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NASA NTRS2017

Applications of Anomaly Detection and Precursor Identification in Airspace Operations

As we continue to advance the U.S. National Airspace into the next generation of air traffic, we face challenges in both increase in complexity, as well as, a significant growth in traffic volume. Addressing these challenges, while maintaining the same level of safety is an important application of data mining. Because of these significant shifts in airspace design and usage there is a need to identify current and emergent safety risks along with their potential precursors. In recent years NASA has made advancements in developing scalable methods to address this effort in the Big Data paradigm. Multiple kernel anomaly detection approaches have been employed on both surveillance radar data and flight operational quality assurance data to identify operationally significant safety risks. Additionally, events have been explored with a recently developed precursor identification tool to discover states that reveal an increased probability of a safety event. These tools can be used to discover emerging safety risks that may not be currently monitored, which allows for mitigation tactics to be employed and ultimately make the overall airspace safer. This talk will discuss an overview of these methods and a discussion of the findings.

anomaly detection↗

NASA NTRS2022

Complex Autonomous Systems Assurance (CASA)

NASA’s System-Wide Safety project seeks to explore, understand, and overcome technical challenges associated with assuring the safety of future aviation operations. CASA is prototyping a process for the inclusion of untrusted (including machine-learning-enabled & autonomous) components in emerging aerospace systems. CASA enables increasingly effective paths to safety assurance of complex and autonomous systems through the development of certification processes for airspace systems with untrusted components

Kyle Kent Edward Ellis↗

NASA NTRS2009

Convective Weather Avoidance with Uncertain Weather Forecasts

Convective weather events have a disruptive impact on air traffic both in terminal area and in en-route airspaces. In order to make sure that the national air transportation system is safe and efficient, it is essential to respond to convective weather events effectively. Traffic flow control initiatives in response to convective weather include ground delay, airborne delay, miles-in-trail restrictions as well as tactical and strategic rerouting. The rerouting initiatives can potentially increase traffic density and complexity in regions neighboring the convective weather activity. There is a need to perform rerouting in an intelligent and efficient way such that the disruptive effects of rerouting are minimized. An important area of research is to study the interaction of in-flight rerouting with traffic congestion or complexity and developing methods that quantitatively measure this interaction. Furthermore, it is necessary to find rerouting solutions that account for uncertainties in weather forecasts. These are important steps toward managing complexity during rerouting operations, and the paper is motivated by these research questions. An automated system is developed for rerouting air traffic in order to avoid convective weather regions during the 20- minute - 2-hour time horizon. Such a system is envisioned to work in concert with separation assurance (0 - 20-minute time horizon), and longer term air traffic management (2-hours and beyond) to provide a more comprehensive solution to complexity and safety management. In this study, weather is dynamic and uncertain; it is represented as regions of airspace that pilots are likely to avoid. Algorithms are implemented in an air traffic simulation environment to support the research study. The algorithms used are deterministic but periodically revise reroutes to account for weather forecast updates. In contrast to previous studies, in this study convective weather is represented as regions of airspace that pilots are likely to avoid. The automated system periodically updates forecasts and reassesses rerouting decisions in order to account for changing weather predictions. The main objectives are to reroute flights to avoid convective weather regions and determine the resulting complexity due to rerouting. The eventual goal is to control and reduce complexity while rerouting flights during the 20 minute - 2 hour planning period. A three-hour simulation is conducted using 4800 flights in the national airspace. The study compares several metrics against a baseline scenario using the same traffic and weather but with rerouting disabled. The results show that rerouting can have a negative impact on congestion in some sectors, as expected. The rerouting system provides accurate measurements of the resulting complexity in the congested sectors. Furthermore, although rerouting is performed only in the 20-minute - 2-hour range, it results in a 30% reduction in encounters with nowcast weather polygons (100% being the ideal for perfectly predictable and accurate weather). In the simulations, rerouting was performed for the 20-minute - 2-hour flight time horizon, and for the en-route segment of air traffic. The implementation uses CWAM, a set of polygons that represent probabilities of pilot deviation around weather. The algorithms were implemented in a software-based air traffic simulation system. Initial results of the system's performance and effectiveness were encouraging. Simulation results showed that when flights were rerouted in the 20-minute - 2-hour flight time horizon of air traffic, there were fewer weather encounters in the first 20 minutes than for flights that were not rerouted. Some preliminary results were also obtained that showed that rerouting will also increase complexity. More simulations will be conducted in order to report conclusive results on the effects of rerouting on complexity. Thus, the use of the 20-minute - 2-hour flight time horizon weather avoidance teniques performed in the simulation is expected to provide benefits for short-term weather avoidance.

