Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Value at Risk”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1989

A get started approach for resource processing

A low-risk, high-value approach to implementing resource processing is presented. The design utilizes processing plants at Deimos and Mars, a fueling depot in a Mars parking orbit, and small shuttles transferring crew and cargo between sites. The system fuels Mars ascent and descent states and the earth-return stage. Fueling at Mars reduces launch requirements by 25 percent, or, alternatively, enables the substitution of payload for fuel on a near 1:1 basis and thereby triples the payload delivered to Mars.

Giudici, Bob↗
NASA NTRS2005

A Systems Study to Determine the Attractiveness of Solar System Bodies and Sites for Eventual Human Exploration

A pre-phase A idea-generation team at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), has conducted a study to rank all locations in the solar system based on attractiveness for human exploration. The process used to perform the study was composed of the following primary steps: determination of criteria (including value, cost, and risk criteria) upon which to rate sites in the solar system; weighting of the criteria based upon importance to eventual human exploration; selection of sites to consider and assignment of team members to the task of advocating the benefits of particular sites; rating the sites in both the short- and longterm based on team member presentations and team discussions; compilation of a score based on criteria weights and individual ratings. Finally a comparison of the total scores of different sites was completed to determine a ranking of all the bodies and sites in the solar system. Sensitivity analysis was also performed to determine how weightings affect the rankings.

human exploration↗
NASA NTRS2010

Assessing the Fire Risk for a Historic Hangar

NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) is evaluating options of reuse of its historic Hangar 1. As a part of this evaluation, a qualitative fire risk assessment study was performed to evaluate the potential threat of combustion of the historic hangar. The study focused on the fire risk trade-off of either installing or not installing a Special Hazard Fire Suppression System in the Hangar 1 deck areas. The assessment methodology was useful in discussing the important issues among various groups within the Center. Once the methodology was deemed acceptable, the results were assessed. The results showed that the risk remained in the same risk category, whether Hangar 1 does or does not have a Special Hazard Fire Suppression System. Note that the methodology assessed the risk to Hangar 1 and not the risk to an aircraft in the hangar. If one had a high value aircraft, the aircraft risk analysis could potentially show a different result. The assessed risk results were then communicated to management and other stakeholders.

Datta, Koushik↗
NASA NTRS2013

Sustaining a Mature Risk Management Process: Ensuring the International Space Station for a Vibrant Future

The International Space Station (ISS) risk management methodology is an example of a mature and sustainable process. Risk management is a systematic approach used to proactively identify, analyze, plan, track, control, communicate, and document risks to help management make risk-informed decisions that increase the likelihood of achieving program objectives. The ISS has been operating in space for over 14 years and permanently crewed for over 12 years. It is the longest surviving habitable vehicle in low Earth orbit history. Without a mature and proven risk management plan, it would be increasingly difficult to achieve mission success throughout the life of the ISS Program. A successful risk management process must be able to adapt to a dynamic program. As ISS program-level decision processes have evolved, so too has the ISS risk management process continued to innovate, improve, and adapt. Constant adaptation of risk management tools and an ever-improving process is essential to the continued success of the ISS Program. Above all, sustained support from program management is vital to risk management continued effectiveness. Risk management is valued and stressed as an important process by the ISS Program.

Raftery, Michael↗
NASA NTRS1998

Cost and Economics for Advanced Launch Vehicles

Market sensitivity and weight-based cost estimating relationships are key drivers in determining the financial viability of advanced space launch vehicle designs. Due to decreasing space transportation budgets and increasing foreign competition, it has become essential for financial assessments of prospective launch vehicles to be performed during the conceptual design phase. As part of this financial assessment, it is imperative to understand the relationship between market volatility, the uncertainty of weight estimates, and the economic viability of an advanced space launch vehicle program. This paper reports the results of a study that evaluated the economic risk inherent in market variability and the uncertainty of developing weight estimates for an advanced space launch vehicle program. The purpose of this study was to determine the sensitivity of a business case for advanced space flight design with respect to the changing nature of market conditions and the complexity of determining accurate weight estimations during the conceptual design phase. The expected uncertainty associated with these two factors drives the economic risk of the overall program. The study incorporates Monte Carlo simulation techniques to determine the probability of attaining specific levels of economic performance when the market and weight parameters are allowed to vary. This structured approach toward uncertainties allows for the assessment of risks associated with a launch vehicle program's economic performance. This results in the determination of the value of the additional risk placed on the project by these two factors.

