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At least 127 records · Page 7

Multiyear Analysis of the Fate and Transport of Contaminated Soils at Plutonium Valley and the Smoky Site, Nevada National Security Site

Desert Research Institute (DRI) has collected approximately 10 years of atmospheric and hydrologic data at Plutonium Valley and the Smoky Site on the Nevada National Security Site to identify the potential for radionuclide-contaminated soils to be transported via wind and water. Plutonium preferentially binds to finer soil particles (Shinn et al., 1993; Miller et al., 2015), which can be transported through erosion processes. Data collected by DRI are used to determine the mechanisms and thresholds that result in the transport of radionuclide-contaminated soils, and climate model projections are used to understand how these mechanisms may change in the future. This work will help identify the parameters and threshold conditions that should be incorporated into post-closure monitoring plans for these and other Soils Corrective Action Unit (CAU) sites.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Physically based correction of systematic errors of Rotating Shadowband Irradiometers

Accurate measurements of direct normal, diffuse horizontal and global horizontal irradiance (DNI, DHI and GHI) are needed for meteorological studies and are essential for the solar resource assessment at potential solar power plant sites. Often, these potential sites are remote and hence require robust sensors that require minimal maintenance that are not affected strongly by soiling. Therefore, Rotating Shadowband Irradiometers (RSI) are widely used for resource assessment. To achieve the required accuracy, corrections for the raw values of RSIs depending on systematic temperature, incidence angle and spectral errors must be used, and a thorough calibration of the sensor head must be applied. The existing correction functions are derived from comparisons of RSIs to thermopile radiometers at selected sites and therefore empirical. Their accuracy is considered to be site dependent. In this work a new correction and calibration method is presented that removes the systematic errors using a physical approach. It is based on information of the sensor properties as well as measurements of its directional response, and incorporates the atmospheric conditions at the measurement site. In this case, no empiric relations obtained from a specific site are required. The method requires estimates of the current DHI and GHI spectra during each measurement of the RSI. Based on these spectra, a spectral correction, which includes a spectrum dependent temperature correction, can be made without employing empirical relationships. The new physical calibration and correction method is tested at three sites and reaches similar results compared to the empirical functions. This is already achieved with rudimentary estimations of the GHI and DHI spectra and we expect that these estimations can be improved in the future. The results indicate that the physical approach reduces the problematic location dependence of the current calibration and correction methods. The physical correction and calibration method show promise for a further improvement of the RSI accuracy.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Discussion: Presentation of Atmospheric 14 C O2 data

ABSTRACT Observations of radiocarbon ( 14 C) in Earth’s atmosphere and other carbon reservoirs are important to quantify exchanges of CO 2 between reservoirs. The amount of 14 C is commonly reported in the so-called Delta notation, i.e., Δ 14 C, the decay- and fractionation-corrected departure of the ratio of 14 C to total C from that ratio in an absolute international standard; this Delta notation permits direct comparison of 14 C/C ratios in the several reservoirs. However, as Δ 14 C of atmospheric CO 2 , Δ 14 CO 2 is based on the ratio of 14 CO 2 to total atmospheric CO 2 , its value can and does change not just because of change in the amount of atmospheric 14 CO 2 but also because of change in the amount of total atmospheric CO 2 , complicating ascription of change in Δ 14 CO 2 to change in one or the other quantity. Here we suggest that presentation of atmospheric 14 CO 2 amount as mole fraction relative to dry air (moles of 14 CO 2 per moles of dry air in Earth’s atmosphere), or as moles or molecules of 14 CO 2 in Earth’s atmosphere, all readily calculated from Δ 14 CO 2 and the amount of atmospheric CO 2 (with slight dependence on δ 13 CO 2 ), complements presentation only as Δ 14 CO 2 , and can provide valuable insight into the evolving budget and distribution of atmospheric 14 CO 2 .

