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DOE OSTI2024

Hexagonal Lattices of HIV Capsid Proteins Explored by Simulations Based on a Thermodynamically Consistent Model

HIV capsid proteins (CAs) may self-assemble into a variety of shapes under in vivo and in vitro conditions. Here, we employed simulations based on a residue-level coarse-grained (CG) model with full conformational flexibility to investigate hexagonal lattices, which are the underlying structural pattern for CA aggregations. Facilitated by enhanced sampling simulations to rigorously calculate CA dimerization and polymerization affinities, we calibrated our model to reproduce the experimentally measured affinities. Here using the calibrated model, we performed unbiased simulations on several large systems consisting of 1512 CA subunits, allowing reversible binding and unbinding of the CAs in a thermodynamically consistent manner. In one simulation, a preassembled hexagonal CA sheet developed spontaneous curvatures reminiscent of those observed in experiments, and the edges of the sheet exhibited local curvatures larger than those of the interior. In other simulations starting with randomly distributed CAs at different concentrations, existing CA assemblies grew by binding free capsomeres to the edges and by merging with other assemblies. At high CA concentrations, rapid establishment of predominant aggregates was followed by much slower adjustments toward more regular hexagonal lattices, with increasing numbers of intact CA hexamers and pentamers being formed. Our approach of adapting a general CG model to specific systems by using experimental binding data represents a practical and effective strategy for simulating and elucidating intricate protein aggregations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2006

Zero to Integration in Eight Months, the Dawn Ground Data System Engineering Challenge

The Dawn Project has presented the Ground Data System (GDS) with technical challenges driven by cost and schedule constraints commonly associated with National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Discovery Projects. The Dawn mission consists of a new and exciting Deep Space partnership among: the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), manages the project and is responsible for flight operation; Orbital Sciences Corporation (OSC), is the spacecraft builder and is responsible for flight system test and integration; and the University of California, at Los Angeles (UCLA), is responsible for science planning and operations. As a cost-capped mission, one of Dawn's implementation strategies is to leverage from both flight and ground heritage. OSC's ground data system is used for flight system test and integration as part of the flight heritage strategy. Mission operations, however, are to be conducted with JPL's ground system. The system engineering challenge of dealing with two heterogeneous ground systems emerged immediately. During the first technical interchange meeting between the JPL's GDS Team and OSC's Flight Software Team, August 2003, the need to integrate the ground system with the flight software was brought to the table. This need was driven by the project's commitment to enable instrument engineering model integration in a spacecraft simulator environment, for both demonstration and risk mitigation purposes, by April 2004. This paper will describe the system engineering approach that was undertaken by JPL's GDS Team in order to meet the technical challenge within a non-negotiable eight-month schedule. Key to the success was adherence to fundamental systems engineering practices: decomposition of the project request into manageable requirements; integration of multiple ground disciplines and experts into a focused team effort; definition of a structured yet flexible development process; definition of an in-process risk reduction plan; and aggregation of the intermediate products to an integrated final product. In addition, this paper will highlight the role of lessons learned from the integration experience. The lessons learned from an early GDS deployment have served as the foundation for the design and implementation of the Dawn Ground Data System.

Ground Data System (GDS)↗

NASA NTRS2010

Centralized Alert-Processing and Asset Planning for Sensorwebs

A software program provides a Sensorweb architecture for alert-processing, event detection, asset allocation and planning, and visualization. It automatically tasks and re-tasks various types of assets such as satellites and robotic vehicles in response to alerts (fire, weather) extracted from various data sources, including low-level Webcam data. JPL has adapted cons iderable Sensorweb infrastructure that had been previously applied to NASA Earth Science applications. This NASA Earth Science Sensorweb has been in operational use since 2003, and has proven reliability of the Sensorweb technologies for robust event detection and autonomous response using space and ground assets. Unique features of the software include flexibility to a range of detection and tasking methods including those that require aggregation of data over spatial and temporal ranges, generality of the response structure to represent and implement a range of response campaigns, and the ability to respond rapidly.

