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At least 127 records · Page 7

Analysis of architectures for the scientific exploration of Enceladus

In 2007, a JPL Rapid Mission Architecture (RMA) analysis team identified and evaluated a broad set of mission architecture options for a suite of scientific exploration objectives targeting the Saturnian moon Enceladus. Primary science objectives were largely focused on examination of the driving mechanisms and extent of interactions by the plumes of Enceladus recently discovered by Cassini. Investigation of the architectural trade space spanned a wide range of options, from high-energy flybys of Enceladus as a re-instrumented expansion on the Cassini mission, to more complex, multi-element combinations of Enceladus orbiters carrying multiple variants of in-situ deployable systems. Trajectory design emerged as a critical element of the mission concepts, enabling challenging missions on Atlas V and Delta IV-Heavy class launch vehicles. Various Enceladus Flagship-class mission concepts identified were analyzed and compared against several first-order figures of merit, including mass, cost, risk, mission timeline, and associated science value with respect to accomplishment of the full set of science objectives. Results are presented for these comparative analyses and the characterization of the explored trade space.

Strange, N.↗

Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Concurrent, Conceptual Design of Space Missions

NASA is expanding its capability to perform PRA. This capability gives insight into the links of a suggested design and drives the refinement of the design by identifying optimal areas for investments. Clearly, it is more viable and less expensive to refine a design at the time that it is being conceived. Hence the utility of conducting PRA at the conceptual design phase. Concurrent engineering teams greatly reduce the design time and costs. However, there is currently no standardized means for building probabilistic risk models to assess risks associated with a design produced by such teams. The capability to produce a consistent and valid risk metric associated with such designs would greatly enhance the value of such design teams. This paper explains the experimental results obtained to date from building probabilistic risk models for sample studies conducted at the concurrent engineering design team at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (TeamX).

conceptual designs↗

Radiation protection issues in galactic cosmic ray risk assessment

Radiation protection involves the limitation of exposure to below threshold doses for direct (or deterministic) effects and a knowledge of the risk of stochastic effects after low doses. The principal stochastic risk associated with low dose rate galactic cosmic rays is the increased risk of cancer. Estimates of this risk depend on two factors (a) estimates of cancer risk for low-LET radiation and (b) values of the appropriate radiation weighting factors, WR, for the high-LET radiations of galactic cosmic rays. Both factors are subject to considerable uncertainty. The low-LET cancer risk derived from the late effects of the atomic bombs is vulnerable to a number of uncertainties including especially that from projection in time, and from extrapolation from high to low dose rate. Nevertheless, recent low dose studies of workers and others tend to confirm these estimates. WR, relies on biological effects studied mainly in non-human systems. Additional laboratory studies could reduce the uncertainties in WR and thus produce a more confident estimate of the overall risk of galactic cosmic rays.

NASA Program Radiation Health↗

Extravehicular Activity on the Lunar Surface: Mapping Mitigation Risk Consequence for Crew Needing Assistance or Rescue

Extravehicular activity (EVA) on the lunar surface presents unique risks to crew with possibility for injury. Without appropriate assistance or rescue capability, inability to nominally ambulate and return to a lander, especially during early Artemis missions, could have catastrophic consequences. Mapping likelihood and consequence safety risk associated with identified injury scenarios establishes a baseline from which to assess potential mitigation solutions to ensure crew health and safety. Causes leading to the need for incapacitated crew rescue (ICR) during EVA on the lunar surface were previously identified and classified using an ICR/Acute Injury scenario spectrum. Severe scenarios are those when the affected astronaut requires either partial or full continuous assistance from the rescuer. Evaluation of these continual reliance conditions included calculating event probabilities (likelihoods) associated with an early Artemis mission and mapping them to established Exploration System Directorate (ESD) probability thresholds; safety consequences were analyzed and correlated to defined ESD personnel safety categories. These resulting likelihood and consequence values served as a baseline for assessing risk reduction of three mitigation capabilities: crew assistance (rescuer crew) only, walking assist devices, and a wheeled transport device. Of the twenty-five continual reliance conditions, ten were evaluated as “catastrophic” (Level 5, loss of life) during EVA on the lunar surface with probabilities ranging from moderate to very low during an early Artemis mission. Crew assistance only and walking assist devices showed similar potential for risk reduction, with four of the ten causes decreasing to Level 4. A wheeled transport device further increased risk reduction with six of the ten conditions decreasing to Level 4. Given the catastrophic consequence of several identified conditions, assessments should be performed to determine the feasibility of mitigation capabilities. It is currently unknown whether a rescuer astronaut could effectively provide continuous assistance to enable both crew to return safely to the lander from the standpoint of both suit geometry and human performance. Although resulting in an increase in resources, providing a wheeled transport provides the highest risk reduction potential, and walking assist devices may have prevention as well as mitigation benefits.

