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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1984

Report of the Panel on Materials

Materials and manufacturing technology are critical to advanced aircraft and permeate all disciplines. Current aircraft systems employ a variety of materials, each selected to provide the best vehicle design in terms of performance, safety, reliability, manufacturability, and life cycle cost. However, a mistake in materials selection could bankrupt an airframe or engine manufacturer. Thus, the introduction of new materials is a slow process. Generally, new materials are used initially in noncritical components until their performance in service can be confirmed. Then, as confidence grows, they are used in more and more critical applications. Finally, if appropriate, new materials are used in critical, static elements and then in dynamic components. Thus, because the nominal time for development of a conventional monolithic material ranges from 5 to 10 years there is a 10- to 15- year lag between laboratory effort and introduction into service. Therefore, to assure the availability of materials suitable for production aircraft and engines in the year 2000, the concepts already must have been identified and must be progressing along evolutionary paths toward application. Trends, actual and projected, in the use of materials for commercial engines are shown in Figure 4-1. Related military applications are projected to follow similar paths. The new actor will be composites. The panel examined a wide range of materials important to all aspects of aircraft development, airframe structures, propulsion systems and for other important aircraft subsystems. These are addressed in the body of the report in terms of the current state of the art, opportunities for improvement, and barriers to achievement of projected benefits. This is followed by projections of the progress of technology that could be realized by the year 2000 with the application of appropriate resources.

Diefendorf, Russell J.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Clean Energy Cybersecurity Accelerator Cohort 1: Authentication and Authorization

In the 2023 National Cybersecurity Strategy, the Biden-Harris Administration defines the need for a "defensible, resilient digital ecosystem where it is costlier to attack systems than defend them." The strategy cites the Clean Energy Cybersecurity Accelerator (CECA) as an exemplary effort to bolster the security and resilience of clean energy generation. These efforts help "secure the clean energy grid of the future and [generate] security best practices that extend to other critical infrastructure sectors" and promise broad and far-reaching impacts to bridge the capabilities of private industry and the needs of energy production. Cohort 1 of CECA launched in the fall of 2022 with a focus on solutions that provide strong authentication and authorization for industrial control systems to mitigate attacks on the energy grid. Authentication and authorization verify that the identity (authentication) and permissions (authorization) of a user or device are aligned with their assigned roles. Weaknesses in either can have serious repercussions. To assess the strength of Cohort 1's solutions, CECA devised threat scenarios grounded in historical precedents: the CECA team reviewed exploits from real-world case studies of state-sponsored actors to match the assessment's attack paths and targets. Cohort 1 results provided the energy industry, product vendors, and related agencies valuable insights into the efficacy and applicability of solutions in common system configurations under realistic threat scenarios. The results of the assessment highlight points for interrogation and improvement in subsequent technology iterations. CECA's evaluations are part of an ongoing conversation and collaboration to bolster U.S. cyber resilience against adversaries today and in the future.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Large-Scale Hydrogen Storage Cyber Risk Assessment

Hydrogen storage systems may become more widely deployed throughout the country, and so it is possible that individual and interconnected systems will be exposed to cyber-attacks. These events can cause physical and financial harm to employees, people in the vicinity of the facility, and the company that owns the facility. The two main ways bad actors may access information or control from a hydrogen storage facility are through information technology and operations technology devices, the former of which refers to data and information from networked devices and the latter of which refers to onsite controls for the physical system. Both types of entryways into the system should be considered when companies conduct cyber risk assessments and when regulators develop or revise relevant codes and standards. This report analyzes cybersecurity risks associated with a generic hydrogen storage system by outlining the system's purpose and the importance of its cybersecurity. The hydrogen storage system architecture and communication protocols are provided to understand potential cyber vulnerabilities. Later, an event tree analysis is performed on hydrogen operation to identify system weaknesses by outlining potential attack scenarios. This report also identifies critical cyber assets related to different hydrogen operations followed by an examination of potential threats, and the impact of cyber assets on those operational assets.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Large-Scale Hydrogen Storage Cyber Risk Assessment

