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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Establishing performance metrics for quantitative non-targeted analysis: a demonstration using per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances

Abstract Non-targeted analysis (NTA) is an increasingly popular technique for characterizing undefined chemical analytes. Generating quantitative NTA (qNTA) concentration estimates requires the use of training data from calibration “surrogates,” which can yield diminished predictive performance relative to targeted analysis. To evaluate performance differences between targeted and qNTA approaches, we defined new metrics that convey predictive accuracy, uncertainty (using 95% inverse confidence intervals), and reliability (the extent to which confidence intervals contain true values). We calculated and examined these newly defined metrics across five quantitative approaches applied to a mixture of 29 per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS). The quantitative approaches spanned a traditional targeted design using chemical-specific calibration curves to a generalizable qNTA design using bootstrap-sampled calibration values from “global” chemical surrogates. As expected, the targeted approaches performed best, with major benefits realized from matched calibration curves and internal standard correction. In comparison to the benchmark targeted approach, the most generalizable qNTA approach (using “global” surrogates) showed a decrease in accuracy by a factor of ~4, an increase in uncertainty by a factor of ~1000, and a decrease in reliability by ~5%, on average. Using “expert-selected” surrogates ( n = 3) instead of “global” surrogates ( n = 25) for qNTA yielded improvements in predictive accuracy (by ~1.5×) and uncertainty (by ~70×) but at the cost of further-reduced reliability (by ~5%). Overall, our results illustrate the utility of qNTA approaches for a subclass of emerging contaminants and present a framework on which to develop new approaches for more complex use cases. Graphical Abstract

Pu, Shirley (ORCID:0000000201223797)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Additively manufactured Al-Ce-Ni-Mn alloy with improved elevated-temperature fatigue resistance

Here, the high cycle fatigue behavior of an additively manufactured (AM) Al-10.5Ce-3.1Ni-1.2Mn wt% alloy was evaluated at 350 °C. The measured fatigue strength of 50 MPa at this temperature is comparable to the most fatigue resistant wrought Al alloys (2618-T6 and 7079-T6) at 315 °C. Refinement of pore populations through advanced AM processing in the examined alloy led to oxide inclusions becoming dominant fatigue crack initiation sites. The distribution of microstructural features that determine crack initiation was measured by X-ray computed tomography and served as input to make fatigue strength model predictions with various methodologies. A Monte-Carlo based approach that was previously applied to predict the fatigue strength of cast aluminum alloys through pore size distributions yielded accurate predictions for the fatigue strength of this AM alloy. Given the tunability of defect distributions in AM alloys, the sensitivity of the Al-Ce-Ni-Mn alloy fatigue behavior to defect distributions and outstanding elevated-temperature fatigue resistance of this alloy; the results together suggest the possibility of a new generation of fatigue-resistant alloys produced by the additive manufacturing route.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

System-Level Optimization to Improve Biofuel Potential via Genetic Engineering and Hydrothermal Liquefaction

The economic success of biofuels and bioproducts depends on system-level optimization including biomass production and conversion. Hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) can convert wet biomass such as microalgae into a biofuel intermediate (BFI) under elevated temperatures and pressure. An understanding of the impacts of biomass composition on BFI yield and quality can inform genetic engineering strategies in the improvement of biochemical composition for biofuel production. In this work, wild type cyanobacterium Synechocystis sp. PCC 6803 biomass was doped with various common cellular storage compounds in lab-scale HTL experiments. Doping with glycogen or polyhydroxybutyrate (PHB) significantly reduced BFI yields, while doping with triglycerides (TAG) or medium chain-length polyhydroxyalkanoate (mcl-PHA) increased BFI yield and quality. In light of these observations, a genetically engineered Synechocystis strain deficient in glycogen biosynthesis was cultivated to produce biomass for HTL, leading to a 17% increase in BFI yield. In addition, we built a multiphase component additivity (MCA) model that can predict BFI yield and quality with PHAs in the biomass. This work demonstrates an effective strategy to integrate strain development with downstream biomass conversion to maximize biofuel yield, with lessons applicable to microalgae as well as other biomass.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A phenomenological rate of injection model for predicting fuel injection with application to mixture formation in light-duty diesel engines