lunar surface↗

Risk assessment of metal vapor arcing

A method for assessing metal vapor arcing risk for a component is provided. The method comprises acquiring a current variable value associated with an operation of the component; comparing the current variable value with a threshold value for the variable; evaluating compared variable data to determine the metal vapor arcing risk in the component; and generating a risk assessment status for the component.

Hill, Monika C.↗

A Tuned Single Parameter for Representing Conjunction Risk

Satellite conjunction assessment risk analysis is a subjective enterprise that can benefit from quantitative aids and, to this end, NASA/GSFC has developed a fuzzy logic construct - called the F-value - to attempt to provide a statement of conjunction risk that amalgamates multiple indices and yields a more stable intra-event assessment. This construct has now sustained an extended tuning procedure against heuristic analyst assessment of event risk. The tuning effort has resulted in modifications to the calculation procedure and the adjustment of tuning coefficients, producing a construct with both more predictive force and a better statement of its error.

Plakaloic, D.↗

Un-Numbered Operational Areas PRL 229 Railroad Tie Disposal Area Pond Confirmation Sampling Report

This Confirmatory Sampling (CS) Report (CSR) was prepared for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Kennedy Space Center (KSC), Florida in accordance with the CS Work Plan (CSWP) (HGL, 2022a). The CSR summarizes investigation activities performed on the Railroad Tie Disposal Area (RTDA) of the Un-Numbered Operational Areas (UNOA), Potential Release Location (PRL) 229 located at KSC. HydroGeoLogic, Inc. (HGL) prepared this report under Contract Number 80KSC019D0012. The purpose of the CSR is to provide information to evaluate the level of potential contamination in surface water and sediment samples collected from the RTDA PRL 229 Pond and determine if contaminants pose unacceptable risks to ecological receptors. The CSR provides analytical data of 10 sets of surface water and sediment samples collected in 2021. Surface water samples were analyzed for volatile organic compounds (VOCs), semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOCs), polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbon (PAHs), metals, hardness, and salinity, while sediment samples were analyzed for metals, total organic carbon (TOC), SVOCs, PAHs, and total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPH). The CSR includes a Screening Level Ecological Risk Assessment (SLERA) conducted under KSC’s Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) Corrective Action Program to determine if unacceptable risks to ecological receptors exist at PRL 229 Pond. Metals and PAHs were detected in surface water samples, including detections of antimony, arsenic, barium, calcium, copper, lead, magnesium, thallium, zinc, anthracene, benzo(a)anthracene, benzo(a)pyrene, benzo(b)fluoranthene, benzo(g,h,i)perylene, benzo(k)fluoranthene, chrysene, dibenzo(a,h)anthracene, fluoranthene, indeno(1,2,3-c,d)pyrene and pyrene. Based on measured salinity (1.03 to 1.21 parts per thousand), the pond was identified as freshwater. Sediment analytical results also contained detections of metals and PAHs, including antimony, arsenic, barium, beryllium, cadmium, chromium, copper, lead, mercury, nickel, selenium, thallium, zinc, anthracene benzo(a)anthracene, benzo(a)pyrene, benzo(b)fluoranthene, benzo(g,h,i)perylene, benzo(k)fluoranthene, chrysene, dibenzo(a,h)anthracene, fluoranthene, indeno(1,2,3-c,d)pyrene and pyrene. Potential risks to ecological receptors were evaluated in accordance with the SLERA Work Plan and the Decision Process Document for the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) Corrective Action Program at KSC (DPD) (Geosyntec, 2019), and using the 2021 sediment and surface water analytical results. Potential ecological receptors evaluated in the SLERA include the aquatic community, benthic invertebrates, aquatic birds, and aquatic mammals. The SLERA included Steps 2a through 2c of the Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) process in accordance with the DPD. Using multiple lines of evidence, the SLERA concluded that many of the detected analytes are present at concentrations similar to those in background or reference locations at KSC, and/or at concentrations that would not pose a significant risk to ecological communities. There are no screening values available for the avian community, and PAHs are bioaccumulative compounds. For this reason, food web modeling was completed as a supplement to Step 2c to provide a quantitative evaluation of this exposure pathway. Food web modeling indicates that PAHs are unlikely to pose a risk to birds exposed to site sediment and surface water. Based on the results of the SLERA, the contaminants in sediment and surface water pose no to minimal risk to the ecological communities that could live or forage at the site. Based on the results of the SLERA, no further study is recommended for the RTDA Pond at PRL 229.

