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NASA NTRS1977

Remote infrared spectroscopy of the earth

The infrared reflexion-spectra of minerals and rocks are used for remote sensing of targets. The reflexion-spectra of silicate rocks vary quite significantly from mineral to mineral in the wave length region from 8 to 12 micrometers. The rock forming minerals like quartz, feldspar, mica and the clay minerals show very different spectral shapes and positions of their maximum of the spectral reflexion. The presence of a good atmospherical window in that spectral region makes the method of differential-reflexion measurement feasible, for remote sensing application. A tunable CO2-laser was used as transmitter for infrared radiation. Laboratory tests showed the feasibility of the method under different simulated environmental conditions. Because of the very narrow bandwidth of the laser-emission lines, reflexion-spectra with extremely high spectral resolution were obtained.

Steinmann, C. R.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Simultaneous in situ Optical Monitoring Techniques during Crystal Growth of ZnSe by Physical Vapor Transport

ZnSe crystals grown in sealed ampoules by the physical vapor transport method were monitored in situ using three techniques, simultaneously. A Michelson interferometer was set-up to observe the growth rate and surface morphological evolution. An interference pattern (interferogram) is formed by the interaction between the reflection of a HeNe laser (632.8 nm wavelength) off the crystal-vapor interface and a reference beam from the same laser. Preliminary results indicate that the rate of growth/thermal-etching can be calculated using analog data acquisition and simple fringe counting techniques. Gross surface features may also be observed using a digital frame grabber and fringe analysis software. The second in situ technique uses optical absorption to determine the partial pressures of the vapor species. The Se2 and Zn vapor species present in the sealed ampoule absorb light at characteristic wavelengths. The optical absorption is determined by monitoring the light intensity difference between the sample and reference beams. The Se2 Partial pressure profile along the length of the ampoule was estimated from the vibronic absorption peaks at 340.5, 350.8, 361.3 and 379.2 nm using the Beer's law constants established in the calibration runs of pure Se. Finally, because the high temperature crystal growth furnace contains windows, in situ visual observation of the growing crystal is also possible. The use of these techniques not only permits in situ investigation of high temperature vapor growth of semiconductors, but also offers the potential for real time feed back on the growing crystal and allows the possibility of actively controlling the growth process.

Su, C.- H.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Post-Shot Report for OMEGA Double Cylinders (CylDRT 22B)

The direct-drive double cylinder experimental platform is a high-energy-density (HED) science platform designed to image an imploding cylindrical target. The target consists of a directly-driven outer cylinder and a shock-and-collision driven inner cylinder. The purpose of this platform is to study hydrodynamic instability growth on the inner cylinder, the outer surface of which is classically Rayleigh-Taylor unstable during the acceleration phase. We present results from recent experiments at the OMEGA laser facility. These experiments were designed as a proof-of-principle for the platform, using the same cylinder exterior dimensions and direct-drive beam configuration as previous single cylinder experiments. In these experiments, three sets of targets were fielded: no machined perturbations (smooth), a sinusoidal mode-10 perturbation on the outer surface of the inner cylinder, and a mode-20 perturbation on the outer surface of the inner cylinder. The primary diagnostic was a gated x-ray framing camera which imaged the backlit inner cylinder on-axis for sixteen frames over a time window of 1 ns for each shot. A second side-lit radiograph captured one image per shot, diagnosing axial uniformity. In this report we include an overview of the results from both the backlighter and the sidelighter diagnostics. We discuss at length the experimental analysis process. Finally, we present the results of the smooth target implosion trajectory and compare them to post-shot simulations. We see favorable agreement between simulation and experiment.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS1985

The San Fernando Observatory video Stokes polarimeter

A study was conducted to determine the suitability of the San Fernando Observatory's 61 cm (24 inch) aperture vacuum solar telescope and 3 m (118 inch) focal length vacuum spectroheliograph for Stokes Polarimetry measurements. The polarization characteristics of these two instruments was measured by determining their Mueller matrices as a function of telescope orientation, field angle, wavelength, grating type, and position of the measuring beam in the telescope entrance window. In general, the polarizing and depolarizing properties are small so that inversion of the system Mueller matrix will permit the accurate measurement of Stokes profiles for vector magnetic field determination. A proposed polarimeter design based on the use of a TV camera system to simultaneously scan six different polarization components of a given line profile is described. This design, which uses no rotating optics or electronic modulators and makes efficient use of the available irradiance, promises to yield high quality vector magnetograms.