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

Decadal predictability of North Atlantic blocking and the NAO

Can multi-annual variations in the frequency of North Atlantic atmospheric blocking and mid-latitude circulation regimes be skilfully predicted? Recent advances in seasonal forecasting have shown that mid-latitude climate variability does exhibit significant predictability. However, atmospheric predictability has generally been found to be quite limited on multi-annual timescales. New decadal prediction experiments from NCAR are found to exhibit remarkable skill in reproducing the observed multi-annual variations of wintertime blocking frequency over the North Atlantic and of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) itself. This is partly due to the large ensemble size that allows the predictable component of the atmospheric variability to emerge from the background chaotic component. The predictable atmospheric anomalies represent a forced response to oceanic low-frequency variability that strongly resembles the Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability (AMV), correctly reproduced in the decadal hindcasts thanks to realistic ocean initialization and ocean dynamics. The occurrence of blocking in certain areas of the Euro-Atlantic domain determines the concurrent circulation regime and the phase of known teleconnections, such as the NAO, consequently affecting the stormtrack and the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Therefore, skilfully predicting the decadal fluctuations of blocking frequency and the NAO may be used in statistical predictions of near-term climate anomalies, and it provides a strong indication that impactful climate anomalies may also be predictable with improved dynamical models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

FSISPH: An SPH formulation for impacts between dissimilar materials

Here, we present an SPH formulation with several new features designed to better model the fully-compressible interaction of dissimilar materials. We developed the new method to simulate the atmospheric entry and break-up of small celestial bodies in planetary atmospheres. The formulation uses a unity-based, density-energy discretization of the hydrodynamic conservation laws with linear-corrected kernel gradients. To account for variations in compressibility, we use an HLLC approximate Riemann solver to adjust the velocity gradient at material interfaces. To handle large transverse velocity discontinuities, we introduce a simple slip interface model that limits the artificial viscosity at material interfaces. Diffusion is optionally applied through the velocity gradient and this allows the density and specific thermal energy to evolve in a manner more consistent with the first law of thermodynamics in comparison to other more direct diffusion schemes. We also introduce a material-local second-order artificial conduction scheme used to smooth the specific thermal energy field. Material damage fits neatly under this framework by treating the damage front as a material interface. The method has been implemented as a solver, FSISPH, within the code, Spheral++, and is publicly available on github. We test our new solver on a number of classic shock, mixing, and multi-material problem. The components we outline can significantly improve accuracy of SPH for problems with sharp contact discontinuities.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Comparing Gravity Waves in a Kilometer‐Scale Run of the IFS to AIRS Satellite Observations and ERA5

Abstract Atmospheric gravity waves (GWs) impact the circulation and variability of the atmosphere. Sub‐grid scale GWs, which are too small to be resolved, are parameterized in weather and climate models. However, some models are now available at resolutions at which these waves become resolved and it is important to test whether these models do this correctly. In this study, a GW resolving run of the European Center for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), run with a 1.4 km average grid spacing (TCo7999 resolution), is compared to observations from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument, on NASA's Aqua satellite, to test how well the model resolves GWs that AIRS can observe. In this analysis, nighttime data are used from the first 10 days of November 2018 over part of Asia and surrounding regions. The IFS run is resampled with AIRS's observational filter using two different methods for comparison. The ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis is also resampled as AIRS, to allow for comparison of how the high resolution IFS run resolves GWs compared to a lower resolution model that uses GW drag parametrizations. Wave properties are found in AIRS and the resampled models using a multi‐dimensional S‐Transform method. Orographic GWs can be seen in similar locations at similar times in all three data sets. However, wave amplitudes and momentum fluxes in the resampled IFS run are found to be significantly lower than in the observations. This could be a result of horizontal and vertical wavelengths in the IFS run being underestimated.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Improving the astrometric solution of the Hyper Suprime-Cam with anisotropic Gaussian processes