Castano, Rebecca↗

DOE OSTI2022

Tri-level hybrid interval-stochastic optimal scheduling for flexible residential loads under GAN-assisted multiple uncertainties

Various building loads, such as heating, ventilation, and air conditioners (HVACs), electric water heaters (EWHs), and electric vehicles (EVs), can introduce opportunities for improving the flexibility of electricity consumption while satisfying the needs of building owners as well as benefiting the resilience of distribution system. To utilize such flexibility, a tri-level distribution market framework is established, including residential consumers, load aggregators (LAs), and the distribution system operator (DSO). In this work, the uncertainties from all three levels are considered. The random consumption behavior at the consumer level is modeled as a Gaussian noise that is also aggregated and transmitted to the LA level. The weather temperature in the LA level is forecasted as an interval, and the photovoltaic (PV) power in the market-clearing level is modeled by a set of power scenarios generated by Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs). Then, a hybrid interval-stochastic programming is proposed to transform the uncertain problems in the first two levels into deterministic ones. For real-time implementations, a rolling horizon optimization (RHO) scheme is employed to continuously optimize the power consumption based on the latest operating information. Finally, case studies on a modified IEEE 69-bus system validate the effectiveness of the proposed uncertainty modeling strategies and the RHO scheme.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

RAVIS: Resource Forecast and Ramp Visualization for Situational Awareness - An Introduction to the Open-Source Tool and Use Cases

The Resource Forecast and Ramp Visualization for Situational Awareness (RAVIS) is an open-source tool for visualizing variable renewable resource forecasts and ramp alerts for significant up/down ramps in renewable resource and the consequent net-load. The modular dashboard of RAVIS contains configurable panes for viewing- probabilistic time series forecasts, ramp event alerts on the look-ahead timeline, spatially resolved resource sites and forecasts, and system simulation and market clearing data such as transmission lines utilization, nodal prices and available generation flexibility. RAVIS uses a technology suite that is assembled to provide optimum visualization facility while maintaining a wide pool of potential deployment and client environments. The tool is designed to take advantage of web application technologies, open source visualization libraries and tooling. Utilizing this technology will enable deployment in any environment, using any operating system, and is scalable to much higher spatial and temporal scales of visualization. As a prototype of the tool and demonstrating a use case of variable renewable integration, RAVIS currently integrates site-specific solar power forecasts in the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) and Mid-continent ISO (MISO) footprint from the IBM WattSun forecasting platform, and also superimposes market simulation data for CAISO footprint from as in-house NREL market clearing tool. The tool has the ability to alert the viewer for excessive up or down ramps for both individual solar sites as well as regionally aggregated net-load ramps, and alerts can also be qualified with respect to available flexible generation. This report will provide an introduction to the RAVIS tool, and summarize the above mentioned capabilities, typical use cases and possible extensions of the tool. The RAVIS development team believes there are likely to be high economic and reliability benefits of integrating probabilistic forecasts of variable renewables into control center visualizations and improved ramp events situational awareness for system operators and forecasting teams in the ISOs and electric utilities in comparison with their business as usual practices.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Robust Hierarchical Dispatch Scheme for Active Distribution Networks Considering Home Thermal Flexibility

Distribution networks are changing from passive absorbers of electric energy to active distribution networks (ADNs) capable of operating and participating in electricity markets. In the context of residential microgrids, which is a type of ADNs, aggregated home heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) loads present a key opportunity to drive operational and economic objectives, facilitate high renewable energy penetration, and enhance both system resiliency and flexibility. A robust, hierarchical dispatch scheme is developed and presented in this paper, which connects an upper level multi-phase distribution optimal power flow (DOPF) to a lower level model predictive control (MPC)-based HVAC fleet controller. The approach is tested and verified on a modified IEEE 13 bus system in an intraday market application. The results demonstrate that the proposed hierarchical dispatch scheme is able to drive both economic and operational objectives for the ADN operator.

