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At least 127 records · Page 7

Supporting data for Site-specific Design Case Study for Wet Waste Hydrothermal Liquefaction and Biocrude Upgrading to Hydrocarbon Fuels

Hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) is a thermal process that converts wet biomass to renewable hydrocarbon fuel blendstocks (i.e., renewable naphtha, renewable diesel, and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF)). It can utilize a wide range of pure and blended wet feedstocks, including sewage sludge from water resource recovery facilities (WRRF), food and agriculture wastes, algae, fats, oils and greases (FOG) and blends of dry and wet wastes/feedstocks. Historically, techno-economic analysis (TEA) and annual state of technology (SOT) assessments with standard economic assumptions used by the Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) were conducted for the wet waste HTL pathway leveraging experimental data collected from Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s (PNNL) continuous flow reactor systems. The objective of the SOT assessment has been to guide and track progress of BETO’s HTL research and development (R&D) toward reduced cost and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the pathway. However, gaps exist between BETO’s traditional SOT updates and the needs of key external stakeholders that – if addressed – will accelerate technology adoption. This Business Case Study aims to bridge this gap by providing an updated design, TEA, and LCA based on PNNL’s FY23 R&D with added analyses and information that provide enhanced relevance for stakeholders of the HTL technology. This includes specific siting, regional wet waste resource inventory and transportation cost analyses, fuel market information, sustainable fuel policy impacts, economic metrics of net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR), greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions analysis, and statistical analysis of cost and technical uncertainties of the HTL plant design. The study focuses on the “Detroit combined statistical area (CSA)” region for siting of a wet waste HTL plant adjacent to the Great Lakes Water Authority (GLWA) facility with guidance from industry participants. Regional resource and siting analyses were conducted to identify feedstock availability, scale, and cost, as well as a beneficial site location. TEA with detailed rigorous capital cost estimation for the specific site application was conducted to evaluate the key economic metrics of most value to industrial partners. These include total capital investment, operating costs, minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) of the biocrude and fuel blendstock, and NPV and internal rate of return IRR with sustainable fuel credits. Life cycle analysis was conducted to evaluate the supply chain greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the wet waste HTL process as compared with petroleum derived diesel. This study is also informed by years of R&D and process de-risking learnings and was conducted with a basic engineering HTL plant design and costing that akin to a “first-of-a-kind” plant economics. This differs from our conventional “nth plant ” SOT assessments. Specifically, the HTL process model has been updated with more operationally reliable methods for feed heating and phase separations. Further, we have implemented additional spare equipment for redundancy, a more rigorous installed equipment cost estimation approach, and additional costs associated with feed formatting and delivery, building, piping and site development. An Excel-based cost sheet based on the basic engineering design is also released alongside the report that allows users to conduct customized TEA with their own feed composition and financial assumptions.

Li, Shuyun↗

Systems test facilities existing capabilities compilation

Systems test facilities (STFS) to test total photovoltaic systems and their interfaces are described. The systems development (SD) plan is compilation of existing and planned STFs, as well as subsystem and key component testing facilities. It is recommended that the existing capabilities compilation is annually updated to provide and assessment of the STF activity and to disseminate STF capabilities, status and availability to the photovoltaics program.

