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122 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Exploring Multilayer Network Models to Build a Scientific Basis for Integrated Deterrence: Final Report

The emerging multipolar international security environment represents a fundamental restructuring of global nuclear balance of power to include two nuclear peer competitors, growing non-peer nuclear threats, and concerns of nuclear latency from both allies and adversaries. Conflicts in the grey zone, cyber operations, mis- and disinformation campaigns, and emerging disruptive technologies like drones, and hypersonic missiles are becoming more prevalent. These present a risk of cross-domain and multi-domain conflicts that may not follow known escalatory patterns. In order to prepare for the new deterrence environment, it is critical to have quantitative and qualitative understandings of these cross-domain conflicts, their potential for escalation, and which systems they may impact. To that end, our team created a Multi-Layer Network (MLN) model of ‘integrated deterrence’ where instruments of national power are modeled as individual network graph layers that include efforts from all domains. We then evaluate the potential for escalation against escalation scenarios. Analysis of the escalation scenarios is then used to identify insights of potential risk and escalation within integrated deterrence.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2026

Leveraging generative artificial intelligence to bridge domain gaps in wind turbine research

A central challenge in wind turbine health monitoring is the scarcity of real-world data due to limited instrumentation, leading researchers to rely on simulation models that often suffer from reduced fidelity. However, even within simulation environments, discrepancies arise because of modeling assumptions, and configuration fidelities, creating domain gaps that limit the transferability of learned representations. Here, to investigate domain translation under controlled conditions, this project explores the use of generative artificial intelligence, specifically cycle-consistent generative adversarial networks (CGANs), to bridge the gap between OpenFAST simulation models representing 1.5 MW and 5 MW wind turbines. A physics-informed CGAN architecture is introduced, where a simplified turbine tower dynamics model is incorporated into the training loss to ensure physically consistent outputs. Quantitative results showed moderate to high agreement in frequency-domain features. Incorporating the physics-informed loss function improved the R 2 values by 30%, reduced the RMSE from 1.39 to 1.1 m/s 2 , and reduced training time by 82%. Furthermore, under increased turbulence intensity (IEC Category A), the RMSE remained stable at approximately 1.1 m/s 2 . While the present study is entirely simulation-based, it establishes a pipeline for evaluating physics-informed generative domain translation, which may serve as a foundation for future simulation-to-reality validation studies.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine Learning-based Cyber-Physical Anomaly Detection in Wide Area Voltage Control Systems

Wide-area voltage control systems (WAVCS) are widely deployed in power grid to improve the voltage stability in transmission system using Flexible AC Transmission System (FACTS) devices. The WAVCS relies on wide-area measurement and control signals for closed-loop control of FACTS devices to improve the transient voltage stability in power grid in real-time. Since the WAVCS utilizes a cyber-layer communication during its normal operation, they are susceptible to cyber attacks from adversaries which can lead to a voltage collapse if the attacks go undetected and unmitigated. This paper proposes a supervised machine learning (ML)-based anomaly detection algorithm for detecting various stealthy cyber attacks in the context of WAVCS cybersecurity. In particular, a fuzzy logic-based wide-area controller, as proposed by the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA), is implemented on the Kundur’s four machine two-area system that is integrated with a static var compensator (SVC) to improve voltage profile on sensitive buses. Later, different types of data integrity attacks, including pulse and ramp attacks, are considered on the wide-area measurement and control signals to analyze the performance of the proposed anomaly detector. Our experimental evaluation shows a promising performance with a high true-positive rate (more than 99%) and low false-negative rate (less than 1%) while exhibiting a small prediction time.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

FL-DISCO: Federated Generative Adversarial Network for Graph-based Molecule Drug Discovery: Special Session Paper

