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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1994

Communication Research in Aviation and Space Operations: Symptoms and Strategies of Crew Coordination

The day-to-day operators of today's aerospace systems work under increasing pressures to accomplish more with less. They work in operational systems which are complex, technology-based, and high-risk; in which incidents and accidents have far-reaching and costly consequences. For these and other reasons, there is concern that the safety net formerly built upon redundant systems and abundant resources may become overburdened. Although we know that human ingenuity can overcome incredible odds, human nature can also fail in unpredictable ways. Over the last 20 years, a large percentage of aviation accidents and incidents have been attributed to human errors rather than hardware or environmental factors alone. A class of errors have been identified which are not due to a lack of individual, technical competencies. Rather, they are due to the failure of teams to utilize readily available resources or information in a timely fashion. These insights began a training revolution in the aviation industry called Cockpit Resource Management, which later became known as Crew Resource Management (CRM) as its concepts and applications extended to teams beyond the flightdeck. Then, as now, communication has been a cornerstone in CRM training since crew coordination and resource management largely resides within information transfer processes--both within flightcrews, and between flightcrews and the ground operations teams that support them. The research I will describe takes its roots in CRM history as we began to study communication processes in order to discover symptoms of crew coordination problems, as well as strategies of effective crew management. On the one hand, communication is often the means or the tool by which team members manage their resources, solve problems, maintain situational awareness and procedural discipline. Conversely, it is the lack of planning and resource management, loss of vigilance and situational awareness, and non-standard communications that are implicated in accidents and incidents. NASA/Ames Crew Factors researchers have been developing a model of effective crew coordination in order to understand the sources of performance breakdowns, and to develop effective solutions and interventions. Because communication is a primary mechanism by which information is received and transmitted, and because it is observable behavior, we focus on these group processes in order to identify patterns of communication that distinguish effective from less effective crew performance. Since a prime objective is to develop training recommendations for enhancing communication skills, we interpret our findings in the context of relevant task and environmental conditions, role and procedural constraints, and the normal real-time parameters of flight operations. Another research objective is to consider how communication and coordination can be enhanced through design. For example, flight deck and hardware design as well as procedural and software design may greatly influence the efficiency with which crews communicate and coordinate their work. In addition, teams and tasks may be designed, organized, and trained so that team interactions with each other are based upon appropriately shared knowledge, procedures and situation awareness. In short, we are interested in enhancing communication practices through (1) the training of specific communication skills, and (2) the design of equipment, tasks, procedures, and teams that optimize smooth, unambiguous communication processes. Two examples of communication research will be described; one in aviation and one in space operations. The first example is a high-fidelity full mission simulation study which investigates the affect of flightdeck automation on crew coordination and communication (contrasting crew performance in the DC-9 vs. MD88). Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Kanki, Barbara G.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Architecting a Simulation Framework for Model Rehosting

The utility of vehicle math models extends beyond human-in-the-loop simulation. It is desirable to deploy a given model across a multitude of applications that target design, analysis, and research. However, the vehicle model alone represents an incomplete simulation. One must also replicate the environment models (e.g., atmosphere, gravity, terrain) to achieve identical vehicle behavior across all applications. Environment models are increasing in complexity and represent a substantial investment to re-engineer for a new application. A software component that can be rehosted in each application is one solution to the deployment problem. The component must encapsulate both the vehicle and environment models. The component must have a well-defined interface that abstracts the bulk of the logic to operate the models. This paper examines the characteristics of a rehostable modeling component from the perspective of a human-in-the-loop simulation framework. The Langley Standard Real-Time Simulation in C++ (LaSRS++) is used as an example. LaSRS++ was recently redesigned to transform its modeling package into a rehostable component.