Weaver, R.↗

Multiple GISS AGCM Hindcasts and MSU Versions of 1979-1998

Multiple realizations of the 1979-1998 time period have been simulated by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Atmospheric General Circulation Model (GISS AGCM) to explore its responsiveness to accumulated forcings, particularly over sensitive agricultural regions. A microwave radiative transfer postprocessor has produced the AGCM's lower tropospheric, tropospheric and lower stratospheric brightness temperature (Tb) time series for correlations with the various Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) time series available. MSU maps of monthly means and anomalies were also used to assess the AGCM's mean annual cycle and regional variability. Seven realizations by the AGCM were forced by observed sea surface temperatures (sst) through 1992 to gather rough standard deviations associated with internal model variability. Subsequent runs hindcast January 1979 through April 1998 with an accumulation of forcings: observed ssts, greenhouse gases, stratospheric volcanic aerosols. stratospheric and tropospheric ozone and tropospheric sulfate and black carbon aerosols. The goal of narrowing gaps between AGCM and MSU time series was complicated by MSU time series, by Tb simulation concerns and by unforced climatic variability in the AGCM and in the real world. Lower stratospheric Tb correlations between the AGCM and MSU for 1979-1998 reached as high as 0.91 +/-0.16 globally with sst, greenhouse gases, volcanic aerosol, stratospheric ozone forcings and tropospheric aerosols. Mid-tropospheric Tb correlations reached as high as 0.66 +/-.04 globally and 0.84 +/-.02 in the tropics. Oceanic lower tropospheric Tb correlations similarly reached 0.61 +/-.06 globally and 0.79 +/-.02 in the tropics. Of the sensitive agricultural areas considered, Nordeste in northeastern Brazil was simulated best with mid-tropospheric Tb correlations up to 0.75 +/- .03. The two other agricultural regions, in Africa and in the northern mid-latitudes, suffered from higher levels of non-sst variability. Zimbabwe had a maximum mid-tropospheric correlation of 0.54 +/- 0.11 while the U.S. Cornbelt had only 0.25 +/- .10. Precipitation and surface temperature performance are also examined over these regions. Correlations of MSU and AGCM time series mostly improved with addition of explicit atmospheric forcings in zonal bands but not in agricultural regional bins each encompassing only six AGCM gridcells.

Shah, Kathryn Pierce↗

Future Nuisance Flooding in Norfolk, VA, From Astronomical Tides and Annual to Decadal Internal Climate Variability

Abstract Increasing sea level rise will lead to more instances of nuisance flooding along the Virginia coastline in the coming decades, causing road closures and deteriorating infrastructure. These minor flood events can be caused by astronomical tides alone, in addition to internal climate variability on annual to decadal timescales. An assessment of nuisance flooding from these two effects is presented up until the year2050 for Norfolk, Virginia. The analysis of water levels indicates that nuisance flooding from tides alone in conjunction with a medium-high sea level scenario will result in flooding beginning in 2030 with frequency increasing thereafter. The addition of climate variability, by use of an empirical mode decomposition, leads to a substantial increase of flooding relative to the tides-alone analysis and shows flood events beginning as soon as 2020. High tides in the future will produce nuisance flooding without the need of other drivers such as coastal storms.

Burgos, A. G.↗

Spatial Distribution of Aerosol Microphysical and Optical Properties and Direct Radiative Effect from the China Aerosol Remote Sensing Network

Multi-year observations of aerosol microphysical and optical properties, obtained through ground-based remote sensing at 50 China Aerosol Remote Sensing Network (CARSNET) sites, were used to characterize the aerosol climatology for representative remote, rural, and urban areas over China to assess effects on climate. The annual mean effective radii for total particles (ReffT) decreased from north to south and from rural to urban sites, and high total particle volumes were found at the urban sites. The aerosol optical depth at 440 nm (AOD440 nm) increased from remote and rural sites (0.12) to urban sites (0.79), and the extinction Ångström exponent (EAE440–870 nm) increased from 0.71 at the arid and semi-arid sites to 1.15 at the urban sites, presumably due to anthropogenic emissions. Single-scattering albedo (SSA440 nm) ranged from 0.88 to 0.92, indicating slightly to strongly absorbing aerosols. Absorption AOD440 nm values were 0.01 at the remote sites versus 0.07 at the urban sites. The average direct aerosol radiative effect (DARE) at the bottom of atmosphere increased from the sites in the remote areas (−24.40 W m−2) to the urban areas (−103.28 W m−2), indicating increased cooling at the latter. The DARE for the top of the atmosphere increased from −4.79 W m−2 at the remote sites to −30.05 W m−2 at the urban sites, indicating overall cooling effects for the Earth–atmosphere system. A classification method based on SSA440 nm, fine-mode fraction (FMF), and EAE440–870 nm showed that coarse-mode particles (mainly dust) were dominant at the rural sites near the northwestern deserts, while light-absorbing, fine-mode particles were important at most urban sites. This study will be important for understanding aerosol climate effects and regional environmental pollution, and the results will provide useful information for satellite validation and the improvement of climate modelling.