Fuel injection rate laws are one of the most important pieces of information needed when modeling engine combustion with computational fluid dynamics. In this study, a simple phenomenological model of a common-rail injector was developed and calibrated for the Bosch CRI2.2 platform. The model requires three tunable parameter fits, making it relatively easy to calibrate and suitable for injector modeling when high-fidelity information about the internal injector’s geometry and electrical circuit details are not available. Each injection pulse is modeled as a sequence of up to four stages: an injection needle mechanical opening transient, a full-lift viscous flow inertial transient, a Bernoulli steady-state stage, and a needle descent transient. Parameters for each stage are obtained as polynomial fits from measured injection rate properties. The model enforces total injected mass, and the intermediate stages are only introduced if the injection pulse duration is long enough. Experimental rates of injection from two separate campaigns on the same injector were used to calibrate the model. The model was first validated against measured injection rate laws featuring pilot injections, short partially premixed combustion pulses, and conventional diesel combustion injection strategies. Then, it was employed as an input to engine computational fluid dynamics simulations, which were run to simulate experiments of mixture formation in an optically accessible light-duty diesel engine. It was found that, though simple, this model is capable of predicting both pilot and main injection pulse mass flow rates well: the simulations yielded accurate predictions of in-cylinder equivalence ratio distributions from injection strategies for both partially premixed combustion and pilot injections. Also, once calibrated, the model produced appropriate results for a wide range of injected mass and rail pressure values. Finally, it was observed that usage of such a relatively simple model can be a good choice when high-fidelity injection rate input and highly detailed information of the injector’s geometry and operation are not available, particularly as noticeable discrepancies can be present also among different experimental campaigns on similar hardware.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

FORESTR: Finding, Organizing, Representing, Explaining, Summarizing, and Thinning Random forests

Random forests have become popular models used for data driven predictions. As a result, random forests are currently used or being considered for high-consequence mission applications in national security, such as the prediction of yield from optical signals and malware detection. While random forests may provide accurate predictions, the complexity of the algorithm causes a lack of interpretability. Random forests are an ensemble of regression or decision trees. Individual regression and decision trees are interpretable, but ensembles are inherently difficult to interpret due to the compilation of many models. We aim to increase the interpretability of random forests by finding patterns in the ensemble of trees that can be used to “thin” (or remove) trees. As a starting point, in this report, we develop a new distance metric for quantifying the similarity between trees based on their topologies (i.e., shapes). We base the metric on a novel distance metric for graphs that is a proper mathematical distance, is invariant to transformations, has registration between graphs, and computes topological evolutions between graphs. We use the tree distance metric to compute tree statistics such as a “mean tree” and to identify clusters of trees. We apply the developed methodology to a toy dataset and a mission relevant product inspection dataset to demonstrate how the metric can provide insight into random forests. Furthermore, we discuss the limitations of the approach and ideas for future research into how the metric could be used as a thinning tool to develop less complex models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

A level set approach for the computational study of a yield stress fluid filling a thin mold

Many important engineering and scientific applications such as cement slurries, foams, crude oil, and granular avalanches involve the concept of yield stress. Therefore, modeling yield stress fluids in different flow configurations, including the accurate prediction of the yield surface, is important. In this paper, we present a computational model based on the finite element method to study the flow of yield stress fluids in a thin mold and compare the results with data from flow visualization experiments. Here, we use the level set method to describe the interface between the filling fluid and air. We use polypropylene glycol as a model Newtonian fluid and Carbopol for the model yield stress fluid, as the Carbopol solution demonstrates yielding without thixotropy. To describe the yielding and shear-thinning behavior, we use a generalized Newtonian constitutive equation with a Bingham–Carreau–Yasuda form. We compare the results obtained from the mold filling experiments with the results from the three-dimensional (3D) model and from a reduced-order Hele-Shaw (HS) model that is two-dimensional, including the effect of shear-thinning along the thin direction only approximately. We show that both the 3D and the HS model can capture the experimental meniscus shape reasonably well for all the fluids considered at three different flow rates. This indicates that the shape evolution is insensitive to the dimensionality of the model. However, the viscosity and yield surfaces predicted by the 3D and HS models are different. The HS model underestimates the high viscosity and unyielded regions compared to the estimation by the 3D model.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Estimating Switchgrass Biomass Yield and Lignocellulose Composition from UAV-Based Indices