The outbreak of the global COVID-19 pandemic emphasizes the importance of collaborative drug discovery for high effectiveness; however, due to the stringent data regulation, data privacy becomes an imminent issue needing to be addressed to enable collaborative drug discovery. In addition to the data privacy issue, the efficiency of drug discovery is another key objective since infectious diseases spread exponentially and effectively conducting drug discovery could save lives. Advanced Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques are promising to solve these problems: (1) Federated Learning (FL) is born to keep data privacy while learning data from distributed clients; (2) graph neural network (GNN) can extract structural properties of molecules whose underlying architecture is the connected atoms; and (3) generative adversarial network (GAN) can generate novel molecules while retaining the properties learned from the training data. In this work, we make the first attempt to build a holistic collaborative and privacy-preserving FL framework, namely FL- DISCO, which integrates GAN and GNN to generate molecular graphs. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of FL- DISCO on: (1) IID data for ESOL and QM9, where FL-DISCO can generate highly novel compounds with high drug-likeliness, uniqueness and LogP scores compared to the baseline; (2) non- IID data for ESOL and QM9, where FL-DISCO generates 100% novel compounds with high validity and LogP scores compared to the baseline. We also demonstrate how different fractions of clients, generator and discriminator architectures affect our evaluation scores.

Manu, Daniel↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling design and control problems involving neural network surrogates

Here, we consider nonlinear optimization problems that involve surrogate models represented by neural networks. We demonstrate first how to directly embed neural network evaluation into optimization models, highlight a difficulty with this approach that can prevent convergence, and then characterize stationarity of such models. We then present two alternative formulations of these problems in the specific case of feedforward neural networks with ReLU activation: as a mixed-integer optimization problem and as a mathematical program with complementarity constraints. For the latter formulation we prove that stationarity at a point for this problem corresponds to stationarity of the embedded formulation. Each of these formulations may be solved with state-of-the-art optimization methods, and we show how to obtain good initial feasible solutions for these methods. We compare our formulations on three practical applications arising in the design and control of combustion engines, in the generation of adversarial attacks on classifier networks, and in the determination of optimal flows in an oil well network.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assembling a Cyber Range to Evaluate Artificial Intelligence / Machine Learning (AI/ML) Security Tools

In this case study, we will describe the design and assembly of a cyber security test range we have built at Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Oak Ridge, TN, USA. The range is designed to provide a flexible environment to evaluate cyber security tools—particularly those involving AI/ML—in a way that provides realistic environments and where we can control the experiments to determine the strengths and weaknesses of the tools. We have designed in the ability to repeat the evaluations, so additional tools can be evaluated and compared at a later time. The system is one that can be scaled up or down for experiment sizes. At the time of the conference we will have completed two full-scale, national, government challenges on this range. These challenges are evaluating the performance and operating costs for AI/ML-based cyber security tools for application into large, government-sized environments. These evaluations will be described, in order to provide motivation and context for various design decisions and adaptations we have made. The first challenge measured end-point security tools against 100K malware samples chosen across a range of types. The second is network detection of attempted penetration and exploitations with varying levels of covertness in a high-volume, business network. The scale of each of these challenges is requiring us to create automation systems to repeat the experiments identically for each tool. Preventing there being easy signs of malicious activity for the AI/ML tools to focus on has been a particularly interesting and challenging aspect of designing and executing these challenge events. After the events, the range continues to be used for other research such as adversarial machine learning where the repeatability, scale, and automation required for the national challenge events become essential elements for research.

Nichols, Jeff↗
DOE OSTI2020

Distributed Intrusion Detection System using Semantic-based Rules for SCADA in Smart Grid