Confirmation Sampling↗

Numerical Characterization of Astronaut CaOx Renal Stone Incidence Rates to Quantify In-flight and Post-flight Relative Risk

Changes in urine chemistry potentially alter the risk of renal stone formation in astronauts. Quantifying spaceflight renal stone incidence risk compared to pre-flight levels remains a significant challenge for assessing the appropriate vehicle, mission, and countermeasure design. A computational biochemistry model representing CaOx crystal precipitation, growth, and agglomeration is combined with a probabilistic analysis to predict the in- and post-flight CaOx renal stone incidence risk ratio (IRR) relative to pre-flight values using 1517 astronaut 24-hour urine chemistries. Our simulations predict that in-flight fluid intake alone would need to increase from current prescriptions of 2.0 - 2.5 L/day to approximately 3.2 L/day to approach CaOx IRR of the pre-flight population. Bone protective interventions would reduce CaOx risk to pre-flight levels if Ca excretion alone is reduced to < 150 mg/day or if current levels are diminished to 190mg/day in combination with increasing fluid intake to 2.5 - 2.7 L/day. This analysis provides a quantitative risk assessment that can influence the critical balance between engineering and astronaut health requirements.

renal stones↗

Human Transportation System (HTS) study, volume 2

This report summarizes work completed under the Human Transportation System Study. This study was conducted by the New Initiatives Office at JSC with the technical support of Boeing, General Dynamics, Lockheed, McDonnell-Douglas, Martin Marietta, and Rockwell. The study was designed to generate information on determining the appropriate path to follow for new system development to meet the Nation's space transportation needs. The study evaluates 18 transportation architecture options using a parametric set of mission requirements. These options include use of current systems (e.g., Shuttle, Titan, etc. ) as well as proposed systems (e.g., PLS, Single-Stage-to-Orbit, etc.) to assess the impact of various considerations, such as the cost of alternate access, or the benefit of separating people and cargo. The architecture options are compared to each other with six measurable evaluation criteria or attributes. They are: funding profile, human safety, probability of mission success, architecture cost risk, launch schedule confidence, and environmental impact. Values for these attributes are presented for the architecture options, with pertinent conclusions and recommendations.

Unmanned spacecraft↗

Human Transportation System (HTS) study: Executive summary

This report summarizes work completed under the Human Transportation System Study. This study was conducted by the New Initiatives Office at JSC with the technical support of Boeing, General Dynamics, Lockheed, McDonnell-Douglas, Martin Marietta, and Rockwell. The study was designed to generate information on determining the appropriate path to follow for new system development to meet the Nation's space transportation needs. The study evaluates 18 transportation architecture options using a parametric set of mission requirements. These options include use of current systems (e.g., Shuttle, Titan, etc.) as well as proposed systems (e.g., PLS, Single-Stage-to-Orbit, etc.) to assess the impact of various considerations, such as the cost of alternate access, or the benefit of separating people and cargo. The architecture options are compared to each other with six measurable evaluation criteria or attributes. They are: funding profile, human safety, probability of mission success, architecture cost risk, launch schedule confidence, and environmental impact. Values for these attributes are presented for the architecture options, with pertinent conclusions and recommendations.