Innovative methods for estimating commercial-scale switchgrass yields and feedstock quality are essential to optimize harvest logistics and biorefinery efficiency for sustainable aviation fuel production. This study utilized vegetation indices (VIs) derived from multispectral images to predict biomass yield and lignocellulose concentrations of advanced bioenergy-type switchgrass cultivars (“Liberty” and “Independence”) under two N rates (28 and 56 kg N ha –1 ). Field-scale plots were arranged in a randomized complete block design (RCBD) and replicated three times at Urbana, IL. Multispectral images captured during the 2021–2023 growing seasons were used to extract VIs. The results show that linear and exponential models outperformed partial least square and random forest models, with mid-August imagery providing the best predictions for biomass, cellulose, and hemicellulose. The green normalized difference vegetation index (GNDVI) was the best univariate predictor for biomass yield (R 2 = 0.86), while a multivariate combination of the GNDVI and normalized difference red-edge index (NDRE) enhanced prediction accuracy (R 2 = 0.88). Cellulose was best predicted using the NDRE (R 2 = 0.53), whereas hemicellulose prediction was most effective with a multivariate model combining the GNDVI, NDRE, NDVI, and green ratio vegetation index (GRVI) (R 2 = 0.44). These findings demonstrate the potential of UAV-based VIs for the in-season estimation of biomass yield and cellulose concentration.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Robust ab initio predictions for dimensionless ratios of 𝐸⁢2 and radius observables. I. Electric quadrupole moments and deformation

We report that converged results for 𝐸⁢2 observables are notoriously challenging to obtain in ab initio no-core configuration interaction approaches. Matrix elements of the 𝐸⁢2 operator are sensitive to the large-distance tails of the nuclear wave function, which converge slowly in an oscillator basis expansion. Similar convergence challenges beset ab initio prediction of the nuclear charge radius. However, we exploit systematic correlations between the calculated 𝐸⁢2 and radius observables to yield meaningful predictions for relations among these observables. In particular, we examine ab initio predictions for dimensionless ratios of the form 𝑄/𝑟 2 for nuclei throughout the 𝑝 shell. Meaningful predictions for electric quadrupole moments may then be made by calibrating to the ground-state charge radius, if experimentally known, or vice versa. Moreover, these dimensionless ratios provide ab initio insight into the nuclear quadrupole deformation.

ab initio calculations↗
DOE OSTI2025

Robust ab initio predictions for dimensionless ratios of 𝐸⁢2 and radius observables. II. Estimation of 𝐸⁢2 transition strengths by calibration to the charge radius

Converged results for 𝐸⁢2 observables are notoriously challenging to obtain in ab initio no-core configuration interaction approaches. Matrix elements of the 𝐸⁢2 operator are sensitive to the large-distance tails of the nuclear wave function, which converge slowly in an oscillator basis expansion. Similar convergence challenges beset ab initio prediction of the nuclear charge radius. However, we exploit systematic correlations between the calculated 𝐸⁢2 and radius observables to yield meaningful predictions for relations among these observables. In particular, we examine ab initio predictions for dimensionless ratios of the form 𝐵⁡(𝐸⁢2)/(𝑒 2 ⁢𝑟 4 ) for nuclei throughout the 𝑝 shell. Finally, meaningful predictions for 𝐸⁢2 transition strengths may then be made by calibrating to the ground-state charge radius if experimentally known.

