basis of the decomposition formalism of the 3PCF using tripolar spherical harmonics. We perform such an analysis with MultiDark-Patchy mock catalogues to demonstrate and understand the benefit of the anisotropic 3PCF. We focus on scales above $80\, h^{-1}\, {\rm Mpc}$, and use information from the shape and the baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) signals of the 2PCF and 3PCF. We also apply density field reconstruction to increase the signal-to-noise ratio of BAO in the 2PCF measurement, but not in the 3PCF measurement. In particular, we study in detail the constraints on the angular diameter distance and the Hubble parameter. We build a model of the bispectrum or 3PCF that includes the non-linear damping of the BAO signal in redshift space. We carefully account for various uncertainties in our analysis including theoretical models of the 3PCF, window function corrections, biases in estimated parameters from the fiducial values, the number of mock realizations to estimate the covariance matrix, and bin size. The joint analysis of the 2PCF and 3PCF monopole and quadrupole components shows a $30{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ and $20{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ improvement in Hubble parameter constraints before and after reconstruction of the 2PCF measurements, respectively, compared to the 2PCF analysis alone. Furthermore, this study clearly shows that the anisotropic 3PCF increases cosmological information from galaxy surveys and encourages further development of the modelling of the 3PCF on smaller scales than we consider.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Concerning colour: The effect of environment on type Ia supernova colour in the dark energy survey

ABSTRACT Recent analyses have found intriguing correlations between the colour (c) of type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) and the size of their ‘mass-step’, the relationship between SN Ia host galaxy stellar mass (Mstellar) and SN Ia Hubble residual, and suggest that the cause of this relationship is dust. Using 675 photometrically classified SNe Ia from the Dark Energy Survey 5-yr sample, we study the differences in Hubble residual for a variety of global host galaxy and local environmental properties for SN Ia subsamples split by their colour. We find a 3σ difference in the mass-step when comparing blue (c < 0) and red (c > 0) SNe. We observe the lowest r.m.s. scatter (∼0.14 mag) in the Hubble residual for blue SNe in low mass/blue environments, suggesting that this is the most homogeneous sample for cosmological analyses. By fitting for c-dependent relationships between Hubble residuals and Mstellar, approximating existing dust models, we remove the mass-step from the data and find tentative ∼2σ residual steps in rest-frame galaxy U − R colour. This indicates that dust modelling based on Mstellar may not fully explain the remaining dispersion in SN Ia luminosity. Instead, accounting for a c-dependent relationship between Hubble residuals and global U − R, results in ≤1σ residual steps in Mstellar and local U − R, suggesting that U − R provides different information about the environment of SNe Ia compared to Mstellar, and motivating the inclusion of galaxy U − R colour in SN Ia distance bias correction.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Integrated Modeling Driven Evaluation of Opportunities for Climate‐Resilient Perennial Biomass Crop Plantings in Flood‐Prone Agricultural Landscapes

Adapting to future climate change in flood-prone landscapes will require climate-resilient agricultural systems. Planting perennial crops, like switchgrass and willow, along river corridors can mitigate future flooding while supporting bioenergy markets. We developed an integrated assessment linking climate, hydrologic, and inundation model results to assess future flood risk to river-adjacent agricultural lands in the Mid-Atlantic Region (MAR) and explore this opportunity. We produced ensemble streamflow projections for every MAR stream using a hydrologic model driven by a suite of downscaled and bias-corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 climate projections. We then conducted high-resolution inundation mapping based on projected flood frequencies for baseline and future periods. Results show that in the near-term future, at least two-thirds of the streams will experience 100-year floods more severe than the baseline 200-year floods. Riparian zones are projected to face a median rise of inundation by 9.5%–24.1%. Results show that there is an opportunity to mitigate flooding in over half of MAR's counties with the quantities of switchgrass and willow plantings anticipated for mature bioenergy markets, even under the most extreme (200-year) flood events. Our integrated modeling framework can guide similar regions to evaluate opportunities for flood-resilient agricultural systems under climate change.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A Review of Recent and Emerging Machine Learning Applications for Climate Variability and Weather Phenomena