Karahan, Sinan↗

NASA NTRS1997

Dynamic Flow Management Problems in Air Transportation

In 1995, over six hundred thousand licensed pilots flew nearly thirty-five million flights into over eighteen thousand U.S. airports, logging more than 519 billion passenger miles. Since demand for air travel has increased by more than 50% in the last decade while capacity has stagnated, congestion is a problem of undeniable practical significance. In this thesis, we will develop optimization techniques that reduce the impact of congestion on the national airspace. We start by determining the optimal release times for flights into the airspace and the optimal speed adjustment while airborne taking into account the capacitated airspace. This is called the Air Traffic Flow Management Problem (TFMP). We address the complexity, showing that it is NP-hard. We build an integer programming formulation that is quite strong as some of the proposed inequalities are facet defining for the convex hull of solutions. For practical problems, the solutions of the LP relaxation of the TFMP are very often integral. In essence, we reduce the problem to efficiently solving large scale linear programming problems. Thus, the computation times are reasonably small for large scale, practical problems involving thousands of flights. Next, we address the problem of determining how to reroute aircraft in the airspace system when faced with dynamically changing weather conditions. This is called the Air Traffic Flow Management Rerouting Problem (TFMRP) We present an integrated mathematical programming approach for the TFMRP, which utilizes several methodologies, in order to minimize delay costs. In order to address the high dimensionality, we present an aggregate model, in which we formulate the TFMRP as a multicommodity, integer, dynamic network flow problem with certain side constraints. Using Lagrangian relaxation, we generate aggregate flows that are decomposed into a collection of flight paths using a randomized rounding heuristic. This collection of paths is used in a packing integer programming formulation, the solution of which generates feasible and near-optimal routes for individual flights. The algorithm, termed the Lagrangian Generation Algorithm, is used to solve practical problems in the southwestern portion of United States in which the solutions are within 1% of the corresponding lower bounds.

Patterson, Sarah Stock↗

NASA NTRS2011

Progress Toward Future Runway Management

The runway is universally acknowledged as a constraining factor to capacity in the National Airspace System (NAS). It follows that investigation of the effective use of runways, both in terms of selection and assignment, is paramount to the efficiency of future NAS operations. The need to address runway management is not a new idea; however, as the complexities of factors affecting runway selection and usage increase, the need for effective research in this area correspondingly increases. Under the National Aeronautics and Space Administration s Airspace Systems Program, runway management is a key research area. To address a future NAS which promises to be a complex landscape of factors and competing interests among users and operators, effective runway management strategies and capabilities are required. This effort has evolved from an assessment of current practices, an understanding of research activities addressing surface and airspace operations, traffic flow management enhancements, among others. This work has yielded significant progress. Systems analysis work indicates that the value of System Oriented Runway Management tools is significantly increased in the metroplex environment over that of the single airport case. Algorithms have been developed to provide runway configuration recommendations for a single airport with multiple runways. A benefits analysis has been conducted that indicates the SORM benefits include supporting traffic growth, cost reduction as a result of system efficiency, NAS optimization from metroplex operations, fairness in aircraft operations, and rational decision making.