ab initio calculations↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive performance of such forecasts if multiple models are combined into an ensemble. Here, we report on the performance of ensembles in predicting COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe between 08 March 2021 and 07 March 2022. Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance. Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models. Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks. Funding: AA, BH, BL, LWa, MMa, PP, SV funded by National Institutes of Health (NIH) Grant 1R01GM109718, NSF BIG DATA Grant IIS-1633028, NSF Grant No.: OAC-1916805, NSF Expeditions in Computing Grant CCF-1918656, CCF-1917819, NSF RAPID CNS-2028004, NSF RAPID OAC-2027541, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 75D30119C05935, a grant from Google, University of Virginia Strategic Investment Fund award number SIF160, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) under Contract No. HDTRA1-19-D-0007, and respectively Virginia Dept of Health Grant VDH-21-501-0141, VDH-21-501-0143, VDH-21-501-0147, VDH-21-501-0145, VDH-21-501-0146, VDH-21-501-0142, VDH-21-501-0148. AF, AMa, GL funded by SMIGE - Modelli statistici inferenziali per governare l'epidemia, FISR 2020-Covid-19 I Fase, FISR2020IP-00156, Codice Progetto: PRJ-0695. AM, BK, FD, FR, JK, JN, JZ, KN, MG, MR, MS, RB funded by Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Poland with grant 28/WFSN/2021 to the University of Warsaw. BRe, CPe, JLAz funded by Ministerio de Sanidad/ISCIII. BT, PG funded by PERISCOPE European H2020 project, contract number 101016233. CP, DL, EA, MC, SA funded by European Commission - Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology through the contract LC-01485746, and Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00. DE., MGu funded by Spanish Ministry of Health / REACT-UE (FEDER). DO, GF, IMi, LC funded by Laboratory Directed Research and Development program of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) under project number 20200700ER. DS, ELR, GG, NGR, NW, YW funded by National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582; the content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health). FB, FP funded by InPresa, Lombardy Region, Italy. HG, KS funded by European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. IV funded by Agencia de Qualitat i Avaluacio Sanitaries de Catalunya (AQuAS) through contract 2021-021OE. JDe, SMo, VP funded by Netzwerk Universitatsmedizin (NUM) project egePan (01KX2021). JPB, SH, TH funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF; grant 05M18SIA). KH, MSc, YKh funded by Project SaxoCOV, funded by the German Free State of Saxony. Presentation of data, model results and simulations also funded by the NFDI4Health Task Force COVID-19 ( https://www.nfdi4health.de/task-force-covid-19-2 ) within the framework of a DFG-project (LO-342/17-1). LP, VE funded by Mathematical and Statistical modelling project (MUNI/A/1615/2020), Online platform for real-time monitoring, analysis and management of epidemic situations (MUNI/11/02202001/2020); VE also supported by RECETOX research infrastructure (Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic: LM2018121), the CETOCOEN EXCELLENCE (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/17-043/0009632), RECETOX RI project (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16-013/0001761). NIB funded by Health Protection Research Unit (grant code NIHR200908). SAb, SF funded by Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Revisiting the validity of eddy viscosity models for predicting airflow over water waves

In this study, we revisit the validity of eddy viscosity models for predicting wave-induced airflow disturbances over ocean surface waves. We first derive a turbulence curvilinear model for the phase-averaged Navier–Stokes equations, extending the work of Cao, Deng & Shen (2020 J. Fluid Mech. 901, A27), by incorporating turbulence stress terms previously neglected in the linearised viscous curvilinear model. To verify our formulation, we perform a priori tests by numerically solving the model using mean wind and turbulence stress profiles from large-eddy simulations (LES) of airflow over waves across various wave ages. Results show that including turbulence stress terms improves wave-induced airflow predictions compared with the previous viscous curvilinear model. We further show that using a standard mixing-length eddy viscosity yields inaccurate predictions at certain wave ages, as it fails to capture wave-induced turbulence, which fundamentally differs from mean shear-driven turbulence. The LES data show that accurate representations of wave-induced stresses require a complex-valued eddy viscosity. The maximum magnitude of this eddy viscosity scales as ∼𝑢 𝜏 ⁢𝜁 𝑖𝑛𝑛𝑒𝑟 , where 𝑢 𝜏 is the friction velocity and 𝜁 𝑖𝑛𝑛𝑒𝑟 is the inner-layer thickness, the height at which the eddy-turnover time matches the wave advection time scale. This scaling aligns with the prediction by Belcher & Hunt (1993 J. Fluid Mech. 251, 109–148). Overall, the findings demonstrate that traditional eddy viscosity models are inadequate for capturing wave-induced turbulence. More sophisticated turbulence models are essential for the accurate prediction of airflow disturbances and form drag in wind–wave interaction models.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2020

AMPPED LDRD: Advanced Models of the Physics & Phenomena of Electrical Discharge.

This Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project aimed at addressing an unmet need for physics-based models that enable prediction of electrical breakdown in the presence of high voltage gradients and real-world environments. This project focused on understanding coupled plasma-surface feedback phenomena critical to electrical discharge processes and design of breakdown voltages, breakdown times, and breakdown paths. New secondary electron emission and coupled plasma-surface measurement methods and models were developed. Highly reproducible discharge experiments were developed to provide current-voltage data as a function of time, and methods were developed to condition electrodes for predictable discharge. To assess plasma-surface feedback mechanisms, new surface physics capabilities, including measurement systems for local and global photoemission yield and ion-induced secondary electron emission yield were developed. Discharge models were developed to incorporate these yields for predicting discharge behavior to understand influence of surface physics on discharge current and time evolution, and methods to accelerate these simulations were demonstrated. A key finding was that the initiation process of a non-vacuum discharge appears highly dependent on photoemission at the cathode. Advanced diagnostics were developed, including spatial electrical field imaging, spectroscopy of plasmas, and high-speed imaging of discharge event s in metal and dielectric environments. These diagnostics and improved electrical models are a step toward enabling quantitative design margins, assurance of safety architectures, and implementation of novel materials and technologies for wide ranging energy and electronics applications.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Exploring Sensitivity of ICF Outputs to Design Parameters in Experiments Using Machine Learning

We report building a sustainable burn platform in inertial confinement fusion (ICF) requires an understanding of the complex coupling of physical processes and the effects that key experimental design changes have on implosion performance. While simulation codes are used to model ICF implosions, incomplete physics and the need for approximations deteriorate their predictive capability. Identification of relationships between controllable design inputs and measurable outcomes can help guide the future design of experiments and development of simulation codes, which can potentially improve the accuracy of the computational models used to simulate ICF implosions. In this article, we leverage developments in machine learning (ML) and methods for ML feature importance/sensitivity analysis to identify complex relationships in ways that are difficult to process using expert judgment alone. We present work using random forest (RF) regression for prediction of yield, velocity, and other experimental outcomes given a suite of design parameters, along with an assessment of important relationships and uncertainties in the prediction model. We show that RF models are capable of learning and predicting on ICF experimental data with high accuracy, and we extract feature importance metrics that provide insight into the physical significance of different controllable design inputs for various ICF design configurations. These results can be used to augment expert intuition and simulation results for optimal design of future ICF experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Long-Term Creep-Rupture Behavior of Alloy Inconel 740/740H

To explore potential application of Ni-based alloys for power generation at the higher temperatures and pressures needed to achieve high thermal to electrical-energy conversion efficiency, an extensive creep-rupture dataset covering up to 875 °C and almost 70,000 h for Inconel 740/740H was analyzed using Larson–Miller parameter and Wilshire approaches. The results were used to assess the relative effectiveness of the two analytical methods, both in describing the experimental data and, because of the breadth of the dataset, using analyses of its shorter-time data to make creep lifetime predictions for much more extended times, which were then directly compared to the measured rupture times. The respective methods were also used to predict creep-limited lifetimes relevant to power production (that is, 100,000 h or greater). Despite the complexity of the precipitation-strengthened Inconel 740/740H alloy and the generalized parametric approach of these methodologies, the predictions based on such were reasonably accurate when the entire dataset was analyzed. However, when the analysis was confined to only data for conditions yielding creep-rupture times < 5,000 h( about 65 % of the entire dataset), the Wilshire correlation yielded better prediction for longer time lifetimes due to the inherent instability of the specific Larson–Miller formalism used in this analysis when extrapolated significantly outside its analysis range.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Joint Bayesian Inference for Near-Surface Explosion Yield and Height-of-Burst

