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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2011

High-Performance 3D Articulated Robot Display

In the domain of telerobotic operations, the primary challenge facing the operator is to understand the state of the robotic platform. One key aspect of understanding the state is to visualize the physical location and configuration of the platform. As there is a wide variety of mobile robots, the requirements for visualizing their configurations vary diversely across different platforms. There can also be diversity in the mechanical mobility, such as wheeled, tracked, or legged mobility over surfaces. Adaptable 3D articulated robot visualization software can accommodate a wide variety of robotic platforms and environments. The visualization has been used for surface, aerial, space, and water robotic vehicle visualization during field testing. It has been used to enable operations of wheeled and legged surface vehicles, and can be readily adapted to facilitate other mechanical mobility solutions. The 3D visualization can render an articulated 3D model of a robotic platform for any environment. Given the model, the software receives real-time telemetry from the avionics system onboard the vehicle and animates the robot visualization to reflect the telemetered physical state. This is used to track the position and attitude in real time to monitor the progress of the vehicle as it traverses its environment. It is also used to monitor the state of any or all articulated elements of the vehicle, such as arms, legs, or control surfaces. The visualization can also render other sorts of telemetered states visually, such as stress or strains that are measured by the avionics. Such data can be used to color or annotate the virtual vehicle to indicate nominal or off-nominal states during operation. The visualization is also able to render the simulated environment where the vehicle is operating. For surface and aerial vehicles, it can render the terrain under the vehicle as the avionics sends it location information (GPS, odometry, or star tracking), and locate the vehicle over or on the terrain correctly. For long traverses over terrain, the visualization can stream in terrain piecewise in order to maintain the current area of interest for the operator without incurring unreasonable resource constraints on the computing platform. The visualization software is designed to run on laptops that can operate in field-testing environments without Internet access, which is a frequently encountered situation when testing in remote locations that simulate planetary environments such as Mars and other planetary bodies.

Powell, Mark W.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quarterly Research Performance Progress Report (Q8)

As part of Task 1, we have started by testing our modeling capabilities by reproducing isothermal DFIT simulations presented in the literature. Once satisfied with the results we have started by targeting the modeling of the DFITs at conducted at well 58-32. We have a identified a specific test (cycle 4 in zone 2) as the most interesting to be model with GEOS hydraulic fracturing module. Thus, we have first produced results with an isothermal model and adjusted model parameters to get a satisfying match with field pressure data. The, we have added thermal effects and compared the modeling results with and without thermal effects to estimate how thermal effects may influence test interpretation. Models seem to suggest that, for small volumes of fluid, thermal effects are moderate. In Task 2, we have adapted GEOS phase-field formulation to be able to simulate near-wellbore hydraulic fracture nucleation and propagation. We have devised a novel formulation that, compared to other existing ones, incorporates rock strengths. We have submitted a journal publication about our work. We are currently employing this phase-field formulation to model the experiments taking place at U Pitt and help us understand the effect of various parameters. In Task 3, we have built a model of the region surround well 16A and have started modeling stage 3 stimulation because of its simpler planar geometry. After calibrating simulation parameters using known analytical solutions, we have simulated the stage 3 stimulation using our isothermal hydraulic fracturing module, varying the permeability field, the stress conditions including different physics to get a better understanding of the numerical challenges and of the effects of varying these parameters on the simulation results. In Task 4 laboratory experimentation, a set of specialized drilling and injection tools has been customized and constructed to accommodate an inclined well with an orientation of up to 30 degrees relative to material anisotropy or principal stress axes. These inclined samples have also undergone thermal stress and hydraulic fracturing at a temperature of 190 degrees Celsius. Furthermore, both vertical and deviated sampling testing setups enable an extended analysis of post-peak pressure behaviors, facilitating post-test pressure analyses such as the G-function, step rate, and fracture reopening measurements. Thus, the key components of in-situ stress estimation can be extracted and validated through our experiment, providing a solid foundation for validating existing in-situ stress estimation theories or proposing new ones. Simultaneously, we are integrating computer vision techniques with traditional experimental fracture observation methods such as multi-overcore/slicing and water-penetration fracture observation. This combination will prove beneficial in populating the hydraulic fracture patterns database, generated under challenging EGS conditions. This approach aims to deepen our understanding of the complexities in EGS reservoirs and pave the way for future data-driven investigations. Additionally, PITT has also equipped the ELE International compression machine, which is now prepared for conducting indirect tensile and fracture toughness tests. These tests will aid in characterizing how rock fabrics influence the resulting fracture patterns. Additionally, we have completed the required personnel training and gained access to Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) and Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy (EDS) for conducting more detailed characterization and analysis of rock fabrics, as well as the examination of thermal and hydraulically induced fracture patterns. Thus, the PITT team has effectively demonstrated the capabilities of our experimental apparatuses in exploring the thermal effects, well deviation angles, material anisotropy, and operational choices (such as circulation rate, injection fluid viscosity, and injection rate) and their impact on pressure responses and fracture trajectories under the Utah FORGE conditions.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1999