Hydrogen storage systems are becoming more widely deployed throughout the country, and as their presence continues to grow, it is possible that individual and interconnected systems will be exposed to cyber-attacks. These events can cause physical and financial harm to employees, people in the vicinity, and to the company that owns the facility. The two main mechanisms malicious actors may access information or control from a hydrogen storage facility are through information technology and operations technology devices, the former of which refers to data and information from networked devices and the latter of which refers to onsite controls for the physical system. Both types of entryways into the system should be considered when facility managers conduct cyber risk assessments and when regulators develop or revise relevant codes and standards. This report analyzes cybersecurity risks applicable to a wide variety of hydrogen storage systems by outlining the system's purpose and the importance of its cybersecurity. The hydrogen storage system architecture and communication protocols are provided to understand potential cyber vulnerabilities. Later, an event tree analysis is performed on hydrogen operation to identify system weaknesses by outlining potential attack scenarios. This report also identifies critical cyber assets related to different hydrogen operations followed by an examination of potential threats, and the impact of cyber assets on those operational assets.

08 HYDROGEN↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Airspace Integration Considerations for Increasingly Autonomous Flight and Operations

There is much interest in autonomous systems and their operations. When it comes to autonomous systems, it is critical to understand various levels of proposed autonomy, reasons for selecting autonomous capabilities, certification approaches and various challenges or research needs associated with the integration of autonomous systems in the National Airspace System (NAS). Furthermore, there are levels of autonomous systems proposed for different types of aircraft including: single pilot operations, remotely piloted operations, fully autonomous operations, and multiple aircraft managed by a single, remote pilot. This preliminary article aims to provide a broad overview rather than concentrate on a specific element of autonomous flight. Hence, the focus of this article is on enabling various types of increasingly autonomous aircraft and their operations routinely within the next five to ten years, consistent with the FAA’s Info-Centric NAS (ICN) vision. Under ICN, a fully integrated information environment supports collaboration across diverse traffic management services and shifts decision-making to the most appropriate actor supported by automation. However, the roles and responsibilities of Air Traffic Services (ATS) personnel providing traditional services are likely to be very similar to today in that humans will still be responsible for majority of decision making. There is another NASA research effort beyond ICN is underway called Sky For All which is not covered in this article as it is in the planning stages.

autonomy↗
DOE OSTI2024

Measurement of the Neutron Electromagnetic Form Factor Ratio at High Momentum Transfer

The inner structure of the nucleon (proton and neutron) remains a topic of great interest in nuclear and particle physics, after many decades of study. For example, understanding the quark-gluon dynamics inside the nucleon would shed light on how 99% of the nucleon mass is created. The neutron electromagnetic form factors, Gn E and Gn M , give important insights into the neutron structure. The Super BigBite Spectrometer (SBS) program at Jefferson Lab (JLab) seeks to extend the form factor measurements for both the proton and the neutron. The neutron electric form actor, Gn E , has been historically difficult to measure due to the short lifetime of the free neutron and the small value of Gn E . The GEn-II experiment is part of the SBS program and seeks to measure Gn E , significantly increasing the high momentum transfer coverage. A newly designed polarized 3He target increased the figure of merit by three times compared to previous measurements. The analysis of this data is especially challenging due to the unprecedented high-rate environment caused by the open nature of the spectrometer with a direct line of sight to the target. This required developing new Gas Electron Multiplier (GEM) particle trackers which can cover large areas demanded by this setup and handle particle rates up to 500 kHz/cm2. Rates this high over a large area is unprecedented in particle tracking systems and came with a number of challenges. Data taken in the SBS program was critical to understanding hardware and software solutions that improved the track reconstruction efficiency to be >97% with a position resolution of 70 ?m. In previous experiments the proton electromagnetic form factors, Gp E and Gp M were measured up to Q2 = 8.5 GeV2 and Q2 = 30 GeV2, respectively, while Gn E has only been measured up to Q2 = 3.4 GeV2. The GEn-II experiment has measured the neutron form factor ratio, Gn E/Gn M, at Q2 values of 2.90, 6.50, and 9.47 GeV2 by scattering a polarized electron beam with a polarized 3He target, used here as an effective polarized neutron target, and measuring the double spin asymmetry of the cross section. Previous Gn E measurements do not extend above Q2 = 3.4 GeV2, and therefore this analysis has extended the world data by almost three times. The background correction is especially difficult at the higher Q2 settings leading to large systematic errors. As very exploratory results from this early analysis of the data, we find for Q2 = 2.90 GeV2, Gn E = 0.0157 ±stat 0.0016 ±sys 0.0011, for Q2 = 6.50 GeV2, Gn E = 0.0067 ±stat 0.0019 ±sys 0.0005, and for Q2 = 9.46 GeV2, Gn E = 0.0046 ±stat 0.0023 ±sys 0.0005. These results are compared to predictions from the Dyson-Schwinger Equations (DSE) model and a Relativistic Constituent Quark Model (RCQM).

