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Quantum mechanics and statistical mechanics applied to solution of biological and chemical problems - chemical bonding, resonance, spin, and transport phenomena
Mean and variance of Faraday rotation and pulsar signal dispersion in galactic turbulent structure, applying to statistically homogeneous disk model of Galaxy
Both composite and free strands have been tested to study matrix effectiveness. Glass from different lots were used, and processing parameters were varied to demonstrate the effects of material variability. The statistical patterns that emerge from these experiments show that lifetime distributions are characteristically skewed. As a class, the lifetime distributions are well approximated by the reduced form of the Weibull distribution. The strength retention data display little early degradation. The retained-strength distributions can also be classed as Weibull distributions. A statistical model applied to the data gives predictions of progressive failure, strength retention path, and expected life for two basic types of internal fracture processes.
The applicability of rawinsonde data for either detection or prediction of clear air turbulence is discussed. The mechanism currently believed responsible for the development of CAT is reviewed. Since previous studies determined that the most significant factor for the existence of turbulent layers is the magnitude of the vertical shear, certain theoretically derived shear criteria was applied to statistical and diagnostic comparisons of rawinsonde and Jimsphere/Jimsonde conjunctive vertical profiles. It is determined that the Rawinsonde system cannot reliably be used as a CAT detector in a single-station sense.
Corrections applied to statistical programs contained in two subroutines of the Bed Rest Analysis Software System (BRASS) are summarized. Two subroutines independently calculate significant values within the BRASS program.
A structural-stochastic image model is developed for the analysis and synthesis of cloud images. The ability of the model to characterize the visual appearance of cloud fields observed by satellite with a limited number of parameters is demonstrated. The model merges structural and stochastic information, the stochastic model acting as a local statistical operator applied to the output of the structural model. The structural or large-scale organization of the scene is retrieved from the two-dimensional Fourier representation of the digital image. The pattern generated by the major Fourier components provides a first guess of the scene. The stochastic aspect is described by a Markov model of texture that assumes a binomial probability distribution for the local grey-level variability. This Markov model provides four parameters that represent the clustering strength in the horizontal, vertical and diagonal directions. These parameters are estimated by a standard maximum-likelihood technique. The image can be reproduced with a fair degree of verisimilitude from these parameters. The data compression factor is of the order of one hundred to several hundreds.
It is shown that a fluid flow which are invariant under translations along their vorticity field directions can be described in terms of a formally 2D system. Its nonviscous behavior of the scalar vorticity is governed by Hamiltonian dynamics, similar to the 2D line vortex case. Applying a statistical mechanical method, the equilibrium distribution of the vorticity field for such a general 2D system is shown to obey a nonlinear partial differential equation that is a generalization of the sinh-Poisson equation derived by Montgomery and Joyce (1973, 1974). Thus, if the domain containing the fluid is finite, similar negative temperature states may occur and the distribution of the vorticity intensity may become localized in space. The results are believed to have applications in studying large-scale partial and temporal properties of flows having small but nonzero viscosity. The analysis can probably be extended to other fluid systems with curved magnetic field lines.
Spacewatch was begun in 1980; its purpose is to explore the various populations of small objects within the solar system. Spacewatch provides data for studies of comets and asteroids, finds potential targets for space missions, and provides information on the environmental problem of possible impacts. Moving objects are discovered by scanning the sky with charge-coupled devices (CCDS) on the 0.9-meter Spacewatch Telescope of the University of Arizona on Kitt Peak. Each Spacewatch scan consists of three drift scan passes over an area of sky using a CCD filtered to a bandpass of 0.5-1.0 pm (approximately V+R+I with peak sensitivity at 0.7 pm). The effective exposure time for each pass is 143 seconds multiplied by the secant of the declination. The area covered by each scan is 32 arcminutes in declination by about 28 minutes of time in right ascension. The image scale is 1.05 arcseconds per pixel. Three passes take about 1.5 hours to complete and show motions of individual objects over a one hour time baseline. The limiting magnitude is about 21.5 in single scans. CCD scanning was developed by Spacewatch in the early 1980s, with improvements still being made - particularly by bringing a new 1.8-m Spacewatch Telescope on line. In the meantime, we have been finding some 30,000 new asteroids per year and applying their statistics to the study of the collisional history of the solar system. Spacewatch had found a total of 150 Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAS) and 8 new comets, and had recovered one lost comet (P/Spitaler in 1993). Spacewatch is also efficient in recovery of known comets and has detected and reported positions for more than 137,000 asteroids, mostly new ones in the main belt, including more than 10,882 asteroids designated by the Minor Planet Center (MPC).
