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NASA NTRS1982

Variational methods in simultaneous optimum interpolation and initialization

The duality between optimum interpolation and variational objective analysis, is reviewed. This duality is used to set up a variational approach to objective analysis which uses prior information concerning the atmospheric spectral energy distribution, in the variational problem. In the wind analysis example, the wind field is partitioned into divergent and nondivergent parts, and a control parameter governing the relative energy in the two parts is estimated from the observational data being analyzed by generalized cross validation, along with a bandwidth parameter. A variational approach to combining objective analysis and initialization in a single step is proposed. In a simple example of this approach, data, forecast, and prior information concerning atmospheric energy distribution is combined into a single variational problem. This problem has (at least) one bandwidth parameter, one partitioning parameter governing the relative energy in fast slow modes, and one parameter governing the relative weight to be given to observational and forecast data.

Wahba, G.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Solar wind variations in the 60-100 year period range: A review

The evidence for and against the reality of a solar wind variation in the period range of 60-100 years is reexamined. Six data sets are reviewed; sunspot numbers, geomagnetic variations, two auroral data sets and two (14)C data sets. These data are proxies for several different aspects of the solar wind and the presence or absence of 60-100 year cyclic behavior in a particular data set does not necessarily imply the presence or absence of this variation in other sets. It was concluded that two different analyses of proxy data for a particular characteristic of the heliospheric solar wind yielded conflicting results. This conflict can be resolved only by future research. It is also definitely confirmed that proxy data for the solar wind in the ecliptic at 1 A.U. undergo a periodic variation with a period of approximately 87 years. The average amplitude and phase of this variation as seen in eleven cycles of proxy data are presented.

Feynman, J.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Shock response spectra variational analysis for pyrotechnic qualification testing of flight hardware

Shock response spectra data from flight certification tests were analyzed to determine envelope variation with respect to mean values in each axis. An overall variation of + or - 8.61 dB or 169 percent exists for the data. This large variation may be attributed to one or more of the following: (1) Instrumentation problems may exist. (2) Variations in the source charge (blasting caps) such as shape or explosive load may exist. (3) Two blasting caps were used to excite the pyrotechnic plate tester. Delay time between charge firings may have varied. The cause or causes of the variations need to be identified and researched to prevent future pyroshock problems.

Smith, J. L.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Evidence for temporal variations in polar plumes

The variability of the O VI and Mg X emissions from four plumes is studied in order to place empirical constraints on possible plasma heating processes and acceleration mechanisms for mass flows in polar plumes. The observations comprise a 40 min seqeunce of spectroheliograms acquired with a temporal resolution of approximately 2 min. It is found that the Mg X emission from each plume has a strong 'dc' component and that any variations occurred at approximately the 10 percent (of the mean) level or less. This means that temporal variations in the density and/or temperature were 5 percent or less. Some statistically significant variations in the measured Mg X signals are seen. It is noted that two of the plumes decreased in brightness by approximately 10 percent during the 40 min period of the observations. Besides this, two plumes exhibited short-term (few minute) variations that are seen as statistically significant at a confidence level of more than 90 percent. The latter variations (if real) are thought to be due to small (approximately 20,000 K) fluctuations in temperature caused by fluctuations in the local plasma heating rate.

Withbroe, G. L.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Average diurnal variation of summer lightning over the Florida peninsula

Data derived from a large network of electric field mills are used to determine the average diurnal variation of lightning in a Florida seacoast environment. The variation at the NASA Kennedy Space Center and the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station area is compared with standard weather observations of thunder, and the variation of all discharges in this area is compared with the statistics of cloud-to-ground flashes over most of the South Florida peninsula and offshore waters. The results show average diurnal variations that are consistent with statistics of thunder start times and the times of maximum thunder frequency, but that the actual lightning tends to stop one to two hours before the recorded thunder. The variation is also consistent with previous determinations of the times of maximum rainfall and maximum rainfall rate.

Maier, L. M.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Cosmic ray intensity variations observed at Matsushiro (220 M.W.E. in depth)

Cosmic ray data from Matsushiro underground station were analyzed for four years (1981 to 84). It is found that a marked semi-annual intensity variation has been observed in this period. Solar diurnal and semi-diurnal variations have also been observed. After correcting for the spurious sidereal diurnal variation arising from the anisotropy responsible for the solar semi-diurnal variation (Nagashima et al., 1983), it is found that the corrected sidereal diurnal variation is consistent with those so far reported.

Yasue, S.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Long-period cosmic ray variations and their altitude dependence

Long-period variations were studied from the data of ground-based cosmic ray (CR) observations. In spite of a large value of an 2-year variation, it is more difficult to obtain its spectrum than the spectrum of a solar diurnal variation. Serious obstacles are caused by changes in individual detectors and in the whole world wide network of CR detectors, by the absence of continuity and uniformity of data series, by various apparatus variations. In discrimination and investigation of long-period variations an important and determining point is preparation and preliminary analysis of data.