Lohr, Gary W.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Airborne Trajectory Management (ABTM): A Blueprint for Greater Autonomy in Air Traffic Management

The aviation users of the National Airspace System (NAS) - the airlines, General Aviation (GA), the military and, most recently, operators of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) - are constrained in their operations by the design of the current paradigm for air traffic control (ATC). Some of these constraints include ATC preferred routes, departure fix restrictions and airspace ground delay programs. As a result, most flights cannot operate on their most efficient business trajectories and a great many flights are delayed even getting into the air, which imposes a significant challenge to maintaining efficient flight and network operations. Rather than accepting ever more sophisticated scheduling solutions to accommodate the existing constraints in the airspace, a series of increasingly capable airborne technologies, integrated with planned improvements in the ground system through the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Next Generation Air Traffic Management System (NextGen) programs, could produce much greater operational flexibility for flight path optimization by the aviation system users. These capabilities, described in research coming out of NASA's Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate, can maintain or improve operational safety while taking advantage of air and ground NextGen technologies in novel ways. The underlying premise is that the nation's physical airspace is still abundant and underused, and that the delays and inefficient flight operations resulting from artificial structure in airspace use and procedural constraints on those operations may not be necessary for safe and efficient flight. This article is not an indictment of today's NAS or the people who run it. Indeed, it is an exceptional achievement that Air Traffic Management (ATM) - the complex human/machine conglomeration of communications, navigation and surveillance equipment and the rules and procedures for controlling traffic in the airspace - has both the capacity and enables the degree of efficiency in air travel that it does. But it is also true that sixty years of the "radar religion" (i.e., reliance on radar-based command and control) has produced several generations of ATM system operators and researchers who believe that introducing automation within the existing functional structure of ATM is the only way to "modernize" the system. Even NextGen, which began as a proposal for "transformational" change in the way ATC is performed, has morphed over the last decade and a half to become just the inclusion of Global Positioning System (GPS) for navigation, Automatic Dependent Surveillance Broadcast (ADS-B) for surveillance, and Data Communications (Data Comm) for communications, while still operating in rigidly structured airspace with human controllers being responsible for separation and traffic flow management (TFM) within defined sectors of airspace, using the same horizontal separation standards that have been in use since raw primary radar was introduced in the 1950s. No system as massive as the current NAS ATM can be replaced with a better system while simultaneously meeting the transportation and other aviation needs of the nation. A new generation of more flexible operations must emerge and yet coexist in harmony with the current operation (i.e., share the same airspace without segregation), thereby enabling a long-term transformation to take place in the way increasing numbers of flights are handled. Market forces will be the ultimate driver of this transformation, and investment realities mandate that real benefits must accrue to the first operators to adopt these new capabilities. In fact, the kinds of missions envisioned in the emerging world of UAS operations, unachievable under conventional ATM, demand that this transformation take place. Airborne Trajectory Management (ABTM) is proposed as a series of transformational steps leading to vastly increased flexibility in flight operations and capacity in the airspace to accommodate many varied airspace uses while improving safety. As will be described, ABTM enables the gradual emergence of a new paradigm for user-based trajectory management in ATM that brings tangible benefits to equipped operators at every step while leveraging the air and ground investments of NextGen. There are five steps in this ABTM transformation.1 NASA has extensively studied the first and last of these steps, and a roadmap of increasing capabilities and benefits is proposed for bridging between these operational concepts.

Cotton, William B.↗

NASA NTRS2008

NASA Langley's Formal Methods Research in Support of the Next Generation Air Transportation System