Cyber-physical system (CPS) security for the smart grid enables secure communication for the SCADA and wide-area measurement system data. Power utilities world-wide use various SCADA protocols, namely DNP3, Modbus, and IEC 61850, for the data exchanges across substation field devices, remote terminal units (RTUs), and control center applications. Adversaries may exploit compromised SCADA protocols for the reconnaissance, data exfiltration, vulnerability assessment, and injection of stealthy cyberattacks to affect power system operation. In this paper, we propose an efficient algorithm to generate robust rule sets. We integrate the rule sets into an intrusion detection system (IDS), which continuously monitors the DNP3 data traffic at a substation network and detects intrusions and anomalies in real-time. To enable CPS-aware wide-area situational awareness, we integrated the methodology into an open-source distributed-IDS (D-IDS) framework. The D-IDS facilitates central monitoring of the detected anomalies from the geographically distributed substations and to the control center. The proposed algorithm provides an optimal solution to detect network intrusions and abnormal behavior. Different types of IDS rules based on packet payload, packet flow, and time threshold are generated. Further, IDS testing and evaluation is performed with a set of rules in different sequences. The detection time is measured for different IDS rules, and the results are plotted. All the experiments are conducted at Power Cyber Lab, Iowa State University, for multiple power grid models. After successful testing and evaluation, knowledge and implementation are transferred to field deployment.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Autonomous System Subversion Tactics: Prototypes and Recommended Countermeasures

One of the fielding requirements for Advanced and Small Modular Reactors (AR/SMR) is the ability to support remote and autonomous operations. Autonomous Control Systems (ACS) are found on platforms such as Autonomous Space Vehicles, Cruise Missiles, and advanced driver-assistance systems. Each of these ACS implementations depends upon a set of decision support subsystems responsible for supporting Autonomous Mission Managers (names vary based upon field and author preferences). These Autonomous Mission Managers receive inputs from system sensors (e.g., LIDAR collection from an automobile travelling down a street; transients from a nuclear reactor), and perform a set of classifications (e.g., Red Traffic Light; Small Pedestrian at 10m; Load Rejection; Single Coolant Pump Trip), and then use these classifications in combination with recommendation algorithms to achieve platform goals (e.g., Stop the Vehicle at the Traffic Light, Avoid the Small Pedestrian; Trip the Reactor to prevent a Safety Event). The design, implementation, and fielding of an ACS capability will alter the cyber-attack surface such that existing risk management plans will need to be updated to include how to protect and defend against data-science and decision-support-system attack classes. These attack classes would include protection of the design and training environments where algorithm selection and testing and training data would be obvious attack vectors. These attack classes would also require an informed set of detection and response procedures to identify anomalous behaviors and document best practices for anomaly assessment and vulnerability mitigation and remediation. Last year we published a Cyber Threat Assessment Methodology for Autonomous and Remote Operations for AR/SMRs along with a companion publication on Cyber Attack and Defense Use Cases. The focus of the methodology was on describing and enumerating ACS processes, components, and functions such that security engineers could: evaluate subversion options against the target; identify threat actor attributes and capabilities derived from each subversion option; and identify security controls and response countermeasures. The Use Cases document offered detailed methodology examples including an assessment of a Military Base SMR, an Autonomous System Decision Loop, and implementation of AR/SMR Machine Learning algorithms. Our proposal at the end of last year was to focus on implementation of subversion prototypes related to the last Use Case area: AR/SMR Machine Learning (ML) Algorithms. We included six attack scenarios in our Use Cases paper: a Poisoning Attack against ML functions implemented using an FPGA; a Trojaning Attack against ML classifiers exploiting the excitability of Nuclear Engineers; a Backdooring Attack against ML Training environments to ensure persistence of an attack vector; a False Positive Evasion Attack against multi-factor Access Control Systems using clever inputs; an Inference Attack against ML models by an Insider with access to the Operational environment; and an Adversarial Reprogramming Attack against a Material Access Control Video Surveillance System. At the beginning of this year these six attack scenarios were provided to our research teams at Georgia Tech and Idaho State University and each team successfully implemented a subversion attack against a ML implementation to include transient misclassifications. While this is a notable outcome from this type of research, this paper offers the reader insight into not only how to structure and execute these types of attacks, but into the thought process behind how the researcher investigated the problem space, performed initial algorithm implementation, and the trial-and-error behind arriving at the successful subversion prototypes. We include in this paper a set of associated Scenarios on how these subversion prototypes could be implemented and an initial set of guidance for AR/SMR architects, Nuclear Regulators, and Cyber Defenders to implement awareness and defense capabilities into their current operational portfolios.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