Whitfield, Jeff↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Risk Assessment Information System Compendium of Ecological Screening Benchmarks for Chemicals and Radionuclides (2025) (Volume I – Text, Radionuclides for all Media, Chemicals for Air and Biota)

The Risk Assessment Information System Ecological Benchmark Tool compiles screening level benchmark values for assessing potential ecological risks posed by chemical and radionuclide contaminants. Drawing from a wide array of federal, state, and international sources, it consolidates benchmarks across environmental media, including soil, water, sediment, air, and biota, and presents values for a broad range of receptors and exposure pathways. The tool includes both effect-based and no-effect thresholds, with media- and organism-specific guidance derived from peer-reviewed literature and regulatory frameworks. By integrating diverse benchmark types into a unified reference, the tool supports consistent, scientifically grounded evaluations in ecological risk assessments and environmental management practices.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2021

Leveraging NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive for Assessing Fire Susceptibility and Potential Impacts over Australia and California

Wildfires are a major concern around the globe because of the immediate impact they have on people's lives, local ecosystems, and the environment. Soil moisture is one of the most important factors that influences wildfire occurrences and spread. However, it is also one of the most challenging hydrological variables to measure routinely and accurately. Therefore, soil moisture is significantly underutilized in operational wildfire risk applications. Thus, the aim here is to use a well-established operational soil moisture product to isolate the soil moisture-fire relationship and assess the utility of using soil moisture as a leading indicator of potential fire risk. We evaluated the value of remotely-sensed soil moisture observations from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) sensor for monitoring and predicting fire risk in Australia and California. We quantified the relationship between observed fire activity and soil moisture conditions and analyzed the soil moisture conditions for two extreme fire events. Our findings show that fire activity is strongly associated with soil moisture anomalies. Lagged correlation analysis demonstrated that a remote-sensing based soil moisture product could predict fire activity with a 1-2 month lead-time. Soil moisture anomalies consistently decreased in the months preceding fire occurrence, often from normal to drier conditions, according to a spatiotemporal analysis of soil moisture in two extreme fire events. Overall, our findings indicate that soil moisture conditions prior to large wildfires can aid in their prediction and operational satellite-based soil moisture products such as the one used here have real value for supporting wildfire susceptibility and impacts.

Nazmus Sazib↗
NASA NTRS1994

HYPERSAMP

Hypergeometric Attribute Sampling System Based on Risk and Fraction Defective (HYPERSAMP) computer program demonstrates attribute sampling system developed to determine minimum sample size required for any preselected value for consumer's risk and fraction of nonconforming units. Used in place of MIL-STD-105E sampling plans when minimum sample size desirable, such as when tests are destructive or expensive. Written for IBM PC-compatible computers.

Desalvo, Louis J.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Peak Pc Prediction in Conjunction Analysis: Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis

Satellite conjunction risk typically evaluated through the probability of collision (Pc). Considers both conjunction geometry and uncertainties in both state estimates. Conjunction events initially discovered through Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) screenings, usually seven days before Time of Closest Approach (TCA). However, JSpOC continues to track objects and issue conjunction updates. Changes in state estimate and reduced propagation time cause Pc to change as event develops. These changes a combination of potentially predictable development and unpredictable changes in state estimate covariance. Operationally useful datum: the peak Pc. If it can reasonably be inferred that the peak Pc value has passed, then risk assessment can be conducted against this peak value. If this value is below remediation level, then event intensity can be relaxed. Can the peak Pc location be reasonably predicted?

Operations↗
DOE OSTI2023

High levels of exfoliated fragments following glycocalyx destruction in hemorrhagic fever with the renal syndrome are associated with mortality risk

Background The glycocalyx is a gel-like structure that covers the luminal side of vascular endothelial cells. It plays an important role in maintaining the integrity of the vascular endothelial barrier structure. However, the presence or absence of glycocalyx destruction in hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) and its specific mechanism and role is still unclear. Methods In this study, we detected the levels of exfoliated glycocalyx fragments, namely, heparan sulfate (HS), hyaluronic acid (HA), and chondroitin sulfate (CS), in HFRS patients and investigated their clinical application value on the evaluation of disease severity and prognosis prediction. Results The expression of exfoliated glycocalyx fragments in plasma was significantly increased during the acute stage of HFRS. The levels of HS, HA, and CS in HFRS patients during the acute stage were significantly higher than in healthy controls and convalescent stages of the same type. HS and CS during the acute stage gradually increased with the aggravation of HFRS, and both fragments showed a significant association with disease severity. In addition, exfoliated glycocalyx fragments (especially HS and CS) showed a significant correlation with conventional laboratory parameters and hospitalization days. High levels of HS and CS during the acute phase were significantly associated with patient mortality and demonstrated an obvious predictive value for the mortality risk of HFRS. Conclusion Glycocalyx destruction and shedding may be closely associated with endothelial hyperpermeability and microvascular leakage in HFRS. The dynamic detection of the exfoliated glycocalyx fragments may be beneficial for the evaluation of disease severity and prognosis prediction in HFRS.