Context. We study astrometric residuals from a simultaneous fit of Hyper Suprime-Cam images. Aims. We aim to characterize these residuals and study the extent to which they are dominated by atmospheric contributions for bright sources. Methods. We used Gaussian process interpolation with a correlation function (kernel) measured from the data to smooth and correct the observed astrometric residual field. Results. We find that a Gaussian process interpolation with a von Kármán kernel allows us to reduce the covariances of astrometric residuals for nearby sources by about one order of magnitude, from 30 mas 2 to 3 mas 2 at angular scales of ~1 arcmin. This also allows us to halve the rms residuals. Those reductions using Gaussian process interpolation are similar to recent result published with the Dark Energy Survey dataset. We are then able to detect the small static astrometric residuals due to the Hyper Suprime-Cam sensors effects. We discuss how the Gaussian process interpolation of astrometric residuals impacts galaxy shape measurements, particularly in the context of cosmic shear analyses at the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Global vegetation biomass production efficiency constrained by models and observations

Typically, plants use only a fraction of their photosynthetically derived carbon for biomass production (BP). The biomass production efficiency (BPE), defined as the ratio of BP to photosynthesis, and its variation across and within vegetation types is poorly understood, which hinders our capacity to accurately estimate carbon turnover times and carbon sinks. In this work, we introduce a new global estimation of BPE obtained by combining field measurements from 113 sites with 14 carbon cycle models. Our best estimate of global BPE is 0.41 ± 0.05, excluding cropland. The largest BPE is found in boreal forests (0.48 ± 0.06) and the lowest in tropical forests (0.40 ± 0.04). Carbon cycle models overestimate BPE, although models with carbon–nitrogen interactions tend to be more realistic. Using observation-based estimates of global photosynthesis, we quantify the global BP of non-cropland ecosystems of 41 ± 6 Pg C/year. This flux is less than net primary production as it does not contain carbon allocated to symbionts, used for exudates or volatile carbon compound emissions to the atmosphere. Our study reveals a positive bias of 24 ± 11% in the model-estimated BP (10 of 14 models). When correcting models for this bias while leaving modeled carbon turnover times unchanged, we found that the global ecosystem carbon storage change during the last century is decreased by 67% (or 58 Pg C).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

How Snow Aggregate Ellipsoid Shape and Orientation Variability Affects Fall Speed and Self-Aggregation Rates

Snow aggregate shapes and orientations have long been known to exhibit substantial variability. Despite this observed variability, most weather and climate prediction models use fixed power-law functions that deterministically map particle size to mass and fall speed. As such, integrated quantities like precipitation and self-aggregation rates currently ignore nonlinear effects resulting from variation in shape and orientation for aggregates of the same size. This study therefore develops an analytic framework that couples an empirically based bivariate distribution of ellipsoid shapes to classical hydrodynamic theory so as to capture an appropriate dispersion of masses, projected areas, and fall speeds for an assumed size distribution. For a fixed aggregate size, shape variations produce approximately ±0.13 m s -1 standard deviation of fall speed which increases the mass flux fall speed dispersion by more than 100% over traditional microphysics models. This increased fall speed dispersion results predominantly from shape-induced mass dispersion whereas orientation and drag dispersion play a lesser role. Shape variations can increase mass- and reflectivity-weighted fall speeds by up to 60% of traditional models whereas self-aggregation rates can increase by a factor of 100 for very small slope parameters. This implies that aggregate shape variations effectively forestall the theorized onset of fall speed distribution narrowing and subsequent quenching of the aggregation process. As a result, it is likely that secondary ice formation is necessary to prevent an ever decreasing slope parameter. The mathematical theory presented in this study is used to develop simple correction factors for snow forecast and climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The atmospheric importance of methylamine additions to Criegee intermediates

