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At least 127 records · Page 7

An Assessment of Actual and Potential Building Climate Zone Change and Variability From the Last 30 Years Through 2100 Using NASA's MERRA and CMIP5 Simulations

Background: In the US, residential and commercial building infrastructure combined consumes about 40% of total energy usage and emits about 39% of total CO2 emission (DOE/EIA "Annual Energy Outlook 2013"). Building codes, as used by local and state enforcement entities are typically tied to the dominant climate within an enforcement jurisdiction classified according to various climate zones. These climate zones are based upon a 30-year average of local surface observations and are developed by DOE and ASHRAE. Establishing the current variability and potential changes to future building climate zones is very important for increasing the energy efficiency of buildings and reducing energy costs and emissions in the future. Objectives: This paper demonstrates the usefulness of using NASA's Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) atmospheric data assimilation to derive the DOE/ASHRAE building climate zone maps and then using MERRA to define the last 30 years of variability in climate zones for the Continental US. An atmospheric assimilation is a global atmospheric model optimized to satellite, atmospheric and surface in situ measurements. Using MERRA as a baseline, we then evaluate the latest Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) climate model Version 5 runs to assess potential variability in future climate zones under various assumptions. Methods: We derive DOE/ASHRAE building climate zones using surface and temperature data products from MERRA. We assess these zones using the uncertainties derived by comparison to surface measurements. Using statistical tests, we evaluate variability of the climate zones in time and assess areas in the continental US for statistically significant trends by region. CMIP 5 produced a data base of over two dozen detailed climate model runs under various greenhouse gas forcing assumptions. We evaluate the variation in building climate zones for 3 different decades using an ensemble and quartile statistics to provide an assessment of potential building climate zone changes relative to the uncertainties demonstrated using MERRA. Findings and Conclusions: These results show that there is a statistically significant increase in the area covered by warmer climate zones and a tendency for a reduction of area in colder climate zones in some limited regions. The CMIP analysis shows that models vary from relatively little building climate zone change for the least sensitive and conservation assumptions to a warming of at most 3 zones for certain areas, particularly the north central US by the end of the 21st century.

Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.↗

Low Ozone over Europe Doesn't Mean the Sky Is Falling, Its Actually Rising

Data Sources: NASA Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) (O3 profiles and columns), NASA Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) Chemistry and Transport Model (calculated O3depletion), and MERRA Tropopause Heights. Technical Description of Figures: The left graphics show MLS northern hemisphere stratospheric column ozone on Feb. 1, 2016. Very low columns are seen over the UK and Europe (<225 DU, inside dashed circle). The lower graphic shows the GMI-calculated O3 depletion. It's very small, suggesting the low O3 does not indicate significant depletion. The right graphics show how the high tropopause height in this region explains the observed low ozone. The lower panel shows that the high tropopause on Feb. 1 lifts the O3 profile compared to a typical profile found earlier in winter. This motion lifts the profile to lower pressures thus reducing the total column. The GMI Model shows only 4 Dobson Units (DU) of O3 depletion even though the column is more than 100 DU lower than one month earlier. Scientific significant and societal relevance: To quantitatively understand anthropogenic impacts to the stratospheric ozone layer, we must be able to distinguish between low ozone caused by ozone depleting substances and that caused by natural dynamical variability in the atmosphere. Observations and realistic simulations of atmospheric composition are both required in order to separate natural and anthropogenic ozone variability.

Stratospheric↗

Comparison of High-Performance Fiber Materials Properties in Simulated and Actual Space Environments

A variety of high-performance fibers, including Kevlar, Nomex, Vectran, and Spectra, have been tested for durability in the space environment, mostly the low Earth orbital environment. These materials have been tested in yarn, tether/cable, and fabric forms. Some material samples were tested in a simulated space environment, such as the Atomic Oxygen Beam Facility and solar simulators in the laboratory. Other samples were flown on the International Space Station as part of the Materials on International Space Station Experiment. Mass loss due to atomic oxygen erosion and optical property changes due to ultraviolet radiation degradation are given. Tensile test results are also presented, including where moisture loss in a vacuum had an impact on tensile strength.