Madden, Michael M.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Cosmology with the Roman Space Telescope - Multiprobe Strategies

We simulate the scientific performance of the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope High Latitude Survey (HLS) on dark energy and modified gravity. The 1.6-yr HLS Reference survey is currently envisioned to image 2000 deg2 in multiple bands to a depthof∼26.5 in Y, J, H and to cover the same area with slit-less spectroscopy beyond z=3. The combination of deep, multiband photometry and deep spectroscopy will allow scientists to measure the growth and geometry of the Universe through a variety of cosmological probes (e.g. weak lensing, galaxy clusters, galaxy clustering, BAO, Type Ia supernova) and, equally, it will allow an exquisite control of observational and astrophysical systematic effects. In this paper, we explore multiprobe strategies that can be implemented, given the telescope’s instrument capabilities. We model cosmological probes individually and jointly and account for correlated systematics and statistical uncertainties due to the higher order moments of the density field. We explore different levels of observational systematics for the HLS survey (photo-z and shear calibration) and ultimately run a joint likelihood analysis in N-dim parameter space. We find that the HLS reference survey alone can achieve a standard dark energy FoM of>300 when including all probes. This assumes no information from external data sets, we assume a flat universe however, and includes realistic assumptions for systematics. Our study of the HLS reference survey should be seen as part of a future community-driven effort to simulate and optimize the science return of the Roman Space Telescope.

Cosmological parameters↗
NASA NTRS1985

Stellar evolution at high mass with convective core overshooting

The transition from stellar evolution models with no convective core overshooting (CCO) at all to models in which homogeneous mixing due to CCO reaches far beyond the formal convective core boundary is systematically explored. Overshooting is parameterized in terms of the ratio d/H(p), where d is the distance of convective overshoot beyond the formal convective core boundary and H(p) is the local pressure scale height. It is concluded that CCO in very massive main sequence stars produces a great expansion of the stellar envelope if d/H(p) is large but not excessively large. CCO does not entirely suppress convective instability above the overshoot zone in the envelopes of main sequence stars more massive than about 15 solar masses. A general comparison of theoretically constructed isochrones for young stars with observed main sequence turnups indicates that the observed turnups are longer, brighter, and cooler at the tip than those expected on thfe basis of standard evolutionary theory.

Stothers, R. B.↗
NASA NTRS2007

The Width of a Solar Coronal Mass Ejection and the Source of the Driving Magnetic Explosion: A Test of the Standard Scenario for CME Production

We show that the strength (B(sub F1are)) of the magnetic field in the area covered by the flare arcade following a CME-producing ejective solar eruption can be estimated from the final angular width (Final Theta(sub CME)) of the CME in the outer corona and the final angular width (Theta(sub Flare)) of the flare arcade: B(sub Flare) approx. equals 1.4[(Final Theta(sub CME)/Theta(sub Flare)] (exp 2)G. We assume (1) the flux-rope plasmoid ejected from the flare site becomes the interior of the CME plasmoid; (2) in the outer corona (R > 2 (solar radius)) the CME is roughly a "spherical plasmoid with legs" shaped like a lightbulb; and (3) beyond some height in or below the outer corona the CME plasmoid is in lateral pressure balance with the surrounding magnetic field. The strength of the nearly radial magnetic field in the outer corona is estimated from the radial component of the interplanetary magnetic field measured by Ulysses. We apply this model to three well-observed CMEs that exploded from flare regions of extremely different size and magnetic setting. One of these CMEs was an over-and-out CME, that is, in the outer corona the CME was laterally far offset from the flare-marked source of the driving magnetic explosion. In each event, the estimated source-region field strength is appropriate for the magnetic setting of the flare. This agreement (1) indicates that CMEs are propelled by the magnetic field of the CME plasmoid pushing against the surrounding magnetic field; (2) supports the magnetic-arch-blowout scenario for over-and-out CMEs; and (3) shows that a CME's final angular width in the outer corona can be estimated from the amount of magnetic flux covered by the source-region flare arcade.