We report that Criegee intermediates are important targets for study in atmospheric chemistry because of their capacity to oxidize airborne species. Among these species, ammonia has received critical attention for its presence in polluted agricultural or industrial areas and its role in forming particulate matter and condensation nuclei. Although methylamine has been given less attention than ammonia, both theoretical and experimental studies have demonstrated that the additional methyl substitution on the ammonia derivatives increases the rate constants for some systems. This suggests that the methylamine addition to Criegee intermediates could be more significant to atmospheric processes. In this work, geometries are optimized at the DF-CCSD(T)/ANO1 level for the methylamine addition reactions to the simplest Criegee intermediate and the anti- and syn-methylated Criegee intermediates. Energies for each stationary point were computed at the CCSD(T)/CBS level with corrections from the CCSDT(Q) method. Rate constants are obtained for each reaction using canonical transition state theory. Although methylamine addition proved to be a more favorable reaction relative to ammonia addition, the significantly lower concentration of atmospheric methylamine limits the prevalence of these reactions, even in the most optimal conditions. It is unlikely that the methylamine addition to Criegee intermediates will contribute significantly to the consumption of Criegee intermediates in the atmosphere.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A simple soil mass correction for a more accurate determination of soil carbon stock changes

Abstract Agricultural soils can act as a sink for large quantities of soil organic carbon (SOC) but can also be sources of carbon to the atmosphere. The international standard for assessing SOC stock and measuring stock change stipulates fixed depth sampling to at least 30 cm. The tendency of bulk density (BD) to decrease with decreasing disturbance and increasing SOC concentration and the assumption of constant SOC and BD within this depth profile promotes error in the estimates of SOC stock. A hypothetical but realistic change in BD from 1.5 to 1.1 g cm −3 from successive fixed depth sampling to 30 cm underestimates SOC stock change by 17%. Significant effort has been made to evaluate and reduce this fixed depth error by using the equivalent soil mass (ESM) approach, but with limited adoption. We evaluate the error in SOC stock assessment and change generated from fixed depth measurements over time relative to the ESM approach and propose a correction that can be readily adopted under current sampling and analytical methods. Our approach provides a more accurate estimate of SOC stock accumulation or loss that will help incentivize management practice changes that reduce the environmental impacts of agriculture and further legitimize the accounting practices used by the emerging carbon market and organizations that have pledged to reduce their supply chain greenhouse gas (GHG) footprints.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Analysis of Random Forest Modeling Strategies for Multi-Step Wind Speed Forecasting

Although the random forest (RF) model is a powerful machine learning tool that has been utilized in many wind speed/power forecasting studies, there has been no consensus on optimal RF modeling strategies. This study investigates three basic questions which aim to assist in the discernment and quantification of the effects of individual model properties, namely: (1) using a standalone RF model versus using RF as a correction mechanism for the persistence approach, (2) utilizing a recursive versus direct multi-step forecasting strategy, and (3) training data availability on model forecasting accuracy from one to six hours ahead. These questions are investigated utilizing data from the FINO1 offshore platform and Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) C1 site, and testing results are compared to the persistence method. At FINO1, due to the presence of multiple wind farms and high inter-annual variability, RF is more effective as an error-correction mechanism for the persistence approach. The direct forecasting strategy is seen to slightly outperform the recursive strategy, specifically for forecasts three or more steps ahead. Finally, increased data availability (up to ~8 equivalent years of hourly training data) appears to continually improve forecasting accuracy, although changing environmental flow patterns have the potential to negate such improvement. We hope that the findings of this study will assist future researchers and industry professionals to construct accurate, reliable RF models for wind speed forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Scaling Behavior of a Turbulent Kinetic Energy Closure Scheme for the Stably Stratified Atmosphere: A Steady-State Analysis

