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DOE OSTI2026

On High-Temperature Dynamometer Test Stand Development

RePED is a novel prototype alternator that has been designed and built to operate at 35 kW under 250 degrees C ambient temperature conditions. The operating efficiency will be measured using a 225-kW motor to drive the machine in a back-to-back configuration. The goal is to determine if the RePED alternator can deliver 35 kW at a rotational speed of 1,000 rpm while operating in 250 degrees C ambient temperature and have a minimum efficiency of 60%. Dynamometer testing of a high-temperature alternator for geothermal drilling presents several unique challenges, especially around maintaining and managing the various sources and types of energy passing through the system without impacting data quality. The objectives of this report are to (1) describe the test stand in detail, the relative orientation of each major component, and the data acquisition system and (2) discuss the behavior of the test stand components such that this report can serve as a reference document for future projects.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

The seventh blind test of crystal structure prediction: structure ranking methods

A seventh blind test of crystal structure prediction has been organized by the Cambridge Crystallographic Data Centre. The results are presented in two parts, with this second part focusing on methods for ranking crystal structures in order of stability. The exercise involved standardized sets of structures seeded from a range of structure generation methods. Participants from 22 groups applied several periodic DFT-D methods, machine learned potentials, force fields derived from empirical data or quantum chemical calculations, and various combinations of the above. In addition, one non-energy-based scoring function was used. Results showed that periodic DFT-D methods overall agreed with experimental data within expected error margins, while one machine learned model, applying system-specific AIMnet potentials, agreed with experiment in many cases demonstrating promise as an efficient alternative to DFT-based methods. For target XXXII, a consensus was reached across periodic DFT methods, with consistently high predicted energies of experimental forms relative to the global minimum (above 4 kJ mol −1 at both low and ambient temperatures) suggesting a more stable polymorph is likely not yet observed. The calculation of free energies at ambient temperatures offered improvement of predictions only in some cases (for targets XXVII and XXXI). Several avenues for future research have been suggested, highlighting the need for greater efficiency considering the vast amounts of resources utilized in many cases.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2021

Abundance of spring‐ and winter‐active arthropods declines with warming

Abstract Because ectotherm activity and metabolism are sensitive to temperature, terrestrial arthropods may be especially responsive to ongoing climatic warming. Here, we quantified responses of arthropod abundance to two years of warming in an outdoor temperature manipulation experiment at Duke Forest, North Carolina, USA. Nine open‐top chambers were individually heated year‐round from 1.5° to 5.5°C above ambient temperature. From two years of monthly pitfall trapping, we collected and identified 4,468 arthropods representing 24 orders. We initially predicted that arthropods would experience the greatest negative effects of experimental warming during the summer months, when temperatures reach their yearly maximum and arthropods may be close to their maximum thermal tolerance limits. Instead, we found that the strongest negative effects on arthropod abundance occurred during the winter and spring, when ambient temperatures are relatively cooler, whereas the effects of experimental warming on abundance were not significant during the summer or fall. During the spring of 2012, the warmest spring on record for the southeastern USA, total arthropod abundance declined 20% per °C of experimental warming. Abundance declines were driven largely by flies (Diptera), which were the most abundant insect order, representing approximately a third of all arthropods collected. The most abundant arthropod family, Mycetophilidae (fungus gnats), declined 64% per °C of warming during the spring of 2012. Although previous research on climatic warming has focused on the impact of maximum yearly temperatures on organismal performance, our results are more consistent with the cool‐season sensitivity hypothesis, which posits that arthropods adapted for cooler conditions are likely to face the strongest negative effects of warming during the cooler seasons.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Frequency-domain hot-wire sensor and 3D model for thermal conductivity measurements of reactive and corrosive materials at high temperatures