Rooks, Cody D.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Sub-100-fs energy transfer in coenzyme NADH is a coherent process assisted by a charge-transfer state

Excitation energy transfer (EET) is a key photoinduced process in biological chromophoric assemblies. Here we investigate the factors which can drive EET into efficient ultrafast sub-ps regimes. We demonstrate how a coherent transport of electronic population could facilitate this in water solvated NADH coenzyme and uncover the role of an intermediate dark charge-transfer state. High temporal resolution ultrafast optical spectroscopy gives a 54 ± 11 fs time constant for the EET process. Nonadiabatic quantum dynamical simulations computed through the time-evolution of multidimensional wavepackets suggest that the population transfer is mediated by photoexcited molecular vibrations due to strong coupling between the electronic states. The polar aqueous solvent environment leads to the active participation of a dark charge transfer state, accelerating the vibronically coherent EET process in favorably stacked conformers and solvent cavities. Our work demonstrates how the interplay of structural and environmental factors leads to diverse pathways for the EET process in flexible heterodimers and provides general insights relevant for coherent EET processes in stacked multichromophoric aggregates like DNA strands.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Integration of Microgrids, DER Aggregators, and DERMS with ADMS

Distributed energy resource (DER) management and control is disjointed, siloed, and at times conflicting. Behind-the-meter (BTM) assets can provide significant flexibility but are poorly integrated with the grid. Centralized control methods alone are not scalable. The objective is to develop and demonstrate an architecture that: provides reliable, resilient, and secure grid services; enables scalable, near-real-time management of utility- and small-scale DERs; supports transactive control, aggregation, and direct control of DERs; and incorporates existing utility management systems.

ADMS↗

NASA NTRS1987

Flexible system model reduction and control system design based upon actuator and sensor influence functions

A model reduction technique based on aggregation with respect to sensor and actuator influence functions rather than modes is presented for large systems of coupled second-order differential equations. Perturbation expressions which can predict the effects of spillover on both the reduced-order plant model and the neglected plant model are derived. For the special case of collocated actuators and sensors, these expressions lead to the derivation of constraints on the controller gains that are, given the validity of the perturbation technique, sufficient to guarantee the stability of the closed-loop system. A case study demonstrates the derivation of stabilizing controllers based on the present technique. The use of control and observation synthesis in modifying the dimension of the reduced-order plant model is also discussed. A numerical example is provided for illustration.

Yam, Yeung↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modulating Solvation Structure in Concentrated Aqueous Organic Redox Flow Battery Electrolyte for Solubility and Transport Enhancement via Polycomplex Ion

Aqueous organic redox flow batteries hold great promise as a technology for creating economical grid energy storage using sustainable materials. Nonetheless, the solubility limit presents a universal barrier for all redox-active organic molecules. In this paper, a new approach is proposed to surpass the solubility limit by manipulating the solvation structure with polycomplex ion additives (PIA). Using poly(3,4-ethylenedioxythiophene) polystyrenesulfonate colloids as one example, its role in dismantling the rigid supramolecular clusters within the highly concentrated 7,8-dihydroxyphenazine-2-sulfonic acid electrolyte is investigated. 1 H and 23 Na NMR spectra and molecular dynamics simulation studies demonstrate that the bipolar structure of the PIA effectively disrupts the aggregations of DHPS and Na + ion in the highly concentrated anolyte, thus rendering a more flexible solvation structure and less restrictive ion transport, leading to substantially improved battery performance of an AORFB cell. The anolyte with PIA achieved 1.6 M and 74.3 Ah L –1 anolyte energy capacity.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Transactive Energy Network Template Metamodel