Abstract We present a turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) closure scheme for the stably stratified atmosphere in which the mixing lengths for momentum and heat are not parameterized in the same manner. The key difference is that, while the mixing length for heat tends toward the stability independent mixing length for momentum in neutrally stratified conditions, it tends toward one based on the Brunt–Väisälä time scale and square root of the TKE in the limit of large stability. This enables a unique steady-state solution for TKE to be obtained, which we demonstrate would otherwise be impossible if the mixing lengths were the same. Despite the model’s relative simplicity, it is shown to perform reasonably well with observational data from the 1999 Cooperative Atmosphere–Surface Exchange Study (CASES-99) using commonly employed model constants. Analyzing the scaling behavior of the nondimensional velocity and potential temperature gradients, or of the stability (correction) functions, reveals that for large stability the present model scales in the same manner as the first-order operational scheme of Viterbo et al. Alternatively, it appears as a blend of two cases of the TKE closure scheme of Baas et al. Critically, because a unique steady-state TKE can be obtained, the present model avoids the nonphysical behavior identified in one of the cases of Baas et al.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Modeling gamma radiation exposure rates using geologic and remote sensing data to locate radiogenic anomalies

Aerial Gamma-Ray Surveys (GRS) are ideal for tracking anthropogenic gamma radiation releases and transport. The interpretation of a GRS can be complicated by natural gamma-ray sources such as atmospheric radon, cosmic rays, geologic materials, and even the survey equipment itself. Some of these complicating factors can be accounted for or corrected by calibration or mathematic techniques. Real-time algorithms that attempt to enhance potential radiogenic anomalies over background are also in use. However, natural geology is a source of significant background gamma-ray production and neither mathematical corrections nor real-time algorithmic approaches directly account for geology and geochemistry. Here in this study, we advance techniques to predict geologic background exposure rates using rapid and practical methods which can be achieved in the field. In addition we generate models that focus specifically on highlighting radiogenic anomalies for emergency response or further investigation. Predictive models developed in this study were generally able to predict background with medians of ± 1.0 μR/h compared to measured data, and were also able to highlight anomalous areas even where radiation exposure rates were within the range of natural background.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Gemini/GMOS Transmission Spectroscopy of the Grazing Planet Candidate WD 1856+534 b

WD 1856+534 b is a Jupiter-sized, cool giant planet candidate transiting the white dwarf WD 1856+534. Here, we report an optical transmission spectrum of WD 1856+534 b obtained from ten transits using the Gemini Multi Object Spectrograph. This system is challenging to observe due to the faintness of the host star and the short transit duration. Nevertheless, our phase-folded white light curve reached a precision of 0.12%. WD 1856+534 b provides a unique transit configuration compared to other known exoplanets: the planet is 8x larger than its star and occults over half of the stellar disk during mid-transit. Consequently, many standard modeling assumptions do not hold. We introduce the concept of a “limb darkening corrected, time-averaged transmission spectrum” and propose that this is more suitable than (R pλ /R s ) 2 for comparisons to atmospheric models for planets with grazing transits. We also present a modified radiative transfer prescription. Though the transmission spectrum shows no prominent absorption features, it is sufficiently precise to constrain the mass of WD 1856+534 b to be >0.84 M J (to 2σ confidence), assuming a clear atmosphere and a Jovian composition. High-altitude cloud decks can allow lower masses. WD 1856+534 b could have formed either as a result of common envelope evolution or migration under the Kozai–Lidov mechanism. Further studies of WD 1856+534 b, alongside new dedicated searches for substellar objects around white dwarfs, will shed further light on the mysteries of post-main-sequence planetary systems.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Role of chemical production and depositional losses on formaldehyde in the Community Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Multiphase Mechanism (CRACMM)

Abstract. Formaldehyde (HCHO) is an important air pollutant with direct cancer risk and ozone-forming potential. HCHO sources are complex because HCHO is both directly emitted and produced from oxidation of most gas-phase reactive organic carbon. We update the secondary production of HCHO in the Community Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Multiphase Mechanism (CRACMM) in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. Production of HCHO from isoprene and monoterpenes is increased, correcting an underestimate in the current version. Simulated June–August surface HCHO during peak photochemical production (11:00–15:00 LT, local time) increased by 0.6 ppb (32 %) over the southeastern USA and by 0.2 ppb (13 %) over the contiguous USA. The increased HCHO compares more favorably with satellite-based observations from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) and from aircraft-based observations. Evaluation against hourly surface observations indicates a missing nighttime sink that can be improved by increased nighttime deposition, which reduces June–August nocturnal (20:00–04:00 LT) surface HCHO by 1.1 ppb (36 %) over the southeastern USA and 0.5 ppb (29 %) over the contiguous USA. The ability of CRACMM to capture peak levels of HCHO at midday is improved, particularly at sites in the northeastern USA, while peak levels at sites in the southeastern USA are improved, although still lower than observed. Using established risk assessment methods, lifetime exposure of the population in the contiguous USA (∼ 320 million) to ambient HCHO levels predicted here may result in 6200 lifetime cancer cases, with 40 % from controllable anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen oxides and reactive organic compounds. Chemistry updates will be available in CRACMM version 2 (CRACMM2) in CMAQv5.5.