On the effectiveness of neural operators at zero-shot weather downscaling

Machine-learning (ML) methods have shown great potential for weather downscaling. These data-driven approaches provide a more efficient alternative for producing high-resolution weather datasets and forecasts compared to physics-based numerical simulations. Neural operators, which learn solution operators for a family of partial differential equations, have shown great success in scientific ML applications involving physics-driven datasets. Neural operators are grid-resolution-invariant and are often evaluated on higher grid resolutions than they are trained on, i.e., zero-shot super-resolution. Given their promising zero-shot super-resolution performance on dynamical systems emulation, we present a critical investigation of their zero-shot weather downscaling capabilities, which is when models are tasked with producing high-resolution outputs using higher upsampling factors than are seen during training. To this end, we create two realistic downscaling experiments with challenging upsampling factors (e.g., 8x and 15x) across data from different simulations: the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) and the Wind Integration National Dataset Toolkit. While neural operator-based downscaling models perform better than interpolation and a simple convolutional baseline, we show the surprising performance of an approach that combines a powerful transformer-based model with parameter-free interpolation at zero-shot weather downscaling. We find that this Swin-Transformer-based approach mostly outperforms models with neural operator layers in terms of average error metrics, whereas an Enhanced Super-Resolution Generative Adversarial Network-based approach is better than most models in terms of capturing the physics of the ground truth data. We suggest their use in future work as strong baselines.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Pulsed Thermal Tomography Nondestructive Examination of Additively Manufactured Reactor Materials and Components (Final Technical Report)

Metal Additive Manufacturing (AM) is a promising method for cost-efficient fabrication of complex shape structures for applications in harsh environment, such as in a nuclear reactor. However, internal defects (pores) occur in high-strength AM alloys, which are manufactured with Laser Powder Bed Fusion (LPBF) AM method. Pulsed Infrared Thermography (PIT) is an efficient nondestructive evaluation (NDE) method to examine actual structures, because this method offers one-sided non-contact measurements, and fast processing of large sample areas. However, imaging of material defects, particularly defects with sizes at microscopic level, is challenging. In this report, we benchmark the performance of several Unsupervised Learning (UL) algorithms designed to enhance imaging of microscopic defects in metals with PIT. UL aims to learn the latent principal patterns (dictionaries) in PIT data to detect defects with minimal human supervision. Performance of Independent Component Analysis (ICA), Sparse Coding (SC), Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) was compared using F-score, UL model training time and defects reconstruction time. We obtained the average F-score of 0.75, and a highest F-score of 0.89 for the EFA algorithm. Overall, EFA outperforms other UL algorithms considered in this study. In another approach, we investigate Thermal Tomography (TT), which is a computational method for reconstruction of depth profile of internal material defects from PIT nondestructive evaluation (NDE). TT algorithm obtains depth reconstructions of thermal effusivity, which has been shown to provide visualization of subsurface internals defects in metals. In many applications, one needs to determine the defect shape and orientation from reconstructed effusivity images. Interpretation of TT images is non-trivial because of blurring, which increases with depth due to heat diffusion-based nature of image formation. We have developed a deep learning convolutional neural network (CNN) to classify size and orientation of subsurface material defects in TT images. CNN was trained with TT images produced with computer simulations of 2D metallic structures (thin plates) containing elliptical subsurface voids. Performance of CNN was investigated using test TT images developed with computer simulations of plates containing elliptical defects, and defects with shape imported from scanning electron microscopy (SEM) images. CNN demonstrated the ability to classify radii and angular orientation of elliptical defects in previously unseen test TT images. We have also demonstrated that CNN trained on TT images of elliptical defects is capable of classifying shape and orientation of irregular defects. Training the CNN on irregular defect shapes instead of on elliptical shapes would make the resulting classifications more descriptive of actual defect shapes. However, this requires a much higher volume of SEM images of material defects, which are difficult to obtain because of random occurrence of defects in LPBF. To address this challenge, we developed a generative adversarial network (GAN) to augment the existing dataset of SEM defect images. The GAN model is demonstrated to create novel yet realistic defect shapes that can be used as input for simulated PTT images to train CNN. We also investigate several approaches based on Gaussian Random Circle and Bezier Curves for constructing parametric models of irregular-shape defects.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