Huizheng Che↗

Annual Tropical‐Rainforest Productivity Through Two Decades: Complex Responses to Climatic Factors, [CO 2 ] and Storm Damage

Abstract Yearly changes in tropical carbon‐cycling have been a major biotic determinant of the interannual variation in the rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide ([CO 2 ]). The environmental responses underlying these changes remain poorly understood. A 21‐year field study (1997–2018) in a Costa Rican rainforest has produced the first multi‐decade record of landscape‐scale annual aboveground productivity for a tropical ecosystem. While none of the four production components (wood production; leaf‐, twig‐, and reproductive litterfall) increased over two decades, all significantly varied among years. Multi‐factor environmental models explained a large fraction of the inter‐year changes in two production components. Annual changes in three climatic factors and [CO 2 ] jointly accounted for 84% of the variation in annual wood production. While the strongest response of wood production was to decline in years of slightly warmer nights, it also significantly declined in years with more dry‐season hours hotter than 28°C. The yearly changes in reproductive litterfall were largely (52%) determined by the combined effects of increasing [CO 2 ] and declining annual radiation. Twig litterfall declined over the 21 years. Annual leaf litterfall, the largest component of field‐assessed aboveground production, showed no significant environmental responses. An extreme storm in the study's final year disrupted the environmental controls on production that prevailed through the prior 20 years. While important uncertainties are introduced by some of the field methods for assessing aboveground forest production, the findings of this first long‐term field study of annual landscape‐scale productivity raise deep concerns for the future of tropical forests as global warming proceeds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Uncertainty-Driven Rapid Thermodynamic Assessment of Nb-Ta-Zr System and Effects of C impurities (L25GF9298S): Annual Progress Report

An integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) method is in development for rapid thermodynamic experimental investigation and high-fidelity computational modeling of refractory multi-principal element alloys (RMPEAs). These ultra-high-temperature (UHT) alloys are of interest for structural applications in extreme environments, but deficiency of reliable data, especially melting temperatures, impedes the prediction of alloys with favorable properties. The method leverages UHT capabilities and computational expertise of LLNL’s Materials Science Division and the McCormack Lab’s UHT conical nozzle levitation (CNL) system to iteratively map the Nb-Ta-Zr phase space, with focus on the liquidus surface, through targeted experiments selected by quantifying uncertainty in the thermodynamic model fitting parameters. This method will reduce the time to map uncharted RMPEA phase space and thereby accelerate discovery and development of advanced materials for applications in extreme environments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Study of Energy Saving Analysis for Different Industries

This study analyzes the energy consumption and saving performance in the industries in the U.S.A. All energy assessments implemented were for facilities whose annual energy consumptions were less than 9,000,000 kWh (small- and medium-sized industries) that belong to the manufacturing industries with Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) codes ranging from 2000 to 3999 in addition to SIC codes starting with 49. In this study, assessments are classified based on the SIC codes with recommendations analysis for each classification to get a better idea of what recommendations were suggested in each major industrial sector, knowing that 68 assessments were made, and their SIC ranged from 14 to 49. In addition, this study could be considered as a guide for energy engineers and other personnel involved in the energy assessment process. The information investigated can give a better prediction for composing better energy-demanding industries and minimizing energy consumption. More than 61 energy assessments were conducted for manufacturing facilities and analyzing the data gathered and processed. Through the research, the Fabricated Metal industry achieved the highest average kWh savings and cost savings within the industries studied in this study. According to the average gigajoule (GJ) savings, the fabricated metal industry ranked second within the studied industries. Conversely, Food and Kindred Products achieved the highest GJ energy savings within the studied industries. Overall, lighting, motors, compressors, and heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) were the most contributing industries in a total of 547 recommendations.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Wilson Corners Solid Waste Management Unit (SWMU) 001: 2021 Annual Long-Term Monitoring Report, Kennedy Space Center, Florida