Abstract Climate variability and weather phenomena can cause extremes and pose significant risk to society and ecosystems, making continued advances in our physical understanding of such events of utmost importance for regional and global security. Advances in machine learning (ML) have been leveraged for applications in climate variability and weather, empowering scientists to approach questions using big data in new ways. Growing interest across the scientific community in these areas has motivated coordination between the physical and computer science disciplines to further advance the state of the science and tackle pressing challenges. During a recently held workshop that had participants across academia, private industry, and research laboratories, it became clear that a comprehensive review of recent and emerging ML applications for climate variability and weather phenomena that can cause extremes was needed. This article aims to fulfill this need by discussing recent advances, challenges, and research priorities in the following topics: sources of predictability for modes of climate variability, feature detection, extreme weather and climate prediction and precursors, observation–model integration, downscaling, and bias correction. This article provides a review for domain scientists seeking to incorporate ML into their research. It also provides a review for those with some ML experience seeking to broaden their knowledge of ML applications for climate variability and weather.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Hazard Using Engineered-Synthetic Storms and a Physics-Based Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Model

In this study, we design a statistical method to couple observations with a physics-based tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall model (TCR) and engineered-synthetic storms for assessing TC rainfall hazard. We first propose a bias-correction method to minimize the errors induced by TCR via matching the probability distribution of TCR-simulated historical TC rainfall with gauge observations. Then we assign occurrence probabilities to engineered-synthetic storms to reflect local climatology, through a resampling method that matches the probability distribution of a newly proposed storm parameter named rainfall potential (POT) in the synthetic dataset with that in the observation. POT is constructed to include several important storm parameters for TC rainfall such as TC intensity, duration, and distance and environmental humidity near landfall, and it is shown to be correlated with TCR-simulated rainfall. The proposed method has a satisfactory performance in reproducing the rainfall hazard curve in various locations in the continental United States; it is an improvement over the traditional joint probability method (JPM) for TC rainfall hazard assessment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantification of the Radiative Effect of Aerosol–Cloud Interactions in Shallow Continental Cumulus Clouds

The indirect radiative effect of aerosol variability on shallow cumulus clouds is realized in nature with considerable concurrent meteorological variability. Large-eddy simulations constrained by observations at a continental site in Oklahoma are performed to represent the variability of different meteorological states on days with different aerosol conditions. The total radiative effect of this natural covariation between aerosol and other meteorological drivers of total cloud amount and albedo is quantified. The changes to these bulk quantities are used to understand the response of the cloud radiative effect to aerosol–cloud interactions (ACI) in the context of concurrent processes, as opposed to attempting to untangle the effect of individual processes on a case-by-case basis. Mutual information (MI) analysis suggests that meteorological variability masks the strength of the relationship between cloud drop number concentration and the cloud radiative effect. This is shown to be mostly due to variation in solar zenith angle and cloud field horizontal heterogeneity masking the relationship between cloud drop number and cloud albedo. By combining MI and more traditional differential analyses, a framework to identify important modes of covariation between aerosol, clouds, and meteorological conditions is developed. This shows that accounting for solar zenith angle variation and implementing an albedo bias correction increases the detectability of the radiative effects of ACI in simulations of shallow cumulus.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Bimodal Diagnostic Cloud Fraction Parameterization. Part II: Evaluation and Resolution Sensitivity