PRISTINE: An Emulation Platform for PCB-Level Hardware Trojans

Printed circuit Boards (PCBs) are becoming increasingly vulnerable to malicious design alteration, also known as Trojan attacks, due to a distributed business model that often involves various untrusted parties. Such attacks can be mounted at various stages in the PCB life cycle. The relative ease of alteration of PCB hardware even after fabrication (due to physical access to surface-mounted critical components and traces) makes them attractive for an adversary to manipulate their functional/physical behavior for malicious intent. There is a growing need to explore viable Trojan attacks in a PCB, analyze their functional and physical characteristics (e.g., impact on power or delay), and study the effectiveness of countermeasures against these attacks. While simulation-based approaches for PCB Trojan insertion are effective at creating a large population of possible Trojans, they fail to provide functional feasibility analysis with a realistic workload for a trigger circuit. Also, they cannot estimate a Trojan’s side-channel footprint due to the unavailability of physical models of diverse PCB components. To address these deficiencies, in this paper, we present PRISTINE, a PCB-level emulation system for any integrity or physical tampering issues, specifically, hardware Trojan insertion. The need for building such an emulation platform to resolve PCB trust issues in the supply chain is also surveyed and discussed. Both custom Hardware Hacking (HaHa) boards and multiple commercial PCBs are then used to test the ability of the proposed system to emulate various hardware Trojans specially designed to exploit board-specific hardware characteristics. Experimental results on emulated board-level Trojans show that a wide range of Trojans can be successfully activated, thus enabling the expected payload effects on both types of boards to be studied and quantified. The resulting data are further analyzed to create PCB-level Trojan benchmarks. In particular, a comparative evaluation of the experimental results is used to propose a risk level metric that quantifies the probability of detection and degree of payload impact of each Trojan on a given commercial PCB.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Model Residuals as Shields: A Two-Level Formulation to Defend Smart Grids From Poisoning Attacks

The advancement of smart grids presents both vast opportunities and heightened cybersecurity risks. Data-driven defense mechanisms, though designed as a shield against these threats, can fall prey to poisoning attacks. We delve into regression settings, underscoring the imperative to fortify defenses against a spectrum of poison ratios, notably those above 0.5—an issue scarcely addressed in prior studies. Recognizing the susceptibilities of smart grids and their manipulable sensors, we exploit the very intent of poisoning attacks, compromising model accuracy, as our defense mechanism. Our proposed two-level optimization framework discerns between poisoned and authentic data based on model residuals, outperforming or matching existing methods in 72% to 77% of precision and 75% to 80% of recalls across various poisoning attacks, poison ratios, and datasets. Once the authentic data are identified, the trained model is adaptable for a variety of applications. Comprehensive evaluations on different smart grid datasets, pitted against myriad poisoning schemes, validate our methodology’s edge over existing methods. Here, we also shed light on the implications of model misspecification originating from temporal auto-correlation, a common feature in Internet of Things and smart grid data.