High temperature solids and liquids are becoming increasingly important in next-generation energy and manufacturing systems that seek higher efficiencies and lower emissions. Accurate measurements of thermal conductivity at high temperatures are required for the modeling and design of these systems, but commonly employed time-domain measurements can have errors from convection, corrosion, and ambient temperature fluctuations. Here, we describe the development of a frequency-domain hot-wire technique capable of accurately measuring the thermal conductivity of solid and molten compounds from room temperature up to 800 °C. Therefore, by operating in the frequency-domain, we can lock into the harmonic thermal response of the material and reject the influence of ambient temperature fluctuations, and we can keep the probed volume below 1 µl to minimize convection. The design of the microfabricated hot-wire sensor, electrical systems, and insulating wire coating to protect against corrosion is covered in detail. Furthermore, we discuss the development of a full three-dimensional multilayer thermal model that accounts for both radial conduction into the sample and axial conduction along the wire and the effect of wire coatings. The 3D, multilayer model facilitates the measurement of small sample volumes important for material development. A sensitivity analysis and an error propagation calculation of the frequency-domain thermal model are performed to demonstrate what factors are most important for thermal conductivity measurements. Finally, we show thermal conductivity measurements including model data fitting on gas (argon), solid (sulfur), and molten substances over a range of temperatures.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Best Practices for Body Temperature Measurement with Infrared Thermography: External Factors Affecting Accuracy

Infrared thermographs (IRTs) are commonly used during disease pandemics to screen individuals with elevated body temperature (EBT). To address the limited research on external factors affecting IRT accuracy, we conducted benchtop measurements and computer simulations with two IRTs, with or without an external temperature reference source (ETRS) for temperature compensation. The combination of an IRT and an ETRS forms a screening thermograph (ST). We investigated the effects of viewing angle (θ, 0–75°), ETRS set temperature (T ETRS , 30–40 °C), ambient temperature (T atm , 18–32 °C), relative humidity (RH, 15–80%), and working distance (d, 0.4–2.8 m). We discovered that STs exhibited higher accuracy compared to IRTs alone. Across the tested ranges of T atm and RH, both IRTs exhibited absolute measurement errors of less than 0.97 °C, while both STs maintained absolute measurement errors of less than 0.12 °C. The optimal T ETRS for EBT detection was 36–37 °C. When θ was below 30°, the two STs underestimated calibration source (CS) temperature (T CS ) of less than 0.05 °C. The computer simulations showed absolute temperature differences of up to 0.28 °C and 0.04 °C between estimated and theoretical temperatures for IRTs and STs, respectively, considering d of 0.2–3.0 m, T atm of 15–35 °C, and RH of 5–95%. The results highlight the importance of precise calibration and environmental control for reliable temperature readings and suggest proper ranges for these factors, aiming to enhance current standard documents and best practice guidelines. These insights enhance our understanding of IRT performance and their sensitivity to various factors, thereby facilitating the development of best practices for accurate EBT measurement.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Dynamic Tensile Characterization of Thin-Sheet Brittle Metallic Materials

Refractory metals are favorable materials in applications where high strength and ductility are needed at elevated temperatures. In some cases, operating temperatures may be near the melting point of the material. However, as temperature drops, refractory metals typically undergo a significant mechanical response change - ductile-to-brittle transition. These materials may be subjected to high strain rate loading at an ambient temperature state, such as an impact or crash. Knowledge of the high rate material properties are essential for design as well as simulation of impact events. The high rate stress-strain behavior of brittle metallic materials at ambient temperature is rarely studied because of experimental challenges, particularly when failure is involved. Failure typically occurs within the non-gage section of the material, which invalidates any collected stress-strain information. Here, a method to determine a specimen geometry which will produce failures in the gage section is presented. Pure tungsten in thin-sheet form was used as a trial material to select a specimen geometry for high rate Kolsky tension bar experiments. A finite element simulation was conducted to derive a strain correction for more accurate results. The room temperature stress-strain behavior of pure tungsten at a strain rate of 24 s –1 is presented. The outcome of this experimental technique can be applied to other brittle materials for dynamic tensile characterization.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Experimental study of a tri-functional propane hydronic heat pump

