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DOE OSTI2021

Sandtank-ML: An Educational Tool at the Interface of Hydrology and Machine Learning

Hydrologists and water managers increasingly face challenges associated with extreme climatic events. At the same time, historic datasets for modeling contemporary and future hydrologic conditions are increasingly inadequate. Machine learning is one promising technological tool for navigating the challenges of understanding and managing contemporary hydrological systems. However, in addition to the technical challenges associated with effectively leveraging ML for understanding subsurface hydrological processes, practitioner skepticism and hesitancy surrounding ML presents a significant barrier to adoption of ML technologies among practitioners. In this paper, we discuss an educational application we have developed—Sandtank-ML—to be used as a training and educational tool aimed at building user confidence and supporting adoption of ML technologies among water managers. We argue that supporting the adoption of ML methods and technologies for subsurface hydrological investigations and management requires not only the development of robust technologic tools and approaches, but educational strategies and tools capable of building confidence among diverse users.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Scenario Planning Management Actions to Restore Cold Water Stream Habitat: Comparing Mechanistic and Statistical Modeling Approaches

ABSTRACT Under the United States Clean Water Act, states are required to periodically assess state waters to determine compliance with water quality criteria (including temperature) and then to develop total maximum daily loads (TMDLs) for impaired waters as necessary to bring them into compliance. We compared the performance of mechanistic stream temperature models (HeatSource, QUAL2K, and QUAL2Kw) applied to the mainstem of three TMDL watersheds (Middle Fork John Day, OR; Wind River, WA; South Fork Nooksack, WA) with that of spatial stream network (SSN) models applied to the full watersheds and used these to evaluate the potential effectiveness of restoration strategies. SSN models performed well with slightly lesser accuracy (RMSE = 0.47–0.87) for mainstem predictions than mechanistic models (RMSE = 0.4) but provided additional benefits to inform management, including information on spatial and temporal heterogeneity of restoration effectiveness throughout the watershed. Of the four scenarios considered (restoration of riparian zones to potential natural vegetation, channel narrowing, increasing flow by restricting irrigation withdrawals, and combined applications), riparian zone restoration was consistently the most effective in reducing temperatures at the outlet, mainstem, and throughout the watersheds. Predicted restoration effectiveness for thermal regimes varied significantly both within and among watersheds. A focus on water quality criteria exceedance only at the watershed outlet or along the mainstem reach can obscure knowledge of restoration potential for fish habitat in tributaries and headwaters, potential for creation of thermal refuge areas along the mainstem critical for maintaining migration corridors, and thermal regime heterogeneity across space and time.

Fuller, M. R.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Practical Guide to Measuring Wetland Carbon Pools and Fluxes

Abstract Wetlands cover a small portion of the world, but have disproportionate influence on global carbon (C) sequestration, carbon dioxide and methane emissions, and aquatic C fluxes. However, the underlying biogeochemical processes that affect wetland C pools and fluxes are complex and dynamic, making measurements of wetland C challenging. Over decades of research, many observational, experimental, and analytical approaches have been developed to understand and quantify pools and fluxes of wetland C. Sampling approaches range in their representation of wetland C from short to long timeframes and local to landscape spatial scales. This review summarizes common and cutting-edge methodological approaches for quantifying wetland C pools and fluxes. We first define each of the major C pools and fluxes and provide rationale for their importance to wetland C dynamics. For each approach, we clarify what component of wetland C is measured and its spatial and temporal representativeness and constraints. We describe practical considerations for each approach, such as where and when an approach is typically used, who can conduct the measurements (expertise, training requirements), and how approaches are conducted, including considerations on equipment complexity and costs. Finally, we review key covariates and ancillary measurements that enhance the interpretation of findings and facilitate model development. The protocols that we describe to measure soil, water, vegetation, and gases are also relevant for related disciplines such as ecology. Improved quality and consistency of data collection and reporting across studies will help reduce global uncertainties and develop management strategies to use wetlands as nature-based climate solutions.