Moore, Ronald L.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Assessment of the Orion-SLS Interface Management Process in Achieving the EIA 731.1 Systems Engineering Capability Model Generic Practices Level 3 Criteria

NASA is currently developing the next generation crewed spacecraft and launch vehicle for exploration beyond earth orbit including returning to the Moon and making the transit to Mars. Managing the design integration of major hardware elements of a space transportation system is critical for overcoming both the technical and programmatic challenges in taking a complex system from concept to space operations. An established method of accomplishing this is formal interface management. In this paper we set forth an argument that the interface management process implemented by NASA between the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) and the Space Launch System (SLS) achieves the Level 3 tier of the EIA 731.1 System Engineering Capability Model (SECM) for Generic Practices. We describe the relevant NASA systems and associated organizations, and define the EIA SECM Level 3 Generic Practices. We then provide evidence for our compliance with those practices. This evidence includes discussions of: NASA Systems Engineering Interface (SE) Management standard process and best practices; the tailoring of that process for implementation on the Orion to SLS interface; changes made over time to improve the tailored process, and; the opportunities to take the resulting lessons learned and propose improvements to our institutional processes and best practices. We compare this evidence against the practices to form the rationale for the declared SECM maturity level.

Jellicorse, John J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Artemis 1 Radiation Modeling and Analysis Using Operational Methods

The successful completion of the Artemis 1 mission has provided NASA with a significant volume of space radiation dosimetry data that can be used to verify the accuracy of current operational SRAG dose computation models and methods for Beyond LEO missions. High-Fidelity CAD models of the Artemis 1 MPCV Orion were raytraced in 10,000 directions per sensor location, including the location of Artemis HERA sensors, Artemis RAMs (TLDs), and the crew active dosimetry (CADs). The full Artemis 1 mission was modelled using the as-flown trajectory, Ap9-Ae9 IRENE providing the VAB trapped proton and electron environment, and the Badhwar-O’Neill 2020 model providing the freespace GCR environment. IGRF 12 was used to compute cutoff rigidities for the GCR environment in LEO. 1DHZETRN was used to estimate point doses at each sensor position. Computed RAM doses were within 5% of measured values. The computed VAB transit and freespace GCR dose rates showed good qualitative agreement with measured HERA values. An estimate of normalized mean effective dose for a hypothetical male crew member on Artemis 1 using current standard operational methods was computed to be 22.3 mSv.

Artemis 1↗
NASA NTRS2017

Medical Optimization Network for Space Telemedicine Resources

INTRODUCTION: Long-duration missions beyond low Earth orbit introduce new constraints to the space medical system such as the inability to evacuate to Earth, communication delays, and limitations in clinical skillsets. NASA recognizes the need to improve capabilities for autonomous care on such missions. As the medical system is developed, it is important to have an ability to evaluate the trade space of what resources will be most important. The Medical Optimization Network for Space Telemedicine Resources was developed for this reason, and is now a system to gauge the relative importance of medical resources in addressing medical conditions. METHODS: A list of medical conditions of potential concern for an exploration mission was referenced from the Integrated Medical Model, a probabilistic model designed to quantify in-flight medical risk. The diagnostic and treatment modalities required to address best and worst-case scenarios of each medical condition, at the terrestrial standard of care, were entered into a database. This list included tangible assets (e.g. medications) and intangible assets (e.g. clinical skills to perform a procedure). A team of physicians working within the Exploration Medical Capability Element of NASA's Human Research Program ranked each of the items listed according to its criticality. Data was then obtained from the IMM for the probability of occurrence of the medical conditions, including a breakdown of best case and worst case, during a Mars reference mission. The probability of occurrence information and criticality for each resource were taken into account during analytics performed using Tableau software. RESULTS: A database and weighting system to evaluate all the diagnostic and treatment modalities was created by combining the probability of condition occurrence data with the criticalities assigned by the physician team. DISCUSSION: Exploration Medical Capabilities research at NASA is focused on providing a medical system to support crew medical needs in the context of a Mars mission. MONSTR is a novel approach to performing a quantitative risk analysis that will assess the relative value of individual resources needed for the diagnosis and treatment of various medical conditions. It will provide the operational and research communities at NASA with information to support informed decisions regarding areas of research investment, future crew training, and medical supplies manifested as part of the exploration medical system.