Belov, A. V.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Analysis of all-frequency variational behavior of the Kirchhoff approximation for a classic surface-scattering model

In testing a stochastic variational principle at high frequencies by using a Kirchhoffean trial function in an idealized model for surface scattering - a randomly embossed plane - we have found not only the predicted high-frequency improvement but also an unexpected low-frequency improvement in the calculated scattering amplitudes. To investigate systematically the all-frequency variational behavior, we consider here the deterministic one-boss case - Rayleigh's classic model whose exact solution is available for comparison - over all wavelengths, polarizations, and configurations of incidence and scattering. We examine analytically in particular the long-wave limit of the variational-Kirchhoff amplitudes; the results demonstrate improvements in both wavelength and angle depedence for horizontal (TM) polarization and some variational improvements for vertical (TE) polarization. This low-frequency behavior in tandem with the foreseen high-frequency improvement leads to good variational-Kirchhoff results through the intermediate resonance-frequency regime for this model.

Bird, J. F.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Detection of the response of ozone in the middle atmosphere to short-term solar ultraviolet variations

The response of ozone to solar UV variation is determined in the middle atmosphere between the heights of 10 and 0.2 mb. The definitive isolation of the smaller variations associated with short-term solar variability is accomplished only after removal of the larger changes of ozone related to temperature variations. Using this approach the correlation coefficients between detrended ozone (Nimbus 7 LIMS) and short-term 205 nm solar variation (Nimbus 7 SBUV) are found to be much higher (0.9) than achieved in previous studies. The theoretical response time and amplitude of response of ozone in the middle atmosphere to observed short-term solar UV variations is found to be in good agreement with observations, except near 0.2 mb. The corresponding long-term response over the solar cycle is also estimated.

Keating, G. M.↗

NASA NTRS1986

UT/longitudinal variations of composition in DE data

Composition data obtained by the quadrupole mass spectrometer (NACS) carried aboard the DE-B satellite were examined for variations in the polar regions during magnetically quiet conditions. The corresponding predictions of the MSIS-83 model are often used for comparison. The MSIS-83 model is used to emphasize the variations of interest by suppressing all other variations. A persistent enhancement of N2 density and a depletion of He density are present in the vicinity of the magnetic poles with maximum density response in the morning hours (magnetic) on average. A universal time (UT) variation in average density levels is evident near both the geographic and magnetic poles. There are systematic morphology changes with UT and between summer and winter which are qualitatively consistent with the simple concept that thermospheric heating effects are shifted or spread in the downwind direction of the global circulation systems driven by EUV and magnetospheric sources. The magnitude of the UT variations is larger in the southern hemisphere and is larger in local winter than summer.

Hedlin, A. E.↗

NASA NTRS1985

In situ results on the variation of neutral atmospheric hydrogen at Venus

The concentrations of neutral hydrogen, n(H), in the Venus atmosphere were derived from an ion and neutral charge exchange relationship involving O(+), H(+), O, and CO2, which were measured by OIMS and ONMS on board the Pioneer Venus for the period 1979-1980 covering three diurnal cycles of Venus. There was a persisting dawn bulge in the diurnal distribution of n(H), which peaked at levels near 5 x 10 to the 7th/cu cm at altitudes below 165 km. Large day-to-day variations of up to a factor of 5 in n(H) were frequently encountered, in addition to some local time variations in the bulge location. Although the appreciable short-term variability in n(H) makes precise assessment of the interannual variations difficult, no distinct evidence for interannual variation in n(H) was found. These results were confirmed by the facts that no significant interannual differences in n(H3) measured directly by ONMS were detected, and that only small (not more than 10 percent, decline) variations in the solar EUV flux were found in the 1979-1980 period.

Taylor, H. A., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Seasonal variations of D/H and C-13/C-12 ratios of microbial methane in surface sediments

Appreciable seasonal and spatial variation has been found in the delta D and delta C-13 of gas-phase microbial CH4 produced in the marine sediments of Cape Lookout Bight (CLB), North Carolina. The observations provide indirect evidence that the CLB CH4 delta variation reflects variation in the relative contributions of the main CH4 precursors, acetate and CO2/H2. The delta D-CH4 and delta C-13-CH4 are inversely correlated, indicating that microbial consumption is not responsible for the delta variation. While CLB is not strictly representative of wetlands in general, some of the key microbial processes and environmental characteristics that appear largely responsible for the observed CLB CH4 delta variation are probably similar in typical temperate and high-latitude wetlands.

Burke, Roger A., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Correlations between solar activity and operationally determined satellite drag variation parameters

Operational orbit determination of the Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS) and the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) spacecraft using the Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS) in the Flight Dynamics Facility (FDF) of the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) has yielded an orbit solution data base of 3 years for ERBS and 8 years for SMM. One of the parameters in each data base is the drag variation parameter used in the GTDS atmospheric drag model; this parameter is solved routinely to accommodate the different atmospheric densities as they are encountered solution to solution. These two data bases of the drag variation parameter solutions are analyzed to evaluate correlations in the variations of the parameter with changes in the 10.7-cm wavelength solar flux, F10.7, and the geomagnetic index. The data for SMM span a wider range of solar flux values and show a stronger correlation. The data for ERBS, which is at a higher altitude and inclination than SMM, show a significant degree of scatter. For both satellites, the data indicate that changes in the drag variation parameter are more strongly correlated with the F10.7 solar flux than with the geomagnetic index. Correlations with the geomagnetic index are apparent only for severe geomagnetic storm conditions. Results from this analysis enhance the understanding of the drag model and the accommodation density variations in operational orbit determination support.