Richter, P. H.↗

NASA NTRS1939

An Investigation of the Drag of Windshields in the 8-Foot High-Speed Wind Tunnel

The drag of closed-cockpit and transport-type windshields was determined from tests made at speeds from 200 to 440 miles per hour in the NACA 8-foot high-speed wind tunnel. This speed range corresponds to a test Reynolds number range of 2,510,000 to 4,830,000 based on the mean aerodynamic chord of the full-span model (17.29 inches). The shapes of the windshield proper, the hood, and the tail fairing were systematically varied to include common types and a refined design. Transport types varied from a reproduction of a current type to a completely faired windshield. The results show that the drag of windshields of the same frontal area, on airplanes of small to medium size, may account for 15% of the airplane drag or may be reduced to 1%. Optimum values are given for windshield and tail-fairing lengths; the effect, at various radii is shown. The longitudinal profile of a windshield is shown to be most important and the transverse profile, to be much less important. The effects of retaining strips, of steps for telescoping hoods, and of recessed windows are determined. The results show that the drag of transport-type windshields may account for 21% of the fuselage drag or may be reduced to 2%.

Robinson, Russell G.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Materials for Energy Management across the Electromagnetic Spectrum (MEMES) (LDRD Report)

Electrification of the United States has been a major driver of economic growth, powering industrialization, modern manufacturing, and the digital economy. Today, further economic and environmental benefits can be realized by improving the energy efficiency of the technologies we have come to rely on. This project focused on enhancing the energy efficiency of two cornerstone technologies of modern society: electronic displays and building climatization. While these two technologies operate in different parts of the electromagnetic spectrum (the visible and infrared, respectively), they share a common potential technological solution: electrically-driven displays that change reflectivity. In this work, we developed the first multipixel multicolor reflective display that achieves multi-colorization with fast-changing structural color. In the course of this demonstration, we quantified the structural changes that occur across different time and length scales and resolved device sealing issues, enabling operation of these devices over months (as opposed to days previously). We furthermore developed two reflectivity changing devices in the infrared and demonstrated how these technologies can be used to reduce climatization demands for both smart window and smart wall technologies. Implementing such a device in a scaled down mock room resulted in 10 degree Celsius change.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS2007

Slot-Antenna/Permanent-Magnet Device for Generating Plasma

A device that includes a rectangular-waveguide/slot-antenna structure and permanent magnets has been devised as a means of generating a substantially uniform plasma over a relatively large area, using relatively low input power and a low gas flow rate. The device utilizes electron cyclotron resonance (ECR) excited by microwave power to efficiently generate plasma in a manner that is completely electrodeless in the sense that, in principle, there is no electrical contact between the plasma and the antenna. Plasmas generated by devices like this one are suitable for use as sources of ions and/or electrons for diverse material-processing applications (e.g., etching or deposition) and for ion thrusters. The absence of plasma/electrode contact essentially prevents plasma-induced erosion of the antenna, thereby also helping to minimize contamination of the plasma and of objects exposed to the plasma. Consequently, the operational lifetime of the rectangular-waveguide/ slot-antenna structure is long and the lifetime of the plasma source is limited by the lifetime of the associated charged-particle-extraction grid (if used) or the lifetime of the microwave power source. The device includes a series of matched radiating slot pairs that are distributed along the length of a plasma-source discharge chamber (see figure). This arrangement enables the production of plasma in a distributed fashion, thereby giving rise to a uniform plasma profile. A uniform plasma profile is necessary for uniformity in any electron- or ion-extraction electrostatic optics. The slotted configuration of the waveguide/ antenna structure makes the device scalable to larger areas and higher powers. All that is needed for scaling up is the attachment of additional matched radiating slots along the length of the discharge chamber. If it is desired to make the power per slot remain constant in scaling up, then the input microwave power must be increased accordingly. Unlike in prior ECR microwave plasma-generating devices, there is no need for an insulating window on the antenna. Such windows are sources of contamination and gradually become ineffective as they become coated with erosion products over time. These characteristics relegate prior ECR microwave plasma-generating devices to non-ion beam, non-deposition plasma applications. In contrast, the lack of need for an insulating window in the present device makes it possible to use the device in both ion-beam (including deposition) and electron-beam applications. The device is designed so that ECR takes place above each slot and the gradient of the magnetic field at each slot is enough to prevent backflow of plasma.