This report presents a summary of the long-term monitoring (LTM) activities that occurred in 2021 at Wilson Corners, Solid Waste Management Unit (SWMU) 001, at Kennedy Space Center (KSC), Florida. The site is monitored under KSC’s Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) Corrective Action Program. Adaptive site management is being utilized through ongoing assessment, design, and interim measures (IM). Annual LTM of the groundwater is also being conducted at the site. This approach also meets the requirements of Chapter 62-780, Florida Administrative Code (F.A.C.). The goal of LTM at this site is threefold: to determine groundwater flow characteristics, monitor the downgradient concentration trends, and monitor select locations internal to the groundwater plume. Every 5 years, upgradient and side-gradient monitoring wells are sampled to verify delineation. The last time this was performed was in 2015. The sampling of these wells in 2020 was replaced with the direct push technology (DPT) investigations completed in October 2020 and April 2021. This DPT groundwater data was presented in an Advance Data Package (ADP) in September 2021 and discussed in the Implementation Work Plan (IWP) dated November 2021 for installation of an air sparge (AS) system. Based on results from groundwater sampling activities performed during the previous reporting period, including the 2020 and 2021 DPT groundwater sampling, it was determined that the LTM sampling plan was no longer meeting the goal of LTM because delineation was not verified. The 2021 LTM sampling plan was modified to include the sampling of monitoring wells located around the perimeter of the low concentration plume (LCP); the area with concentrations of contaminants of concern [COCs] greater than Groundwater Cleanup Target Levels [GCTLs]), and sampling of 10 monitoring wells proposed for installation (April 2021 KSC Remediation Team (KSCRT) Meeting, Decision 2104-D32). The modified LTM plan received team consensus at the September 2021 KSCRT Meeting (Decision Number 2109-D03), and sampling of the existing monitoring wells was completed in December 2021. The proposed monitoring wells are planned for installation in late 2022, concurrent with ongoing IM construction activities. December 2021 LTM data was presented at the May 2022 KSCRT Meeting, and activities are summarized in this report. The activities presented in this report include the December 2021 groundwater gauging of 42 monitoring wells and sampling of 44 monitoring wells. During the December 2021 event, the low flow sampling method was used, and samples were analyzed for a select list of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), including 1,1,2-trichloro-1,2,2-trifluoroethane (Freon 113). The following conclusions can be made based on the 2021 LTM results: - In December 2021, groundwater flow for the site was generally to the west at all intervals. This is generally consistent with historical observations at the site, with the exception of a southwest and southeast flow component observed at 34 to 48 feet below land surface (bls). - The vertical extent of VOCs was historically delineated by monitoring wells screened greater than 48 feet bls. The results from the two vertical extent monitoring wells, WILC-MW0078 (screened 65 to 70 feet bls) and WILC-MW0130 (screened 56 to 66 feet bls) that were sampled during the 2021 LTM indicate that groundwater vinyl chloride (VC) concentrations in both wells were greater than the GCTL. The Remediation Team has previously agreed to delay deeper DPT investigations in this area to prevent the creation of additional pathways for vertical migration. - The LCP continues to extend both horizontally, predominantly to the west, and vertically beyond the current monitoring well network, with some retraction observed to the southeast. Evaluation of this data combined with data from the 2020 and 2021 DPT sampling event indicate that the LCP encompasses an estimated 20.7 acres based on an expanded sampling area, as compared to the 2020 LCP footprint of 17.0 acres. - Freon 113 was not detected above GCTLs during the 2021 LTM event. Based on groundwater sampling activities performed in 2021, including April 2021 DPT groundwater sampling, the following recommendations are provided: - Perform the next LTM sampling event, targeted to occur in 2023, concurrently with the IM baseline sampling prior to AS system installation; - Include sampling from nine monitoring wells that are planned to be installed in late 2022, concurrent with upcoming IM construction activities. Installation of one deep vertical well, screened 70 to 80 feet bls, will be delayed to prevent the creation of an additional pathway for vertical migration; - Continue to sample under the modified annual LTM plan as presented in Table 4-1 concurrently with IM baseline sampling; and - Once the AS system install and start-up is complete, select monitoring wells from the LTM program will transition into the performance monitoring plan, and LTM will be temporarily discontinued. Performance monitoring will be performed quarterly, and the monitoring well network will be evaluated following the first performance monitoring sampling event.