The purpose of Spacewatch is to explore the various populations of small objects within the solar system. Spacewatch provides data for studies of comets and asteroids, finds potential targets for space missions, and provides information on the environmental problem of possible impacts. Moving objects are discovered by scanning the sky with charge-coupled devices (CCDs) on the 0.9-meter Spacewatch Telescope of the University of Arizona on Kitt Peak. Each Spacewatch scan consists of three drift scan passes over an area of sky using a CCD filtered to a bandpass of 0.5-1.0 microns (approximately V+R+I with peak sensitivity at 0.7 micron). The effective exposure time for each pass is 143 seconds multiplied by the secant of the declination. We have been finding some 30,000 new asteroids per year and applying their statistics to the study of the collisional history of the solar system. As of the end of the observing run of Nov. 1997, Spacewatch had found a total of 153 Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs) and 8 new comets since the project began in the 1980s, and had recovered one lost comet. The total number of NEAs found by Spacewatch big enough to be hazardous if they were to impact the Earth is 36. Spacewatch is also efficient in recovery of known comets and has detected and reported positions for more than 137,000 asteroids, mostly new ones in the main belt, including more than 16,000 asteroids designated by the Minor Planet Center (MPC).
Experimental aerodynamic researchers require estimated precision and bias uncertainties of measured physical quantities, typically at 95 percent confidence levels. Uncertainties of final computed aerodynamic parameters are obtained by propagation of individual measurement uncertainties through the defining functional expressions. In this paper, rigorous mathematical techniques are extended to determine precision and bias uncertainties of any instrument-sensor system. Through this analysis, instrument uncertainties determined through calibration are now expressed as functions of the corresponding measurement for linear and nonlinear univariate and multivariate processes. Treatment of correlated measurement precision error is developed. During laboratory calibration, calibration standard uncertainties are assumed to be an order of magnitude less than those of the instrument being calibrated. Often calibration standards do not satisfy this assumption. This paper applies rigorous statistical methods for inclusion of calibration standard uncertainty and covariance due to the order of their application. The effects of mathematical modeling error on calibration bias uncertainty are quantified. The effects of experimental design on uncertainty are analyzed. The importance of replication is emphasized, techniques for estimation of both bias and precision uncertainties using replication are developed. Statistical tests for stationarity of calibration parameters over time are obtained.
The variability of the horizontal circulation in the stratosphere and troposphere of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) is compared by using various approaches. Spatial degrees of freedom (dof) on different time scales were derived. Modes of variability were computed in geopotential height fields at the tropospheric and stratospheric pressure levels by applying multivariate statistical approaches. Features of the spatial and temporal variability of the winterly zonal wind were studied with the help of recurrence and persistence analyses. The geopotential height and zonally-averaged zonal wind at the 50-, 500- and 1000-hPa level are used to investigate the behavior of the horizontal circulation in the lower stratosphere, mid-troposphere and at the near surface level, respectively. It is illustrated that the features of the variability of the horizontal circulation are very similar in the mid-troposphere and at the near surface level. Due to the filtering of tropospheric disturbances by the stratospheric and upper tropospheric zonal mean flow, the variability of the stratospheric circulation exhibits less spatial complexity than the circulation at tropospheric pressure levels. There exist enormous differences in the number of degrees of freedom (or free variability modes) between both atmospheric layers. Results of the analyses clearly show that the concept of a zonally symmetric AO with a simple structure in the troposphere similar to the one in the stratosphere is not valid. It is concluded that the spatially filtered climate change signal can be detected earlier in the stratosphere than in the mid-troposphere or at the near surface level.