While transactive energy, which is defined as an allocation of electricity based on dynamically discovered values or prices, has been extensively studied, its uptake and use has been slow. This report describes a tool, the transactive network template, which should hasten the creation and uptake of transactive energy networks. Some basic principles of transactive energy are familiar from existing wholesale electricity markets. Locational prices are calculated today for zones within bulk electric transmission systems. Locational prices differ while accounting for the locational costs of electricity generation and the losses and constraints incurred when electricity is transmitted from generators and distributed to consumers. A transactive energy network might include these transmission zones. However, current research strives to apply transactive energy also in electricity distribution circuits, buildings, and even for individual generating and consuming devices. At the same time, researchers explore how to apply transactive energy in real time during increasingly shorter time intervals. Automated computational agents become necessary as transactive energy becomes applied to smaller circuit zones and at faster dynamic timescales. A transactive energy network is an example of a multi-agent system. Each zone in the network is represented by its transactive agent, which makes decisions for and acts on behalf of a business entity that is responsible for and manages one of the circuit regions. A transactive energy network is also an example of a decentralized, distributed control system. Control decisions and responsibilities are distributed among the network’s transactive agents. The transactive agents are independent; that is, there typically is no centralized authority or oversight function. Instead, transactive agents exchange transactive signals and thereby negotiate the prices and quantities of electricity that they will exchange. Initially, the circuit regions and responsibilities of transactive agents appear to be very dissimilar. Each circuit region may comprise transmission, distribution, or building-level circuits. Each has a unique position and electrical connectivity within the transactive energy network. Each possesses unique assets that either generate or consume electricity, and these (e.g., renewable energy generator, diesel generator, aggregate utility load, building load, space conditioning, refrigerator, etc.) may further differ in their price flexibility and in their strategies for responding to dynamic electricity prices. Given such diversity, an implementer’s first inclination might be to start from scratch to define all these devices and to engineer their seemingly unique interactions. Given that each implementer’s perspective may be narrow within a transactive energy network, it is unlikely that uniquely engineered systems would interact well. This is where the transactive network template is applicable. The transactive network template is a metamodel that has been developed to guide implementers as they configure their own transactive agent within a network of such agents. The object-oriented design of the transactive network template provides basic code object types that may be used and extended by implementers to represent each of the assets in their circuit region. These objects further facilitate the transactive agent’s necessary computations, which are divided among responsibilities to schedule power usage, balance electric supply and demand, and coordinate the exchange of electricity with the other transactive agents. This report addresses the conceptual transactive network template design. Implementers are directed to more formal design documents and reference implementations. A Python™-based1 reference implementation of the transactive network template has been coded, and three implementations have been configured to represent a national laboratory and two university campuses. Version 2 of the transactive node template generalizes the market class and its methods to facilitate multiple, and more diverse market coordination mechanisms than were facilitated by and demonstrated using Version 1. Version 3 includes new Appendix B, which addresses the designs of methods that would make dynamic prices track approved electricity rates. In the future, the author wishes to make the transactive network template more generally applicable to networks that require more accurate power flow. Development of the transactive network template is jointly funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy and the DOE Office of Electricity. In late 2015, one of the first projects to be funded by the DOE Grid Laboratory Modernization Laboratory Consortium was the Clean Energy and Transactive Campus project, led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. DOE funds were matched by an investment by the Washington Department of Commerce through its Clean Energy Fund. The transactive network template was developed to guide the implementation of transactive energy networks within this project’s scope.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Direct Observation of Modulated Radical Spin States in Metal–Organic Frameworks by Controlled Flexibility