Shah, R. V.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Learning random networks for compression of still and moving images

Image compression for both still and moving images is an extremely important area of investigation, with numerous applications to videoconferencing, interactive education, home entertainment, and potential applications to earth observations, medical imaging, digital libraries, and many other areas. We describe work on a neural network methodology to compress/decompress still and moving images. We use the 'point-process' type neural network model which is closer to biophysical reality than standard models, and yet is mathematically much more tractable. We currently achieve compression ratios of the order of 120:1 for moving grey-level images, based on a combination of motion detection and compression. The observed signal-to-noise ratio varies from values above 25 to more than 35. The method is computationally fast so that compression and decompression can be carried out in real-time. It uses the adaptive capabilities of a set of neural networks so as to select varying compression ratios in real-time as a function of quality achieved. It also uses a motion detector which will avoid retransmitting portions of the image which have varied little from the previous frame. Further improvements can be achieved by using on-line learning during compression, and by appropriate compensation of nonlinearities in the compression/decompression scheme. We expect to go well beyond the 250:1 compression level for color images with good quality levels.

Gelenbe, Erol↗
NASA NTRS1995

On why dynamic subgrid-scale models work

Dynamic subgrid models have proved to be remarkably successful in predicting the behavior of turbulent flows. Part of the reasons for their success are well understood. Since they are constructed to generate an effective viscosity which is proportional to some measure of the turbulent energy at the high wavenumber end of the spectrum, their eddy viscosity vanishes as the flow becomes laminar. This alone would justify their use over simpler models. But beyond this obvious advantage, which is confined to inhomogeneous and evolving flows, the reason why they also work better in simpler homogeneous cases, and how they do it without any obvious adjustable parameter, is not clear. This lack of understanding of the internal mechanisms of a useful tool is disturbing, not only as an intellectual challenge, but because it raises the doubt of whether it will work in all cases. This note is an attempt to clarify those mechanisms. We will see why dynamic models are robust and how they can get away with even comparatively gross errors in their formulations. This will suggest that they are only particular cases of a larger family of robust models, all of which would be relatively insensitive to large simplifications in the physics of the flow. We will also construct some such models, although mostly as research tools. It will turn out, however, that the standard dynamic formulation is not only robust to errors, but also behaves as if it were substantially well formulated. The details of why this is so will still not be clear at the end of this note, specially since it will be shown that the 'a priori' testing of the stresses gives, as is usual in most subgrid models, very poor results. But it will be argued that the basic reason is that the dynamic formulation mimics the condition that the total dissipation is approximately equal to the production measured at the test filter level.

Jimenez, J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) IV

Atmospheric composition continues to be a key Earth science focus for international space agencies and research organizations. The target constituent varies depending upon the topic area of interest such as monitoring the ozone layer and the efficacy of the Montreal Protocol, assessing the influence of volcanic eruptions and large wildfires on the atmosphere, improving our knowledge of transport processes, or evaluating the impacts of greenhouse gases on climate. Additionally, there is a growing need for measurement continuity of many trace gases both from an inability to properly assess long-term trends without it as well as the reliance of reanalyses and chemistry climate models on observational input. To this end, proper continuity requires continuous and overlapping multi-instrument data records of which spaceborne measurements are a critical component. However, most current satellite systems are well beyond their expected lifetimes, and so we look toward the future to develop the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) IV as a future mission concept. Enabled by the NASA Earth Science Technology Office’s (ESTO) Instrument Incubator Program, the SAGE IV Pathfinder project developed and validated a prototype demonstration that paves the way for a future SAGE IV spaceflight mission. Utilizing solar occultation imaging, SAGE IV will be capable of measuring key species in the stratosphere and upper troposphere with the same quality as previous SAGE instruments but with greatly improved pointing knowledge and extensibility to new science targets. The precision and stability of a well-designed occultation instrument can act as a calibration reference standard for other spaceborne instruments, ensuring proper continuity of the desired science targets. Furthermore, current technological advancements allow SAGE IV to fit within a CubeSat framework and make use of commercial hardware, significantly reducing the size and cost when compared with traditional missions and enabling sustainability of future measurements.