Bansal, Sheel (ORCID:0000000312331707)↗

DOE OSTI2020

(Invited) Virtual Analysis of Gas-Diffusion-Electrode CO 2 Electrolyzers

The electrochemical reduction of CO 2 (CO 2 R) to value-added products is an attractive technology for tackling the rising atmospheric CO 2 levels and storing intermittent renewable energy into chemical bonds. Fundamental understanding of CO 2 R has progressed significantly in recent years and is critical in the development of CO 2 R to liquid-fuel electrolyzers, where gas-diffusion electrodes (GDEs) have been shown to be key enabling architectures. Various designs have been proposed and studied in the literature to enhance overall selectivity, rates, and maximize the conversion of CO 2 , the latter of which is only now being recognized as a critical issue. In this respect, there is a need to explore the governing phenomena inherent in these architectures to enable optimization. Mathematical modeling is ideally suited to tackle and explore these multiphysics interactions and provide virtual design analysis. In this talk, we discuss modeling methodologies and physics inherent in these devices and present our recent modeling of GDEs for CO 2 reduction. We specifically examine the impacts of multiphase flow and related phenomena on overall cell performance. We then explore the performance and limitations of various cell designs guided by simulation results and examine potential methods for improving water management and tuning catalyst selectivity including the use of different anion-exchange and bipolar membranes. Finally, we discuss the disparities in local environments between aqueous and GDE devices and propose strategies to reduce the gap in knowledge between the two systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Virtual Analysis of Gas-Diffusion-Electrode CO 2 Electrolyzers

The electrochemical reduction of CO 2 (CO2R) to value-added products is an attractive technology for tackling the rising atmospheric CO 2 levels and storing intermittent renewable energy into chemical bonds. Fundamental understanding of CO 2 R has progressed significantly in recent years and is critical in the development of CO 2 R to liquid-fuel electrolyzers, where gas-diffusion electrodes (GDEs) have been shown to be key enabling architectures. Various designs have been proposed and studied in the literature to enhance overall selectivity, rates, and maximize the conversion of CO 2 , the latter of which is only now being recognized as a critical issue. In this respect, there is a need to explore the governing phenomena inherent in these architectures to enable optimization. Mathematical modeling is ideally suited to tackle and explore these multiphysics interactions and provide virtual design analysis. In this talk, we discuss modeling methodologies and physics inherent in these devices and present our recent modeling of GDEs for CO 2 reduction. Here, we specifically examine the impacts of multiphase flow and related phenomena on overall cell performance. We then explore the performance and limitations of various cell designs guided by simulation results and examine potential methods for improving water management and tuning catalyst selectivity including the use of different anion-exchange and bipolar membranes. Finally, we discuss the disparities in local environments between aqueous and GDE devices and propose strategies to reduce the gap in knowledge between the two systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Retrospective on decadal progress of the NOAA/NPS ocean noise reference station network

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), in partnership with the U.S. National Park Service (NPS), established the Ocean Noise Reference Station Network (NRS) in 2014 as a foundational component of NOAA’s Ocean Noise Strategy. This long-term effort aims to characterize baseline ocean ambient sound conditions across diverse marine environments and to inform management of noise impacts on protected species and habitats within U.S. waters. The NRS is now composed of 13 autonomous passive acoustic monitoring stations strategically positioned across the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), extending from Arctic regions to tropical waters in depths ranging from 33 to 4,790 m. These locations include several National Marine Sanctuaries and National Parks, such as the recently designated Chumash Heritage National Marine Sanctuary off the coast of California. Each station is equipped to continuously sample low-frequency underwater sound at five kHz, enabling the detection of anthropogenic, geophysical, and biological acoustic signals. To date the network has sampled over 72 years of calibrated acoustic data. The spatial breadth and consistent methodology of the NRS allow for comparative acoustic assessments across diverse marine ecosystems. In addition to applied research functions, the NRS has served as a platform for education and training, offering opportunities for students to develop skills for marine science and data analysis. Looking forward, the NRS project team is focused on network expansion, improved data delivery, and broader integration with collaborative scientific initiatives. NRS recordings are being archived in partnership with NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information to enhance accessibility and long-term utility. Efforts are underway to develop standardized metadata and summary products to accompany raw audio files, making the data more usable for a wide range of stakeholders in the ocean science community. The NRS is evolving into a fully integrated national framework for ocean sound monitoring that supports scientific inquiry, management decision-making, national security interests, and public engagement with ocean acoustic environments.