Postural Regulation of Muscle Sympathetic Nerve Activity Before and After Simulated and Actual Microgravity Deconditioning

The etiology of orthostatic intolerance after spaceflight is multifaceted. Morphological adaptations, in particular cardiac atrophy, are likely to magnify the decrease in stroke volume that occurs with reductions in cardiac filling pressure when standing. Neural adaptations may be inferred as well, as reductions in carotid-cardiac baroreflex responsiveness have been reported following bedrest deconditioning and spaceflight. Neural control of vascular resistance has not been studied directly when orthostatic intolerance is florid in the hours following spaceflight. However, the increases in systemic vascular resistance and plasma catecholamines during orthostatic stress are inappropriately low in orthostatically intolerant subjects following spaceflight, suggesting that deficits in the regulation of vascular resistance may be associated with hypoadrenergic function. The studies described in this abstract were designed to test this hypothesis.

Pawelczyk, J. A.↗
NASA NTRS1995

A study of the relationship between mineral content and mechanical properties of turkey gastrocnemius tendon

The vertebrate skeletal system undergoes adaptation in response to external forces, but the relation between the skeletal changes and such forces is not understood. In this context, the variation in the amount and location of calcification has been compared with changes in mechanical properties of the normally mineralizing turkey gastrocnemius tendon using ash weight measurements, X-ray radiography, and mechanical testing. Radiographic evidence from 12- to 17-week-old birds showed calcification in only portions of gastrocnemius tendons proximal to the tarsometatarsal joint. Mechanical testing of these dissected proximal regions demonstrated an increased ultimate stress and modulus and a decreased maximum strain that appeared to parallel calcification. Further, stress-strain curves of portions of uncalcified turkey gastrocnemius tendon were shaped similar to those of other typical unmineralized tendon curves while highly calcified tendons yielded curves resembling those of bone. The proximal portions of the gastrocnemius where mineralization begins were observed to have a decreased tendon cross-sectional area compared with distal portions which do not mineralize. Based on the resultant measures of mineral content and location and mechanical properties, it is hypothesized that increased calcification is a result of increased stresses at certain locations of the tendon, perhaps the consequence of the natural forces exerted by the large leg muscles of the bird into which the gastrocnemius inserts. More specifically, tendon calcification may be the result of stress-induced exposure of charged sites on the surfaces of collagen molecules, fibrils, or fibers so that deposition of mineral and subsequent mechanical reinforcement occur in the tissue.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS).

Non-NASA Center↗
DOE OSTI2021

Conditional filamentation as an adaptive trait of bacteria and its ecological significance in soils

Bacteria can regulate cell morphology in response to environmental conditions, altering their physiological and metabolic characteristics to improve survival. Conditional filamentation, in which cells suspend division while continuing lateral growth, is a strategy with a range of adaptive benefits. Here, we review the causes and consequences of conditional filamentation with respect to bacterial physiology, ecology and evolution. We describe four major benefits from conditional filamentation: stress tolerance, surface colonization, gradient spanning and the facilitation of biotic interactions. Adopting a filamentous growth habit involves fitness trade-offs which are also examined. We focus on the role of conditional filamentation in soil habitats, where filamentous morphotypes are highly prevalent and where environmental heterogeneity can benefit a conditional response. Here, to illustrate the use of information presented in our review, we tested the conditions regulating filamentation by the forest soil isolate Paraburkholderia elongata 5N T . Filamentation by P. elongata was induced at elevated phosphate concentrations, and was associated with the accumulation of intracellular polyphosphate, highlighting the role of filamentation in a phosphate-solubilizing bacterium. Conditional filamentation enables bacteria to optimize their growth and metabolism in environments that are highly variable, a trait that can impact succession, symbioses, and biogeochemistry in soil environments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2016