A wide range of approaches exists to account for subgrid cloud variability in regional simulations of the atmosphere. This paper addresses the following questions: 1) Is there still benefit in representing subgrid variability of cloud in convection-permitting simulations? 2) What is the sensitivity to the cloud fraction parameterization complexity? 3) Are current cloud fraction parameterizations scale-aware across convection-permitting resolutions? These questions are addressed for regional simulations of a 6-week observation campaign in the U.S. southern Great Plains. Particular attention is given to a new diagnostic cloud fraction scheme with a bimodal subgrid saturation-departure PDF, described in Part I. The model evaluation is performed using ground-based remote sensing synergies, satellite-based retrievals, and surface observations. It is shown that not using a cloud fraction parameterization results in underestimated cloud frequency and water content, even for stratocumulus. The use of a cloud fraction parameterization does not guarantee improved cloud property simulations, however. Diagnostic and prognostic cloud schemes with a symmetric subgrid saturation-departure PDF underestimate cloud fraction and cloud optical thickness, and hence overestimate surface shortwave radiation. These schemes require empirical bias-correction techniques to improve the cloud cover. The new cloud fraction parameterization, introduced in Part I, improves cloud cover, liquid water content, cloud-base height, optical thickness, and surface radiation compared to schemes reliant on a symmetric PDF. Furthermore, cloud parameterizations using turbulence-based, rather than prescribed constant subgrid variances, are shown to be more scale-aware across convection-permitting resolutions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluating Ensemble Predictions of South Asian Monsoon Low Pressure System Genesis

Abstract Synoptic-scale vortices known as monsoon low pressure systems (LPSs) frequently produce intense precipitation and hydrological disasters in South Asia, so accurately forecasting LPS genesis is crucial for improving disaster preparedness and response. However, the accuracy of LPS genesis forecasts by numerical weather prediction models has remained unknown. Here, we evaluate the performance of two global ensemble models—the U.S. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and the Ensemble Prediction System of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)—in predicting LPS genesis during the years 2021–22. The GEFS successfully predicted about half the observed LPS genesis events 1–2 days in advance; the ECMWF model captured an additional 10% of observed genesis events. Both models had a false alarm ratio (FAR) of around 50% for 1–2-day lead times. In both ensembles, the control run typically exhibited a higher probability of detection (POD) of observed events and a lower FAR compared to the perturbed ensemble members. However, a consensus forecast, in which genesis is predicted when at least 20% of ensemble members forecast LPS formation, had POD values surpassing those of the control run for all lead times. Moreover, probabilistic predictions of genesis over the Bay of Bengal, where most LPSs form, were skillful, with the fraction of ensemble members predicting LPS formation over a 5-day lead time approximating the observed frequency of genesis, without any adjustment or bias correction.

Suhas, D. L.↗

Smoothing Lexis diagrams using kernel functions: A contemporary approach

Lexis diagrams are rectangular arrays of event rates indexed by age and period. Analysis of Lexis diagrams is a cornerstone of cancer surveillance research. Typically, population-based descriptive studies analyze multiple Lexis diagrams defined by sex, tumor characteristics, race/ethnicity, geographic region, etc. Inevitably the amount of information per Lexis diminishes with increasing stratification. Several methods have been proposed to smooth observed Lexis diagrams up front to clarify salient patterns and improve summary estimates of averages, gradients, and trends. In this article, we develop a novel bivariate kernel-based smoother that incorporates two key innovations. First, for any given kernel, we calculate its singular values decomposition, and select an optimal truncation point—the number of leading singular vectors to retain—based on the bias-corrected Akaike information criterion. Second, we model-average over a panel of candidate kernels with diverse shapes and bandwidths. The truncated model averaging approach is fast, automatic, has excellent performance, and provides a variance-covariance matrix that takes model selection into account. We present an in-depth case study (invasive estrogen receptor-negative breast cancer incidence among non-Hispanic white women in the United States) and simulate operating characteristics for 20 representative cancers. The truncated model averaging approach consistently outperforms any fixed kernel. Our results support the routine use of the truncated model averaging approach in descriptive studies of cancer.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Artificial Intelligence-Enhanced CMIP6 Climate Projections Across the Conterminous United States