This talk will provide a brief introduction to the formal methods developed at NASA Langley and the National Institute for Aerospace (NIA) for air traffic management applications. NASA Langley's formal methods research supports the Interagency Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO) effort to define and develop the 2025 Next Generation Air Transportation System (NGATS). The JPDO was created by the passage of the Vision 100 Century of Aviation Reauthorization Act in Dec 2003. The NGATS vision calls for a major transformation of the nation s air transportation system that will enable growth to 3 times the traffic of the current system. The transformation will require an unprecedented level of safety-critical automation used in complex procedural operations based on 4-dimensional (4D) trajectories that enable dynamic reconfiguration of airspace scalable to geographic and temporal demand. The goal of our formal methods research is to provide verification methods that can be used to insure the safety of the NGATS system. Our work has focused on the safety assessment of concepts of operation and fundamental algorithms for conflict detection and resolution (CD&R) and self- spacing in the terminal area. Formal analysis of a concept of operations is a novel area of application of formal methods. Here one must establish that a system concept involving aircraft, pilots, and ground resources is safe. The formal analysis of algorithms is a more traditional endeavor. However, the formal analysis of ATM algorithms involves reasoning about the interaction of algorithmic logic and aircraft trajectories defined over an airspace. These trajectories are described using 2D and 3D vectors and are often constrained by trigonometric relations. Thus, in many cases it has been necessary to unload the full power of an advanced theorem prover. The verification challenge is to establish that the safety-critical algorithms produce valid solutions that are guaranteed to maintain separation under all possible scenarios. Current research has assumed perfect knowledge of the location of other aircraft in the vicinity so absolute guarantees are possible, but increasingly we are relaxing the assumptions to allow incomplete, inaccurate, and/or faulty information from communication sources.

Butler, Ricky W.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Applying Graph Theory to Problems in Air Traffic Management

Graph theory is used to investigate three different problems arising in air traffic management. First, using a polynomial reduction from a graph partitioning problem, it is shown that both the airspace sectorization problem and its incremental counterpart, the sector combination problem are NP-hard, in general, under several simple workload models. Second, using a polynomial time reduction from maximum independent set in graphs, it is shown that for any fixed e, the problem of finding a solution to the minimum delay scheduling problem in traffic flow management that is guaranteed to be within n1-e of the optimal, where n is the number of aircraft in the problem instance, is NP-hard. Finally, a problem arising in precision arrival scheduling is formulated and solved using graph reachability. These results demonstrate that graph theory provides a powerful framework for modeling, reasoning about, and devising algorithmic solutions to diverse problems arising in air traffic management.

precision arrival scheduling↗

NASA NTRS2019

UTM Technical Capability Level 4 Testing

NASA's UTM project is conducting research on a traffic management concept for small unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) flying in low altitude, uncontrolled airspace. The project started in 2015 and is developing prototype UTM systems of successively complex technical capability levels (TCL) that are tested in the field. To date TCL levels 1-3 have been tested and TCL 4 will be tested in the summer of 2019. Project results are transferred to the FAA and industry to advance the adoption, implementation, and design standards of future UTM systems.

Johnson, Ronald D.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Problems in Machine Learning-Based Systems for Safety-Critical Avionics

To explore, discover, and understand the impact on safety of growing complexity introduced by modernization aimed at improving the efficiency of flight, the access to airspace, and/or the expansion of services provided by air vehicles. To develop and demonstrate innovative solutions that enable this modernization and the aviation transformation envisioned by ARMD through proactive mitigation of risks in accordance with target levels of safety.

Safety Critical Systems↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Towards Computational Functional Hazard Assessment (CFHA): A Gap Analysis and Concept for Emerging Aviation Systems

Given the current evolution of the National Airspace and future trajectory towards novel and evolving operations with varying levels of autonomy, complexity, and acceptable risk, there is an opportunity to support safety assurance by extending existing methodologies, such as Functional Hazard Assessment (FHA). In response to challenges in performing FHA for novel aviation concepts, we propose a concept for Computational Functional Hazard Assessment (CFHA), which provides processes, methods, and tools for incorporating external data to facilitate further exploration of the hazard space iterativelty throughout the design process. The core components of CFHA involve knowledge capture from historical and operational data, functional architecture specification via a formal modeling language, and simulation for hazardous scenario analysis. Through this concept, we aim to adapt conventional safety assessment to address the increasingly complex hazard space generated from emerging operations.