Automating Microbial Directed Evolution For Bioengineering Applications

From a micro-biology perspective, directed evolution is a technique that uses controlled environmental pressures to select for a desired phenotype. Directed evolution has the distinct advantage over rational design of not needing extensive knowledge of the genome or pathways associated with a microorganism to induce phenotypes. However, there are currently limitations to the applicability of this technique including being time-consuming, error-prone, and dependent on existing assays that may lack selectivity for the given phenotype. The AADEC (Autonomous Adaptive Directed Evolution Chamber) system is a proof-of-concept instrument to automate and improve the technique such that directed evolution can be used more effectively as a general bioengineering tool. A series of tests using the automated system and comparable by-hand survival assay measurements have been carried out using UV-C radiation and Escherichia coli cultures in order to demonstrate the advantages of the AADEC versus traditional implementations of directed evolution such as random mutagenesis. AADEC uses UV-C exposure as both a source of environmental stress and mutagenesis, so in order to evaluate the UV-C tolerance obtained from the cultures, a manual UV-C exposure survival assay was developed alongside the device to compare the survival fractions at a fixed dosage. This survival assay involves exposing E. coli to UV-C radiation using a custom-designed exposure hood to control the flux and dose. Surviving cells are counted then transferred to the next iteration and so on for several iterations to calculate the survival fractions for each exposure iteration.This survival assay primarily serves as a baseline for the AADEC device, allowing quantification of the differences between the AADEC system over the manual approach. The primary data of comparison is survival fractions; this is obtained by optical density and plate counts in the manual assay and by optical density growth curve fits pre- and post-exposure in the automated case. This data can then be compiled to calculate trends over the iterations to characterize increasing UV-C resistance of the E.coli strains. The observed trends are statistically indistinguishable through several iterations from both sources.

Bioengineering↗
NASA NTRS2015

Risk of Crew Adverse Health Event Due to Altered Immune Response

Determining the effect of space travel on the human immune system has proven to be extremely challenging. Limited opportunities for in-flight studies, varying mission durations, technical and logistical obstacles, small subject numbers, and a broad range of potential assays have contributed to this problem. Additionally, the inherent complexity of the immune system, with its vast array of cell populations, sub-populations, diverse regulatory molecules, and broad interactions with other physiological systems, makes determining precise variables to measure very difficult. There is also the challenge of determining the clinical significance of any observed immune alterations. Will such a change lead to disease, or is it a transient subclinical observation related to short-term stress? The effect of this problem may be observed by scanning publications associated with immunity and spaceflight, which began to appear during the 1970s. Although individually they are each valid studies, the comprehensive literature to date suffers from widely varying sampling methods and assay techniques, low subject counts, and sometimes a disparate focus on narrow aspects of immunity. The most clinically relevant data are derived from in-flight human studies, which have demonstrated altered cell-mediated immunity and reactivation of latent herpes viruses. Much more data are available from post-flight testing of humans, with clear evidence of altered cytokine production patterns, altered leukocyte distribution, continued latent viral reactivation, and evidence of dramatically altered virus-specific immunity. It is unknown if post-flight assessments relate to the in-flight condition or are a response to landing stress and readaptation. In-flight culture of cells has clearly demonstrated that immune cells are gravity-sensitive and display altered functional characteristics. It is unknown if these data are related to in vivo immune cell function or are an artifact of microgravity culture. Ground analog testing of humans and animals, as well as microgravity-analog cell culture, has demonstrated utility. However, in all cases, it is not known with certainty if these data would reflect similar testing during space travel. Given their ready availability, ground analogs may be extremely useful for assay development and the evaluation of potential countermeasures. In general, the evidence base suffers from widely disparate studies on small numbers of subjects that do not directly correlate well with each other or spaceflight itself. Also lacking are investigations of the effect of gender on adaption to spaceflight. This results in significant knowledge 'gaps' that must be filled by future studies to completely determine any clinical risk related to immunity for human exploration-class space missions. These gaps include a significant lack of in-flight data, particularly during long-duration space missions. The International Space Station represents an excellent science platform with which to address this knowledge gap. Other knowledge gaps include lack of a single validated ground analog for the phenomenon and a lack of flight-compatible laboratory equipment capable of monitoring astronauts (for either clinical or research purposes). However, enough significant data exist, as described in this manuscript, to warrant addressing this phenomenon during the utilization phase of the ISS. A recent Space Shuttle investigation has confirmed the 31 in-flight nature of immune dysregulation, demonstrating that it is not merely a post-flight phenomenon. Several current studies are ongoing onboard the ISS that should thoroughly characterize the phenomenon. NASA recognizes that if spaceflight-associated immune dysregulation persists during exploration flights in conjunction with other dangers, such as high-energy radiation, the result may be a significant clinical risk. This emphasizes the need for a continued integrated comprehensive approach to determining the effect of prolonged spaceflight, separated from transient launch and landing stresses, on human immunity. After such studies, the phenomenon will be understood, and, hopefully, a monitoring strategy will have been developed that could be used to monitor the effectiveness of countermeasure