Finckenor, M. M.↗

So What Do People Actually Do?

I is often said that to err is human. It's true that failures can be traced to human limitation, but what's more important is that all successes, all safe operations are the result of human capabilities. This talk highlights the resilience people bring to aviation operations and discusses ways to change the common narrative that people are the creators of safety rather than only the source of error and failure.

safety↗

Progressive collapse analysis of stiffened panel structure with consideration of actual welding distortion and residual stresses

To date, inclusion of welding distortion and residual stresses in determining the strength of marine structures is based on empirical formulations due to welding complexity. In this study, a more feasible numerical model was developed from the perspective of inherent strain theory. The accuracy of this simplified numerical model was confirmed by transient thermo-elastic–plastic finite element analysis using a novel dynamic mesh refining and iterative substructure method which is 50 times faster than conventional finite element method. Welding distortion by the two numerical approaches was validated with experimental measurement. The collapse analyses indicated that the inherent strain model predicted a compressive strength and load-displacement curve with high accuracy, as validated by the transient thermo-mechanical model. The global stiffness and the ultimate strength of the welded structure would be overestimated by about 22% if no welding effects were considered. The proposed computation procedure for determining the ultimate strength of welded structures is accurate, simple, and practical and enables improvement of ultimate strength through optimization of welding joint design to reduce the welding residual stress and distortion.

Huang, Hui↗

Reliability of COPVs Accounting for Margin of Safety on Design Burst

In this paper, the stress rupture reliability of Carbon/Epoxy Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPVs) is examined utilizing the classic Phoenix model and accounting for the differences between the design and the actual burst pressure, and the liner contribution effects. Stress rupture life primarily depends upon the fiber stress ratio which is defined as the ratio of stress in fibers at the maximum expected operating pressure to actual delivered fiber strength. The actual delivered fiber strength is calculated using the actual burst pressures of vessels established through burst tests. However, during the design phase the actual burst pressure is generally not known and to estimate the reliability of the vessels calculations are usually performed based upon the design burst pressure only. Since the design burst is lower than the actual burst, this process yields a much higher value for the stress ratio and consequently a conservative estimate for the reliability. Other complications arise due to the fact that the actual burst pressure and the liner contributions have inherent variability and therefore must be treated as random variables in order to compute the stress rupture reliability. Furthermore, the model parameters, which have to be established based on stress rupture tests of subscale vessels or coupons, have significant variability as well due to limited available data and hence must be properly accounted for. In this work an assessment of reliability of COPVs including both parameter uncertainties and physical variability inherent in liner and overwrap material behavior is made and estimates are provided in terms of degree of uncertainty in the actual burst pressure and the liner load sharing.

Murthy, Pappu L.N.↗

Battery Cell By-Pass Circuit

The invention is a circuit and method of limiting the charging current voltage from a power supply net work applied to an individual cell of a plurality of cells making up a battery being charged in series. It is particularly designed for use with batteries that can be damaged by overcharging, such as Lithium-ion type batteries. In detail. the method includes the following steps: 1) sensing the actual voltage level of the individual cell; 2) comparing the actual voltage level of the individual cell with a reference value and providing an error signal representative thereof; and 3) by-passing the charging current around individual cell necessary to keep the individual cell voltage level generally equal a specific voltage level while continuing to charge the remaining cells. Preferably this is accomplished by by-passing the charging current around the individual cell if said actual voltage level is above the specific voltage level and allowing the charging current to the individual cell if the actual voltage level is equal or less than the specific voltage level. In the step of bypassing the charging current, the by-passed current is transferred at a proper voltage level to the power supply. The by-pass circuit a voltage comparison circuit is used to compare the actual voltage level of the individual cell with a reference value and to provide an error signal representative thereof. A third circuit, designed to be responsive to the error signal, is provided for maintaining the individual cell voltage level generally equal to the specific voltage level. Circuitry is provided in the third circuit for bypassing charging current around the individual cell if the actual voltage level is above the specific voltage level and transfers the excess charging current to the power supply net work. The circuitry also allows charging of the individual cell if the actual voltage level is equal or less than the specific voltage level.