long-term monitoring (LTM)↗

Excessive radon-based radiation in indoor air caused by soil building materials in traditional homes on Đồng Văn karst plateau, northern Vietnam

Radon-based radiation from natural soil building materials is an important factor likely influencing residents’ health as a contributing source of natural radiation. This work aims to quantify the nuclide-specific α-radiation of isotopes 222 Rn and 220 Rn in common types of houses in a region of northern Vietnam, Ɖông Văn karst plateau, to preliminarily (i) evaluate the total annual effective dose rates and (ii) assess the relative risk of cancer induction from indoor α-radiation for inhabitants. The average 222 Rn concentrations in all house types were lower than 100 Bq m -3 , but 220 Rn abundances were far higher than 222 Rn, even up to >1000 Bq m -3 in air close to a wall of unfired-soil bricks. The estimated total annual effective dose rates from indoor 222 Rn and 220 Rn and their progenies to residents with daily exposure of 13 h in the various types of houses range from 3.1 to 4.3 mSv a -1 for houses constructed with modified materials, but up to higher than 6 mSv a -1 in houses with raw building materials. The average risk of developing lung cancer as a consequence of a lifetime exposure to indoor α-radiation in affected homes ranges from 3.9% to 14.6%. 220 Rn and its metallic progenies contribute more than 80% of the total average lung cancer risk from total radon, being responsible for a range of 2.7–14.6% of the risk of developing lung cancer.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Performance Assessment for the Disposal of Low Level Waste in the 200 East Area Burial Grounds (FY2019 Annual Status Report)

This annual review provides the projected dose estimates of radionuclide inventories disposed in the 200 East Area Low-Level Waste Burial Grounds (LLBGs) since September 26, 1988. These estimates are calculated using the original dose methodology developed in the performance assessment (PA) analysis (WHC-SD-WM-TI-730) and are compared with U.S. Department of Energy requirements (DOE O 435.1 and performance objectives defined in companion documents DOE M 435.1 and DOE-STD-5002-2017). All performance objectives are currently satisfied, and operational waste acceptance criteria (HNF-EP-0063) and waste acceptance practices continue to be sufficient to maintain compliance with performance objectives. Inventory estimates and associated dose estimates from future waste disposal actions are unchanged from previous years’ evaluations, indicating that potential impacts are well below performance objectives; therefore, future compliance with DOE O 435.1 is expected. A new PA study has been initiated in this fiscal year (FY) 2019 for evaluation of active disposal sites within the 200 West and East Areas (Trenches 31 and 34 in 200 West; Trench 94 in 200 East) because extended time has elapsed between the current annual status report and the original PA (WHC-SD-WM-TI-370) for the active disposal sites. The new PA for the active disposal sites is expected to be completed in FY 2021.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Performance Assessment for the Disposal of Low-Level Waste in the 200 East Area Burial Grounds (Annual Status Report FY 2022)