Forensic capabilities to understand chemical and nuclear explosions are greatly aided by an accurate estimate of explosive yield with uncertainty. The relationship between explosive size and geophysical observations of seismic, acoustic, and optical waves can be exploited to provide an estimate of yield. Any near-surface yield estimate is complicated by the surface interaction, so an estimate for the explosion height-of-burst is necessarily included in the relationship. Additionally, the relationship dictates a trade-off between estimates of yield and height-of-burst. Fortunately, the surface interaction for each type of observation is different, which breaks the trade-off, and the inclusion of height-of-burst with multiple data types improves yield estimation. We define simple parametric forward models to relate seismoäcoustoöptic observations from a data set of known explosive yields and height-of-bursts. The parameters of the models and a prediction for the yield and height-of-burst of a new event can then be estimated given new observations via Bayesian inference. We report posterior distribution estimates of the parametric models using a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling technique. These models are then used to predict the yield and height-of-burst of SUGAR, a historical near-surface nuclear explosion, using its reported historical observations. The reported yield of 1.2 ktonne Trinitrotoluene (TNT)-equivalent (Department of Energy, 2015) is within the estimated posterior. Yield uncertainty can be estimated from the spread of the posterior, which is between 0.9 and 2.1 ktonne TNT-equivalent. The posterior for height-of-burst has a wider range between 10 m below and 8 m above ground that includes the true height-of-burst of 1 m.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A model for K-shell x-ray yield from magnetic implosions at Sandia's Z machine

A zero-dimensional magnetic implosion model with a coupled equivalent circuit for the description of an imploding nested wire array or gas puff is presented. Circuit model results have been compared with data from imploding stainless steel wire arrays, and good agreement has been found. The total energy coupled to the load, Ej×B, has been applied to a simple semi-analytic K-shell yield model, and excellent agreement with previously reported K-shell yields across all wire array and gas puff platforms is seen. Trade space studies in implosion radius and mass have found that most platforms operate near the predicted maximum yield. In some cases, the K-shell yield may be increased by increasing the mass or radius of the imploding array or gas puff.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Kinetic mix at gas-shell interface in inverted corona fusion targets

Gas-filled, laser-driven “inverted corona” fusion targets have attracted interest as a low-convergence neutron source and platform for studying kinetic physics. At the fill pressures under investigation, ejected particles from the shell can penetrate deeply into the gas before colliding, leading to significant mixing across the gas–shell interface. Here, we use kinetic-ion, fluid-electron hybrid particle-in-cell simulations to explore the nature of that mix. Simulations of the system demonstrate characteristics of a weakly collisional electrostatic shock, whereby a strong electric field accelerates shell ions into the rarefied gas and reflects upstream gas ions. This interpenetration is mediated by collisional processes: At higher initial gas pressure, fewer shell particles pass into the mix region and reach the hotspot. This effect is detectable through neutron yield scaling vs gas pressure. Predictions of neutron yield scaling show excellent agreement with experimental data recorded at the OMEGA laser facility, suggesting that 1D kinetic mechanisms are sufficient to capture the mix process.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

iPHoP: An integrated machine learning framework to maximize host prediction for metagenome-derived viruses of archaea and bacteria

The extraordinary diversity of viruses infecting bacteria and archaea is now primarily studied through metagenomics. While metagenomes enable high-throughput exploration of the viral sequence space, metagenome-derived sequences lack key information compared to isolated viruses, in particular host association. Different computational approaches are available to predict the host(s) of uncultivated viruses based on their genome sequences, but thus far individual approaches are limited either in precision or in recall, i.e., for a number of viruses they yield erroneous predictions or no prediction at all. Here, we describe iPHoP, a two-step framework that integrates multiple methods to reliably predict host taxonomy at the genus rank for a broad range of viruses infecting bacteria and archaea, while retaining a low false discovery rate. Based on a large dataset of metagenome-derived virus genomes from the IMG/VR database, we illustrate how iPHoP can provide extensive host prediction and guide further characterization of uncultivated viruses.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