This dataset comprises high-resolution climate projections at 1/24 degree grid (~4km) over the conterminous United States (CONUS) based on ten Global Climate Models (GCMs) that are part of the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). The CMIP6 GCMs are downscaled using two artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, primarily based on the computer vision approach called super-resolution. We train two separate networks: super-resolution convolutional neural network (SRCNN) and super-resolution generative adversarial network (SRGAN). The networks are trained using Daymet observations, originally available at a 1 km resolution. For training purposes, the Daymet data is interpolated to 1/24 degree (~4km), 0.25 degree and 1 degree, which serve as high, intermediate and low-resolution inputs respectively. For each of the SRCNN and SRGAN network, we use a two-step resolution enhancement, the first step generates 4x refinement from 1 degree to 0.25 degree and the second step generates 6x refinement from 0.25 degree to 1/24 degree (~4km). We downscale daily scale precipitation, maximum temperature and minimum temperature for the six CMIP6 GCMs for 1980 to 2019 in the historical period and 2020 to 2059 in the near-term future under the shared socioeconomic pathway 585 and 245 (SSP585 and SSP245) emission scenarios. We also perform double bias-correction with Daymet observations using a quantile mapping approach, first for GCMs prior to making predictions at 1 degree grid and second after making final predictions at ~4km.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Parallel simulated annealing with embedded machine learning and multifidelity models for reactor core design

This paper presents extensions to a penalty-free, parallel simulated annealing (SA) algorithm for multi-constrained combinatorial optimization with the aim of embedding multi-fidelity physics models into the annealing procedure. The method uses a low-fidelity, quickly executing model for rapid design space exploration and a high-fidelity model for detailed constraint resolution and on-the-fly bias correction. Machine learning models updated within the annealing procedure were used to bridge the gap between the multi-fidelity models, which led to accurate rapid exploration and efficient detailed constraint resolution. A software implementation of the new multi-fidelity optimization methods, called ML-PSA, was demonstrated on a continuous multi-fidelity optimization problem and a constrained combinatorial PWR lattice design problem. These problems demonstrate some of the features, parallel performance characteristics, and extensible nature of the multi-fidelity SA methods. This paper shows that the developed software and procedure are a general optimization tool that can be applied to a wide variety of scientific and engineering design optimization applications. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Data used for Figure 3 of the Nature Reviews Earth and Environment (NREE) paper: "A low-to-no snow future and its impacts on water resources in the western United States

In order to synthesize western United States snowpack projections, this dataset contains the results of 18 peer-review journal articles over three periods of interest (2025-2049, 2050-2074, and 2075-2099) and over 4 mountain ranges (Cascades, Sierra Nevada, Rockies, Wasatch/Uinta) in addition to western-US wide projections. Distinction is made by model type (Earth System Models, bias-corrected statistically downscaled Earth System Models, and regional climate models). RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios are considered. Percent snow water equivalent (SWE) loss considers 1 April, peak SWE and/or seasonal SWE. Heterogeneity in projected snowpack changes exists across mountain ranges and for different modeling approaches, but generally indicate agreement in decreases by the end of the century.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Monthly averages of ED2 model simulations initialized with airborne lidar structure, Jan 1981-Dec 2018, Brazilian Amazon