Seydou Mbaye↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Towards Functional Hazard Assessment (CFHA): A Gap Analysis and Concept for Emerging Aviation Systems

Seydou Mbaye↗

NASA NTRS2022

A Framework for Dynamic Architecture and Functional Allocations for Increasing Airspace Autonomy

To enable scalability of air travel for use cases such as cargo delivery, it is anticipated that future air traffic operations will involve unmanned aircraft operated by remote pilots. Of particular interest are schemes where a small number of pilots operate a large number of vehicles, mitigating high cost and pilot shortage issues. Such architectures require increased levels of automation and supervisory control modes. They also require ensuring safe operations when the command and control link to the vehicle is degraded or lost completely, rendering the vehicle autonomous. To evaluate these variable and dynamic architectures, this paper will present a framework for decomposing the functions necessary to ensure safe, orderly, and expeditious air travel, assessing the agents in the system, and classifying the levels of autonomy. Then, an example allocation to agents of roles for the function of separation assurance is presented, highlighting the dependency of the allocation on three main factors: time criticality of a potential separation violation, the ratio of pilots to vehicles, and the loss of the command and control link.

air traffic management, function allocation, auton↗

NASA NTRS2022

A Framework for Dynamic Architecture and Functional Allocations for Increasing Airspace Autonomy

To enable scalability of air travel for use cases such as cargo delivery, it is anticipated that future air traffic operations will involve unmanned aircraft operated by remote pilots. Of particular interest are schemes where a small number of pilots operate a large number of vehicles, mitigating high cost and pilot shortage issues. Such architectures require increased levels of automation and supervisory control modes. They also require ensuring safe operations when the command and control link to the vehicle is degraded or lost completely, rendering the vehicle autonomous. To evaluate these variable and dynamic architectures, this paper will present a framework for decomposing the functions necessary to ensure safe, orderly, and expeditious air travel, assessing the agents in the system, and classifying the levels of autonomy. Then, an example allocation to agents of roles for the function of separation assurance is presented, highlighting the dependency of the allocation on three main factors; time criticality of a potential separation violation, the ratio of pilots to vehicles, and the loss of the command and control link.

air traffic management↗

NASA NTRS2018

Autonomous Coordinated Airspace Services for Terminal and Enroute Operations with Wind Errors

As novel uses of the airspace continue to multiply, there is increasing demand for access to high-density terminal areas around major airports. Since the predicted demand for urban-air-mobility and urban-package-delivery is very high, and the interactions between these different types of aircraft and missions will be extremely complex, increasingly autonomous systems will be required to manage safety and efficiency. This paper presents the current status of an autonomous safety system designed to ensure safe and efficient trajectories for aircraft in terminal airspace, the Terminal Advanced Airspace Concept. Previous papers have demonstrated the efficacy of this algorithm for handling commercial arrivals into a complex metroplex when there is no uncertainty present. This study extends that work to demonstrate the performance of the algorithm under high levels of uncertainty.

terminal operations↗

NASA NTRS2018

Autonomous Coordinated Airspace Services for Terminal and Enroute Operations with Wind Errors