Jeffas, Sean↗
DOE OSTI2021

Report on Next-Gen AI for Proliferation Detection Workshop: Domain-Aware Methods

The emergence of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in the modern world has impacted nearly every application imaginable. This includes nuclear proliferation detection, which offers the potential to improve existing capabilities as well as create new ones. Proliferation detection seeks to detect and characterize attempts by state and non-state actors to acquire nuclear weapons or associated technology, materials, or knowledge. Such a mission is vitally important for global stability and security but is notoriously difficult. By leveraging advances in AI, exciting opportunities exist to enhance the proliferation detection regime. The Data Science and AI portfolio within the National Nuclear Security Administration’s Office of Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation Research and Development (DNN R&D) seeks to leverage the capabilities of the Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) national laboratories and other partners to develop AI systems that can accomplish otherwise impossible tasks in support of proliferation detection. As part of its efforts, the portfolio has created a series of workshops on Next-Gen AI for Proliferation Detection to help define the requirements for suitable AI systems, share successful research and best practices, and foster connection and understanding between the relevant parties including researchers and end-users. Each workshop in the series focuses on a specific and critical aspect of AI to enable it to accomplish proliferation detection objectives. The first workshop focused on explainability techniques; the second workshop and the topic of this report, covers methods for incorporating domain awareness into AI. The Next-Gen AI for Proliferation Detection Workshop: Domain-Aware Methods took place virtually over two days in February 2021 and included four keynote presentations, 22 technical presentations, and a concluding panel. The presentations, discussions, and workshop findings are summarized in this report.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2012

Cognitive Systems Modeling and Analysis of Command and Control Systems

Military operations, counter-terrorism operations and emergency response often oblige operators and commanders to operate within distributed organizations and systems for safe and effective mission accomplishment. Tactical commanders and operators frequently encounter violent threats and critical demands on cognitive capacity and reaction time. In the future they will make decisions in situations where operational and system characteristics are highly dynamic and non-linear, i.e. minor events, decisions or actions may have serious and irreversible consequences for the entire mission. Commanders and other decision makers must manage true real time properties at all levels; individual operators, stand-alone technical systems, higher-order integrated human-machine systems and joint operations forces alike. Coping with these conditions in performance assessment, system development and operational testing is a challenge for both practitioners and researchers. This paper reports on research from which the results led to a breakthrough: An integrated approach to information-centered systems analysis to support future command and control systems research development. This approach integrates several areas of research into a coherent framework, Action Control Theory (ACT). It comprises measurement techniques and methodological advances that facilitate a more accurate and deeper understanding of the operational environment, its agents, actors and effectors, generating new and updated models. This in turn generates theoretical advances. Some good examples of successful approaches are found in the research areas of cognitive systems engineering, systems theory, and psychophysiology, and in the fields of dynamic, distributed decision making and naturalistic decision making.