Owing to their switchable spin states and dynamic electronic character, organic-based radical species have been invoked in phenomena unique to a variety of fields. When incorporated in solid state materials, generation of organic radicals proves challenging due to aggregation. Metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) are promising candidates for immobilization and stabilization of organic radicals because of the tunable spatial arrangement of organic linkers and metal nodes, which sequesters the reactive species. Herein, a flexible, redox-active tetracarboxylic acid linker bearing two imidazole units was chosen to construct a new Zr 6 -MOF, NU-910, with scu topology. By exploiting the structural flexibility of NU-910, we successfully modulate the dynamics between an isolated organic radical species and an organic radical π-dimer species in the MOF system. Single-crystal X-ray diffraction analysis reveals that through solvent exchange from N,N-diethylformamide to acetone, NU-910 undergoes a structural contraction with interlinker distances decreasing from 8.32 Å to 3.20 Å at 100 K. Organic radical species on the bridging linkers are generated via UV light irradiation. Direct observation of temperature-induced spin switches from an isolated radical species to a magnetically silent radical π-dimer in NU-910 after irradiation in the solid state was achieved via variable-temperature single-crystal X-ray diffraction and variable-temperature electron paramagnetic resonance spectroscopy. Ultraviolet–visible–near infrared spectroscopy and density functional theory calculations further substantiated the formation of a radical cation π-dimer upon irradiation. As a result, this work demonstrates the potential of using flexible MOFs as a platform to modulate radical spin states in the solid phase.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Electrification Futures Study Flexible Load Profiles

This data set includes hourly profiles for flexible load developed for the Electrification Futures Study (EFS). The load profiles represent projected end-use electricity demand that is assumed to be flexible (i.e., can be shifted throughout a day) for various scenarios of flexibility (Base, Enhanced), electrification (Reference, Medium, High), and technology advancement (Slow, Moderate, Rapid), and were developed as inputs into the ReEDS model. The quantity of flexible load is estimated using assumptions on the level of flexibility and customer participation within each subsector modeled in the EFS. Detailed assumptions and modeling implementation will be documented in ongoing EFS analyses. Flexible load profiles are provided for a subset of years (2018, 2020, 2024, 2030, 2040, 2050) and are aggregated to the state and sector level. Total electricity load profiles can be found in a related EFS data set (https://dx.doi.org/10.7799/1593122). NOTE: Due to the file size, Mac users may experience issues decompressing the zip files using the Mac Archive Utility. In those cases, decompressing using the command line is recommended. - Mai, Trieu, Paige Jadun, Jeffrey Logan, Colin McMillan, Matteo Muratori, Daniel Steinberg, Laura Vimmerstedt, Ryan Jones, Benjamin Haley, and Brent Nelson. 2018. Electrification Futures Study: Scenarios of Electric Technology Adoption and Power Consumption for the United States. National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-6A20-71500. https://doi.org/10.2172/1459351. - Murphy, Caitlin, Trieu Mai, Yinong Sun, Paige Jadun, Matteo Muratori, Brent Nelson, Ryan Jones. Forthcoming. Electrification Futures Study: Scenarios of Power System Evolution and Infrastructure Development for the United States. National Renewable Energy Laboratory. - Sun, Yinong, Paige Jadun, Brent Nelson, Matteo Muratori, Caitlin Murphy, Jeffrey Logan, and Trieu Mai. Forthcoming. Electrification Futures Study: Methodological Approaches for Assessing Long-Term Power System Impacts of End-Use Electrification. National Renewable Energy Laboratory.

buildings↗

DOE OSTI2026

Conserving asphalt resources: Rethinking rejuvenator performance evaluation through peptizing efficiency