This study investigates the performance of a propane hydronic heat pump system for space cooling, heating, and water heating applications, focusing on various operational conditions, with a total refrigerant charge below 1200 g. Cooling performance was evaluated at different outdoor temperatures, compressor stages (capacity levels), and water flow rates. The results showed that the coefficient of performance (COP) for cooling was higher at lower outdoor temperatures, with peak values exceeding 5.0 under low-stage operation and lower water flow rate. The cooling capacity increased with higher flow rates and compressor stages, reaching 12 kW. Space heating performance, evaluated at ambient temperatures ranging from −8.3 °C to 16.7 °C, revealed a decrease in COP with lower temperatures. However, high-stage operation maintained higher heating capacities even at low temperatures. The system demonstrated high Heating Seasonal Performance Factors (HSPF), exceeding 10.0. For water heating, the COP decreased with lower ambient temperatures and higher supply water temperatures. The system efficiently heated an 189-L water tank, outperforming conventional water heaters, with process COPs exceeding 4.0 under cooling-season conditions. Despite some efficiency loss due to defrosting at low temperatures, the propane heat pump consistently delivered strong performance. Seasonal energy efficiency ratios (SEER) and seasonal heating COP values indicated significant overall efficiency. The study concludes that propane is a promising refrigerant for heat pump systems, with future research needed to future reduce total system charge and optimize system performance through advanced controls and heat exchanger designs.

Hu, Yifeng [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000242875185)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Exergy Analysis of a Convective Heat Pump Dryer Integrated with a Membrane Energy Recovery Ventilator

To increase energy efficiency, heat pump dryers and membrane dryers have been proposed to replace conventional fossil fuel dryers. Both conventional and heat pump dryers require substantial energy for condensing and reheating, while “active” membrane systems require vacuum pumps that are insufficiently developed. Lower temperature dehumidification systems make efficient use of membrane energy recovery ventilators (MERVs) that do not need vacuum pumps, but their high heat losses and lack of vapor selectivity have prevented their use in industrial drying. In this work, we propose an insulating membrane energy recovery ventilator for moisture removal from drying exhaust air, thereby reducing sensible heat loss from the dehumidification process and reheating energy. The second law analysis of the proposed system is carried out and compared with a baseline convective heat pump dryer. Irreversibilities in each component under different ambient temperatures (5–35 °C) and relative humidity (5–95%) are identified. At an ambient temperature of 35 °C, the proposed system substantially reduces sensible heat loss (47–60%) in the dehumidification process, resulting in a large reduction in condenser load (45–50%) compared to the baseline system. The evaporator in the proposed system accounts for up to 59% less irreversibility than the baseline system. A maximum of 24.5% reduction in overall exergy input is also observed. The highest exergy efficiency of 10.2% is obtained at an ambient condition of 35 °C and 5% relative humidity, which is more than twice the efficiency of the baseline system under the same operating condition.

Balaraman, Anand (ORCID:0000000218355788)↗

DOE OSTI2022

Experimental investigation of low velocity and high temperature solid particle impact erosion wear

Next generation Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) plants utilizing solid particles as the heat transfer medium (HTM) are expected to achieve greater operational efficiencies. However, the erosion from the solid particles can cause significant damage to component materials. Low particle speeds (1–2 m/s) are proposed as a means of preventing excessive damage to containment materials. Within the current investigation, solid particle erosion of three potential containment materials, stainless-steel grade 316L, a nickel alloy (Inconel 740H), and a refractory material (Tufcrete 60 M), are examined at a particle impact speed of 1.6 m/s. CarboBead-HSP 40/70 particles, a candidate HTM for CSP systems, impact the specimens at a relatively high impact angle of 60° based on containment design criteria. Experiments were conducted at ambient temperature and 800 °C to examine erosion of the materials at very low impact speeds and determine how temperature effects erosion. Initial results revealed surprising outcomes inconsistent with available literature: ambient temperature erosion of SS316L is an order of magnitude lower than IN740H, but erosion (erosion-corrosion) of SS316L at 800 °C surpasses IN740H by two orders of magnitude. Furthermore, results suggest removal of oxide layers (erosion-corrosion) is responsible for the significant erosion that was observed even at these low particle speeds.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Thermally unstable roosts influence winter torpor patterns in a threatened bat species