Foster, John E.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Solid-state Architecture Batteries for Enhanced Rechargeability and Safety (SABERS) for Extended Deep Space Applications

Extended duration deep space missions as well as permanent space habitats face numerous technical challenges, key among them is energy generation and energy storage. There are considerable monetary and technical barriers to the generation of power in space. Therefore, it is important to store and be able to access power in an efficient and safe manner over a large number of cycles. Energy storage and in particular, batteries, are vital to the operation of next-generation extraterrestrial shuttles, rovers, habitats and extravehicular activity (EVA) space suits. The performance metrics for extended duration space missions are at least 2 times greater than those set for terrestrial applications such as electric automobiles. Furthermore, safety is essential for operation of space missions particularly involving astronauts such as shuttles, habitats and EVA space suits. Preliminary systems level analysis has indicated that there are five key properties which must be optimized for successful implementation of battery systems. Those five key criteria are: safety, energy density, power, packaging design and scalability. Current state-of-the-art (SOA) lithium-ion batteries can meet or exceed the requirements for certain space applications in the areas of power and scalability, yet are insufficient in the key performance criteria of energy, safety and packaging design. The SABERS concept proposes a battery that meets all five key performance criteria through development of a solid-state architecture battery utilizing high capacity sulfur-selenium cathode and lithium metal anode. The combination of sulfur and selenium offers a balanced energy-to-power density ratio, which can be tailored to the specific application by altering the stoichiometric ratios of sulfur to selenium. This hybrid cathode will be developed by implementing NASA patented holey graphene technology as a highly conductive, ultra-lightweight electrode scaffold. A solid-state electrolyte will be used as a safe, non-flammable replacement to the highly flammable liquid organic electrolytes currently used in SOA lithium-ion batteries. This solid-state lithium-sulfur/selenium cell will be designed into a serial stacking configuration to enable dense packaging of the battery cells. The serial stacking configuration is termed a bipolar stack, which has the advantages of reducing overall cell weight, simplifying the interfaced connections for the cell, and minimizing the cooling requirements for the cell. Lastly, optimization of battery components will occur through a robust and rigorous combination of various computational modeling techniques covering multiple length scales. The expected result will be a fully solid-state battery with operational temperatures up to 150 °C which provides the required energy density, discharge rates, and inherent safety to meet the strict space mission performance criteria. In particular, the wide operational temperature window is required for the large temperature ranges which are experienced across a broad range of potential space missions. This presentation will show initial results that demonstrate the SABERS team has developed a composite carbon-sulfur cathode which exceeds 1100 Wh/kg at a discharge rate of 0.4C, and 804 Wh/kg at a discharge rate of 1C. Additionally, this presentation will show the SABERS team multiscale computational modeling approach and has produced a novel particle dynamics method called Solid Electrolyte Sphere Approximation Model (SESAM). SESAM is on the 1-10 µm scale and provides electromechanical and grain interactions for predictive design guidelines for the experimental team to follow.

Urban Air Mobility (UAM) Vehicles↗

DOE OSTI2025

Regulatory helix plays a key role in genetic ON-OFF switching for the 2’-deoxyguanosine sensing mRNA element

Transcriptional riboswitches, noncoding mRNA elements that operate in cis to regulate gene expression, have a promising potential in medicine, synthetic biology and directed evolution. They bind to cellular metabolites or metal ions with high specificity, leading to conformational rearrangements that facilitate the activation or premature termination of transcription for downstream genes. This elegant mechanism for feedback regulation of metabolic pathways has been identified in prokaryotes and a few in eukaryotes. Our chemical probing of the 2’-deoxyguanosine (2’-dG)-sensing riboswitch demonstrates that the overall conformational state of the full-length riboswitch (dGsw-fl) is unresponsive to the 2’-dG. Although binding proceeds as expected, dGsw-fl exclusively populates an OFF state of transcriptional inhibition. We chemically probed the structure of a known dGsw transcriptional intermediate (dGsw-int) to evaluate the possibility of a cotranscriptional regulatory role. Interestingly, apo dGsw-int adopts an alternative conformation in which a stable anti-terminator helix is formed, leading to an ON state where transcription can proceed. In the presence of 2’-dG, this anti-terminator helix is destabilized to produce a conformation reminiscent of the full-length, OFF-state dGsw. Using a fluorescence quenching assay, we demonstrate that binding 2’-dG to early transcriptional intermediates can inhibit the formation of the anti-terminator helix, locking dGsw in an OFF state. These data suggest that metabolite sensing occurs during a brief window of time between the synthesis of two transcriptional intermediates. Our studies indicate that dGsw does not function as a binary ON−OFF switch, but instead fine-tunes the transcription of downstream genes during RNA synthesis using key intermediates.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2012