terminal operations↗

NASA NTRS2012

Initial Evaluation of a Conflict Detection Tool in the Terminal Area

Despite the recent economic recession and its adverse impact on air travel, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) continues to forecast an increase in air traffic demand that may see traffic double or triple by the year 2025. Increases in air traffic will burden the air traffic management system, and higher levels of safety and efficiency will be required. The air traffic controllers primary task is to ensure separation between aircraft in their airspace and keep the skies safe. As air traffic is forecasted to increase in volume and complexity [1], there is an increased likelihood of conflicts between aircraft, which adds risk and inefficiency to air traffic management and increases controller workload. To attenuate these factors, recent ATM research has shown that air and ground-based automation tools could reduce controller workload, especially if the automation is focused on conflict detection and resolution. Conflict Alert is a short time horizon conflict detection tool deployed in the Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON), which has limited utility due to the high number of false alerts generated and its use of dead reckoning to predict loss of separation between aircraft. Terminal Tactical Separation Assurance Flight Environment (T-TSAFE) is a short time horizon conflict detection tool that uses both flight intent and dead reckoning to detect conflicts. Results of a fast time simulation experiment indicated that TTSAFE provided a more effective alert lead-time and generated less false alerts than Conflict Alert [2]. TSAFE was previously tested in a Human-In-The-Loop (HITL) simulation study that focused on the en route phase of flight [3]. The current study tested the T-TSAFE tool in an HITL simulation study, focusing on the terminal environment with current day operations. The study identified procedures, roles, responsibilities, information requirements and usability, with the help of TRACON controllers who participated in the experiment. Metrics such as lead alert time, alert response time, workload, situation awareness and other measures were statistically analyzed. These metrics were examined from an overall perspective and comparisons between conditions (altitude resolutions via keyboard entry vs. ADS-B entry) and controller positions (two final approach sectors and two feeder sectors) were also examined. Results of these analyses and controller feedback provided evidence of T-TSAFE s potential promise as a useful air traffic controller tool. Heuristic analysis also provided information on ways in which the T-TSAFE tool can be improved. Details of analyses results will be presented in the full paper.

Verma Savita Arora↗

NASA NTRS2019

Effectiveness of Redundant Communications Systems in Maintaining Operational Control of Small Unmanned Aircraft

NASA has been researching prototype technologies for an Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Traffic Management (UTM) system to facilitate enabling of safe and efficient civilian low-altitude airspace and UAS operations, in a series of Technical Capability Levels (TCL) activities that are increasingly complex. In TCL1, completed in 2015, visual line-of-sight operations such as agriculture, firefighting and infrastructure monitoring were addressed with a focus on geofencing and operations scheduling. Technologies and requirements needed for beyond visual line-of-sight (BVLOS) operations in sparsely populated areas were examined in TCL2 in 2016, and those for operations over moderately populated areas in TCL3 in 2017 and 2018. TCL4 will build on the earlier TCLs and focus on technologies and requirements for operations in higher-density urban areas for tasks such as news gathering, package delivery and for managing large-scale contingencies. This paper describes a communications test conducted in TCL3 and discusses insights gained from the test. In the test, operators were directed to equip UAS with redundant Command and Control (C2) communications systems, send a maneuver command to Unmanned Aircraft (UA) via the primary system, then verify execution of the sent command. This exercise was repeated with each redundant system. The test was designed to assess effectiveness of redundant C2 systems in maintaining operational control of UA. Several UAS were configured with varying arrangements to achieve redundancy, including two identical radio modems using the same frequency band, WiFi and Long-Term Evolution (LTE) cellular modems, etc. From the test, digital data such as time maneuver command sent, time maneuver verified, etc., were collected. Descriptions of methods to detect loss of C2 communications and contingency steps for such event were collected and assessed. The final paper will include a detailed analysis of the collected data leading to the following insights. First, effectiveness of redundant C2 systems depends on several factors, such as operational environment and communications service availability. For example, use of two identical point-to-point radio to connect operator and UA on the same frequency band can be effective in mitigating radio malfunction when operating in an environment where possibility of Radio Frequency (RF) interference is low, such as over open plains. However, the same arrangement may not be effective where high level of RF transmissions in broad spectrum ranges can be expected, such as over or near urban areas. For redundant systems that consist of external communications services, such as cellular and satellite communications network, redundancy is maintained only in the areas where more than one services are available. Therefore, UAS operators should have the means to plan for and monitor the performance of external communications services they are relying on to control UA. Second, communications performance needs, such as the minimum data transfer rate and the maximum tolerable latency, should be assessed to reflect the potential hazard that can come from loss of UA control. For example, UA operations over desolate area pose less hazard to people than operations over densely populated area and performance need for the former would be less than the latter.

Jung, Jaewoo↗