Abstract Many hibernating bats in thermally stable, subterranean roosts have experienced precipitous declines from white-nose syndrome (WNS). However, some WNS-affected species also use thermally unstable roosts during winter that may impact their torpor patterns and WNS susceptibility. From November to March 2017–19, we used temperature-sensitive transmitters to document winter torpor patterns of tricolored bats (Perimyotis subflavus) using thermally unstable roosts in the upper Coastal Plain of South Carolina. Daily mean roost temperature was 12.9 ± 4.9°C SD in bridges and 11.0 ± 4.6°C in accessible cavities with daily fluctuations of 4.8 ± 2°C in bridges and 4.0 ± 1.9°C in accessible cavities and maximum fluctuations of 13.8 and 10.5°C, respectively. Mean torpor bout duration was 2.7 ± 2.8 days and was negatively related to ambient temperature and positively related to precipitation. Bats maintained non-random arousal patterns focused near dusk and were active on 33.6% of tracked days. Fifty-one percent of arousals contained passive rewarming. Normothermic bout duration, general activity and activity away from the roost were positively related to ambient temperature, and activity away from the roost was negatively related to barometric pressure. Our results suggest ambient weather conditions influence winter torpor patterns of tricolored bats using thermally unstable roosts. Short torpor bout durations and potential nighttime foraging during winter by tricolored bats in thermally unstable roosts contrasts with behaviors of tricolored bats in thermally stable roosts. Therefore, tricolored bat using thermally unstable roosts may be less susceptible to WNS. More broadly, these results highlight the importance of understanding the effect of roost thermal stability on winter torpor patterns and the physiological flexibility of broadly distributed hibernating species.

Biodiversity & Conservation↗

DOE OSTI2020

IDENTIFICATION OF ADSORBA TION OF ADSORBATE FT-IR BANDS USING IN-SI -IR BANDS USING IN-SITU TECHNIQUES: Pd SPECIATION AND ADSORPTION CHEMISTRY OF Pd-ZEOLITES FOR PASSIVE NOx ADSORPTION

To meet increasingly stringent automotive emissions standards, further improvements in catalytic converter design are necessary. Current automotive catalyst systems are effective at eliminating emission of nitrogen oxides (NOx) once the catalyst reaches operational temperature (~200 °C). NOx emitted at lower catalyst temperatures now comprises most of the NOx released during a typical test cycle. Referred to as “the cold start problem” this issue has come to the forefront of automotive catalyst development, as mitigating these emissions is necessary to further reduce automotive emissions. Passive NOx adsorbers present an appealing solution to the cold start problem, these being a class of materials that chemisorb exhaust components such as NOx, carbon monoxide (CO) and hydrocarbons at near-ambient temperatures, and then desorb these compounds once the downstream catalyst has reached operational temperature. An effective passive NOx adsorber must have several properties: high NOx adsorption at near-ambient temperatures, near-complete NOx desorption at temperatures within the operational range, high thermal stability, and resistance to automotive exhaust components at high temperatures. The potential environmental impact of such a system is substantial, as NOx emissions currently result in the formation of millions of tons of smog and acid rain each year. Pd-exchanged zeolites have shown promise for deployment as Passive NOx adsorbers, though much remains to be understood about their adsorption chemistry and deactivation. In-situ Diffuse Reflectance Infrared Fourier Transform Spectroscopy (DRIFTS) provides a convenient probe of adsorbed species, most automotive exhaust components possessing IR-active chemical bonds. By examining the evolution of IR bands under various pretreatments and adsorbates, the overall Pd-speciation and adsorptive zeolite sites of each material can be characterized, and the identities of IR bands can be deduced. In this work, microreactor-MS analysis of the adsorption and desorption behavior of these materials was also examined, these results being coupled with in-situ DRIFTS temperature programmed desorption (TPD) to correlate desorption events with specific adsorbed species. A pair of zeolite frameworks of similar Si/Al ratio but differing pore size were examined, Beta zeolite (BEA) and Chabazite (CHA) representing a medium- and small-pore framework, respectively. The effect of Pd-loading on BEA was examined, as well as the various deactivation pathways and active sites of each material.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Radiation-induced molecular hydrogen gas generation in the presence of aluminum alloy 1100