Crucian, Brian↗
DOE OSTI2023

Shear deformation of pure-Cu and Cu/Nb nano-laminates using micromechanical testing

Solid phase processing by introducing shear deformation into materials can result in unique microstructure evolution and enhanced mechanical properties, especially for immiscible systems such as Cu/Nb. To better understand the correlation between microstructure and deformation behavior during shear, a dedicated testing design of stress localization at predicted sites is necessary. In this study, a specialized S-shaped specimen geometry is implemented to apply localized simple-shear loading in pure-Cu and Cu/Nb accumulative roll-bonded nanolaminates. The nanoscale microstructure and proximity of interfaces in Cu/Nb offer a ~2.8-fold increase in shear stresses than pure-Cu. In pure-Cu, the plastic instability causes shear banding and an in-plane lattice rotation. In Cu/Nb, a partial bending of the interfaces occurred, resulting in a localized lattice rotation. The adapted geometry for micro-scale specimens thus successfully captures the shear deformation at predicted sites in two distinct material systems and could potentially be a powerful technique to study the deformation mechanisms.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Real-time Condition Monitoring of Power Modules in Grid-tied Power Converter

This paper proposes and demonstrates a real-time condition monitoring method using gate driver integrated sensing circuits and sensor fusion algorithms. Power device on-state voltage (VDSon) measurement and junction temperature (Tj) sensing circuits with high noise immunity are built and integrated into an adaptive gate driver circuit for power modules. Considering the inherently noisy measurement environment of power converters, VDSon together with several other measurements are fused together to provide accurate descriptions of the stress and degradation of each power device. Furthermore, the gate driver circuit can actively control the turn-on gate voltage (VGSon) for each device based on the stress and degradation state. The proposed sensing circuits and power device condition assessment algorithms are implemented in a 75 KVA grid-tied power converter. This paper focuses on the sensing circuits hardware designs and testing in grid-tied power converter prototype and device stress index generation. More comprehensive results on the device state of health index generation will be presented in future work.

Fan, Junchong↗
NASA NTRS2023

AgMIP-Wheat Multi-Model Simulations on Climate Change Impact and Adaptation for Global Wheat

The climate change impact and adaptation simulations from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for wheat provide a unique dataset of multi-model ensemble simulations for 60 representative global locations covering all global wheat mega environments. The multi-model ensemble reported here has been thoroughly benchmarked against a large number of experimental data, including different locations, growing season temperatures, atmospheric CO2 concentration, heat stress scenarios, and their interactions. In this paper, we describe the main characteristics of this global simulation dataset. Detailed cultivar, crop management, and soil datasets were compiled for all locations to drive 32 wheat growth models. The dataset consists of 30-year simulated data including 25 output variables for nine climate scenarios, including Baseline (1980-2010) with 360 or 550 ppm CO2, Baseline +2oC or +4oC with 360 or 550 ppm CO2, a mid-century climate change scenario (RCP8.5, 571 ppm CO2), and 1.5°C (423 ppm CO2) and 2.0oC (487 ppm CO2) warming above the pre-industrial period (HAPPI). This global simulation dataset can be used as a benchmark from a well-tested multi-model ensemble in future analyses of global wheat. Also, resource use efficiency (e.g., for radiation, water, and nitrogen use) and uncertainty analyses under different climate scenarios can be explored at different scales. The DOI for the dataset is 10.5281/zenodo.4027033 (AgMIP-Wheat, 2020), and all the data are available on the data repository of Zenodo (http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4027033). Two scientific publications have been published based on some of these data here.

Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement↗
NASA NTRS1986

Dexamethasone mimicks the antimotion sickness effects of amphetamine and scopolamine

Based on preliminary suggestions that individual differences in susceptibility to stressful motion might be related to physiological differences in responses of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis, the efficacy of dexamethasone and metyrapone is tested in subjects exposed to cross-coupled accelerative semicircular canal stimulation on a rotating chair. Subjects given 0.5 mg of dexamethasone every 6 h for 48 h could endure 80 percent more stressful motion (P = 0.03) in a within-subjects design study, whereas, no improvement followed treatment with 750 mg of metryapone every 4 h for 24 h. The efficacy of dexamethasone might be explained in terms of its neurochemical actions on several neurotransmitter systems which are also modulated by such classical antimotion sickness drugs as amphetamine and scopolamine. Because dexamethasone induces adaptive changes within the central nervous system it may prove superior to scopolamine and amphetamine which possess significant side effects, are short acting, and rapidly tolerated.

Kohl, Randall Lee↗
NASA NTRS2006

NASA Tech Briefs, June 2006

Topics covered include: Magnetic-Field-Response Measurement-Acquisition System; Platform for Testing Robotic Vehicles on Simulated Terrain; Interferometer for Low-Uncertainty Vector Metrology; Rayleigh Scattering for Measuring Flow in a Nozzle Testing Facility; "Virtual Feel" Capaciflectors; FETs Based on Doped Polyaniline/Polyethylene Oxide Fibers; Miniature Housings for Electronics With Standard Interfaces; Integrated Modeling Environment; Modified Recursive Hierarchical Segmentation of Data; Sizing Structures and Predicting Weight of a Spacecraft; Stress Testing of Data-Communication Networks; Framework for Flexible Security in Group Communications; Software for Collaborative Use of Large Interactive Displays; Microsphere Insulation Panels; Single-Wall Carbon Nanotube Anodes for Lithium Cells; Tantalum-Based Ceramics for Refractory Composites; Integral Flexure Mounts for Metal Mirrors for Cryogenic Use; Templates for Fabricating Nanowire/Nanoconduit- Based Devices; Measuring Vapors To Monitor the State of Cure of a Resin; Partial-Vacuum-Gasketed Electrochemical Corrosion Cell; Theodolite Ring Lights; Integrating Terrain Maps Into a Reactive Navigation Strategy; Reducing Centroid Error Through Model-Based Noise Reduction; Adaptive Modeling Language and Its Derivatives; Stable Satellite Orbits for Global Coverage of the Moon; and Low-Cost Propellant Launch From a Tethered Balloon

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1995

Active Control of Fan Noise-Feasibility Study. Volume 2: Canceling Noise Source-Design of an Acoustic Plate Radiator Using Piezoceramic Actuators

The feasibility of using acoustic plate radiators powered by piezoceramic thin sheets as canceling sources for active control of aircraft engine fan noise is demonstrated. Analytical and numerical models of actuated beams and plates are developed and validated. An optimization study is performed to identify the optimum combination of design parameters that maximizes the plate volume velocity for a given resonance frequency. Fifteen plates with various plate and actuator sizes, thicknesses, and bonding layers were fabricated and tested using results from the optimization study. A maximum equivalent piston displacement of 0.39 mm was achieved with the optimized plate samples tested with only one actuator powered, corresponding to a plate deflection at the center of over 1 millimeter. This is very close to the deflection required for a full size engine application and represents a 160-fold improvement over previous work. Experimental results further show that performance is limited by the critical stress of the piezoceramic actuator and bonding layer rather than by the maximum moment available from the actuator. Design enhancements are described in detail that will lead to a flight-worthy acoustic plate radiator by minimizing actuator tensile stresses and reducing nonlinear effects. Finally, several adaptive tuning methods designed to increase the bandwidth of acoustic plate radiators are analyzed including passive, active, and semi-active approaches. The back chamber pressurization and volume variation methods are investigated experimentally and shown to be simple and effective ways to obtain substantial control over the resonance frequency of a plate radiator. This study shows that piezoceramic-based plate radiators can be a viable acoustic source for active control of aircraft engine fan noise.