Long-term monitoring↗

DOE OSTI2023

Oak Ridge National Laboratory Annual Sustainability Report 2023

ORNL, managed under contract by UT-Battelle LLC, is DOE’s largest science and energy laboratory and, as such, executes the widest range of mission capabilities. Diverse expertise spans a broad range of scientific and engineering disciplines, enabling research and science achievements to accelerate the delivery of solutions to the marketplace. ORNL supports DOE’s national missions of scientific discovery, clean energy, and security. To execute these activities, ORNL has grown significantly over 80 years of continuous operations, consisting of facilities with commissioning dates ranging from the 1940s to the present—an extraordinary set of distinctive scientific facilities and equipment. The complexities of such a variety of facilities require teamwork among divisions, a wide variety of conservation projects, and creative strategies to achieve the desired energy and water savings. Such a diverse and unique set of major facilities, totaling over 5.5 million square feet, with 6,000 employees, requires an innovative plan to accomplish advancements in operational efficiencies. ORNL is tasked with the management of an extraordinary set of distinctive scientific facilities and equipment for DOE. ORNL is mission-driven, and its mission has grown substantially over the decades. ORNL’s core research capabilities provide broad science and technology support for DOE in the areas of energy, environment, and national security. Currently, ORNL is a world leader in materials, neutron, and nuclear science and engineering, and in high-performance computing and data analytics. ORNL’s vast portfolio of research facilities must be maintained and carefully upgraded to protect the nation’s investment in scientific analysis. The goal of sustainable and resilient operations is to enable more effective execution of ORNL’s science and technology mission. Sustainable operational practices and enhanced resilience strive for excellent results while remaining diligent in energy conservation, environmental stewardship, asset management, and community engagement. The Sustainable ORNL Program (Sustainable ORNL) Continuous improvements in operational and business processes must be integrated into the fabric of the ORNL culture to maximize the return from the investment made in modernizing facilities and equipment. The Sustainable ORNL program promotes the legacy of system-wide best practices, management commitment, and employee engagement that will lead ORNL into a future of efficient, resilient, and sustainable operations. ORNL leadership and Sustainable ORNL champions receive regular status reports on the progress of each project and focus area (i.e., roadmap) and periodic summary reports. More information can be found at the program’s website. The Sustainable ORNL roadmap structure endorses 15 vital roadmaps. The figure below summarizes the current project assignments and demonstrates that each project contributes to the wellbeing of the whole. Continuous employee engagement and regular status reports confirm the ideals of the program. The roadmap structure is not static; as the science mission advances and the needs of the organization evolve, the Sustainable ORNL roadmap structure elements are modified to align with developing priorities. In 2022, Sustainable ORNL made roadmap changes to better align ORNL to support new federal requirements that have been issued.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Caribbean deepwater snappers: Application of the bomb radiocarbon age estimation validation in understanding aspects of ecology and life history

Reef fishes have been utilized as food fish throughout the U.S. Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico waters for centuries, with increasing fishing effort in recent decades. As a result, many species have experienced declines in landings, including deepwater snappers such as queen snapper Etelis oculatus and blackfin snapper Lutjanus buccanella . However, little to no peer-reviewed published research exists on basic life history parameters for either species. Confirming the accuracy of an age estimation method for a fish species is essential for ensuring sustainable fisheries management. This is because in the assessment of fisheries species population age-based parameters, including longevity, age at sexual maturity, growth rate, mortality, age-specific reproductive output, and lifetime reproductive output, are important in understanding overall life history strategies of managed stocks. The past stock assessment on U.S. Caribbean queen snapper utilized an estimated longevity of 8 y, derived from length frequencies for fish from St. Lucia. Blackfin snapper has an estimated longevity of 27 y based on a relatively small study from offshore waters of the southeastern U.S. The focus of our investigation was to estimate maximum longevity of two data-poor species in the U.S. Caribbean. The accuracy of ageing methods was tested via bomb radiocarbon age estimation validation and effects of depth on Δ 14 C in otolith cores and eye lens core values were examined. Results from our work indicate a maximum validated age of 45 y for queen snapper, and 43 y for blackfin snapper. Our findings indicate queen snapper and blackfin snapper are long-lived (> 40 y). The resulting Δ 14 C comparison between eye lens cores and otolith cores has important implications for the study of age validation, specifically when deepwater species are involved.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