Deforestation and forest degradation (selective logging, fires, fragmentation) have impacted nearly 40% of the original extent of the Brazilian Amazon, and have markedly impacted forest structure across the region. To date, few studies analysed how shifts in forest structure from degradation influence the forest sensitivity to climate extremes, because of the complex interactions between forest structure and micro-environmental conditions. To address this knowledge gap, we carried out a series of simulations across the Brazilian Amazon using the Ecosystem Demography Model (ED2), using observed forest structure derived from 541 airborne lidar transects (375 ha each) and two scenarios representing forest recovery and expansion of degradation to investigate how shifts in forest structure impact ecosystem function under near-average and extreme climate conditions, as part of the manuscript Longo et al 2025 "Degradation and Deforestation Increase the Sensitivity of the Amazon Forest to Climate Extremes". This dataset provides the output results from the ED2 model simulations for the three simulations at monthly time scales, in NetCDF format. For all simulations, we used bias-corrected hourly reanalyses (WFDE5) for most meteorological drivers, except for precipitation, which was obtained from CHIRPS. The meteorological drivers used in the study span 38 years (Jan 1981–Dec 2018). The output results correspond to the last 38 years of simulation (one full cycle of meteorological drivers), in which ED2 simulations used static stand structure (i.e., the forest structure was held constant). The following files are provided:ED2_emean_Global_R004_BrAmaz_s1c0t0l0f0.nc. This corresponds to the Control simulation. The forest structure was obtained from the airborne lidar.ED2_emean_Global_R005_BrAmaz_s1c0t1l1f0.nc. This corresponds to the Degraded simulation. The forest structure was obtained from a spin-up simulation initialized with airborne lidar and a scenario that expanded deforestation and selective logging across the Amazon.ED2_emean_Global_R006_BrAmaz_s1c0t1l0f0.nc. This corresponds to the Recovery simulation. The forest structure was obtained from a spin-up simulation initialized with airborne lidar and a scenario that completely halted deforestation and degradation, allowing degraded forests to recover for 38 years.We also provide file ED2_zones_R004_BrAmaz_s1c0t0l0f0.nc, which classifies each grid cell into zones used in the reference manuscript: 1: Southeast. 2: South. 3: West. 4: Central. 5: Northeast. 6: North. 7: Northwest". Index 0 corresponds to grid cells excluded from sub-region analyses because they were dominated by flooded forests, deforestation, and naturally non-forest vegetation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Pantropical Tree Sapwood Hydraulic Properties, 1991 - 2014

This data package contains sapwood pressure-volume parameters including osmotic potential at full turgot, turgor loss point, bulk elastic modulus, and others, determined by curve fitting to raw isotherm data (paired measurements of water content and water potential). Raw data were digitized from published figures. Data are from natural tropical and subtropical forests or savannas and span rainfall gradients from deciduous dry tropical forests to everwet tropical forests, and come from the following countries: Argentina, Panama, Brazil, Costa Rica, and Madagascar. Included in the attached zip file are four CSV files. sapwood_PV_recal_headers.csv: description of variables in the two files below sapwood_PV_recal_corrected.csv: bias-corrected sapwood PV data (see Methods in the associated reference) sapwood_PV_recal_uncorrected.csv: uncorrected sapwood PV data (see Methods in the associated reference) sapwood_PV_references.csv: citation, bibliographic reference, and DOI for the published references from which data were extracted.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Characterization of Extremes and Compound Impacts: Applications of Machine Learning and Interpretable Neural Networks

Focal Area: This white paper responds to Focal area III by exploring data fusion, learning and explainable AI methods in characterizing hydrological extremes and interconnections. It also addresses Focal area II by using probabilistic AI and ensemble ML for predicting extremes and compound extremes. Science Challenge: A key question associated with the integrated water (or hydrological) cycle grand challenge in the Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division (EESSD) strategic plan, is how the frequency and intensity of hydrological events will change. Prediction of the tail behavior (extremes) of the hydrological cycle is especially challenging, because of their stochasticity and low probability. These extreme events and their compound impacts have significant societal and economic consequences. It is anticipated for the next-generation Earth System models (ESMs), that model predictability of the water cycle will improve with increased resolution (e.g., regionally refined E3SM), advanced software and computational architectures, and improved model physics based on the data from ARM measurements and high-fidelity models. However, the challenges for predictability of low-probability high-impact extreme events will unlikely be alleviated with conventional modeling and data-driven approaches, as ESMs are calibrated largely for capturing the high-frequency mean climate states. Recent AI and ML applications have shown great potential in quantifying well-defined climate extremes (e.g., supervised learning of tropical cyclones/atmospheric rivers by ClimateNet1) but few efforts are dedicated to compound events, extreme drivers and uncertainty estimation. We envision the opportunity to develop and apply ML and interpretable AI methods extended on the existing efforts, specifically, for: (1) identification of compound extremes, (2) diagnosing drivers of extremes, (3) bias correction in extreme predictions and (4) probabilistic modeling of extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Glass Property-Composition Models for Support of Hanford WTP LAW Facility Operation