Pla, F. G.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Adaptive Determination of the Optimal Exchange Location in Wall-Modeled Large-Eddy Simulation

Wall-modeled large-eddy simulation introduces a modeling interface (or exchange location) separating the wall-modeled layer from the rest of the domain. The current state-of-the-art is to rely on user expertise when choosing where to place this modeling interface, whether this choice is tied to the grid or not. This paper presents a postprocessing algorithm that determines the exchange location systematically. The algorithm is based on a model for the error in the predicted wall shear stress and a model for the computational cost, and then finds the exchange location that minimizes a combination of the two. Here, the algorithm is tested both a priori and a posteriori using an equilibrium wall model for the flow over a wall-mounted hump, a boundary layer in an adverse pressure gradient, and a shock/boundary-layer interaction. The algorithm produces exchange locations that mostly agree with what an experienced user would suggest, with thinner wall-modeled layers in nonequilibrium flow regions and thicker wall-modeled layers where the boundary layer is closer to equilibrium. This suggests that the algorithm should be useful in simulations of realistic and highly complex geometries.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2014

Nutritional Status Assessment (SMO 016E)

The Nutritional Status Assessment Supplemental Medical Objective was initiated to expand nominal clinical nutrition testing of ISS astronauts, and to gain a better understanding of the time course of changes in nutritional status during flight. The primary activity of this effort was collecting blood and urine samples during flight for analysis after return to Earth. Samples were subjected to a battery of tests. The resulting data provide a comprehensive survey of how nutritional status and related systems are affected by 4-6 months of space flight. Analysis of these data has yielded many findings to date, including: Vision. Documented evidence that biochemical markers involved in one-carbon metabolism were altered in crewmembers who experienced vision-related issues during and after flight (1). Iron, Oxidative Stress, and Bone. In-flight data document a clear association of increased iron stores, markers of oxidative damage to DNA, and bone loss (2). Exercise. Documented that well-nourished crewmembers performing heavy resistance exercise returned from ISS with bone mineral densities unchanged from preflight (3). Furthermore, the response of bone to space flight and exercise countermeasures was the same in men and women (4). Body Mass. Crewmembers lose 2-5% of their body mass in the first month of flight, and maintain the lower body mass during flight (5). Additionally, the two devices to measure body mass on orbit, the SLAMMD and BMMD, provide similar results (5). Cytokines. Findings indicated that a pattern of persistent physiological adaptations occurs during space flight that includes shifts in immune and hormonal regulation (6). Fish/Bone. Documented a relationship between fish intake and bone loss in astronauts (that is, those who ate more fish lost less bone) (7). Vitamin K. Documented that in generally well-fed and otherwise healthy individuals, vitamin K status and bone vitamin K-dependent proteins are unaffected by space flight (and bed rest) (8). Testosterone. Documented that blood concentrations of testosterone were unchanged during flight, but a transient decline occurred after landing (9). Calcium. Nutrition SMO data contributed to the ISS Program by helping understand how and why the Urine Processor Assembly clogged with calcium sulfate precipitate (10). Sample Processing. Ground-based analytical testing results have also been published (11).

Smith, S. M.↗
NASA NTRS1991

The fossil record of evolution: Data on diversification and extinction

Understanding of the evolution of complex life, and of the roles that changing terrestrial and extraterrestrial environments played in life's history, is dependent upon synthetic knowledge of the fossil record. Paleontologists have been describing fossils for more that two centuries. However, much of this information is dispersed in monographs and journal articles published throughout the world. Over the past several years, this literature was surveyed, and a data base on times of origination and extinction of fossil genera was compiled. The data base, which now holds approximately 32,000 genera, covers all taxonomic groups of marine animals, incorporates the most recent taxonomic assignments, and uses a detailed global time framework that can resolve originations and extinctions to intervals averaging three million years in duration. These data can be used to compile patterns of global biodiversity, measure rates of taxic evolution, and test hypotheses concerning adaptive radiations, mass extinctions, etc. Thus far, considerable effort was devoted to using the data to test the hypothesis of periodicity of mass extinction. Rates of extinction measured from the data base have also been used to calibrate models of evolutionary radiations in marine environments. It was observed that new groups, or clades of animals (i.e., orders and classes) tend to reach appreciable diversity first in nearshore environments and then to radiate in more offshore environments; during decline, these clades may disappear from the nearshore while persisting in offshore, deep water habitats. These observations have led to suggestions that there is something special about stressful or perturbed environments that promotes the evolution of novel kinds of animals that can rapidly replace their predecessors. The numerical model that is being investigated to study this phenomenon treats environments along onshore-offshore gradients as if they were discrete habitats. Other aspects of this investigation are presented.