Robert Damadeo↗
NASA NTRS1994

Properties of the mantle-like magnetotail boundary layer: GEOTAIL data compared with a mantle model

Near the tail boundary beyond about 100 R(sub e), GEOTAIL often encounters a plasma mantle-like boundary layer in which the plasma flowing tailward transitions smoothly from magnetosheath values of speed and density to much smaller values, more characteristic of the tail lobe. This boundary layer had earlier been recognized on the basis of International Sun Earth Explorer 3 (ISEE 3) measurements. GEOTAIL confirms the existence of this layer and extends the documentation on its behavior. Boundary oscillations sweep the boundary layer over the spacecraft enabling GEOTAIL to 'sound' the layer's profile of plasma parameters. The density-versus-speed correlogram of the mantle-like part -- a useful diagnostic for comparisons -- is reasonably well simulated by a 1-D, MHD slow-mode expansion fan model of the plasma mantle. Flow directions are consistent with an open plasma mantle on the northern, duskside flank of the tail, as expected for the standard magnetic merging model of mantle formation.

Siscoe, G. L.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Aeroelasticity Benchmark Assessment: Subsonic Fixed Wing Program

The fundamental technical challenge in computational aeroelasticity is the accurate prediction of unsteady aerodynamic phenomena and the effect on the aeroelastic response of a vehicle. Currently, a benchmarking standard for use in validating the accuracy of computational aeroelasticity codes does not exist. Many aeroelastic data sets have been obtained in wind-tunnel and flight testing throughout the world; however, none have been globally presented or accepted as an ideal data set. There are numerous reasons for this. One reason is that often, such aeroelastic data sets focus on the aeroelastic phenomena alone (flutter, for example) and do not contain associated information such as unsteady pressures and time-correlated structural dynamic deflections. Other available data sets focus solely on the unsteady pressures and do not address the aeroelastic phenomena. Other discrepancies can include omission of relevant data, such as flutter frequency and / or the acquisition of only qualitative deflection data. In addition to these content deficiencies, all of the available data sets present both experimental and computational technical challenges. Experimental issues include facility influences, nonlinearities beyond those being modeled, and data processing. From the computational perspective, technical challenges include modeling geometric complexities, coupling between the flow and the structure, grid issues, and boundary conditions. The Aeroelasticity Benchmark Assessment task seeks to examine the existing potential experimental data sets and ultimately choose the one that is viewed as the most suitable for computational benchmarking. An initial computational evaluation of that configuration will then be performed using the Langley-developed computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software FUN3D1 as part of its code validation process. In addition to the benchmarking activity, this task also includes an examination of future research directions. Researchers within the Aeroelasticity Branch will examine other experimental efforts within the Subsonic Fixed Wing (SFW) program (such as testing of the NASA Common Research Model (CRM)) and other NASA programs and assess aeroelasticity issues and research topics.