Norlander, Arne↗
DOE OSTI2020

Knowledge Spillovers and Cost Reductions in Solar Soft Costs

Despite the commonly acknowledged importance of knowledge spillovers in reducing solar soft costs, we are only beginning to answer a fundamental question: who learns what (knowledge acquisition), from whom (knowledge production), and how (spillover mechanisms)? Until recently, this important topic has been largely unexplored in the case of solar soft costs. Thus, this project set out to identify how knowledge spillovers affect soft costs in the U.S. photovoltaic (PV) installation industry, specifically how important spillovers are, what types of knowledge are most likely to spillover, and how networks of actors affect spillovers. Our findings offer insights for designing solutions that address problems associated with knowledge spillovers and that leverage spillovers to reduce solar soft costs. Recognizing the ambiguity in the definition of soft costs, i.e., “non-hardware costs,” and variability in soft cost categories, we developed the Solar Soft Cost Ontology (SSCO) to systematically identify key concepts related to soft costs, network actors, learning processes, and the relationships between them. This ontology served as a foundational organizational structure for the methodology of the remaining tasks: case studies, surveys, pricing analysis, patent analysis, network analysis, and project integration across tasks. While there is substantial learning among installers that is reducing the soft costs for PV installations, most of that learning is retained by firms rather than spread across the industry. The positive relationship between experience accumulation and cost reductions is typically explained as learning by doing (LBD), but we find that LBD effects are mediated by other learning mechanisms, including learning by searching and learning by interacting. Knowledge spillovers have significant potential to reduce solar PV soft costs, but successful knowledge spillover pathways are complex and non-trivial. There are a wide variety of ways to construct an installation business, thus categories of firms that can effectively cross-learn directly are small and what knowledge is relevant to whom is challenging and costly for firms to assess. This fragmentation limits the critical mass needed for spillover related soft cost reductions. Knowledge does not flow directly between installers. Indirect knowledge transfer pathways are critical: distributors, software providers, collaboratives, and hiring. Furthermore, diverse, more integrated knowledge networks tend to promote successful learning by organizations and across the system as a whole. Accordingly, we find the need to supporting the whole ecosystem using an integrated policy and programmatic approach to support installers, distributors, complementary sector, and facilitators. Overall, a deliberate policy-mix design is needed to reduce the solar PV deployment barrier in terms of installation cost reductions, because deployment policies could potentially interact with policies that facilitate network-building and technological innovation. A combination of deployment policies, innovation-support policies, and network-facilitating policies could potentially lead to a more desired market outcome through achieving higher joint learning rates from firms’ cumulative experiences developed in a more integrated production and deployment ecosystem.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Can Wholesale Electricity Markets Achieve Resource Adequacy and High Clean Energy Generation Targets in the Presence of Self-Interested Actors?

Wholesale electricity markets are intended to incentivize system generation investments and operations outcomes that meet evolving system needs. In this work, we evaluate the effectiveness of wholesale market structures, rules and policies in achieving system resource adequacy (RA) and clean energy targets in the presence of self-interested generation investors using the Electricity Markets and Investment Suite Agent-based Simulation (EMIS-AS) model. Results highlight that both capacity markets and operating reserve demand curves (ORDCs) can help achieve a reliable system but with different RA compliance timelines and distribution of generation technologies. Structures with capacity markets tend to favor more capital-intensive peaking technologies while reducing wind and solar build-outs due to suppressed energy and clean energy market prices, particularly in the absence of strong clean energy targets. Conversely, ORDCs improve the commitment of available generation units, but this comes at the expense of higher system costs and renewable generation curtailment. We also find that well-calibrated static capacity demand curves can yield similar reliability and total cost compared to capacity market demand curves informed dynamically by resource adequacy while also yielding stable annual capacity prices. Different approaches to formulating ORDC curves can also yield key trade-offs, namely that a more efficient treatment of storage chronology results in lower ORDC curves and prices, yielding less investment and cost but at the expense of reliability. Finally, the effectiveness of wholesale electricity markets in practically achieving very high clean energy generation targets highly depends on the cost-competitiveness of clean energy technologies that can support critical balancing needs across multiple timescales.

capacity expansion↗
NASA NTRS2012

Using Satellite Remote Sensing and Modelling for Insights into N02 Air Pollution and NO2 Emissions

Nitrogen oxides (NO(x)) are key actors in air quality and climate change. Satellite remote sensing of tropospheric NO2 has developed rapidly with enhanced spatial and temporal resolution since initial observations in 1995. We have developed an improved algorithm and retrieved tropospheric NO2 columns from Ozone Monitoring Instrument. Column observations of tropospheric NO2 from the nadir-viewing satellite sensors contain large contributions from the boundary layer due to strong enhancement of NO2 in the boundary layer. We infer ground-level NO2 concentrations from the OMI satellite instrument which demonstrate significant agreement with in-situ surface measurements. We examine how NO2 columns measured by satellite, ground-level NO2 derived from satellite, and NO(x) emissions obtained from bottom-up inventories relate to world's urban population. We perform inverse modeling analysis of NO2 measurements from OMI to estimate "top-down" surface NO(x) emissions, which are used to evaluate and improve "bottom-up" emission inventories. We use NO2 column observations from OMI and the relationship between NO2 columns and NO(x) emissions from a GEOS-Chem model simulation to estimate the annual change in bottom-up NO(x) emissions. The emission updates offer an improved estimate of NO(x) that are critical to our understanding of air quality, acid deposition, and climate change.