Realistic vertical heating and drying profiles in a cumulus scheme is important for obtaining accurate weather forecasts. A new empirical cumulus parameterization scheme based on a procedure to improve the vertical distribution of heating and moistening over the tropics is developed. The empirical cumulus parameterization scheme (ECPS) utilizes profiles of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) based heating and moistening derived from the European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis. A dimension reduction technique through rotated principal component analysis (RPCA) is performed on the vertical profiles of heating (Q1) and drying (Q2) over the convective regions of the tropics, to obtain the dominant modes of variability. Analysis suggests that most of the variance associated with the observed profiles can be explained by retaining the first three modes. The ECPS then applies a statistical approach in which Q1 and Q2 are expressed as a linear combination of the first three dominant principal components which distinctly explain variance in the troposphere as a function of the prevalent large-scale dynamics. The principal component (PC) score which quantifies the contribution of each PC to the corresponding loading profile is estimated through a multiple screening regression method which yields the PC score as a function of the large-scale variables. The profiles of Q1 and Q2 thus obtained are found to match well with the observed profiles. The impact of the ECPS is investigated in a series of short range (1-3 day) prediction experiments using the Florida State University global spectral model (FSUGSM, T126L14). Comparisons between short range ECPS forecasts and those with the modified Kuo scheme show a very marked improvement in the skill in ECPS forecasts. This improvement in the forecast skill with ECPS emphasizes the importance of incorporating realistic vertical distributions of heating and drying in the model cumulus scheme. This also suggests that in the absence of explicit models for convection, the proposed statistical scheme improves the modeling of the vertical distribution of heating and moistening in areas of deep convection.
This report presents the results of arc track testing conducted to determine if such a transfer of power to un-energized wires is possible and/or likely during an arcing event, and to evaluate an array of protection schemes that may significantly reduce the possibility of such a transfer. The results of these experiments may be useful for determining the level of protection necessary to guard against spurious voltage and current being applied to safety critical circuits. It was not the purpose of these experiments to determine the probability of the initiation of an arc track event only if an initiation did occur could it cause the undesired event: an inadvertent thruster firing. The primary wire insulation used in the Orbiter is aromatic polyimide, or Kapton , a construction known to arc track under certain conditions [3]. Previous Boeing testing has shown that arc tracks can initiate in aromatic polyimide insulated 28 volts direct current (VDC) power circuits using more realistic techniques such as chafing with an aluminum blade (simulating the corner of an avionics box or lip of a wire tray), or vibration of an aluminum plate against a wire bundle [4]. Therefore, an arc initiation technique was chosen that provided a reliable and consistent technique of starting the arc and not a realistic simulation of a scenario on the vehicle. Once an arc is initiated, the current, power and propagation characteristics of the arc depend on the power source, wire gauge and insulation type, circuit protection and series resistance rather than type of initiation. The initiation method employed for these tests was applying an oil and graphite mixture to the ends of a powered twisted pair wire. The flight configuration of the heater circuits, the fuel/oxider (or ox) wire, and the RCS jet solenoid were modeled in the test configuration so that the behavior of these components during an arcing event could be studied. To determine if coil activation would occur with various protection wire schemes, 145 tests were conducted using various fuel/ox wire alternatives (shielded and unshielded) and/or different combinations of polytetrafuloroethylene (PTFE), Mystik tape and convoluted wraps to prevent unwanted coil activation. Test results were evaluated along with other pertinent data and information to develop a mitigation strategy for an inadvertent RCS firing. The SSP evaluated civilian aircraft wiring failures to search for aging trends in assessing the wire-short hazard. Appendix 2 applies Weibull statistical methods to the same data with a similar purpose.