The United States government currently manages nearly 13 metric tons of aluminum-clad spent nuclear fuel (SNF) without a long-term storage solution, so a fundamental understanding of corrosion processes occurring on aluminum alloy surfaces is of utmost importance to plan for extended (>50 years) interim dry storage of aluminum-clad SNF. While thermal and chemical corrosion processes are well characterized for aluminum, radiation effects are not. To help understand the impacts of radiation on aluminum-clad SNF, here the radiation-induced molecular hydrogen gas (H 2 ) generation from pristine and pre-corroded aluminum alloy 1100 (Al-1100) coupons have been studied. Corrosion of coupons was achieved by submerging coupons in water at 95 °C for 29 days, yielding a ~5 μm boehmite/bayerite oxide film. Pre-corroded coupons were exposed to cobalt-60 gamma radiation to absorbed doses of up to 1.0 MGy under a variety of conditions: cover-gas composition (argon, nitrogen, or air), relative humidity (0, 50, and 100%), and temperature (ambient, 100, and 200 °C). Post-irradiation measurements demonstrated that the yield of H 2 was directly attributable to the presence of the Al-1100 coupons and their physisorbed water with dependence on absorbed gamma dose, relative humidity, and cover-gas composition. No H 2 was quantified in the presence of air, while both nitrogen and argon environments afforded higher H 2 yields with increasing relative humidities. This was attributed to the greater availability of adsorbed water for radiolytic processes. Irradiation of pre-corroded Al-1100 coupons at different temperatures under 0% relative humidity argon conditions yielded statistically equivalent H 2 yields for ambient temperatures and 100 °C. However, irradiation at 200 °C promoted a 3 to 4-fold increase in the yield of H 2 , possibly due to the transformation of bayerite to boehmite and/or improved efficiency of H • and H 2 release from oxide surfaces.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

The EGS Collab Project – Stimulations at Two Depths

The EGS Collab project, supported by the US Department of Energy, is performing intensively monitored rock stimulation and flow tests at the 10-m scale in an underground research laboratory to address challenges in implementing enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Data and observations from the field tests are compared to simulations to understand processes and build confidence in numerical modeling of the processes. We have completed Experiment 1 (of 3), which examined hydraulic fracturing in a well-characterized underground fractured phyllite test bed at a depth of approximately 1.5 km at the Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF) in Lead, South Dakota. Testbed characterization included fracture mapping, borehole acoustic and optical televiewers, full waveform sonic, conductivity, resistivity, temperature, campaign p- and s-wave investigations and electrical resistance tomography. Borehole geophysical techniques including passive seismic, continuous active source seismic monitoring, electrical resistance tomography, fiber-based distributed strain, distributed temperature, and distributed acoustic monitoring, were used to carefully monitor stimulation events and flow tests. More than a dozen stimulations and nearly one year of flow tests were performed. Quality data and detailed observations were collected and analyzed during stimulation and water flow tests using ambient temperature and chilled water. We achieved adaptive control of the tests using real-time monitoring and rapid dissemination of data and near-real-time simulation. More detailed numerical simulation was performed to answer key experimental design questions, forecast fracture propagation trajectories and extents, and analyze and evaluate results. Data are freely available from the Geothermal Data Repository. Experiment 2 examines the potential for hydraulic shearing in amphibolite at a depth of about 1.25 km at SURF. This site has a different set of stress and fracture conditions than Experiment 1. The Experiment 2 testbed consists of nine subhorizontal boreholes configured in two fans of two boreholes which surround the testbed and contain grouted-in electrical resistance tomography, seismic sensors, active seismic sources and distributed fiber sensors. A “five-spot” set of test wells that extends from a custom mined alcove includes an injection well and four production/monitoring wells. The testbed was characterized geophysically and hydrologically, and three stimulations have been performed using the Step-Rate Injection Method for Fracture In-Situ Properties (SIMFIP) tool to measure strains, and a new strain quantifying tool (downhole robotic strain analysis tool -DORSA) was deployed in a monitoring hole during stimulation. Real-time data were broadcast during stimulations to allow real-time response to arising issues.