River systems under peaked stress

The change in the global energy production mix towards variable renewable energy sources requires efficient utilization of regulated rivers to optimise hydropower operations meet the needs of a changing energy market. However, the flexible operation of hydropower plants causes non-natural, sub-daily fluctuating flows in the receiving water bodies, often referred to as ‘hydropeaking’. Drastic changes in sub-daily flow regimes undermine attempts to improve river system health. Environmental decision makers, including permitting authorities and river basin managers facing the intense and increasing pressure on river environments, should consider ecosystem services and biodiversity issues more thoroughly. The need for research innovations in hydropeaking operation design to fulfil both the water and energy security responsibilities of hydropower is highlighted. Our paper outlines optimized hydropeaking design as a future research direction to help researchers, managers, and decision-makers prioritize actions that could enable better integration of river science and energy system planning. The goal of this is to find a balanced hydropower operation strategy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Results of Speciation Determination Measurements of Insulating Sulfur Hexafluoride Gas

Under the direction of the NNSA NA-231 Mo-99 Program, SRNL has provided technical assistance to U.S. companies under cooperative agreements. One such area of technical assistance has been for the recommendation for contamination management methods in the eventuality that tritium contaminates the insulating gas of a high-voltage ion source used in the accelerator-based process developed by SHINE Medical Technologies to produce Mo-99. The SHINE accelerator process uses tritium as the target of a deuterium ion beam, where the ion beam is produced within a high-voltage ion source insulated with sulfur hexafluoride (SF 6 ), and is separated from the tritium target by an extensive pump train. Normal operating conditions preclude the conditions necessary for contamination of the insulating gas, however certain atypical conditions could result in a tritium contamination event. Accelerator based processes for medical isotope production represent an anomalous tritium contamination challenge due to the presence of SF 6 . SF 6 decomposes through normal use as an insulator gas, and the exact speciation of the decomposition byproducts depends on a variety of factors. This creates a scenario where the anticipation of species present in the insulating gas mixture is difficult. In turn, the fate of tritium within such a chemical system is unclear. This document discusses the results of measurements made in-situ of the SF 6 insulating gas in use within a SHINE Medical Technology’s high-voltage ion source. This was done in an effort to determine the chemical speciation of the gas, allowing for the recommendation of management strategies in the event that tritium contaminates the insulating gas. The results of the measurements reported in this work suggest that tritium contamination in the insulating gas may result in two chemical forms of tritium in the system, tritiated water and molecular tritium. These two forms of tritium would be captured by two methods. Tritiated water may be captured and removed from the SF 6 by an adsorbent canister already present within the pressure vessel that houses the insulating gas while in use. It may also be separated from the SF 6 during routine purification of the SF 6 , which is performed by SHINE personnel routinely. The purification cart will perform all non-embedded systems cleanup necessary to remediate tritiated species in the system. The purification cart passes the insulating gas through several filters, followed by the liquefication of the SF 6 . The filters will separate tritiated water from the SF 6 at this stage. It is expected that molecular tritium will accumulate in the gas-phase during the liquification step, which is separated and stored. Tritium may be recovered from this mixture through more conventional hydrogen purification methods such as a palladium diffuser.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2022

Correlating the Morphological Changes to Electrochemical Performance During Carbon Corrosion in Polymer Electrolyte Fuel Cells

A mechanistic understanding of carbon corrosion in polymer electrolyte fuel cells (PEFCs) is required to design durable catalyst layers. Uncontrolled startup and shutdown of PEFCs cause electrochemical oxidation of carbon, which leads to several degradation phenomena, such as loss in electrochemical surface area (ECSA), pore structure collapse or increase in mass transport resistance. In this study, the chronology of morphological changes in the cathode catalyst layer due to carbon corrosion was identified and correlated with electrochemical performance degradation. PEFCs were subjected to the Department of Energy carbon corrosion accelerated stress test (AST) protocol. The study revealed two phases: in the initial phase (~500 AST cycles), amorphous carbon in contact with Pt nanoparticles oxidized fast. Rapid carbon loss and catalyst layer thinning occurred, but pore structure did not change significantly. Pt nanoparticles detached from the support and ECSA decreased drastically. In the second phase (~1500 AST cycles), carbon corrosion slowed down, but severe pore structure collapse was observed. Porosity and pore connectivity within the cathode catalyst layer decreased considerably. Electrochemical diagnostics corroborated this finding by showing significantly higher O2 mass transport resistance. Lastly, no significant change was observed in the concentration of oxides on the carbon surface after AST. But overall water management in the cathode catalyst layer deteriorated as the pore structure collapsed. This study provides an in-depth understanding of morphological changes during PEFC carbon corrosion AST protocol and motivates novel material design strategies to enable durable PEFCs.