Lamsal, L. N.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Establishment of a Spaceport Network Architecture

Since the beginning of the space age, the main actors in space exploration have been governmental agencies, enabling a privileged access to space, but with very restricted and rare missions. The last decade has seen the rise of space tourism, and the founding of ambitious private space mining companies, showing the beginnings of a new exploration era, that is based on a more generalized and regular access to space and which is not limited to the Earth's vicinity. However, the cost of launching sufficient mass into orbit to sustain these inspiring challenges is prohibitive, and the necessary infrastructures to support these missions is still lacking. To provide easy and affordable access into orbital and deep space destinations, there is the need to create a network of spaceports via specific waypoint locations coupled with the use of natural resources, or In Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU), to provide a more economical solution. As part of the International Space University Space Studies Program 2012, the international and intercultural team of Operations and Service Infrastructure for Space (OASIS) proposes an interdisciplinary answer to the problem of economical space access and transportation. This paper presents a summary of a detailed report [1] of the different phases of a project for developing a network of spaceports throughout the Solar System in a timeframe of 50 years. The requirements, functions, critical technologies and mission architecture of this network of spaceports are outlined in a roadmap of the important steps and phases. The economic and financial aspects are emphasized in order to allow a sustainable development of the network in a public-private partnership via the formation of an International Spaceport Authority (ISPA). The approach includes engineering, scientific, financial, legal, policy, and societal aspects. Team OASIS intends to provide guidelines to make the development of space transportation via a spaceports logistics network feasible, and believes that this pioneering effort will revolutionize space exploration, science and commerce, ultimately contributing to permanently expand humanity into space.

Larson, Wiley J.↗
NASA NTRS2015

NASA Data Acquisition System Software Development for Rocket Propulsion Test Facilities

Current NASA propulsion test facilities include Stennis Space Center in Mississippi, Marshall Space Flight Center in Alabama, Plum Brook Station in Ohio, and White Sands Test Facility in New Mexico. Within and across these centers, a diverse set of data acquisition systems exist with different hardware and software platforms. The NASA Data Acquisition System (NDAS) is a software suite designed to operate and control many critical aspects of rocket engine testing. The software suite combines real-time data visualization, data recording to a variety formats, short-term and long-term acquisition system calibration capabilities, test stand configuration control, and a variety of data post-processing capabilities. Additionally, data stream conversion functions exist to translate test facility data streams to and from downstream systems, including engine customer systems. The primary design goals for NDAS are flexibility, extensibility, and modularity. Providing a common user interface for a variety of hardware platforms helps drive consistency and error reduction during testing. In addition, with an understanding that test facilities have different requirements and setups, the software is designed to be modular. One engine program may require real-time displays and data recording; others may require more complex data stream conversion, measurement filtering, or test stand configuration management. The NDAS suite allows test facilities to choose which components to use based on their specific needs. The NDAS code is primarily written in LabVIEW, a graphical, data-flow driven language. Although LabVIEW is a general-purpose programming language; large-scale software development in the language is relatively rare compared to more commonly used languages. The NDAS software suite also makes extensive use of a new, advanced development framework called the Actor Framework. The Actor Framework provides a level of code reuse and extensibility that has previously been difficult to achieve using LabVIEW. The

Herbert, Phillip W., Sr.↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Projected Network Model of Online Disinformation Cascades