Sepkoski, J. J., Jr.↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Multi-Model Framework for Assessing Long- and Short-Term Climate Influences on the Electric Grid

Climate change influences many aspects of the electric grid, but prior work and industry practices often ignore the potential effects of changing climate, or they only consider a single effect or individual effects in isolation. Challenges vary with each grid and include adapting to long-term trends such as changing temperature and precipitation or shorter-term events such as drought or storms that could increase in frequency or intensity. Here we present a multi-model framework designed to analyze the effects of long and short-term climate impacts in combination. This framework couples capacity expansion and production cost models with hydrologic models and future climate scenario data to analyze alternative climate and energy futures at high spatial, temporal, and process resolutions. Furthermore, we constructed and evaluated the results of a suite of simulated scenarios exploring climate impacts on capacity investment and stress-tested the resulting future infrastructures using hourly dispatch modeling under alternative drought and load conditions. We demonstrate the approach through a case study of the U.S. Western Interconnection, where climate impacts depend on interactions between temperature-induced load, water availability for hydropower, technology competitiveness, and demand flexibility. Changes in 2038 generating capacity range from -8.5-16.6 GW, and changes in 2038 transmission capacity range from -1-2 GW. Capacity increases are driven by higher load from higher temperatures, while capacity reductions can be achieved in scenarios with higher future hydropower availability and increased demand flexibility. Scenarios requiring additional capacity cost an additional $\$5$-$\$17$ billion (discounted) from 2018 to 2038; however, scenarios with capacity reductions cost $\$1$-$\$18$ billion less. Stress tests on four 2038 infrastructures demonstrated that the identified systems were able to serve at least 99.999% of load and 99.96% of reserves. However, drought and unexpected high-load conditions can result in reduced capacity to respond to contingency events we did not model. Although these results are system and scenario specific, they highlight the importance of considering multiple climate change impacts simultaneously in long-term planning efforts and demonstrate a multi-model, multiscale approach that can be flexibly applied to any system and set of climate change concerns.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning-Based Process Control for Injection Molding of Recycled Polypropylene

The increased interest in artificial intelligence in manufacturing has driven the adoption of machine learning to optimize processes and improve efficiency. A key challenge in injection molding is the variability of recycled materials, which affects part quality and processing stability. This study presents a novel closed-loop process control approach for injection molding, leveraging machine learning to adaptively predict processing inputs and quality outcomes. The methodology was tested on five blends of recycled polypropylene (rPP), using artificial neural networks (ANNs), linear regression, and polynomial regression to model the relationships between material properties and process parameters. The dataset was split 80/20 into training and testing sets. The ANN model was implemented using TensorFlow and Keras, with six hidden layers of 32 neurons per layer, ReLU activation, and an Adam optimizer. Empirical tuning and early stopping were used to optimize performance and prevent overfitting. Predictions were evaluated based on mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), and percentage error. The results showed that yield stress, ultimate elongation, and part weight were accurately predicted within a 5% error for linear and polynomial regression models and within a 10% error for the ANN. However, modulus predictions were less reliable, with errors of ~11% for ANN and linear regression and ~40% for polynomial regression, reflecting the inherent variability of this property in rPP blends. Predictions of processing inputs had errors ranging from 3% to 25%, depending on the model and response variable. No single modeling approach was consistently superior across all responses, highlighting the complexity of the relationship between material properties, process parameters, and quality metrics. Overall, the work demonstrates that closed-loop process control, powered by machine learning, can effectively predict key quality parameters in injection molding of recycled materials. The proposed approach can improve process stability and material utilization, facilitating increased adoption of sustainable materials.

Krantz, Joshua↗