Low Noise Amplifiers and Receivers for Remote Sensing

The study of atmospheric dynamics and climatology depend on accurate and frequent measurements of temperature and humidity profiles of the atmosphere. These measurements furthermore enable highly accurate measurements of ocean topography by providing total column water vapour data for radar path delay correction. The atmospheric temperature profile is characterized at the oxygen molecule absorption frequencies (60 and 118 GHz) and the humidity profile at the water molecule absorption frequencies (23 and 183 GHz). Total column measurements can be achieved by comparing measured radiometric temperatures at atmospheric window channels, such as 90, 130, and 166 GHz. The standard receiver technology for these frequencies was diode mixers with MMIC LNAs being applied at the lower frequencies. The sensitivity of millimeter wave receivers improved significantly with the introduction of the low noise 35 nm gate length InP MMIC amplifiers. We currently achieve 3 dB noise figure at 180 GHz and 2 dB noise figure at 90 GHz with our MMIC low noise amplifiers (LNAs) in room temperature. These amplifiers and the receivers we have built using them made it possible to conduct highly accurate airborne measurements campaigns from the Global Hawk unmanned aerial vehicle, develop millimeter wave internally calibrated radiometers for altimeter radar path delay correction, and build prototypes of large arrays of millimeter receivers for a geostationary interferometric sounder. We use the developed millimeter wave receivers to measure temperature and humidity profiles in the atmosphere and in hurricanes as well as to characterize the path delay error in ocean topography alitmetery.

low noise temperature↗

NASA NTRS2011

Low Noise Amplifiers and Receivers for Remote Sensing

The study of atmospheric dynamics and climatology depend on accurate and frequent measurements of temperature and humidity profiles of the atmosphere. These measurements furthermore enable highly accurate measurements of ocean topography by providing total column water vapour data for radar path delay correction. The atmospheric temperature profile is characterised at the oxygen molecule absorption frequencies (60 and 118 GHz) and the humidity profile at the water molecule absorption frequencies (23 and 183 GHz). Total column measurements can be achieved by comparing measured radiometric temperatures at atmospheric window channels, such as 90, 130 and 166 GHz. The standard receiver technology for these frequencies was diode mixers with MMIC LNAs being applied at the lower frequencies. The sensitivity of millimetre wave receivers improved significantly with the introduction of the low noise 35 nm gate length InP MMIC amplifiers. We currently achieve 3 dB noise figure at 180 GHz and 2 dB noise figure at 90 GHz with our MMIC low noise amplifiers (LNAs) in room temperature. These amplifiers and the receivers we have built using them made it possible to conduct highly accurate airborne measurement campaigns from the Global Hawk unmanned aerial vehicle, develop millimeter wave internally calibrated radiometers for altimeter radar path delay correction, and build prototypes of large arrays of millimeter receivers for a geostationary interferometric sounder. We use the developed millimeter wave receivers to measure temperature and humidity profiles in the atmosphere and in hurricanes as well as to characterize the path delay error in ocean topography altimetry.

low noise amplifier↗

NASA NTRS2021

The Imaging X-Ray Polarimetry Explorer (IXPE): Technical Overview IV

Scheduled to launch in late 2021,the Imaging X-ray Polarimetry Explorer (IXPE) is a Small Explorer Mission designed to open up a new window of investigation --X-ray polarimetry. The IXPE observatory features 3 identical telescopes each consisting of a mirror module assembly with a polarization-sensitive imaging x-ray detector at its focus. An extending boom, deployed on orbit, provides the necessary 4 m focal length. The payload sits atop a 3-axis stabilized spacecraft which, among other things, provides power, attitude determination and control, commanding, and telemetry to the ground. During its 2-year baseline mission, IXPE will conduct precise polarimetry for samples of multiple categories of x-ray sources, with follow-on observations of selected targets. IXPE is a partnership between NASA and the Italian Space Agency (ASI).