Du, Hong↗
NASA NTRS2019

On Expected Value Strong Controllability

The Probabilistic Simple Temporal Network (PSTN) generalizes Simple Temporal Networks with Uncertainty (STNUs) by introducing probability distributions over the timing of uncontrollable timepoints. PSTNs are controllable if there is a strategy to execute the controllable timepoints while bounding the risk of violating any constraint to a small value. If this risk bound can't be satisfied, PSTNs are not considered controllable. We introduce the Expected Value Probabilistic SimpleTemporal Network (EPSTN), which extends PSTNs by including a benefit to the satisfaction of temporal constraints. We study the problem of Expected Value Strong Controllability (EvSC) of EPSTNs, which seeks a schedule maximizing the expected value of satisfied constraints. We solve the EvSC problem by extending a previously developed linear program, combined with search over constraints to violate at execution time. We describe conditions under which the solution to this linear program is the maximum expected value schedule. We then show how to search for constraints to discard, using the linear program at the core of the search. While the general problem is shown to be exponential, we conclude by providing several methods to bound the complexity of search.

Planning↗
DOE OSTI2022

Identification of Intraday False Data Injection Attack on DER Dispatch Signals

The urgent need for the decarbonization of power grids has accelerated the integration of renewable energy. Concurrently, increasing distributed energy resources (DER) and advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) have transformed the power grids into a more sophisticated cyber-physical system with numerous communication devices. While these transitions provide economic and environmental value, they also impose increased risk of cyber attacks and operation al challenges. This paper investigates the vulnerabilit y of the power grids with high renewable penetration against an intraday false data injection (FDI) attack on DER dispatch signals and proposes a kernel support vector regression (SVR) based detection model as a countermeasure. The intraday FDI attack scenario and the detection model are demonstrated in a numerical experiment using the HCE 187-bus test system.

Kim, Jip↗
NASA NTRS1992

Health-risk based approach to setting drinking water standards for long-term space missions

In order to develop plausible and appropriate drinking water contaminant standards for longer-term NASA space missions, such as those planned for the Space Exploration Initiative, a human health risk characterization was performed using toxicological and exposure values typical of space operations and crew. This risk characterization showed that the greatest acute waterborne health concern was from microbial infection leading to incapacitating gastrointestinal illness. Ingestion exposure pathways for toxic materials yielded de minimus acute health risks unlikely to affect SEI space missions. Risks of chronic health problems were within acceptable public health limits. Our analysis indicates that current Space Station Freedom maximum contamination levels may be unnecessarily strict. We propose alternative environmental contaminant values consistent with both acceptable short and long-term crew health safety.

Macler, Bruce A.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Assessing Disparities of Dengue Virus Transmission Risk across the US-Mexican Border Using a Climate Driven Vector-Epidemiological Model

Dengue fever is a mosquito‐borne viral disease reemerging throughout much of the tropical Americas. Dengue virus transmission is explicitly influenced by climate and the environment through its primary vector, Aedes aegypti. Temperature regulates Ae. aegypti development, survival, and replication rates as well as the incubation period of the virus within the mosquito. Precipitation provides water for many of the preferred breeding habitats of the mosquito, including buckets, old tires, and other places water can collect. Although transmission regularly occurs along the border region in Mexico, dengue virus transmission in bordering Arizona has not occurred. Using NASA's TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite for precipitation input and Daymet for temperature and supplemental precipitation input, we modeled dengue transmission along a US‐Mexico transect using a dynamic dengue transmission model that includes interacting vector ecology and epidemiological components. Model runs were performed for 5 cities in Sonora, Mexico and southern Arizona. Employing a Monte Carlo approach, we performed ensembles of several thousands of model simulations in order to resolve the model uncertainty arising from using different combinations of parameter values that are not well known. For cities with reported dengue case data, the top model simulations that best reproduced dengue case numbers were retained and their parameter values were extracted for comparison. These parameter values were used to run simulations in areas where dengue virus transmission does not occur or where dengue fever case data was unavailable. Additional model runs were performed to reveal how changes in climate or parameter values could alter transmission risk along the transect. The relative influence of climate variability and model parameters on dengue virus transmission is assessed to help public health workers prepare location specific infection prevention strategies.