This annual review provides the projected dose estimates of radionuclide inventories disposed in the 200 East Area Low-Level Waste Burial Grounds (LLBGs) since September 26, 1988. These estimates are calculated using the original dose methodology developed in the performance assessment (PA) analysis (WHC-SD-WM-TI-730). The estimates are compared with the performance objectives defined in U.S. Department of Energy requirements (DOE O 435.1 and its companion documents DOE M 435.1-1 and DOE-STD-5002-2017). All performance objectives are currently satisfied, and operational waste acceptance criteria (HNF-EP-0063) and waste acceptance practices continue to be sufficient to maintain compliance with performance objectives. Inventory estimates and associated dose estimates from future waste disposal actions are unchanged from previous years’ evaluations that indicate potential impacts well below performance objectives; therefore, future compliance with DOE O 435.1 is expected.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Performance Assessment for the Disposal of Low Level Waste in the 200 West Area Burial Grounds (FY2019 Annual Statius Report)

This annual review provides the projected dose estimates of radionuclide inventories disposed in the active 200 West Area Low-Level Waste Burial Grounds (LLBGs) since September 26, 1988. These estimates are calculated using the original dose methodology developed in the performance assessment (PA) analysis (WHC-EP-0645) and are compared with performance objectives defined in U.S. Department of Energy requirements (DOE O 435.1 and its companion documents DOE M 435.1-1 and DOE-STD-5002-2017). All performance objectives are currently satisfied, and operational waste acceptance criteria (HNF-EP-0063) and waste acceptance practices continue to be sufficient to maintain compliance with performance objectives. Inventory estimates and associated dose estimates from future waste disposal actions are unchanged from previous years’ evaluations, indicating that potential impacts are well below performance objectives; therefore, future compliance with DOE O 435.1 is expected.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Performance Assessment for the Disposal of Low-Level Waste in the 200 West Area Burial Grounds (Annual Status Report FY 2022)

This annual review provides the projected dose estimates of radionuclide inventories disposed in the active 200 West Area Low-Level Waste Burial Grounds (LLBGs) since September 26, 1988. These estimates are calculated using the original dose methodology developed in the performance assessment (PA) analysis (WHC-EP-0645). The estimates are compared with the performance objectives defined in U.S. Department of Energy requirements (DOE O 435.1 and its companion documents DOE M 435.1-1 and DOE-STD-5002-2017). All performance objectives are currently satisfied, and operational waste acceptance criteria (HNF-EP-0063) and waste acceptance practices continue to be sufficient to maintain compliance with performance objectives. Inventory estimates and associated dose estimates from future waste disposal actions are unchanged from previous years’ evaluations that indicate potential impacts well below performance objectives; therefore, future compliance with DOE O 435.1 is expected. Within the active burial grounds, low-level and mixed low-level waste currently may be disposed only in two lined trenches in the 218-W-5 Burial Ground (Trenches 31 and 34) until they are either filled or a decision is made to close these trenches. Some mixed low-level waste is also disposed at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility in the 200 West Area (which is covered under a separate PA). During this (fiscal year 2022) reporting period (October 1, 2021, through September 30, 2022), waste was disposed to the 200 West Area LLBGs. Continued groundwater monitoring of the 200 West Area LLBGs indicates no groundwater contamination due to LLBG waste. Current assumptions about future land use at the Hanford Site are consistent with PA analysis assumptions of a postclosure facility that will not be degraded by human activity. The LLBGs are in an area identified for waste management and containment of residual contamination (DOE/EIS-0391). The current closure plan for the LLBGs (DOE/RL-2000-70) estimates that the 200 West LLBGs will be closed in the 2050 timeframe. The Disposal Authorization Statement, other technical basis documents, and the radioactive waste management basis are of continued adequacy to meet the performance objectives of DOE O 435.1. Overall, there are no substantive changes to primary PA assumptions and no changes to the PA analysis conclusion; therefore, compliance with DOE O 435.1 and the Disposal Authorization Statement is maintained. A new PA to evaluate the long-term impacts of three disposal trenches that are currently active within the 200 East and 200 West Areas (Trench 94 in the 200 East Area and Trenches 31 and 34 in the 200 West Area) was initiated in fiscal year 2019 and completed in fiscal year 2022. Corrective actions addressing 3 key issues and 31 secondary issues identified during the review process were developed and submitted to the Low-Level Waste Disposal Facility Federal Review Group Co-Chairs for review and approval. This PA provides additional technical basis for the continued adequacy of the existing Operating Disposal Authorization Statement.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Performance Assessment for the Disposal of Low-Level Waste in the 200 West Area Burial Grounds (Annual Status Report FY 2021)