Florance, Jennifer P.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Gas dynamic simulations of galaxy formation

Results are presented from a simulation modeling the formation of a group of galaxies in a 'standard' cold, dark matter universe with delta = 1, h sub 0 = 50 km/(s(Mpc)), baryon fraction omega sub b = 0.1 and spectrum normalization sigma sub 8 = 0.6 (bias parameter b = 1.7). Initial conditions are generated within a periodic box with comoving length 16 Mpc in a manner constrained to produce a small cluster of total mass approximately 10 exp 14 solar mass. Two sets of 643 particles are used to model the dark matter and baryon fluids. Each gas particle represents 1.08 x 10 exp -8 solar mass, implying an L* galaxy is resolved by approximately 1000 particles. The system is evolved self-consistently in three dimensions using the combined N-body/hydrodynamic scheme P3MSPH up to a final redshift z = 1. Evolving to the present is prohibited by the fact that the mean density in the simulated volume is above critical and the entire volume would be going nonlinear beyond this point, We are currently analyzing another run with somewhat poorer mass resolution which was evolved to the present.

Evrard, August E.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Parameter estimation in space systems using recurrent neural networks

The identification of time-varying parameters encountered in space systems is addressed, using artificial neural systems. A hybrid feedforward/feedback neural network, namely a recurrent multilayer perception, is used as the model structure in the nonlinear system identification. The feedforward portion of the network architecture provides its well-known interpolation property, while through recurrency and cross-talk, the local information feedback enables representation of temporal variations in the system nonlinearities. The standard back-propagation-learning algorithm is modified and it is used for both the off-line and on-line supervised training of the proposed hybrid network. The performance of recurrent multilayer perceptron networks in identifying parameters of nonlinear dynamic systems is investigated by estimating the mass properties of a representative large spacecraft. The changes in the spacecraft inertia are predicted using a trained neural network, during two configurations corresponding to the early and late stages of the spacecraft on-orbit assembly sequence. The proposed on-line mass properties estimation capability offers encouraging results, though, further research is warranted for training and testing the predictive capabilities of these networks beyond nominal spacecraft operations.

Parlos, Alexander G.↗
NASA NTRS2004

O VI Emission from the Interstellar Medium

This project's primary goal was to examine the Local Bubble, a large hot bubble surrounding the solar neighborhood. In order to do this, we observed the 1032 and 1038 A resonance line emission from O VI in the bubble and used the,results to comment on models for the Local Bubble and its embedded clouds. In order to maximize the signal to noise of our spectrum, we combined the awarded guest investigator observation with unpublished FUSE In Orbit Checkout observations. The resulting spectrum was sufficiently good as to enable us to place tight 2 sigma upper limits on the intensities of the 1032 and the 1038 A resonance lines. We also measured or placed upper limits on the other cosmic lines in the bandpass, including C III and C II. These are the first known ultraviolet emission line measurements and/or upper limits for the gas in the Local Bubble (as opposed to gas anywhere along long lines of sight). With the O VI upper limits, we were able to quantitatively evaluate competing theories for the origins of the Local Bubble. The upper limits are well below those expected in the Breitschwerdt model (which proposes that during its its early development, the Local Bubble rapidly expanded beyond its nascent cloud and, as a result, is now vastly underionized). The upper limits on the O VI resonance line doublet intensity and the measurement of the C III intensity, garnered from this project, combined with measurements of the O VI column density, garnered from another project, are so far below the predictions, that they make a good case for eliminating the Breitschwerdt model from the field of possibilities. Thus, instead of being vastly underionized, the Local Bubble is near ionizational equilibrium. In addition, the upper limits challenge the other well-known model for the Local Bubble. In that model, the Local Bubble was blown by a series of supernova explosions and winds and contains a myriad of evaporating clouds. The intensity of the O VI resonance line doublet predicted from models exceeds the observationally determined 2 sigma upper limits. The discrepancy prompts the exciting suggestion that there may be some astrophysics yet to be considered in standard hydrodynamic models. These measurements performed a second useful function. By subtract- ing them from the O VI intensity observed on long sight-lines through the Galactic halo and Local Bubble, we were able to estimate the intensity originating the Galactic halo.