EGS Collab, Enhanced Geothermal Systems, EGS, fiel↗

DOE OSTI2021

Temperature-adaptive radiative coating for all-season household thermal regulation

The sky is a natural heat sink that has been extensively used for passive radiative cooling of households. A lot of focus has been on maximizing the radiative cooling power of roof coating in the hot daytime using static, cooling-optimized material properties. However, the resultant overcooling in cold night or winter times exacerbates the heating cost, especially in climates where heating dominates energy consumption. In this work, we approached thermal regulation from an all-season perspective by developing a mechanically flexible coating that adapts its thermal emittance to different ambient temperatures. The fabricated temperature-adaptive radiative coating (TARC) optimally absorbs the solar energy and automatically switches thermal emittance from 0.20 for ambient temperatures lower than 15°C to 0.90 for temperatures above 30°C, driven by a photonically amplified metal-insulator transition. Simulations show that this system outperforms existing roof coatings for energy saving in most climates, especially those with substantial seasonal variations.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Seasonal Performance Characterization of a Gen3 Particle-Based Concentrating Solar Plant With a Spatially Resolved Transient Thermal Storage Model

Particle-based Gen3 Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) can be paired with high-temperature power cycles (>700 °C) and can have built-in long duration (≥10 hours) thermal energy storage if the working particles are stored properly in thermal energy storage bins. Although high-temperature and long-duration thermal energy storage can mitigate daily intermittencies in solar irradiation, seasonal variability in local meteorological conditions can still have a significant impact on the overall performance of CSP systems. Aside from daily cloud coverage affecting incident solar radiation, wind speed and ambient temperature are also significant variables regarding system heat attenuation, component efficiency, and overall solar conversion efficiency. In this work, we present simulation results for a Gen3 CSP prototype system in operation over four weeks throughout the year in Albuquerque, NM. The meteorological conditions are taken directly from the TMY3 data at the Albuquerque International Sunport, where the hourly Direct Normal Irradiation (DNI), wind speed, and ambient temperature are of particular interest. An investigation of the sensitivity of individual components like storage and ducting to the local meteorological conditions is provided and extended to the overall performance of the CSP system. The results from this study show that the particle inlet temperature at the particle-to-sCO2 heat exchanger can change as fast as 30 °C/min under standard operation in a passive mode.

Plewe, Kaden (ORCID:0000000286826879)↗

DOE OSTI2024

PV Generation and Load Forecasting for Adjuntas PR Community Microgrids

Existing frameworks to forecast time-series photovoltaic (PV) output power and consumer load for microgrid operations and controls assume a near-continuous availability of real-time input features from the field assets such as PV inverters, energy meters, and weather station. These incoming data points are used to periodically retrain models and update forecast snapshots over a moving horizon window, be it one hour-ahead, one-day ahead, or one-week ahead. However, such frameworks are not resilient to disruptions in data availability caused by losses in communications between the field sensors and data loggers. Hence, there is a need for programs that assume no availability of real-time microgrid asset data and still make reliable forecasts that can be used for decision-making. Such programs would be apt to function in extreme weather events such as hurricanes and would use lightweight recursive time-series models to independently forecast solar irradiance and ambient temperature, then compute PV power from those forecasts, as well as independently forecast consumer load. The codebase performs forecasting for the scenario of when the microgrid does not have a reliable access to forecasts or real-time observations of solar irradiance (I) and ambient temperature (AT) and load (Load) to be able to adequately forecast, in real-time, the PV power production or a business' load. In this case, using historical values of PV power and load, a univariate forecasting of generation and consumption are respectively made. The use-case in particular has two sub-scenarios: one, a normal 7-day ahead forecast where the unavailability of real-time data is assumed due to infrastructure issues such as loss of communication or sensor maintenance or service downtimes. Whereas a hurricane-caused unavailability of real-time data requires a second model trained specifically on historical hurricane days to be able to capture the extreme day behavior of generation in particular, and load if applicable. A gradient boosted regression tree comprises an ensemble of additive models that map between the input of historical values (be it irradiance, temperature, or load) and their corresponding output forecasts of a given horizon such that the individual learner predictions are summed up over the total number of such learners in the ensemble to produce an aggregate forecast. A weighting mechanism is applied to the training data in each iteration, where actual and forecast values are compared to penalize incorrect forecasts by increasing the weight and reducing it to reward correct forecasts. The code's benefits are that it: (a) accounts for a contingency where communication loss renders newly measured real-time data unavailable for model tuning and snapshot updates; (b) presents blind forecasting that recursively determines the next time-step value in a horizon using the forecast of the same attribute from a prior step; and (c) employs lightweight models that, once trained, can reliably generalize for different horizons, which make them suitable for enhancing the resilience of field microgrids prone to extreme events that encounter disruptions to data availability.