X-ray polarimetry↗

NASA NTRS1991

Prototype high speed optical delay line for stellar interferometry

The long baselines of the next-generation ground-based optical stellar interferometers require optical delay lines which can maintain nm-level path-length accuracy while moving at high speeds. NASA-JPL is currently designing delay lines to meet these requirements. The design is an enhanced version of the Mark III delay line, with the following key features: hardened, large diameter wheels, rather than recirculating ball bearings, to reduce mechanical noise; a friction-drive cart which bears the cable-dragging forces, and drives the optics cart through a force connection only; a balanced PZT assembly to enable high-bandwidth path-length control; and a precision aligned flexural suspension for the optics assembly to minimize bearing noise feedthrough. The delay line is fully programmable in position and velocity, and the system is controlled with four cascaded software feedback loops. Preliminary performance is a jitter in any 5 ms window of less than 10 nm rms for delay rates of up to 28 mm/s; total jitter is less than 10 nm rms for delay rates up to 20 mm/s.

Colavita, M. M.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Technical note: Using long short-term memory models to fill data gaps in hydrological monitoring networks

Abstract. Quantifying the spatiotemporal dynamics in subsurface hydrological flows over a long time window usually employs a network of monitoring wells. However, such observations are often spatially sparse with potential temporal gaps due to poor quality or instrument failure. In this study, we explore the ability of recurrent neural networks to fill gaps in a spatially distributed time-series dataset. We use a well network that monitors the dynamic and heterogeneous hydrologic exchanges between the Columbia River and its adjacent groundwater aquifer at the U.S. Department of Energy's Hanford site. This 10-year-long dataset contains hourly temperature, specific conductance, and groundwater table elevation measurements from 42 wells with gaps of various lengths. We employ a long short-term memory (LSTM) model to capture the temporal variations in the observed system behaviors needed for gap filling. The performance of the LSTM-based gap-filling method was evaluated against a traditional autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) method in terms of error statistics and accuracy in capturing the temporal patterns of river corridor wells with various dynamics signatures. Our study demonstrates that the ARIMA models yield better average error statistics, although they tend to have larger errors during time windows with abrupt changes or high-frequency (daily and subdaily) variations. The LSTM-based models excel in capturing both high-frequency and low-frequency (monthly and seasonal) dynamics. However, the inclusion of high-frequency fluctuations may also lead to overly dynamic predictions in time windows that lack such fluctuations. The LSTM can take advantage of the spatial information from neighboring wells to improve the gap-filling accuracy, especially for long gaps in system states that vary at subdaily scales. While LSTM models require substantial training data and have limited extrapolation power beyond the conditions represented in the training data, they afford great flexibility to account for the spatial correlations, temporal correlations, and nonlinearity in data without a priori assumptions. Thus, LSTMs provide effective alternatives to fill in data gaps in spatially distributed time-series observations characterized by multiple dominant frequencies of variability, which are essential for advancing our understanding of dynamic complex systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1999

Liquid Methane/Liquid Oxygen Injectors for Potential Future Mars Ascent Engines

Preliminary mission studies for human exploration of Mars have been performed at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). These studies indicate that for chemical rockets only a cryogenic propulsion system would provide high enough performance to be considered for a Mars ascent vehicle. Although the mission is possible with Earth-supplied propellants for this vehicle, utilization of in-situ propellants is highly attractive. This option would significantly reduce the overall mass of launch vehicles. Consequently, the cost of the mission would be greatly reduced because the number and size of the Earth launch vehicle(s) needed for the mission would decrease. NASA/Johnson Space Center has initiated several concept studies of in-situ propellant production plants. Liquid oxygen (LOX) is the primary candidate for an in-situ oxidizer. In-situ fuel candidates include methane (CH4), ethylene (C2H4), and methanol (CH3OH). MSFC initiated a technology development program for a cryogenic propulsion system for the Mars human exploration mission in 1998. One part of this technology program is the effort described here: an evaluation of propellant injection concepts for a LOX/liquid methane Mars Ascent Engine (MAE) with an emphasis on light-weight, high efficiency, reliability, and thermal compatibility. In addition to the main objective, hot-fire tests of the subject injectors will be used to test other key technologies including light-weight combustion chamber materials and advanced ignition concepts. This paper will address the results of the liquid methane/LOX injector study conducted at MSFC. A total of four impinging injector configurations were tested under combustion conditions in a modular combustor test article (MCTA), equipped with optically accessible windows. A series of forty hot-fire tests, which covered a wide range of engine operating conditions with the chamber pressure varied from 320 to 510 and the mixture ratio from 1.5 to 3.5, were performed. The test matrix also included a variation in the combustion chamber length for the purpose of investigating its effects on the combustion performance and stability.