catalyst layers↗

DOE OSTI2024

Efficacy of underground aggregate infiltration beds under a permeable pavement system

Urban areas often face significant flooding challenges due to impermeable surfaces that exacerbate stormwater runoff, making effective stormwater management essential. This study demonstrated that combining pervious concrete pavement systems with underground aggregate storage beds and rain gardens can significantly enhance water infiltration and drainage efficiency, providing valuable insights for designing low-impact development strategies in flood-prone regions.

Haselbach, Liv [Lamar Univ., Beaumont, TX (United ↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating Production Implications of Pressure Maintenance in Unconventional Oil and Gas Wells using a Machine Learning Modeling Approach: Case Study in the Permian Basin

This study implements the proprietary machine learning-based model (model) developed under the 2022 study titled “Evaluating the Impact of Proprietary Oil & Gas Data on Machine Learning Model Performance Using a Quasi-Experimental Analytical Approach” for forecasting unconventional oil and gas production using well data from the Permian Basin. The model, developed using an exclusive dataset that includes time series production data from an operator in the Permian Basin, is designed to jointly predict daily oil, gas, and water production for horizontal wells as a function of bottomhole pressure drawdown, spatial placement across the study domain, and well-completion attributes. In this study, the model was explicitly applied to explore its utility to evaluate the impact of varying drawdown strategies on the production forecast of a well in the Permian Basin dataset. Managing pressure drawdown has been identified as a way to improve estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) from unconventional shale wells due to the stress-dependent nature of fractures in shale reservoirs. Research has shown that applying a lower pressure drawdown helps to maintain the reservoir conductivity, resulting in higher productivity over the life of a well. Historic bottomhole pressure data from the well over time was used as a benchmark from which to set more and less aggressive pressure decline rates as bounding modeling cases. All pressure decline rates/strategies were forecasted over 5 years, and the model was used to generate oil, water, and gas prediction over the same timeframe. This report presents the results from the production forecast and discusses potential operational and economic implications, with contrasting perspectives between well productivity and profitability given typical oil and gas economics and the volatility in the oil and gas market.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2021

FY 2022 Idaho National Laboratory Site Sustainability Plan

The mission of the Department of Energy (DOE) is to ensure America’s security and prosperity by addressing its energy, environmental and nuclear challenges through transformative science and technology solutions. This FY 2022 Idaho National Laboratory Site Sustainability Plan (SSP) was developed to enable and sustain Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL’s) mission to discover, demonstrate, and secure innovative nuclear solutions, clean energy options, and critical infrastructure. DOE Order 436.1, “Departmental Sustainability,” provides requirements and assigns responsibilities for managing sustainability within DOE to ensure that DOE missions are carried out in a sustainable manner, to institute wholesale cultural change to factor sustainability into all DOE decisions, and to ensure DOE achieves sustainability goals. DOE Order 436.1 also requires DOE sites to commit appropriate personnel resources, establish a financing plan that prioritizes the use of life-cycle cost effective private-sector financing, optimize the application of appropriations and budgeted funds, and establish specific performance measures and deliverables designed to achieve the listed requirements. The SSP was developed according to the narrative requirements from the “FY 2022 DOE Site Sustainability Plan Guidance” document issued in September 2021. The SSP contains strategies and activities that will lead to continual energy, water, and waste reductions that move the INL site toward meeting DOE sustainability goals and requirements. The SSP summarizes energy and available fuel use reporting requirements and references criteria for instituting sustainable design. SSP requirements are integrated into each INL site contractor’s Integrated Safety Management System and Environmental Management System (EMS). Finally, the Sustainability Program directives, based on this SSP, are integrated into INL/LTD-21-62463, Annual Laboratory Plan 2021, and operations and acquisition systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

FY 2023 Idaho National Laboratory Site Sustainability Plan

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Achieving Productivity to Recover and Restore Columbia River Stream-Type Chinook Salmon Relies on Increasing Smolt-To-Adult Survival