Skipper, T. Nash↗

Bias Corrected NOAA HRRR Wind Resource Data for Grid Integration Applications

To address the need for regularly updated wind resource data, NREL has processed the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) outputs for use in grid integration modeling. The HRRR is an hourly-updated operational forecast product produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (Dowell et al., 2022). Several barriers have prevented the HRRR's widespread proliferation in the wind energy industry: missing timesteps (prior to 2019), challenging file format for wind energy analysis, limited vertical height resolution, and negative bias versus legacy WIND Toolkit data (2007-2013). NREL has applied re-gridding, interpolation, and bias-correction to the native HRRR data to overcome these limitations. This results in the now-publicly-available bias corrected and interpolated HRRR (BC-HRRR) dataset for weather years 2015 to 2023. Bias correction is necessary for wind resource consistency across weather years to be used simultaneously in planning-focused grid integration studies alongside the original WIND Toolkit data. We show that quantile mapping with the WIND Toolkit as a historical baseline is an effective method for bias correcting the interpolated HRRR data: the BC-HRRR has reduced mean bias versus comparable gridded wind resource datasets (+0.12 m/s versus Vortex) and has very low mean bias versus ground measurement stations (+0.01 m/s) (Buster et al., 2024). BC-HRRR's consistency with the legacy WIND Toolkit allows NREL to extend grid integration analysis to 15+ weather years of wind data with low-overhead extensibility to future years as they are made available by NOAA. As with historical datasets like the WIND Toolkit, BC-HRRR is intended for use in grid integration modeling (e.g., capacity expansion, production cost, and resource adequacy modeling) both independently and alongside the legacy WIND Toolkit.

Array↗

Bias Correcting NOAA's High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Wind Resource Data for Grid Integration Applications [Slides]

Many weather years of high-quality wind data are widely accepted in the grid integration community to be important for studying wind energy technical potential, energy system operations, and grid resilience. NREL makes high-quality wind and solar resource data available. NREL's Grid-Atmosphere workshop (March 2024) identified NREL National Solar Radiation Database as widely used in grid integration modeling, but there is less agreement on commonly used wind datasets. One important factor identified by ESIG's 2023 report 'Weather Dataset Needs for Planning and Analyzing Modern Power Systems' for gold standard wind data is regular updates. To address the need for regular updates, NREL's team can now process all currently available and regularly updated High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) outputs. HRRR is an hourly-updated operational forecast product produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (Dowell et al., 2022). One barrier to NREL using HRRR is systematic bias and consistency with NREL's existing wind datasets (e.g. WIND Toolkit, 'WTK') across weather years. To address this barrier, we show that the HRRR can be interpolated and bias-corrected to be consistent with NRE's existing datasets. We call the new dataset BC-HRRR (bias-corrected HRRR). As with historical datasets like the WTK, BC-HRRR is intended for use in grid integration modeling (e.g., capacity expansion, production cost, and resource adequacy modeling). BC-HRRR's (2015-present) consistency with WTK (2007-2013) allows NREL to extend internal grid integration tooling with 15+ weather years of wind data with low-overhead extensibility to future years as they are made available by NOAA. The rest of this slide deck documents the BC-HRRR processing methods, validation, and its implications for intended use.

17 WIND ENERGY↗