Trinh, Huu Phuoc↗

DOE OSTI2020

Assembly of Disordered Cocontinuous Morphologies by Multiblock Copolymers with Random Block Sequence and Length Dispersity

Among the wide variety of nanostructures accessible by self-assembly of block copolymers, cocontinuous morphologies are of great interest for separations, catalysis, sensing, and energy storage due to their ability to integrate distinct properties of the constituent polymers. Furthermore, we investigate the tendency to form disordered cocontinuous phases of multiblock copolymers (MBCs) with random block sequence and length dispersity prepared by step-growth polymerization of pre-made telechelic polymers, specifically using thiol-Michael addition between diacrylate functionalized polystyrene (PS) and poly (D,L - lactide) (PLA) chains and a small molecule dithiol. In the phase diagram so established, disordered cocontinuous nanostructures occupy a wide window (≈ 25 % vol) at a modest segregation strength of χN = 15, close to the critical value for microphase separation. At a higher segregation strength of χN = 30, only a moderately wide (≈ 10 vol %) cocontinuous window is found, with MBCs instead tending to form ordered nanostructures. Although the breadth of the cocontinuous widow is less than that found in prior work on analogous randomly end-linked copolymer networks (RECNs), the MBC architecture offers offsetting advantages in terms of solution and melt processability.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1974

A new mass spectrometer system for investigating laser-induced vaporization phenomena

A laser has been combined with a mass spectrometer in a new configuration developed for studies of high-temperature materials. A vacuum-lock, solid-sample inlet is mounted at one end of a cylindrical, high-vacuum chamber one meter in length with a nude ion-source, time-of-flight mass spectrometer at the opposite end. The samples are positioned along the axis of the chamber at distances up to one meter from the ion source, and their surfaces are vaporized by a pulsed laser beam entering via windows on one side of the chamber. The instrumentation along with its capabilities is described, and results from laser-induced vaporization of several graphites are presented.

Lincoln, K. A.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Prediction of Active-Region CME Productivity from Magnetograms

We report results of an expanded evaluation of whole-active-region magnetic measures as predictors of active-region coronal mass ejection (CME) productivity. Previously, in a sample of 17 vector magnetograms of 12 bipolar active regions observed by the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) vector magnetograph, from each magnetogram we extracted a measure of the size of the active region (the active region s total magnetic flux a) and four measures of the nonpotentiality of the active region: the strong-shear length L(sub SS), the strong-gradient length L(sub SG), the net vertical electric current I(sub N), and the net-current magnetic twist parameter alpha (sub IN). This sample size allowed us to show that each of the four nonpotentiality measures was statistically significantly correlated with active-region CME productivity in time windows of a few days centered on the day of the magnetogram. We have now added a fifth measure of active-region nonpotentiality (the best-constant-alpha magnetic twist parameter (alpha sub BC)), and have expanded the sample to 36 MSFC vector magnetograms of 31 bipolar active regions. This larger sample allows us to demonstrate statistically significant correlations of each of the five nonpotentiality measures with future CME productivity, in time windows of a few days starting from the day of the magnetogram. The two magnetic twist parameters (alpha (sub 1N) and alpha (sub BC)) are normalized measures of an active region s nonpotentially in that they do not depend directly on the size of the active region, while the other three nonpotentiality measures (L(sub SS), L(sub SG), and I(sub N)) are non-normalized measures in that they do depend directly on active-region size. We find (1) Each of the five nonpotentiality measures is statistically significantly correlated (correlation confidence level greater than 95%) with future CME productivity and has a CME prediction success rate of approximately 80%. (2) None of the nonpotentiality measures is a significantly better CME predictor than the others. (3) The active-region phi shows some correlation with CME productivity, but well below a statistically significant level (correlation confidence level less than approximately 80%; CME prediction success rate less than approximately 65%). (4) In addition to depending on magnetic twist, CME productivity appears to have some direct dependence on active-region size (rather than only an indirect dependence through a correlation of magnetic twist with active-region size), but it will take a still larger sample of active regions (50 or more) to certify this. (5) Of the five nonpotentiality measures, L(sub SG) appears to be the best for operational CME forecasting because it is as good or better a CME predictor than the others and it alone does not require a vector magnetogram; L(sub SG) can be measured from a line-of-sight magnetogram such as from the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO).

Falconer, D. A.↗