Unmanned spacecraft↗

Human Transportation System (HTS) study, volume 1

This report summarizes work completed under the Human Transportation System Study. This study was conducted by the New Initiatives Office at JSC with the technical support of Boeing, General Dynamics, Lockheed, McDonnell-Douglas, Martin Marietta, and Rockwell. The study was designed to generate information on determining the appropriate path to follow for new system development to meet the Nation's space transportation needs. The study evaluates 18 transportation architecture options using a parametric set of mission requirements. These options include use of current systems (e.g., Shuttle, Titan, etc.) as well as proposed systems (e.g., PLS, Single-Stage-to-Orbit, etc.) to assess the impact of various considerations, such as the cost of alternate access, or the benefit of separating people and cargo. The architecture options are compared to each other with six measurable evaluation criteria or attributes. They are: funding profile, human safety, probability of mission success, architecture cost risk, launch schedule confidence, and environmental impact. Values for these attributes are presented for the architecture options, with pertinent conclusions and recommendations.

Unmanned spacecraft↗

Panel to review EOSDIS plans

Formed in Jan. 1992, the Panel to Review EOSDIS Plans was charged with advising NASA on its plans for developing the Earth Observing System (EOS) Data and Information System (EOSDIS). Specifically, the panel was asked to do the following: assess the validity of the engineering and technical underpinnings of the EOSDIS; assess its potential value to scientific users; suggest how technical risk can be minimized; and assess whether current plans are sufficiently resilient to be adaptable to changing technology and requirements such as budget environments, data volumes, new users, and new databases. The panel completed an interim report (Addendum A) and transmitted it to NASA and other interested parties in the government on 9 Apr. 1992. Because of a delay in NASA's plans to select the contractor for EOSDIS, the panel was not able to complete its review of the program according to the original government request. With the issuance of a letter report (Addendum B) on 28 Sep. 1992, the panel became inactive until such time as NASA could release the details of the contractor's proposed architecture, schedule, and costs for developing EOSDIS. In early 1993, NASA awarded the contract for the EOSDIS Core System (ECS). On 20 Apr. 1993, NASA asked the panel to reconvene to do the following: ( 1) complete its review of NASA's approach to the EOSDIS architecture and implementation; (2) appraise NASA's responses to the panel's previous recommendations; and (3) review the planning for EOSDIS in the context of NASA's role in the Global Change Data and Information System (GCDIS) implementation plan. To respond to the NASA charge, the panel met three times in 1993 including sessions with NASA officials and the EOSDIS contractor. In addition, several of the panel members visited individual Distributed Active Archive Centers (DAAC's) to obtain additional views of EOSDIS. The panel has now obtained substantial information on the EOSDIS budget, contractor work program, and current baseline architecture that was not previously available, due to procurement restrictions. This report presents the panel's findings and recommendations based on this additional information.

Source record↗

Stochastic decision analysis

Small space flight project design at NASA Langley Research Center goes through a multi-phase process from preliminary analysis to flight operations. The process insures that each system achieves its technical objectives with demonstrated quality and within planned budgets and schedules. A key technical component of early phases is decision analysis, which is a structure procedure for determining the best of a number of feasible concepts based upon project objectives. Feasible system concepts are generated by the designers and analyzed for schedule, cost, risk, and technical measures. Each performance measure value is normalized between the best and worst values and a weighted average score of all measures is calculated for each concept. The concept(s) with the highest scores are retained, while others are eliminated from further analysis. This project automated and enhanced the decision analysis process. Automation of the decision analysis process was done by creating a user-friendly, menu-driven, spreadsheet macro based decision analysis software program. The program contains data entry dialog boxes, automated data and output report generation, and automated output chart generation. The enhancements to the decision analysis process permit stochastic data entry and analysis. Rather than enter single measure values, the designers enter the range and most likely value for each measure and concept. The data can be entered at the system or subsystem level. System level data can be calculated as either sum, maximum, or product functions of the subsystem data. For each concept, the probability distributions are approximated for each measure and the total score for each concept as either constant, triangular, normal, or log-normal distributions. Based on these distributions, formulas are derived for the probability that the concept meets any given constraint, the probability that the concept meets all constraints, and the probability that the concept is within a given amount of the best score. Formulas are also derived for the probability that one concept's total score is within a given amount of a second concept's total score. These probabilistic calculations provide more realistic data entry and output information for designers, enabling designers to better determine which concepts to eliminate and which concepts to retain at the decision points of each design phase.