Evers, Jeffrey↗

Battery Cell By-Pass Circuit

The invention is a circuit and method of limiting the charging current voltage from a power supply net work applied to an individual cell of a plurality of cells making up a battery being charged in series. It is particularly designed for use with batteries that can be damaged by overcharging, such as Lithium-ion type batteries. In detail. the method includes the following steps: 1) sensing the actual voltage level of the individual cell; 2) comparing the actual voltage level of the individual cell with a reference value and providing an error signal representative thereof; and 3) by-passing the charging current around individual cell necessary to keep the individual cell voltage level generally equal a specific voltage level while continuing to charge the remaining cells. Preferably this is accomplished by by-passing the charging current around the individual cell if said actual voltage level is above the specific voltage level and allowing the charging current to the individual cell if the actual voltage level is equal or less than the specific voltage level. In the step of bypassing the charging current, the by-passed current is transferred at a proper voltage level to the power supply. The by-pass circuit a voltage comparison circuit is used to compare the actual voltage level of the individual cell with a reference value and to provide an error signal representative thereof. A third circuit, designed to be responsive to the error signal, is provided for maintaining the individual cell voltage level generally equal to the specific voltage level. Circuitry is provided in the third circuit for bypassing charging current around the individual cell if the actual voltage level is above the specific voltage level and transfers the excess charging current to the power supply net work. The circuitry also allows charging of the individual cell if the actual voltage level is equal or less than the specific voltage level.

Susan J Mumaw↗

Convective Weather Forecast Accuracy Analysis at Center and Sector Levels

This paper presents a detailed convective forecast accuracy analysis at center and sector levels. The study is aimed to provide more meaningful forecast verification measures to aviation community, as well as to obtain useful information leading to the improvements in the weather translation capacity models. In general, the vast majority of forecast verification efforts over past decades have been on the calculation of traditional standard verification measure scores over forecast and observation data analyses onto grids. These verification measures based on the binary classification have been applied in quality assurance of weather forecast products at the national level for many years. Our research focuses on the forecast at the center and sector levels. We calculate the standard forecast verification measure scores for en-route air traffic centers and sectors first, followed by conducting the forecast validation analysis and related verification measures for weather intensities and locations at centers and sectors levels. An approach to improve the prediction of sector weather coverage by multiple sector forecasts is then developed. The weather severe intensity assessment was carried out by using the correlations between forecast and actual weather observation airspace coverage. The weather forecast accuracy on horizontal location was assessed by examining the forecast errors. The improvement in prediction of weather coverage was determined by the correlation between actual sector weather coverage and prediction. observed and forecasted Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM) data collected from June to September in 2007. CWAM zero-minute forecast data with aircraft avoidance probability of 60% and 80% are used as the actual weather observation. All forecast measurements are based on 30-minute, 60- minute, 90-minute, and 120-minute forecasts with the same avoidance probabilities. The forecast accuracy analysis for times under one-hour showed that the errors in intensity and location for center forecast are relatively low. For example, 1-hour forecast intensity and horizontal location errors for ZDC center were about 0.12 and 0.13. However, the correlation between sector 1-hour forecast and actual weather coverage was weak, for sector ZDC32, about 32% of the total variation of observation weather intensity was unexplained by forecast; the sector horizontal location error was about 0.10. The paper also introduces an approach to estimate the sector three-dimensional actual weather coverage by using multiple sector forecasts, which turned out to produce better predictions. Using Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model for this approach, the correlations between actual observation and the multiple sector forecast model prediction improved by several percents at 95% confidence level in comparison with single sector forecast.

Wang, Yao↗

Method and system for fault accommodation of machines

A method for multi-objective fault accommodation using predictive modeling is disclosed. The method includes using a simulated machine that simulates a faulted actual machine, and using a simulated controller that simulates an actual controller. A multi-objective optimization process is performed, based on specified control settings for the simulated controller and specified operational scenarios for the simulated machine controlled by the simulated controller, to generate a Pareto frontier-based solution space relating performance of the simulated machine to settings of the simulated controller, including adjustment to the operational scenarios to represent a fault condition of the simulated machine. Control settings of the actual controller are adjusted, represented by the simulated controller, for controlling the actual machine, represented by the simulated machine, in response to a fault condition of the actual machine, based on the Pareto frontier-based solution space, to maximize desirable operational conditions and minimize undesirable operational conditions while operating the actual machine in a region of the solution space defined by the Pareto frontier.