Within the past half-decade, it has become overwhelmingly clear that suppressing the spread of deliberate false and misleading information is of the utmost importance for protecting democratic institutions. Disinformation has been found to come from both foreign and domestic actors, but the effects from either can be disastrous. From the simple encouragement of unwarranted distrust to conspiracy theories promoting violence, the results of disinformation have put the functionality of American democracy under direct threat. Present scientific challenges posed by this problem include detecting disinformation, quantifying its potential impact, and preventing its amplification. We present a model on which we can experiment with possible strategies toward the third challenge: the prevention of amplification. This is a social contagion network model, which is decomposed into layers to represent physical, ''offline'', interactions as well as virtual interactions on a social media platform. Along with the topological modifications to the standard contagion model, we use state-transition rules designed specifically for disinformation, and distinguish between contagious and non-contagious infected nodes. We use this framework to explore the effect of grassroots social movements on the size of disinformation cascades by simulating these cascades in scenarios where a proportion of the agents remove themselves from the social platform. We also test the efficacy of strategies that could be implemented at the administrative level by the online platform to minimize such spread. These top-down strategies include banning agents who disseminate false information, or providing corrective information to individuals exposed to false information to decrease their probability of believing it. We find an abrupt transition to smaller cascades when a critical number of random agents are removed from the platform, as well as steady decreases in the size of cascades with increasingly more convincing corrective information. Finally, we compare simulated cascades on this framework with real cascades of disinformation recorded on Whatsapp surrounding the 2019 Indian election. We find a set of hyperparameter values that produces a distribution of cascades matching the scaling exponent of the distribution of actual cascades recorded in the dataset. We acknowledge the available future directions for improving the performance of the framework and validation methods, as well as ways to extend the model to capture additional features of social contagion.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

System Modeling of a Lunar Molten Regolith Electrolysis Plant

Introduction: In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) is the process of extracting local resources to produce commodities for propulsion, life support systems, and off-planet construction rather than transporting consumables from Earth. Molten Regolith Electrolysis (MRE) is a novel ISRU method of extracting oxygen gas and metal alloy from lunar regolith. The MRE process involves placing lunar regolith between two electrodes, through which current is passed, to melt the regolith and reduce the metal oxide constituents by direct electrolysis (e.g. FeO, SiO2, MgO, Al2O3) into oxygen gas and metal alloys. The oxygen is liquefied and used as propellant for landers, while the metals (e.g. Ferro-alloys) are further processed and used in structural building materials and parts manufacturing. A system model was developed that accounted for the major processes of an MRE plant (from excavation of raw materials to storage of products) to assess the feasibility of a lunar MRE plant. The System Engineering and Integration (SE&I) ISRU Modeling and Analysis (SIMA) team utilized its previously documented system sizing model, the Mission Analysis and Integration Tool (MAIT) [1] as framework of the system model. MAIT uses MATLAB/Simulink to integrate subsystem models into a complete system model of the MRE plant. Total mass, volume, and power requirements were computed for numerous iterations of a MRE plant. System Model: Figure 1: MRE Plant Block Diagram The regolith excavation model determines the mass and power needed to excavate sufficient regolith. The preheating auger initiates the regolith heating process before regolith enters the MRE re-actor to reduce the energy required to turn the solid into a molten liquid. The MRE reactor is modeled in COMSOL Multiphysics and based on the research by Dominguez, Sibille, and Schreiner [2, 3, 4]. This preliminary reactor model provides an accurate calculation of thermal equilibrium during electrochemical operation of the reactor system to assess the optimal mass and power required to process the inlet flow of regolith. The model also computes the outlet flowrates of oxygen and molten products. For this analysis, the primary components of the metal alloy considered were iron and silicon. The oxygen is then purified using an Yttrium Stabilized Zirconia (YSZ) electrode, followed by liquefaction using a 90K cryocooler to be stored as liquid oxygen in insulated cylindrical tanks. In future iterations of the system model, the molten metal tapped from the MRE reactor will undergo additional processing or refinement. However, downstream handling of metals is currently a technology gap that is missing a high TRL subsystem model. Therefore, for this analysis, the accumulated metal alloy stream terminates after leaving the MRE reactor. Study Goals: This analysis investigates multiple input variables to the system to determine the sensitivity of a (near) complete plant at full-scale. This preliminary investigation ran parametric sweeps on the MRE reactor geometry, electrical current supply, layers of multi-layer insulation (MLI) on the reactor, size of the electrodes in the oxygen purification model, and regolith composition (based on landing site location). Three production targets of oxygen (1,000, 10,000, and 50,000 kg/yr) were investigated for this analysis. The parametric sweeps conducted in this analysis provide valuable insight into the expected impact of the various model inputs on plant size. This information can be used to identify the most critical components of the plant and guide future decisions on allocating funding for research and development, providing subsystem developers with appropriate interfaces with downstream and upstream processes, and assessing the overall feasibility of MRE when compared to other ISRU plants. References: [1] Carlson, A. et al. (2024) ICES, ICES-2024-53. [2] Dominguez, D.A., and Sibille, L. (2011) AIAA, AIAA-2011-700. [3] Schreiner, S.S. (2015) MIT, Dissertation. [4] Schreiner, S.S. et al. (2016) ASR, 57(7), pp.1585-1603.