Smith, E. A.↗

NASA NTRS1990

One year variations in the near earth solar wind ion density and bulk flow velocity

One-year periodic variations in the near earth solar wind ion density and bulk flow velocity are reported. The variations show an inverse relationship between the ion velocity and density. The peak strength of the observed density variation ranges from 50-100 percent over the background. These variations imply either large scale mass loading inside the earth's orbit or intrinsic solar modulations. Analyses of both near earth and Pioneer Venus Orbiter spacecraft data provide a comparison at two different heliocentric distances. Several explanations for these variations are discussed.

Bolton, Scott J.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Solar activity variation of ionospheric plasma temperatures

The present status of understanding and modeling of the variation of electron and ion temperatures with solar activity is reviewed. All atmospheric and ionospheric densities and temperatures are positively correlated with solar activity except the electron temperature, which exhibits a rather complex variation pattern during a solar cycle. The ion temperature at low altitudes closely follows the variation patterns of the neutral temperature. The electron temperature at high altitudes increases with increasing solar activity; the increase is larger during day than during night and exhibits a latitudinal variation. At low altitudes during daytime, tha amplitude of the seasonal variation of the electron temperature increases toward the solar maximum. At 400 km during daytime, the summer electron temperatures for Millstone Hill increase slightly toward higher solar activities, whereas the winter temperatures decrease distinctly. For Arecibo, an opposite trend is noticeable.

Bilitza, D.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Emission-line variations and broad-line region kinematics of NGC 5548

Sixteen spectroscopic observations of the Seyfert galaxy NGC 5548 were made between March 1979 and June 1984 at Palomar and Steward Observatories. Broad-line flux variations correlated with nonstellar continuum changes were measured. H-beta, H-gamma, and He II 4686A all respond rapidly to continuum variations providing strong evidence for photoionization by a central continuum source. Additionally, H-beta profile variations have occurred during the 1900 day monitoring period. These profile variations also correlate with changes in the continuum, but lag behind by about 90 days or less. A kinematic model that incorporates radial outflow and an internal line opacity source is proposed to explain qualitatively the observed H-beta profile variations.

Rosenblatt, Edward I.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Response of nightside ionosphere and ionotail of Venus to variations in solar EUV and solar wind dynamic pressure

Pioneer Venus in situ measurements of N(e), total solar EUV flux, and solar wind dynamic pressure P(sw) are used to investigate the solar cycle and orbit-to-orbit variations of the Venus nightside ionosphere. It is found that the density of the main body of the nightside ionosphere below 600 km responds to the solar wind dynamic pressure variations in much the same way that the density of the ionotail does: both regions are depleted at times of high P(sw). Solar cycle variations in the EUV flux near solar minimum produce very large changes in the electron density in ionotail, changes that are consistent with the ionotail being supplied by nightward ion flow. However, short-term variations in the EUV flux produce a weak negative response in the density at altitudes between 150 and 600 km, at least at solar maximum. The nightside variations are consistent with enhanced solar wind scavenging of plasma from the nightside ionosphere during periods of higher P(sw).

Brace, L. H.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Numerical simulations of the seasonal/latitudinal variations of atomic oxygen and nitric oxide in the lower thermosphere and mesosphere

A 2-Dimensional zonally-averaged thermospheric model and the global University College London (UCL) thermospheric model have been used to investigate the seasonal, solar activity and geomagnetic variation of atomic oxygen and nitric oxide. The 2-dimensional model includes detailed oxygen and nitrogen chemistry, with appropriate completion of the energy equation, by adding the thermal infrared cooling by O and NO. This solution includes solar and auroral production of odd nitrogen compounds and metastable species. This model has been used for three investigations; firstly, to study the interactions between atmospheric dynamics and minor species transport and density; secondly, to examine the seasonal variations of atomic oxygen and nitric oxide within the upper mesosphere and thermosphere and their response to solar and geomagnetic activity variations; thirdly, to study the factor of 7 to 8 peak nitric oxide density increase as solar F sub 10.7 cm flux increases from 70 to 240 reported from the Solar Mesospheric Explorer. Auroral production of NO is shown to be the dominant source at high latitudes, generating peak NO densities a factor of 10 greater than typical number densities at low latitudes. At low latitudes, the predicted variation of the peak NO density, near 110 km, with the solar F sub 10.7 cm flux is rather smaller than is observed. This is most likely due to an overestimate of the soft X-ray flux at low solar activity, for times of extremely low support number, as occurred in June 1986. As observed on pressure levels, the variation of O density is small. The global circulation during solstice and periods of elevated geomagnetic activity causes depletion of O in regions of upwelling, and enhancements in regions of downwelling.

Rees, D.↗