Timely rejuvenation and restoration of asphalt are essential conservation practices that help preserve and extend the service life of roads, bridges, driveways, and parking lots. The performance of asphalt rejuvenators is often assessed based on their diffusion rates and softening power, yet these metrics alone fail to capture true rejuvenation potential. Here, this study integrates density functional theory (DFT) modeling with experimental analysis to show that rejuvenation effectiveness is primarily governed by molecular interactions with oxidized asphaltene nanoaggregates. DFT results revealed that amide- and unsaturated-chain compounds, such as hexadecanamide, oleic acid, and 9,17-octadecadienal, act cooperatively to disrupt π–π stacking and exfoliate asphaltene layers, reducing binding strength and enhancing dispersion. Unlike bulky, rigid molecules that remain trapped, these components remain mobile and repeatedly interact with multiple aggregation sites. Experimental validation using rheometry and FTIR confirmed that such molecularly compatible rejuvenators restore the binder flexibility and polydispersity, even when diffusion is relatively slow. Building on this mechanistic foundation, six rejuvenators (A2, A5, A7, A8, A9, and A10) were evaluated using a three-metric performance framework encompassing cracking resistance (Glover–Rowe parameter), UV stability, and surface hydrophobicity. Among the six rejuvenators evaluated, A9 exhibited the highest overall performance, reducing the Glover–Rowe cracking parameter by 85% (from 351 kPa to 53 kPa), demonstrating the greatest resistance to UV-induced aging with a stability index of 4.17 h·kPa⁻¹, and increasing surface hydrophobicity to a contact angle of 103.6°. Its superior performance is primarily attributed to its amide- and unsaturated-chain components, which act cooperatively to disrupt π–π stacking interactions and exfoliate asphaltene layers, thereby promoting molecular deagglomeration and enhancing long-term durability. These results shift the criteria for selecting rejuvenators: effective candidates must pair the electronic capability to unlock aged asphaltenes with sufficient structural stability to resist secondary aging and restore hydrophobicity. Restoring hydrophobicity is critical, as aging reduces the asphalt’s water repellency and increases water diffusion, which in turn accelerates moisture-related damage; consequently, a high-performing rejuvenator must effectively restore the binder’s hydrophobic characteristic. Collectively, these findings provide a framework for the rational design of next-generation of bio-based rejuvenators that enhance pavement longevity and promote long-term sustainability.

Aging↗

DOE OSTI2022

Methods for Computing Physically Realistic Estimates of Electric Water Heater Demand Response Resource Suitable for Bulk Power System Planning Models

Demand response is commonly called on to reduce load during system peak times or to respond to contingency events. In future power systems with higher shares of wind and solar generation (which we describe together as variable generation [VG]), demand response could have more opportunities to provide energy shifting or operating reserve services. This report evaluates the ability of residential electric water heaters, both electric resistance water heaters (ERWHs) and heat pump water heaters (HPWHs), to provide such services starting from detailed whole-building energy models that realistically represent New England single family home stock. We use a parsimonious surrogate model to represent operational flexibility in a form suitable for linear and mixed integer programming. This enables relatively fast determination of aggregate contingency reserve resource, price-taking energy shifting outcomes, and in some cases the determination of aggregate models at the megawatt (MW) scale that can be directly included in large-scale grid models. After selecting modeling methods and parameters through various computational experiments, we find interquartile ranges of contingency reserve resource in ISO-NE for about 603,400 ERWHs of 45 MW - 69 MW for Claim10 (50 minute responses provided with 10 minutes of advanced notification) and 65 MW - 102 MW for Claim30 (30 minute responses provided with 30 minutes of advanced notification), and for about 619,000 HPWHs of 48 MW - 88 MW for Claim10 and 52 MW - 90 MW for Claim30. The overall reserve resource is up to 32% of total load for ERWHs providing Claim10 service, 47% for ERWHs providing Claim30 service, 93% for HPWHs providing Claim10 service, and 97% for HPWHs providing Claim30 service. More work is required to determine if HPWHs are inherently more suitable than ERWHs for providing contingency reserve or if these results reflect idiosyncrasies of the single family home stock model used in this study. The value of this contingency resource in a Near-term VG model of ISO-NE is $\$ 0.40$ to $\$1.20$ per water heater-year, and significantly larger, $\$ 3.80$ to $\$ 5.30$ per water heater-year in a Mid-term VG model of ISONE. Aggregating surrogate models to the MW-scale for energy shifting service is more challenging than for contingency service and we only present such results for ERWHs, because we were unable to determine satisfactory ways to deal with HPWHs' time-varying and path dependent operational characteristics. Individual surrogate models suitable for evaluating the energy shifting resource from both ERWHs and HPWHs are created, however, and dispatched against day-ahead prices from the Near-Term VG and Mid-Term VG models of ISO-NE. The individual surrogate models are able to access and potentially shift all 640 GWh of HPWH load and 1,547 GWh of ERWH load we modeled in two different single family home stock models. In contrast, the most effective model of aggregate ERWH shifting resource we created only captured 34.7% of the total ERWH load. Energy shifting affected by price-taking dispatch against modeled day-ahead energy prices produces per water heater year profits of $\$19.44$ - $\$22.93$ for individual HPWHs, $\$39.11$ - $\$40.54$ for individual ERWHs, and up to $\$4.00$ - $\$4.24$ for aggregated ERWHs, with the variations mainly due to grid conditions (more or less VG). When the supply-side response to these changes is accounted for, the per water heater year production cost savings for ISO-NE are $\$7.50$ to $\$17.70$ for the most effective set of endogenously dispatched aggregate ERWHs, $\$15.60$ to $\$15.70$ for individual ERWHs dispatched against the DA prices, and $\$10.70$ to $\$11.20$ for individual HPWHs dispatched against DA prices. Those ranges primarily represent the difference between Near-Term VG and Mid-Term VG grid conditions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating the Benefits of Bayesian Hierarchical Methods for Analyzing Heterogeneous Environmental Datasets: A Case Study of Marine Organic Carbon Fluxes