ISRU↗
DOE OSTI2021

Scaling Equitable Finance

Driven by dramatic declines in up-front cost, the U.S. solar photovoltaics (PV) industry has taken off over the past decade, growing from 1 gigawatt of installed capacity in 2009 to 89 gigawatts in 2020—or enough capacity to power roughly 19 million homes. The industry is expected to double in size over just the next 5 years.1 Much of the growth has been driven by large, utility-scale projects that can produce 5 mega- watts or more of power—enough to power at least 1,000 homes. The cost of electricity produced by these projects has decreased by more than 70 percent since 2010. As of Q3 2020, development costs of large, util- ity-scale solar PV power plants were under $1 per watt, down by more than 70 percent from 2010.2 A robust array of investors has come forward to efficiently deliver capital to these kinds of utility-scale projects including large banks, insurance companies, pension funds, and others. But low- and moderate-income communities, including communities of color, are at risk of being left behind in the transition to clean energy. Mission- driven solar project developers and financial institu- tions have been working alongside energy justice advocates to open up solar access for these communi- ties, using strategies ranging from community solar, to solar installations on affordable multifamily housing, to distributed solar and storage programs, and more. Their goals go beyond simply generating more green energy to advancing social equity by: • empowering communities to control their energy future • stabilizing energy prices, saving money, and build- ing wealth for low-income families • creating quality jobs • improving health by reducing pollution • providing energy resilience for vulnerable communities Mission-driven actors are successfully deploying a wide variety of strategies to meet these goals, from helping low-income homeowners get solar—and some- times battery storage, to developing solar projects serv- ing affordable rental housing and community facilities, to building larger “shared solar” projects to which households from across the community can subscribe. However, the financing ecosystem does not work nearly as well for these “mission driven” solar proj- ects as it does for utility-scale projects. For home rooftop solar, even if low-income consumers have a home and suitable roof, they may fail to qualify for federal tax incentives, lack adequate credit to qualify for a loan—or the mission-driven lenders seeking to serve them may not be adequately capitalized to make long-term loans. For mission-driven commercial or community-scale projects, assembling nearly every component of the project capital stack—whether bridging early-stage costs, attracting tax credit equity investors, securing long-term debt, or coming up with sponsor equity and filling gaps—can present challenges. A variety of obstacles contribute to the scarcity of financing for low-income solar, including small project sizes, lack of developer balance sheet capacity, both real and perceived issues with credit risk, elevated technical assistance needs, and greater subsidy requirements to pursue goals such as deep energy affordability, climate resilience, or job creation. Still other obstacles are regulatory: for example, not all states allow community solar projects or Power Purchase Agreements, common strategies used for providing low-income solar—and the potential for regulations to shift over time creates risks that mission-driven projects can ill afford. This report synthesizes information garnered from 47 key informant interviews, four focus group discus- sions involving 60 stakeholders, and a review of the substantial existing literature on low-income solar finance to assess the current landscape of mission- driven solar development in the United States, examine the roles that community-based financial institutions could play, and recommend public invest- ments and policy changes that could help to scale the provision of equitable solar finance. Key recommen- dations for policymakers and funders in the renew- able energy and community development fields that emerge from this process include the following: • Help to capitalize and support community-based lenders to provide flexible, low-cost, and long- term financing to mission-driven solar projects— including providing guarantees or other forms of credit enhancement. • Provide federal support for equitable solar, including a grant-in-lieu-of-credits option for the Investment Tax Credit to improve access to this critical government subsidy. • Develop pools of government and philanthropic support that can complement financing from community-based lenders to complete the capi- tal stack for mission-driven projects, as well as to support education and technical assistance to both consumers and potential project sponsors. • Create a national Renewable Energy Credits pro- gram that includes social equity targets to provide a baseline of support for clean energy generation. • Change utility regulations to remove barriers to low-income solar projects; lower permitting costs; provide greater certainty for developers, consumers and owners; and measure progress toward equity in renewable energy policy implementation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