Current plans for the River Protection Project envision starting to vitrifying low-activity waste (LAW) by 2023 using a Direct Feed Low-Activity Waste (DFLAW) approach and subsequently using a full-pretreatment approach. The Hanford Tank Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) LAW Facility will be operated and controlled using a LAW glass formulation algorithm (GFA), which requires several inputs based on research and development results. LAW glass property-composition models for several product quality and processing properties are key inputs for the LAW GFA. It is envisioned that the preliminary LAW GFA discussed by Kim and Vienna (2012) will be used for commissioning and initial radioactive operations of the WTP LAW Facility under Bechtel National, Inc. using the DFLAW approach. Then, an updated LAW GFA will be developed for implementation by the WTP operating contractor that takes over after WTP LAW Facility commissioning. This report documents the enhanced LAW glass property-composition models developed for use in the updated LAW GFA. The properties for which models were developed include Product Consistency Test (PCT) response, Vapor Hydration Test (VHT) response, viscosity at 1150 °C, electrical conductivity at 1150 °C, melter SO 3 tolerance at 1150 °C, and K-3 refractory corrosion at 1208 °C. Table S.1 lists the tables in this report that contain the recommended models for each of these properties. The model types recommended include partial quadratic mixture (PQM) models for viscosity, electrical conductivity, melter SO 3 tolerance and K-3 corrosion, bias corrected PQM model (bcPQM) for PCT, and logistic PQM model for VHT. The fits of model and validation subsets were found to be well predicted by the recommended models.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Glass Property-Composition Models for Support of Hanford WTP LAW Facility Operation

Current plans for the River Protection Project envision starting to vitrifying low-activity waste (LAW) by 2023 using a Direct Feed Low-Activity Waste (DFLAW) approach and subsequently using a full-pretreatment approach. The Hanford Tank Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) LAW Facility will be operated and controlled using a LAW glass formulation algorithm (GFA), which requires several inputs based on research and development results. LAW glass property-composition models for several product quality and processing properties are key inputs for the LAW GFA. It is envisioned that the preliminary LAW GFA discussed by Kim and Vienna (2012) will be used for commissioning and initial radioactive operations of the WTP LAW Facility under Bechtel National, Inc. using the DFLAW approach. Then, an updated LAW GFA will be developed for implementation by the WTP operating contractor that takes over after WTP LAW Facility commissioning. This report documents the enhanced LAW glass property-composition models developed for use in the updated LAW GFA. The properties for which models were developed include Product Consistency Test (PCT) response, Vapor Hydration Test (VHT) response, viscosity at 1150 °C, electrical conductivity at 1150 °C, melter SO3 tolerance at 1150 °C, and K-3 refractory corrosion at 1208 °C. Table S.1 lists the tables in this report that contain the recommended models for each of these properties. The model types recommended include partial quadratic mixture (PQM) models for viscosity, electrical conductivity, melter SO 3 tolerance and K-3 corrosion, bias corrected PQM model (bcPQM) for PCT, and logistic PQM model for VHT. The fits of model and validation subsets were found to be well predicted by the recommended models.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Downscaled Earth System Model Data for Resilient Energy System Planning

The second-generation Sup3rCC dataset provides high-resolution meteorological data generated through the downscaling of multiple earth system models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). This downscaling is performed through application of a generative machine learning approach called Super-Resolution for Renewable Resource Data (sup3r). This dataset builds on the first-generation Sup3rCC data by applying improved bias correction methods and adding downscaled precipitation to the output variables. In this presentation, we explore the output characteristics of the dataset and various validation analyses. We also present and discuss plans for the integration of this data into power system planning models using a decision-making under deep uncertainty (DMDU) methodology.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