Adversarial machine learning (ML)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cyber risk assessment and investment optimization using game theory and ML-based anomaly detection and mitigation for wide-area control in smart grids

The electric power grid is increasingly becoming susceptible to cyber attacks that exploit vulnerabilities in the smart grid control, information, and physical layers. Successful cyber attacks can have catastrophic impacts on the social and economic well-being of any nation all over the globe. It has, thus, become imperative to secure the smart grid against such adversarial actions to ensure stable, secure, and reliable operation of the grid. The existing research and industry practices prove to be inadequate in terms of providing pragmatic and effective defense methodologies and measures for long-term cybersecurity planning and real-time cybersecurity for grid operation. For example, existing works lack models that incorporate uncertain behavior of cyber-attackers and pragmatic defense measures for cyber risk assessment and cybersecurity investment optimization which often provide unreliable and strictly qualitative solutions to these problems. At the same time, with the growing number of cyber incidents in the grid, there still exists a need to develop attack-resilient algorithms for wide-area monitoring, protection, and control (WAMPAC) applications like the wide-area voltage control systems (WAVCS) for Flexible AC Transmissions Systems (FACTS) that lack in scalable and feasible solutions from the cybersecurity perspective. This dissertation proposes novel models and methodologies for: (1) Cybersecurity planning, and (2) Cybersecurity for system operation. The cybersecurity planning is achieved through cyber risk assessment and cybersecurity resource investment optimization for long-term cybersecurity of the grid using game theory and attack-defense trees. Cybersecurity for system operation consists of development of cyber anomaly detection and mitigation algorithms for flexible AC transmission system (FACTS) controller-based wide-area voltage control systems (WAVCS) using machine learning (ML), and software defined networking-based moving target defense network routing for achieving real-time cyber-physical security for grid operations. This is followed by hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) implementation and evaluation of these attack prevention, detection, and mitigation algorithms and methodologies showcasing their feasibility in a close to real-world environment. For cybersecurity planning, a novel approach involving a combination of game theory and attack defense trees (ADT) for optimal cybersecurity resource allocation in the smart grid is proposed. This methodology involves modeling of the cyber-physical smart grid substations as ADTs, defining attacker costs, defense costs, and attack probabilities for attack access points. Using game theoretical formulation, optimal defense strategies for the defender of the system to invest cybersecurity resources in the grid are obtained. Additionally, a game-theoretic framework is developed for quantitative cyber-physical risk assessment of the grid under a dynamically changing cyber threat space and uncertain behavior of cyber attackers which is further used to optimize investments in the smart grid's cybersecurity resources. The attacker, defender, and the smart grid system are modeled while incorporating attacker-stochasticity and federal guidelines for smart grid cybersecurity. This allows quantification of threat, vulnerabilities, and attack impact of the grid for quantitative risk assessment. The defender's budget to invest in the security resources in the grid is optimized based on the strategies leading to minimum system risk. The evaluation of the proposed solutions highlight the feasibility for practical implementation of these methodologies and algorithms in the smart grid, while taking the federal requirements and guidelines for smart grid security into consideration. For achieving cybersecurity for system operation, attack prevention, detection, and mitigation algorithms and methodologies are developed specifically for FACTS-based WAVCS. Anomaly detection and mitigation in the WAVCS are achieved using algorithms based on machine learning which involves offline training and testing of ML models with CPS datasets incorporating physics-based features that allow accurate distinction between system faults and cyber attacks. For attack prevention, a methodology based on software defined network (SDN)-based moving target defense (MTD) network routing is proposed that enables prevention of Denial of Service (DoS) type attacks on the smart grid communication system. Subsequently, these methodologies and algorithms are implemented and evaluated on an HIL testbed that allows for real-time attack prevention, detection, and mitigation of emulated cyber attacks on the WAVCS in a close to real-world environment. The results show highly accurate and efficient performance of the implemented algorithms and methodologies with the smart grid system operating within the NERC's system operation limits even in the presence of DoS and data integrity cyber attacks. This work opens up future research opportunities in other directions such as (1) Expanding cybersecurity planning methodologies to real-time cyber contingency analysis with different game formulations; and (2) Applying the cybersecurity for system operation algorithms to broader categories of wide-area control applications.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