A computational method and system based on a hybrid of an artificial neural network (NN) and a support vector machine (SVM) (see figure) has been conceived as a means of maximizing or minimizing an objective function, optionally subject to one or more constraints. Such maximization or minimization could be performed, for example, to optimize solve a data-regression or data-classification problem or to optimize a design associated with a response function. A response function can be considered as a subset of a response surface, which is a surface in a vector space of design and performance parameters. A typical example of a design problem that the method and system can be used to solve is that of an airfoil, for which a response function could be the spatial distribution of pressure over the airfoil. In this example, the response surface would describe the pressure distribution as a function of the operating conditions and the geometric parameters of the airfoil. The use of NNs to analyze physical objects in order to optimize their responses under specified physical conditions is well known. NN analysis is suitable for multidimensional interpolation of data that lack structure and enables the representation and optimization of a succession of numerical solutions of increasing complexity or increasing fidelity to the real world. NN analysis is especially useful in helping to satisfy multiple design objectives. Feedforward NNs can be used to make estimates based on nonlinear mathematical models. One difficulty associated with use of a feedforward NN arises from the need for nonlinear optimization to determine connection weights among input, intermediate, and output variables. It can be very expensive to train an NN in cases in which it is necessary to model large amounts of information. Less widely known (in comparison with NNs) are support vector machines (SVMs), which were originally applied in statistical learning theory. In terms that are necessarily oversimplified to fit the scope of this article, an SVM can be characterized as an algorithm that (1) effects a nonlinear mapping of input vectors into a higher-dimensional feature space and (2) involves a dual formulation of governing equations and constraints. One advantageous feature of the SVM approach is that an objective function (which one seeks to minimize to obtain coefficients that define an SVM mathematical model) is convex, so that unlike in the cases of many NN models, any local minimum of an SVM model is also a global minimum.
When projecting imagery into a georeferenced coordinate frame, one needs to have some model of the geographical region that is being projected to. This model can sometimes be a simple geometrical curve, such as an ellipse or even a plane. However, to obtain accurate projections, one needs to have a more sophisticated model that encodes the undulations in the terrain including things like mountains, valleys, and even manmade structures. The product that is often used for this purpose is a Digital Elevation Model (DEM). The technology presented here generates a high-quality DEM from a collection of 2D images taken from multiple viewpoints, plus pose data for each of the images and a camera model for the sensor. The technology assumes that the images are all of the same region of the environment. The pose data for each image is used as an initial estimate of the geometric relationship between the images, but the pose data is often noisy and not of sufficient quality to build a high-quality DEM. Therefore, the source imagery is passed through a feature-tracking algorithm and multi-plane-homography algorithm, which refine the geometric transforms between images. The images and their refined poses are then passed to a stereo algorithm, which generates dense 3D data for each image in the sequence. The 3D data from each image is then placed into a consistent coordinate frame and passed to a routine that divides the coordinate frame into a number of cells. The 3D points that fall into each cell are collected, and basic statistics are applied to determine the elevation of that cell. The result of this step is a DEM that is in an arbitrary coordinate frame. This DEM is then filtered and smoothed in order to remove small artifacts. The final step in the algorithm is to take the initial DEM and rotate and translate it to be in the world coordinate frame [such as UTM (Universal Transverse Mercator), MGRS (Military Grid Reference System), or geodetic] such that it can be saved in a standard DEM format and used for projection.