Large compilations of heterogeneous environmental observations are increasingly available as public databases, allowing researchers to test hypotheses across datasets. Statistical complexities arise when analyzing compiled data due to unbalanced spatial sampling, variable environmental context, mixed measurement techniques, and other reasons. Hierarchical Bayesian modeling is increasingly used in environmental science to describe these complexities, however few studies explicitly compare the utility of hierarchical Bayesian models to simpler and more commonly applied methods. Here we demonstrate the utility of the hierarchical Bayesian approach with application to a large compiled environmental dataset consisting of 5,741 marine vertical organic carbon flux observations from 407 sampling locations spanning eight biomes across the global ocean. We fit a global scale Bayesian hierarchical model that describes the vertical profile of organic carbon flux with depth. Profile parameters within a particular biome are assumed to share a common deviation from the global mean profile. Individual station-level parameters are then modeled as deviations from the common biome-level profile. The hierarchical approach is shown to have several benefits over simpler and more common data aggregation methods. First, the hierarchical approach avoids statistical complexities introduced due to unbalanced sampling and allows for flexible incorporation of spatial heterogeneitites in model parameters. Second, the hierarchical approach uses the whole dataset simultaneously to fit the model parameters which shares information across datasets and reduces the uncertainty up to 95% in individual profiles. Third, the Bayesian approach incorporates prior scientific information about model parameters; for example, the non-negativity of chemical concentrations or mass-balance, which we apply here. We explicitly quantify each of these properties in turn. We emphasize the generality of the hierarchical Bayesian approach for diverse environmental applications and its increasing feasibility for large datasets due to recent developments in Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms and easy-to-use high-level software implementations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Packetized Energy Management: Coordinating Transmission and Distribution (Final Report)

The project Packetized Energy Management (PEM): Coordinating Transmission and Distribution was part of the ARPA-E NODES program from 2015 to 2023. The high-level goal of the project was to develop and demonstrate novel, scalable, and impactful technologies related to the coordination of networked distributed energy resources (DERs). By demonstrating responsive means by which fleets of DERs could be coordinated to enhance grid operation and reliability, the U.S. could accelerate renewable integration and electrification efforts and meet decarbonization goals.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

NASA NTRS1986

Behavior of centrosomes during fertilization and cell division in mouse oocytes and in sea urchin eggs

The behavior of centrosomes during the stages of fertilization and cell division in mouse oocytes and in sea urchin eggs was monitored in an immunofluorescence microscope, using autoimmune centrosomal antiserum derived from a patient with scleroderma to label the centrosomal material. These observations showed that centrosomes reproduce during the interphase and aggregate and separate during cell mitosis. Results supported the hypothesis of Mazia (1984), who proposed that centrosomes are 'flexible bodies'. It was also found that, while the sea urchin centrosomes are paternally inherited as was initially proposed by Bovery (1904), the mouse centrosomes are of maternal origin.

Schatten, Heide↗