Lacksonen, Thomas A.↗

Flight Evaluation of the Army/NASA Variable Stability Fly-by-Wire Rotorcraft Aircrew Systems Concept Airborne Laboratory (RASCAL) JUH-60A

NASA Ames Research Center and the U.S. Army Aeroflight dynamics Directorate (AFDD) have performed initial flight evaluations of the Research Flight Control System (RFCS) integrated into the Army/NASA Rotorcraft Aircrew Systems Concepts Airborne Laboratory (RASCAL) JUH-GOA. The highly modified JUH-GOA Black Hawk helicopter is a full authority, high bandwidth, variable stability, in-flight simulator designed to support development of advanced flight control, sensor, and integrated display and control technologies in a fail safe environment. Preparation for flight test required an extensive hazard analysis and ground testing to ensure proper system operation. A hardware in the loop development facility was utilized to evaluate control law stability following software changes, assess servo hardover upset conditions during manual and monitor disengagements and provide pilot familiarization of test techniques and software changes prior to flight. First engagement of the RFCS was conducted on 31 Aug 2001. RFCS transfer system operation, envelope expansion and a limited rate monitor evaluation have been completed with low bandwidth and model following control laws. The presentation will discuss the following - System overview including aircraft modifications and integrated development facilities used with the RASCAL facility. - Preliminary hazard identification and mitigation prior to flight test. - Ground testing used to qualify the RFCS transfer system and verify fault monitor operation. - Flight test results of low-bandwidth and model following control law evaluations including maneuver agility, control limitations, fault monitor reliability, and recovery from manual and monitor disengagement. - Lessons learned including test techniques using a passive three-axis sidearm controller, the value of the development facility in reducing risk and crew coordination issues related to the operation of a full authority, variable stability platform. - Future research and modifications planned for the RASCAL aircraft.

Dave Arterburn↗

A Biodosimeter for Multiparametric Determination of Radiation Dose, Radiation Quality, and Radiation Risk

Predicting risk of human cancer following exposure of an individual or a population to ionizing radiation is challenging. To an approximation, this is because uncertainties of uniform absorption of dose and the uniform processing of dose-related damage at the cellular level within a complex set of biological variables degrade the confidence of predicting the delayed expression of cancer as a relatively rare event. Cellular biodosimeters that simultaneously report: 1) the quantity of absorbed dose after exposure to ionizing radiation, 2) the quality of radiation delivering that dose, and 3) the risk of developing cancer by the cells absorbing that dose would therefore be useful. An approach to such a multiparametric biodosimeter will be reported. This is the demonstration of a dose responsive field effect of enhanced expression of keratin 18 (K18) in cultures of human mammary epithelial cells irradiated with cesium-1 37 gamma-rays. Dose response of enhanced K18 expression was experimentally extended over a range of 30 to 90 cGy for cells evaluated at mid-log phase. K18 has been reported to be a marker for tumor staging and for apoptosis, and thereby serves as an example of a potential marker for cancer risk, where the reality of such predictive value would require additional experimental development. Since observed radiogenic increase in expression of K18 is a field effect, ie., chronically present in all cells of the irradiated population, it may be hypothesized that K18 expression in specific cells absorbing particulate irradiation, such as the high-LET-producing atomic nuclei of space radiation, will report on both the single-cell distributions of those particles amongst cells within the exposed population, and that the relatively high dose per cell delivered by densely ionizing tracks of those intersecting particles will lead to cell-specific high-expression levels of K18, thereby providing analytical end points that may be used to resolve both the quantity and the quality of the radiation dose absorbed by individual cells. The principal value of this reported potential multiparametric cellular biodosimeter is suggested to be that it justifies a search for similar but more robust radiogenic assays. That is, K18 is only one radiation dose-sensitive expressed protein, whereas analytical techniques of genomics and proteomics can be used to simultaneously analyze multiple gene and protein expressions resulting from radiation-dose absorption. The potential usefulness of multiparametric cellular biodosimeters will be best realized from quantitatively profiling these multiple markers using these modern techniques.