Climate change is projected to push the limits of cropping systems and has the potential to disrupt the agricultural sector from local to global scales. This article introduces the Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP), an initiative of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to engage a global network of crop modelers to explore the impacts of climate change via an investigation of crop responses to changes in carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]), temperature, and water. As a demonstration of the C3MP protocols and enabled analyses, we apply the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) CROPGRO-Peanut crop model for Henry County, Alabama, to evaluate responses to the range of plausible [CO2], temperature changes, and precipitation changes projected by climate models out to the end of the 21st century. These sensitivity tests are used to derive crop model emulators that estimate changes in mean yield and the coefficient of variation for seasonal yields across a broad range of climate conditions, reproducing mean yields from sensitivity test simulations with deviations of ca. 2% for rain-fed conditions. We apply these statistical emulators to investigate how peanuts respond to projections from various global climate models, time periods, and emissions scenarios, finding a robust projection of modest (<10%) median yield losses in the middle of the 21st century accelerating to more severe (>20%) losses and larger uncertainty at the end of the century under the more severe representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5). This projection is not substantially altered by the selection of the AgMERRA global gridded climate dataset rather than the local historical observations, differences between the Third and Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5), or the use of the delta method of climate impacts analysis rather than the C3MP impacts response surface and emulator approach.
The Water vapour Strong Lines at 183 GHz (183-WSL) algorithm is a method for the retrieval of rain rates and precipitation type classification (convectivestratiform), that makes use of the water vapor absorption lines centered at 183.31 GHz of the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit module B (AMSU-B) and of the Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS) flying on NOAA-15-18 and NOAA-19Metop-A satellite series, respectively. The characteristics of this algorithm were described in Part I of this paper together with comparisons against analogous precipitation products. The focus of Part II is the analysis of the performance of the 183-WSL technique based on surface radar measurements. The ground truth dataset consists of 2.5 years of rainfall intensity fields from the NIMROD European radar network which covers North-Western Europe. The investigation of the 183-WSL retrieval performance is based on a twofold approach: 1) the dichotomous statistic is used to evaluate the capabilities of the method to identify rain and no-rain clouds; 2) the accuracy statistic is applied to quantify the errors in the estimation of rain rates.The results reveal that the 183-WSL technique shows good skills in the detection of rainno-rain areas and in the quantification of rain rate intensities. The categorical analysis shows annual values of the POD, FAR and HK indices varying in the range 0.80-0.82, 0.330.36 and 0.39-0.46, respectively. The RMSE value is 2.8 millimeters per hour for the whole period despite an overestimation in the retrieved rain rates. Of note is the distribution of the 183-WSL monthly mean rain rate with respect to radar: the seasonal fluctuations of the average rainfalls measured by radar are reproduced by the 183-WSL. However, the retrieval method appears to suffer for the winter seasonal conditions especially when the soil is partially frozen and the surface emissivity drastically changes. This fact is verified observing the discrepancy distribution diagrams where2the 183-WSL performs better during the warm months, while during the winter time the discrepancies with radar measurements tends to maximum values. A stable behavior of the 183-WSL algorithm is demonstrated over the whole study period with an overall overestimation for rain rates intensities lower than 1 millimeter per hour. This threshold is crucial especially in wintertime where the low precipitation regime is difficult to be classified.
The solar wind implants protons into the top 20–30 nm of lunar regolith grains, and the implanted hydrogen will diffuse out of the regolith but also interact with oxygen in the regolith oxides. We apply a statistical approach to estimate the diffusion of hydrogen in the regolith hindered by forming temporary bonds with regolith oxygen atoms. A Monte Carlo simulation was used to track the temporal evolution of bound OH surface content and the H2 exosphere. The model results are consistent with the interpretation of the Chandrayaan‐1 M3 observations of infrared absorption spectra by surface hydroxyls as discussed in Li and Milliken (2017, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1701471). The model reproduced the latitudinal concentration of OH by using a Gaussian energy distribution of f(U(sub 0) = 0.5 eV, U(sub W) = 0.078–0.1 eV) to characterize the activation energy barrier to the diffusion of hydrogen in space weathered regolith. In addition, the model results of the exospheric content of H2 are consistent with observations by the Lyman Alpha Mapping Project on the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter. Therefore, we provide support for hydroxyl formation by chemically trapped solar wind protons.