Sundararajan, Aditya [Oak Ridge National Laborator↗

DOE OSTI2020

Phenological responses of temperate and boreal trees to warming depend on ambient spring temperatures, leaf habit, and geographic range

Changes in plant phenology associated with climate change have been observed globally. What is poorly known is whether and how phenological responses to climate warming will differ from year to year, season to season, habitat to habitat, or species to species. Here, we present 5 y of phenological responses to experimental warming for 10 subboreal tree species. Research took place in the open-air B4WarmED experiment in Minnesota. The design is a two habitat (understory and open) × three warming treatments (ambient, +1.7 °C, +3.4 °C) factorial at two sites. Phenology was measured twice weekly during the growing seasons of 2009 through 2013. We found significant interannual variation in the effect of warming and differences among species in response to warming that relate to geographic origin and plant functional group. Moreover, responses to experimental temperature variation were similar to responses to natural temperature variation. Warming advanced the date of budburst more in early compared to late springs, suggesting that to simulate interannual variability in climate sensitivity of phenology, models should employ process-based or continuous development approaches. Differences among species in timing of budburst were also greater in early compared to late springs. Our results suggest that climate change—which will make most springs relatively “early”—could lead to a future with more variable phenology among years and among species, with consequences including greater risk of inappropriately early leafing and altered interactions among species.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Hybrid Natural Gas Geothermal Combined Cycle Power Plant Analysis

Low temperature geothermal resources, including those associated with oil and gas production, are an underutilized source of low carbon energy. The present work investigates coupling of low-temperature geothermal resources with concentrating solar and/or natural gas energy sources to increase the number of locations at which power generation from low temperature geothermal resources would be technically and economically viable. Stand-alone and hybrid geothermal power cycles are simulated using SimTech IPSEpro process modeling software. Design point strategies for a hybrid power cycle that may operate with either a single heat source or two simultaneous heat input sources are considered. Additionally, off-design power plant operation is investigated to consider the impacts of the heat source availability and ambient temperature variations. The off-design analysis utilizes a modeling tool that predicts power plant performance at each time step as a function of topping cycle heat input (from gas or solar), bottoming cycle heat input (from geothermal), and ambient temperature. Addition of a steam topping cycle to an organic Rankine cycle geothermal power plant provides opportunities to increase the efficiency and power output relative to a stand-alone geothermal power plant. Additionally, use of the waste heat from gas turbine power generation in a geothermal bottoming cycle provides opportunities to increase the amount of power generation associated with each unit of carbon dioxide emitted. This paper will describe the hybrid plant configuration evaluated, discuss the predicted power cycle performance, and compare with stand-alone natural gas and geothermal power generation cases. The power cycle investigated is expected to be applicable for use with conventional hydrothermal resources as well as with geologic thermal energy storage applications and/or enhanced geothermal systems. The steam topping cycle could use a concentrated solar heat source for fully renewable hybrid plant configuration. A plant initially constructed with a natural gas topping cycle heat source could be converted to a solar heat source part way though the power cycle operational life to achieve life cycle carbon emission reductions.

concentrating solar power↗