Abstract We analyzed and compared productivity and survival rates of populations of stream-type Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha from the upper and middle ranges of their distribution in the Columbia River basin. These two groups of populations undergo vastly different exposures during migration through the Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS). Declines of the Snake River populations, listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, have been associated with the development and operation of the FCRPS. In contrast, John Day River stream-type Chinook Salmon populations, which were less affected by the FCRPS, have declined to a lesser extent and are not listed. Smolt-to-adult survival rates (SARs) accounted for a majority of the variation in life cycle survival rates of Snake River Chinook Salmon. Productivity declined to 13% and 44% of historical productivity levels for Snake River and John Day River populations, respectively. A synthesis of previous studies contrasting anthropogenic impacts between the two regions supports the conclusion that FCRPS impacts explain the large difference in population productivity. Our results suggest that SARs of 4% would result in an expected productivity of up to 70% of historical levels (a SAR level consistent with regional restoration objectives). The SARs have been shown to be highly influenced by conditions within the FCRPS (e.g., water velocity and passage through dam powerhouses). Marine conditions also influence SARs; however, meaningful management actions are only available to affect conditions within the FCRPS. Given the importance of SARs to overall life cycle productivity, recovery and restoration strategies need to prioritize actions that have potential to substantially increase SARs by addressing the significant impacts of main-stem dams. This study highlights the importance of considering river management options in the face of increasingly variable and warming ocean conditions.

Petrosky, Charles E.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Assessing the Performance and Impact of PV Technologies on Storage in Hybrid Renewable Systems

Traditional monofacial photovoltaic (mPV) systems are commonly adopted and well-documented because of their lower upfront costs in comparison to bifacial photovoltaic (bPV) systems. This study investigates how PV technologies impact energy storage in grid-scale hybrid renewable systems, focusing on optimizing and assessing the performance of mPV and bPV technologies integrated with pumped storage hydropower. Using Ludington City, Michigan as a case study and analyzing real-world data such as solar irradiance, ambient temperature, and utility-scale load profiles, the research highlights the operational and economic benefits of bPV systems. The results reveal that bPV systems can pump approximately 10.38% more water annually to the upper reservoir while achieving a lower levelized cost of energy ($0.0578/kWh for bPV vs. $0.0672/kWh for mPV). This study underscores the outstanding potential of bPV systems in enhancing energy storage and management strategies, contributing to a more sustainable and resilient renewable energy future.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Supporting Information - How Can Crop Production Adapt to growing groundwater restrictions in the West?

Abstract This data plan outlines the structure and content of datasets generated and utilized in the research presented in the manuscript abstract. Groundwater overdraft has led to serious water supply issues in the US West. Most western states manage groundwater use through a permitting system, but California has only recently begun to restrict groundwater use statewide with the 2014 passage of groundwater restrictions which target the elimination of groundwater overdraft practices by 2042. With groundwater extraction curtailed, crop production in the US West (a $95 billion industry annually) will be affected, and appropriate response strategies will be needed to ensure minimal disruption to food production and the regional economy. In this paper, we explore the adoption of alternative adaptive responses: (a) deficit irrigation; (b) switching to less water-intensive crops; (c) changing the extent of irrigated land (including fallowing); and (d) geographically shifting crop production. Employing an integrated modeling approach, we explicitly capture the interactions and feedbacks between local hydrology, changes in crop yields, crop and land use decision-making, changes in crop prices, and regional shifts in crop production. We find that the optimal adaptive response is spatially heterogeneous and comprises a portfolio of strategies. Southwestern states and California will be the most impacted by groundwater restrictions. The optimal responses in these states are to both adopt deficit irrigation strategies and reduce a portion of their irrigated croplands, resulting in a shift in crop production to northwestern states with a larger supply of water. The datasets detailed in this repository represent the output from these integrated models, specifically designed to support the analysis and visualization presented in the manuscript and supplemental information. These datasets, used in conjunction with the scripts available at our associated GitHub repository (https://github.com/pches/Femeena_etal_How_can_crop_production_adapt), enable the reproduction of figures and facilitate a comprehensive understanding of the optimal adaptive strategies in agriculture for mitigating water stress under varying groundwater extraction scenarios, as outlined in the abstract.

DNDCe↗