Richmond, Robert↗

Medical Optimization Network for Space Telemedicine Resources

INTRODUCTION: Long-duration missions beyond low Earth orbit introduce new constraints to the space medical system such as the inability to evacuate to Earth, communication delays, and limitations in clinical skillsets. NASA recognizes the need to improve capabilities for autonomous care on such missions. As the medical system is developed, it is important to have an ability to evaluate the trade space of what resources will be most important. The Medical Optimization Network for Space Telemedicine Resources was developed for this reason, and is now a system to gauge the relative importance of medical resources in addressing medical conditions. METHODS: A list of medical conditions of potential concern for an exploration mission was referenced from the Integrated Medical Model, a probabilistic model designed to quantify in-flight medical risk. The diagnostic and treatment modalities required to address best and worst-case scenarios of each medical condition, at the terrestrial standard of care, were entered into a database. This list included tangible assets (e.g. medications) and intangible assets (e.g. clinical skills to perform a procedure). A team of physicians working within the Exploration Medical Capability Element of NASA's Human Research Program ranked each of the items listed according to its criticality. Data was then obtained from the IMM for the probability of occurrence of the medical conditions, including a breakdown of best case and worst case, during a Mars reference mission. The probability of occurrence information and criticality for each resource were taken into account during analytics performed using Tableau software. RESULTS: A database and weighting system to evaluate all the diagnostic and treatment modalities was created by combining the probability of condition occurrence data with the criticalities assigned by the physician team. DISCUSSION: Exploration Medical Capabilities research at NASA is focused on providing a medical system to support crew medical needs in the context of a Mars mission. MONSTR is a novel approach to performing a quantitative risk analysis that will assess the relative value of individual resources needed for the diagnosis and treatment of various medical conditions. It will provide the operational and research communities at NASA with information to support informed decisions regarding areas of research investment, future crew training, and medical supplies manifested as part of the exploration medical system.

Shah, R. V.↗

S-band Fence Study Phase 1: Estimating the Increased Level of Screening Volume Incursions

Motivation: CARA assesses collision risk for a set of high-value satellites. Deploying the S-band Fence (SBF) radar system will significantly increase the number of conjunctions to process, possibly overloading the current CARA system.Phase 1 study objective: Estimate changes in screening volume incursion rates caused by the SBF deploymentPhase 2 study objective: Estimate associated changes in serious conjunction rates (e.g., Pc > 10-4) Phase 3 study objective: Develop methods for filtering and prioritizing the increased tasking, as requiredAll to be discussed today are Phase I results

conjunction assessment operations↗

NASA-NOAA Feasibility Report

The western stock of Steller sea lions and the Aleutian stock of harbor seals both experienced dramatic declines in abundance during the past few decades, particularly in the central and western Aleutian Islands. Both stocks have continued to decline in recent years, thus are a high priority for routine monitoring. NOAA’s Marine Mammal laboratory (MML) has conducted aerial surveys of marine mammals throughout coastal Alaska to monitor trends in population abundance and distribution for more than 20 years. These surveys have typically been conducted from a twinengine aircraft, such as a DHC-6 Twin Otter, operated by NOAA pilots and crewmembers. Aerial surveys in the Aleutian Islands present significant challenges and higher risks due to their remoteness, rugged terrain, and extreme weather. To evaluate the feasibility of transitioning from manned to unmanned aerial surveys in this region, thereby reducing risks to NOAA personnel and high-value aircraft, we propose to conduct test survey flights in the Near Islands of Alaska using a medium-sized, fixed-wing UAV (NASA’s SIERRA-B aircraft) with a nadir-aimed imaging payload. Survey flights are planned to be conducted during daylight hours on days with VFR conditions and less than ~20 knot winds at altitudes of 800-1200 feet. Survey imagery, including thermal video and high-resolution color photos, would be collected at known Steller sea lion and harbor seal sites along the coastlines of Shemya, Nizki, Alaid, Agattu, and Attu Islands. The planning team will request approval and support from the US Air Force to conduct this project at Eareckson Air Station (Shemya Island, AK) during the month of September 2022 when weather conditions in the western Aleutian Islands are expected to be optimal.

NOAA↗