Morin, Cory↗
DOE OSTI2024

Binary Quantum Control Optimization with Uncertain Hamiltonians

Optimizing the controls of quantum systems plays a crucial role in advancing quantum technologies. The time-varying noises in quantum systems and the widespread use of inhomogeneous quantum ensembles raise the need for high-quality quantum controls under uncertainties. In this paper, we consider a stochastic discrete optimization formulation of a discretized binary optimal quantum control problem involving Hamiltonians with predictable uncertainties. We propose a sample-based reformulation that optimizes both risk-neutral and risk-averse measurements of control policies, and solve these with two gradient-based algorithms using sum-up-rounding approaches. Furthermore, we discuss the differentiability of the objective function and prove upper bounds of the gaps between the optimal solutions to binary control problems and their continuous relaxations. We conduct numerical simulations on various sized problem instances based on two applications of quantum pulse optimization; we evaluate different strategies to mitigate the impact of uncertainties in quantum systems. In conclusion, we demonstrate that the controls of our stochastic optimization model achieve significantly higher quality and robustness compared with the controls of a deterministic model.

conditional value-at-risk (CVaR)↗
DOE OSTI2026

High-resolution modeling of indoor radon exposure with uncertainty quantification in Utah

Indoor radon accounts for 37% of population-level exposure to ionizing radiation in the United States. However, radon metrics are typically reported at coarse spatial scales, potentially obscuring meaningful local variation. We developed a high-resolution modeling framework to estimate indoor radon concentrations across Utah while explicitly quantifying predictive uncertainty. A total of 19,497 residential radon measurements collected between 2006 and 2017 were combined with environmental and housing characteristics and analyzed using a geospatial neural network that accommodates spatial dependence and nonlinear associations. Predictions were generated on a uniform hexagonal grid at 0.73 km2 resolution (H3 level 8). Out-of-sample predictions aggregated to the H3 level 8 grid showed good agreement with observed concentrations (Pearson r=0.64), while household-level predictions exhibited more moderate agreement (r=0.45). The model produced well-calibrated uncertainty estimates, with 24.1% of held-out observations exceeding the predicted 75th-percentile threshold. Maps of predicted radon concentrations and the probability of exceeding the U.S. EPA action level of 148 Bq/m3 (4 pCi/L) revealed substantial fine-scale spatial heterogeneity that was not apparent in conventional coarse-resolution summaries, with greater local variability observed in densely monitored urban counties than in sparsely sampled regions. High-resolution radon models that explicitly quantify uncertainty provide a useful framework for characterizing the spatial distribution of indoor radon and identifying areas of elevated exceedance risk. These findings highlight the value of fine-scale monitoring data and uncertainty-aware modeling approaches for radon exposure assessment, environmental risk characterization, and radon-related health research.

Wu, Yunhan [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000178842994)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Economic Valuation of Coccidioidomycosis (Valley Fever) Projections in the United States in Response to Climate Change

Coccidioidomycosis, or valley fever, is an infectious fungal disease currently endemic to the southwestern United States. Symptoms of valley fever range in severity from flu-like illness to severe morbidity and mortality. Warming temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns may cause the area of endemicity to expand northward throughout the western United States, putting more people at risk for contracting valley fever. This may increase the health and economic burdens from this disease. We developed an approach to describe the relationship between climate conditions and valley fever incidence using historical data and generated projections of future incidence in response to both climate change and population trends using the Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) framework developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. We also developed a method to estimate economic impacts of valley fever that is based on case counts. For our 2000–15 baseline time period, we estimated annual medical costs, lost income, and economic welfare losses for valley fever in the United States were 400,000 USD per case, and the annual average total cost was 3.9 billion USD per year. For a high greenhouse gas emission scenario and accounting for population growth, we found that total annual costs for valley fever may increase up to 164% by year 2050 and up to 380% by 2090. By the end of the twenty-first century, valley fever may cost 620,000 USD per case and the annual average total cost may reach $18.5 billion per year. This work contributes to the broader effort to monetize climate change–attributable damages in the United States.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Consequence analyses of sabotage-induced radiological releases in high-temperature helium-cooled prismatic microreactors

Here, this study analyzes the radiological dose consequences of sabotage-induced accidents at three high-temperature helium-cooled prismatic microreactors (HTPMs) with thermal power ratings of 1, 10, and 50 MWt. Each HTPM employs uranium oxycarbide tristructural isotropic fuel enriched to 19.75 wt% high-assay low-enriched uranium. Simulations were conducted to estimate reactor core inventory at the point of fuel discharge––when the effective multiplication factor reduced to less than 1––representing peak radionuclide inventory. Postulated sabotage scenarios leading to reactor shutdown were analyzed at two intervals: immediately post-shutdown (0 h) and 3 days after shutdown using the SCALE code for radionuclide inventories and the RASCAL tool for dose consequences. Results show that although HTPMs benefit from inherent safety features and robust fuel design, radiological consequences scale with reactor power because of increased source term inventories. Smaller microreactors exhibited proportionally lower dose consequences. To support the economic and regulatory feasibility of microreactor deployment, this study emphasizes the value of a risk-informed, performance-based approach, as supported by regulations like 10 CFR Parts 100 and 53 in the United States. Microreactor developers should perform site-specific assessments of potential sabotage or low-probability, high-consequence events, especially when considering minimal on-site or full off-site emergency response.

Consequence↗