This annual review provides the projected dose estimates of radionuclide inventories disposed in the active 200 West Area Low-Level Waste Burial Grounds (LLBGs) since September 26, 1988. These estimates are calculated using the original dose methodology developed in the performance assessment (PA) analysis (WHC-EP-0645). The estimates are compared with the performance objectives defined in U.S. Department of Energy requirements (DOE O 435.1 and its companion documents DOE M 435.1-1 and DOE-STD-5002-2017). All performance objectives are currently satisfied, and operational waste acceptance criteria (HNF-EP-0063). and waste acceptance practices continue to be sufficient to maintain compliance with performance objectives. Inventory estimates and associated dose estimates from future waste disposal actions are unchanged from previous years’ evaluations that indicate potential impacts well below performance objectives; therefore, future compliance with DOE O 435.1 is expected.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Energy Surplus and an Atmosphere‐Land‐Surface “Tug of War” Control Future Evapotranspiration

Abstract The 21st century evapotranspiration (ET) trends over the continental U.S. are assessed using innovative, energy‐based principles. Annual ET is projected to increase with high confidence at the rate of 20 mm for every 1℃ of rise in near‐surface air temperature, or 0.45 or 0.98 mm/year/year, depending on the emission scenario. The ET trajectory is dominated (58%) by the increase of land‐surface net radiative energy. An enhancement of the fraction of energy taken up by ET becomes a more important controller (53%) in late 21st century, under the high emission scenario. This increase is explained by the “tug of war” between atmospheric vapor demand and land‐surface ability to supply water. An assessment of future water availability (precipitation minus ET) shows no significant changes at the continental scale. This outcome nevertheless hides strong spatial variability, emphasizing the role of ET in shaping the distribution of water availability among human populations.

Xu, Donghui↗

Economic Impact Assessments (EIA) of application of GEOGLOWS in Ecuador: Data Gaps, Limitations and Recommendations

In 2022, the United Nations launched the Early Warnings for All (EW4ALL) Program to establish global early warning systems by 2027. To assess the impact of the substantial $3.1 billion annual investment over five years, EW4ALL will consider factors that will require national coordination for the data needed for these assessments. In 2023, Ecuador was identified as one of the world's most climate-vulnerable countries, emphasizing the need to enhance its early warning systems. In 2020, the SERVIR Amazonia hub implemented the GEOGLOWS streamflow forecast service in collaboration with Ecuador's national meteorological agency (INAMHI). GEOGloWS provides 15-day ensemble forecasts and 80 years of historical streamflow data for every river worldwide through a free web service. The World Meteorological Organization has recognized this initiative as essential in contributing to the UN's call to ensure an 'Early Warning for All' by 2027. In 2023, as part of NASA's continuous efforts to fund research for Policy-Relevant Implementations, an economic impact assessment (EIA) was performed to understand the potential socioeconomic benefits of Early streamflow predictions in Ecuador using the GEOGLOWS service. Preliminary findings highlighted that gaps remain in effectively integrating socioeconomic and Earth observation (EO) data to capture the total value of these predictions. Implementing GEOGLOWS has led to valuable hydrological forecasts; however, the total economic benefits have yet to be documented. This study addresses the gaps and makes recommendations for future work that should focus on capturing the socio-economic benefits and costs associated with these forecasts, including their impact on decision-making at national and local levels. Despite the daily use of GEOGLOWS by key figures, including the President of Ecuador, the need for comprehensive recommendations and assessments is urgent.

Reetwika Basu↗