Shelton, Robin L.↗
NASA NTRS2011

NASA's UAS NAS Access Project

The vision of the Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Integration in the National Airspace System (NAS) Project is "A global transportation system which allows routine access for all classes of UAS." The goal of the UAS Integration in the NAS Project is to "contribute capabilities that reduce technical barriers related to the safety and operational challenges associated with enabling routine UAS access to the NAS." This goal will be accomplished through a two-phased approach based on development of system-level integration of key concepts, technologies and/or procedures, and demonstrations of integrated capabilities in an operationally relevant environment. Phase 1 will take place the first two years of the Project and Phase 2 will take place the following three years. The Phase 1 and 2 technical objectives are: Phase 1: Developing a gap analysis between current state of the art and the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) UAS Concept of Operations . Validating the key technical areas identified by this Project . Conducting initial modeling, simulation, and flight testing activities . Completing Sub-project Phase 1 deliverables (spectrum requirements, comparative analysis of certification methodologies, etc.) and continue Phase 2 preparation (infrastructure, tools, etc.) Phase 2: Providing regulators with a methodology for developing airworthiness requirements for UAS, and data to support development of certifications standards and regulatory guidance . Providing systems-level, integrated testing of concepts and/or capabilities that address barriers to routine access to the NAS. Through simulation and flight testing, address issues including separation assurance, communications requirements, and human systems integration in operationally relevant environments. The UAS in the NAS Project will demonstrate solutions in specific technology areas, which will address operational/safety issues related to UAS access to the NAS. Since the resource allocation for this Project is limited ($150M over the five years), the focus is on reducing the technical barriers where NASA has unique capabilities. As a result, technical areas, such as Sense and Avoid (SAA) and beyond line of sight command and control will not be addressed. While these are critical barriers to UAS access, currently, there is a great deal of global effort being exercised to address these challenge areas. Instead, specific technology development in areas where there is certainty that NASA can advance the research to high technology readiness levels will be the Project's focus. Specific sub-projects include Separation Assurance, Human Systems Integration, Communications, Certification, and Integrated Test and Evaluation. Each sub-project will transfer technologies to relevant key stakeholders and decision makers through research transition teams, technology forums, or through other analogous means.

Johnson, Charles W.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Trend Detection of Atmospheric Time Series: Incorporating Appropriate Uncertainty Estimates and Handling Extreme Events

This paper is aimed at atmospheric scientists without formal training in statistical theory. Its goal is to, 1) provide a critical review of the rationale for trend analysis of the time series typically encountered in the field of atmospheric chemistry; 2) describe a range of trend-detection methods; and 3) demonstrate effective means of conveying the results to a general audience. Trend detections in atmospheric chemical composition data are often challenged by a variety of sources of uncertainty, which often behave differently to other environmental phenomena such as temperature, precipitation rate, or stream flow, and may require specific methods depending on the science questions to be addressed. Some sources of uncertainty can be explicitly included in the model specification, such as autocorrelation and seasonality, but some inherent uncertainties are difficult to quantify, such as data heterogeneity and measurement uncertainty due to the combined effect of short- and long-term natural variability, instrumental stability, and aggregation of data from sparse sampling frequency. Failure to account for these uncertainties might result in an inappropriate inference of the trends and their estimation errors. On the other hand, the variation in extreme events might be interesting for different scientific questions, for example, the frequency of extremely high surface ozone events and their relevance to human health. In this study we aim to, 1) review trend detection methods for addressing different levels of data complexity in different chemical species; 2) demonstrate that the incorporation of scientifically interpretable covariates can outperform pure numerical curve fitting techniques in terms of uncertainty reduction and improved predictability; 3) illustrate the study of trends based on extreme quantiles that can provide insight beyond standard mean or median based trend estimates; and 4) present an advanced method of quantifying regional trends based on the inter-site correlations of multi-site data. All demonstrations are based on time series of observed trace gases relevant to atmospheric chemistry, but the methods can be applied to other environmental data sets.

Trace gas↗