Goebel, Kai Frank↗

An Empirical Study on the Use of the Rancor Microworld Simulator to Support Full-scope Data Collection

A lack of data has been identified as a major challenge in human reliability analysis (HRA). Accordingly, several institutes and researchers have tried to collect HRA data from different data sources such as actual historical measurements, expert judgements, or simulator studies. While the most recent studies predominantly focus on collecting data using full-scope simulators with actual operators, Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has begun to collect HRA data using a simplified simulator, i.e., the Rancor Microworld simulator, with student participants. Full-scope studies have been known to have several intrinsic challenges to securing enough quantity of the data due to many reasons like the high cost for performing experiments or requiring actual operators’ cooperation. The ultimate goal of INL’s effort aims to infer actual operators’ data collected from a full-scope simulator on the basis of microworld data with student subjects as well as collect additional data that could be missed in the full-scope research. As a first step to achieve this goal, this paper projects an experimental plan for investigating the differences in human performance between individuals in two groups: 1) an actual operator and 2) a student when using the Rancor Microworld simulator. A randomized factorial experiment design has been developed with two independent variables, i.e., type of scenario and type of subject. Six human performance measures, i.e., 1) time, 2) error, 3) workload, 4) situation awareness, 5) patterns of attention and 6) the number of manipulations were selected. A couple of scenarios and their procedures available to the Rancor Microworld simulator have been developed.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Compensation for primary reflector wavefront error

In a telescope having primary and secondary reflectors, wherein the actual primary reflector surface deviates from an ideal primary reflector surface, such deviation is compensated for. At least one intermediate element forms an image of the primary surface onto the secondary surface, so each point on the secondary surface corresponds to a point on the primary surface. The secondary surface is formed with a deviation from an ideal secondary surface, with the piston distance of each point on the actual secondary surface equal to the piston distance of a corresponding point on the actual primary surface from the ideal primary surface. It is found that this results in electromagnetic (e.g., light) rays which strike a deviating area of the actual primary surface being brought to the same focus as if the actual primary surface did not have a deviation from an ideal primary surface.

Meinel, Aden B.↗

Development of Non-Optimum Factors for Launch Vehicle Propellant Tank Bulkhead Weight Estimation

Non-optimum factors are used during aerospace conceptual and preliminary design to account for the increased weights of as-built structures due to future manufacturing and design details. Use of higher-fidelity non-optimum factors in these early stages of vehicle design can result in more accurate predictions of a concept s actual weights and performance. To help achieve this objective, non-optimum factors are calculated for the aluminum-alloy gores that compose the ogive and ellipsoidal bulkheads of the Space Shuttle Super-Lightweight Tank propellant tanks. Minimum values for actual gore skin thicknesses and weld land dimensions are extracted from selected production drawings, and are used to predict reference gore weights. These actual skin thicknesses are also compared to skin thicknesses predicted using classical structural mechanics and tank proof-test pressures. Both coarse and refined weights models are developed for the gores. The coarse model is based on the proof pressure-sized skin thicknesses, and the refined model uses the actual gore skin thicknesses and design detail dimensions. To determine the gore non-optimum factors, these reference weights are then compared to flight hardware weights reported in a mass properties database. When manufacturing tolerance weight estimates are taken into account, the gore non-optimum factors computed using the coarse weights model range from 1.28 to 2.76, with an average non-optimum factor of 1.90. Application of the refined weights model yields non-optimum factors between 1.00 and 1.50, with an average non-optimum factor of 1.14. To demonstrate their use, these calculated non-optimum factors are used to predict heavier, more realistic gore weights for a proposed heavy-lift launch vehicle s propellant tank bulkheads. These results indicate that relatively simple models can be developed to better estimate the actual weights of large structures for future launch vehicles.

Wu, K. Chauncey↗